Unilever PLC Q3 FY2024 Earnings Call

Good morning and welcome to Unilever's Third Quarter Trading Statement. Thank you for joining us today. Prepared remarks today will take 15 to 20 minutes, leaving about 30 minutes for Q&A. And all of today's webcast is available live, transcribed on the screen. In a moment, Fernando Fernandez, our CFO, will take you through the details of the results for this quarter. And before that, I wanted to set out a few reflections on the quarter end, more generally on where I believe we currently stand. The first thing to note is that we have delivered another quarter of volume-led growth. Underlying sales in Q3 grew 4.5% with volumes up 3.6%. And this marks the fourth consecutive quarter of positive and improved volume growth. Importantly, volumes were positive across all business groups with the strongest performances in Beauty & Wellbeing and Ice Cream. In Ice Cream, we are starting to see the benefits of ongoing operational improvements. Progress here is unlikely to be linear but we do believe our Ice Cream business is on the right trajectory. Overall, growth in the quarter was once again driven by our Power Brands which were up 5.4%, including 4.3% volume growth. And these brands are undoubtedly benefiting from the increased focus and investments that we are putting behind them under our Growth Action Plan. More generally, the operational improvements we are making as part of the GAP helped to explain the stronger and more consistent level of delivery we are now experiencing. As part of that, I'm pleased that we are starting to see the positive impact from scaling fewer but bigger innovations across our markets. Alongside operational improvements, we are also continuing to take well-considered steps where necessary to sharpen and strengthen the portfolio. This quarter saw us exit the water purification business in China, for example, with the completion of the sale of our stake in Truliva. We also completed our exit from Russia in October with the sale of our entire business to the Arnest Group, the end of a considerate, lengthy and complex process. In those parts of the business, where we are not yet seeing the level of improvement we want, we are taking decisive action to correct and if necessary, to reset operations. In Indonesia, we are making a significant intervention to address both portfolio and route-to-market challenges. This is not a quick fix and we don't expect to see the benefits until well into next year but we are determined to see this through. In China, we are resetting our go-to-market approach in quarters 3 and 4 with a higher category focus, updated channel strategies and sharper geographic choices. I was pleased to have been in China recently to review the plans and to support our newly appointed leadership in that business. We will continue to build on our strong positions in core categories in China and I remain confident in our ability to compete in that market despite the broader economic slowdown. We expect to benefit from the changes we are making also in the second half of 2025 and onwards. Taken overall, our group results this quarter confirm that we are firmly on track to meet the outlook for this year. We also remain on track when it comes to the delivery of two important projects: the separation of ice cream and our company-wide productivity program and work on both is progressing as planned. On Ice Cream, we are building out the leadership team as they prepare to become a stand-alone company by the end of next year. Abhijit Bhattacharya has been appointed CFO, having previously been CFO of Royal Philips. And Ronald Schellekens has taken up the role of CHRO joining from PepsiCo. On productivity, implementation has already begun in those countries where consultation with the respective works councils have been concluded. And I will come back to say a few words at the end to sum up. But in the meantime, let me hand over to Fernando to take you through the detail of the results.

