Ryanair Holdings PLC Q1 FY2020 Earnings Call

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. You're very welcome to the Ryanair Q1 Results Conference Presentation. My name is Michael O’Leary, I'm the Group CEO and I’m joined today by Neil Sorahan our CFO. We'll run straight into the slide presentation. As you've all seen, the model of Ryanair remains all deemed. We had the lowest fare/lower cost carrier. We are number one for traffic of 152 million passengers for the full year, this year up 6% - 7% on last year. We expect to maintain that goal particularly this winter. We expect other EU airline failures and sales to accelerate. Malta Air in the quarter has joined the Group and the fundamental proposition of Ryanair is that the lowest cost wins. We’re spreading our offering across the continent. We have 86 bases, 235 airports, over 2,100 routes. And in FY '20, we have new bases in Marseille, Bordeaux and Toulouse in France; in Southend, UK; in Berlin; Tegel in Germany and new country markets in Ukraine, Turkey and Lebanon. We remain on track to deliver our promise of 200 million passengers annually by FY '24. In last year, our air fares continued to fall. It’s one of the reasons why our profits are down this morning. This is one of the good reasons for a decline in profit. Our customers are getting better value than ever before. Our fares in the last year have fallen 6%, but we beat every other airline in Europe on cost and by a considerable distance. And the gap between us and our competitors is getting wider. On labor, we’re slightly ahead of Wizz. They have lower cost, Central European contracts, but we're significantly cheaper and operationally more efficient than easyJet and Norwegian. We’ve significantly lower costs in terms of airport and handling because our larger aircraft have a 25 million turnaround, and in particular, the aircraft ownership and maintenance, we are stunningly below the unit cost of all our competitors. We believe we can continue to maintain that low cost advantage. That is what underpins our ability to offer lower fares and that in turn allows Ryanair to continue to grow. Neil?

