Huntsman CORP Q3 FY2024 Earnings Call

Greetings and welcome to the Huntsman Corporation's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ivan Marcuse. Thank you. You may begin.

Thank you, Rob and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Huntsman's third quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Joining us on the call today are Peter Huntsman, Chairman, CEO and President and Phil Lister, Executive Vice President and CFO. Yesterday, November 4, 2024, after the U.S. equity markets closed, we released our earnings for the third quarter of 2024 via press release and posted to our website, huntsman.com. We also posted a set of slides and detailed commentary discussing the third quarter on our website. Peter Huntsman will provide some opening comments shortly and we will then move to the question-and-answer session for the remainder of the call. During the call, let me remind you that we may make statements about our projections or expectations for the future. All such statements are forward-looking statements and while they reflect our current expectations, they involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. You should review our filings with the SEC for more information regarding the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections or expectations. We do not plan on publicly updating or revising any forward-looking statements during the quarter. We will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss and free cash flow. You can find reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release, which has been posted to our website, huntsman.com. I'll now turn the call over to Peter Huntsman, Chairman and CEO.

Hi, Ivan. Thank you very much and thank you all for taking the time to join us this morning. We've got quite a few people online for questions. So, I am just going to be very brief. The third quarter ended about where we expected it to finish and we're now focused on the fourth quarter and year-end. But we expected the year to be better than it's shaping up to be. There are still a number of positives as we move from quarter three to quarter four at year-end. As we said to many of you during our investor conferences, an improvement in North American housing and construction will be the single most impactful change in our earnings. It is harder to see that interest rates are dropping and both U.S. Presidential candidates are making new housing a major part of their economic platform for improvement. We are hopeful that another rate cut between now and the end of the year will continue to improve the MDI growth we're still seeing today. In addition to falling interest rates over the past few quarters, we've seen a return to more traditional MDI growth that exceeds the rate of GDP growth. As we've said in the past quarters, we need to see demand growth improve and capacity utilization rates increase before we see meaningful margin expansion. The demand growth is moving in the right direction, but I was disappointed to see our recent Q4 MDI price increases get little traction with customers. We continue to see very low inventories across the board and rising demand will eventually support price increases and margin expansion. Additionally, we see a record amount of global chemical assets, especially in Europe, that are on the market. I would personally be surprised if all of these assets are sold. So, I imagine very few of these are actually making money. Given Europe's desire to rid itself of manufacturing, which I see reflected in its adherence to anti-growth energy and regulatory policies, I doubt the prospects will change anytime soon. We may well see a number of facilities closed due to a combination of regulatory and high-cost structures. Longer-term, I think there will be much-needed consolidation in a number of chemical products in Europe. Having returned recently from visiting government leaders, customers, and partners in Malaysia, China, Saudi Arabia, and Korea, I believe that these markets are seeing relatively low growth. But as they continue to sort out their conflicts and housing bubbles, we'll continue to see opportunities grow. 2025 should be a year of gradual improvement across Asia and the Middle East. We continue to look at all our production sites and examine our cost structures, supply agreements, and operating rates. For the end of the year, we will be initiating a further $50 million cost reduction program in our global polyurethanes business. This is in addition to the $280 million in costs we've taken out of the entire company over the past few years. We will continue to manage our way through challenges such as the recently settled Boeing strike, which will cost an estimated few million dollars in the fourth quarter. We'll also capitalize on growing EV battery opportunities, tightening insulation standards, and energy efficiency in home and building materials. While it is too early to say much about 2025, I believe lower interest rates, pent-up housing demand, Asian stimulus announcements, lower inventories, and greater political certainty in Europe and the U.S. will all work towards improving market conditions. With that, operator, why don't we open the line up for any questions?

Thank you. Our first question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you. Good morning. Peter, do you expect MDI assets in Europe to be closed in this iteration of restructurings?

I'm sorry, David. I didn't get the entire question. Do I expect?

Do you expect MDI assets to be closed in Europe in this iteration of restructurings and reviews?