Thank you, Hein. Underlying sales growth in the third quarter was 4.5%, driven by accelerated volume growth of 3.6%. Pleasingly, growth was broad-based with all business groups delivering positive volume growth for the first time since Q4 of 2020. Given softer markets, pricing remains subdued with underlying price growth in the quarter at 0.9%. We expect subdued pricing for the next couple of quarters. However, several key commodities in our materials basket are starting to pick up, leading to moderate cost inflation and what we expect will be higher pricing over time. Our Power Brands continued to be the engine of our performance in Q3, delivering solid volume growth of 4.3% against a backdrop of slower market growth. We always said we would focus our resources first on the Power Brands to maximize value creation for Unilever. Of course, this only works if our other brands also contribute positively to the growth of the company, albeit to a smaller extent. In the third quarter, these brands delivered improved volume growth of 1.3%, a significant step-up from a decline of 1.6% in the first half. Let's take a closer look now by business groups. Beauty & Wellbeing delivered a strong third quarter with underlying sales growth of 6.7%, underpinned by 5.7% volume growth. This is the fourth consecutive quarter in which Beauty & Wellbeing volume growth has been above 5%. The performance was again anchored in our Power Brands which delivered high single-digit growth. Hair Care grew low single-digit. Dove delivered volume-led growth following the first half launch of scalp plus hair therapy. TRESemme grew strongly helped by the continued success of its treatments and styling range. Clear was flat in the quarter with strong growth in most geographies, offset by market weakness in China. Core Skin Care delivered mid-single-digit growth with strong performances from Dove, Vaseline and Pond's all driven by premium innovations recently introduced. For the 15th consecutive quarter, our combined Health & Wellbeing and Prestige Beauty businesses delivered double-digit growth. Health & Wellbeing was particularly strong, while Prestige Beauty felt the impact of a continued slowdown in the U.S. and China beauty markets. Personal Care grew 4.4%, driven by volume up 3.1% and price up 1.3%, with a particularly strong performance from our largest brand, Dove, that achieved another quarter of double-digit growth on the back of strong innovations across both deodorants and skin cleansing. Our deodorants category led the way once again with high single-digit volume driven growth. The performance in Latin America was particularly strong, while Europe and North America continued to perform well. Dove grew double-digit, benefiting from our expansion into Whole Body deodorants. Axe had a good quarter with the ongoing success of our fine fragrances range. Skin Cleansing grew low single-digit in the quarter. The first half relaunch of Dove's Body Wash in Europe, plus the introduction of Dove's premium serum-infused body wash range in the U.S. drove good growth in developed markets. This was tempered, however, by market decline in China, deflation in India and interventions mainly in Indonesia to reset our business there. Indonesia also had a negative impact on Oral Care that decelerated to low single-digit growth after a strong first half. Home Care grew 1.9%. Premium innovations continued to drive volume growth of 3.3%. This was partially offset by a 1.4% price decline linked to the impact of commodity cost deflation in several emerging markets. Fabric Cleaning declined low single-digit with strong volume growth in Europe and India, more than offset by price-led declines in important markets like Brazil and Indonesia. Persil Wonder Wash featuring our patented Pro S technology for short-cycle washes is off to a great start in Europe. And innovations in Surf Excel Matic and Rin are strengthening our competitive position in the emerging Indian liquids market. Home & Hygiene delivered mid-single-digit volume-led growth. Cif and Domestos both performed strongly. The European success of Domestos Power Foam continued with the expansion into new geographies, such as Poland and Turkey. Fabric Enhancers grew double-digit. This was led by continued double-digit volume growth from Comfort which benefited from the successful first half launch of its new Botanicals and Elixir branches using our patented CrystalFresh technology. Nutrition grew underlying sales 1.5% driven by price. Volume growth was relatively muted at 0.4%, amidst market slowdown and consequent increases in promotional intensity. Scratch Cooking Aids grew low single digits on the back of mid-single-digit growth in Knorr. Latin America was particularly strong, helped by our next-generation Bouillon & Seasoning ranges with enhanced flavors and micronutrients. The U.S. delivered mid-single-digit volume-driven growth. Dressings was flat in the quarter. Hellmann's flavored mayo continued to perform well and was recently introduced in new markets like Argentina and the Philippines. Volume growth in the quarter was offset by negative price as promotional intensity increased. Unilever Food Solutions grew low single digits with positive volume despite a decline in China. We continue to expand our digital selling program and benefited from the launch of Hellmann's Professional Mayo in Europe and Brazil. Ice Cream grew 9.8% with 6.7% from volume and 2.9% from price. As Hein said, this improved performance reflects the continued focus on operational improvements alongside strong innovations. Positive performance was also amplified by a weak prior year comparator. Magnum grew double digits. Its premium 'Pleasure Express range continued to perform strongly. And Magnum's bite-sized innovation, Bon Bons, addressing the consumer demand for smaller frequent indulgences is driving category growth across all seasons. Ben & Jerry's and Cornetto delivered high single-digit growth helped by the global relaunch of Cornetto with enhanced formulation and new packaging. There is a lot to do in Ice Cream and as Hein said, progress will not be linear but the quality of our innovations and the better operational grip on pricing and distribution has started to translate into improved competitiveness in the U.S. and several European markets. As you know, we run the business today through the lens of our five business groups. However, we think it's also helpful to provide some color on how we are performing from a geographical perspective. In Q3, we delivered broad-based volume growth with positive contribution from all regions. There were strong performances in developed markets. Beauty & Wellbeing in North America and Home Care in Europe, for example, both delivered double-digit underlying sales growth. As previously mentioned, we also saw significant improvement in Ice Cream. Last year, we committed to step up performance in Europe given its sizable hard currency market. We backed this up with a stronger innovation pipeline and increased levels of brand investment. It is pleasing, therefore, to see broad-based growth in Europe of 6.5%, with all major markets delivering positive volume-led sales growth in the quarter. In North America, underlying sales grew 7.4% with 6.2% from volume. This was delivered against the backdrop of weakening consumer sentiment and is testament to the potential of our transformed, attractive North American portfolio. In Latin America, underlying sales growth slowed to 3.8%. Brazil which delivered low single-digit growth was negatively impacted by deflation in its important fabric cleaning market. After eight quarters of exceptionally strong growth, Mexico grew modestly, reflecting some weakening of consumer sentiment. We continue to deliver positive volume growth in Argentina despite hyperinflationary pricing and a significant tightening of markets. Sales declines in Indonesia and China meant that Asia Pacific Africa grew 2.5% in the quarter. Volume growth in India remained above 3%, while underlying price growth of minus 1% would have been flat without a one-off indirect tax benefit in the prior year base. Africa and Turkey delivered another quarter of double-digit underlying sales growth with good volume and positive price. Southeast Asia declined mid-single digit, driven by an 18% contraction in Indonesia which was only partially offset by volume-led growth in the Philippines and Thailand. China declined low single digit, with market weakness across categories.

