Matson, Inc. Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Matson Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Justin Schoenberg, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development at Matson. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Joining me on the call today are Matt Cox, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Joel Wine, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Slides from this presentation are available for download at our website, www.matson.com, under the Investors tab. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws regarding expectations, predictions, projections or future events. We believe that our expectations and assumptions are reasonable. We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements in the press release, the presentation slides, and this conference call. These risk factors are described in our press release and presentation and are more fully detailed under the caption Risk Factors on Pages 24 to 35 of our Form 10-Q filed on May 6, 2025, and in our subsequent filings with the SEC. Please also note that the date of this conference call is November 4, 2025, and any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Matt.

Thanks, Justin, and thanks to those on the call. I'll start on Slide 3. In the third quarter, our business segments performed well in a difficult environment marked by continued uncertainty and volatility arising from tariffs and global trade. In Ocean Transportation, operating income was lower year-over-year, primarily due to lower year-over-year freight rates and container volume in our China service. In our domestic tradelanes, we saw higher year-over-year volume in Hawaii and Alaska, and lower year-over-year volume in Guam. In Logistics, our operating income was lower year-over-year, primarily due to lower contributions from freight forwarding, transportation brokerage, and supply chain management. For the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect consolidated operating income to be approximately 30% lower year-over-year. We're also optimistic and expect a more stable trading environment for our customers starting in the fourth quarter as a result of the reduction in uncertainty regarding tariffs, port entry fees, global trade, and other geopolitical factors due to the trade and economic deal between the U.S. and China announced on October 30. Joel will go into more detail on our updated forecast and outlook later in the presentation. I will now go through the third quarter performance of our trade lanes, SSAT, and Logistics. So please turn to the next slide. Container volume in our Hawaii service increased 0.3% in the third quarter year-over-year. For the full year 2025, we expect volume to be comparable to the level achieved in 2024, reflecting modest economic growth in Hawaii and stable market share. Please turn to Slide 5. According to UHERO's September Economic report, the Hawaii economy is softening as slowing tourism and high inflation and interest rates weigh against stronger construction activity. Construction is a bright spot in the Hawaii economy, supported by public sector projects and the Maui rebuilding effort. Hawaii tourism softened considerably over the summer as tourist arrivals and spending declined year-over-year, in part due to tariff uncertainties impacting international tourism. Moving to our China service on Slide 6. Container volume in the third quarter of 2025 decreased 12.8% year-over-year, primarily due to the difficult environment marked by continued uncertainty and volatility arising from tariffs and global trade. Freight rates in the quarter were lower year-over-year. Please turn to Slide 7. The Transpacific tradelane in the third quarter experienced a muted peak season compared to the elevated demand levels last year, due to businesses advancing cargo in the late second quarter and early third quarter ahead of U.S. tariff deadlines, which led to slower third quarter demand for our expedited services. The muted demand we experienced in the third quarter persisted through October as customers continue to navigate tariff uncertainty. As such, for the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect lower year-over-year freight rates and volume in our China