good afternoon miguel maya speaking welcome to bcp earnings conference call as usual i will go through the highlights of our performance followed by miguel braganza who will provide further details from a macroeconomic perspective 2025 proved to be a complex year ongoing conflicts and the economic climate shaped by the impact of geopolitical tensions continue to have relevant repercussions on global australia on europe the economy's performance exceeded initial expectations, with the eurozone showing signs of transition from a stagnation to a slow recovery within a framework of controlled prices and a less restrictive monetary policy. Of particular note is the performance of the Portuguese economy, which stood out as one of the most promising. A solid growth, high resilience and unemployment at record lows. The Polish economy recorded robust growth, supported by private consumption and investment, with inflation dropping into target range. In Mozambique, too, inflation is an economy showing signs of recovery from the impact of instability experienced, which worsened the country's public finance and led to reductions in the sovereign debt rating. Demonstrating a level of adaptability to deal with different contexts, the group's consolidated results exceeded the 1 billion euro mark corresponding to a year-on-year increase of 12.4 percent and resulting in a ROE of 14.1 percent an increase of more than 14 percent in earnings per share reflecting the bank's ability to generate value for stakeholders through an active engagement with the business community and households. Strict management of the financial margin and intensive commercial activity supported by a robust balance sheet contributed to an increase of 10.6 percent of net income in portugal surpassing 869 million the total earnings from international operations reached 292 million marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 33 percent mainly driven by bank's million in Poland, which saw its profits rose by 67% to 284 million, further reinforcing the upward trend in this subsidiary's contribution to the group's net income. It should be noted that the charges associated with the FX mortgage loan portfolio, although still relevant, registered a significant decrease of 34%, strengthening our confidence that this risk is on a downward trajectory and does not compromise the growth potential we ambitioned for the Polish market. In Mozambique, BIM net income was below 4 million euros in 2025 due to being heavily affected by provision on exposure to sovereign debt, which this year amounted to 82 million. I would like to emphasize that we have a solid operation with a very robust capital position under the balance sheet quality that is a benchmark in the market. The proven quality of BIM's franchise, combined with signs of economic recovery already visible, together with the restart of large natural gas projects, which will have a significant contribution to economic growth and improvement of public finances, gives confidence that this subsidiary will eventually converge to the targets that we have set for Moçambique in the strategic plan. Our capacity for organic capital generation is reflected in BCP's robust capital position and the relevant earnings distribution to shareholders. We have ratios comfortably above regulatory requirements, with the CE2-1 at 15.9% and total capital at 19.9%. The quality of our retail banking business models, the driving force behind the growth in business volumes, with loans increasing by 7.3% and customer funds growing by 8.6%. Customer funds stood above $111 billion and loans to customers surpassed $62 billion. At the same time, we maintained the trajectory of improving balance sheet quality by reducing non-performing assets with NPE reduced by $222 million throughout 2025. Despite the challenging context in which we operate, we maintain a strict and rigorous risk management of the balance sheet quality, which led us to achieve a cost of risk of 32 basis points, an indicator anchored below the target we set in the strategic plan. The growth of the customer base demonstrates our ability to meet clients' expectations. We exceeded 7.3 million customers at the group level, of which 2.9 in portfolio. The growth rate is even more noticeable at the level of mobile customers, which increased by 9% and stood at 5.4 million at group level, of which 1.9 in Portugal. Mobile customers does represent 74% of our customer base, 66% in Portugal, an important indicator of our digital capabilities. We are, year after year, recognized as the top choice of families and the leading bank for business. Customer-centric innovation results in substantial growth in mobile usage. In 2025, the number of transactions completed through the app increased by 15%, with a notable 54% rise in the number of account openings. We also achieved 13% more sales compared to the previous year, particularly driven by a 49% increase in personal loan sales and a 47% increase in savings solutions sales. These improvements stem from our strategy of targeting investments in technology to address customer requirements and in-house development of specialized skills, enabling us to launch very competitive digital solutions, even when we compare with the neobank's offers. A prime example of this strategy is the digital offering we provide for mortgage products, which stands out as an innovative solution in the market and give us a significant competitive edge. As we have always communicated to the market, in addition to our ongoing commitment to improving the quality of our products, processes, and customer services, both in person and digitally, we have remained extremely rigorous in managing operational efficiency. This is evident in our cost-to-income ratio, which is firmly anchored below 40%. We have a strong focus on value creation, clearly reflecting the level of results achieved, coupled with a very strict approach to capital management. This has led us to announce to the market a proposal to increase our shareholder distribution policy, which will be presented at the next general meeting. Provided that the defined conditions are met and the necessary approvals from the supervisors are obtained, this policy would allow us for the distribution of up to 90% of the annual net income, 50% through dividends and a share buyback program of up to 40%. After the first year of the strategic plan, the results confirm our execution capabilities and allow us to be very confident about the BCP futures. Miguel, the floor is yours.