Look, I simply have no idea what our competition is doing. As I look around the world, you look at the cost curve in Asia, I think given the size and the relatively recent construction of the capacities of MDI in Asia, there's a relatively flat cost curve in Asia. I think Wanhua has an advantage just simply because of the scale and integration that they enjoy. But it's a pretty flat cost curve. I think it's pretty similar in the U.S., where you have a handful of players that all have about the same size facility, single-site locations and so forth. Europe continues to operate multiple smaller facilities across multiple countries. And as I look at that and you consider the raw material costs, energy costs, transportation costs, regulatory costs, everything else across Europe, I'd be very surprised if we're sitting here a year or two from now and all of those particularly, the smaller non-integrated facilities are still operating. But again, I just look at that on a cost curve, U.S. versus Asia versus Europe, and certainly Europe is the outlier. But again, I haven't had any idea what goes on in the competition.

Very good. And just on your new restructuring program in Polyurethanes, $50 million. Can you detail the functions and regions, where that cost is being removed from?

Yes. Most of that is going to be in Europe. It will be centered around our automotive and construction. We will be giving some more detail about this during our fourth quarter call in a couple of months. But safe to say, this will be about a $50 million cost savings over the next few years. The majority of this ought to be seen on a run rate basis by the end of next year. And the cost, typically when you're looking at these sorts of programs, it pretty much costs you the same as the savings. So, there's about a one-year give or take a quarter payback on this. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks very much. In the quarter, you received a dividend of $35 million related to the SLIC China JV acquisition. I take it that went through cash flow from operations, and are there any more dividends to come from that source?

Yes. Thanks for the question, Jeff. Correct. $35 million from the liquidation of the Chinese joint venture; you recall, we did that restructuring in the first quarter of this year. We're now moving through the liquidation process. And during the course, we liquidate about $65 million $35 million of that can be recorded as a dividend, which impacts free cash flow of the dividend, which is over and above or below the amount of net income that we've received over the lifetime of the JV, $30 million was simply capital reinjection. There's about RMB 300 million left to liquidate out of that JV. We expect that to occur during 2025. None of that will be recorded as a dividend. It can't be for accounting purposes; and therefore, it wouldn't impact free cash flow.

Can you describe your volume expectations in MDI for the fourth quarter in general and by region?

I think that as we look at this, we'll see a seasonal decline that's usually about 15% to 20% depending on year-end inventory stock and so forth. Jeff, I am not trying to evade a direct answer on this, but typically in the middle of November, in the next week or two, we'll start to see just how much people are trying to cut inventories and try to preserve working capital and so forth. As you start to see this in the last four to six weeks of the year, people will, in some cases, stop ordering, and they will take their inventories down. Now, I believe that inventories are anecdotally, as you look across MDI, inventories are very low. But in some regions of the world, growth demand is pretty anemic as well. So, I think that we'll see what we typically see during seasonality, which is on a global basis anywhere from 10% to 15%.

Our next question comes from Patrick Cunningham with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. Good morning. So, you mentioned MDI price increases were rebuffed in Q4 2024. What are your expectations for prices by region in Q4 and what are you reflecting in terms of raw material declines?

Well, I think that as we look at pricing for MDI in Q4, it's looking pretty flat. I mean, as we look at some of the spot markets, there's a little bit of upward pressure in China. But as I look at the spot prices in Europe and the U.S., it fits flat to down a little bit in tracking the cost of benzene. So, I think we will pick up a little bit of benefit from benzene, but that will not wholly, but partially be offset by flat pricing and probably higher natural gas prices.

Very helpful. And then in Performance Products, you cited sales volume increases in construction, coatings, and adhesives. Was this in line with your expectations? Or are you outperforming the market here? Or is this mostly the absence of destocking?

I think in Performance Products, the good side about that business is its margins on a per-pound basis remain fairly strong. Our biggest issue there is around demand. And you typically see again, seasonality in that business just like you do in other businesses. So, I'm hopeful that we'll start to see the demand start coming back after the Chinese New Year in particular. But it will be in line with the typical seasonality that we see.

