Ryanair Holdings PLC Q1 FY2023 Earnings Call

Good morning everyone. Welcome to the Ryanair Q1 Results Release Conference. I'm Michael O’Leary, the Group CEO, and I'm joined by Neil Sorahan, our Group CFO. We will start with some remarks from me, followed by a presentation from Neil, and then we will have a Q&A session. This morning, Ryanair reported a Q1 profit after tax of €170 million as traffic rebounded strongly after COVID, though at lower fares. This profit is lower than the €223 million reported in Q1 of FY 2020, the last pre-COVID year. In Q1, we welcomed 45.5 million passengers, up from 8.1 million the previous year. This recovery could have been stronger, but we faced challenges in April and Easter due to the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February. We have received 73 Boeing 737-8200 Gamechangers ahead of this summer. Our Summer 2022 capacity is available at about 115% of what it was in Summer 2019. We have also increased our fuel hedging for FY 2024 to 30%, while currently hedging at 80% this year. Our net debt has decreased to €400 million at the end of the quarter, down from €1.4 billion on March 31, due to strong cash flows from bookings and trading. Additionally, we have extended the leases on 29 A320s for our subsidiary Lauda Europe by up to four years to 2028 at favorable rates. This summer, we are excited to operate 73 new Boeing 737 Gamechanger aircraft, which carry 4% more passengers and reduce fuel consumption by 16% while cutting noise emissions by up to 40%. We continue to invest in our partnership with Trinity College Dublin's Sustainable Aviation Research Center, and in April, we announced a collaboration with Neste to power up to one-third of our flights to and from Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam with a 40% blend of sustainable aviation fuel. In April, Sustainalytics ranked Ryanair as the top airline in Europe and second globally for our ESG performance. Following the start of the post-COVID recovery in air travel this spring, we quickly worked with our trade unions to negotiate pay restoration agreements so we could restore previously reduced pay as soon as our operations return to pre-COVID levels. I’m pleased to report that agreements have been reached with unions representing over 80% of our pilots and more than 70% of our cabin crew. Significant progress is being made to finalize the remaining agreements. Our decision to collaborate with the unions and agree to pay cuts during COVID helped minimize job losses, allowing us to retain our pilots and cabin crew. This strategy has proven successful as many European airlines, airports, and service providers struggle to restore their workforces after the pandemic. Ryanair stands out among major EU airlines this summer, fully staffed with pilots, cabin crew, engineers, and handling staff at airports where we conduct our own operations, despite running at 115% of our pre-COVID capacity. Over the last two years, numerous airlines have gone bankrupt, and many legacy carriers, including Alitalia, TAP, SAS, and LOT, survived only by significantly cutting fleets and passenger capacity, despite receiving substantial state aid. These capacity reductions have opened up significant growth opportunities for Ryanair this summer to utilize our new fuel-efficient 737 Gamechangers. With Boeing expected to deliver over 50 more Gamechangers before Summer 2023, we are actively recruiting and training a large number of pilots, cabin crew, and engineers. Approximately 50% of our capacity for Summer 2023 is now on sale, and we have announced new bases and growth opportunities in Belfast International and Venice, as well as new flight services from Bologna-Forli airport for winter 2022. Thanks to our order of 210 737 aircraft and available fleet capacity, Ryanair Group anticipates growing from 149 million passengers pre-COVID to over 225 million by FY 2026, capturing significant market shares across Europe. Regarding our outlook, we remain cautious but hopeful that the high vaccination rates in Europe will allow the airline and tourism industry to recover from COVID as 2022 progresses. However, we must acknowledge the possibility of new COVID variants emerging this autumn. Our experience with the Omicron variant last November severely impacted our Christmas traffic and yields, as did the Ukraine invasion in February, which affected our April bookings and yields, demonstrating how fragile the air travel market in Europe is. While Ryanair's recovery this summer has been strong, it remains fragile and heavily reliant on avoiding unforeseen negative developments related to COVID or Ukraine for the remainder of FY 2023. If no negative developments arise, we expect strong performance. However, if challenges do arise, we will need to respond accordingly. There are clear indications of strong pent-up demand for air travel, particularly for short-haul flights in Europe this summer. Although bookings are recovering well, they still trend closer to departure dates compared to pre-COVID norms. Currently, we have limited visibility into the second half of Q2 and almost none into the winter quarters, which are typically loss-making. For now, I’m pleased to share that average fares for Q2 are tracking ahead of peak core Summer 2019, increasing from a high single-digit percentage in Q1 to a low double-digit percentage. Ryanair plans to grow our FY 2023 scheduled traffic to about 165 million passengers, an 11% increase from FY 2020, though this could be affected by damage from the Russia-Ukraine conflict during April and Easter.

