TEGNA INC Q4 FY2023 Earnings Call
TEGNA INC (TGNA)
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Auto-generated speakersThank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 conference call and webcast. My name is Kirk von Seelen, and I am TEGNA's Treasurer. Today, our President and CEO, Dave Lougee; and our new CFO, Julie Heskett, will review TEGNA's financial performance and results and provide TEGNA's full year and quarter ahead outlook. After that, we'll open the call for questions. Hopefully, you've had the opportunity to review this morning's press release. If you've not yet seen a copy of the release, it's available at tegna.com. Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that this conference call and webcast includes forward-looking statements, and our actual results may differ. Factors that may cause them to differ are outlined in our SEC filings. This presentation also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures. We have provided reconciliations of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the press release. With that, let me turn the call over to Dave.
Thank you, Kirk, and good morning, everyone. Following the merger termination last May, we've concentrated on returning capital to shareholders, enhancing efficiencies, and exploring future growth opportunities. As our announcements today demonstrate, we possess the right assets, team, and strong balance sheet. By utilizing our assets and culture, we've consistently shown our ability to navigate challenging market dynamics. We anticipated the current industry trends and adjusted the company accordingly. Our portfolio of leading local station brands is predominantly located in economically thriving metropolitan areas, generating high-margin revenues and reliable cash flows. Local broadcasting remains a vital distribution channel for essential local and national content. The extensive reach of our broadcast distribution gives us a competitive edge against fragmented competitors, particularly cable channels and programmers. A notable example is that the most recent Super Bowl aired on our CBS stations became the most-watched live event since the moon landing. We now have affiliate agreements with almost all of our Big 4 subscribers extending through late 2026 or beyond. Most of these subscribers are now linked to a variable payment model that ties compensation to subscriber counts. This, along with the completed renegotiation of retransmission agreements for about 30% of our traditional subscribers, enhances our revenue and future cash flow visibility, which Julie will elaborate on later. Regarding capital allocation, a fundamental element of our strategy, following the merger termination last May, our Board and management team committed to nearly $800 million in share repurchases and increased our dividend by 20%. Today, we're unveiling a comprehensive capital allocation framework that outlines our commitments to returning capital with sustainable shareholder value creation moving forward. Under this framework, we plan to return 40% to 60% of free cash flow over the next two years in the form of buybacks and dividends, with the remaining free cash flow allocated to organic investments, bolt-on M&A, and preparing for long-term debt maturities. We anticipate maintaining our industry-leading balance sheet with no near-term maturities and attractively priced fixed-rate debt while returning significant capital to shareholders. Based on current projections, we expect to generate free cash flow between $900 million and $1.1 billion during 2024 and 2025. Applying our new capital allocation framework, we expect to return $1.3 billion to shareholders since the merger termination through 2025. Additionally, TEGNA has received approximately $153 million in pretax cash proceeds from our interest in the sale of BMI. While these proceeds are not part of our free cash flow guidance, they will fall under the newly announced capital allocation framework. On the cost side, we have a proven track record of operational excellence and innovation, which is vital for our future cash flows. We are utilizing our scale and adopting new technologies such as AI to enhance efficiencies across the company, offering greater financial flexibility. Initial benefits from these initiatives are expected in the latter half of this year, with full implementation by 2026. In terms of financial performance, Julie will provide detailed insights into our fourth quarter and full year 2023 performance, but I want to highlight a few key points. We met or exceeded all our full year 2023 guidance metrics. The fourth quarter saw improvements in advertising and marketing services revenue, primarily driven by trends in automotive and services, our two largest ad categories. Automotive has steadily recovered and experienced strong year-over-year growth for the sixth consecutive quarter. We have significant events planned for 2024 that capitalize on our portfolio of major market Big 4 stations in the right geographic regions. This includes our CBS stations, which recently showcased the Super Bowl I mentioned earlier, and this summer, we will have the NBC Olympic Games across our NBC stations, benefiting from a prime timezone for live coverage. Regarding political advertising in 2024, our stations will play a crucial role in political marketing strategies for major races at both the national and state levels. Our stations are located in nearly three-quarters of the battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. For Congress, we will have elections for every house race across our markets, including highly competitive seats in Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Washington State. In terms of competitive U.S. Senate seats, our footprint has fewer races than in 2020 or 2022, with four of the 17 races currently considered competitive; however, this number may increase if the Texas race remains close, benefiting all 11 of our Texas stations. Additionally, Maryland is generating interest with Republican Governor Larry Hogan recently entering the race, which could result in increased spending for our CBS affiliate WSA in D.C. In governor races, five out of 11 total races are within our footprint, including highly competitive contests in North Carolina and New Hampshire, where we also have a strong station presence in Southwestern Maine and Portland. In summary, we expect political spending to be robust, and I look forward to answering any questions on that shortly. Recently, we made strategic actions at TEGNA to align with consumer and advertising trends. In February, we announced the acquisition of Octillion Media, a connected TV platform that enhances Premion's capabilities for local and regional advertisers. Both Premion and Octillion will benefit from each other's strengths, with Octillion’s technology boosting Premion’s product innovation. Octillion is already assisting brands in key categories like home goods, automotive, and quick-service restaurants in reaching the right customers through targeted marketing. We welcome them to the Premion and TEGNA team. Premion now reports to Tom Cox, our new Senior Vice President of Digital and Chief Growth Officer, who is here this morning to address any questions about Premion's future. In sports, with our strong station portfolio in major pro sports markets, we are well-positioned for the current shifts in local sports distribution. Last October, we reached an agreement with the San Antonio Spurs and recently completed agreements with the Dallas Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks to broadcast more games on our stations. Expect additional announcements related to the Diamond Sports situation. We also made a strategic investment in 6AM City, a digital local media brand delivering daily newsletters to subscribers in 26 markets. As part of this agreement, 6AM City will incorporate news and weather from our stations, promote our newscasts, and feature headlines from our locked-on local podcast and video sports business. Finally, as I conclude, I want to share a couple of thoughts on our identity as an organization as we enter this new chapter at TEGNA. We remain dedicated to fulfilling our commitments to all stakeholders. In 2023, we advanced our efforts to embed equity and inclusion into our company culture and business practices. Ensuring that our content teams and editorial decisions are inclusive is a strategic priority that allows us to represent the diverse perspectives of the communities we serve, fostering trust. We are driven by a passion and purpose to serve the greater good of our communities. Our local newsrooms are doing essential work in a challenging environment, and I want to express my gratitude to each of them for their daily contributions. I encourage you to review our 2023 impact report, which outlines our efforts to serve the greater good, now available on our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Julie to delve into our results in more detail.
Thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Before I discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results, I want to emphasize our commitment to capital allocation, as previously mentioned. We focus on creating long-term shareholder value. Our consistent free cash flow and strong balance sheet enable us to return substantial capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. After the merger termination in May 2023, we pledged to return nearly $800 million to shareholders, which we fulfilled by completing our second $325 million ASR program by February 22. Since May 2023, we have repurchased about 50 million shares or 22% of our outstanding shares. Additionally, we raised our dividend by 20% in May last year, leading to a total increase of 63% since March 2021. We plan to regularly review our dividend with the Board. With our previous capital return commitments fulfilled, we are excited to introduce a new capital allocation framework focused on long-term shareholder value creation. We anticipate returning 40% to 60% of our 2024 and 2025 free cash flows to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends. The remaining funds will be allocated toward organic investments, minor acquisitions, and preparing for future debt retirement. To support our repurchase efforts, the Board has approved a new two-year $650 million share repurchase program. We also provide a two-year free cash flow guidance range of $900 million to $1.1 billion for 2024 and 2025. Based on our outlook and capital allocation strategy, we expect to return $500 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends over the next two years. We also commit to allocating around $350 million in the first year of 2024, in addition to the recently completed ASR program. Overall, we anticipate returning a total of $1.3 billion to shareholders from the merger termination date through the end of 2025. Furthermore, we have received $153 million from the sale of our interest in BMI, which will contribute to our capital return strategy and potential acquisitions, such as our recent purchase of Octillion Media. Our financial discipline, low leverage below 3x, and manageable debt structure provide us with a robust balance sheet. All our debt carries a fixed rate of 5.2% on average, with no imminent