Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Q2 FY2022 Earnings Call

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Kinsale's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs, and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including their 2021 annual report on Form 10-K which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its second quarter results. Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release which is available at the company's website. I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's President and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, operator and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our second quarter conference call. Bryan Petrucelli, Kinsale's Chief Financial Officer, and Brian Haney, Kinsale's Chief Operating Officer, are with me on the call this morning. As usual, we will each make a few comments and then move on to any questions you may have. Kinsale's operating earnings for the second quarter 2022 increased by 51% over the second quarter 2021 and gross written premium was up 43% for the quarter. The company posted a 77% combined ratio for the quarter and an annualized operating return on equity of 24.6% for the first six months of the year. This quarter's performance is similar to our experience over the last couple of years, where we have been able to raise rates to our customers above loss cost trend and at the same time, grow our premium volume at a remarkable level. This multiyear combination of profit margin expansion with outsized premium growth is extraordinary. It's allowing us to deliver better returns while continuing to build a strong balance sheet, especially with regard to loss reserves. Although there is much uncertainty in the economy today, especially with inflation, Kinsale stockholders should be confident that our reserves are conservatively positioned and we're likely to develop favorably and unfavorably in the years ahead. We attribute this combination of higher insurance rates and rapid growth to two powerful drivers. First, a dislocated P&C marketplace, wherein weaker competitors continue to struggle, with sufficient loss reserves, inadequate margins, high costs, legacy software, remote work models, general inflation, etc. And secondly, our own unique business model, wherein we target the small account E&S market, maintain absolute control over our underwriting and claim handling and operate with a technology-enabled expense advantage over high-cost competitors. We continue to have an optimistic outlook toward growth in 2022 and 2023 but we also continue to expect the broad P&C marketplace to gradually return to a normal level of competition beyond that, with an expected Kinsale growth rate in the low double-digit range in lieu of the 43% we saw this past quarter. Given the competitive advantages of the Kinsale model, especially our expense advantage, we do expect to continue to grow and take market share from competitors for the foreseeable future, in both hard and soft markets and to deliver best-in-class margins at the same time. As we have said many times over the years, disciplined underwriting and low cost is an endgame winner every time. I'll now turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli.

Thanks, Mike. Again, just another really strong quarter from an operating income perspective with a 43% increase in gross written premiums and a 51% increase in operating earnings for all the reasons that Mike just mentioned, including higher rates and our superior business model. We reported net income of $27.1 million for the second quarter of 2022, down from $35.6 million last year as a result of unrealized losses on equity securities, driven by the drawdown in the equity markets during the quarter. As mentioned, net operating earnings which excludes the impact from fluctuations in equity values did increase by approximately 51%, up to $44.4 million from $29.4 million in the second quarter of last year. The company generated underwriting income of $44 million and a combined ratio of slightly less than 77% for the quarter compared to $29 million and 79% last year. The combined ratio for the second quarter of 2022 included five points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development compared to 6.6 points last year. Cat losses were negligible this quarter compared to 2.1 points last year. And our operating return on equity was approximately 25% for the year and again, ahead of our mid-teens guidance. Book value did decrease by 4.7% in the quarter primarily as a result of unrealized losses on our fixed income securities resulting from higher interest rates. The company continues to generate strong positive operating cash flows which gives us the ability to hold these securities to maturity and the higher interest rate environment allows us to invest new money at better yields. Just as a point of clarity there, the new money yields averaged about 3.84% during the quarter. Net investment income increased by 43% over the second quarter last year, up to $10.6 million from $7.4 million last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio. Annualized gross investment returns, excluding cash and cash equivalents, were 2.6% for both this year and last. Diluted operating earnings per share was $1.92 per share for the quarter compared to $1.28 per share last year. Lastly, I just wanted to comment briefly on the debt transaction that closed last week. We entered into a 12-year $125 million, 5.15% fixed rate note which we used to primarily fund surplus at the insurance company level and pay down the balance on our revolving credit agreement. Concurrently, we amended our existing revolving credit agreement to extend the maturity date and to increase the limit from $50 million to $100 million. With that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney.

