Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before going to Q&A, I'd like to outline the key highlights of our Half One Results, as well as the progress we've made on our strategic priorities. Overall, our results are in line with our expectations and consistent with our full-year guidance, which we have reiterated today. Group EBITDA grew by 3.8% in the first half, despite the impact of the MDU transition and our decision to invest more commercially in Germany. This was supported by strong EBITDA growth across the rest of our footprint with the U.K. growing at over 8%, other Europe at over 3%, and with Turkiye growing by circa 50% in euro terms. As expected, service revenue trends slowed in Q2, reflecting the peak impact from the MDU transition in Germany. Moving on to our strategic priorities of customer, simplicity and growth. I'm pleased by the progress we are making to deliver the transformation of Vodafone. Our main area of operational focus this year is, of course, Germany. We have now completed the formation of our new management team with new directors for business, consumer, and IT. With an experienced team in place and having successfully navigated the MDU transition, we now need to make even faster progress with our number one priority, our customers. Our commercial KPIs are gradually improving, and the investments we have made in our networks have delivered what is consistently recognized as the best-fixed network in Germany. Together with our new wholesale agreements, we are now delivering gigabit-capable broadband to 75% of German households. This will underpin our ability to start delivering on our target of taking at least our fair share of market growth. Looking at our other main areas of focus, in business, we have seen a good reacceleration in trends in Q2 with the drag from project phasing unwinding. Growth in digital services was particularly strong at 18%, and this is where we continue to expand our capabilities and product set. We are also continuing to take significant steps to simplify our business. We have now actioned and communicated over 80% of our role reduction program and have also commercialized our shared operations having finalized our partnership with Accenture. On our portfolio actions, we are close to completing the reorganization of the Group, as we work towards securing approvals in Italy and the U.K. in the next few weeks. And finally, in our newly created Vodafone Investments division, there has been a significant amount of activity, with us most notably selling down a further stake in Vantage Towers for €1.3 billion in order to deliver the co-control structure we originally planned. In summary, our performance is in line with expectations as we move through this year of transition. The actions we have been taking will deliver growth for Vodafone this year and support a further acceleration into FY '26. With that, Luka and I are looking forward to your questions.

Thank you, Margherita. Our first question comes from Maurice Patrick at Barclays. Maurice, please go ahead.

Good morning, guys. Hopefully, you can hear and see me well. And maybe just start off with a question on Germany, please, hardly a surprise given the size. Clearly, a lot of moving parts in the German business. I mean, your results, as you show in the presentation are clearly impacted by the MDU TV migration to a lesser degree, the lapping of the price increases from a year ago. Your historic comments suggest a U-shaped recovery, I think, in Germany, and you talked about the market being healthy overall. I know you've got the 1&1 wholesale coming in I think from the third quarter sort of €100 million a year run rate once it's fully there, but you still have broadband net ads negative. So curious to understand the trajectory in phasing, specifically of broadband net ads service revenues and EBITDA over the next couple of quarters in this next year, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Thank you, Maurice. I'll take the net adds and then hand over to Luka for service revenue and EBITDA. As you will have seen in the results today, we have seen an improvement in our net adds performance in fixed, and this is because the overhang that we had been suffering from the price increases we've done on our base is now behind us. In the quarter, you will have seen that the cable net adds are only marginally negative. DSL on the other end is still negative. And there we are starting to see that within the markets, there are some first signs, I would say, of migration towards fiber. So at our end, what you should expect is two things. First of all, we have, as I was just mentioning changed the perimeter of what we sell in Germany. In addition to our 25 million cable households, we have now opened to fiber wholesale, which is bringing on board with Vodafone another 5 million households of footprint. Today, obviously, this will continue to grow as the rollouts grow and OXG grows, but call it now 30 million households so it's 75% of German households to which we will now be able to market gigabit products. And obviously, this is a very good level of penetration ahead of any other player. And you should expect us that's the second point on your sort of forecast trends. You should expect us to see net adds continuing to improve through the course of this year. We are seeing this already in October and stepping back, obviously, our target is our fair share of market growth. And we have now in place I think all the tools to deliver on our target with the well-invested and fiberized cable network and the footprint fiber that will allow our customers in the DSL areas to get also gigabit products. But on the very important service revenue and EBITDA trends.