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen. As always we'll be presenting here a short snapshot of our income statement as you've seen in spite of the sharp reduction of interest rates in both the eurozone and poland we were able to increase the net interest income in consolidated terms commissions also growing at the level of 4.3 which means that core income has grown around three percent the operating costs have grown at a faster pace, mainly in Poland, due to wage inflation in the country, as you know, but we were still able to increase the profit before impairment and provisions by around 6% in spite of the very good years in terms of core income that we had and in terms of interest rates that we had in the last years. The reduction of the legal risk charge for CHF in Poland and the other provisions have have made it possible for us to increase the profit before income tax around 17% and the net income after minorities and taxes around 12.4. In terms of the profitability of the group, we would highlight here in page 10 the growth of 2.4% in the NII. This 2.9% was achieved with a very healthy NIM of 2.9%. As you know, in Europe, the name of the Eurozone banks fluctuates between 1.5% and 2% mostly. We were able to present a very resilient name of around 2.1% due to our very prudent hedging policy. This is what made it also possible, together with the volume growth, which was very material in both Portugal and Poland, to grow 0.2% in terms of NII. In Poland, also, we were able to, in spite of the sharp reduction of interest rates, to present a NIM above 4%, which enabled us to achieve a growth of NII of 4.3%. In terms of fees and commissions, also very healthy growth. In Portugal, growing around 5.6%, both explained by banking fees and commissions and market related and market related fees operating other operating income influenced by the reduction in mandatory contributions because this year we have we have recovered due to the the finalization of some legal processes the additional contribution that we made in previous years. So the mandatory contributions in Portugal reduced from 40 million to around 9 million, which explains this positive performance of around 30 million in this line. In Poland, because of the end, this was the first full year where we were totally normalized in terms of payment of bank taxes in Poland and so that we had higher mandatory contributions because exactly of being fully normalized vis-à-vis the year before where we only were around half a year. Operating costs, a strong focus in terms of cost to income. So I would highlight here the ability to maintain a cost to income of 37%. In Portugal, this cost to income around 35%, so broadly constant, 34% to 35%. And this was achieved together with a focus in the reduction of headcount so that we had some additional restructuring costs of around 23 million. In Poland, due to the wage inflation that persists in the country, the costs have increased around 10%, but this is, I would say, the normal in an economy such as Poland. In terms of cost of risk, aligned with the guidance that we have given, around 31 to 32 percent. In Portugal, broadly constant at 31 basis points. In terms of Poland, what we see is a slight growth from 33 to 34 basis points. I would like to highlight that in terms of composition in Poland, we have a higher share of cash loans and still a lower share of corporate loans. We were able to continue to decrease the non-performing exposures, as you see here in page 15, by almost 18%, 23% in Portugal. And the EVA ratio that includes all exposure, so to say, is already at 1.3%. In terms of business activity, very, very healthy in terms of customer funds growing 8.6%, so almost 9%, with already a healthy evolution of the off-balance sheet funds due to the performance of the market. These old balance sheet funds are mainly distribution fees from investment trusts. And the demand deposits and term deposits also growing healthy in the several geographies. In the international operations, growing 13.5%. Loan portfolio, this is also very interesting, growing 7%, of which 9.3% in Portugal. even considering the reduction in NPEs. In Poland, in the beginning of the year, we were more prudent in terms of the Zloty mortgage loan, so we were not growing material in Zloty mortgages. This effect has been more than compensated by a growth of almost 20% in our corporate portfolio, which highlights a change in the business model and mix of the bank as we had envisaged. Liquidity, very healthy liquidity that enables us to keep and to manage the margin of deposits in an adequate way. Morel, in page 21, clearly above the requirement, as you see, both the TRIA and the LRE, we have TRIA, which compares with a ratio of 28.9, And in terms of MRE, almost double, so 12% that compares with a requirement of 6.9. Our funding plan is being executed exactly according to what has been commented to the market. We have issues, an AQ1 in Poland and a senior preferred in Portugal. well these this time exceptionally we will not comment in detail what we have sent to you in terms of the performance of the several geographies to make the our presentation shorter and allow more time for questions and I will go immediately to to the to the part to slide 44 in terms of capital and value generation as you see in page 45 our common equity one ratio with the present distribution policy of 75 being deducted from the pnl stood at 15.9 and our total capital ratio almost at 20 percent at 29.9 incorporating all the effects of crr3 okay um these capital ratios compare very favorably with the requirements uh as of december of last year but also with the the requirements that are already in place since first of january so we see here that we have a very comfortable buffer above the minimum requirements comparing with September our city one ratio is easy is constant in terms of the moving parts of the capital the P&L since September the P&L explains an increase of 57 basis points in our community one as we are distributing 75% of the P&L, this translates into a reduction of this capital generation of 45 basis points. And our credit RWA's, mainly because of the strong growth that we had in the last quarter, decreased by around 34 basis points. I would here like to highlight that this type of P&L capital generation, these 57 basis points, is more or less, between 50 and 60, is more or less aligned with the capital generation that we have in the full year. And in terms of other ways of credit, because of the mix that we had mainly in terms of corporate growth in Poland and of the strong growth in these segments, we had a capital consumption that was slightly above what was the capital consumption for the full year. so for the full year it was around 74 basis points in the last quarters it was 34 basis points so it was somewhat above the i would say the normal rate of rwa consumption we had here other effects mainly linked to minorities and the very important effect here that is a little bit counterintuitive is when the capital requirements of poland go up we reduce the minority deductions the capital requirements in Poland went up by 100 basis points and the the amount of minority deductions in general that we had in Poland and also were reduced and this explains a large part of this effect. This is just the metric that we have presented to until 2028 just to show that we are very clearly above the the business plan that we had presented for 2028 to the market so we are clearly overperforming and i would like here to focus more on these on these metrics i think it's very important to to keep in mind these metrics so that we clearly see an rot on the mid teams and our strong conviction is that this rot of the mid teams is sustainable and we see an eps growth of also in the mid teams and we also think that this eps growth of the mid teams across the business plan is also sustainable so on top of this what we clearly see is that the the growth of book value per share plus dividend per share reaching almost 20 percent so looking forward what we see is that we do we do not see this this year so to say as a one-off we see this year based on a very strong franchise fundamentals to the point that we can envisage that we will most probably overachieve the plan that we presented to you regarding the 28 values. As Mr. Miguel Maia commented, this led us to the conclusion that we are in a situation of being able to propose to our shareholders an increase in the payout limit of the limit instead of the limit being 75% having