Star Bulk Carriers Corp. Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Thank you, operator. I'm Christos Begleris, Co-Chief Financial Officer of Star Bulk Carriers, and I would like to welcome you to our conference call regarding our financial results for the third quarter of 2025. Before we begin, I kindly ask you to take a moment to read the safe harbor statement on Slide #2 of our presentation. In today's presentation, we will go through our third quarter company highlights, financial results, actions taken to create value for our shareholders, cash evolution during the quarter, vessel operations, our investments in our fleet, the latest on the regulatory front and our views on industry fundamentals before opening up for questions. Let us now turn to Slide #3 of the presentation for a summary of our third quarter 2025 highlights. The company reported the following: Net income amounted to $18.5 million with adjusted net income of $32.4 million or $0.16 adjusted income per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $87 million for the quarter. During the third quarter, we repurchased 250,000 shares for a total of $4.4 million, while from the beginning of the fourth quarter until today, we have bought back 360,000 shares for $6.7 million. Our Board of Directors decided to continue prioritizing returns to shareholders given the company's strong position, declaring a dividend per share of $0.11 for the quarter payable on or December 18, 2025. Our total cash today stands at $454 million. Meanwhile, our total debt stands at $1.028 billion. Through undrawn revolver facilities, we have additional liquidity of $115 million, resulting in pro forma liquidity of more than $570 million. We have approximately $91 million remaining from our recently renewed share repurchase program. Finally, we currently have 15 debt-free vessels with an aggregate market value of $336 million. On the top right of the page, you will see our daily figures per vessel for the quarter. Our time charter equivalent rate was $16,634 per vessel per day. Our combined daily OpEx and net cash general and administrative expenses per vessel per day amounted to $6,421. Therefore, our TCE less OpEx and cash G&A is approximately $10,213 per vessel per day. Slide 4 provides an overview of the company's capital allocation policy over the last 3 years and the various levers we have used to strengthen the company, increase the value of our shares and return capital to our shareholders. In total, since 2021, we have taken actions totaling $2.8 billion in dividends, share buybacks and debt repayment to create value for our shareholders. At the same time, Star Bulk has been growing the platform at opportune times through consecutive fleet buyouts by issuing shares at or above net asset value. On the top right-hand corner, we illustrate how the company has used both dividends and buybacks over time to return capital. We have returned in total $13.2 per share in dividends since 2021. This corresponds to approximately 70% of our current share price. On the bottom of the page, we saw our net debt evolution. Since 2021, our average net debt has reduced by 50%, reaching a level where it is covered by the fleet scrap value at a comfortable level. Slide 5 graphically illustrates the changes in the company's cash balance during the third quarter. We started the quarter with $431 million in cash. We generated positive cash flow from operating activities of $92 million after including vessel sale proceeds, debt proceeds and repayments, CapEx payments for energy-saving devices and ballast water treatment systems, share buybacks and the dividend payment for the second quarter, we arrived at a cash balance of $457 million at the end of the quarter. I will now pass the floor to our COO, Nicos Rescos, for an update on our operational performance and the investment we continue to make on our fleet.

Thank you, Christos. Please turn to Slide 6, where we provide an operational update. Operating expenses for Q3 2025 stand at $5,096 per vessel per day. Net cash G&A expenses were $1,325 per vessel per day for the same period. In addition, we continue to rate at the top amongst our listed peers in terms of RightShip Safety Score. Slide 7 provides a fleet update and some guidance around our future dry dock and the relevant total off-hire days. During October, we entered into three prompt recent renovation agreements with Hengli Shipbuilding for three 82,000 deadweight scrubber-fitted Kamsarmax newbuildings scheduled for delivery in Q3 2026. Our five Kamsarmax newbuildings under construction at Qingdao Shipyard are expected to be delivered during Q3 and Q4 2026. We have secured $130 million in debt on the five Qingdao newbuilding Kamsarmax vessels, plus another $74 million expected against the three Hengli Kamsarmax vessels. As of Q3, we have completed 51 EST installations with four vessels completed during the quarter and with nine remaining and planned for 2025. On the top right of the page, we have our CapEx schedule, illustrating our newbuilding CapEx and vessel energy efficiency upgrade expenses. On the bottom of the page, we provide our expected dry dock expense schedule, which for the remainder of 2025 and '26 is estimated at $20 million and $47 million, respectively. In total, we expect to have approximately 580 and 1,140 off-hire days for the same period. Please turn to Slide 8 for an update on our fleet. On the vessel sales front, we continue disposing non-Eco vessels opportunistically, reducing our average fleet age and improving our overall fleet efficiency. We'll continue to optimize our fleet through selected disposals and acquisitions. During Q3, we sold and delivered six Kamsarmax and Supramax vessels, collecting total proceeds of $75.5 million with another two Supramaxes, Star Runner and Star Sandpiper delivered in October, generating around $25 million in proceeds. We maintain 8 long-term chartering contracts, which provide flexibility and leverage across market cycles. Considering the aforementioned changes in our fleet mix, we operate one of the largest dry bulk fleets amongst U.S. and European listed peers with 145 vessels on a fully delivered basis and an average age of 11.9 years. I will now pass the floor to our CSO, Charis Plakantonaki, for an update on recent global environmental regulation developments.

