Star Bulk Carriers Corp. Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call

Thank you, operator. I'm Simos Spyrou, Co-Chief Financial Officer of Star Bulk Carriers, and I would like to welcome you to our conference call regarding our financial results for the second quarter of 2025. Before we begin, I kindly ask you to take a moment to read the safe harbor statement on Slide #2 of our presentation. In today's presentation, we will go through our Q2 highlights, results, actions taken to create value for our shareholders, cash evolution during the quarter, a short update on the merger synergies, vessel operations, fleet update, the latest on the regulatory front, and our views on the industry fundamentals before opening up for questions. Let us now turn to Slide #3 of the presentation for a summary of our second quarter 2025 highlights. The company reported the following: Net income amounted to $40,000 with adjusted net income of $13.2 million or $0.11 per share adjusted net income. Adjusted EBITDA was $69 million for the quarter. During the second quarter, we repurchased 3.3 million shares for a total of $54 million. Our Board of Directors decided to continue prioritizing returns to shareholders given the company's strong position, declaring a dividend of $0.05 per share for the quarter payable on September 10. Our total cash today stands at $407 million. Meanwhile, our total debt stands at $1.12 billion. Through undrawn revolver facilities, we have additional liquidity of $115 million, resulting in pro forma liquidity of more than $0.5 billion. Finally, we currently have 12 debt-free vessels with an aggregate market value of $246 million. On the top right of the page, you will see our daily figures per vessel for the quarter. Our time charter equivalent rate was $13,624 per vessel per day. Our combined daily operating expenses and net cash G&A expenses per vessel per day amounted to $6,277 per vessel. Therefore, our time charter equivalent less OpEx and less G&A is approximately $7,350 per day per vessel. Slide 4 provides an overview of the company's capital allocation policy over the last three years and the various levels we have used to strengthen the company, increase the intrinsic value of our shares, and return capital to our shareholders. In total, since 2021, we have taken actions totaling $2.75 billion in dividends, share buybacks, and debt repayment to create value for our shareholders. At the same time, Star Bulk has been growing the platform at opportune times through consecutive fleet buyouts by issuing shares at or above NAV. On the bottom of the page, we saw our net debt evolution. Since 2021, our average net debt has been reduced by 46%, reaching a level where it is covered by the fleet scrap value. Given the fleet growth on a per vessel basis, it has decreased from $11.2 million per vessel to $5.3 million per vessel, a reduction of more than 53%. Slide 5 graphically illustrates the changes in the company's cash balance during the second quarter. We started the quarter with $437 million in cash. We generated positive cash flow from operating activities of $55 million. After including debt proceeds and repayments, CapEx payments for energy-saving devices and ballast water treatment systems installations, vessel sale proceeds, share buybacks, and the first quarter dividend payment, we arrived at a cash balance of $431 million at the end of the quarter. I will now pass the floor to our Chief Operating Officer, Nicos Rescos, for an update on synergies and our operational performance.