Let me return now to performance at the group level. Turnover of EUR 15.2 billion was in line with the prior year. Underlying sales growth of 4.5% was offset by adverse impact from acquisitions and disposals as well as currency. The net acquisition and disposal impact was minus 1.5%. The acquisitions of K18 and Yasso added 0.3%. Both have been performing in line with their acquisition business cases. This was more than offset by a disposal impact of minus 1.8%, driven by Dollar Shave Club, Elida Beauty and Truliva, the water purification business in China, whose sale was completed on August 2, 2024. Currency had an adverse impact in the quarter of minus 2.8%. This represented a bigger headwind than in the first half as most major emerging market currencies, except for the Chinese yuan, depreciated against the euro in Q3. Turning to the outlook for the remainder of the year. We are on track to deliver our full year 2024 outlook. We continue to expect underlying sales growth for 2024 to be within our multiyear range of 3% to 5%, with the majority of growth coming from volume. We expect underlying operating margin for the full year to be at least 18% with increasing investment behind our brands. We expect year-on-year margin progression in the second half. However, it will be smaller than in the first half, given the stronger comparators and some increases in replenishment costs, given the moderate return of commodity inflation. With that, over to you, Hein. Thank you, Fernando. It is exactly a year now since we launched the Growth Action Plan, a 10-point operational plan to transform Unilever's performance. And we made clear then that this was not a quick fix and that unlocking Unilever's full potential would take time. However, we can be encouraged by the progress we have made to date. And despite softening markets in a number of key geographies, we have seen a steady return to healthy top-line growth. And this is enabling us to invest behind our brands, our innovations and other proven drivers of growth. We are also tackling issues and implementing resets when it is simply the right thing to do. This investment-led strategy will continue to lie at the heart of our approach and at the center of our GAP plan. At the same time, we have set in train important and necessary changes to our portfolio and to our organization, which will set us up for long-term success. So a year on, we are encouraged but we are not complacent and we are far from done. We know we remain at the relatively early stage in the transformation of Unilever with much still to do. So we look forward to sharing the progress that we've made with you in more detail at our investor event in a few weeks' time. We will also take the opportunity then to set out how we plan to build on the growth action plan as we look ahead, not just to the next year but to the next three to five years and in some cases, even beyond that. Thank you for your attention. And we look forward now to taking your questions.

