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Earnings call · FY2025 Q4
Executive readout · one minute
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Confident
Net tone +75 · moderate hedging
Forward guidance
2 guided metrics
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Stated verbally and extracted from the transcript.
| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Silver segment all in sustaining costs
2026
|
$16 – $18 | — | |
|
Gold segment all in sustaining costs
2026
|
$1,700 – $1,850 | — |
How the reported period landed and where the business moved.
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Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Pan American Silver 4th Quarter and Full Year End 2025 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in a listen-only mode. The conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star and then 1 on your telephone keypads. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may reach an operator by pressing star and 0. This time, I'd like to turn the conference call over to Siren Busecki, Vice President Buster Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.
Thank you for joining us today for Pan American Silver's conference call and webcast to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. This call includes forward-looking statements and information and references non-GAAP measures. Please see the cautionary statements in our MD&A, news release, and presentation slides for the period ended December 31st, 2025, all of which are available on our website. I'll now turn the call over to Michael Steinman, Pan American's President and CEO.
Good morning, everyone. I'm glad you could join us to discuss Pan American's 2025 results and our outlook for 2026. I'll start with the headline. We delivered record financial results across the board in Q4 and for the full year 2025, reflecting strong execution of our business and meaningful margin expansion from higher metal prices. Net earnings were a record $452 million in Q4, or $1.07 per basic share, which included $61 million of income from our investment in Juan Isipio. For the full year, net earnings were a record $980 million, or $2.56 per basic share. On an adjusted basis, earnings were $470 million in Q4, or $1.11 per share, and for the full year, $959 million, or $2.54 per share. The record financial results reflect both the operating strength of our assets and the leverage we have to metal prices. Importantly, that translates into record attributable free cash flow of $553 million in Q4 and $1.2 billion for the full year. Cash and short-term investments increased by $408 million from Q3, totaling 1.3 billion dollars at year-end or 1.4 billion dollars including our 44% interest in cash at 20 CPU to allow shareholders to participate directly in rising net cash levels we declared a dividend of 18 cents per common share our third dividend increase in a row turning to operating performance Attributable silver production of 22.8 million ounces in 2025 exceeded the top end of the guidance range we have increased in November, while attributable gold production of 742,200 ounces was within guidance. Silver segment all-in sustaining costs, excluding NRV inventory adjustments, were $9.51 per ounce in Q4 and $13.88 per ounce for the full year. Silver all-in sustaining costs in 2025 were below the decreased guidance. A key contributor here is Juan Isipio, which has been performing better than expected since we acquired the mine in September 2025 through the max silver transaction. For the gold segment, all in sustaining costs, excluding NRV inventory adjustments, were $1,699 per ounce in Q4 and $1,621 per ounce for the full year, which was within our guidance for 2025. It's worth noting that both silver and gold segment costs in Q4 were impacted by higher royalties and worker participation expenditures, reflecting the increase in metal prices. The silver segment is also affected by additional royalties at La Cuarada related to mining an adjacent concession, where we pay the concession owner a share of net profits earned on ores from their concession, which we treat as a royalty expense. Royalties are also impacted at San Vicente to reflect profit sharing with the state-owned mining company Comibor. In 2025 we make good progress on our major projects investing 94 million dollars in line with our guidance to advance several major projects. Most notably at La Corrada where the discovery of multiple high-grade silver zones and the subsequent expansion of mineral resources have led us to re-evaluate the development plans for this current project we now see an opportunity to integrate the mine plans and infrastructure of the La Clarada vein mine with this current project to a phased approach to development the phased approach would allow us to focus on higher grade lower tonnage and less capital intensive initial stage with the option to target lower grade material in a future expansion we are aiming to release and update the technical report for la guarada in the second quarter of 2026 to include a preliminary economic assessment of the new development approach for this current project there are also continuing discussions with our potential partners on this project to include the proposed