Thank you, Nicos. Please turn to Slide 9, where we highlight the key milestones on the ESG front. For the seventh consecutive year, Star Bulk has published its annual environmental, social and governance report, which provides a comprehensive overview of the company's sustainability strategy, performance and future goals. Through transparent and data-driven reporting, the publication highlights measurable progress towards long-term ESG objectives, supported by detailed action plans and sustainability-focused key performance indicators. The report has been developed in accordance with the global reporting initiative standards, the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board for Marine Transportation and aligns with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. In October 2025, during the latest IMO by the Environment Protection Committee, the IMO member states decided to postpone the adoption of the Net-Zero Framework for one year. The framework had been previously approved during the April MEPC. Despite the developments around global regulations, the company's decarbonization strategy remains focused on fleet renewal, energy efficiency and research and development on green technologies. We also continue to contribute to the work of the Maritime emissions reduction center together with our partners and have participated for one more year in the carbon disclosure project on climate change and water security. On the technology front, we have commenced assessing the application of artificial intelligence across the company, having completed the diagnostic, identified and prioritized use cases and selected the first ones to be developed. We also continue our technology upgrades on board our vessels, including fiber installations and Starlink deployment. As part of our enhanced corporate responsibility program, during Q3 2025, we delivered anti-harassment training to all employees across company offices in line with regulatory requirements. I will now pass the floor to our Head of Market Analysis, Constantinos Simantiras, for a market update and closing remarks.

