Patria Investments Ltd Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good day, and thank you for joining us. Welcome to Patria's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to your first speaker, Andre Medina from Patria Shareholder Relations. Please proceed.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Patria's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Speaking today on the call are our Chief Executive Officer, Alex Saigh; and our Chief Financial Officer, Ana Russo; and our Chief Economist, Luis Fernando Lopes for the Q&A session. This morning, we issued a press release and earnings presentation detailing our results for the quarter, which you can find posted on the Investor Relations section of our website or on Form 6-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call is being webcast, and a replay will be available. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that today's call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain, do not guarantee future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. Patria assumes no obligation and does not intend to update any such forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current management expectations and involve risks, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our latest Form 20-F annual report. Also note that no statements on this call constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in any Patria fund. As a foreign private issuer, Patria reports financial results using International Financial Reporting Standards, or IFRS, as opposed to U.S. GAAP. Additionally, we would like to remind everyone that we will refer to certain non-IFRS measures, which we believe are relevant in assessing the financial performance of the business, but which should not be considered in isolation from or a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. Reconciliations of these measures to the most comparable IFRS measures are included in our earnings presentation. Now I'll turn the call over to Alex.

Thank you, Andre. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we jump into the quarterly results, I would like to take a minute to celebrate an important milestone for Patria as our assets under management exceeded $50 billion as of the end of the third quarter, over 3.5 times higher than our assets under management at the time of our IPO in 2021. Looking back to our origins 37 years ago and seeing the diversified investment platform we have built is extremely rewarding. We could not have achieved this milestone without the hard work and dedication of our team and, most importantly, the trust our clients have placed in us. Since we went public in January 2021, Patria has grown from a $14 billion asset manager serving primarily a global investor base and focused mainly on private equity and infrastructure in Brazil to a broadly diversified multi-asset class manager serving both local and global investors with strong investments and distribution capabilities across Latin America and expanding capabilities in Europe and the United States. Congratulations to all of our amazing team members in reaching this milestone. Now with that as a backdrop, the strong third quarter 2025 results further highlight our progress as organic fundraising surpassed $1.5 billion in the quarter, led by our infrastructure and credit businesses, and total organic fundraising year-to-date reached $6 billion. Therefore, we are well on track to exceed the high end of our previously upwardly revised full-year target of $6.6 billion. I'd like to note that for the last 12 months, organic fundraising inflows to assets under management totaled approximately $6.9 billion. I'd also like to point out that the aforementioned year-to-date $6 billion of fundraising inflows into assets under management do not include any acquisition; this is a result of how we are leveraging the investments we have made in our platforms, mainly in our commercial areas. Redemptions have been trending lower and year-to-date represent approximately 30% less than we saw last year, a clear reflection of our strong investment performance across our verticals. Strong fundraising supported by lower redemption rates is translating into solid net organic growth as we generated over $1.4 billion of net organic inflows into fee-earning assets under management year-to-date and $1.8 billion over the last 12 months. Year-to-date, net inflows reflect an annualized organic growth rate of about 6%, which continues to highlight our ability to drive strong organic revenue and earnings growth. With that, our fee-earning assets under management in the third quarter 2025 grew to $38.8 billion, up 4% sequentially and 14% year-over-year. In the third quarter of 2025, we reported fee-related earnings of $49.5 million, representing 7% sequentially and 22% year-over-year growth, driven mainly by solid fee-earning assets under management growth and margin expansion as we continue to make progress integrating our acquisitions. On a per-share basis, fee-related earnings of $0.31 in the third quarter of 2025 rose 8% sequentially and 19% year-over-year. Our momentum is further illustrated by the $46.9 million of distributable earnings we generated in the third quarter or $0.30 per share, up a robust 22% sequentially and 31% year-over-year, driven mainly by the just mentioned very strong fee-related earnings growth. In addition, during the third quarter, we entered a total return swap with a financial institution to repurchase 1.5 million shares. With that, as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, our share count stands at 158 million shares. Ana Russo, our CFO, will provide further details in her comments. While we did not generate performance-related earnings in this quarter, I am excited to announce that subsequent to quarter-end, we had multiple monetization events in our Infrastructure Fund III, which we expect will generate approximately $15 million of performance-related earnings in the fourth quarter, bringing year-to-date total to approximately $16 million, with the potential to move higher if we have additional monetizations over the remaining two months of the year. We continue to expect Infrastructure Fund III to be the main source of performance-related earnings through 2026. As it relates to the