Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. Q2 FY2023 Earnings Call

Good morning and welcome to the Q2 2023 Kinsale Capital Group Inc. Earnings Conference Call. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale’s management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company’s various SEC filings, including the 2022 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its second quarter results. Kinsale’s management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company’s website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com. I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale’s President and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Bryan Petrucelli, our CFO, and Brian Haney, our COO, are both on the call this morning as well. Each of us will make a few comments and then we’ll move on to any questions you may have. In the second quarter of 2023, Kinsale’s operating earnings per share increased by 50%, and gross written premium grew by 58.2% over the second quarter of 2022. For the quarter, the company posted a combined ratio of 76.7%, and an operating return on equity of 30.6% for the six months. These results follow from the company’s strategy of both disciplined E&S underwriting and technology-enabled low costs, which allow us to generate attractive returns and take market share from competitors at the same time. The favorable market conditions in the overall E&S market further boosted the Kinsale numbers, especially with respect to the quarterly growth of 58%. 2023 may be the sixth calendar year in a row with double-digit industry-wide E&S premium growth. The commercial property market continues to be an area of opportunity for Kinsale, with both rapid growth in premium and strong rate increases. As we’ve discussed previously, we are balancing the market opportunity and the goal of limiting volatility in our quarterly earnings. Even with the recent growth in property premium, our expected losses relative to operating income have not materially changed. We have stressed the importance of establishing reserves for future claims in a conservative fashion, and in fact, on an inception-to-date basis for the last 10 years, all of our prior accident years have developed favorably. Given the rate increases we have achieved over the last several years, we believe our total reserves are more conservatively positioned now than at any time in the history of our company, even with the impact of elevated inflation in the last several years. That being said, however, inflation has reduced the level of conservatism in our 2016 through 2018 accident years, and if inflation is affecting select Kinsale reserves, we suspect it is affecting our competitors as well. To the extent that inflation is impacting casualty reserve adequacy for the industry, it may be bullish for continued strong rate increases and growth for the near term, perhaps through 2024 or beyond. As we’ve noted many times, longer term, we see levels of competition normalizing and our growth rate dropping into the teens while our business model of disciplined underwriting and low cost allows us to continue to deliver strong returns. A final comment from me on the real estate investment we made in December of 2022; as you recall, we purchased two office buildings and vacant land adjacent to our existing headquarters for $77.5 million. One of those buildings is under a long-term lease and is now under contract to be sold for $63 million, and we expect that sale to close in the third quarter. We also expect to begin renovations on the remaining building, as it is largely vacant, later this year or early next year and to occupy it beginning in 2025. And with that, I’ll turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli.

Thanks, Mike. Again, just another really strong quarter with 58% growth in written premium, and net income and operating income increasing by 169% and 51%, respectively. The 76.7% combined ratio for the quarter included 3.9 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development compared to 4.9 points last year, with less than a point coming from cat losses in either period. In the second quarter of this year, we made an immaterial accounting policy change and reclassified policy fees from an offset to underwriting expense to fee income. This change was driven by the increase in policy fees relative to operating expenses. In connection with this reclass, we’ve modified the expense and loss ratio calculations to add the fees to premium and the denominator of each of those ratios. For comparison purposes, we’ve reclassified prior periods to conform with the current period’s presentation. We believe the current presentation provides better clarity and transparency to the users of our financial statements. This change had a slight impact on the previously recorded ratios, however, no impact on the company’s operating results. Most of the improvement in the modified quarterly expense ratio of 21% compared to 22.5% in the second quarter of last year related to ceding commissions from the company’s casualty and commercial property proportional reinsurance agreements, as a result of growth in both of those lines of business. With respect to reinsurance, we successfully renewed our commercial property quota share, property cat, and casualty variable quota share treaties on June 1. Pricing was consistent with previous years on the two quota share treaties; however, we did increase the ceding percentage on our commercial property quota share from 42.5% to 50%. We saw an approximately 20% increase in our cat treaty pricing on a risk-adjusted basis. As a result, we increased our retention to $47.5 million and, at the same time, bought more limit on the top layer to account for increased exposure. Lastly, we did not renew our personal insurance quota share treaty due to the dramatic decrease in concentration from actions we took after Hurricane Ian last year. On the investment side, net investment income increased by 128% over the second quarter of last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio and higher interest rates, with gross returns of 3.8% for the year compared to 2.6% last year. We’re continuing to invest new money in shorter duration securities with new money yields averaging a little higher than 5% during the quarter and duration decreasing slightly to 3.1 years, down from 3.5 years at the end of last year. Lastly, diluted operating earnings per share continue to improve and was $2.88 per share for the quarter compared to $1.92 per share last year. With that, I’ll pass it over to Brian Haney.