changes the jacobina our investment in 2025 were directed at strengthening operational reliability and to advance long-term growth initiatives we have provided more details on these initiatives in our md and a so I won't run through them item by item but at high level they include plant upgrades tailings filtration and filter stack and paste backflow plant At Escobar, the Guatemalan Ministry of Energy and Mines continued meetings in Q4 2025 to advance the ILO 169 consultation process, and in December 2025 posted an update on progress for the October 2024 to November 2025 period. The Ministry also conducted an inspection in Q4 and confirmed our activities are compliant with the court order and suspension of operations as we have said previously there is no timeline for completion of the consultation process and no date for restart turning to 2026 guidance for silver we are guiding attributable production of 25 to 27 million ounces and silver segment all in sustaining costs of $15.75 to $18.25 per ounce. The year-over-year increase in silver production reflects in part the full-year contribution from Juan Isipio along with mine sequencing into higher silver grade at Cerro Moro. For gold, we are guiding attributable production of 700,000 to 750,000 ounces and gold segment all in sustaining costs of 1,700 to $1,850 per ounce. We expect higher grades at Timmins, plus a full year of production from Juan Isipio, offset by a lower contribution from Dolores as residual leaching declines, and at El Peñon from the exhaustion of low-grade stockpiles and lower ore tons processed. Our all-in-sustaining cost guidance for both the silver and gold segments reflects higher metal price assumptions which flow through to royalties worker participation payments and increased smelting and refining costs due to price participation needless to say increased metal prices far outweigh these additional royalties and provide superior return to our business as seen with record earnings and cash flow in q4 sustaining capital is expected to be similar to 2025 with the addition of capital for juanicipio we also plan increased project capital to advance lacquerada scarn and chacovina and at Timmins it's part of the increase directed towards satellite deposits reflecting positive drill results and continued work on exploration and preliminary engineering please refer to our MD&A for further detail on our 2026 outlook including an operating outlook by quarter as we look ahead we see several meaningful catalysts for 2026 first with metal prices currently well above q4 and last year's average we see potential for strong free cash flow and high returns of capital to shareholders while also funding an expanded exploration program internal growth projects and further strengthening of our balance sheet. Second, we expect to release an updated La Quirada SCARN PA in Q2, 2026, which we believe will demonstrate higher risk-adjusted returns than the original PA for the project. And third, the Jacobina optimization study is advancing well, and we look forward to sharing findings and opportunities as the engineering work progresses. Before I wrap up my prepared remarks i would like to provide a few thoughts on the metal price environment this is an exceptionally fortunate period for pan-american silver and our investors as the increase in metal price coincides with increased silver production driving higher levels of free cash flow gold's strength has been driven by sustained central bank purchases and renewed investor interest aimed volatile geopolitical backdrop u.s policy uncertainty and weakening confidence in fiat currencies particularly the u.s dollar those underlying drivers are similar supportive for silver in addition to supply demand fundamentals with the silver market expected to remain in a deficit for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. we are well positioned in this environment remaining unhatched on both gold and silver and with a focus on delivering margin expansion. To close, 2025 was a record year for Pan American, record revenue, earnings, and free cash flow, paired with strong operating execution and a stronger balance sheet. We are entering 2026 from a position of strength with a clear plan, execute safely and reliably, generate strong cash flow, advance our high-quality growth pipeline, and return capital to shareholders in a disciplined way. And with that, I'd like to open the call for questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star and then 1 on your telephone keypads. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, we do ask you please pick up the handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, you may press star and 2. Again, that is star and then 1 to join the question queue. Our first question today comes from Cosmos Chu from CIBC. Please go ahead with your question.
Thanks, Michael and team, and congrats on a very strong 2025 and looking forward to 2026. Maybe my first question is on Guanticipio. Michael, as you mentioned, very strong results so far. So, you know, it's been about half a year now. How would you describe your overall experience with the asset so far? And what has exceeded expectations? Is it throughput or is it grade or is it both? And is that sort of outperformance sustainable?