bond maturities until March 2026. In January, we adjusted our revolving credit facility, reducing its size to $750 million and halving the fees on undrawn balances. Now, let’s review the drivers of our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial performance, which met or exceeded all our annual guidance metrics. Today's remarks focus mainly on TEGNA's consolidated non-GAAP metrics to offer insight into our business trends and operational results. You can find detailed data and comparisons in our press release. As noted, our fourth quarter results experienced impact due to a service disruption with a major distributor during our retransmission consent negotiations. This disruption occurred from November 30 to January 13. Without this unexpected issue, our fourth quarter would likely have met or exceeded consensus and stayed within our guidance range. Total company revenue for the quarter decreased by 21%, mainly due to the absence of cyclical political revenue from the 2022 midterm elections and the aforementioned service disruption. For the full year of 2023, total revenue reached $2.9 billion, marking an 11% decline year-over-year due to the cyclical dip in political ad revenue from the previous midterm election cycle. The lack of the Winter Olympics and Super Bowl in our NBC portfolio in 2022, compared to the smaller Fox Super Bowl in 2023, also contributed to this year-over-year comparison. Now, regarding our revenue components, full-year 2023 subscription revenue exceeded $1.5 billion, consistent with the prior year, boosted by rate increases, although partially offset by subscriber losses and the earlier service disruption. Excluding this disruption, subscription revenue would have risen by 2% compared to 2022. We anticipate renewing 20% of traditional subscribers by the end of this year and another 45% in 2025. In January, we successfully renewed our affiliation agreement with NBC, covering 20 TEGNA markets, including 10 of the top 25, serving over 21 million households and accounting for nearly 17% of the U.S. market. Notably, TEGNA remains the largest independent owner of NBC affiliates. In the advertising and marketing services domain, we observed improving advertising trends in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter, partly due to the political crowd-out from the fourth quarter of 2022. Overall, advertising trends saw continuous improvement throughout 2023. Excluding Premion in the fourth quarter, underlying trends grew mid-single digits compared to last year, with positive growth across almost all advertising categories, including automotive, services, retail, home improvement, entertainment, media, telecom, travel, tourism, and packaged goods. Regarding Premion, it continues to enhance its position in the convergent TV marketplace as local advertisers increasingly allocate budgets to streaming advertising. During the quarter, Premion further innovated its sales conversion attribution solutions, allowing advertisers to link their streaming ad spending directly to business outcomes, highlighting Premion's strong return on ad investment. Similar to previous quarters, Premion's overall revenue decreased on a year-over-year basis, influenced by the loss of a significant national account in the fourth quarter of 2022; however, its local revenue grew compared to a year ago. Premion remains focused on boosting local OTT revenue, where it is well-positioned to succeed. Local revenue growth for Premion finished strong, up double digits for the full year. In February, Premion finalized the acquisition of Octillion Media, a demand-side platform focused on local streaming advertising, which we believe will enhance our capabilities by merging Octillion's advanced technology with Premion's offerings. We expect this transaction to be beneficial to TEGNA's free cash flow and earnings per share within 12 months. Now, moving to expenses, our non-GAAP operating expenses amounted to $577 million for the quarter, reflecting a 2% decrease compared to Q4 2022. Excluding programming costs, our non-GAAP operating expenses declined by 4%, driven by lower variable costs of sales from digital revenue and improved expense management. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $177 million, resulting in a 24% margin. For the full year, non-GAAP operating expenses totaled $2.3 billion, showing a slight increase year-over-year due to higher programming costs, mostly offset by lower variable costs from digital revenue and effective expense management practices. Total adjusted EBITDA for the year reached $742 million, with a 26% margin. We continue to generate robust free cash flow, reporting $130 million for the quarter and $459 million for the year, primarily driven by our high-margin, stable subscription revenues and careful expense management. At the end of the year, we had total debt of $3.1 billion and cash of $361 million, with a net leverage level of 2.8x, which is well below our 3x full year guidance. Looking forward, as previously mentioned, our two-year free cash flow guidance spans from $900 million to $1.1 billion for 2024 and 2025. This marks our first two-year outlook, underscoring our confidence in the stability and resilience of our cash flows. We expect 2024 to be a strong year for TEGNA, driven by our advantageous station portfolio in key markets, benefiting from the presidential election cycle, the upcoming Summer Olympic Games in Paris, and the recently aired Super Bowl on CBS. Additionally, the renegotiation of network agreements will positively influence our outlook, given that 93% of our Big 4 subscribers are under long-term agreements through late 2026, which