Yeah, sure Michael. Thanks very much and good morning, everybody. Ryanair has the lowest fares and lowest costs of any airline in Europe. We're number one for traffic and as Michael has already indicated, we're going to grow strongly from 149 million passengers pre-COVID to 165 million passengers this year. We're number one for customer service and enjoy strong environmental credentials with a B rating from CDP and indeed, Sustainalytics have now ranked as the number one European airline for ESG. Our balance sheet enjoys a strong BBB investment grade rating and it is this financial strength coupled with our lowest costs that make us the long-term winner in aviation in Europe. This summer we will operate 770 new routes and a 50 new bases as we return to growth and we're well set to grow to 225 million passengers by FY 2023 thanks to the Gamechanger order that we have 73 of them already in the fleet. We come into COVID with the lowest cost per passenger X fuel of any airline in Europe, €31 and indeed we've widened the gap between ourselves and competitors in the first quarter where that has now dropped to €30 and we would hope to build on that over the coming months and years. On the quarter itself, we saw a strong rebound in traffic to 45.5 million passengers from 8.1 million last year, a strong 92% load factor. Revenue while up 600% to 2.6 billion was badly impacted over the Easter periods due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and as a result, average fares were down approximately 4% compared to the same quarter, pre-COVID. Ancillaries however did perform well and helped offset some of that. Despite the fact that we grew by 330% sectors and 460% traffic, costs were only up 250%, which was a very strong indication of the cost control in the business over the course of the past number of months. As a result, profit improved from a loss last year of 273 million to 170 million in the quarter but still below the 243 million profit that we made in the first quarter of FY 2020. The balance sheet is improving. We finished the quarter with 4.6 billion in cash and an increase in unencumbered aircraft to 92%. But the important number here is the net debt, which has dropped significantly from 1.45 billion at the 31st of March year-end just to end at 2.4 billion at the end of this quarter. So we're on track to achieve our target of broadly neutral net cash, net debt over the next two years despite record CAPEX for the next two years. On current developments, summer capacity is 115% ahead of peak summer 2019. This is helped by our 73 Boeing Gamechangers which are now in the fleet. As Michael has already indicated there is a massive pent-up demand but there are operational challenges most outside of our control in the form of unprecedented air traffic control restrictions and airport delays. Our fuel is one of the best hedge books in the market at this point in time, 80% hedged, roughly 23 and we have increased cover to 30% for FY 2024, which is a big competitive advantage. We will grow to 165 million passengers this year, but we will do so on our load active yield passive strategy recovery into the second half, where we have very limited visibility at this point. We believe we will remain fragile and subject to any news flow in relation to the Ukrainian situation or indeed any new variants of COVID-19. And of course, sustainability continues to be at the heart of everything that we do in Ryanair, and we've launched a new sustainability report this morning. So just a bit more color on the summer itself, operationally we are performing very well. We've got 73 Gamechangers in the fleet. They're delivering enhanced fuel burn and extra passengers, 4% more seats for aircraft. So as a result, we're operating 115% of Summer 2029 at capacity. The decisions that we made at the start of COVID to reduce and more or less eliminate job losses and to keep our people and our crews current and also to get ahead of the recruitment curve, this time last summer means that we are uniquely fully crewed for Summer 2022. We're making good progress in relation to pay restorations and we're committed to restoring pay when the business gets back to pre-COVID levels. So we hope to make further progress on that over the coming weeks. As regards ATC, we are experiencing delays, we've seen an unprecedented level of disruptions down to strikes, down to shortages of staffing in both ATC and airports