a limit of around 90%. And to give it more transparency and predictability to the market, we have here presented a schedule so that this limit will be a function of a certain schedule. So we will disclose to the market every quarter what is our capital ratio before deductions, before deductions related to dividends and to share buybacks. By the way, this value today is 17.7%, and we will disclose it to the market, and our limit, instead of being fixed at 75%, we will have a reference limit of 90% if we are above 17.5%, as we are right now. if we are between 16 and 17 and a half we will have a limit of around 80 percent and if we are a limit below 16 percent our limit will be 25 as it was before so in practice this will allow us this will allow you to project with a little bit more of foresight what our our policy will be of course this is subject to regulatory approval and we have sent these requests to the to the supervisors for approval which we expect to obtain in the next month aligned with the period of the approval of the of the AGM of the results of the AGM maybe a little bit later a little bit sooner but our AGM is also for for May beginning of May so we think we are on track for this but of course it is it is in the hands of the of the supervisor right now I will now stop for
Operator
four questions we have here some as you've seen some some you so I'm expecting some questions from your side and and that's it thank you as a reminder to ask a question please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced to withdraw your question please press star one one again once again it's star one one for any question and wait for your name to be announced to withdraw your question please press star one one again please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster this will take a few moments thank you once again please press star one one to ask a question we are now going to proceed with our first question and the questions come from the line of Ignacio Lagi Lopez from BNP Paribas please ask your question thanks very much for the presentation and for taking my questions.
I have two questions. The first one is on capital. You have provided a clearer framework that we value a lot in terms of distributions going forward. I just wanted to get a bit of your thoughts, Miguel, on how the capital generation should, how we should think about organic capital generation in 26, 27, should we expect it to be slightly above the net profit generation due to DTA consumption or any other moving parts that you may think. Linked to that, how do you see RWA growth evolving in 2026? I mean, should we think a similar growth to 2026, sorry, to 2025 except for Basel IV first adoption impact? And the second question is on costs. I mean, you have taken for a couple of years already narrowed some non-recurring costs in Portugal. How should we think about costs going forward and what will be the impact of that? And how should we think on the AI implications in terms of costs? Has been some banks already guiding for cost to incomes in the low 30s in Southern Europe. How should we think about the cost to income of BCP going forward? Thank you.
Thank you very much for your questions. So in terms of capital generation, we expect the moving parts to be more or less aligned with the profit, with the P&L and RWA consumptions. In terms of P&L, before distributions, what we are expecting are levels around 55 to 65 basis points per quarter. So this is, of course, you may have here some quarters that are better, some quarters that are less good. And in terms of RWAs, it's always very difficult to tell. A part of the RWAs will benefit from the DTA consumption because the first impact when we consume DTAs is a reduction of RWAs because these DTAs somehow have a higher RWA weight, mainly the the deferred the deferred the the timing differences um so that we would expect these uh these uh rwas to uh to go to to consume i would say between uh 20 to 25 20 to 25 basis points per quarter if we are able to grow at the speed at which we are able to grow so this is basically in terms of the main moving parts of what we are expecting in terms of costs i mean we have a lot of initiatives in terms of ai we think that the ai will increase the efficiency both at the personal level so the ai will be the new In the past, you had people that typed letters, and now nobody uses somebody to type its emails. So the AI will be something that will be, on one hand, very disseminated for the different people in the organization. And as we train the different people in using AI in their functions, this will improve their productivity and their efficiency. this on one hand on the other hand this for for everybody i would say it's like the using a word processor it's like using excel it's like but we have to make sure that we train people that is we are doing a large investment in this area then there are some processes where we will of course review that we will of course review and that will also increase the efficiency mainly what we are expecting here is some customer-facing processes linked to call centers, to bots, to contact centers, some documentation processes, some fraud prevention processes, etc., etc., etc. But I would say over this time horizon of three years, we are more, I would say, in an investing mood than in a clear mood of reaping the benefits. And what we are trying to do, because it's very easy to make mistakes in this type of circumstances where everything changes so fast, is to try not to under-invest, but also not to over-invest. So our rule of thumb here is to try to use the efficiency gains that we are having as time goes by to invest in AI so that we maintain a reasonable cost-to-income ratio, but that we do not overshoot in terms of cost-to-income ratio in the short term, because this would but use this buffer, so to say, this savings to invest in the future, to invest in AI, so as to maintain this cost to income. As we all know, the cost to income is a ratio that relates cost to income. It's not only costs. So a critical factor here is as banks become more efficient, what part of this efficiency gets passed on to price and to customers? And this is mainly when we speak around three, four years down the road, We think it's very difficult to anticipate. We think that a rule of thumb for us is that in competitive markets, I would say the laggards generate an ROTE that is less than their cost of equity in a steady state. I would say the banks that are normal will earn their cost of equity. the banks that as we tend to believe about ourselves that are over-performers will earn more than their cost of equity so we we expect to earn more than our cost of equity of course on a cyclical basis but not extremely more than our cost of equity because i mean we don't own a monopoly we are in a competitive market the prices are there but i would i would here say that a bank that clearly is focused on being on the top league in everything also in ai will probably be earning as i was commenting uh an average uh roe on them on the need to high teams that's that's the way we see it in the short term probably we are not expecting a very strong drop in in in cost to income or in roe because we will be using these uh these these buffers so to say to invest for the future to assure that our franchise is totally sustainable thank you very much we are now going to proceed with our next question and the question comes up from the line of alvaro fernandez from
Operator
UBS. Please ask your question.
Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. First, you mentioned in the last conference call that you expected NII in Portugal to grow mid-single digit both in 26 and 27. But, you know, given that volume dynamics continue quite strong, do you feel that there's upside to that guidance? So basically your latest view here. And second, how you're thinking about operating JAWS, both in Portugal and Poland, for the next couple of years, so for 26 and 27. So what level of revenue growth and cost inflation you see in both units? Thanks. Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you very much for your questions. In terms of NII guidance, I would say I'm somewhat more optimistic now. I think things have evolved favorably. Now than what I was three months ago so three months ago probably the guidance that we were giving is was mid single digit in terms of the several lines of the income statement including the NII based on the information that we have today and of course in spite of us not being too exposed to interest rates there is always some exposure and as you know three months ago the futures of interest rates pointed to uh uh the the interest rate coming down to 175 and then going up and now what we are seeing is that the very flat uh uribe at around two percent i would say that uh uh the the risks of nii uh growth of mid single digits today are more tilted to the upside than to to being higher than this than lower than this uh i think this is important to say so this In terms of Portugal, as I was commenting, our objective right now is to use the excess operating leverage benefits, so to say, to invest for the future. So this means that we will be growing costs more or less aligned with revenues, so as to maintain this very healthy cost-to-income that we have right now. In terms of Poland, as you know, the interest rates in Poland are in somewhat of another cycle than in the Eurozone. In the Eurozone, the interest rates have already stabilized. In Poland, the cycle has not yet reached its bottom. What we expect is to have over the full year, this year, a flattish NII. uh in spite of volume growth and then progressively uh to grow uh to to start to start growing starting uh on 27 and and and more on the on 28 what we see over the long term for poland as we all know is that poland has a very low uh ratio of credit to gdp is less than half of the eurozone So the main benefit that we'll have from Poland is once the volumes in Poland start converging to what will occur or what are the levels in Europe. We think that this may be possible, I would say, in the next five years. We don't know exactly when the credit cycle will take off, but we think that sooner or later, in the next three to five years, there will be a convergence moment.
Operator
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Max Mishin from JB Capital. Please ask your question.
Good afternoon. Thanks very much for the presentation and taking our questions. I have three. The first one is on loan book growth in Portugal. It has been stellar in 2025. Can you please tell us what you are doing to gain market share and whether you plan to continue in 2026? The second question would be regarding the guidance for Portugal. You already mentioned the NII, but could you also touch on fees and cost of risk, please, for 2026? And the last one, You mentioned that you may overachieve 2028 targets. Does this mean that you may plan to update us sometime soon?
Starting with your last question, the updating is exactly what I'm doing now. So in each conference call, one of the purposes of this conference call is to give you our updated view of what we expect in terms of guidance for the next year. so in each conference call we somehow give or update the guidance that we are that we are giving and for the moment that's what we intend intend to do in terms of and effectively i've i've just done it so in terms of the the loan book in portugal there are here several several facts we have we have been focusing a lot in terms of commercial terms and reviewing our commercial systematic in portugal so as to be even more more proactive in this area mainly in the in the corporate side this is one part the other part is that you cannot forget that we are coming from a period where we have covid first then the issue of of the invasion of ukraine then issues related to supply chains and how this would evolve and more recently issues around the uncertainty surrounding tariffs okay in all of those until i would say one year ago with hindsight but probably we we have been very prudent okay looking now to the future and in spite of the uncertainty in terms of tariffs that just that we know we see the world as somehow more predictable than what we We saw one year ago, not that it is very predictable, but we see, looking forward, please, please, four years ago, there was starting of the war that nobody knew how it would end. One year ago, we did not know whether there would be a major tariff commercial war between Europe and the United States. Right now, the way we see it is that these risks are somehow lower than what we thought some time ago. So we are adjusting our credit appetite to the more, I would say, normalized view that we have now vis-à-vis the view that we had three years ago, when there were moments in which we almost saw that the world was almost, I'm sorry for the expression, falling apart. Fortunately, the world did not fall apart. We do not regret being prudent in these areas because we do not know what would be the counter scenario. But looking forward, what we see is that we feel more comfortable now in taking somewhat more risk, of course, always with prudence, than when the war in Ukraine started or when there was a huge risk of a tariff war. So this is basically what we would expect us to gain our natural market share because BCP is the largest bank in the private sector in Portugal and it's not the largest bank today in loans in Portugal in the private sector. So we ought to come back to our natural place, so to say. The cost of risk, the way we see it is that the cost of risk that we see right now in Portugal is that this cost of risk absent a major recession in Europe, that is not our base case. We think this cost of risk is reasonably sustainable. This cost of risk between 30 and 40 basis points is clearly sustainable. In Poland, as we diversify our book more from mortgages in Zlotys to corporates, the cost of risk will increase to a more normal cost of risk for banks that have an SME franchise.