Our next question comes from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Peter, for polyurethane, you are getting volume growth. The earnings leverage or EBITDA leverage just doesn't seem to be kicking in yet. What level of volume or sales do you think you need to see to start seeing the appropriate leverage for that business going forward?

It's a great question that we often consider. In this market, we start gaining leverage when capacity utilization reaches the high-80s. However, which specific segment needs to reach that level remains to be seen. Looking globally, I think operating rates are likely around the mid-80% to 87% or 88%. If we keep witnessing growth in demand and recovery in MDI, similar to what we've experienced this past year, we should expect some expansion in pricing and margins early in 2025. This is contingent upon sustained demand growth, especially in North America related to housing. We're recovering from a very low point compared to last year. I am encouraged by the demand I’ve observed for MDI in 2024, but we need to continue to recover from the challenges faced at the end of 2022 and throughout 2023. Additionally, we've seen new capacity being added to the market, which offsets these factors as we approach 2025. I'm optimistic that after the Chinese New Year and as we enter the construction season in early 2025, we will see a significant increase in orders around February and March.

Great. And as a quick follow-up on 2025. I know it's a little bit early to give specific outlook. A lot of the consultants do see margin expanding quite a bit potentially. Do you sort of agree with that cadence? And what type of EBITDA potential or power do you think you should see in polyurethanes if things pick up next year?

I think, again, I would agree with that. I mean, as we talk about margin expansion for 2025, a lot of that's going to be predicated again, about what sort of demand we see in North America housing. China, we have got to see consumer confidence return and Europe just needs some sort of return to an element of sanity when it comes to a manufacturing policy around energy and so forth. We may well see an improvement in North America, because of housing, and Asia, because of consumer demand. Europe continues to lag behind. I do believe fundamentally that we are seeing a lot of capacity utilization that traditionally has been European-based, particularly in automotive and probably a couple of other materials that are moving to the U.S., Middle East, or Asia. So, I think you are seeing a global dislocation from Europe to other regions. And so, you might actually see an improvement take place in North America and Asia before you do Europe. So, I'm not sure that it's necessarily going to be an evenly distributed improvement in all regions simultaneously as we've seen in the past.

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Your prepared comments on autos, well, certainly, it wasn't what you expected. You did seem to grow in the third quarter and you had stable EU volumes. And it also looked like autos were better for you in polyurethanes versus advanced materials. So, I wonder if you could just comment on all that, particularly the EU piece given how weak that market seems to be and what the sort of sequential outlook is into Q4 and maybe a bit into 2025, to the extent you have a view?

Yes. Vincent, thanks for the question. So also, it was 3% up year-on-year as you indicate. It was down 6% sequentially. So, we did see a little bit of a slowing during the quarter. If you break down our exposure around the world for auto, which is about 15% of our portfolio, about 40% is into Asia and that's been relatively strong and relatively strong in our polyurethanes division for us. About 30% into Europe, that slowed a little and then 20% into North America and 10% rest of the world. North America definitely did come off as we went through the third quarter and as we head into the fourth quarter here. I mean, look, we look at the numbers. We had 90 million production builds last year in 2023. I think most of the forecast were about 88 million for this year. So, a little bit down overall. Generally, we're agnostic to whether it's ICE, whether it's PEV, or whether it's hybrid, and we're able to pick up sales in across either platform. But in general, a little bit of a slowdown, but in general, pretty good for us in Asia.

And Peter, if I could just follow-up, I'd be curious to get your view on interest rates. I think we all want them to come down. But so far, we haven't seen as much help on the back end of the curve, I think, as people would hope for. So, as you look into 2025, if we get into a situation, where maybe the front end comes down a lot more than the back end of the curve, where do you think that helps you and where do you think that maybe slows down the pace of recovery?

The economy must perform well in two key areas: consumer confidence and consumer spending, which have been the main drivers of growth for the U.S. economy. While there are many factors influencing the economy, I believe that the U.S. consumer stands out compared to Europe and Asia. Consumers continue to spend, but mainly on smaller items associated with consumer confidence, rather than larger purchases like homes and vehicles, particularly as highlighted in the third quarter. Therefore, with the potential for interest rates to decrease, it is important to keep the U.S. consumer engaged and spending. Most importantly for our company, lower mortgage rates are essential to boost housing demand.