Thank you, Simo. Slide 6 provides an update on the Eagle integration and synergies. We're now closing the first-year mark since the Eagle acquisition, near completion of our strategy and realizing significant cost savings in the operating and general and administrative expenses. Over $53 million of cumulative cost synergies have been achieved since April 2024. Cost synergies achieved during Q2 2025 stands at approximately $13 million with operating expense and G&A savings for the Eagle fleet of approximately $1,990 per vessel per day. We expect to complete the phase-out of third-party crew managers by Q3 2025 and replace them with our crew platform, hence meeting our targeted cost optimization. Please turn to Slide 7, where we provide an operational update. Operating expenses for Q2 2025 stand at $4,928. Net cash G&A expenses were $1,349 per vessel per day for the same period. In addition, we continue to rate at the top among our listed peers in terms of rideship safety score. Slide 8 provides a fleet update and some guidance around our future dry dock and the relevant total off-hire days. On the bottom of the page, we provide our expected dry dock expense schedule, which for the remainder of the year is estimated at $33 million for the dry docking of 30 vessels. In total, we expect to have approximately 1,000 off-hire days for the same period. On the top right of the page, we have our CapEx schedule, illustrating our newbuilding CapEx and vessel energy efficiency upgrade expenses. Based on our latest construction schedule, our 5 Kamsarmax newbuilding vessels constructed at Qingdao Shipyard are expected to be delivered during 2026. For these vessels, we have secured $130 million of debt financing against the newbuilding installments. In line with IMO carbon reduction regulations, we will continue investing and upgrading our fleet with the latest operational technologies available, aimed at improving our fuel consumption, reducing our environmental footprint, and enhancing the commercial attractiveness of the Star Bulk fleet. Regarding our energy-saving technologies retrofit program, we have so far completed 47 installations with another 13 planned for 2025. Please turn to Slide 9 for an update on our fleet. On the vessel sales front, we continue disposing of non-Eco vessels opportunistically, reducing our average age and improving overall fleet efficiency. During the second quarter, we agreed to sell and deliver to the new owners some of our less efficient Supramax and Kamsarmax vessels, including Tufin Bulker, Star Canari, Star Petrel, Oriol, and Star Georgia. Furthermore, during the second quarter, we further agreed to sell Star Nighthawk, Star Runner, Fani, Star Gold, Star Piper, and Star O, which are expected to be delivered to the new owners by the end of the year. We expect to receive aggregate net sales proceeds of $104 million during Q3 and Q4 2025. Following the rollover of existing chartering contracts, we now have a total of 8 chartering vessels. Considering the aforementioned changes in our fleet mix, we operate one of the largest dry bulk fleets among U.S. and European listed peers with 142 vessels on a fully delivered basis and an average age of 11.9 years. I will now pass the floor to our Chief Strategy Officer, Charis Plakantonaki, for an update on recent global environmental regulation developments.

Thank you, Nico. Please turn to Slide 10, where we highlight progress on our ESG priorities. October 2025, we continue to assess the impact of the net zero framework approved by the IMO last April and future strategies to ensure timely and efficient compliance with the forthcoming global regulations expected to take effect in January 2028. On the fueling maritime front, we have reviewed compliance options and a strategy for 2025-2026 and an agreement with an external party to cover 100% of tonnage given the cost effect of certain. Star Bulk remains committed to supporting the professional development of the next generation in various departments of our company. During Q2 2025, the company renewed its social responsibility commitment, including the sponsorship of athletes and our continued support of the scholarship program. In preparation for the company's annual report to be published in the third quarter of 2025, we are conducting a new impact analysis of our ESG material topics engaging our internal stakeholders in accordance with the global reporting initiative standards. We continue to invest in digital and various projects, including the rollout and while actively exploring applications of AI technology in our operations. I will now pass the floor to our Head of Market Analysis, Constantinos Simantiras for a market update and closing remarks.