Good morning and thank you for joining the call. When it's your turn to ask a question, we will call your name, and you may proceed. Please limit your questions to a maximum of two.

Warren here at Barclays. My first question is regarding the solid results, but I wanted to address the weakness in Indonesia, which is down 18% in Q3. This region has been an underperformer for almost a decade. Why should investors believe that the turnaround this time will be different from past experiences? Fernando, could you explain in detail what actions are being taken and why you're confident that this time will be successful? Also, could you provide any signposts for us between now and the second half of next year regarding what to expect from Indonesia? I believe it accounts for 30% of your underperforming sales globally, so it’s crucial to get this right. My second question, directed more towards Hein, is about the restructuring occurring not just in Europe but globally, particularly regarding the reduction in workforce. Hein, you previously mentioned that the organization is feeling somewhat anxious about this. Can you reassure us that everything is on track, share where we currently stand with the numbers, and what we can expect as we move into next year? Additionally, will you be able to implement these changes in the next couple of quarters without significantly disrupting the business?

Thanks, Warren. I'll let Fernando address the specifics about Indonesia in a moment, but I want to share that Indonesia is a crucial market for us, and we are fully committed to overcoming the challenges it presents. I'm not pleased with our current position, but I want to clarify that we are implementing a very significant intervention right now. Our competitiveness and in-market sales are stabilizing, but we are changing our approach to the market. We're addressing price instability across various channels, adjusting stock levels through the entire channel landscape, and enhancing our product portfolio based on our global category strategies. In Q3 and Q4, we are making substantial moves in Indonesia, which will not produce immediate results but will require some time to show effects. This is likely the most extensive and impactful intervention we have undertaken. Fernando, would you like to highlight a few key points related to the numbers?

Just during the year, we have been recovering part of the share losses we suffered due to the consumer backlash that is related to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. We have recovered around a quarter of the share losses but if you look at our run rate, given the fact that our shares are down versus previous year, we should be declining around 5% to 6%. The difference in performance with our actual reported number is linked, as Hein said, with a clear reset of our distributor system. I have been in Indonesia in August close to a week. We have been taking drastic actions there. We are putting stocks in what we consider is more optimum levels going forward. And fundamentally, we are attacking an issue of pricing instability across channels that is really putting our distributor systems in disarray. Every time you do that, you have to dial up some channels and dial down some other channels. And there is a friction time that we believe it will take between 3 to 5 months to really stabilize. We expect to have some additional stock cleaning in the system that has to be done. But that's the situation in Indonesia. So shares are stabilizing. A quarter of the share loss recovered but much more to go. Significant challenges in terms of portfolio and making our brands more contemporary in the context of significant societal change and a significant reset of our distributor system underway in order to remove any price instability. This is what we are doing, huge drastic actions and we expect to see improvement in 6 months or so.