albeit on the handling side or on the security side. We're happy to say this morning that we're close to finalizing the extension of leases in Lauda, we've got 29 A320s. We hope to extend the vast majority of those for up to four year periods. And that will lock in immediate cost savings but also add to our operational efficiency and resilience over the coming years. And we have garnered strong market share over the past two years. Just moving on, I think this is an important slide from Eurocontrol as it highlights, Ryanair’s strong performance across Europe. As you can see by norm we are operating streets ahead of everybody else. Most competitors are not growing this year, they're canceling flights, whereas we're operating in excess of 3000 flights per day and growing strongly. I think this is a very strong picture of what Europe looks like at this point in time. As regards hedging, we've got a significant competitive advantage over everybody else. 80% of our fuel for the current financial year is hedged. 65% of that is through jet swaps at $63 a barrel and with 15% through caps at $77 a barrel and I'm pleased to say that we have now increased our hedging into FY 2024 to over 30% at just over $90 a barrel. And as you can see, this puts us in a significantly stronger position than everybody else and gives us a massive competitive advantage into this winter and beyond in relation to fuel. Over the past two years, we've seen significant capacity come out of Europe via through bankruptcies or indeed airlines downsizing as you received significant amounts of state aid from their governments across Europe. As a result of that in Italy, for example, we've grown from 30% to 40% as Alitalia has significantly downsized. So by a country mile, the number one carrier there, we now grow to the number one carrier in Hungary this summer, where another low-cost competitor has now fallen into second place. A lot of capacity has come out of Austria, where significant competitor capacity has disappeared or shrunk. Our Polish operator have outstripped LOT and we're operating our single largest schedule ever out of Dublin this summer with just over 30 aircraft. So as you can see, we're very well placed to grow to 225 million customers over the next five years, which will be a 50% increase in traffic from the 149 million that we carried back in FY 2020, pre-COVID. And this is facilitated by our 210 Boeing order book. And as I already said, the environment and ESG are at the center of everything that we do. This morning, we've launched our 2022 aviation with purpose sustainability report and this sets out our ambitious targets not just for the next 10 years, but also our paths to get carbon neutral by 2050. Recently, we've signed a commitment letter with SBTi a science based targets initiative, and we would expect that they will verify our targets over the next two years. And of course, I'm delighted to say that Sustainalytics have ranked Ryanair, the number one airline for ESG in Europe over the course of the past quarter. So in summary, Ryanair will grow to 165 million passengers this year, that's an 11% increase from pre-COVID levels. We'll do this in a load active yield passive strategy. Demand is strong, there's a lot of pent-up demand in the market and Q2 are tracking ahead of the summer of 2019, but low double-digit percentages. We have to caution however, that the recovery remains fragile into the second half of the year where we're typically loss-making. You know, we very well remember the Omicron variant which emerged last November and we were concerned that something may happen into the autumn and winter of this year. Equally, there are risks in relation to what may happen in Ukraine if there's any spillover elsewhere. And indeed, oil remains at very high and volatile levels. So as a result of this uncertainty, we don't think it's appropriate to provide PAT guidance at this time. We do continue to target modest FY 2023 profits, and we hope to be in a position in November to provide more meaningful guidance on PAT. But beyond this year, we are very well placed, there are lots of opportunities in the market, there are lots of growth opportunities at the right cost and we will deliver to 225 million passengers per annum by FY 2026. The balance sheet is rock solid, the opportunities are available, cost base is in good shape. So we believe we're the long-term winner in this market.