Thanks, Bryan. As mentioned earlier, premium grew 58% in the second quarter, which was significantly higher than the past several quarters. The E&S market remains favorable with strong growth across most of our products. The property market continues to be hard. In addition to the property market, we are seeing continued strong growth in our entertainment and general casualty divisions. Management liability still continues to lag. Much of this is due to a lot of competition in this space, particularly from MGAs. Submission growth continues to be strong, again, in the low 20% range, slightly higher than the first quarter. We view submissions as a leading indicator of growth, so the submission growth is a positive signal for our market opportunity. We sell a wide array of products, and the rates on those products don’t move in lockstep; however, if we boil it down to one number, we see real rates being up around 6% in the aggregate during the second quarter, a little less than the first quarter. Some of this change from the first quarter is natural volatility, and some is from changes in the mix of business. The property market is still boosting an overall number. The rate changes for property would be well higher than the average. The rate changes for casualty divisions would vary greatly, but overall, it would be less than the average. It’s important to emphasize that rate change and rate adequacy are two different things. As our results demonstrate, our rates are more than adequate. We are continually reviewing our rates and adjusting them based on a number of considerations, such as our target combined ratio and return on equity, market opportunities, and shifts in competition. I should also note that when we talk about rate changes, we are discussing real rate changes. So any positive number would suggest improving margins. With our return on equity running well ahead of our targets, we don’t have a need to raise our rates at all to feel confident about hitting our profitability guidance. We could lower our rates and grow faster, but we are growing fast enough as it is. We have twin objectives of profit and growth. In this environment, we’re achieving both without needing to cut rates. In any case, we believe the business we’re putting on the books today is the most accurately priced business we’ve seen in our history. As Mike mentioned, we are seeing effects of inflation in some of our longer tail business. We’re in a good spot to keep pace with that with strong pricing and conservative reserving, but you may well see this play out across the industry. If that happens, it could take a long while for the industry to catch up. I think that inflation will likely serve to prolong the hard market. The market conditions are good again. For the most part, we see competitors either retrenching or behaving in a stable and rational manner. There are exceptions to this, but those exceptions tend to be concentrated among MGAs and fronting deals. I suspect that some of the recent adverse news in that space will highlight the pitfalls of that model and dampen investor enthusiasm, but that remains to be seen. Overall, clearly, a good quarter, and we are very happy with the results. And with that, I’ll hand it back over to Mike.

Okay, thanks, Brian. Operator, we’re now ready for any calls in the queue.

Thank you. The first question is from Jack Madden with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. There’s a first one in the ENS market place in pricing. We’ve seen some brokers and carriers report premium growth well in excess of expectations similar to your results. I guess can you talk about the momentum you’re seeing either on the pricing front and can flow into the E&S space and maybe differentiating between casualty lines and property lines.

Sorry, I lost half of that. Can you repeat the last half of your question?

Sure. Can you just talk about the momentum you’re seeing either on the pricing front and/or flow into the E&S marketplace? And then are casualty lines seeing pricing momentum? Or is it mostly just property lines?

I would say that the property is obviously seeing more momentum. I would say casualty, depending on what line you’re talking about, some of them are seeing pretty strong rate momentum. The submission growth, I think, tends to be fairly good across most of the lines. And to the extent that it is anything, it has to do with some sort of ebbs and flows in the economy. But I would say for the most part, we are seeing continued momentum across both casualty and property.

Got it. And then a follow-up on lawsuit and social inflation. So we’ve been seeing carriers report lower year-over-year levels of reserve and leases from long-term alliance and general liability. I guess can you talk about the casualty loss cost trends you’re seeing in your portfolio? Are they inching higher at all?