Our next question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research. Please proceed with your question.

Thank you and good morning. Peter, I saw a news item recently about a chemical company doing a capacity expansion of non-PU-based insulation materials, and they're targeting the European market. And the release read positively about future demand for insulating materials in Europe. Now obviously, as I read the prepared remarks and listened to you so far, it didn't seem like there was much to get excited about insulating materials in Europe, which obviously would be very helpful for you. What's your take on that market and when might we see a recovery there?

To be honest with you, I'm rather frustrated with Europe, as you could probably tell, Frank. In one of the areas, where you would think with higher energy prices, Europe would be one of the most proactive areas on legislating construction materials and insulation standards. In reality, virtually every state in the United States has a higher and tougher energy conservation standard than most European countries do. So Europe, when they get their act together, they really want to start looking at how do you conserve as much as and put that into an active energy policy. I believe there is some real upside there. I think that we're sitting in a position. We have blending facilities in Europe. We can make polyurethane spray foam materials. We don't export it from the U.S. We can make it there. We can utilize our own technologies and our own polyols and so forth. And we've got a real opportunity in Europe. But without the correct incentives and regulatory environment, I don't think you'll see the sort of growth in Europe that we've been able to see in the U.S.

Okay. Thank you. Very helpful. And in the prepared remarks, there were also comments about looking at possible M&A in Advanced Materials. And given obviously, your leverage is kind of elevated, but that's really more so about the kind of the trough or bottoming levels of EBITDA. But given your stock is close to yielding 5%, what are your thoughts on buybacks?

I'd have to fill well. Look, first of all, it's a decision that the Board would be making. But my recommendation to the Board is, I'd have to feel a little bit more confident about free cash flow coming in and preserving that free cash flow. And right now, I want to make sure that we preserve the dividend. And I speak on behalf of the Board saying this, we will preserve the dividend, we keep a strong balance sheet, we stay focused on our investment grade ratings. And then when we see an improvement in free cash flow, we'll divvy that up between the potential of share buybacks or M&A.

Our next question comes from Josh Spector with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, hi, good morning. I was curious on Europe, the deal that's kind of apparent between Covestro and ADNOC kind of has them keeping capacity intact in Europe. Is that an impediment to Europe improving for the MDI market for Huntsman?

I’m not trying to avoid answering, but I really don't know what ADNOC and Covestro are planning. I assume that between signing and closing, they won’t want to do anything that might upset regulators and labor unions. So, I think it’s best to maintain the current situation, but that’s just my speculation. In general, I would prefer to see less capacity rather than more, all else being equal, but I have no insight into their plans.

Yes, no problem. I think I just thought that there was something where a few years after that would close something had to stay in place, but I'll move on. I guess maybe, sticking with Europe in a different vein, it's just when you've talked about polyurethanes and your earnings power in the past, I think you said when utilization rates are higher, you think maybe a mid teens margin is what you can achieve. I guess with your commentary around demand in the U.S. and China versus Europe, it seems like Europe would probably lag and also costs are higher. So, I guess the question is, can you achieve that framework if Europe costs stay higher or maybe there isn't any industrial change? Would you have a different answer around Huntsman's earnings power?

I believe that any losses in Europe can be compensated by gains in Asia and North America. If Europe maintains its current trajectory, it will likely face higher costs compared to the Americas and Asia. Should we see an increase in demand, especially downstream, our excess splitting capacity in North America and China may allow us to boost production in those areas. This could enable us to earn more per pound and mitigate any uncompetitive structure present in Europe. However, until we see the market realities, pricing, and global trade take shape, I can only speculate. Fundamentally, I don't think there has been a significant change in those dynamics.

Our next question comes from Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Peter, I wanted to ask you about pricing in MDI. In your prepared comments, you mentioned that you don’t have much exposure to spot pricing. However, I remember that traditionally, you also have limited exposure to contracts since a significant portion of your business is tied to raw materials pass-through. Can you explain the current state of your leverage to benchmark contract pricing for MDI that we can observe in North America?