Thank you, Fernando. Warren, regarding the productivity and restructuring, here are a few comments. Firstly, in Europe, which is the area most affected, we have completed our consultation with the European Works Council. This is an important step. We are now proceeding with the process in various countries in Europe and we are on track. For the rest of the world, the design of the new organization has been completed and communicated, providing much more clarity. We are eager to offer clarity to our employees, which is the best approach. From this perspective, we are on track with clarity in place and we aim to achieve significant progress before the year ends. As mentioned, undertaking such changes can create anxiety, which is completely understandable and often driven by uncertainty. However, I sense a positive momentum as well. We have clear indications of this. Last week, Fernando and I met with our top 120 leaders globally to discuss long-term strategies. We feel optimistic about the company’s transformation, but we are also aware that we are in a phase of execution for restructuring in the third and fourth quarters. So far, there has been no significant impact on our performance.

All right. So my first question is on the pricing outlook. And especially, I presume it's a Home Care division question as well. But trying to understand where you think you will be hitting the ground on the lower pricing and then reaccelerating that? You mentioned that some of the commodities have started to rise again. So if you could talk about this versus maybe what could be as well a more competitive environment which may mean that you may have to keep prices or promotional level higher for longer? So that's my first question. My second question is on the U.S. market, where we've seen a very strong acceleration in volume mix. Could you go a bit into details on what has happened there? Maybe an ex Ice Cream performance there? And what kind of duration you will see in terms of those better volume mixes than expected in North America?

Thank you, Celine. I'll start off by discussing pricing. For the group, we saw a 0.9% increase in the quarter, which is a slight decrease from the 1% we reported in Q2. I am cautious about providing guidance on pricing for this year or next year. Our focus is on overall underlying sales growth. In the first half of 2024, we experienced deflation in our key commodity baskets, but we are now seeing moderate inflation return in the fourth quarter, particularly for cocoa, aluminum, and to a lesser extent, palm. We are attentive to these changes. Regarding promotional intensity, particularly in our beauty and personal care category, as well as home care, we have not seen a significant increase in promotions overall. However, we did increase promotional activity for ice cream and nutrition products, with ice cream promotions helping to adjust for pricing. Looking ahead, we anticipate subdued pricing in the next few quarters, followed by a likely return to moderate pricing levels that reflect inflation in our key commodities. In the U.S., the economy remains strong, and consumer sentiment is better than last year. Nevertheless, consumers are still dealing with the effects of inflation from two years ago. Post-COVID, while spending in the U.S. was robust, savings have decreased, leading to lower demand for high-end luxury products. However, in our core business, we continue to see a resilient American consumer.

Yes. I would add to that, Celine, that both our ice cream business and the rest of the portfolio has performed very well. The remaining company, excluding ice cream, grew more than 7% with 6% in volume. I believe it is a testament to what we usually call a seriously transformed portfolio in the U.S. that is very attractive in terms of growth. And if you look at our performance year-to-date, it's very, very solid in the U.S. The growth has been broad-based, not only in Prestige Beauty and Health & Wellbeing that had the 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth but also our core business in grocery, beauty, and personal care grew strongly. Our food business a bit more muted, low single-digit growth but we saw positive volume growth across the five business groups in the U.S. And we believe that this is really reflecting the strong portfolio that we have built through acquisitions, disposals, and organically in the U.S.

Just one quick question actually more a follow-up on LatAm and the trends you're seeing there in Brazil and Mexico. And then particularly in Mexico, it was a very strong growth driver historically. This looks like there's been a bit of a slowdown, whether it's from you or from some of your peers. Do you think it's just a temporary post-election slowdown or is it something a bit more structural there considering what's happening to the currencies?

Yes, thank you, Olivier. Mexico has been a significant growth contributor for us over the past eight quarters, showing double-digit growth for nearly two years. Currently, we've seen a more normalized quarter. In Latin America overall, Argentina has performed well for us, while Brazil has experienced some lower pricing, especially in Home Care, but is still holding up decently. I interpret this as a return to a more normalized growth phase after two years of strong performance. Competitively, we're performing well, and I anticipate that this more normalized trend will continue for the next couple of quarters.