means minimal growth in reverse compensation fees moving forward. Most of our reverse compensation payments are variable and tied to subscriber numbers, offering financial stability and downside protection in this evolving media landscape. TEGNA's high-margin subscription and political revenues generate annuity-like EBITDA and free cash flow, constituting over 50% of our total revenues. Lastly, as noted earlier, we are implementing transformation initiatives to improve operational efficiencies and reduce costs, with benefits expected to materialize in the latter half of 2024 and continue through 2025. We will keep you updated on the progress of these initiatives in upcoming quarters. To summarize our full-year 2024 guidance, corporate expenses are expected to range from $40 million to $45 million. Depreciation expenses are forecasted at $56 million to $60 million; amortization is estimated between $46 million and $48 million. Interest expenses are predicted to be in the range of $170 million to $173 million, while capital expenditures are projected to be between $62 million and $67 million. We anticipate an effective tax rate ranging from 23.5% to 24.5% and expect to finish 2024 with net leverage below 3x. As part of our mid-term forecasts, we expect first-quarter total company revenue to decline low to mid-single digits year-over-year, reflecting lower subscription revenue, particularly from being dark with a distributor at the beginning of the year. We anticipate first-quarter operating expenses to increase slightly compared to Q1 2023, driven by rising stock-based compensation and programming costs. With that, we’ll now proceed to Q&A and welcome your questions.
Our first question comes from Dan Kurnos with the Benchmark Company.
There is a lot to discuss here. I really appreciate the insights you provided, and I'm very interested in the two-year cash guidance, particularly the free cash flow forecast. Julie and Dave, considering your unique situation with minimal reverse compensation growth and the variable nature of it, how should we approach net going forward, especially with the discussions around rate compared to subscriber attrition and the upcoming renewals? Also, regarding core trends, since you mentioned the Olympics and the political events in the latter half of the year that could influence rates, how should we consider these core trends as we progress through the year?
Yes. As you know, we don't provide guidance on new net retrans. However, when Julie mentions that the growth from reverse compensation is negligible, I would say it's negligible at best. We have adjusted our relationship to fit the model size appropriately. Therefore, I would say that net retrans will remain stable going forward, which helps stabilize our company. Again, we don’t provide guidance on it, but it's important for our cash flow projections and the durability of our model. We will have more opportunities to reprice that at the end of this year, but that number does not reflect any subscriber increases until the latter half of this year. I'll let Julie take it from here regarding core trends.
Yes. As far as advertising trends, we saw 2023 be sequentially improving throughout the year. We are seeing some softness on the national side as we're into first quarter of 2024, but we see local hanging on really strong and believe that the full year of advertising, both with the Super Bowl as well as the Olympic events this year, we will see advertising and marketing services flat to us throughout the year.
And Dan, I'll just add to that, as Julie has spoken about over time, really, since COVID, services has just continued, I mean, it's clearly an economic phenomenon, engine across the country, the entrepreneurship and the creation of sustainable small but really good, healthy midsized business in the services, we have done a great job finding those businesses and being a marketing arm for them, and it's turned into just an extraordinarily large category for us now, and that is just very, very durable and growing.
Our next question comes from Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.
I've got a few. So maybe just first on the reverse stuff. I agree, very interesting commentary there. I know you won't comment on any of your specific terms with your Big 4 agreements, but you're particularly heavy to one where we thought has always been variable. I'm just wondering if you've also been able to convert numerous others that have previously been fixed to variable reverse comp as well that's giving you that minimal increase in your reverse expectation ahead?
Thank you, Steven. I appreciate your insight. We typically do not disclose details about individual negotiations with networks. What I can say is that we had more than one agreement expire last year. While we have previously indicated that we maintain a mix, I want to point out that this is the first time I am sharing that a majority of our subscribers are now tied to a variable model. I'll leave it at that.
That's fair enough. I can conclude it from there. And then just on the Q1 guide, I know the blackout is dragging some of the revenue down year-on-year. It seems like that political should be up year-on-year. I think you're starting to comp some of the headwinds you had at Premion. So I'm curious if distribution would be up year-on-year ex the blackout, and if total revenue would be up year-on-year ex the blackout?
Well, on total revenue, on the advertising side, it's a little hard for us to know what the blackout cost us as it always is during those blackouts. It has some impact. So there's a little bit of noise in that. And I'll let Julie speak to retrans.