Yes. I mean we’re seeing the effect of inflation on the longer tail lines and to the extent that older claims are inflated in value, it stretches out your development patterns. That’s consistent with the comments I made about the 2016, 2017, and 2018 years. We think we’re in good shape for those years in terms of reserve adequacy. It’s just that we don’t see the same kind of dramatic conservatism in the more recent years. We’ve been raising rates ahead of loss cost trend since 2019. It’s year upon year, and that’s what’s driving our confidence in the strength of our balance sheet, the profitability of our business, and the conservative position regarding reserves. But yes, the older longer-tail casualty lines are seeing the impact of inflation, whether it’s social or regular; I don’t know that we distinguish between the two, but loss cost trend is real, and it’s accelerated by inflation.

Got it. Thank you.

The next question is from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities. Your line is open.

Yes, thank you. Good morning.

Morning, Mark.

Bryan Petrucelli, regarding revenue, it seems to be about 2 points based on the limited data we have. Is that an appropriate way to evaluate it? How should we approach modeling that?

Yes. I think the best way to analyze it is to look at the policy fees as a percentage of your direct written. I believe it's just under 2%. When you're modeling, I would recommend aligning it with your direct premium growth projections.

Okay. And then, Mike, the property mix, I think you’ve talked in the past about how you’ve had maybe 20% property, maybe half of that cat exposed. How is that shaping up now? How can either of those numbers go?

Yes. It’s steady quarter-over-quarter, Mark. There’s a lot of opportunity in the property space. We’re definitely leaning into that. As we’ve talked about in the past, we’ve got fairly rigorous controls around the concentration of property in any given geographic area; we buy a lot of reinsurance. We model the portfolio continuously. So that’s where we have the confidence that our expected losses in the event of a major storm relative to operating income haven’t really shifted at all.

You think about this quarter, a lot of cats, presumably some competitors really taking a hit you had hardly any losses. Anything you could say about your book of business, why this was not relevant for you this quarter?

Well, I mean some of that can be random. Some of it is where those tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail events, etcetera, took place. It seems like it was disproportionately a personal lines event, and we’re not a huge personal lines writer. Our strategy on the commercial property, we definitely skew towards writing excess policies versus primary. So that gives you a little bit of insulation from more minor events, that’s all I can think of at the moment.

Yes, that’s helpful and I appreciate it. The sale price for the building you’re selling is $63 million. What is the cost basis for that sale?

So if you look at the available for sale line item in our balance sheet, Mark, it’s about $57.5 million.

And is that for the entire property, or do I hear that you’re selling just part of it? That’s just for.

Yes, the asset for sale amount is just the property that we’re selling. The real estate investment line item underneath that is what we’ll have left.

Right. So modest gain, fair enough.

Correct.

And then Brian Haney, you mentioned the recent news in the MGA space may herald some kind of turn in that sector. What are you referring to generally speaking or if there are specifics you can share?

Yes, there were some issues with the collateral related to certain fronted deals. If you look in the financial press, you’ll find some examples. This particular case involves our most aggressive competitors, who we frequently encounter and who often undercut our rates significantly. They are typically concentrated among those involved in this recent situation.

Okay. Very good, thank you.

The next question is from Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. Mike, I appreciate the commentary you provided on your property book and noted on where you are on the restart bit. I was wondering if there’s something to think about your geographic exposure there. I suppose if you think of sort of classic E&S property, that tends to be more exposed to the coast, right, and a little less in the middle of the country. Is that the same for your book?

No. I think ours is more balanced. We certainly write a lot of Southeastern coastal commercial property, but we write tough E&S occupancy all over the place, including industrial-type businesses, recyclers, manufacturers, warehouses, etcetera. So our book is a nice balance between kind of fire-driven business versus the wind.

Got it. Okay. And then just switching to premium growth here. And I’m trying to think about in terms of product mix. So when I look at your first quarter as a base, right, because that’s where there’s disclosure here by line. I think if you look at the stat statements, property more than doubled, right, premium growth is about 45%. Casualty was higher, but not anywhere near your property. Was that a similar sort of growth pattern for this quarter as well, right, where property was just much stronger than in terms of growth?

Yes, I think it would be directionally similar.

Okay. I have a similar question regarding geographic spread and any data you can share from the surplus lines offices. For the second quarter, it seems that Florida and Texas experienced close to 60% growth, while California was around 20%. Together, these three states likely contributed to about 50% growth. It appears your overall growth surpassed that figure. Does that indicate that the remainder of the country, approximately 50% of the unit market, also saw growth in that 50% range?

