INPOST (INPST) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning, my name is Gabriela Burdach and I'm the Investor Relations Director at InPost. Welcome to InPost's second quarter 2026 earnings call. A usual disclaimer, today's call includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and it is possible that the actual results may differ materially. This call is also being recorded and the recording will be available on our IR website shortly after we wrap it up today. After the slides, we will have a Q&A session. Today's presenters are Rafał Brzoska, CEO, Michael Raus, CEO International, and Javier Van Engelen, CFO of InPost Group. I'm now pleased to hand over to our CEO, Rafał, over to you.

Good morning, everyone. Thank you, Gaby, and thank you all for joining us today. Q2 2026 was a quarter of continued growth for InPost Group, though the picture was more mixed than in previous quarters with strong momentum in the eurozone tempered by the ongoing transformation of our uk business in total we handled over 318 million parcels up 16 percent year on year revenue reached 4.2 billion polish up 18 percent once again growing faster than volume Adjusted EBDA came in at just over 1 billion Polish Zlotych, up around 4%, and CAPEX was half a billion, up 7%. International markets now account for 54% of group revenue, underlining just how much of our growth is being driven outside of Poland. let's take a look at how our network continued to scale over the past 12 months at the end of q2 we operated over 98 000 out of home points and today we can say we've already crossed 100 000 out of home points and 70 000 apms over the last 12 months we added 15 600 new apms which is the record-high deployment we have ever had. On Pudos, you'll see a decline of about 5,500 points across all three regions. That's a deliberate outcome of our network optimization strategy as we continue to shift the network mix towards APMs. We remain the number one APM network in Poland, France and the UK. Iberia has also recently become the largest Docker network in its market and we continue to hold the number two position in Italy. With that, let's turn to update on Poland. Poland delivered consistent volume growth in Q2, up 9.5% to 198 million parcels. APM volumes were broadly stable, up just 1%, while Tudor volumes grew 46%. Again, largely driven by demand from international marketplaces. Excluding the top five marketplaces, our volumes grew 16%, once more ahead of the broader e-commerce market, with domestic merchants, particularly in fashion and beauty, continuing to perform strongly. Let's move on to the next page. Poland continues to operate the largest APM network in the country, and in Q2, the number of in-post machines grew 12% to nearly 30,000. This density keeps improving accessibility. 90% of the urban population and 66% of the total population now lives within a seven-minute walk to an in-post APM. Consumer preference remains exceptional. According to the latest Cantor survey, conducted in June, 96% of consumers now receive parcels via impulse lockers and 91% use them to send parcels. Both figures improving yet again versus the previous survey, keeping us the clear most favorite APM network in Poland. Next slide, please. Beyond the network, our advantage comes from an extremely loyal and engaged user base, which we show you every quarter. Today, around 26 million people, effectively the entire Polish e-commerce population, use in-post APM and two-door services. Of these, 21 million are regular APM users, including 17 million app users and 15 million loyalty program participants. This engagement shows up directly in our NPS. InPulse scores 76 well ahead of the next 4 players who are all in negative territory. Our users are at the heart of everything we do. We invest in their experience, convenience and engagement because ultimately it is their trust and everyday choice of InPulse that drives our volumes and our growth. With that, let me hand over to Michael, who will take you through our international performance.

Thanks, Rafael. Good morning, everyone. So, let me start with our Eurozone business, which had another strong quarter. Volume grew 30% to over 100 million parcels, once again outpacing the underlying e-commerce market, which grew around 9%. B2C volumes were up 30% and APM volumes were up 45% year on year, underlying the strength of the shift to our locker business. The APM out-of-home flow rate reached 47%, up from 40% a year ago. Next slide, please. We continue to build Mondial Relay into a trusted European love brand, and the momentum keeps building. Our overall network grew 13% to nearly 46,000 locations, and the brand itself keeps resonating. And within those 46,000 locations and the growth, APMs grew over 52%, so clearly we continue to build and create a dense network. Mobile app downloads reached 10 million, nearly doubling year on year. recognition is following mondial relay by inpost was again named amongst france's most valuable brands in ranking this april and we continue to lead and grow our mps and our network awareness across most of our european markets having gained further ground in several of them now let's move to the uk volumes in q2 grew by 16 to 82 million parcels with b2c now representing 61% of the mix, up 27%, while C2C was roughly flat year-over-year. APM and returns volumes were up 29% year-over-year. An important milestone in July 26, Yodel was rebranded to InPost, bringing our UK operations under a single brand for the first time. And customer sentiment continues to improve alongside this with our Trustpilot score now 4.9 out of 5 and mobile app downloads reaching 8 million and during July we are in the top two or three free app downloads in the total UK market. Turning to our network position, we continue to extend our lead as the largest APM network in the UK. Our out-of-home network grew 17% to nearly 20,000 points while we continue to rationalize our PUDU footprint in line with our network optimization strategy. Our operational quality keeps improving in step. More than 77% of B2C parcels are now delivered next day and more than 97% within two days. That's it for my site and thank you and let me now hand over to Javier.