service as we expect many of our China service customers to be cautious on inventory levels and work through previously purchased inventory. However, we expect a more stable trading environment for our customers in the fourth quarter of 2025 as a result of the reduction in uncertainty regarding tariffs, port entry fees, global trade, and other geopolitical factors due to the trade and economic deal between the U.S. and China announced on October 30. Please turn to Slide 8. When port entry fee collection commenced in the U.S. and China on October 14, we did not let these fees impact our China service. We advised our customers that our CLX and MAX services from China would not change and that port entry fees would not be passed on to them. At that time, based on our initial assessment of our anticipated fleet schedule, vessel charters, and expected dry dockings, we expected to pay approximately $20 million in port entry fees in the fourth quarter of 2025 and approximately $80 million annually in port entry fees in 2026 and 2027. Then on October 30, the U.S. and China reached a trade and economic deal. The deal includes a 1-year suspension of port entry fees and a cumulative reduction by 10% for tariffs on Chinese imports to curb fentanyl flows for 1 year, each starting on November 10. We expect the USTR and the China Ministry of Transport to publish specific instructions regarding port entry fees shortly. This was a welcome development, and we are optimistic that this is a positive step towards a longer-lasting agreement between the two countries. Quarter-to-date, we have paid $6.4 million in port entry fees. Again, we have not passed these port entry fees on to our customers. Our philosophy in the tradelane is to charge rates based on the value we provide with our expedited services given the underlying supply and demand conditions. In our nearly 20 years of operating our China service, we have not passed on surcharges or temporary fees to our customers, and we did not and do not intend to do so with these port entry fees. I want to underscore that we are business as usual with the CLX and MAX services operating without interruption. We remain committed to the Transpacific tradelane and are highly confident in our positioning with the two fastest and most reliable Transpacific services, and we will continue providing our CLX and MAX customers with world-class service. Moving to the next slide. In Guam, Matson's container volume in the third quarter of 2025 decreased 4.2% year-over-year due to lower general demand. In the near term, we expect Guam's economy to moderate, reflecting a challenging tourism environment. As such, for the full year 2025, we expect volume to be modestly lower than the level achieved last year. Please turn to Slide 10. In Alaska, Matson's container volume for the third quarter of 2025 increased 4.1% year-over-year. The increase was primarily due to one additional northbound sailing compared to the year-ago period and higher AAX volume. In the near term, we expect continued economic growth in Alaska, supported by a low unemployment rate, job growth, and continued oil and gas exploration and production activity. As such, for the full year 2025, we expect container volume to be modestly higher than the level achieved last year. Please turn to Slide 11. In the third quarter, our SSAT terminal joint venture contributed $9.3 million, representing a year-over-year increase of $2.4 million. The increase was primarily due to higher lift revenue. For the full year 2025, we expect the contribution from SSAT to be higher than the $17.4 million achieved last year without taking into account the $18.4 million impairment charge recorded by SSAT during the fourth quarter of 2024. Turning now to Logistics on Slide 12. Operating income in the third quarter came in at $13.6 million or $1.8 million lower than the result in the year-ago period. The decrease was primarily due to lower contributions from freight forwarding, transportation brokerage, and supply chain management. In the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect Logistics operating income to be modestly lower than the level achieved last year. And with that, I will now turn the call over to my partner, Joel, for a review of our financial performance.