In the quarter, we saw our traffic grow by 11% to 42 million guests. Revenue per passenger was flat at €55 with a 6% reduction in average fare due to overcapacity in Europe, and price simulation in the UK was offset by a very strong performance in ancillaries, which were up 14% per guest. Unit costs, ex-fuel, were up 4% and fuel costs have increased by €150 million. So, as a result, profit after tax was down 21%, at €243 million in the quarter. Just to briefly touch on current developments - we have lower fares and higher fuel costs. They are affecting our earnings, but they’re also affecting the earnings of all our competitors. We believe that this will drive more airline failures and sales in the second half of the year. Short-term price weakness is present, but Ryanair remains the structural winner. The MAX -200 deliveries have been delayed until at least Q4 this year. We now expect to take the first deliveries of our MAX-200 probably in January or February of 2020, depending on the aircraft returning to service in September or early October. That does mean that we won't be able to take the original 58 aircraft that we had planned for summer 2020. We think it’s best to plan for 30 additional aircraft for summer 2020, which means slower growth next summer and into FY '21. The Group structure continues to evolve. We now have four substantial group airlines: Buzz in Poland, Lauda based in Vienna, Malta Air which joined the Group in the quarter based in Valletta, and Ryanair DAC which was the old Ryanair. For now, we've left Ryanair UK off that because we won't need it unless there is a hard Brexit. We are Europe’s cleanest and greenest airline. This year, we expect to pay over €600 million in environmental taxes, which I think dispels the myth that airlines have a free run or some kind of a free ride when it comes to the environment. We’re not; we're paying very heavy environmental taxes, despite the fact that we are investing massively to reduce our environmental footprint. We have also launched a €700 million share buyback in May, and €100 million has been returned to shareholders in the buyback period in the first quarter. Our guidance remains unchanged. So our profit after tax for the full year is still in a reasonably wide range of €750 million to €950 million. The reason for this range is that we have sold visibility on airfare in the second half of the year. Malta Air, a new Maltese airline, will have our fixed-based aircraft in Valletta this winter and we will also transfer most of the aircraft that we have based in France, Italy, and Germany onto the Maltese AOC. We started that process in May and it continues on a weekly and monthly basis. The advantage is that it allows our crews in Germany, Italy, and France to pay their taxes locally. This is a key part of the agreement we reached with unions in those countries to move to local contracts and local taxation, moving them away from historically paying Irish income tax because they were on an Irish AOC. The management team is being built rapidly and is based in Malta, and the Malta AOC facilitates the opening of new routes into North Africa and the Middle East, which wouldn’t have been possible as an Irish-registered airline. Just to touch briefly on the MAX update, there is still considerable uncertainty. We have 210 aircraft on order. We expect to get five in advance of this summer, but they've been delayed. We plan to have 58 in place for summer 2020; we now think that will be about 30 aircraft. We are actively working through plans at the moment to reduce aircraft on certain bases and close others this winter from November because if we don’t have these new aircraft coming in next summer, there is no point in flying them during the winter as well. There will still be some new bases and routes for summer 2020, but we will have to adjust the schedule to accommodate this slower growth rate. This means that instead of going to 162 million passengers in FY '21, we will grow to about 157 million passengers. We continue our dialogue with Boeing, and pre-delivery payments have been frozen. We expect Boeing to cover these losses, and you'll see Boeing making provisions for that in their accounts. However, we remain committed to the game changer aircraft, which offer us 4% more seats and 16% lower fuel consumption per seat. These are not just operationally efficient; they are environmentally efficient as well, and they facilitate Ryanair's growth to 200 million guests by FY '24. Regarding our environmental commitment, we're the first airline to publish monthly CO2 emissions in 2019. We are already the lowest emitter among major EU airlines. We are determined to cut that by a further 10% by 2030 over the next decade. We paid over €540 million in environmental taxes in 2018, and that will rise to over €600 million in 2019. We've committed our sales to being plastic-free within five years. We are also the first airline to have a voluntary carbon offset program as part of the booking process. All funds raised for that offset program, about 2% of our last year issues, will be allocated to work with climate partners here in Ireland, in Portland, and in Africa. The 210 new Boeing MAX aircraft will allow us to carry more passengers while having much lower fuel consumption and a 40% reduction in noise emissions. Here’s just a demonstration of the environmental taxes we paid last year and what we expect to pay this year. I would draw your attention to the fact that it runs at around 10% - it’s a tax of about 10% per ticket, which is an incredibly high rate of tax for the environment.

Just on the guidance, we’re guiding around our passengers and our results, 7% between 152 million to 153 million in the current year. We believe we’ll be at the lower end of the minus 2% to plus 1% range for the year until we’re going to continue to perform well, which is why we’re guiding revenue per passenger in a range of plus 2% to plus 3% on a full-year basis. Unit cost ex-fuel should continue to lead even MAX, just up 2%. We've just remained unchanged on our previous guidance. Fuel, we believe will be up about €450 million on a full-year basis, and as a result, profit after tax will be in a range of €750 million to €950 million for the full year. This, of course, depends on performance in peak summer bookings over which we still haven't got full visibility, and H2 progress, as well as what happens in relation to Brexit in October.

Well done, thanks Michael.

Thank you. With that, we’ll now go to the Q&A.

Revenue per passenger was flat at €55, hedged fares and ancillaries performed?

Yes, we saw a 6% reduction in fares in the quarter. We stimulated an 11% increase in traffic to just over 42 million customers. This, however, was offset by a very strong performance in ancillary revenue of 14% on a passenger basis totaling just under €0.8 billion in total revenues for the quarter, stimulated by services like our reserved seating and priority boarding which continue to perform very well.

What is your outlook for fares for the remainder of the year?

Well, you can see that underlying airfare in the first half of the year is down 6%. We have zero visibility on airfares into the second half of the year, but we expect them to come in towards the lower end of our minus 2% to plus 1% range. Most of our price offers are due to softer consumer sentiment in the UK and excess capacity, particularly with Lufthansa and Eurowings in the German market, leading to very low pricing in the German and Australian markets.

Will the strong performance in the ancillary revenues continue?