macro outlook, it is worth noting the depreciation of the United States dollar against most of the other currencies, which contribute to our revenues in addition to the dollar. Historically, periods of dollar weakness have acted as catalysts for international portfolio diversification, prompting investors to seek exposure to regions with stronger relative performance, lower correlation, and more attractive fundamentals. We are seeing this story unfold once again as many global investors move to reduce their overweight positions in United States assets. We believe there is still more to come as non-United States markets continue to offer compelling valuations and can serve as effective risk-adjusted options to rebalance portfolios and hedge against dollar depreciation. This environment is likely to further support our fundraising efforts. As I noted at the start of my remarks, we are pleased to report that we raised $1.5 billion in the third quarter of 2025, totaling approximately $6 billion year-to-date. And we are well on track to exceed the high end of our full-year target of $6.6 billion. For the last 12 months, organic fundraising inflows to assets under management totaled approximately $6.9 billion. To provide some additional color on fundraising, we continue to see increased global interest in investments in infrastructure in Latin America from which we continue to benefit as the leading infrastructure investor in the region. Over the first three quarters of the year, we raised four times more than in 2024, led by our Infrastructure Fund V drawdown fund, co-investment vehicles, and other strategies. I would like to congratulate our infrastructure and commercial teams on the recently announced final close of our Fund V and related vehicles at $2.9 billion, almost 40% higher compared to our previous vintage, making it the largest dedicated infrastructure vintage-focused fund on Latin America. It is also important to highlight that our credit business continues to stand out and has surpassed total 2024 fundraising by almost 15% as of the third quarter of 2025, reaching $1.6 billion fundraised this year. It is worth noting that 2024 was already a record year for fundraising for credit. Our success in fundraising for infrastructure and credit is supported by a global economy experiencing persistent inflation and consequently, high interest rates. Finally, GPMS has raised $1.7 billion year-to-date, continuing to highlight the strong support from our clients and the success of the integration of this business into our platform. We believe that GPMS will continue to be a strong contributor to our future growth. As we expand our business, a large portion of the capital we raise will flow into fee-earning assets under management as capital is deployed. Our current pending fee-earning assets under management total about $3.2 billion. While the level of pending fee-earning assets under management can vary over the short term, over time, we would expect it to grow as our fundraising grows and we can raise more capital in drawdown funds, SMAs, and similar fund structures. It is also important to note that our fee-earning assets under management and management fees are very sticky and highly predictable. Indeed, approximately 22% of our fee-earning assets under management are in permanent capital vehicles, listed vehicles with no redemption policies, and approximately 90% in vehicles with no or limited redemption policies. Additionally, it is worth noting that over 50% of our fees are charged over net asset value or market value, which year-to-date has contributed approximately $2 billion to fee-earning assets under management, reflecting our very strong investment performance. We also would like to highlight that our fee-related earnings have limited exposure to foreign exchange volatility. Based on our current asset class mix, a 10% variance in soft currencies against the dollar impacts fee-related earnings by only about 2%. As we head into the fourth quarter and we gain better visibility into our expected full-year 2025 and 2026 results, we believe we are well on the way to delivering on our targets. With regard to fundraising, we are confident in our ability to exceed the high end of our 2025 full-year target of $6.6 billion. Additionally, as disclosed during our December 9, 2024 Investor Day, our objective is to raise $21 billion from 2025 through 2027, comprised of $6 billion of fundraising in 2025, $7 billion in 2026, and $8 billion in 2027. As we expect to exceed the $6.6 billion upper end of our previously upwardly reviewed 2025 guidance, this increases our confidence that we can surpass our announced 2026 targets of $7 billion. Accordingly, we believe total fundraising for 2025 and 2026 combined could reach $14 billion. Considering our $8 billion fundraising target for 2027, we believe we are well-positioned to exceed our total 3-year objective of $21 billion. As it relates to our full-year fee-related earnings, we expect full-year fee-related earnings to be slightly higher than the entry level of our fee-related earnings target range of $200 million to $225 million for 2025. Additionally, as we look into the next year, we are introducing the 2026 fee-related earnings target range of $225 million to $245 million or $1.42 to $1.54 per share. When taking into account our share count guidance of 158 million to 160 million shares, our 2026 fee-related earnings objective reflects approximately 15% year-over-year growth in fee-related earnings per share at the midpoint of this range. Importantly, we remain comfortable with our fee-related earnings 2027 target range of $260 million to $290 million or $1.60 to $1.80 per share. Finally, we are reaffirming our performance fee-related earnings target range of $120 million to $140 million from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the end of 2027, of which we already realized $42 million, and we expect to realize an additional approximate $15 million in the fourth quarter of this year. Pulling this all together, our financial results and ongoing fundraising momentum provide additional evidence that our strategy to diversify and grow our business, both organically and inorganically, is paying off. Now let me turn the call over to Ana to review our financial results in more detail. Thank you very much.