Okay. Thanks, Matt. Please turn to Slide 13 for a review of our third quarter results. For the third quarter, consolidated operating income decreased $81.3 million year-over-year to $161 million with lower contributions from Ocean Transportation and Logistics of $79.5 million and $1.8 million, respectively. The decrease in Ocean Transportation operating income in the third quarter was primarily due to lower freight rates and volume in China. As Matt noted, the decrease in logistics operating income was primarily due to lower contributions from freight forwarding, transportation brokerage, and supply chain management. We had interest income of $7.6 million in the quarter compared to $10.4 million in the same period last year. Interest expense in the quarter was unchanged year-over-year. Net income decreased 32.3% year-over-year to $134.7 million, and diluted earnings per share decreased 28% year-over-year to $4.24 per share. Lastly, diluted weighted average shares outstanding decreased 5.9% year-over-year. Please turn to Slide 14. We continue to generate strong cash flows. For the trailing 12 months, we generated cash flow from operations of $544.9 million. We returned capital in the form of dividends and share repurchases of $302.5 million, and we had maintenance CapEx of $186.6 million. Our cash flow from operations exceeded the aggregate spend on maintenance CapEx, dividends, and share repurchases by $55.8 million. Please turn to Slide 15 for a summary of our share repurchase program and balance sheet. During the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 0.6 million shares for a total cost of $66.4 million, including taxes. Year-to-date, we repurchased approximately 2 million shares for a total cost of $229.3 million, including taxes. Since we initiated our share repurchase program in August of 2021 through September of this year, we have repurchased approximately 13.1 million shares or 30.2% of our stock for a total cost of approximately $1.2 billion. As we have said before, we are committed to returning excess capital to shareholders and plan to continue to do so in the absence of any large organic or inorganic growth investment opportunities. Turning to our debt levels. Our total debt at the end of the third quarter was $370.9 million, a reduction of $10.1 million from the end of the second quarter. Please turn to Slide 16, where I will walk through our outlook. Based on the outlook trends Matt mentioned earlier, we expect Ocean Transportation operating income to be lower than the $137.4 million achieved in the fourth quarter of 2024. For Logistics, we expect operating income in the fourth quarter of 2025 to be modestly lower than the level achieved last year. In total, we expect consolidated operating income in the fourth quarter to be approximately 30% lower than the prior year. In addition, we expect the following for the full year 2025. Depreciation and amortization to approximate $196 million, inclusive of $28 million for dry dock amortization. Interest income to be approximately $32 million and interest expense to be approximately $7 million, other income to be approximately $9 million, an effective tax rate of approximately 22.0%, and dry-docking payments of approximately $45 million. Lastly, I'd like to discuss our CapEx projections for the full year 2025. Compared to what we previously provided on our second quarter earnings call, our expectation for maintenance and other capital expenditures this year has increased to approximately $130 million due to some CapEx now expected to occur before the end of 2025 versus previously expected to occur in early 2026. Overall, we are confident our annual maintenance CapEx will remain in the $100 million to $120 million range going forward. Our estimate for expected new vessel construction milestone payments in 2025 is now approximately $248 million. This is lower than our prior estimate as a milestone payment has been pushed back to the first half of 2026. Please note that the total cost of our new vessel program remains the same at approximately $1 billion. Please turn to Slide 17. I wanted to spend a moment on our current CCF funding of the new vessel build program. As of September 30, the $628 million in cash deposits and treasury securities in our capital construction fund covers approximately 92% of the remaining milestone payment obligations, which excludes future interest income or accretion earned on cash deposits and treasury securities. Assuming the interest income rate on our CCF money market funds remains at our current rate of 4%, we expect only approximately $28 million of additional CCF cash deposits to be required for the final milestone payments in late fourth quarter 2027. In addition to the current CCF balance, we also had $93 million in cash and cash equivalents as of September 30. These two balances combined exceed our remaining milestone payments, so we are in a great funding position on the new build program. This year, in the fourth quarter, we expect to make approximately $101 million in milestone payments from the CCF, of which we already made approximately $36 million in milestone payments in October. Lastly, the targeted build schedule also remains unchanged. We recently received an update from Hanwha Philly Shipyard, and there has been no change to the schedule we previously communicated. We continue to expect our three vessels to be delivered in the first quarter of 2027, the third quarter of 2027, and the second quarter of 2028.