Yes. Obviously, that is quite a rich question, but I'll try to give you a comprehensive answer. First of all, indeed, we have talked from the beginning of this year about Q2 being at the bottom of a U-shape of our performance in Germany, and actually also beyond, honestly speaking, as a result of the weight of Germany. And what we have seen in Q2 is indeed that we have reached the peak of the MDU transition impact with a 3.8% year-over-year headwind, 2.6% quarter-over-quarter. And in addition to that, as you rightfully mentioned as well, the lapping impact of our broadband price increases has contributed another 1.5% from a quarter-over-quarter perspective. So what to expect now from here onwards? First of all, in Q3, you should expect a broadly similar performance in Germany as the one that you have seen in Q2 for a variety of reasons. One, the run rate of the MDU transition will obviously, also stay with us in Q3, before we start to lap it in Q4 where we had last year the first smaller impact of the transition. In addition to that, we will have another smaller cohort from last year that has been going through the price increase in broadband being added. On the flip side, we will see first smaller positive effects from our commercial performance improvement as well as an admittedly small impact in the quarter from 1&1. Then in Q4, we will start to see an improvement in the performance as one-and-one is becoming a bigger part of the pie. In total, I would estimate a roughly €50 million benefit from 1&1 for this year and most of it is going to actually land in Q4. And then again, the MDU impact will start to fade away and therefore, Q4 will be better in Germany. And then as we move into next year with of course the 1&1 effect coming to the full ramp from the second half year and the MDU impact fully lapping, that's of course where we expect Germany then to be back on a positive trajectory as we had always talked about together with the improved commercial trends that Margherita has also been highlighting. When we then take a look at the EBITDA performance, I would expect the second half year to also be broadly similar to the performance that we have seen in the first half year because the MDU impact will be also pretty much the same. We will have less impact from the investment into the program because this is now fading off, but on the flip side, we will have a higher absolute revenue drag in the second half year as we were just reaching the full run rate in the second quarter. So the impact from the MDUs will be pretty much the same. We will also have a slightly lower benefit from the energy expense unwind, which was bigger in the first half year. Against that, we will have the increasing benefit from the 1&1 program. And we will continue frankly to invest into our commercial performance into our brand recognition in the market as we have done in the first half as well. That aside, as we move into FY '26, basically the same applies as on the revenue front, we will see Germany back as a positive contributor to EBITDA growth also because we will have additional help on the cost side from the ongoing workforce transformation program that will then reach its run rate contribution that we're expecting from it plus, of course, some of the investments that we are taking this year, for example, into GenAI driven productivity will actually pay off. So from that perspective, Germany will certainly be back in positive growth territory on the EBITDA front.

Thank you, both.

Thank you, Maurice.

Thank you. The next question comes from Emmet Kelly at Morgan Stanley. Emmet, please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for giving me your time. I would like to discuss the service revenue outlook for the rest of the year. As you mentioned in Q1, the Group is expected to experience a slowdown, particularly due to the situation in Germany. Luka, can you share your thoughts on the outlook for service revenues across the rest of the Group, especially regarding Vodacom, the U.K., and Turkiye? Thank you.

Yes, I suppose I’ll take that. From a Group perspective, as we mentioned previously, we anticipated Q2 would be our lowest point, and that remains accurate. We expect to see slightly better growth in the second half of the year compared to Q2. The main elements contributing to this will include Germany, which we foresee remaining stable in Q3 and then accelerating in Q4. In the U.K., we anticipate a slight improvement in growth trends. As you may have observed, we moved from flat growth to an increase of 1.2% in Q2. I believe we can achieve better results moving forward. Our consumer business is performing very well, and we expect a positive second half in that area. Overall, the U.K. looks promising for us in the latter half of the year. Other European markets remain solid and predictable, reflecting a similar growth profile as in the first half. In our emerging markets in Africa, particularly in South Africa, I expect additional opportunities for higher growth, especially since we faced a tougher first half from a year-over-year comparison. Africa should perform slightly better in the second half. Turkiye, on the other hand, has been performing exceptionally well, gaining market share and showing strong results in real euro terms. I expect this success to continue, although it's likely that growth rates will eventually need to moderate. Taking all these factors into account, I believe we will witness a moderate increase in growth for the Group in the second half of the year.