Operator
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the question comes from the line of Francisco Riquel from Alantara. Please ask your question.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I want to elaborate on NII. First, you have disclosed in the appendix data about your interest rate hedging strategy regarding bonds, derivatives, and the yield. And I wonder if you can comment on your strategy going forward regarding the size of the hedges that you plan to roll over, duration, potential reinvestment rates that we should expect, and comment on the potential tailwinds to NII in 26 and 27, if any, from this hedging strategy. And second is related to this. You mentioned upside risk to the mid-single-digit growth guidance in NII. So I wonder what is driving this upside risk, if it is because of volumes. Loans are stronger than expected, but I also see demand deposits growing in a healthy way or if it is related to the non-customer spread, if you can please elaborate.
Thank you very much for your questions. Starting with the last question, the main impact is volumes and mix. So we do expect the volumes to grow and we expect to grow somewhat more in the corporate and SME than what we have grown this year. And that's why we think that we will be able to grow around in the mid-single-digit area in Portugal. By the way, if we grow between mid- and high-single-digit in Portugal, And if we have our NII hatched, this will be the impact in terms of NII. In terms of the new slide that we have here provided, in page 54, or 57, I'm sorry. What you see in page 57 is that in 2026, and by the way, in 2025 it was similar, we have a fixed rate book of around 13 30.4 billion euros which has an average interest rate of 2.3 percent this year okay um this has a lot of of products here it has basically swaps and it has uh it has also uh uh unhedged bonds we have some bonds with asset swaps and others without asset swaps looking forward for a constant balance sheet so to say these hedges I'm sorry these hedges the interest rate risk that we have in our book so this is the demand deposits and the beta of the term deposits so that's the way we have to look at it so probably these value will grow that the 30.4 billion will grow with demand deposits and 50% of the term deposits. This is how the total will grow, the total. The gap that we have, for instance, in 27, vis-à-vis the 30 billion that we have in 26, we will reinvest, so to say, we will reinvest, or we will invest either in swaps or in in bonds typically as a rule of thumb our investment is in the four to five year area because the our behavioral our behavioral models in terms of demand deposits points to interest rate sensitivity concentrated on the four to five year area so the way you you you should look at this is that every year we will probably have a book of unhedged bonds and swaps fixed rate swaps that will be in disorder of magnitude and the difference between this rate and the market and we will be reinvesting at the rate that at the time would be the difference between this rate and the market rates more or less at the four to five year area as you see here We are quite hedged right now because if we were to invest right now in the four-year area, let's say, in the four-year area, the four-year swaps right now are at 233. so this means that if we reinvest in 27 the gap between 24 billion and 30 billion at 233 this will more or less yield the same in 27 as the ones that we are yielding into in 2026 that is at 2.3 of course if we invest at at in five years we are investing at 2.4 but what i wanted here the the main message of this slide is to tell you that we have a book right now that is more or less aligned with the rights in the market if the rates in the market don't change substantially this will smooth very much our nii and this will allow us to continue to have a very low risk nii for instance if you compare the evolution of the nii in portugal uh of our bank with the banks that have already presented the results, and I think today there was another bank presenting the results, our competitors have had a reduction of NII in the two-digit area, and effectively we have increased the NII last year, and this was exactly because of these hedges. But we are very much aligned with the market. That's the main message here. Of course, if you believe that in 2027, the five-year rate will go to 1%, this difference between 24 billion and 30 billion you have to input in your model that the six billion would be invested one percent this is clearly not our scenario and i don't think it's a scenario of anybody reasonable but it's the way it would work thank you thank you thank you we are now going to proceed with our next question and the questions come from the line of Carlos Petrutu from Kasia Bank, BPI.
Operator
Please ask your question.
Hello, good afternoon. A couple of questions from my side as well. So the first one would actually be on the outlook on fees. I think I'm not sure you forgot this question before. Sorry about that. Then on the CT1 ratio, I was also wondering, you mentioned the impact from lower deductions from the increase in the minimum requirements. But do you have a visibility on the impact from the recognition of second half earnings into CD1 ratio? Is that already considered there or that's a pending deduction? And then finally, just sorry, on the cost side, you mentioned growth in line with revenues. So I was basically wondering what type of revenue growth are you seeing for total revenues?
I'm sorry, Carlos, revenues where?
Basically, what type of growth you're expecting for revenues as a whole, because you mentioned before you see costs growing in line with that. And within that, are we talking about recurrent costs or including the non-recurrent items?
Okay, let me comment here. So revenues, I mean, starting with your last question. Revenues, we have a component that is very much franchise-linked unpredictable, that are the fees and the NII, as you know, and another part that is intrinsically unpredictable, that are the trading gains and other non-recurrent parts. The non-recurrent parts, I would like to highlight that this year we had a non-recurrent of a recovery of the additional solidaridad of around 30 million that we will not have in 26. So we had 25, we will not have in 26. We may have other non-recurrent But by definition, something that is a trading gain or is non-recurrent are very difficult to predict. So I would not like to elaborate on this. But in terms of NII and commissions and NII and fees, what would say fees in the mid-single digit area, NII in the mid, I would say in the mid-to-high single digit area, and costs, I would say also in the mid-single digit area in Portugal. So that's the guidance that we think makes sense to give right now. In terms of the income, the ratio that we are presenting at consolidated level, the ratio that we are presenting at consolidated level includes already the second half results at consolidated level for everything.
I was asking about the earnings from Poland because typically you have that minority deduction.
The earnings from Poland at a consolidated level, we are recognizing this. In terms of the impact in minority interest, it's a little bit more complex. We have to see and then we'll comment here. Thank you.
Operator
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Riz Pratash from Autonomous Research. Please ask your question. Hi there.