I think so. As I mentioned, we had a very strong performance in Q1. We expect services like priority boarding to continue to perform well, particularly for the remainder of the first half of the year. We continue to expect our Labs to contribute strongly to customer choice and performance. So as a result, we’re guiding revenue capacity here in a range of plus 2% to plus 3% on a full-year basis, which is all down to the strong ancillary performance.

Ex-fuel costs rose 4% in Q1 FY '20, why?

Principally, it was due to consolidating costs in Q1 this year that weren't consolidated in the comparable Q1 prior quarter, and we’ve also had a significant increase in staff costs. The 20% pay increase that we negotiated at the start of 2018, along with ramping up pilot and cabin crew recruitment in advance of the peak summer schedule this year. We’ve also encountered a number of one-off costs related to returning nine operating lease aircraft to Lufthansa from Laudamotion, the last of which were pre-delivered at the end of June.

Is there any change to your full year ex-fuel unit cost guidance from plus 2%?

No, we’re sticking with the 2% despite continued delays in the MAX delivery, so just over 2% on a full-year basis.

Any update on your fuel hedging?

Yes, we’re now 37% hedged into FY '21 at about $53 per barrel. We continue to look for opportunities to add to that at rates of under $60 a barrel. I believe we are consistently in line with our rolling program to be typically 90% hedged on a 12-month basis.

How is on-time performance?

Significantly improved year-on-year. We’ve invested heavily over the last year in spare parts and more engineering and quickly changing our contractors we're handling in Stansted, Poland, and Spain. As a result, we’ve seen a 7 percentage point improvement in on-time performance in the past six months and we believe a 10 percentage point improvement in the quarter. Cancellations are well down year-on-year; we had just 20 cancellations in June, for example, as opposed to nearly 1,200 in the prior year comparable. That said, we continue to encounter ATC disruptions over the weekend, which negatively impacts punctuality for all our airlines. We continue to work well with Wizz Airlines for Europe to encourage air traffic controllers to staff up their numbers and to address overflight issues, achieving over 90% on-time performance excluding ATC disruptions in the quarter.

What's the latest update on the MAX?

Deliveries are delayed. We don’t expect the MAX to return to service until September or October at the earliest this year. That means we’re now expecting the first of our game changer aircraft probably in January or February of 2020. Therefore, we will now take delivery of about 30 aircraft for the summer peak of 2020, instead of the 58 originally planned. This could move; it could be slightly higher or lower depending on when the MAX is approved by regulators to return to service. For the purposes of our plan at the moment, that means we will slow down our growth rate in summer 2020. We anticipate delivering about 157 million passengers in FY '21 as opposed to previously 162 million.

Have you started discussions at your airports?

We have, but at this stage, it would be inappropriate for me to comment on any details of estimates as the negotiation is confidential.

Are you talking to Boeing?

We are. I mean, we're in daily contact with not just Boeing, but also with the ASA to assist the process of getting the MAX aircraft returned to service.

Is there any change to your FY '24 target of 200 million guests per annum?

No, we're still targeting 200 million by March 2024. As Michael mentioned earlier, growth will increase by about 3% next year to 157 million, which is slightly slower than we had anticipated; however, we believe we will catch that up in future years.

What does this mean for your cost-cutting initiatives?

It means we won’t achieve the cost reductions and unit cost improvements that we had hoped the MAX aircraft would deliver in the second half of the year. However, we're still identifying other areas where we're reducing expenses, which is why we're holding onto our 2% unit cost increase for the full year. Some of that was particularly contingent on getting the MAX aircraft in, which now won’t arrive, but we are making up cost savings elsewhere.

What is the impact of the new IFRS-16 lease accounting standard on the balance sheet of Q1?

For us, it is relatively immaterial; only 6% of our lease fees. So like most other airlines, there is not a huge impact. The P&L impact was totally immaterial in the quarter. At quarter end, however, on the balance sheet, we had about another €220 million of debt. This is expected to increase to about €330 million by year-end due to more leases coming into the fleet over the next few months. That said, in a quarter where we had buybacks, the effect of IFRS-16 showed a marginal net debt reduction of just €19 million.

How is the buyback progressing?