Thank you, Alex, and good morning, everyone. Over $50 billion in AUM is indeed a landmark to be proud of. And as Alex mentioned, our strong momentum continued as we raised $1.5 billion in the third quarter and $6 billion year-to-date. Our fundraising success shows how the strategic investments we have been making in our investment platforms, products, and distribution capabilities are paying off. We entered the fourth quarter confident in our ability to achieve our objectives for this year. Now let's review our third quarter results in more detail. In light of our robust fundraising year-to-date, we are well on track to exceed the high end of our full-year target of $6.6 billion against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty and volatility. Our fee AUM rose 14% year-over-year and 4% sequentially to approximately $38.8 billion. The strong year-over-year growth reflects the combination of solid organic net inflows of $1.8 billion, positive contribution from strong investment performance, and the acquisition of the Brazilian REITs we discussed during our last earnings call, which we concluded this quarter. Our fee-earning AUM growth continues to highlight our expanding fundraising capabilities and deployment opportunities, coupled with the stickiness and resiliency of our asset base. In addition, our fee-earning AUM is also benefiting from a declining rate of redemptions. Pending fee-earning AUM of $3.2 billion, combined with our fundraising goals, the 22% of fee AUM that are in permanent capital vehicles, the almost 35% of fee AUM in drawdown funds with an average life of 6 years, and the overall stickiness of our asset base together highlight our ongoing ability to generate net organic fee AUM growth over time. Total revenue in the third quarter reached $84.6 million, up 11% year-over-year and about 4% sequentially. This quarter included $1.3 million of catch-up fees. Our management fee rate averaged 94 basis points over the last trailing 4 quarters. As we reviewed at our December 9, 2024 Investor Day, we are steadily diversifying our business and introducing new investment strategies and product structures, which are key drivers of our growth. Consequently, our management fee rate will continue to evolve, and we expect our fee rate to trend toward 90 basis points over the coming quarters but with the potential to vary depending on the mix. Moving on to operating expenses, which include personnel and G&A expenses, totaled approximately $34.4 million in the quarter, flat versus the second quarter of 2025 and prior year. We remain focused on controlling expenses and capturing operating efficiency even as we continue to reinvest in the business. Looking ahead, we believe the third quarter personnel and G&A expenses combined are a good baseline for the next quarter. Putting it all together, Patria delivered fee-related earnings of $49.5 million in the quarter, up 22% versus the prior year and 7% sequentially, with an FRE margin that rose more than 500 basis points versus the third quarter of 2024 and 170 basis points sequentially to 58.5%. We remind everyone that the fourth quarter is often our strongest quarter in terms of FRE margin, driven by the recognition of most of our high-margin incentive fees from our credit and public equity platforms. We continue to expect the full year margin to fall within the range of our 58% to 60% guidance. As Alex mentioned, as we enter the last quarter of the year and our visibility into the remainder of the 2025 improves, we expect fee-related earnings for the full year to be slightly above the entry level of our FRE target range of $200 million to $225 million. Additionally, as Alex also noted, we expect to generate $225 million to $245 million of FRE in 2026, and we remain on track to deliver our 2027 FRE target of $260 million to $290 million with an FRE margin objective of 58% to 60%. As a reminder, about 10% of our 2027 FRE target