Yes. I think, well, I'll just touch on all three regions. So, I consider, and I don't want to oversimplify this, so forgive me. But let's just put it in kind of three buckets. One is, how much is just spot and that's what you oftentimes will read in ISIS or these sorts of publications. The other one is going to be around formula pricing. And the other one around, I would say, variable pricing, which is going to be MDI is more than just three buckets of pricing. That variable pricing depending on if it's pure MDI or if it's a formulated product or whatever, it's going to be all over the place. So, if you look at spot materials, it's typically around 10% Europe, 10% Europe and about 40% in China. If you look at formula pricing, it's around 20% of our total volume globally. That's going to be predominantly in North America, and China; it will be lesser than that. And then that third bucket on the variable side, that's what's coming out of the splitter, for the most part or into formulations or into pure MDI. That pricing is going to be on a contract. It's going to be on a customer-by-customer. Very little of that is going to be throughput pricing, and that's going to be on a negotiated basis customer to customer. So, that's kind of the three buckets. I do think people have a tendency probably to read too much into published pricing. I think it's probably a good macro indicator. But you just got to remember that MDI, unlike ethylene, benzene, or some of the other chemicals that are traded, the pricing of which is regional, and it is all over the place.

Thanks. Very helpful, Peter. In your automotive polyurethanes business, I mean, it appears that European OEMs are losing share. These are some traditionally some of your best customers, right, biggest customers in PU. How are you addressing this sort of sea change in the auto world? How are you changing your strategy in terms of going after the emerging OEMs in China and elsewhere?

Fortunately, we have very strong regional platforms in the U.S., Europe, and Asia that are getting increasingly robust. Four to five years ago, we made more money in European auto than in the other two regions combined. Today, Asia has taken that lead. Our relationships in Asia span from Hyundai in Korea to BYD in China, covering traditional applications like seating and expanding into new areas such as EVs and sound insulation materials for batteries. We earn more in Asia, which accounts for 40% of our global automotive business, than we do in all other regions combined. Our automotive business remains stable, but we recognize there are rapid changes happening, especially between ICE and EV technologies across different regions. Global trade will continue to shift quickly, particularly regarding the Chinese EV markets in Latin America. We are well-equipped to address both EV and ICE markets as well as the regional dynamics, and we will maintain this approach going forward.

Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. Thank you very much. So firstly, you mentioned your splitter before on the contract-by-contract basis. I believe earlier in the year you said that the new Geismar splitter wasn't really adding any EBITDA so far. So, where do we stand right now? Has it started contributing? And if not, why is that and what should we expect for 2025 on the splitter?

Yes, Sal, so obviously, both the splitter investment, but at Geismar, what really needs to happen to get the full benefits of that splitter is a return from a consumer perspective on areas such as furniture. Auto needs to be quite a bit stronger in North America as well. And so, as our deep and coating, some of which ends up on the consumer side. And that really needs to be a lot stronger in order to benefit substantially from that splitter investment. We still expect that to happen over time. That's not the issue. It's all around timing. It's all around the consumer confidence that Peter spoke about. If you think about next year, maybe $10 million to $15 million year-on-year benefit. But that's really dependent upon how our furniture market develops, how automotive develops, as well as how our adhesives and coatings develop.

Okay, perfect. I also wanted to inquire about the Chinese end market. It seems like there is a stock and new stimulus measures in place, but they don't appear to directly impact the new housing market. Instead, it looks like the focus is on encouraging new construction to enhance the prices of existing homes. With this in mind, can you discuss your MDI and polyurethanes business in that region and how it compares to your operations in the U.S. and Europe?

In China, we are witnessing a rapidly growing automotive market, which benefits us. Our presence in residential housing is relatively small, but it's a market that is expanding for us. On the insulation and building material fronts, consumer spending in China has been sluggish. We also have significant sales in large infrastructure projects. This includes central heating, insulation, road maintenance, pipeline maintenance, and electrical infrastructure development, alongside other areas beyond polyurethanes. As we observe these major projects across China, we continue to see strong demand. Infrastructure spending and the automotive sector are performing well for us in Asia. We are experiencing positive growth in the Asian markets, including adhesives, coatings, and elastomers. Looking ahead to 2025, we anticipate a potential recovery in the housing market in China, which could stimulate consumer spending on furniture, appliances, and more, creating a ripple effect. However, as I mentioned earlier, this recovery is expected to be gradual and slow in China.