Thank you for taking my question. The first one is on Mozambique. So, of course, this quarter we saw high loan loss provisions and other provisions. In the past, this was often linked to sovereign debt downgrades, but I think recently we have not seen any downgrades. downgrades. So I wanted to ask you like what specifically drove the IA provisions this quarter and what level of net income contribution do you expect from this, from Mozambique in 2026. Then I have a quick clarification on the RWA growth. If we think about the relationship between long growth and RWA growth in 2026 and going forward, shall we expect the same type of growth for like can you actually improve the your rwa density through some managerial actions and then my last question uh you know actually this is it so these are like my two two main questions thank you okay okay in terms of uh starting with the other way goes in terms of rwa growth uh there are here several several impacts now one is the credit rwa growth and
the credit rwa growth will grow will grow aligned with credit but adjusted for the differences in mix and i would here like to highlight that mainly in poland but not only in portugal also we are pretending to go more in the corporate area that is more other way intensive so this is a negative so so this of course this inflates rwas and this is an important factor another factor that's becoming more and more important is the rwa growth linked to operational risk and the operational risk as you know is linked to right now according to crr is linked to the lines of the income statement so at least the more avenues you have the more rwa for operational risk you have and right now you have a you have a constant so if we are able to increase the nii as we are expecting to increase and the fees and commissions that you're expecting to increase this will translate into a higher other way for otherwise for operational risk i don't like particularly this model but as you know this is the model that that is being implemented so the more the more evidence you have the more other way we have so this impact is also is also it also it also has an impact of course as time goes by we will have here a benefit in terms of um of poland so mainly in terms of that uh of there is also another way associated to the operational risk of the polish mortgages so so that the the provisions in the last three years somehow counts for the RWA's of operational risk in Poland. So as time goes by and we see the sharp reduction that we are seeing of the Swiss franc mortgage charges, we have this benefit. We also have a benefit as time goes by because of the reduction of RWA's of DTA's. As you know, the timing differences have another weight of 250 percent the as we consume these timing differences these reduces so to say the weight of the other ways of timing differences going forward so all in all all in all we would be expecting I would say the other way grows to grow aligned with the great growth because the other effects somehow compensate each other, maybe a little bit less, but not much less. In terms of Mozambique, I mean, Mozambique is a country that has a huge potential. And one year and a half ago, as you know, the country faced social issues that then, of course, had its impact in terms of public finances. But there are right now very important green shoots in terms of international investment. So the sum of international, there are three very important companies that are investing in Mozambique in projects of more than 50 billion euros. So you have Total, the French company that has stopped its investment, it has already said it will come back. you have NE, the Italian company, that is already there and is exploring another source of gas, of natural gas. It has already said that it will restart its process on its second drilling field of natural gas. And now, even with the support and with the new targets of the U.S., you have the largest project that is of ExxonMobil of around $30 billion. dollars that is re-analyzing the project and saying that it will come with a definite decision by mid of the year. So the first ones have already decided. So structurally you are seeing a comeback of the investment in Mozambique of very large projects and this is project that have been that was stalled in the last two years and if you see the opinions from the international organizations, you see that the country is structurally solvent. I think this is important. It's the first message. The second message is that it is a country with difficulties that are normal and that it will have some volatility. But we are there for the long term. So we feel very comfortable that over the cycle, over the long term, we will be earning ROEs comfortably above 20%, clearly. But But with volatility, so there will be some years where we will be close to break even, such as this year, and there will be years where we will be making 30% ROE. Fourth message, we don't have any intergroup funding. So basically, we are very bullish in the country over the long term, but we are also cautious in terms of the risks that we take. and our risk appetite is the capital that we have there. This is also very important also to share with you. Our risk appetite is the capital that we have there and we are prepared to contribute to the takeoff and to the society of the country, but of course with reason. In terms of the provisions, I mean, the bank there has only exposure to sovereign debt in local currency. We have models in terms of this local currency debt. We don't think it makes sense for a country to default in its own currency when it has currency sovereignty. So we are comfortable that, in principle, there will not be a haircut in this debt. but uh we have to we have to calibrate so to say our risk models to to the situation of uh of the country and right now in spite of the fact that economically the situation is better and in terms of future the situation is better right now in terms of of public finances the situation is challenging. We are only exposed in local currency. We feel comfortable with that. We think that in 27 the bank will of course not be in break-even and will be having a better result than in 26, but it will not be the normal year yet. It will not be the normal year yet.
But over the medium term we do think that this is a franchise that will pay off thank you very much actually i remember the question that i wanted to ask the last one i'm really sorry uh after the recent storms and bad weather in in central portugal have you seen like any visible impact on bcp in terms of pnl or or volumes i mean the storms in leiria uh figueira queen but i said yes thank you yes it's i mean it's a drama for many families it It is really this weather situation is, I mean, it's very dramatic.
But the way we see it right now, it is more punctual up until now. So we are not seeing any material negative impacts in terms of credit losses or moratoria or something like that. So up until now, we are not seeing anything like that. We are following it very closely. It is a drama for some families, but we are not seeing yet anything that would affect materially our income this year. Thank you very much.
Operator
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Borja. Amiraz from Citi, please ask a question.
Operator
Hello, Borja, your line is open. You may ask a question. No answer from Borja. We are now going to proceed with the next question.
Operator
And the questions come from Zalanov Miruna Chiria from Jefferies. Please ask your question.