Thank you, Charis. Please turn to Slide 10 for a brief update of supply. During the first 10 months of 2025, a total of 31.2 million deadweight was delivered and 3.9 million deadweight was sent for demolition for a net fleet growth of 2.6% year-to-date and 2.9% year-over-year. The newbuilding order book remains modest at 10.9% of the existing fleet as contracting activity has been soft during 2025, falling to a 5-year low of 22.1 million deadweight year-to-date. Limited shipyard capacity availability up to late 2027, high shipbuilding costs and uncertainty over future green production have kept new orders under control. Furthermore, the IMO's decision to postpone the adoption of the Net-Zero framework for one year is likely to extend this ordering caution well into 2026. At the same time, the fleet is aging. And by the end of 2027, roughly 50% of the existing fleet will be over 15 years old. Moreover, the increasing number of vessels undergoing their third special survey is estimated to reduce effective capacity by approximately 0.5% per annum during 2026 and 2027. Average steaming speeds have picked up slightly in recent months, supported by firmer freight rates and lower bunker prices, but remain close to historical lows. Furthermore, environmental regulations become stricter every year and are expected to continue to incentivize slow steaming and moderate effective supply. Finally, global port congestion eased during Q3 and has returned to long-term averages. For the remainder of 2025 and 2026, congestion is expected to follow seasonal trends and to have a relatively neutral impact on effective supply growth. Let us now turn to Slide 11 for a brief update of demand. According to Clarksons, total dry bulk trade during 2025 is projected to expand by 1.4% in ton miles. Total dry bulk trade volumes underperformed during the first half, but experienced a strong recovery during the third quarter. Trade volumes increased by 5.1% year-over-year during Q3, supported by strong iron ore, grain and minor bulk exports and a recovery of coal volumes. Ton-miles have received extra support from stronger Atlantic exports, longer Pacific trade distances and war-related inefficiencies. The recent ceasefire agreement in the Middle East has intensified the discussion for the return of Red Sea crossings, and we should expect a gradual normalization during 2026. Chinese dry bulk imports recovered and increased 4.4% year-over-year during the third quarter after having contracted by 4.2% during the first half. Imports to the rest of the world increased 4.6% year-over-year to a new record high and remain on a strong upward trend over the past 2 years as lower commodity prices and a weaker U.S. dollar helped stimulate demand for raw materials. During 2026, dry bulk demand is projected to increase by 2.1% in ton miles. The IMF forecast for global GDP growth stands at 3.1%, slightly below 2025 levels, while Chinese GDP is projected to slow down to 4.2% from 4.8% this year. U.S. agreements with trade partners and the one-year truce with China should help reduce uncertainty and support trade activity over the next year. Iron ore trade is expected to expand by 0.8% in 2025 and by 2.8% in 2026. During the first three quarters, Chinese steel production declined by 2.5% year-over-year, driven by output cuts that began in May with a target to reduce overcapacity, while output in the rest of the world increased by 0.5% year-over-year. China's property sector remains under pressure, but record high steel exports have helped mitigate the weakness in domestic consumption. Iron ore imports increased to all-time highs during Q3, assisted by lower domestic production in the first half and seasonal restocking. As of 2026, ton miles are expected to benefit from new high-quality iron ore mines in Guinea that should gradually replace lower quality Chinese production and imports from shorter distances. Coal trade is expected to contract by 6.2% in 2025 and by 1.1% in 2026. Volumes experienced a strong recovery during Q3 after a strong pullback during the first half of 2025 due to weaker demand in China and India. Chinese coal fundamentals have recently improved as domestic output is contracting, thermal electricity generation has recovered and domestic coal prices are moving higher due to the expectations of a colder winter. India’s new thermal energy capacity, strong demand from Southeast Asian economies and global focus on energy security are expected to support coal trade over the coming years. Grain trade is expected to expand by 2% during 2025 and by 5.3% in 2026. During the third quarter, total grain volumes surged by 11% year-over-year, driven by record harvests in Brazil and the U.S. and strong exports from Argentina following the temporary export tax suspension. Grain exports from other sources have recently increased, but Black Sea volumes remain weak due to war-related disruptions. It is worth highlighting that China had not purchased any soybean cargoes before the October trade through. Since then, buying activity has resumed and is expected to intensify over the coming months as China agreed to buy 12 million tons in 2025 and 25 million tons per annum through 2028. Minor bulk trade is expected to expand by 5% during 2025 and by 2.1% in 2026. Minor bulk trade has the highest correlation with global GDP growth and continues to benefit from healthy outlooks across major economies. Wide price differentials continue to fuel Chinese steel exports and backhaul trades despite rising protectionist measures. Furthermore, bauxite exports from West Africa continued their strong performance and helped inflate ton miles for the Capesize fleet. As a final comment, despite geopolitical uncertainties, we remain optimistic about the medium- to long-term outlook for the dry bulk market, supported by a favorable supply outlook, stricter environmental regulations, and easing trade sanctions. We remain focused on actively managing our diverse scrubber-fitted fleet to capitalize on market opportunities and deliver value to our shareholders. Without taking any more of your time, I will now pass the floor over to the operator to answer any questions we may have.

Assuming you guys can hear me. So my first question is looking at the new financings, you secured up to $204 million on the 8 newbuilding assets being delivered in 2026. So taking these financings into account and then the regularly scheduled amortization or planned repayments during the year, what is your expectation around the total net change in debt in 2026 as a whole?

Just a clarification, please. We have secured financing for the first five, that's $130 million. And we are in discussions about the financing of the last three that we have confirmed this month. So the final numbers and figures for those vessels will be actually disclosed during the next disclosure of March.

Okay. Got it. I guess just related then to planned amortization during 2026. Could you comment around that?

Our amortization will remain around the $50 million mark per quarter. What is happening is that some older facilities are getting refinanced. And then the new facilities for the new buildings have an amortization profile of 17 years, thus not impacting in any major way the amortization profile of Star Bulk. So our amortization profile will remain around $50 million to $52 million per quarter for 2026.

That's helpful. As a follow-up to that, just as it relates to the dividend policy on the minimum cash balance per owned vessel, is that being calculated based on the pro forma size of the fleet after the newbuild deliveries? Or should we think about that as an average number per quarter as the deliveries are taking? Or is it being calculated right now at pro forma?

Okay. So our dividend policy may be a bit unclear. Were you asking about the $2.1 million per ship that we need to maintain on our balance sheet before we decide to pay a dividend?

Yes, Hamish.

Okay. Well, so basically, there has been no change to that. And we're so far above that level in terms of our cash balance that it's not been an obstacle to any dividend payments in the last two years. I mean we have something on the order of $450 million of cash. And we have 142 vessels growing by the number of newbuildings.

In response to Chris' question, the equity capital expenditures required for the new buildings have already been covered by proceeds from previous vessel sales. Therefore, the funds we are using from operations to pay dividends remain unaffected, as they have already generated proceeds.