Our next question comes from John Roberts with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks, Peter. Since it's Election Day, do you think Trump versus Harris win will have any impact on Huntsman?

No, not really. And as I look, it's definitely going to be Donald Trump versus Donald Trump. I mean, I think 80% of the people voting are probably either voting for or against Donald Trump. So, it will really be interesting to see which Donald Trump wins or loses the election. But as you kind of come out, I think both candidates, when you really look at it, have pretty similar views that housing needs to be something that is going to be a major catalyst to keep the U.S. economy going in 2025 and beyond. Tariffs and trade, surprisingly, as much as the rhetoric that's been going along both lines, Trump put in a number of tariffs. And I'm not sure that Biden changed any of those tariffs over the last four years. And energy conservation is probably going to be very high on both of their lists. So, I think housing tariffs, energy conservation probably pretty common between the two. I think there's a split on obviously regulation and how the Chevron ruling and so forth how that actually impacts our industry corporate taxes, the IRA and carbon tax and so forth. There are some real differences on that. And unfortunately, I don't think either candidate is beginning to address the £900 gorilla in the room, which is our national debt, which is for the first time exceeding our GDP. And that is in spite of the GDP growing as rapidly as it has in the last couple of years. So, I don't see either one of them materially changing the outcome of our business plan here over the course of the next year or so.

Okay. And then maybe, a little bit more lower level question. But have you set your turnaround plans yet for 2025?

I believe we currently have the cluster turnaround scheduled for the end of the first quarter. This involves several large chemical plants in Rotterdam that all need to shut down and start up in a specific sequence. We may experience record maintenance timing, but any minor issue, like a small pipeline leak, could cause delays. So, we are planning for this turnaround at the end of the first quarter of next year.

Our next question comes from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Please proceed with your question.

Good morning, Peter and Phil. Not to bore you guys, but just wanted to go back to a bunch of the questions that were asked about the European restructurings going on, assets being put up for sale, and the like. I mean, look, one of the virtues obviously of the polyurethane sort of story has been, it's obviously an oligopoly, right? And if I heard your comments correctly, it sounds as if you are leaning towards at least some of these assets being permanently shut down. So, my question I guess is that looking at the Covestro deal and I obviously understand a different company and the like, you have no idea what ADNOC is thinking. But I mean, how do you think about players like ADNOC, other sort of state players or Asian players coming out, buying up those assets and fragmenting an otherwise relatively consolidated industry?

It's a very good question and quite complex. In many ways, I'm not sure that ADNOC really alters the dynamics. Essentially, it's just a name change from Covestro to ADNOC. If they choose to establish operations in the Middle East or construct a new facility, it could take anywhere from six to eight years to complete, even for an expansion at an existing site, due to the challenges in large-scale chemical production. Therefore, unless there is a significant fragmentation within a company, I don't believe that the ADNOC-Covestro transaction fundamentally changes those dynamics.

Fair enough. Fair enough. And a question around inventories, obviously, the last couple of years since corrugate have been quite complex. I'm just trying to sort of figure out how one should think about a potential inventory restocking. I mean going back to the COVID times; it seems demand patterns change dramatically as a result of lockdowns and the like. But it also seems now corporate's appetite for holding inventory has changed as well. So, how does one think about a restock in light of some of these demand sort of pulls and tugs vis-à-vis maybe, potentially companies sort of thought processes about sort of keeping inventories lean and maybe, sort of moving in that direction? I mean, how does one think about a potential restock with all these sort of moving parts?