Yeah, good morning, Cosmos. Yeah, it's a bit less actually than half a year. I think we took over mid of September, somewhere around there, from Mac. Great experience so far. And as you can see in the results, I'm very, very happy what I see. I'm continuously very happy what I see, what Wani-CPO is producing. Of course, when you look at long-term production profiles and the geology of this kind of deposits, and by the way, that's the same for like a deposit of La Colorado. When you look at that geology, there's a clear sonation with metals. So you go from precious metals to more base metals, lead, zinc, and deep down, you would go into copper, really really deep down so that's kind of the geology on this kind of deposits so over long term that's changes you see but exploration of course um you know good example is is uh la colorada again for that or the neighboring mines of guanicipia as well with exploration you keep finding new veins as well which again have higher precious metal content on the top and then go deeper down into base metals so over long term you should obviously expect that the silver grades will be reduced and the base metal grades
increase but that's you know you can you can look that up in the technical report for it but as you said last year this year it looks like a very strong silver producer for us and very low cost perfect and then good that you brought up la colorada i want to ask a question about la colorada scarn as you mentioned a new technical report is coming out sometime in 2022 2026 but ahead of it i don't know how much you can share with us uh michael but you know what kind of in terms of that phased approach you know what kind of different tonnages are you sort of evaluating what kind of size are you sort of evaluating at
this point in time what's kind of like the you know cost-benefit analysis are you considering right now and you know what can we expect when that comes out sure Cosmos and yeah you need to be patient a little bit more a few more months here it's coming soon and it's a it's a it's a very exciting project and that phased approach really has changed the project quite quite a bit if you recall the original PA that called for you know up to 50,000 tons a day very very large bulk mineable ore body of course that's still the case it's still a very very large even bigger now bulk mineable ore body but over the last two years we have discovered a lot of high-grade material inside this car and also between this car and the surface in additional structures and that's really what we're going to mine in phase one so it's going to be quite a long time for phase one it's going to be way more than a decade and when you look at tonnage I don't have to find the numbers yet but you should probably expect some somewhere in the 10 to 15 thousand ton kind of range for for phase one but substantially higher grades than what we showed in the very large bulk you know kind of cave method in the in the first PA so it will be higher grade low less capital and uh really a focus on silver production for quite a long time before it will go to a more bulk mineable much bigger tonnage and more base metal rich uh production after that right certainly more to it michael and then maybe one last question um you know when i look at your 2026 guidance.
I look at the asset level production compared to 2025 guidance. One asset that is expected to increase year over year is Cerro Moro. You know, I guess this is your only asset in Argentina, but Argentina looks to be getting better as a country for mining.
So I guess my question is you know is this a country or an asset where you might be willing to commit more time and resources into it or you know how should we look at it well cosmos in general I'm always happy to commit time and exploration to any of our assets you know we have been incredibly successful over the last 20 years in replacing reserves and adding additional value to our brownfield exploration programs and look like what i was going is the best example in the company's history with a you know potential huge value creation through the drill bit so i'm always happy to continue to drill uh and and exploring our assets uh and of course in the current metal price scenarios uh that's that's even more so so you've probably seen that we uh assigned quite an increase of capital to our to our exploration programs for for 2026 and that includes for sure serra mora as well so as you say lots of positive changes in Argentina and you know a place that we are active and working for many many years and yeah looking forward to more positive exploration results from from serra mora as the year goes on great thanks again Michael those are the
questions I have.
Thank you. Thanks, Cosmos.
Our next question comes from Francesco Costanzo from Scotiabank. Please go ahead with your question.
Hi, Michael. Thanks a lot for taking my question. I just wanted to ask a follow-up on one of Cosmos' questions, actually, just on La Colorado Scarn.
Have discussions on a potential partner progressed in the last quarter, and is there any update you can provide us on what the economic terms might look like, given the new phased approach or timing of when we might see a deal signed yeah look the discussions have progressed but as you can imagine with the change we made here on this phased approach compared to the single approach we had before there has to be quite some changes how we look at that partnership and and in that discussion and how that would fall out so discussions are in full swing so So I don't really want to share right now details yet on it, but, you know, we included that change on the approach and are in full discussions.