Okay. Thanks, Joel. In closing, as we continue to navigate through this period of market uncertainty and volatility, Matson remains well positioned and diversified across its tradelanes and in logistics. We will continue to focus on what we can control. Across all our business lines, we continue to work closely with our customers to manage their transportation needs in an evolving marketplace. We are also steadfast in maintaining the highest levels of service reliability and delivering superior customer service. Decades of experience have proven to us that Matson's future success and growth is a function of how well we deliver for our customers during unsettled times. We believe that the trade and economic deal announced on October 30 is an important positive step forward towards a more stable economic trading environment. And with that, I will turn the call back to the operator and ask for your questions. Thanks.

Certainly, and our first question for today comes from the line of Jacob Lacks from Wolfe Research.

So pricing has clearly held in well, just given everything going on in the Transpacific lane right now. We've seen a lot of pressure on more traditional spot rates over the past few months. Do you view the current pricing levels as sustainable? Or do you think there could be some further pressure from here just with weakness in the more traditional ocean market?

Yes. Thanks for the question. So, I think we did make a conscious choice to hold our prices as we saw the SCFI and the spot rate fall pretty dramatically in the last quarter or so. And that was really based on a belief in our sense that we would see a little bit less expedited volumes for reasons that we talked about earlier. And we're very pleased with our pricing. As we've said many times, we have a different pricing algorithm coming out of the pandemic, and we really are trading at multiples, some of the highest spreads over the market rates that we've ever seen in absolute dollars. So, I guess the way I would describe that now, where we typically go is that we do typically see a period of market adjustments as we get through traditional peak and once all the merchandise is delivered, and that usually happens sometime in October for a few months until we get ramping up for Lunar New Year. So, I would say our absolute freight rates are likely to come down, but in a very orderly way and very consistent with our previous seasonal patterns. So really nothing surprising or no major significant changes to the way we've thought about the market.

That's helpful. I think you briefly mentioned this, but regarding the utilization challenges in the quarter, is that mainly due to your pricing strategies? Do you believe there are sourcing changes from China that are affecting it? I would appreciate hearing your thoughts.

Yes. My perspective on this was there was certainly additional capacity in the Transpacific market, but our utilization at lower levels was really borne out of an insight that because of the dramatic premium in our pricing relative to the market pricing that we couldn't lower our prices enough to create additional demand that which needed to move in an expedited fashion was going to pay the Matson premium for getting its cargo to the market in a very reliable and fast way. So, our sense was that ours had a little bit more to do with the front-loading of inventory. And if you're front-loading hundreds of thousands of SKUs, you're likely to have a little bit less need for expedited product if you're moving it all into a warehouse. And it was really more that function that I think drove our utilization rather than supply and demand in the broader market.

Makes sense. And maybe just one quick clarification. Are the $6.4 million in port fees, are those included in the operating profit down 30% in Q4? Or are those excluded?

Yes, they are. They're included.

And our next question comes from the line of Omar Nokta from Jefferies.

I actually have a few questions that pretty much follow up on everything that Jacob was asking you guys were talking about. And maybe just on this first one, I know it's not a lot, but in terms of that $6.4 million in port fees, is there a mechanism for you to get that refunded back or some kind of rebate? Is there any kind of discussion on that front?

So, Omar, we mentioned in our prepared comments just a moment ago that we are waiting for the final regulations from the USTR and the China Ministry of Transport, which we expect to be issued shortly in the next week or two. We will then be able to determine whether that was a factor or not.

Okay. So just making sure, the $6.4 million that was incurred accounting-wise? Or was it actually like a cash outflow?

It was a cash outflow. Those are due upon arrival or prior to departure each week. So those are paid each week.

Okay. Okay. And then obviously, clearly, Matson, you're performing very strongly despite all the headwinds we've been seeing, especially kind of in light of the muted peak season you had talked about, and sort of been expecting. Just in terms of what we've been seeing here recently in the spot market, obviously, your earnings aren't going up and down or swinging as dramatically as say, the spot market does. But I wanted to get a sense of what you're sort of seeing develop today. Spot rates on the Transpacific fell to lows back in early October, but they've had a nice sort of sharp rebound off the bottom. Just from your vantage point, are you seeing that kind of in your business? Is it increased activity that's driving some of these gains? Or are these index rates maybe moving up for some other reason?

Yes. Let me answer directly first and then indirectly. The pricing actions currently taking place are not impacting Matson's pricing at all. Our pricing operates on a completely different level, targeting customers who need to move cargo quickly, whether due to late production or unexpected demand for replenishment. Therefore, we are somewhat disconnected from those market trends. More generally, I view this as an attempt by international ocean carriers to raise freight rates from levels they consider unsustainable, striving to achieve a more stable rate as we move past the peak shipping season. Whether they will succeed in this effort will depend on the positioning of other ocean carriers, but it is having no effect on us.