Thank you, Charis. Please refer to Slide 11 for a brief update on supply. In the first half of 2025, we delivered a total of 18.1 million deadweight and sent 2.2 million deadweight for demolition, resulting in a net fleet growth of 15.9 million deadweight, which is 1.5% year-to-date and 2.9% over the last 12 months. The newbuilding order book is modest at 10.8% of the existing fleet. Contracting activity has been weak in the first half, dropping to a 9-year low of only 9.7 million deadweight. Factors such as limited shipyard capacity until the second half of 2027, high building costs, and uncertainty over future green propulsion have kept new orders limited. Additionally, the fleet is aging, with approximately 50% expected to be over 15 years old by the end of 2027. Moreover, the increasing number of vessels undergoing their third special survey is anticipated to reduce effective capacity by roughly 0.5% per year between 2025 and 2027. The average steaming speed of the fleet has slightly rebounded from record lows in Q1, aided by stronger freight rates and a stable bunker environment, but speeds remain below last year’s levels, stabilizing around NOK 11. New IMO carbon regulations are expected to encourage slow steaming further and moderate effective supply in the medium term. Lastly, global port congestion, which briefly improved in Q1, has now returned to long-term averages. For the rest of 2025 and 2026, we expect congestion to follow seasonal patterns and to have a neutral or slightly positive impact on the supply and demand balance. Now, let’s move to Slide 12 for a brief demand update. According to Clarksons, total dry bulk trade in 2025 is expected to contract by 0.9%, while ton miles are anticipated to increase by 0.2%. For 2026, trade growth is estimated at 0.3% in tons and 0.6% in ton miles. Recent tariff negotiations and policy shifts have added uncertainty to traditional forecasting models, but the global economy showed notable resilience in the first half of the year. The IMF has recently raised its global GDP forecast following eased trade tensions and new deals between the U.S., the EU, Japan, and other countries, with world growth revised up by 0.2 percentage points to 3% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. GDP forecasts for the U.S. and China have also been upgraded for 2025 by 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively, with similar upward revisions for trade forecasts expected if the U.S.-China trade route remains stable in the coming quarter. In the first half of 2025, total dry bulk volumes lagged due to significant declines in coal and grain shipments. Iron ore trade held steady, while bauxite and minor bulk flows increased significantly. In the second quarter, ton-miles received support from stronger Atlantic exports, longer trade distances in the Pacific, and continued rerouting in the Red Sea. Chinese dry bulk imports fell by 4.2% year-over-year in the first half, following two years of robust domestic output, imports, and rising stockpiles. However, China's GDP growth has surpassed expectations due to aggressive stimulus measures initiated in September aimed at boosting domestic consumption, stabilizing the housing market, and counteracting tariff impacts. Dry bulk demand in other regions has shown strong recovery over the past seven quarters, a trend expected to continue thanks to lower commodity prices and a weaker U.S. dollar. In the first half of 2025, imports grew by 2.8% year-over-year, primarily driven by demand from Southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East. Iron ore trade is projected to decline by 1.2% in tons and by 0.7% in ton miles during 2025. Chinese steel production dropped by 2.2% year-over-year in the first half, due to output reductions in Q2 aimed at managing overcapacity. However, iron ore imports are predicted to increase as port stockpiles have decreased recently and domestic iron ore production has shrunk by 8.4% year-to-date. Additionally, record high steel exports have helped offset weaker domestic demand, while steel production in other parts of the world remained stable year-over-year. By late 2025, iron ore ton miles will receive a boost from new high-grade iron ore mines in the Atlantic that are set to gradually replace lower-quality imports and domestic production in China. Coal trade is forecasted to decline by 5.8% in tons and by 7.6% in ton miles in 2025, with export volumes pulling back in the first half after achieving record highs in late 2024. Chinese and Indian thermal electricity production has decreased, domestic coal production has risen, and stockpiles have reached record levels. With weak coal fundamentals and increased renewable energy production in China are creating downside risks, yet global energy security concerns, robust demand from Southeast Asian economies, and the recovery of Australian coal ton miles should gradually support coal trade. Grain trade is expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% in tons but expand by 1.9% in ton miles in 2025. In the first half, total grain volumes fell by 3.7% year-over-year, primarily due to significant declines in Black Sea and European exports and weaker demand from China. Exports from Latin America have remained relatively stable at higher levels after a strong Brazilian soybean season and increased volumes from Argentina. Additionally, falling commodity prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, and pent-up demand are likely to enhance grain trade activity during the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. Minor bulk trade is projected to grow by 2.1% in tons and by 3.6% in ton miles in 2025, closely tied to global GDP growth and benefiting from an improved outlook across major economies. The favorable price arbitrage continues to stimulate Chinese steel exports and backhaul trades, with bauxite exports from West Africa jumping by 31% in the first half, generating strong ton miles for the Capesize fleet. In closing, despite ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties, we are optimistic about the medium- to long-term outlook for the dry bulk market, supported by a favorable supply outlook, stricter IMO environmental regulations, and China's robust stimulus measures. We remain committed to actively managing our diverse scrubber-fitted fleet to take advantage of market opportunities and deliver value to our shareholders. Now, I will turn it over to the operator for any questions you may have.

Just given the recent strengthening in the midsized segment in terms of the rates, do you have any expectations around further divestment of older tonnage in kind of the smaller segments? Or do you expect to target maybe one particular segment or another or just particular age profiles going forward?