Good afternoon. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I just had a couple, please. Firstly, on Poland, could you share with us your expectations for loan growth in the country in 2026 and how this is split between mortgage growth, which was negative in 25, and then corporate growth? Secondly, a question on AI. There have been some concerns in the market over the last couple of weeks that agentic AI might disrupt the savings market. Could you please share with us your thoughts on this topic and maybe remind us what proportion of your total deposits in Portugal are current accounts and what is the average or the median balance of a Portuguese current account in BCP? And then just regarding to some comments earlier this afternoon made by the governor of the Bank of Portugal, he was saying that the bank is considering creating a new tax on the banking sector to cover supervision costs. I was just curious if you've been involved in any of these discussions and if so, how large do you think this tax could be?
So, starting with the last question, we have, effectively, there was this statement from the governor of the Bank of Portugal saying that they want to impute to the banks a supervision cost. We already have a supervision cost imposed by the ECB, So, of course, our first reaction is that we, I mean, we would like to understand it better because we already have one main supervisor. But in any case, we don't expect it to be material to the point that it will affect materially our income statement. So it's not like really a tax. It's more like a supervisory charge to cover supervisory costs. And we would expect that as most of our supervision is done by the ECB, that the amount that the Bank of Portugal would charge us would be small because it should be proportional to the cost that the Bank of Portugal would have. in terms of of AI and so on so how do we see it so first we take AI very seriously and we understand that the risks to business models of having AI is very how do we see ourselves positioned in this so we are basically our focus our focus to a large extent is in relationship banking and in daily banking so the customers have a full banking relationship with us and effectively what they do is they have their i mean their daily banking account their transfers their debit cards everything they have it with us and we also have a model where uh we also have some some human intervention for, we are not a totally digital bank, so to say. We have also a digital solution, a more digital bank, but we are not totally a digital bank. So, of course, we cannot guarantee totally the future, but we do think that monoligners, the banks that are based on one product, be it consumer credit, be it investments, and so on, may be more disrupted by AI than a bank whose main mission is to be close to the customer in its daily banking operations. So that's the way we see it. Many women speak about the AI disruption models by agentic AI. So that's how we see it. Of course, we want to be a player if we are following it very closely. We also have our AI agents. We are using, we want to be on the forefront also of this area. It's part of the DNA of BCP to be a very innovative bank in everything that has to do with systems and IT. But we have more protected, so to say, also than other banks based on our business model itself. Yes, it is similar to what happened, I would say, 25, 30 years ago with the Internet banking. Some customers would have liked it, others prefer to have this more hybrid approach that we follow. in terms of in terms of loan growth in Poland in consumer loans what we are seeing is that that is a main main product area of bank millennium is that we are now in our natural production so we would expect for next year something similar to what we have had this year. In mortgage, we are expecting a recovery, I would say, in terms of the stock on the low to beat single digits. And in corporate, we are expecting something closer to the high single digits to low double digits. That's what you're seeing in corporations.
Perfect. Thank you very much.
Operator
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Sophie Petersen from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.
Yes, thanks a lot for taking my question. here is the fee from Goldman Sachs. So my first question would be going back to your core equity year one. The core equity year one was almost 16% now with the Q4 numbers. Your target is 13.5%. But you also mentioned that your organic capital generation after kind of RWA growth will be somewhere between 35 to 40 basis points a quarter. I mean, will you ever go down to 13.5% core equity tier one? And would you kind of consider doing M&A or kind of deploy capital in a different way to reach 13.5% core equity tier one target that you have? And then my second question would be on on the mortgage land growth in Portugal it was very strong in 2025 over 11 percent year-on-year in Portugal in Spain you have a lot of competition could you maybe just talk about the Portuguese mortgage market how competitive is that what is that the kind of price thing for mortgages and and how do you see that the competitive dynamics in in this market thank you but starting with the mortgage if I was just commenting I mean
our business model is very much customer focused and it's multi product so the way we look at the mortgage is as a way to to start a long-term relationship with the customer where we have the mortgage but also have the daily banking that allows us to monitor the needs of the customer and the risk of the customer with a very sophisticated triad model that allows us also to cross-sell, that allows us at different life stages to offer the adequate product at different life stages so that we are able to offer an integrated solution where the customer is able to contract a lot of satisfaction of its needs with us instead of shopping around. Because the customer has a lot of products with us, we are able to have a win-win situation in which we offer to the customer really value in each product because we have more products with the customer and he gets more value than if he would have shopped the products in several areas. The mortgage market in Portugal is a competitive market. The front book is between 75 to 85 basis points of production. But you have to consider the insurance, you have to consider the relationships, you have to consider everything that I was commenting and we calculated the NPV of the relationships and of the customers. And what we see is that it makes sense and you see it in the numbers, so to say. In terms of the convergence of our capital ratio, as I have commented, the capital ratio for us is not a target, it is a restriction, so to say. We want to grow. We want to achieve these ROTEs of the new teams that we are commenting to you, subject to, this is a restriction, subject to having more than 13.5% communicating one. So it's not a target, it is a restriction to our main target that is to generate shareholder value through another ROTE. So this is the way we look at it. We expect that as time goes by, exactly through this new policy where we can go up to 90% of the P&L in terms of distribution, that as time goes by, our capital ratio will start to decline and converge to a value above 30.5. When I say above 13.5, it does not mean 13.5. It is above 13.5. Of course, you have to put there probably a 100 basis point buffer above 13.5, but we will get there. We will get there, but we will get there in a healthy way. We will get there by healthily growing business with clients, by having good value of loans, and by distributing more capital to our shareholders than the needs that we have due to the RWA increase. So the RWA will increase more than the retained P&L, and it is through this RWA that will increase more than through the retained P&L that we will get there. In terms of M&A, I mean, M&A for us is not an objective one itself, and effectively the plan that we have presented to the market was a plan of organic growth. Of course, when there are opportunities, we look at them. But we are very, very disciplined. So there was an opportunity in the market, as you know, some months ago. We look at it from the outside in. We reach the conclusion that at least based on our best estimations, it would not probably suit our targets in terms of shareholder value generation, and we did not do it. So we are very disciplined. And to be honest, I'm not seeing any opportunity right now in the markets in which we are in that would clearly generate shareholder value.