reflects future potential M&A. Although we did not generate any performance-related earnings in the third quarter, subsequent to the quarter-end, we had multiple monetization events in our Infrastructure Fund III, which we expect will generate approximately $15 million of pro forma-related earnings in the fourth quarter with the potential to move higher if we have additional monetizations over the remaining two months of the year. We continue to expect Infrastructure III, which pro forma for the recent monetization had approximately $45 million of net accrued performance fees at the quarter end, to be the main source of PRE through 2026. Next, our net financial and other income and expenses in the third quarter of 2025 totaled a negative of $1 million versus a negative of $4 million in the second quarter of 2025. This sequential improvement mainly reflects greater contribution from Trio, our energy trading platform of $1.7 million in the quarter compared to $0.7 million in the second quarter of 2025. Additionally, lower average debt over the course of the third quarter also contributed to the lower financial expense. As of the end of the third quarter, net debt totaled approximately $108 million, and our net debt to FRE ratio of 0.6 times was well below our long-term guidance of 1 times. As we manage our cash flow and capital structure over the balance of the year, we expect our debt levels to remain relatively unchanged as we do not have any relevant M&A payment for this year. Our current deferred M&A-related cash payment through 2028 will be approximately $95 million, excluding potential earn-outs. In addition, we entered into a total return swap, or TRS, with a financial institution during the third quarter, which under the terms of the swap purchased 1.5 million shares on our behalf. We expect to settle the cost of the TRS by mid-2026 and transfer the shares to Patria, which we plan to retire. Our effective tax rate in the third quarter of 3.3% mainly reflects credits related to our U.K. operations. We expect our tax rate over the coming years to hover around 10% annually, but will vary quarter by quarter, depending on the evolving mix of our business, although we expect 2025 to be below 10%. In the third quarter of 2025, we generated $46.9 million of distributable earnings, up 34% versus the third quarter of 2024, and DE per share of $0.30, up 31% year-over-year and 22% sequentially, mainly reflecting higher FRE helped by lower net financial and other income expenses, lower tax, and on a sequential basis, lower share count. As I mentioned during our last earnings call, the Board of Directors voted to renew and increase our share repurchase program, and we have the authorization to repurchase up to 3 million shares. In the third quarter, Patria entered a total return swap with a financial institution, which under the terms of the swap purchased 1.5 million shares on our behalf. Considering the nature of the TRS, we finished the quarter at 158 million shares and continue to expect the share count to average between 158 million and 160 million from 2025 to 2027, inclusive of additional share repurchase, which will be focused on offsetting stock-based compensation. Finally, as announced during our December 9, 2024 Investor Day, the Board had approved an annual dividend of $0.60 per share for 2025. With that, we declared a dividend of $0.15 per share for the third quarter. Also, it is important to note that the Board has now approved a total annual dividend of $0.65 per share for 2026. Overall, we are very pleased with our third quarter results and the momentum we have built as we continue to diversify and improve the resilience of our business. We believe we are on track to meet the various targets we shared with you, and we are excited regarding the growth opportunity that lies ahead of us. Thank you for everyone for dialing in, and we are now ready to answer your questions.