Neil, would you like to walk us through the Q&A and the slide presentation?

Yeah, sure Michael. Thanks very much and good morning, everybody.

Michael, Neil, good morning. Let's begin by discussing Ryanair’s ESG strategy. What were the quarter highlights?

We were very pleased to get our 73rd Gamechanger in fleet for peak summer 2022. These aircraft have 4% more seats yet burn 16% less fuel and CO2 and are 40% quieter than the existing aircraft. We're also very pleased that we've partnered with Neste now in Amsterdam to pick up a 40% soft blend sustainable aviation fuel blend on our flights out of Amsterdam. And I think it's important that we've received strong backing for the work that we've been doing in the form of Sustainalytics, who have now ranked us as the #1 airline for ESG in Europe and indeed the #2 globally. And this morning, we're very pleased to launch our aviation of purpose sustainability document, which sets out our ambitious targets for the next decade and also sets out our path to carbon zero by 2050.

What is Ryanair’s job creation plan for the next five years?

We plan to create 6,000 new jobs, well-paid jobs for aviation professionals, our focus being on bringing through cadets and engineering apprentices. We are investing €100 million into new high skills training centers. We've ordered ACA simulators and we're opening three new maintenance bases in Kaunas, Shannon, and in Malta, all of which will help our operational efficiency and effectiveness.

How are your restoration discussions progressing?

Very well. We took the decision, as you know, at the start of COVID to minimize job losses through agreeing pay reductions with our people and their unions. However, when we saw traffic starting to come back in the spring, we moved quickly to enter into pay restoration and acceleration discussions with our unions and our people. We're committed to restoring pay back to pre-COVID levels as soon as the operation gets back to pre-COVID profitability. And I'm pleased to say that over 80% of our pilots and 70% of our cabin crew have now signed up to agreements on accelerated pay, and we would hope to finalize the small balance that remains in the near future.

And what are investors to make of strikes in Belgium, Spain, and Italy?

Yeah, I think these are much more PR noise than any effect they've had. We've had some strikes called by minority unions in Spain and Italy in recent weeks. They've not been supported by our cabin crew or pilots. The Belgian strike, we've had some Belgian cabin crew and pilot strikes, but remember, throughout the summer Ryanair is operating more than 3,000 flights per day. On no days of these small strikes have less than - have more than 1% of our flights been affected. In actual fact, it's ATC strikes and cancellations have caused us far more disruption than these very small and poorly supported strikes in Spain, Belgium or Italy.

Michael, we read a lot about airlines canceling flights these days. Why is Ryanair’s operational performance so much better than its peers?

The decision to minimize job losses and keep crew current through COVID has been vindicated. We're fully crewed for summer 2022 despite operating at 115% of our pre-COVID capacity. We're suffering more disruptions from ATC and airport staff shortages than anything else. And we're confident that we'll complete up to almost 100% of our summer schedules, which will be about 115% during peak summer of our pre-COVID capacity.

And do you expect an increase in disruption costs due to these delays?

The majority of disruptions are outside of our control as the likes of air traffic control disruptions in airport handling and security delays. We are finishing our flights, we are not cancelling flights. And so while we do have some delays that may be subject to EU261, any costs will be immaterial in the grand scale of our numbers.

And you referenced that Ryanair is operating 115% of its pre-COVID capacity this summer, where are you seeing the market share gains?

With very strong market share gains in Italy, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and Ireland, we've opened 50 new bases, we're operating over 770 new routes. And I think the important thing is that Boeing are scheduled to deliver us 50 more Gamechanger aircraft in advance of summer 2023. So we can maintain this capacity growth into our market across Europe where most of our competitors have either gone bust or significantly reduced their capacity. So we're winning, and we expect to continue to gain significant market shares.

Are you moving running capacity around this winter or indeed into summer 2023?

We are in the happy position that we've got more airport offers and we actually have aircraft available to us. We'd be opportunistic on how we allocate to us. And if there are airports increasing fees as we're seeing, as we saw, for example, in Fraport in Germany, and indeed, as we're seeing with Fraport down in Greece and with some of the high-cost Belgian airports, then yes, we may move some capacity this winter. But it's not all about moving capacity. It's about also adding additional growth and we've announced a new base, for example, in Belfast for the summer of next year. We're adding extra aircraft into Venice, and we believe there are significant growth opportunities for us over the next number of years. We already have 50%, for example, of summer of 2023 on sale at this point in time. So we will continue to put the capacity where we see the best opportunities.