Thank you Rafael and Michael and good morning everyone. Let's now turn to the company's key figures for Q2 2026 and see how the business developments are reflected in the numbers. Before getting into the segment details let me highlight the main points on our Q2 group performance. Start with the top line. In Q2 we handled 381 million parcels up 16% while revenue grew 18.2% to $4.2 billion Polish Lottie, again outpacing volume. Turning to profitability, Q2 adjusted EBITDA grew by 4.4% to $1.043 million Polish Lottie, with margin declining to 25%, reflecting the segment mix effects and continued investment in new services. Below the EBITDA line, adjusted EBIT declined 19.3% and adjusted net profit declined 50%, mainly reflecting a higher depreciation base and a less favorable FX comparison than a year ago. CAPEX increased 7% to 504 million Polish Lottie, and net leverage rose to 2.5 times from 2.1 times a year ago. Let me take you through the segment results in the next pages. In Poland, in Q2, volume grew 9% to 198 million parcels, once more driven by international marketplaces and mainly in the two-door segment. Revenue grew faster than volume, up 13% to 1.9 billion Polizlotti, reflecting a positive price effect on APMs, slightly offset by Volumix. On profitability, Q2 adjusted EBITDA grew 4% to 864 million Polizlotti, with margin remaining at a healthy 45.3%. The decrease versus a year ago reflects a high base period, product mix changes and a continued investment in new projects. In our Eurozone markets, Q2 2026 volume grew 30%, breaking the barrier of 100 million parcels, once again outpacing the e-commerce market and driven by strong B2C performance, up 30% and continued APM adoption. Revenue grew even faster, up 38%, driven by pricing in out-of-home and a growing share of to-door volume. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 40% to 203 million Polis Lotti, with margin essentially flat year-on-year at 16.6%, as scale benefits and disciplined SG&A management were partially offset by the dilutive impact of a growing two-door service in the mix. In the UK, the picture reflects the ongoing parcel transformation. Volume increased by 16% to 82 million parcels, driven by B2C, up 27%, and continued APM adoption, up 29% year-on-year. Parcel revenue grew slower than volume, due to a decline in revenue per parcel and mix effect. Including the new straight business, total UK and Ireland revenue grew by 10% to 1 billion 48 million Polish lotting. Adjusted EBITDA came in at 29 million Polish lotting, with margin down from 5.1% to 2.8% as a result of our restructuring efforts. That said, EBITDA improved meaningfully versus Q1 when we had a loss of 49 million polyslotting. This shows the transformation is progressing even as the year-on-year comparison remains negative. Next space, please. On this slide, you can see the bridge between adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit for the first half of the year. Half-unadjusted EBITDA was essentially flat year-on-year, with margin decreasing to 24.2%. Below that line, depreciation and amortization increased meaningfully. IFRS 16 amortization alone was up 38%, mainly reflecting the yodel consolidation, network scale-up, and continued automation of operations. As a result, adjusted EBIT declined 32% and adjusted net profit declined faster than adjusted EBIT on the back of higher financial costs and higher tax. Let's move on to free cash flow bridge. For half one 2026, Poland generated 611 million Polish lottie of free cash flow, down 6% year on year as continued investment in expansion capex in Poland weighed on an otherwise strong operating cash performance. As always, this domestic cash flow got reinvested into our international operations, network scale-up, operations capex, and integration spend. After incorporating international adjusted EBITDA, capex, working capital movements, and group costs, group free cash flow was negative at 541 million poli sloti, compared with a small positive 54 million Polish Lottie a year ago. This development reflects the scale and the speed of our ongoing international investments. To conclude the financial highlight section, let me briefly address net debt and leverage. At the end of June 2026, gross debt increased to 10.7 billion Polish Lottie, driven by higher borrowings and lease liabilities as we continue to scale the network. cash position decreased to 613 million polish lottie reflecting the negative free cash flow generated in the first half as a result net debt rose to 10.1 billion polish lottie and with adjusted EBITDA broadly flat on the last 12 months basis net leverage increased to 2.5 times from 2.2 times at the end of 2025 now let me walk you through our revised outlook for full year 2026 and our latest view on q3 trading we are revising our full year outlook on volume adjusted ebitda growth capex spend and net leverage we expect group volume growth in the mid-teens this should come from mid single digit volume growth in poland high 20s growth in the eurozone and low 30s growth in the uk group revenue is expected to grow in the mid-teens On profitability, we now expect group-adjusted EBITDA to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage, with margin around the mid-20s. Poland in the low to mid-40s, a continued slight improvement in the Eurozone, and the UK margin roughly stable year-on-year, given the phasing of the transformation. On the network, we plan to deploy around 19,000 new APMs across all markets, about 3,000 in Poland, 11,000 in the Eurozone and 5,000 in the UK. We expect CAPEX of around 2.1 billion Polish lotting, with roughly 60% allocated to APM production and deployment. Given the higher CAPEX and lower adjusted EBITDA, we expect negative free cash flow at year-end in a net leverage ratio to increase versus last year. Now looking ahead to Q3. At the group level for Q3 2026, we anticipate year-on-year volume growth in the low single-digit percentage range. In Poland, we expect flat volume dynamics, mainly reflecting the impact of changes to EU customs fees on international marketplace volumes. Internationally, we forecast mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in imposed volumes, with growth also here, tempered by changes to EU customs fees in the Eurozone. In the UK, we are comparing to a high base. last thing i want to mention today is that as previously announced fedex and impost have been negotiating an arms links commercial agreement in september impost plans to launch last mile services for fedex in the uk and poland as part of an initial pilot phase pursuant to this agreement and with this let me hand over to the operator for q a ladies and gentlemen if you wish to ask a question at this time, please signal by pressing star one.