Our first question comes from Rodrigo Ferreira at Bank of America.

You've raised $6 billion year-to-date and are on track to exceed the $6.6 billion full-year target. Given the strong momentum, how are you thinking about the pacing of capital deployment, especially with the $3.2 billion in pending fee-earning AUM?

Thank you for the question and for joining the call. We are very pleased with the $6.6 billion raised by the end of the third quarter of 2025. As I indicated earlier, in the past year, we raised $6.9 billion, which makes us confident that we will likely surpass the $6.6 billion guidance. We currently have over $3 billion in pending fee-earning assets under management, which we expect to deploy over the next 12 to 18 months. Our pipeline is quite active, particularly in infrastructure. A significant portion of the fee-paying assets comes from our infrastructure initiatives, particularly as we completed fundraising for our flagship vintage Fund V, which totals around $2.9 billion in 2025. The capital raised will primarily be invested in our fifth vintage infrastructure initiatives, including co-investment vehicles that are generating fees alongside closed-end Fund V. Additionally, we have raised capital that we plan to invest in our secondary strategy and GPMS. We anticipate deploying most of this pending fee-earning assets under management within the next 12 to 18 months. I hope that addresses your question.

No, that was great. And then for my follow-up, can you give us an update on how you're thinking about inorganic growth at this moment? I know we have the $14 billion Investor Day guidance. But at this moment, what asset classes or geographies are you most interested in?

Yes. Well, we had guided that we would try not to do any acquisitions in 2025; that we will try then to restart our acquisition efforts at the end of 2025 or in 2026. Of course, it's easier said than done. I joke that sometimes mergers and acquisitions (M&A) is a mystery and anguish, right? You never know when you're going to sign a deal. But jokes aside, I think we managed to do that. Now we're finishing 2025 because we wanted to have a full four quarters, six quarters of no M&A. As we mentioned, the last 12 months, the last four quarters, all the numbers that we just posted are pure organic fundraising, organic growth, organic-related numbers. And we wanted to have that pause to show us and of course, investors and stakeholders that our strategy was working and that the acquisitions that we did were being integrated. You saw that we are very, very disciplined on the cost level, you can see it in the third quarter results, and you're going to see it in the full-year results. So this was an important checkpoint that we paused, integrated, and fundraised for these new asset classes that we acquired. We controlled costs, etc. As we move into 2026 and 2027, we would like to turn on our inorganic expansion, which is important for us to complement our menu offerings and also expand our geographical footprint. And what we see going on right now is that most of the activity is in the real estate and credit arenas. So these two asset classes are the ones that are in negotiations in a more advanced phase, coming in third place are our infrastructure-related strategies. And of course, this has to do as well with the strategies that have been performing the best in fundraising and garnering the highest interest level from our clients. On the geography side, I think we will expand our GPMS, Global Private Market Solutions, which we acquired as a carve-out from the asset manager Aberdeen. This business is mostly focused on Europe, with two-thirds of the business being European-focused. We would like to expand our U.S. side of this business to become more of a global solutions provider for private equity, primary, secondaries, and co-invest. So the U.S. would be a geography we are looking into. I think the acquisitions we are going to do there might not be very substantial, which is why I prioritize it lower. I go back to the infrastructure and credit, then comes GPMS on the relevant size, including geography, U.S. and Mexico for real estate and credit. We continue to enhance our presence, of course, in the geographies that we already exist, mainly in Brazil. We are trying to spearhead and be a protagonist of this industry consolidation. We see several asset managers in our industry pushing that agenda, from the mega ones to the large ones. Now, with a $50 billion asset manager, I think we joined the club of the other $50 billion asset managers. So I think we have the mega ones managing close to $1 trillion, and there’s a second group of around 20 that manage globally between $100 billion and $300 billion. And then we come in this third group, which is around #30 or #31 globally. Of course, so the second group of $50 billion asset managers is all actually pushing this consolidation agenda. Interestingly, these $50 billion managers tend to have a geographic origin. Some are Asian, another Middle Eastern, while we have two Europeans, a couple of Americans, and us, I think the only Latin firm doing exactly what we do, pursuing this consolidation agenda in our respective regions of origin, first and foremost, in our case, Latin America, of course, and then expanding globally with one or two asset classes or strategies. Our GPMS was the chosen one. I hope that answers your question.

Our next question comes from Tito Labarta at Goldman Sachs.

A couple of questions. Just on the FRE guidance for this year, you mentioned you'd like to be slightly above the lower end of the range. Just looking at the trends right now, if FRE is similar in the fourth quarter, you'd be around $188 million. Should we assume that the difference to get you to above that $200 million would mostly come from the incentive fees that you most typically get in the fourth quarter? Or would there be any other potential upside that we could see in the fourth quarter other than the incentive fees? And then I have a second question.