Well, we've completed about €100 million in the quarter. That means we still have €600 million to go. We expect to run that program out until the end of the calendar year, and it will be critical in the run-up to any potential Brexit scenario, if a hard Brexit is the outcome of the Brexit discussions at the end of October.

Can you provide an update on Malta Air?

Yes, Malta became the fourth main operational airline in the group back in June. It has multi-AOC. We recently appointed a new management team based in Valletta. This operation will have six based multi-aircraft. They'll transition the AOC this winter and we aim to grow it to 10 aircraft over the next three years. Importantly, it will also operate our bases in France, Germany, and Italy, allowing our crews to pay their taxes locally in those markets, which is crucial for individual pilots, cabin crew, and unions. We’re also excited about the opportunities that this will create to open up new markets in North Africa and the Middle East, in addition to expanding our network from Malta.

How are Lauda and Buzz developing?

Lauda is performing strongly. This summer, it will operate a fleet of 20 operating lease A320s, actually at a lower cash cost than the nine aircraft that we're reducing from Lufthansa this time last year. Traffic is strong; we expect to carry more than 4 million passengers in the next year, and the losses will be significantly reduced from just under €140 million last year, although we’re still working to turn that around. Buzz is operating profitably in its second year, operating seven aircrafts in the charter market in Poland this summer, and trading well. Most of Ryanair's Polish-based aircraft are now being operated by Buzz. We’ll see some of those aircraft and uniforms rebranded as Buzz later this year.

How do you see European short-haul developing this winter?

I think we will see more airline failures and consolidation over the next number of months. The current high fuel environments, particularly for any hedged carriers, will cause significant problems. Airlines will start to feel the effects of peak cash flow as we move into winter, and they’re likely to struggle with cash flow issues during this time. There are already a couple of airlines up for sale, including Thomas Cook and Alitalia, which should be resolved fairly soon. Thus, I think there are going to be many opportunities for growth over the coming months and years for Ryanair Group Airlines.

How is Ryanair's environmental performance?

As you see, we're leading as the greenest and cleanest airline in Europe. We're the first airline to publish our monthly CO2 emissions. We have the lowest CO2 emissions among major European airlines. We’ve published the environmental tax we've paid last year and again this year. Our investment in the MAX aircraft program will significantly reduce both our fuel consumption and our noise emissions over the next decade.

What are your thoughts on the recent aviation tax proposals in Europe?

As Michael mentioned, we’ve already published the high-level taxes we paid towards environmental issues every year. We paid over €540 million last year. We expect that to increase to €630 million in the current year, which breaks down to more than €4 per passenger. So, in the context of an average fare of €36, we are paying substantial taxes that address these environmental concerns.

Is there any update on board succession?

Yes, the market is already aware that David Bonderman and Kyran McLaughlin will lead the Company until March 31 of this fiscal year, and they will step down from the Board in the summer of 2020. Stan McCarthy, who is now our Deputy Chairman, will succeed David as Chairman in the summer of 2020. Additionally, this morning, the Board is pleased to announce that Louise Phelan, who has served on the Board for over six years, a former senior PayPal executive, will take on the role of Senior Independent Director from Kyran McLaughlin when he steps down in the summer of 2020. We will have entirely refreshed the Board, and with the departure of David and Kyran, the two long-serving Non-Executive Directors will also have left the Board.

Is there any change to your FY '20 guidance?

No, we’re still projecting profit to be broadly flat in a range from €750 million to €950 million, as always there are a number of moving parts. Traffic will be up about 7%, just over 152 million passengers this year. We anticipate average fares will be down about 6% in the first half of the year. On an annualized basis, it will be at the lower end of the minus 2% to plus 1% fare range. Ancillaries, however, will continue to perform strongly, which is why we're guiding revenue per passenger in the range of plus 2% to plus 3%. Our fuel bill will be up about €450 million for the year. Our unit costs, ex-fuel, will be up just 2% despite the delays in the MAX delivery. Therefore, depending on closing bookings, H2 performance, and the absence of adverse Brexit events, we remain committed to the range of €750 million to €950 million.

Michael and Neil, thank you very much.

Thanks.

Thank you very much.