And will an economic downturn or recession impact Ryanair this autumn or winter?

We think it would be good for Ryanair’s growth because in a recession, people still fly, they just become more price sensitive. Ryanair has the lowest fares and growing market share. We're very well hedged for fuel and currency. And that gives us a key competitive advantage into this winter. And into summer 2023, we take delivery of 50 new Gamechanger aircraft, which lower our costs because they allow us to carry 4% more passengers but at 16% less fuel.

How will Ryanair achieve its 225 million packs per annum target by FY 2026?

Well, we have a 210 aircraft order book from Boeing, 73 of which have already been delivered. A lot of capacity has come out of the market over the last two years and airports are very keen not only to get restoration, but also try and get some growth deals locked in with Ryanair, who's the only airline that's really growing at any pace over the next few years. So, I think we're in a very strong position. We've already locked in a number of our larger bases like Stansted, like East Midlands, like Bergamot, Charlevoix, et cetera with deals out to the end of this decade. And so we've got lots of opportunities to grow and we will grow to the 225 million passengers by FY 2026.

So just moving on to your fleet, Michael, any further update and discussions with Boeing on a Max 10?

Not much, the negotiation of Boeing ended in 2021, Boeing are nowhere clear close to being competitive on pricing. And that's why other Boeing customers are switching to Airbus, such as Transavia, Qantas, and the recent Chinese order. But we're very pleased that we're in the comfortable position that we have 210 Gamechangers, with deliveries out to 2026. That's sufficient growth to take us to 225 million passengers. We look forward to resuming discussions with Boeing, but only when Boeing gets to a place that’s where they become, where pricing is competitive, and will not lead to an increase in Ryanair costs.

Are you going to take more leased NGs into your fleet?

We looked at this over the past couple of months and have decided not to do so because there's a much better opportunity to extend the majority of the Lauda A320 leases for periods of up to four years.

What's the rationale layout for extending these leases?

Well, first and foremost, we're going to be able to lock in significant cost savings not only for the four-year extensions, but also for the average two years upstart. So six years of savings coming through on these aircraft leases. It also gives us greater operational efficiency and opens up more growth opportunities.

Do you have any concerns about Boeing's ability to deliver aircraft at summer 2023?

Yes, we do. Boeing is already suggesting potential delays on the 21 aircraft we were supposed to receive between September and December this year. This would be surprising, considering Boeing has confirmed they are producing 31 aircraft per month starting in June, which amounts to 200 aircraft by the end of the year. Any delay in delivering 21 of those 200 aircraft would be difficult to understand and unacceptable. However, we will continue to collaborate with Boeing, and we expect them to meet and possibly exceed the delivery dates for the 50 Gamechanger aircraft we anticipate receiving between September this year and April next year. They are producing more than enough aircraft to deliver those 50 to Ryanair.

And Neil looking at your results, you reported a Q1 profit pre-exceptions of €170 million what are the highlights?

Traffic rebounded strongly this quarter, increasing from just over 8 million last year to 45.5 million, with a robust load factor of 92%. However, Easter was significantly affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, impacting close-in bookings and average fares, which decreased by 4% compared to the same quarter before COVID. On a positive note, we achieved strong performance in ancillary services, generating about €22.50 per passenger, and maintained effective cost control amidst a 330% increase in sector costs and a 460% rise in traffic. Additionally, fuel costs surged nearly six-fold to a billion, yet our overall costs only increased by 250% this quarter. This was due to lower variable costs, the introduction of 73 Gamechanger aircraft at favorable prices, and a 16% reduction in fuel burn, which was partly offset by higher fuel prices and increased route charges despite inadequate service quality. Consequently, our unit costs for the quarter decreased to €30, reflecting a strong performance.

Neil referenced strong ancillary rev performance, Michael, what are the key drivers?