Thanks, Tito. Nice talking to you, and thanks for participating in our call. I think that both, I think mainly the numbers that you just went through there make sense. We expect around $10 million to $12 million coming from incentive fees, and that's a relevant portion of the FRE contributor for the fourth quarter of 2025. In addition, but not at this level of relevance in absolute dollar terms, we have more FRE coming from management fees because the management fees are being driven by the fundraising that we just described during our earnings call and in answering Diego's question. All that fundraising is already translating into more management fees, and that same team is managing. So that actually, then flows down to fee-related earnings. But in terms of absolute value importance, you are correct. I think that $10 million to $12 million coming from incentive fees is the number one contributor for us to then surpass the $200 million of FRE, which is the entry level of our guidance. Coming second would be the contribution from the fundraising that is translating into fee earnings in the fourth quarter, as we have more fee earnings AUM in the fourth quarter than we had in the third, more in the third than we had in the second, and so on and so forth because we are managing to fundraise more than what we expected. I'll give you one example here just to know also using your question here to throw in another interesting subject that I would like to cover. We didn't cover this in the call because we got that news late last night, but our data center platform did receive approval from the Brazilian government of a very interesting regulatory framework that basically enables exporting data from these incentivized areas in Brazil under an incentivized tax framework. Basically, you don't pay taxes as a data center exports data. So the data that is processed in these data centers in Brazil carries this very interesting tax advantage. Additionally, if you import the machinery equipment to build a data center, you also don't pay any import tariffs. Brazil is kind of mimicking what other regions in the world did, like in Malaysia and Singapore, to attract massive data center-related investments. The Brazilian government is at the forefront in approving the legislation as of yesterday. And of course, an additional advantage of building these data centers in Brazil is the vast availability of renewable energy, along with low water consumption and water recycling that we have in our specific data center design. And of course, you know about the renewable energy in Brazil and in our project per se, which will leverage this regulatory framework approved by the Brazilian government. We have been working with them very intensively over the last quarters. We already have an offtaker, a relevant offtaker, to build a 200-megawatt data center that consumes around 300 megawatts of energy. We already have the energy provider, in this case, Casa dos Ventos, which is 100% renewable. We also have several of the licenses, and most importantly, to connect our data center to the substations that connect to the submarine cables. The real estate that we have already identified and optioned is very close to the submarine cables that connect the Brazilian coastline with the major regions of the world. These cables help reduce latency when processing data in Brazilian data centers. We are putting up $2 billion in construction infrastructure. The offtake is putting up approximately $8 billion. So it's a $10 billion project. We can threefold, fourfold, or fivefold that, because it's a 200-megawatt capacity, and there is potential for us to increase that with the same offtaker, who has an interest in more than doubling it. Additionally, we are also interested in the project and could work with other offtakers as well. If you see, we manage approximately $4 billion to $4.5 billion of fee-earning AUM for our infrastructure vertical. We can basically double that with the fee-paying SMAs dedicated to these data center platforms. So it's extremely interesting. We also did similar SMA joint venture frameworks to invest in toll roads in Brazil, also through our infrastructure vertical, also answering Rodrigo's question, which will also be funded through our Infrastructure Fund V's capital raised and will be invested into fee-earning AUM and revenues. We won a couple of toll roads through this platform, which we call Run or Union Unified. This has not only Infrastructure Fund V but also various significant large institutional investors of ours, mainly sovereign funds investing in that platform. Again, we won two concessions through that platform, and we see that we can continue growing similarly it’s a $1 billion commitment, but it can become three, four, or fivefold as we look into the future. So we see these platforms in toll roads, which is already up and running and has already won two concessions, and in data centers where we have this project that I just described. The company there is called Omnia, and we see other potential platforms and infrastructure-related projects throughout Latin America where we can collaborate with our infrastructure fund or leverage a JV kind of framework, SMA kind of framework to invest significant amounts of money in various infrastructure-related projects in Latin America. And all of that transforms, because all of them are fee-paying, into fee-earning AUM that fuels our revenues and numbers going forward. As we look into 2026 and 2027, we feel comfortable that we will continue with the good pace of fundraising and good pace of FRE increase that we went through during the call today. Thank you. Sorry to take a long answer to your question by using the data center as an example, but I think it’s important.

Yes, no, very helpful. Thank you, Alex, for all the color. And then just one other quick question on your performance fees. I mean, I think you mentioned Infrastructure III is sort of the main likely place where you can maybe realize some performance fees in the near term. In the past, we've seen in Q4 that we typically can realize them? Just any color you can give on your ability to realize some of these performance fees in the short term?