Yes. I take the opportunity to shout out to our Turkish team because we have just achieved the highest-ever market share of Vodafone in Turkiye. So really excellent execution there.

Super. Thank you very much.

Thank you. The next question comes from Akhil Dattani at JPMorgan. Akhil, please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks so much for taking the question. If I could maybe just ask a question around the outlook and there's two bits to it. One is just operationally. I guess the challenge with Germany has been it's been tricky to understand really commercially what's going in the market and really how we should think about what that means for that U-shape recovery that you've talked about. So could you maybe just unpack for us a little bit commercially what you've done and already, maybe what you need to do still just to give us a bit more comfort around the turnarounds that you're talking to here? And the second bit of it is, if I guess I think more strategically, you've reshaped the Group quite materially over the last 12 months. If we think going forward, how should we think about your priority as a Group? Is it about top line growth? Is it about cost-cutting? Is it about return on capital? Just if you could maybe frame for us really what are you looking for as you think about the Group going forward? Thanks a lot.

Thank you, Akhil. I'll begin by addressing your question about our future outlook. There's significant transformation happening at Vodafone, and while some changes are visible, others are more operational and less apparent. On the portfolio front, we are nearing the completion of reshaping our European operations, with approval processes in Italy and the U.K. wrapping up soon. We expect to see the completion around early 2025 and are looking forward to FY '26, when our strategy will be implemented in growth markets where we can achieve local scale and generate returns. A key focus for us is establishing strong long-term growth that translates into returns. Growth starts with the top line, but true returns come from growth in EBITDA and cash flow, which is our main goal. In our planning, we always consider how returns on capital evolve over time, which has been at the core of our recent transformation efforts. Our current mantra emphasizes customer simplicity and growth, as long-term growth relies on customer choices. We're now reporting customer KPIs alongside financial KPIs, and I'm proud that we lead in net promoter score in nine out of fifteen markets, with significant achievements in the U.K. Customer satisfaction has risen, as evidenced by our highest-ever NPS and lowest churn, coupled with strong market momentum. Managing the Group simply is key to creating long-term value. Now, regarding your question about changes in Germany, we're driving structural change across operations, and while this transformation will take time, we've made substantial progress in the last 18 months. We've onboarded a new leadership team with experienced personnel in consumer and business sectors. Additionally, we've successfully managed the MDU transition, which has involved securing 4 million customer contract changes in a short timeframe. We're also simplifying the Company with a 20% role reduction, which is significant for a market like Germany. Our strategy for fixed broadband is crucial for our commercial performance, and we are actively investing in fiber to provide gigabit speeds to our customers while avoiding reliance on DSL. More changes are on the horizon as we look forward to transitioning beyond this year into FY '26. I apologize for the lengthy response, but it's an important topic.

That's very helpful. Thanks very much.

The next question this morning comes from Siyi He at Citigroup. Siyi, your line is now open.

Hello, and thank you very much for taking my questions. And I just have a question on the U.K. I was wondering if you can talk about the competitive intensities that you're seeing in the U.K. because I think especially in B2B, you're still seeing that U.K. B2B service revenue is still in decline. And also following up on that, I understand that the first half of U.K. EBITDA growth is helped by the cost benefits and energy tailwinds. I'm just wondering if you can help us to understand what will be the moving factors that we should consider on the cost side in the U.K. when we think about the EBITDA trajectory in the second half. Thank you.