So our first quarter guide, just again, total revenue down in that low to mid range does include the blackout of DIRECTV. Excluding that, we would size DIRECTV, you heard in the fourth quarter so you can do your assumptions on the first quarter. And Premion, while it has cycled the large account last year, there are still headwinds on the national side of advertising in general. And first quarter always being our lowest advertising quarter throughout the year, we would expect those growth rates to ramp through the year, not necessarily in Q1.
Got it. And then finally on capital allocation. If I just take the midpoint of your free cash flow guide and the midpoint of your percentage that you'll do in dividends and buybacks, that's $500 million over 2 years. And then you've got the BMI proceeds as well. So that would imply that it's over $600 million, but still less than your new authorization. So I am just thinking about all of those components correctly. And then to get to the 2-year authorization, you just need to be at the higher end of your free cash flow guidance and your cash deployment guidance. Is all that correct?
Julie, I believe you are accurately considering all those factors. I'd like to emphasize our capital allocation framework, which is designed to ensure consistent and predictable returns for shareholders. This framework consists of three elements: shareholder returns, organic investments, and M&A opportunities. We will be prudent in our cash usage and will continually assess our investments along with the cost of debt as we make decisions about the remaining portion of our guidance.
Our next question comes from Craig Huber with Huber Research Partners.
Can you just go a little more in depth about the small acquisition you did next to Premion? What it brings to you guys, the technology, et cetera? And just what it means for your revenues in that segment, please? And I have a follow-up.
Sure, Craig. This is Tom Cox, good to be with you all this morning. So super excited about what Octillion brings to us moving forward on the Premion side. A couple of things I'd mention off the top. So owning our technology allows us to exercise more operational control on the delivery of campaigns. So that's a distinct advantage. Second, it enables us to drive greater innovation and product throughput. We're not relying on third parties to build the next generation of product that we need and our advertisers are looking for. And third, it allows us to improve our overall EBITDA margins because you're not paying the expense associated with those third-party vendors. I would also say, to your question around revenue growth, Octillion is a small but powerful company. And we expect that we'll be integrating Octillion through much of this year. But once the company is integrated into Premion, you have a unique marriage of a great sales platform, leveraging our rich broadcasting history and our hometown advantage in many of our markets, with a cutting-edge technology, and we're very bullish on what that can do both for revenue growth as well as EBITDA growth beyond the remainder of this year and into next.
Julie or Dave, would you like to elaborate on your outlook for revenue growth this year and how you anticipate it will unfold throughout the year? It seems like you expect the trends to improve as the year progresses, but I want to make sure I’m accurately capturing your perspective.
Correct. Correct, Craig, this is Tom again. We expect the trajectory on Premion revenue will improve throughout the year. A couple of things I would mention. First, we have fully cycled against that national account. As Julie alluded, there is the same sort of dynamics from a national and local perspective that we're seeing on the linear side in the Premion business, which isn't surprising because, remember, what Premion is really designed to do is take advantage of the converged linear plus streaming system that we're working in. So many of the customers that Premion have or has today overlap only with the techno linear portfolio. We do expect revenue improvement throughout the year. And obviously, the faster we can get Octillion integrated into Premion, the more that revenue trajectory can improve as we bring more innovative products to market.
And if I could just squeeze in 1 more, if that's okay. Advertising, Dave, just for the whole company in the first quarter, just go through a little bit further what your outlook is there for the first quarter? What's the Super Bowl benefit you guys on a year-over-year basis? The underlying plans there. Is auto getting worse or better versus what you saw in the fourth quarter, for example, or after the election in the fourth quarter?
Yes, absolutely. So first quarter, automotive continues to be strong. The underlying trends there continues to be strong, not as strong as we saw in the back half of 2023, but still...
Cycling against better comps, yes?
Yes, but still up mid-single digits. We also have other categories that continue to remain strong, such as services, which we talk about every single quarter, specifically home services, but also legal services. Health care is also trending favorably in Q1. And Super Bowl is approximately 1 percentage point of our total revenues in Q1 where we've sized that in the past, it's approximately $10 million of incremental revenue.
I agree with you, Craig. I want to emphasize that our underlying trends are quite positive. There has been some noise in the system on both the national and local sides, including issues with Premion, and we experienced a 45-day outage with a major distributor, which was not helpful. However, the underlying trends in advertising seem to be very favorable for us.