We experienced a significant shift as we emerged from the peak of COVID-19. The global supply chain was heavily disrupted in various regions. During that time, capital was relatively inexpensive, and companies accumulated large inventories while demand remained strong. People assumed this trend would continue indefinitely. However, the current environment is drastically different. Capital has become a priority, and it is costly. Companies are hesitant to invest in excessive inventory or tie up capital. Demand appears to be weak in many parts of the world, so maintaining high inventory levels doesn’t make sense. Until I observe an increase in demand, there’s no justification for restocking. Additionally, despite conflicts in the Middle East, energy prices have remained quite stable over the past year, without significant market volatility. Therefore, until there is real demand in specific regions, widespread restocking is unlikely. However, I predict that if demand does increase, the chemical industry will require additional time to ramp up supplies. Should interest rates decrease and housing markets in North America surge, the supply chains typically take one to two quarters to respond. This lag often leads to prices that normally would rise gradually over four to five quarters experiencing sharp increases in just one or two quarters. There tends to be a disconnect between the speed of restocking and panic buying and the actual factors that trigger those actions.

Our next question comes from Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Yes. Thank you and good morning. Peter, can you speak to how you see international trade flows today in MDI and perhaps maleic anhydride and how they might evolve if tariffs were to escalate in that scenario bilaterally between?

Yes. I think they'll probably remain pretty much the way they are today. The U.S. has about a 30% tariff, give or take a few points on MDI and maleic and a number of other products. And so, those people that are importing in today, I don't see tariffs going up through the roof. I don't see them disappearing or necessarily coming off, depending on some recently filed cases in certain products and so forth, you might see them go up a bit. But largely with the exception of Wanhua in China that has all the production in China, the exception of a single European site, they're obviously moving product around the world. They have for years and they'll continue to do so. But the trade flows from most of the producers of MDI that have regional production, I see that as continuing and there's not a great deal of trade flow in MDI from one region to the next. I would say the same is probably true with maleic and with most of the other products we produce. I would say the exception of that with maleic would be what you see in China, there is quite a lot of overcapacity in China for maleic. That was supposed to be the raw material for a biodegradable plastic that's coming on stream a little bit slower than I think most people anticipated. But nonetheless, some of that maleic is spilling over in Europe. Other than that, I think most products are staying within region.

Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed with your question.

Hi. Good morning. You mentioned some new business wins in North America polyurethanes. I was wondering, I guess if you can speak to specifically what markets those are occurring in? And if they are in construction, can you maybe just talk about your competitive position within construction and insulation markets? Has that improved compared to a few years ago? Maybe, also wrap in an update on spray foam insulation adoption today versus a few years ago? Thank you.

Yes. In construction, it's mostly, and I would say, kind of three buckets, if you will. One is going to be what we see in the OSB into the wood market that goes into construction, what we see in insulation going into construction. I think in both of those positions, we have very stable positions and positions, where we're not just selling molecules, but we're also selling solutions to the customers. The third area, I would say, would also be in furniture and appliances and so forth. While we don't supply a lot of material that goes into appliances and some of the low-end furniture applications, others do. And that sucks a lot of MDI out of the market that goes into that kind of third bucket of construction. Oftentimes, when we focus on construction, we're talking about OSB. But construction and housing also takes up a lot of MDI in other areas that aren't necessarily big markets for Huntsman but are for others. And it's a good drain for the product generally.

All right. And then within Performance Products, can you talk a little bit or give us an update on the Performance Amines capacity expansion? I believe there are two projects going on, one for semiconductor applications and the other one in polyurethane catalyst. Are those in qualification right now and you guys are working to get some off take in place? Just wondering when we can expect to see some commercial contribution from those two projects?

We're hoping to have the polyurethane catalyst business and the amines expansion in PETRODO, Hungary. We believe that project should be done around year-end and then you're looking for a couple of months for qualifying those materials to be going into various applications and so forth. And we are completed with our other performance products expansion that's going to ULTRAPURE solvents and amine products that will be going into the cleaning and the treatment of chip production. And we're in qualifying phases right now with those materials. That project is done, is operating and as we get those products qualified, there's not a given time on that. Usually, it's anywhere from three months to nine months on those and we started that process this past summer. So, I would say early next year that we ought to start seeing some revenues coming in from the ULTRAPURE amines production.