Yes. After the third quarter ended and into October 2025, we had realization events that we highlighted, which increased our performance-related earnings by $15 million. Up to the end of the third quarter, we had a small total of $1 million, so now we are looking at $16 million in performance-related fees year-to-date as of the end of October. We are actively pursuing additional realizations in November and December, which may come from our Infrastructure Fund III in the last 60 days of the year. However, as you know, mergers and acquisitions can be unpredictable. A deal could be signed, or it may get pushed to early 2026, which is part of the process. That's why we like to provide a broader perspective on the timing of realizing performance fees. Looking ahead to 2026 and 2027, we still anticipate $120 million to $140 million in total, of which we have already delivered around $45 million. We expect some further realizations by the end of this year, and we are seeing a good pace along with high-quality investors, including strategic foreign investors entering the region. For instance, a French toll road operator is making its first move into Brazil by purchasing one of our toll roads, and another French parking lot company, Indigo, has invested in our parking lot business. High-quality sovereign funds are also acquiring our assets. This approach aligns with our long-term strategy that has worked for 25 years in infrastructure. We develop funds and once an asset is developed, we sell it to strategic investors, including sovereign and pure strategic funds. We anticipate this trend to evolve closer to 2025 rather than 2026. Some of our private equity strategies also show a good chance of generating performance fees, particularly our growth and venture funds, which could yield interesting results later in the three-year plan ending in 2027. We expect Infrastructure Fund III to realize most of its performance fees during 2026, and in 2027, some of our private equity funds have promising prospects for realizations, as many of these investments are maturing. For example, we recently sold two assets from our growth fund: one was an online psychology business, and the other an online education business. The proceeds from these sales contribute to return principal and hurdle rates, after which we can start generating fees. I see these realizations already occurring, and I mentioned two examples from this year, with other potential deals likely to be realized in 2026, which will help return capital to investors and generate performance fees in 2027. I can provide a more in-depth view for the next 24 to 36 months, as I see realizations accumulating and approaching the principal and hurdle rates. We expect more private equity-related strategies for 2027, along with more infrastructure-related strategies for 2025 and 2026. I hope this addresses your question.

Our next question comes from Ricardo Buchpiguel at BTG.

Can you please provide an update on how the cross-sell of the GPMS products to Pat LP should evolve over the next few years? The vertical is now growing around 8% year-over-year, the AUM. So it will be interesting also to hear what we can in terms of potential acceleration over the next, I don't know, 3 years without considering M&A on this vertical?

Yes. Ricardo, thanks for participating and for your question. I think it's a critical aspect. When we did the acquisition, we saw a couple of phases in raising money from all of our client base. I think Phase 1 was to gain the confidence of the current clients, right? We, as a Latin origin company, acquiring a business in the U.K., of course, we conducted due diligence prior to that and heard from clients we did, of course, interviews with these clients, both blinding and non-blinding interviews with key clients of this business. They showed a lot of thumbs up. They really like the team. Depending on the buyer, they indicated they would, of course, support that new buyer. So Phase 1 was reconnecting with these clients post-closing, which we did. As you know, we took over the business in April of 2024, approximately a year ago. That went very well, and the clients’ positive responses were evident in a concrete manner. They invested more with us—they invested more because they’re happy and they didn’t redeem, which is what happened. Over the last 12 to 14 or 15 months, we've seen clients re-upping. We saw several special secondaries opportunities in Fund #5, which is a blind-structured fund. We saw SMAs continuing to receive new capital and renewals. Then I think we started with secondaries opportunities Fund # 5 fundraising to attract new clients—new clients from our base and clients that were not in our base. We're glad to be successful there, and we are well on plan to reach our target— I think it’s going to exceed its target. We were targeting around $500 million for that, and I believe that we could reach that number. It's typically not very common these days for a blind structure fund to hit their targets, but we are surpassing that— I think 10% to 20% beyond the set goal, which is quite rare. That was the second phase—the real test, as I say, is when clients actually provide more money. And that’s exactly what happened in secondaries opportunities Fund # 5—not just from our own base, but with clients that weren’t even our clients, since we offered a new product to them. We’re living through Phase #2 currently. Of course, Phase #3 involves launching more products from the GPMS structure. We have so many new strategies planned, including a blind fund structure and a pure co-investment fund that we are considering launching early next year. We are looking to leverage the co-investments, as the team has done over 100 co-investments through the SMAs with an impressive track record reflecting net IRRs between 16% to 20%. As we prepare to show the investors the exceptional outcomes the team delivered with that specific strategy, we will proceed to raise a closed-end fund— our co-investment fund #1. We anticipate seeing traction with this and aim to take it on the road early next year. This represents Phase #3, where we expect to offer a new product to existing and new investors. I can mention several other products that are also in our pipeline, stemming from GPMS strategies. We have a potential mid-market credit fund. We could possibly develop a stake fund related to GP management. Many exciting new possibilities are in store for the upcoming years. On the Latin American side, we continue to raise a significant amount from Latin American investors in our GPMS products. Less as we focus on bringing them into our strategy and more from other global asset managers we represent in the region. Carlyle being one, as you all know. We have experienced significant success with this strategy, and we raised a considerable amount of money with Latin American institutional investors primarily for Carlyle-related funds while working with AlpInvest, which provides solutions for Carlyle to help us develop solutions for our institutional clients in Latin America. We’re pleased with that too.