I don’t have the data in front of us here on a state-by-state basis. However, I would say, generally speaking, yes. The broad E&S market is quite attractive today. Candidly, just as it has been in the last four to five years. It’s really a very attractive market. As we’ve said, we’ve got a good level of confidence going forward based on submission growth and some of the headlines around some of these things in the fronting market and inflation’s impact on reserves. There’s a lot of rationale for continued confidence.

Okay. And then just last for me, I’d be curious to hear your views on the property insurance market here. Clearly, it’s a pretty good environment. Do you think the trends are on until 2024, I suppose, if what the reinsurers are saying come to pass, right? If they think 2024 will be a hard year for them, then that would have implications for other primary companies. But I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on where you see the property market going, and if you see any knock-on effects for casualty lines?

I’ll start, and then I’ll hand it to Brian. I would just say, yes, I would be pretty optimistic this year and next. Eventually, capitalism is such that if people are getting attractive returns, it’s going to attract new entrants and new capital into the space. You’d see an uptick in competition and probably an abatement in some of the rate increases. But I feel pretty positive for the near term.

I would say we’ve read the same things from some of the larger primary companies and brokers. I would say the people I’ve read saying that this is going to last until 2024 are in a good spot to know; they’re going to have the best view of that because they’ll see a lot of the data and a lot of the accounts. The people I’ve read, I would trust that their read is probably better than most people’s.

Okay, thank you.

Thanks, Pablo.

The next question is from Andrew Anderson with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Hey good morning. Some really strong growth year-to-date. If we look at it on a premium to surplus basis, it looks like it might be ticking up towards 1.1, 1.2 times. Just given the mix shift and growth in property, how should we kind of be thinking about the, I guess, ideal premium to surplus ratio here?

I would say there’s no explicit ratio in the A.M. Best car model. However, directionally, we’re stretching our capital close to the max. We expect to borrow some more money shortly to inject a little bit more capital into the insurance company. 1.2-ish, 1.3 somewhere in there is probably the max. It varies too by the mix of business. It depends on how much reinsurance we have on a given line and that type of thing. But I think 1.2 to 1.3 makes sense.

Thanks. And you mentioned conservatism in just the back book of reserves here. Is there an equal level of conservatism in how we’re thinking about the underlying loss ratios in current year picks, which looked like it improved 60, 70 bps year-over-year? I don’t know if there’s anything one-off in this quarter’s number, but how should we think about that?

Yes. I mean, I think the reserves that we set up for future claims are a big component of those loss ratios. I think there’s some conservatism in those picks. There’s also some variability quarter-to-quarter just based on the flow of claims being reported and settled, that type of thing. But in general, I think investors should be confident that Kinsale’s reserves are conservatively stated, and just as they have for years, they’re likely to develop favorably over time as we settle out those claims.

Thanks. And maybe one last one for me. Just on the expense ratio, a lot of year-over-year improvement in the net commission ratio. I think the other underwriting expense ratio was roughly flat, perhaps just reflecting some employee comp and benefits here, but are there still some scale opportunities on the other underwriting expense ratio?

Yes, certainly. Reflecting on our IPO, our other underwriting expenses were just over 16%. Currently, we are within the range of 10 to 11%. The main factor behind this improvement has been our ongoing efforts to integrate more automation and technology into our business processes. We have made significant strides over the years, but there is still room for further enhancement. We have numerous opportunities to improve in this area moving forward. I believe our decision, made 14 years ago when we started the company, to prioritize technology as a core competency alongside underwriting and claims handling was the right choice. This strategy continues to provide benefits, particularly in terms of efficiency, but also enhances customer service and our data collection capabilities.

Great. Thank you.

The next question is from Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Hey thanks for taking the follow-up. So just one for me. Another specialty carrier that writes construction liability mentioned in its earnings call that it sees the market that is highly competitive and that contractors have begun to up to project slightly lower revenues. I was curious if you’re seeing any of that in your own book of business. Thank you.

Yes. I would say we are seeing that on the construction side; it’s one of the areas where you’re starting to see some effect from the economy, the higher interest rates, and the flow-through into the construction business itself.

Alright. Thank you.

Thanks, Pablo.

We have no further questions. At this time, we’ll turn it back to the presenters for any closing remarks.

Okay. Well thank you everybody for joining us, and we look forward to speaking with you again in a few months. And with that, we’ll go ahead and adjourn today.

This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.