Our next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I hope you're doing well. I guess I just wanted to ask a little bit more about what you see in '25. So, both first half and second half of '24, you're around $200 million or so of EBITDA in that range, maybe a little bit higher. But as you look into '25, I mean, would you say that you took extra inventory out in Q4 or parts of '24, it looks like you're kind of lean and ready to really grow substantially in a recovery scenario? Or do you see '25 kind of evolving similar to what you saw in '24? We have seen some emerging weakness in auto, industrial and aero. And so, I'm just wondering if you would require more destocking in certain of those areas or your customers would or if you're more poised for to really deleverage the recovery? Thanks.

Yes. I think as we look at the overall business today, our inventory is low and they're going to be low and lean going into 2025. And I just don't think it's our responsibility to be building up inventory to cushion for our customers. We'll have sufficient product to supply them. But at the same time, I'm going to tie up our capital and hoping that they eventually come about to buy the materials. As we look at automotive, again, I think that we'll probably see a pretty flat U.S., Europe sort of environment. And I think that we're going to continue to see strong demand coming out of Asia and China in particular, and the rest of the world. So, much of this is again, predicated upon what I see as the major drivers. North America is going to be around housing. China, the areas, where you can see material growth, it's going to affect our bottom line and that's going to be around housing in North America. It's going to be around consumer confidence in China. And eventually, it's going to see a resurgence of European GDP and European spending just across the board. And again, I see more opportunities for that to happen. There seems to be a pent-up demand right now, particularly in housing in North America, as many people have been speculating about this now for the last couple of years. And I would say the same also with China. Since the COVID lockdowns have ended in China, we really haven't seen consumer confidence and consumer spending return to China. And I think there's quite a bit of catalyst and opportunity for growth on that. But as we go into 2025, we're going to be taking costs out of our business. We're going to have low inventories, and we're going to be running very lean.

And if I could just clarify, so the move from Q3, around $130 million of EBITDA down to $75 million at the midpoint for Q4, how much of that would you characterize? Is that mostly seasonality or is there some incremental demand weakness in there as well, or would you say that's mostly seasonality? And are there any related inventory clearing out charges embedded in there as well?

Yes, there will be some inventory charges in that figure that reflect the reversals we experienced in Q3. However, much of this will be due to seasonal factors and typical seasonal slowdowns. If we do not experience that seasonal slow down, there could be some potential upside. Generally, seasonal slowdowns are common in the fourth quarter, with only a few exceptions in the past 15 years. Considering our current position, we feel quite confident about our fourth quarter projections. As we approach the end of the year, we observe the stimulus initiatives in China and the rate cuts related to housing, which I mentioned earlier. Additionally, MDI capacity utilization is continuing to improve, leading me to feel more optimistic than pessimistic as we head into 2025. The cost measures we implemented over the past year mean our SG&A remains flat despite facing record inflation over the last 12 to 18 months. Our balance sheet remains very strong, and viewing these positive factors heading into 2025, I feel significantly more optimistic than pessimistic.

And operator, why don't we take one more question because I think we're coming to the top of the hour here.

Absolutely. And that question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Hey, this is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. Thank you for fitting me in for a second here. So, I was seeing that the Boeing strike just ended and I think you mentioned that, that strike was a $3 million to $4 million EBITDA headwind in the quarter. So, if it ends today or ends within the next couple of days, does that provide upside? Or how does that kind of flow through to you guys for Q4 and beyond?

I would like to see it have an immediate impact. However, the speed at which a plane can be produced is dependent on the slowest component arriving. During tours of Airbus, Boeing, and Chinese manufacturers, we observed that a significant amount of our inventory is held up in components, such as wings, waiting to be assembled onto planes. Delays are occurring because of small parts, like a $50 fastener, that are necessary for installation. Given the ongoing issues in the aerospace supply chain, where more airplane assembly is being outsourced, I don't anticipate a quick return to normalcy within the next week or two. It may take until the end of the year for operations to stabilize. This doesn't reflect on Boeing's production plans specifically, but I believe that as Boeing ramps up activities, our demand will also increase. However, the timing suggests that by the time we feel that demand increase, it will likely be closer to year-end rather than immediate.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.