Our next question comes from James Goss with Barrington Research.
Okay. A couple of other points of clarification with Octillion. It mentions connected TV. And is this somewhat of an installation from subscriber churn to this faster-growing area right now? And also, does this extend to the partnership with Gray as affiliated with you in Premion, so it would relate to any of their involvement in that sector as well? Is this a part of Octillion or separately?
Correct, James. So this is Tom again. A couple of thoughts. So yes, it's very core. The Premion business is designed to take advantage of the migration of advertising dollars from linear to streaming. Where we are uniquely positioned in that change or that shift is that we leverage our strong network of local stations. So as I've shared with you all in the past, between the Gray stations, the TEGNA stations as well as Premion's direct sales force, we have what we sort of characterized as feet on the street and markets reaching about 80% of U.S. households across the country. And that is a formidable and very powerful sales force. And really bringing Octillion's technology in just allows us to deliver better and more innovative product to that sales force. And yes, to your second question, Gray, as a strategic partner, an investor in Premion will also be able to take advantage of the Octillion platform. And super excited to bring to Gray all the benefits that TEGNA will also benefit from.
You mentioned the potential for bolt-on mergers and acquisitions. I'm curious if Octillion is what you were referring to, or if you are also considering station acquisitions, if any are available. Additionally, do you believe the regulatory environment could shift if there is a change in administration, and would that impact any of your M&A opportunities?
James, this is Dave again. I'll address both of those questions. Yes, Octillion is the type of bolt-on merger and acquisition we refer to, as it doesn't significantly impact the balance sheet. This allows us to enhance our existing businesses, or the ones we develop organically like Premion, for future growth. Regarding bolt-on acquisitions, from a regulatory perspective, we'll have to see. Historically, Republican administrations tend to be more deregulated than Democratic ones, and this particular Democratic administration has been quite strict in maintaining or rolling back previous regulations. The change in administration could offer potential opportunities. Additionally, there might even be changes in leadership within the same administration that could influence this. We're monitoring the situation closely. However, based on our current position, I wouldn't say our main focus is on station mergers and acquisitions.
Our next question comes from David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.
Just given the added visibility on distribution and the variable model on the affiliate side, how do you think of the key drivers of the $200 million range in your free cash flow guide? Is that primarily building in for variability around advertising? And then a second question, Dave, you've noted TEGNA's recent carriage of local sports. Some of that's moving over from RSNs to San Antonio Spurs for instance in your footprint. As you've gone through some recent distribution renewals? I'm just interested to hear how MVPDs are looking at this content, whether that's a factor at all in negotiations, just given how outsized RSN fees have been in the past?
I will respond to the second question first, Dave. While I prefer not to discuss any distribution deals, I can say that local sports are among the most valuable content for consumers. Consequently, this makes them very valuable to distributors as well. There may have been a discrepancy in value between what distributors were paying under the previous model. This shift in the ecosystem can be seen as a rational adjustment from the distributor's perspective. To directly answer your question, local sports definitely hold value for distributors. Some may wish they could avoid paying those fees altogether, but local sports unquestionably remain valuable to them, and we recognize that.
And I'll take the first question about the range of our free cash flow guide and what factors would play into that. And I would say it's multifaceted, mostly around the economic environment. So advertising would be 1 trigger of that range. Subscriber trends would be another factor. We do continue to forecast subscriber declines. But for the next 2 years, that is definitely a factor that may impact that. And then the third.
Political advertising is also a factor. Unlike some of our peers with over 100 stations in smaller markets, we are more concentrated in larger markets. As you've seen in previous election cycles, we've experienced significant fluctuations. For instance, we saw an unexpected increase of 55 million during the two Senate runoffs in Georgia four years ago, and conversely, we can see a decrease when a highly contested Senate race loses momentum or when a candidate undermines their campaign. As a result, there can be a significant range in political advertising revenue.
There are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Dave Lougee for closing remarks.
Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for the call this morning. As we mentioned with our announcement today, we are now providing a 2-year free cash flow guide for the first time, which is supported by our very sustainable and durable business model. We look forward to discussing more details with you in the upcoming quarters as we share results for the year ahead, and we appreciate your interest. Thank you, and have a great day.
Thank you for your participation. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.