Yes, adding some color on that. Just in Brazil, our BPC business, Beauty & Personal Care continues growing very, very strongly. But the laundry market is a powders market in which the commodity deflation has been more significant than what you see in the laundry liquids market that is more preeminent in developed markets and that has taken some impact on pricing. The Mexican situation, we saw a change in consumer sentiment after the election, some incentives that were put by the government before that have disappeared. But we believe that this is a short-term issue. And it's a bit dependent also on what will be the development of the U.S. economy in the medium term. In Argentina, the government is putting the right measures in place and the fiscal adjustment has been very dramatic with some impact in the economic activity. But our performance in competitive terms is really spectacular there. We are growing significantly ahead of the market.

So firstly, just in a follow-up to a question on Indonesia. You'd previously spoken about a very high proportion of our EBIT coming from maybe sort of a quarter or less of your countries you operate in. Do you think you'll be taking stronger interventions in the tail of smaller countries that you operate in? And is that something that we ought to think about as potentially a drag on organic growth at all over the next couple of years, notwithstanding there may be other things that you're doing to improve performance? But is that a factor that we should think about at all, please? And then just you're obviously growing at a 3% volume mix, excluding ice cream. At some point maybe that moderates a little and you've said best-in-class previously, over a decade, it was sort of 2.5%. If you do grow at sort of circa 2.5%, could you maybe just talk about the algorithm for you in terms of either gross margin or the drop-through to operating profit that you would see you'd be able to generate on 2.5% volume mix, please?

Thanks, Tom, for the questions. I'll address the first part regarding Indonesia and the smaller countries, and then Fernando will discuss the growth algorithm. First, concerning the smaller countries, we've reevaluated our operating model. In alignment with our global business groups leading operations, we've allocated more of our sales and supply chain resources, as well as R&D, to these larger markets. We are particularly focused on big countries like the United States, the U.K., China, Brazil, and Indonesia. In smaller markets, we operate more efficiently, combining our efforts under what we call One Unilever. We don’t separate our go-to-market strategies by category, which allows us to be more efficient. Therefore, I do not anticipate smaller countries to negatively impact profitability; rather, we will continuously seek enhancements. Coupled with our current productivity initiatives, I believe there will be no adverse effect as you mentioned. Fernando, can you address the growth algorithm?

Yes. We believe that in the medium term, the economy will reach a more normalized balance between volume and pricing. We are investing to ensure consistent growth of more than 2% in volume. As you can see, we have had four consecutive quarters of positive volume growth in the business, and we expect pricing to return to more normalized levels closer to the consumer price index, which is around 3% for our turnover-weighted CPI. To be among the top third total shareholder return companies in our sector, we need to achieve high single-digit earnings growth. In the long run, we believe the strategy and guidance we have shared will enable us to reach that level.

Two questions for me, please. The first one is on your unchanged margin outlook for the year. So Fernando, I think at the time of the first half results, you mentioned that you wanted to remain cautious and you were listing three reasons for that. You were talking about the competitive environment, the return of some inflation, and the depreciation of some currencies. So you were basically seeing 18% as a prudent floor at the time. So my question is, with only two months to go before the end of the year, do you still see 18% as cautious or have things materially changed be it on the BMI, the FX or the commodity front? And then my second question is on the separation of ice cream. I think Hindustan yesterday indicated that you will determine the mode of separation by the end of the year. I was wondering if you could confirm that? And also related to this, as you're making now some strong progress towards this separation, do you have better visibility on the stranded costs? And also maybe if you could provide some broad indication on the potential tax leakage that would arise from a sale of the business versus a separate listing?

Thanks, Guillaume. Fernando will address the ice cream topic and likely add to the prior discussion, but I want to share a few points first. We are maintaining our guidance as is. It's important to note that we experienced significant gross margin expansion in the first half of the year, which we do not expect to repeat in the second half. We previously mentioned that the first half benefited from some carryover pricing and deflationary trends. The second half will focus more on enhancing our net productivity, which is a key part of our strategy, but it won't provide the same advantage. We are also committed to investing in our brands and are in the process of resetting some operations. Our aim is to position the company for success in both the medium and long term, which is why we are not altering our guidance at this time.