Disposals of smaller ships. Chris, the intention is to continue disposing of smaller vessels, smaller, older, and inefficient vessels going forward. And that is also a kind of hedge in case the market does not go the way we think it will.

Got you. I guess as a follow-up to that, when you think about investing in the fleet on the vessels that you do decide to keep, there's obviously the current technologies out there like different paints and hull treatments and things like that. But what other technology options are you guys looking into or you expect to maybe come on to the scene over the next few years that will help continue to improve the efficiency of the current fleet without having to invest in alternative fuel technology as another more expensive option?

Chris, this is Nicos. We're looking at various technologies and testing all sorts of options, from cleaning robots to testing carbon capture technology. We think this is going to be a long journey until we are able to replace engines with new fuels. So we are looking at various options on how to optimize performance. We're lately changing propellers on the bigger ships. By employing efficiency devices, we can reduce consumption by about 10%. So there are measures. There are investments to be made with a short return on investment horizon. And we see this as being the trend for the next, let's say, 5 to 7 years.

Just wanted to ask about the market, and you touched on it a little bit. But we have seen a bit of a resurgence here, perhaps not perhaps not substantially, but definitely an improvement from the first half, which maybe seems a bit unexpected, I would say, for this time of year. Can you give me just a sense of what's behind this move from your angle? And especially given that we're seeing it across all segments, what's it telling us about seasonality and perhaps maybe your outlook as a result of what we're seeing today?

Omar, yes, seasonality is a factor. But also keep in mind that June exports actually reached an all-time high. So that actually was the beginning of the better market that we saw. We think that part of it is expediting imports and exports prior to potential effects of the tariffs. We also have another theory in this office, which we call ocean imbalance. We realized at some point a couple of months ago that there were many vessels in the Pacific, many more than usual, and fewer vessels in the Atlantic. That actually started an upturn in the Atlantic. Physically, when there are fewer vessels than what's required, they need to ballast. That adds to the inefficiencies. We also saw some extra grain exports from Brazil that helped as well. As far as the future is concerned, we're pretty positive about Q4. As we've said in the past, the second half of the year has more trade than the first half of the year with the well-known 54%, 46% ratio between the two halves; 54% for the second half. That, of course, changes over time. Then we see a number of iron ore shipments coming from Brazil and Australia in the second half; the weather is better as well. The U.S. soybean season is starting, and coal seems to be doing a bit better than previously. Of course, the ocean imbalance is going to remain. This is not something that is mended immediately. One question we have about Q4 is what effect the tariffs will have, but that's something nobody can tell. Regarding 2026, we're generally looking forward to a relatively good year.

That's helpful. I appreciate the detail there. Just to clarify, when you mentioned that June exports reached a high, were you referring to a specific commodity or to seaborne trade in general?

I'm referring to tons traded.

Okay. Okay. And then maybe just a bit more of like a financial question. Given, obviously, the stock has done well this year and recently, you've been very active buying back the stock. You just recharged with the $100 million buyback. How do you view the use of the buyback here in the second half? You obviously, again, have been quite active in the past few months. The stock has reacted favorably. Do you continue this path? Or do you kind of maybe go back to the idea of the dividend taking up a bigger percentage of the free cash flow?

Well, so Omar, it's Hamish Norton. We are basically going to try to do what's right for the shareholders. That's basically how we think. If our stock gets cheaper, we'll probably use cash flow or at least cash from ship sales to buy back stock and maybe some cash flow as well. If our stock does well, we'll probably use cash to build up a reserve on our balance sheet for opportunities that we think may get quite good later on. At this point, we're probably not going to buy ships because we think that the pricing is a little high for building up the fleet, but we do think there will be some opportunities in the foreseeable future. Probably, we will not increase our dividend above roughly 60% of cash flow, and it may not be that much. But we will pay a dividend.

Thank you, operator. No further comments. Have a great summer, everybody, and thank you for following our call.

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending, and we do ask that you please disconnect your lines.