Thanks, Brian. As mentioned earlier, premium grew 43% in the second quarter, down slightly from 45% in the first quarter. Overall, the E&S market remains favorable with strong growth across our product lines. In particular, the property market continues to be hard, especially property accounts with material catastrophe exposure. We are also seeing significant growth in our health care, general casualty and energy divisions. Submission growth continues to be strong, right around 20%, up from the high teens growth rate in the first quarter and mid-teens in 2021. Exposure bases are going up, driven by economic activity and by inflation. We saw rates up in the low double digits in the aggregate during the second quarter, consistent with the first quarter and consistent with 2021. We are continuing to keep an eye on inflation. We feel we're in a good position because we've been achieving rate increases ahead of loss cost for several years now. These increases combined with our strategy of conservative reserving further protect the company from the threat of inflation than some of our peers may be more exposed to. The market conditions are generally favorable across the board. We see some limited pockets of overly aggressive behavior here and there, usually on the part of start-up MGAs, especially ones focused on big ticket items, but by and large, the market is functioning rationally. Our IT department continues to make steady incremental improvements in our systems which enable us to process business faster and at a lower cost. Our technology is a key differentiator for us and that gives us a significant competitive advantage. And across the company, we continue to focus on continuous improvement in all areas so that we sustain our advantage in the market, providing best-in-class customer service and generating best-in-class returns for our investors. Overall, a good quarter and we are happy with the results. And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're now ready for questions.

Your first question is from Mark Hughes with Truist.

Brian, you talked about 20% submission growth in the second quarter. Did you notice any change in the trajectory throughout the quarter, month to month?

Other than that it slightly accelerated from the previous quarter. That's a short answer now, just...

I'm sorry, what was your last comment there?

The short answer is, not really. It was just a slight acceleration from the previous quarter. So there's no interesting trends in the month-by-month numbers.

And keep in mind, Mark, there's always a little bit of variability in those numbers quarter-to-quarter.

Yes. Sure. And then anything you see from an exposure standpoint that would make you say the economy is slowing down, anything in your small account market that is catching your attention?

Nothing we've noticed yet.

I mean we see the headlines but I mean the numbers for our quarter were pretty strong and pretty consistent with what we've seen in the last couple of years.

Yes. Okay. And then, Bryan, on the expense ratio, this is pretty good. I don't know whether this is the high watermark. Well, I guess, the third quarter last year was slightly lower, but how do you feel the expense ratio will trend on a go-forward basis? Is this a good kind of starting point?

I think it is, Mark. Again, it does bounce around quarter-to-quarter a little bit. However, we're continuing to see some modest economies of scale with the earned premium increasing. But I think what you're seeing here and I think if you look at it on an annual basis, that's probably the best way to look at it.

And then Mike, I'd be interested in just a few more thoughts on what you think about the cycle here. Obviously, this has been going on for quite some time. It sounds like you're optimistic through this year and into 2023. You gave some points about weaker competitors continuing to struggle but any more thoughts on the cycle, the durability of it? What's driving it would be interesting.

Mark, we don't have any special insight into where the market is heading over the next year. We're basing our understanding on current trends in submission growth, rate increases, and hit ratios on business. Overall, this gives us a sense of optimism in the near term. However, we anticipate that the market will eventually stabilize, and we're prepared for that. The key point I want to convey is that our business model, which focuses not only on excess and surplus lines but also on smaller accounts within that market, still faces competition, but we are seeing a slight decrease in competitive intensity during a soft market. With our expense advantages, we feel confident in our ability to compete in both hard and soft market conditions. So, while we are optimistic in the near term, we believe the market will normalize in the longer term.

Your next question is from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

I wonder if you could first discuss your significant rate increases, which are still in the low-digit double digits and outpacing loss cost trends. Can you provide more detail on your loss cost trends? Where do they currently stand, where have they been, and how are you approaching them? You're still achieving core margin expansion, so any additional insights on the relationship between rate and loss trends would be appreciated.