Yes. I would add on that, that we are comfortable with our gross margin development and this is giving us a space to continue investing behind our brands strongly. And we will not comment any more on guidance. The guidance is the one we have given and we will not make any additional comment on that. Regarding ice cream separation, we are very pleased with the improvement in performance in ice cream. We believe that it is absolutely critical to drive stronger performance while we proceed with the separation. Separation at the global level is on track. We are working in the legal entity setup in 57 countries in which we are separating the business, setting up the stand-alone operating model and preparing the carve-out financials and everything is on track for the separation by the end of 2025. Regarding the announcement of Hindustan Lever yesterday. On September, the Board of Hindustan Lever set up a committee of Independent Directors to assess the best way forward of the business after the announcement of Unilever in March. Yesterday, they announced that they will proceed with the separation, like the parent company has done. As you know, HUL is a public company and needs to follow appropriate governance in line with local law. They have now confirmed the intention to separate and the mode of separation will be confirmed before the end of the year.

I'm just looking at nutrition which looking at the sort of line on the chart just sort of trending down, it feels like we're kind of going back to the old days. So Heiko has sort of been in for a while now. Is there anything that's going to be sort of radically different to the past in terms of strategy for Nutrition? Is there any reason we should start to be getting more optimistic as to when we see a transformation of Nutrition?

Thank you, Jeff. I appreciate your thoughts on Nutrition and its transformation and results. To start, Heiko has been with us since June, and we are concentrating on enhancing our competitiveness in our core categories, which include condiments, cooking aids, and our global Food Solutions business. These areas are central to our Nutrition strategy, and we aim to streamline the portfolio further. We are making progress on improving competitiveness, especially in condiments, and we have increased promotional activities in this sector. The Food Solutions business is growing as anticipated, showing mid-single-digit growth overall. Additionally, our Indian food segment, which encompasses local foods like tea, coffee, and Horlicks, has seen some pricing challenges in the third quarter. Overall, we are seeing better competitiveness and have made investments to strengthen our core areas of condiments, cooking aids, and Food Solutions. We are committed to expanding our Indian food business moving forward.

I have one follow-up question. When you talk about palm oil, I'm not sure I fully understand. Is it good or bad for you? Because when palm oil prices were down, you had this massive competitive pressure from local producers in India, Indonesia and some other countries. Now you're talking about palm oil prices obviously going up and its impact on margins. How should we think about it in the context of your Asia performance mostly? And my second question is in terms of your focus on constant currency EPS growth going forward, how should we think about it in the context of current results and the additional headwinds on the currency side of it? Is there any, I don't know, renewed hedging strategy, any stronger focus on selected markets? Anything just to keep in mind on these metrics.

Thank you for the questions, Victoria. I will address the first one regarding palm oil, and then Fernando will cover the foreign exchange topic. As you mentioned, when palm oil is experiencing deflationary conditions, we often see new local companies entering the market with lower prices. However, we observed an increase in palm oil prices in the fourth quarter. Currently, prices are not particularly high, which leads to significant competitive pressure, but this is something we’ve always encountered. To tackle this, our primary approach is to ensure our brand stands out as superior to the competition. When I review our market share in personal care, particularly in regions like Indonesia and India, I believe we’re performing well. Looking ahead, with moderate inflation, we should be well-positioned. While this situation may slightly impact competitive dynamics, I don’t anticipate any major changes. Our focus remains on delivering exceptional brands and products. Now, Fernando, over to you for the FX discussion.