That's clear. And for my follow-up question on capital return, it would be interesting if you could provide more color on the total return swap mechanism you mentioned in the call and also give more details on the rationale for the $0.65 per share dividend that you also announced for next year.

Thank you for those two questions. The TRS is an intriguing way to execute a share buyback program. I'll provide my thoughts on it. Let’s take a couple of steps back. Late last year, we received Board approval for a $3 million share buyback program. Early this year, that approval was increased to allow the repurchase of up to 3 million shares. When the CEO and the management team, along with Ana, our CFO, evaluated alternatives to execute this share buyback program, we concluded that the TRS total return swap was one of the most appealing options. First of all, for confidentiality and conflict reasons, you outsource the execution of the share buyback to a third party, in this case, to a financial institution. So you provide the financial institution a plan, set an order, and establish a plan for how you're going to buy a predetermined number of shares during this period. This allows a pure execution without any conflicts of interest or risks on the part of the company. Secondly, it also presents financial advantages as you buy back shares. It’s similar to obtaining a loan from a bank, but we aren’t obligated to repay that loan within a year, as we might have the option to ask the financial institution to sell the shares back to the market, settling the loan that way. Of course, if the shares are traded at a lower value, we will have to cover the difference, but since it's asset-backed, the financial institution possesses that asset—in this case, the shares—and can sell them back into the market. During the share buyback process, any dividends from these shares flow back to the company. The net cost is effectively the interest rate charged by the financial institution, minus the dividends received. Therefore, within a year, the overall cost of this financing is lower than a pure loan. The first two reasons are why we opted for a total return swap: maintaining confidentiality regarding execution while managing compliance and execution risks effectively. We bought— or rather, the financial institution bought—5 million shares during the third quarter, leaving our share count at 158 million shares as of the end of September 2025. Regarding the $0.65 per share dividend, we wanted to keep transferring part of our revenue growth, fee-related earnings, and distributable earnings to shareholders. The lower interest rates in the U.S. prompted us to evaluate. U.S. Treasury bills are now yielding around 7.5% annually. When considering our growth rate, raising our dividends by approximately 10% aligns well—65 cents is therefore a reasonable number. In calculation terms, if you aim for a dividend yield similar to what U.S. Treasury securities pay in the short term, we should not only pay more dividends to shareholders but also provide backing for a share buyback program. Together, we measure our growth rate of dividend yield and support the stock price around $17 to $17.3. Therefore, the $0.65 aligns with a yield of 3.75% based on $17.3. This rationale supports both dividend growth and financial performance. I hope I answered your question.

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Alex Saigh, Patria's CEO.

Thank you, Rina. Well, thank you very much to all participants. I was extremely happy to be able to answer so many interesting questions and very happy that all of you participated. Again, we had a solid third quarter, looking to a very solid, very positive 2025, and even more so into 2026 and '27. I feel comfortable that we're going to deliver our guidance numbers announced on PAC Day in December 2024. So thanks again for your patience. Thanks for participating. I hope to see you in person until the end of the year. We are trying to organize a couple of roadshows and in-person meetings in Sao Paulo, New York, and London. Hopefully, I’ll see you in one of these three meetings and roadshows. See you soon. Thanks a lot. Bye-bye.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.