Thank you, Siyi. I'll take the competitive intensity and then hand over EBITDA to Luka. The U.K. is a competitive market. That's very clear. I think you see it in everyday numbers. Typically, it's a market that steps up with inflation on the front book and the back book with the main operators, but there is continued competition triggered by the many brands that are now operating in the market. I wouldn't be particularly concerned about B2B. You raise B2B rightfully so, it was flat in the quarter, but this is an area where we still have project phasing in play and you should rest assured that you will see the growth rate stepping up into positive in the second half and overall for the year, B2B contributing to positive growth in our U.K. operations. More broadly, I'd say that it's a competitive market in which we compete very effectively. I talked earlier about the benefits that we are seeing of our engagement with our customers and our record level of customer satisfaction. This translates into our commercial momentum. We are growing 50,000 net adds in broadband typically in a quarter, one of the fastest-growing operators in the market. Slightly hidden because of summary class, but the same is true actually this quarter in consumer mobile, yes. So we compete effectively and our focus is really, again, talking about structural support for our long-term growth is really about maintaining a strong brand and strong engagement with our customers. And I think it's playing out pretty well. But Luka, you can talk to EBITDAs.

Yes, absolutely. And just to note as well as both of our primary competitors in the U.K. have already reported, I think you can also easily compare our performance in the U.K. with theirs which I think should give you a good frame of reference of how competitive we are both in consumer, but also in B2B. But on the EBITDA front, this was obviously, a very good news story in half year one. But I had flagged actually, already at our Q1 results that there was also some level of OpEx phasing on a part of that mix. So in the second half here you should not assume that the U.K. is operating at the same level of EBITDA growth and we should see a step down in that growth due to two reasons. First of all, the positive energy impact in the first half year, which was contributing 2.7% to EBITDA growth in half year actually is going to fade in the second half year as we were seeing already a reduction in cost last in last year's H2, and there is also going to be some degree of OpEx phasing and going into the second half-year that was not around in the first half-year. But still, the U.K. will end the year at a very solid and good performance in EBITDA growth. So think about it in terms of mid-single-digit growth that should be a safe bet for you to rely on.

The next question this morning comes from Robert Grindle at Deutsche Numis. Robert, please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you. My question is on the JVs, which is a big chunk of value on your balance sheet. You mentioned in the pre-comment that you are down to 50/50 in towers and that's been a successful journey of monetization. Have we reached the end of that road? Or can you imagine further sell-downs or towers consolidation? And with your balance sheet improving, has that seen the necessity to co-control towers dropped away? And what's your thinking on the Dutch JV as there seems to be a proposal there? Thank you.

Sure. To summarize, regarding the Dutch joint venture, it's an ongoing conversation. I would say there is no new information. As for VodafoneZiggo, I have mentioned before that 50/50 joint ventures may not be a permanent arrangement. However, we are very pleased to be in a strong market with a valuable asset and a solid partnership with Liberty. Our current focus is on managing it for growth. The management falls under Vodafone Investments, and we have recently brought on a new CEO. Our goal is to enhance performance there. There are no new plans for towers at this time, and we are content with our 50/50 position, which is secured by a lockup that will last until March 2026.

Correct.

And then over time beyond that, I think we will always have to look at what's in the best interest of Vodafone also considering the evolution of the tower market in Europe.

If I may just add, there is nevertheless one very visible opportunity for further value creation and that is increasing dividends over time, in particular, from Vantage Towers. And we have seen already in the first half year a very nice step up in dividends. So I would expect that, for this year, we will probably see €100 million more in dividends from Vantage Towers than we have seen in FY '24. And as this business continues to develop in a solid state, I think that's certainly not the end of the possibilities.

Thank you.

The next question comes from James Ratzer at New Street. James, please go ahead.

Good morning, thank you. I would like to ask a question about Germany, specifically regarding the mobile market instead of the fixed line. I've noticed that Deutsche Telekom has made some aggressive moves with their promotional offers. Telefonica seems to be stepping up their efforts as well. Additionally, I heard today that there is a need to be more competitive with pricing in the fourth quarter due to heightened competition in the German mobile market. It appears that you are one of the few carriers currently maintaining stable pricing. I would appreciate your insights on the competitive landscape in German mobile, whether these pricing changes from your rivals concern you, and if you feel a need to adjust your own pricing in response. Thank you.