On FX, we are very conscious of the importance of developing our earnings growth in hard currency. And this is a key element of our strategy now. We will not make fundamental changes to our hedging strategy. Our hedge has the intention of fundamentally giving us a reasonable period of time to put pricing in the market when there is currency devaluation, particularly in the E&E markets. When it comes to the short term, year-to-date, our currency impact is negative at around 1.9% year-to-date and it was worse than that in the Q3 but we expect the full year to be at around 1.5%. There is a positive impact in the Q4 that is linked to a very significant devaluation of Argentinian currency last year in December last year. And this year, there is an appreciation in real terms of Argentinian peso in a country that is significant for us when it comes to contribution to sales. So that's everything about currency.

So two for me. Just in terms of the broader question, just in terms of the developed markets, I mean, 7% volume growth for the quarter which is amazingly impressive versus emerging markets at 3%. I mean I think we'd have seen a few years ago for sure and certainly pre-COVID developed markets were struggling to get any volume growth. So I guess the question is what's really driving that 7% sort of level? Is there things you'd point to say, that's not obviously going to be sustainable? Would you expect into next year volume growth between developed markets and emerging markets to kind of balance off to be similar? Is that kind of what you're predicting in terms of your planning and/or related to that, is there an element of your new action plan over the last year has been focused on developed markets first. You're seeing the benefits there and emerging markets follow and that, that would see a step-up as maybe you implement some of the changes more broadly? And then the second question is on market share metric. I might have missed it, so apologies if I did but can you give us an update on the third quarter market share metric versus where we were in the first half, if that's there.

Thank you, David. I’d like to share some insights on our performance in developed versus emerging markets. In developed markets, we have placed increased emphasis on Europe this year, and we are already seeing positive results. This focus has primarily centered around introducing significant innovations, which the European consumers have responded to positively. Notably, all five of our business groups in Europe have experienced positive volume growth, particularly in Home Care, where we have historically faced challenges, but we are now seeing a turnaround. We are equally optimistic about the growth in Personal Care. When considering both the U.S. and Europe together, our global business units continue to thrive, delivering another quarter of double-digit growth, particularly in well-being, even though Prestige Beauty is not growing as rapidly. Brands like Liquid I.V. are successfully expanding into Europe, and OLLY is performing well in China. Additionally, our core U.S. business remains robust; we’ve made significant investments, including a complete relaunch of our Dove range, which has been a substantial innovation effort, with more initiatives on the horizon. We are encouraged by our U.S. business and anticipate that while European growth may slow down eventually, we have solid momentum. Turning to emerging markets, our numbers do seem unusual when compared with developed markets, and I agree with that observation. These results have been influenced by several specific factors, including a reset in Indonesia and our ongoing reevaluation and revamping of our go-to-market strategy in China, which may have some short-term implications. Nevertheless, we are optimistic that we will see positive growth in China in the second half of next year despite current headwinds. Additionally, we have faced unique challenges in India, including pricing pressures and one-time effects during Q3. Overall, while emerging markets may appear softer right now, we are committed to reversing these impacts and continue to invest in Europe, while maintaining strong momentum in the U.S.

Yes. Regarding competitiveness, we will provide a comprehensive assessment of our competitiveness with the full-year results. But as we said, we were expecting sequential improvement in the H2; we are seeing that materializing. You have seen yesterday Hindustan Lever communicated that we have turned positive in competitiveness in India. And I know that you follow similar market information that we follow, David. In Europe and U.S., we have seen progress also. So overall sequential improvement is starting to be materialized in our competitiveness, but the whole assessment will be done and communicated to you with the full year results.

Our final question comes from Ed Lewis at Redburn.

Thank you for joining us. I believe your last question was very insightful. We are making progress on our growth action plan, but it's important to remember that this is a multiyear journey and there is still much to accomplish. We look forward to providing more detailed updates at our upcoming investor event in a few weeks. During that time, we will outline our plans to continue enhancing the Growth Action Plan to ensure steady performance improvement in the future. We look forward to speaking with you then. Enjoy the rest of your day, and thank you for joining us.