Okay, fair enough. And then just switching gears slightly, with record silver prices, there's obviously a lot of value sitting in the ground at Escobal. So just wondering if you're able to provide us any insights on your view of how the consultation process has progressed in recent months and whether you feel that things are beginning to reaccelerate compared to this time last year.
Well, in general, of course, and we see worldwide, right, that there is a much stronger emphasis on mining and mining projects. High metal prices, of course, help it. A lot of declaration of critical minerals across the globe and countries that try to secure future metal production for their own use. So that will accelerate from now on, I'm sure about that. And, you know, we'll bring additional projects into production across the globe. I bet the ASA saw I'm giving us some more details on that, ESCAPAL, especially.
Yeah, we've been meeting with the Ministry of Energy and Mines through Q4 and a few times earlier this year. And we're standing by for the next updates for meetings and schedules for activities. So there's not a change in the activity that we've seen in the past, but certainly the engagement continues. And I think the report that was published by the Ministry of Energy and Mines at the end of the year is encouraging that they are providing some information from the government on their commitment to the process and the status of the process and the fact that it's ongoing. So we're looking forward to meetings here in the coming months and progressing with the process. Yes.
Yeah, that's great. Thanks a lot for taking my questions.
Thank you. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one. Our next question comes from Don DeMarco from National Bank. Please go ahead with your question.
Thank you, operator, and good morning, Michael and team. Just a couple of maybe financial bookkeeping questions. First off, how often are the Juan Escipio dividends paid? I mean, I see that there was a line item on the Q4 financials, full-year financials, but not on the Q3 financials. And I remember back in the MAG silver days where there were some agreements at the JV level just to pay out those dividends once a year, although there were some discussions to maybe change that more quarterly. But I'm just wondering what the current arrangement is at this point.
Hi, Don. It's Ignacio here speaking. The dividends, the payments from Juan Isipio come in the form of dividends, and there was a payment in Q4. Pan American share of that payment was around $44 million. Right now the dividends are being paid out of tax paid retained earnings, and we're currently waiting for Juan Isipio to pay its taxes and book its tax return, which will happen sometime in Q1. So, soon after that, we're expecting another dividend from Juan Ecipio, which would be higher than the one we received in Q4. So, right now, it's just being driven by just a regular cycle of the financial statements and the tax returns in Mexico.
Okay. Got it. Thank you. And, Ignacio, also, looking at you've got the senior notes maturing, $278 million at a 4.6% coupon. month um you know obviously with your free cash flow and uh you know cash balance increasing um would this be a consideration to potentially repay early um i mean obviously the august 31s have a very favorable interest rate there'd be no motivation there but but wondering about these 2027s yes that's something that we look at from time to time they are as you mentioned they are coming up in 2027.
The bonds aren't very liquid, we know that. So if an opportunity came where a bondholder was interested in potentially selling, we would consider it for sure. But this comes down to bigger capital allocation questions which are coming up this year. So look, if the opportunity came up to buy some of those bonds back to 2027s, we would consider it for sure. But as I said, the bonds have not been trading with a lot of liquidity in the market.
Okay. Well, thanks again for taking my question. That's all for me.
And with that, we'll be concluding today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Michael Steinman for any closing remarks.
Thanks, Operator. Strong production and cost-controlled Q4 in combination with high metal prices resulted in record financial results across the board, as you have seen in the press for these. And I'm really proud what we have achieved in 2026, including the very swift and quick integration of the 44% of the low-cost municipium mine. So please keep in mind that the average metal prices in Q4 were only around $58 for silver and I think a bit more than $4,100 for gold. So we have seen substantially higher metal prices in the new year so far. And additionally, we will be increasing our silver production again by about 14%, largely driven again by the low-cost production of municipio. And to top that, we'll release the updated PA on La Colorado's Garden in Q2 and further information on the Jacobina optimization as the year advances. So you can imagine I'm really looking forward to 2026, and I'm looking forward to giving an update on Q4 in our May call.
Until then, have a good time. thanks everyone for calling in this brings to a close today's conference call you may not disconnect your lines thank you for participating have a pleasant day