Thank you, James. If you go back to last May, I did flag that we were seeing the market in Germany becoming more competitive at the low end of the mobile spectrum. In those days, we were talking about competition on resellers. We were talking about second brands, prepaid, that part of the market. Now it's fair to say that in the last month instead, we have seen one operator choosing to do a substantially more for less, I would say, move across the spectrum of its whole lineup, including on the main brand. So obviously, this means also the mid to high-end side of the market. Now this is very recent. I need to say I struggle to rationalize it. Myself this would be a question for other people, but from our side of the equation, I would say that we need to follow closely this evolution. We have seen the German market in the past as orders sort of going up, going down, and it's very, very early days in that respect, but it's something that you should expect us to follow very closely.

But you don't think that would lead to any deterioration at all in your German mobile service revenues in the second half.

I think what you should expect us to do is, as always remain disciplined. You have called it out now yourself. In terms of broader impacts on the market, I think it's a bit early to call it out and it will really depend on the choices that will be made.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you. The next question comes from David Wright at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. David, please go ahead.

Hopefully, I'm muted here. Thank you for taking the questions. It is a question on German fixed. And I did notice your release a couple of weeks back, when you stated you had the biggest fiber footprint in Germany, but there was a very curious German comment in German in the release that said footprint without senseless overbuild. And I did wonder, Margherita, I feel like you've tried to introduce this strategy a little bit more on the call. Is the wholesale purely for the areas where you don't have cable? Or could it be that you start to consider the likes of Deutsche Glasfaser, the more sort of rural and suburban areas where the overlap with you is now building with your STUs and where the cost to build is slightly much higher? And could we start to see this Vodafone fixed strategy in Germany now start to evolve a little more and maybe a little bit more wholesale, maybe some JVs, maybe some own build? I do feel like you're trying to introduce a bit of a narrative here so I'm keen to explore. Thank you.

Thank you, David. We always begin with our customers' needs and aim to provide them with the best options. To achieve this, we ask our customers what services they require. In areas with cable, we can meet their needs with cable services. In DSL areas, we are now able to offer higher speeds, moving beyond just DSL, which will enhance our service. Consequently, I want to highlight that we plan to provide all interested customers in three quarters of German households with access to 12 gigabit products. This is our primary focus. Additionally, in DSL areas, we are starting to witness initial signs of fiber churn in the market. We will ensure that our customers are able to choose fiber for optimal service. This relates to our commercial offers and their impact on our net additions. From an infrastructure perspective, our strategy remains consistent. We continue to fiberize our cable network as previously discussed, while also driving our build efforts where it makes sense, particularly through OXG and its 7 million households initiative. This is our current focus.

So the current plan is the 7 million in the joint venture, right?

Correct.

There might be some opportunities in that area. What is the plan for expanding the fiber cable network? Are there any current targets for fiber expansion or associated capital expenditures?

Yes, you're correct. On the 7 million, there is 1 million, which is also greenfield, and beyond that, we will be happy wholesalers of a range of providers as we are doing now with Deutsche Telekom and Deutsche Glasfaser. Over time, this range could also change depending on where there are good business cases for us.

The next question comes from Javier Borrachero at Kepler Cheuvreux. Javier, please go ahead.

Good morning, Margherita and Luka. My question is about regulation. At the European level, we now have a new commission and a new parliament, and I would like your thoughts on what we can expect from this regulatory period, especially in light of the report by Mario Draghi regarding the future of European competitiveness. He proposed various ideas on single market harmonization, in-country consolidation, cross-border consolidation, cross-border services, networks, and a level playing field. Some of these may be more controversial, while others could find consensus. Could you share your insights? Additionally, regarding the regulatory aspect, there may not be much new to discuss about the U.K. and Italy, as you mentioned in your press release that you expect these two deals to close soon. However, I have a question about Romania. With the agreement with Digi that may also involve in-country consolidation, what do you anticipate regarding regulatory review remedies in Romania? Thank you very much.