I would say that the loss cost trends that we use prospectively today average about 8%. They vary pretty widely by statutory line of business, right? So that's kind of a weighted average across our portfolio. There's a significant premium trend that we get because most of our business is priced on things like revenue or payroll that in and of itself is being inflated, right? I think the way we generally view it is that retrospectively, premium trend largely offset loss cost trend, maybe it's a point or two shy. But in general, if we're getting a low double-digit nominal rate increase across our portfolio, the real rate increase might lag by a couple of points below that. So in general, we're getting very significant real rate increases but not just now, we've been getting them over the last several years. So it's a "rate on rate on rate on rate effect," and I think that goes a long way to explaining why the margins are as compelling as they are.

Okay. That's definitely helpful. And it sounds like pricing is still holding up as well across the book. The next question I wanted to ask was just on the terms and conditions is something that you've talked about before, kind of working in your favor over the past year. Wondering if you can give an update on kind of what you're seeing in terms of limits and deductibles? Whether you've seen any shifts in that over the past year or so, anything that kind of sticks out? And any change in customer behavior as well due to the economy?

We are definitely noticing a trend where carriers are reducing the limits they offer. We have also made similar adjustments to align with the market. This shift has created opportunities for us because when limits decrease, customers who still want the same overall coverage amount have to work with more carriers. However, we haven't observed a significant trend of insurers increasing their limits. In some instances, particularly in the more challenging segments of the market, affordability is becoming a concern, and at some point, customers may not be able to afford the limits they previously purchased. This is impacting their behavior. Overall, I would say that limits have decreased, deductibles, especially for property exposures, are increasing, and the terms and conditions are becoming stricter.

Okay, that's good. You mentioned dislocation, which we saw a lot in 2021. Is it typically in the same areas, pockets, and among the same competitors, or has that changed significantly over the past years? I know you mentioned some new start-ups. Can you share more about the dislocation? It seems like dislocation might be lessening, but I’m unsure if you’re observing something different.

Yes. I want to emphasize that the Property and Casualty market is vast and does not move uniformly. There are various submarkets and segments present right now. The property sector, especially those with significant catastrophe exposure, is particularly challenging. Availability is limited, and reinsurance is becoming more difficult to secure. Prices are on the rise. On the other hand, some areas of the market may be more stable. Generally, if you review the earnings reports, you'll find numerous examples of carriers facing difficulties in their business models and financial results. This situation influences the Excess and Surplus market, which contributes to the opportunities we recognize. Additionally, part of our market opportunity stems from our business model, which provides us with a significant cost advantage. We operate in an industry where customers are highly sensitive to policy pricing, and this gives us a substantial edge that we are eager to leverage.

Okay, perfect. And just one last one, just on your property business. I'm just wondering the rates there have obviously firmed a lot, everyone knows that over the past year. And wondering what your appetite is for growth there. What you're seeing year-to-date on that line? Are the rates good enough to really expand there? And anything you can talk about on that part of the book.

Yes, there is a significant market opportunity in property, and we are making substantial efforts to capitalize on it. Given the current market conditions, our property divisions are expanding quickly. We operate in several different areas, including a commercial property division, a small business property division, an Inland Marine division, and a personal lines division that is primarily property-driven. We are focused on growth and leveraging this opportunity. However, I want to emphasize that we are always mindful of the volatility linked to the catastrophe business, and we maintain strict controls on the concentration of our business in any specific geographic region. We regularly evaluate our portfolio and purchase a significant amount of reinsurance. Therefore, we will continue to balance the volatility with the profit potential in that sector, but we are indeed writing more business than we have in the past.

Your next question is from the line of Casey Alexander with Compass Point.

Yes. You just answered my biggest question in that last one but I'll ask one other. The equity securities as a percentage of your total investment portfolio, obviously, due to mark-to-market changes in the portfolio over the last couple of quarters have shrunk to where it's now somewhere below 10%. Would you guys consider increasing the allocation to equities to bring it back up to a more normalized level and take advantage of lower prices in the marketplace?

Yes, this is Mike. I would say that longer term, we think equities will play a bigger role in our investment strategy. In the next couple of months, we're digesting some pretty dramatic changes in Fed policy around short-term rates, quantitative tightening, how transitory inflation is, are we going into a recession, etc. So near-term, I think we're not going to make any dramatic changes. Longer-term, I think equities could play an incrementally larger role in our investment strategy.

Your next question is from the line of Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan.