I appreciate that information. As a final question, Joel, we discussed back in early September the load factors. You mentioned earlier that you were operating in the 90s for load factors earlier in the year but were willing to reduce that to the 70s while maintaining rates. How has that changed since then? Are you still working in that 70s range?

Yes, the situation is different for the CLX and the MAX. The key point, Omar, is that we've been operating at full capacity for the past 20 years. It was only in April, with the initial wave of tariff increases, that we saw a significant drop in volumes. Moving into May and June, along with the usual peak season, various market dynamics influenced our decision to keep pricing steady, as Matt mentioned, but we still didn't reach full capacity again. Even now, since April, we have not been full at any point. So, we've focused on maintaining our rates and collaborating with customers as they adjusted their inventory and shipping, which has affected our utilization rates. You can gauge the situation based on the volumes we reported for the quarter compared to last year when we operated at full capacity throughout the year. This dynamic has played out and continues to do so as we approach the news on October 30.

Our next question comes from Reed Seay from Stephens Inc.

I wanted to ask about your customer conversations at this point. It's been a pretty crazy year for Transpacific ocean cargo. Are they potentially getting a little weary of sourcing from China? Or at this point, do they seem pretty steadfast and sticking it out through these trade discussions and all the deals?

Yes, this is Matt. I believe we're observing a continuation of trends from recent years. Initially, our manufacturing strategy was heavily focused on China, as it functioned as the world's factory floor. However, due to some political instability, many of our customers have shifted to a China Plus One approach, which helps mitigate risks, especially given the volatility experienced during the pandemic. Over time, we've seen large retailers diversify their sourcing. Recently, as discussions and issues arise between the U.S. and Chinese governments, our customers are increasingly looking for multiple sourcing options for their products. This trend is likely to persist. At the same time, China remains a crucial manufacturing source for the foreseeable future. Both trends are happening concurrently, as customers seek to diversify into Southeast Asia, Mexico, and other locations while still benefiting from the strengths of sourcing from China.

Got it. And then similarly, you've mentioned the catchment basin in recent quarters. Can you discuss where you're observing a significant volume of the CLX and MAX, particularly in relation to Vietnam or other sources as we see in the third quarter?

Yes, I can address that. You can consider the 20% we reported last quarter as a solid indication of the cargo on the CLX and MAX services coming from locations other than China. This includes North and South Vietnam, where we began operations in 2023, as well as separate services from these regions earlier this year. Additionally, we're noticing cargo being transported from Cambodia to align with our Ho Chi Minh service in the South. Cargo is also coming from Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines. However, currently, the majority of our cargo is predominantly from Vietnam. We anticipate that Thailand and other sources will continue to increase as we move towards 2026 and beyond.

Got it. And lastly, if you could just talk about maybe the pricing within your domestic lanes, Alaska and Hawaii now are a little more stable. I guess, China is more stable now, too. But can you just talk about how those are progressing and whether or not you've had some gains there?

Yes. Our strategy for domestic trades involves implementing annual rate increases that align with changes in our underlying costs, including labor and other inputs. We have a fuel surcharge that varies based on our actual fuel costs for each trade lane and the fuel consumed in those markets. Our focus is on recovering cost increases, whether they come from port terminal fees or other pass-throughs. Overall, we've observed a stable pricing environment and have been fairly successful in achieving real year-over-year increases that match our costs. These factors are central to our pricing dynamics, which have been key to our current performance.

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Matt Cox for any further remarks.

Okay. Well, thanks, everybody. We appreciate your dialing in today. And again, to repeat myself, I think we really are encouraged and optimistic by this October 30 deal date, the 30th date between the U.S. and China. And I think it will really reduce some of the planning uncertainty for our customers who have been trying to live through this period of relative instability. So, we're encouraged by that, and I will look forward to catching up with everyone on our year-end call. Thanks.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.