You may also submit your questions via the webcast. Again, it is star one to ask a question over the phone. I will pause for just a moment to allow you to signal. Once again, it is star one to ask a question over the phone. And our first question is from Hank Slotblum from The Idea. Please go ahead.

Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions, and thanks for the presentation. Quick question. The minimus rule abolishment by the EU. This morning I saw an article on Euro News that Chinese volumes were down 30 to 40 percent. Is that a figure you recognize through the markets in which you operate? And as far as Poland is concerned, does it impact the mix of your business over there? I can imagine that the Chinese parcels generate lower margins, bring lower margins than the rest. And as far as I understood it, you've always said that especially the Chinese goods were delivered to door and not in APM. So perhaps you can shed some light on that.

Good morning, Hank. Maybe I can take some of the questions and then, Javier, feel free to comment. I think we said before, typically we don't concentrate heavily in the Chinese business versus the rest of the overall mix. I would concur. I think where we do have Chinese business today, it has had that impact, I think, in those ranges, seem about consistent with what we've seen in certain markets. um obviously as you've also called out actually from a margin point of view in some markets that's actually been beneficial because we've seen strong recovery of local e-commerce to compensate but overall i think we're probably not as impacted in the mix in in the totality of the business than maybe others in this space and clearly in the uk business there's been no impact at all yeah i think if i just uh if add on to that the um the outlook revision on volume is purely driven

by uh by chinese um so there's about what i'd say about two to three percent impact of uh revising chinese on the outlook um which corresponds to the numbers that you're mentioning and as michael said we have initiatives in the markets to compensate for the volume it really depends on where that volume goes to other platforms or to basically b2c that will then see how the mix impacts the margin in q3 q4 okay and about the mix to door uh atms in in poland will that change as well i think rafael is on is traveling but that again same thing depends on where the volume goes to um you know that our b2c penetration in poland is all very strong so that mix will go to probably other platforms and to some b2c but we'll have to see where that volume goes uh to door is also one areas where we've been filling the gap on volume so i think we'll still be pushing some of that volume through deeper to door penetration so we'll see how much of a mix effect we can recover from that we will see some impact on pricing but then on the mix effect with two door we'll have to see how that plans out in q3 yeah this is you know if i may add does that hang one one thing we become more and more uh let's say um first choice vendor for door-to-door not only in the e-commerce consoles but also in b2b process because of the extraordinary quality so this is a very important

very valid line that we are taking over a lot of the door-to-door business from the other vendors specifically from from the international players okay clear thank you thank you it appears there currently no further questions over the phone this i'd like to hand the call over to christina for any webcast questions over to you christina thank you we've got a question from the webcast how much of the q1 h1 international working capital outflow is temporary and reversible in h2 versus structural cash consumption from integrating or scaling yodo and the international

network yeah i'll i'll take that question um i think it's darians right so look if you look at the free cash flow uh for the first half i would roughly say you're going to be half half half of that negative cash flow is really investing uh into network innovation uh to stay ahead of the market so we clearly are on a strategy for making sure we put the difference between us in competition it comes down to apm and out of home usage but also making sure our APMs are well spread around. We have in Q2 a temporary impact of some receivables and payables linked to tax payments in Poland and some longer receivables in France, but we expect that to be recovered in the second half of the year. So I would say half of it is clearly investment territory strategy following our strategy and half of it is temporary.

Thank you very much.

These are all the questions on the webcast, so I'll just hand over for closing remarks to management. look i'll make the i'll make the closing remarks in line with what rafael started with uh it is a strong q2 in terms of development not just in terms of how we develop the business but also because we are living our strategy if i break down the business on the base poland remains strong and stabilizing towards the future eurozone strong volume growth and margin keeping up and UK is clearly recovering at the same time as having a strong base business we are investing we are investing as Rafal said record APM deployments we are developing two-door capabilities across the eurozone but we're also driving new innovation in Poland with initiatives like G20KI or deposit refund system so fundamentally both on the base and on investments it shows that we want to basically have our vision of being the leader in basically finding new solutions for a more customer-centric and a planet-friendly e-commerce and that's on our strategy and our numbers reflect that so thanks for your questions thanks for the call and talk to you next time