I think the benefits from higher pricing are clearly reflected in your results. However, could you provide more insight into the dynamic between new business and renewals regarding your premium growth? Specifically, what portion of your written premium is attributed to new business versus renewals? Alternatively, how does your current policy count compare to bond policies? I believe in 2021, you issued around 35,000 bonds.

I guess one way to answer that would be, generally speaking, we renew about 2/3 of the dollars of premium from one year to next, and so if that ratio holds steady in the long term, about 1/3 of our business should be new and about 2/3 of our business should be renewal. I don't have the exact figures. But since we've been growing more of our business is new than 1/3. But over the long term, that's what you should expect in terms of new versus renewal split.

Got it. Regarding investment income, I was wondering if you are divesting from your current securities or primarily investing operating cash flow at the newer, higher yield. Looking ahead, do you anticipate a yield increase as your investment base continues to grow?

Yes. We're essentially holding to maturity all the fixed income, even if it's dropped in price. So it's new money coming in. It's pay downs from existing fixed income investments that we're talking about achieving the higher yields.

Got it. And then switching to capital. So I appreciate the discussion of the financing put in place. Could you remind us again how much incremental net premiums current financing will be able to support? And I guess you can sort of frame it whichever you think is appropriate but at least from where I'm sitting, like I tend to think about like a debt-to-capital ratio or target in the surplus ratio. But just broadly speaking, how much net premiums can the current financing support?

The debt to capital is expected to be in the high teens, around 17%, give or take, based on our pro forma calculations. What was the rest of your question, Pablo?

Yes. It was more about the amount of net premium that financing can support. I tend to think of it as maybe 1:1 or a little over 1, possibly even 2. So if you raised $125 million and you have a revolving credit line of $100 million, then I think you can increase both.

Yes, we will need to follow up on that. However, we constantly model our business as part of our capital management process. We view this note and debt as putting us in a strong position to conclude 2022 favorably with AM Best, our main rating agency. Maintaining our A rating is very important to us. But to specify how much premium would be tied to that, we'll need to get back to you.

Got it. And then last one for me. So just on the topic of loss trends. So I think this quarter, other companies have talked about updating the loss trend assumptions, I guess, given higher inflation and the evolving course might develop. Have there been any changes in your loss trend assumptions over the past couple of years and I appreciate the disclosure you've given, prospective be the 8% but has that number changed much over the past couple of years?

Yes, absolutely. I mean every quarter, we look at actual loss activity and actual economic statistics, especially around things like inflation and adjust all of our actuarial assumptions to make sure that they're as accurate as they can be. So yes, as we've seen inflation trend up the last year or so, we're certainly updating our actuarial assumptions accordingly.

Your next question is from Mark Hughes with Truist.

I'll follow up on that. You mentioned an 8% loss cost trend that you're projecting based on the statistics available. Historically, you've indicated more of a mid-single-digit loss cost trend. Have you noticed it increasing slightly, or are you just being cautious to ensure it doesn't catch you off guard?

Mark, this is Mike. Where we've seen inflation in the claims process at this stage is mostly in first-party claims, where labor costs, construction costs are inflating the value of a property damage claim. We've seen it a little bit in the construction defect area. That's property damage driven. And so it's not unusual if someone's made an estimate of x amount of damages over the course of the litigation. The estimate gets updated and it increases because of supply chain issues, labor costs and the like. But I would say that 8% and our actuarial assumptions are really driven more by different statistics that we use to forecast and plan our business.

Is there a limit on how much property you would be willing to include in your premium mix just to manage volatility?

Property constitutes roughly one-third of the E&S market. However, there are specific segments of the property market, such as primary habitational business, that we are not focusing on. As a result, we believe we are currently below that one-third threshold, probably in the low 20s, and we are quite comfortable with this position. There isn't a specific target we're aiming for; rather, we're focused on balancing our property writings and effectively managing the volatility associated with natural catastrophes. Over the past 13 years, we have maintained a solid track record in this regard, with manageable losses during significant storm events. This success is largely attributed to strong underwriting practices and a conservative approach to risk management.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Michael Kehoe.

Okay. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us. We're happy with the quarterly results and I look forward to speaking with you again here in 90 days. Have a great day.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.