Thank you. I could discuss regulatory matters for quite some time, so let's begin with Romania. Romania presents a promising opportunity for us to achieve significant returns by effectively leveraging synergies. There is one operator that is planning to exit the mobile market, and we have recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a three-way agreement to acquire Deutsche Telekom Mobile alongside Digi. At this point, it is still a Memorandum of Understanding, so it's early in the process, and we are moving into detailed due diligence. Regarding the execution and future developments, we expect that the review process in Romania will be influenced by the deal's final structure given the scale we are considering. Additionally, I would describe this deal as relatively immaterial in the broader context of the Group. On the regulatory side, we have put in significant effort over the past year and will continue to engage with European regulators, as Europe has been lacking investment in telecommunications for far too long. It was encouraging to see that the reports from Draghi and ECTA, which included essential recommendations for the telecom industry, have been adopted into the mission statements of the new commissioners currently operating in Europe. This marks a positive development, but we need to observe in the coming months how these mission statements will turn into actionable measures. You can expect us to remain actively involved in this dialogue because it is crucial that investment is recognized as a driver of healthy competition within the EU, similar to what we are currently witnessing in the U.K.

Thank you very much, Margherita.

Thank you. The next question comes from Polo Tang at UBS. Polo, please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I just have a question in terms of other Europe. So it saw a solid performance in Q2, but how should we think about the impact of Digi's launch in Portugal? If I'm not mistaken, I think that they've launched with a €4 per month tariff for 50 gigs of mobile data. Thanks.

Yes, Polo. Launched last week, I would say, without surprises, the usual playbook with aggressive pricing. The important point about Portugal is that it's very different from other markets where we have seen Digi operating and it's also a market in which we have a position worth calling out. From the market perspective, it's mostly quad play, very high percentage of contract in the base, and a very low churn, but perhaps most importantly, it's an interesting market in the sense that the front book in Portugal is positioned higher than the back book. And then as far as we are concerned, we have a very strong brand in Portugal. I was talking about customer satisfaction earlier. Our customer satisfaction in Portugal is, I don't know how to express this, but let's call it miles ahead any other player, and I think you will have seen it maybe if you ever traveled in the country. And therefore, we have very strong loyalty. Now, of course, there is competition ahead. We already have in the market an established first brand and second brand, and we look forward to compete.

We have time for one last question today, which comes from Andrew Lee at Goldman Sachs. Andrew, please go ahead.

Okay. Good morning, everyone. I'm just going to bring us back to Germany. And just thinking about FY '26. So you have stated your return to growth, but clearly in that statement also highlighted the 1&1 contribution. So when we're just trying to think about underlying growth that you'll be delivering in Germany in FY '26, will you grow that 1&1, and if not, why not? Thank you.

Can I just say, I'll hand over to Luka, but it's early days to go into detailed guidance in FY '26 in Germany. There are a number of factors we will have to consider, including the competitive environment. But Luka.

I would even go a step further. I do not think we should introduce another derivative of growth based on a commercial agreement stemming from operational collaboration that has convinced market players to work with us. If we were to start that, it raises the question of where it would lead us. We also do not highlight individual MVNO wholesale agreements in various markets. For me, the performance of 1&1, unlike the external legal changes we are currently facing with the MDU transition, is an integral part of our overall performance in Germany. Therefore, I wouldn’t focus on breaking out underlying performance in that manner.

I couldn't agree more, although I'm pretty sure that when we will end up doing the quarter-on-quarter movements of the next year, there will be again a lot of detail, but not on the headlines and far too early.

Yes. I think it's another way of looking at it. It is obviously, to recognize that as we onboard the 1&1 contract, there will of course be a step up and the ramp, and that's what we have been talking about already in the context of the second half year, and that is obviously a valid question to us. I'm very happy to discuss this as we move into the next year. But at some point, we need to recognize that this is an operational agreement that we have won and that we will benefit from. And I wouldn't really kind of separate that from the rest of our performance.

Thank you.

Thank you, Andrew.

That was the last question. And I would now like to hand back to Margherita for any closing remarks.

Just thank you very much for being with us today, and look forward to the meetings in the roadshow and beyond. Thank you.

Thank you very much.