As they have been in recent years it's very strong performance on priority boarding, reserve seating, and in-flight sales are going particularly well this summer, especially the commencement or the growth of duty-free sales for our flights to and from the UK, which now accounts for almost 40% of our 3000 daily flights.

Fuel prices obviously spiked recently, what’s your current fuel hedging position?

We are the best hedged airline in Europe at the moment with 80% of our fuel for this year hedged through a combination of jet swaps, about 65% at over $60 a barrel, and another 15% through caps, just over $70 a barrel. And then importantly, we've extended our hedging book out into FY 2024. So we're now over 30% hedged into FY 2024 at just over $90 a barrel. And I think it's important to also highlight that in an environment where the Euro Dollar is almost trading at parity, we've got our OPEX well hedged over 115 this year and indeed our CAPEX on the Boeing Gamechanger order also hedged at about 124.

Let's turn to your balance sheet. Is net debt reducing?

Net debt has decreased significantly by over 1 billion in the quarter, dropping from 1.45 billion at the end of March to 0.40 billion at the end of June. We have experienced very strong cash inflows, which have boosted our cash balances to just over 4.5 billion at quarter-end. Currently, 90% of our 737 fleet is completely unencumbered, and we aim to reduce net debt to zero within the next two years, despite peak capital expenditures and the requirement to repay more than 1.5 billion in bond obligations during that timeframe.

Any update Neil on the CAPEX guidance?

It was unchanged from the previous guidance I gave back in May so we're looking peak CAPEX this year FY 2023 of about 2.3 billion that includes aircraft pre-delivery payments and maintenance and then next year we would see that drop to about 2.1 billion to 2.2 billion before it dropped significantly into FY 2025.

How do you finance the Gamechanger aircraft order?

As always we will continue to be opportunistic. Most of the funding will come from strong cash flows thanks to the post-COVID recovery. We continue to retain a solid BBB investment grade rating and we have 90% of the existing fleet is unencumbered. As always we will select the lowest cost financing option from a suite of measures including unsecured bonds, bank debt, sale leasebacks, stock, and internally generated cash flow.

Any plans to just refund to shareholders in the near term?

As Michael said, our objective over the next two years is to manage our peak CAPEX and indeed to pay down maturing bonds over the next 18 to 24 months as well and that's where we will be focused.

It's still too early to provide accurate guidance due to the significant uncertainty. However, there are evident signs of pent-up demand from summer 2022, and the booking curve is closer to pre-COVID levels. The traffic recovery has been strong, and we are on track for a 95% load factor in July, although we consider this recovery to be fragile. Adverse news about COVID or Ukraine as we head into autumn and winter could negatively affect this recovery, similar to last Christmas and Easter. Currently, we have no visibility into the second half of the year, which generally sees losses. The positive note is that second-quarter average fares are trending upwards in the low double digits, compared to high single digits during the full year results, and they are ahead of the peak summer 2019 fares. We anticipate growing passenger numbers to 165 billion, an 11% increase over pre-COVID levels, provided there are no negative developments leading up to fiscal year-end. However, given the later booking trends, lack of visibility in the second half, fluctuating oil prices—especially for the 20% of our fuel that isn't hedged—and potential adverse news regarding COVID or Ukraine, we recognize that recovery could be fragile this winter. Therefore, we cannot provide any substantial profit guidance for the full year at this time, but we hope to offer clearer guidance during the H1 results in early November. Nonetheless, as emphasized by Neil, the key takeaway is the strong growth potential for Ryanair. We are positioned for growth with low-cost aircraft being delivered, strong hedges on fuel and currency, and we are entering markets like Italy, Ireland, Vienna, and Hungary, gaining considerable market share from competitors. We believe this positions us well for our goal of reaching 225 million passengers by FY 2026 and restoring our profitability and margins to pre-COVID levels, though we are uncertain whether that will occur in FY 2023 or FY 2024. Thank you to everyone for joining this morning's release, and we look forward to speaking with you during the investor call and analyst call later.