I think I understand the question. I think I was misunderstanding the question. We don't have to allocate cash to specific accounts. We just take the number of vessels and multiply by $2.1. And that our aggregate cash has to be greater than that.

My question was about the number of vessels, specifically the $2.1 figure. Is that figure based on the newbuild deliveries, or does it reflect the current fleet as it stands today, or are you already factoring in the number of newbuilds?

I mean it's as the fleet stands today, but we're so far above that level that it's not impacting our ability to pay dividends. It's not even close.

Right, right. Okay. All right. Last question for me, just turning to rates. Looking at the strong rate performance right now in the sub-cape segment, do you attribute that to a waterfall impact from the stronger Capesize rates? Or is that a function of just stronger demand fundamentals in the sub-cape segment?

Well, first of all, I think there is a spillover effect from the bigger vessels. But let's not forget that grain trade improved by 11% during Q3, and that coal did very well as well during the third quarter. So that helped a lot the Kamsarmax vessels. And on the Supramax vessels, minor trade was doing well as well. And I think also perhaps there was an urgency in ordering more cargoes whilst we didn't know whether there were going to be major tariffs, and that also helped out.

Just wanted to ask maybe just a follow-up to the new buildings. And I guess maybe in general about fleet composition. You've acquired these three Kamsarmaxes that will deliver next year. You've got the other five Kamsarmax newbuildings. And if I recall, you got chartered in maybe long term last year, was it five other Kamsarmaxes. So you've been very active on the Kamsarmax front, at least with respect to bringing in new buildings there. And just wanted maybe to kind of get a refresh as to what's behind that? What is it maybe specifically about that class that keeps you coming back to it, say, versus the Ultras/capes?

We ordered Kamsarmax vessels because our current fleet is aging and requires renewal. Additionally, our S&P department secured early deliveries in 2026, which we anticipate will be a strong year. The prices were favorable, and the vessels are environmentally friendly with scrubbers, so we're pleased with their performance and future potential. To illustrate, ordering Kamsarmaxes for $35 million each totals $70 million, comparable to the cost of a Capesize. It's challenging to find Capesize vessels for delivery before 2025, and any orders might not occur until late 2027 or 2028. In three years, market conditions could change significantly. If we consider two Kamsarmaxes generating $16,500 per day each, that sums to $33,000 daily for both, minus $10,000 in operating expenses, leaving us with $23,000. This means the EBITDA from these two vessels equates to a charter rate of $29,000 for a Capesize. Thus, since we can't order Capes at the moment and found the opportunity to obtain Kamsarmaxes with early delivery schedules, we decided to proceed with Kamsarmax acquisitions expecting similar returns to those of Capesize vessels.

That’s quite interesting and clearly outlines the approach. Considering your past discussions, particularly after the Eagle transaction, it seems you’ve been somewhat focused on Ultra Supras while looking to gradually balance that with Capes. What actions do you think can be taken to enhance your Cape presence? As you mentioned, new builds are still a ways off. What’s your take on the sale and purchase market?

There is a similar calculation for the Supras as well. Additionally, we have been involved in a trade known as the pendulum trade. With the Supras, it's possible to return to the Atlantic with steel and other cargoes, which is not as straightforward with the Kamsarmaxes. Currently, you can achieve low teens rates for that. However, for the front haul, the rates range between $23,000 and $25,000. If you average these amounts, you arrive at approximately $17,000, making the Supras equivalent to Kamsarmaxes and, according to the previous calculation, equivalent to Capes as well. Moreover, Supras are actually more affordable, with newbuildings being cheaper than Kamsarmaxes.

And I think he also wanted to know what we could do around Capes.

Currently, there is a tight market for Capesize vessels, and they are quite costly. Sellers tend to offer their underperforming vessels, making it challenging to find good opportunities without paying a premium, especially for secondhand vessels which can sometimes be as expensive as new ones. After acquiring Eagle Bulk, we had a significant number of Supramax vessels. Over the past one and a half to two years, we have sold about 28 Supramaxes, which has helped us balance our fleet of Capes, Kamsars, and Supras. We are retaining our Ultramax vessels while selling off the older, non-eco Supramaxes in favor of the better quality ones.

Yes. No, certainly. Well, very detailed response as usual, Petros, but obviously very logical. So very helpful to understand that. And it looks like the value really is perhaps now even though the outlook may be more exciting as we think about it just sort of conceptually, the outlook may be more exciting for Capes. If you have them great, but if you want to deploy capital, it sounds like the sub-capes where it's at.

No further comments, operator. Thank you very much for listening in, and good night.

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.