Thank you. That's very clear.
Operator
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Cecilia Romero-Reyes from Barclays, please ask your question. Thank you very much, Miguel, for taking my questions. My first one is on other provisions. How much do you expect the other provisions, including the CHF mortgage provisions, to fall over the course of the year? And what are the trends that you're seeing in the effective portfolio and renegotiation supporting this assumption? Then I also wanted to ask, we were expecting a headwind due to the reevaluation and recognition of the fur tax assets following the changes in the Portuguese tax regime. Was this included in capital this quarter, and what was the magnitude, or is that still coming? And then finally, I wanted to ask on costs.
You guided to group costs growing mid-single digit this year. in that course guidance how much should Poland cost grow thank you in terms of all of the CHF costs what we are seeing is clearly a trend of decreasing of inflow a clear decreasing of inflow in terms of of cost of new new cases in the in the courts and more negotiations with the customers. What we are seeing is that this was already the second year in a row where our total costs with Swiss francs have decreased. You have to sum the provisions and the costs that are booked in the trading line. I think it's important. And our decrease this year was our decrease with the total costs of Swiss francs before taxes, before the tax impact was positive, was around 34%. And we expect for 26 to have an even higher decrease, so a much higher decrease than this 34, I would say between 34 and 50%. So that's what we are expecting. And then for the years after, what we expect is to have a natural charge for operational risks and for litigation, but that will be a part of the normal business that will, I mean, include everything that has to do with litigation. But what we expect is that this year, this will be the last year of a really important charge in terms of Swiss francs. In terms of DTAs, effectively, there was a decrease in terms of DTAs and deferred taxes. I'm just checking here. So the decrease from September to December of DTAs, the decrease from September to December of DTAs is around before text loss came forward. So the timing differences, just check here, around 200 million euros of less DTAs that we have in our books, of which around 100 million in terms of guaranteed DTAs. i'm speaking here from september to december and the the remaining around 70 million but of non-guaranteed dta's so this was already translated into the the dta's the relevant dta's for our capital ratio so the impact was already there the the cost in poland i mean Poland has its own inflation costs. We will continue to have an evolution of the costs in Poland that are on the high single digits to the low double-digit area.
Operator
We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Borja Amirez from Citi. Please ask your question.
Hello. Good afternoon. Can you hear?
Oh, perfect. Thank you very much. And sorry for my prior technical issues. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. Firstly, on the NII, I think it's very useful, the disclosure you've provided on slide 57. and I think you're probably one of the banks in southern Europe with the highest level of hedges relative to deposits. So I didn't fully understand the NIA guidance for 20, like in the middle term, 2026, 2027 and 2028. so in Portugal so you're gonna have mid single digit long growth but then you're gonna have a tailwind on the on the on the structural heads linked to the to the to the steep in your course if you could kindly elaborate on that and then my second question would be in on costs if you could kindly provide details on
the on the on the pollution in Portugal in the also into beyond 2026 and would it please I'm sorry just just to make it clear so first in terms of NII what I have commented is that we have a hedged, a quite hedged balance sheet, so that our NII will grow more or less aligned with our volumes, okay? And we are expecting volumes to grow on the mid-single digit area, so our NII will grow in the next years mid-to-high single digits because of the mix effect, okay? So mid-to-high single digits, that's what we are expecting in the next years to occur in terms of of NII. In terms of costs, what I have, I'm sorry, when in page 57, I don't know whether you were there when I was explaining it, the objective of page 57 was not to explain or to communicate that we have a high upside from our hedges. It's basically to say that our hedges are more or less at market level. So if you were to hedge everything now at market level because we have to look at the five-year rate as a substitution for our hedges and our hedges right now are more or less at the level of the five-year rate so if we were to substitute right now our hedges we would more or less be more or less where we are so just to give you this idea so this just confirms that we are aligned with with volume growth and our hedges will will contribute to it okay in terms of costs this mid to high single digit is for 26 but also for 27 and 28 of course the confidence i have in 26 by its own nature because it's more difficult to to anticipate three years than one year are more are safer than the the guidance that we give 428 but in any case but but in any case that's what we are expecting here uh for portugal uh for poland uh the interest rate is still going down so we expect over the over this year to have a flattish a flattish nii on the whole year so there may be some volatility in terms of the quarters, because Poland is growing a lot in terms of volumes, and the impact of the volume growth is felt more towards the end of the year than towards the beginning of the year. But we expect the NII in Poland to be flattish because of the interest rate reduction that will occur in Poland and not in Portugal anymore or in the Eurozone anymore, and then to start growing in the years in the years after in terms of costs the guidance that we gave is that because we are in an extremely competitive cost to income position our objective more than to try to minimize further our cost to income is to prudently invest potential savings that we could have from efficiency and processes to invest in AI, in processes, in innovation, so that we can remain competitive in the future. That's always with the target of having an ROTE in the mid-teams area. So we don't think it makes a lot of sense for a bank such as us, to try to milk the cow, as one would say, based on the BCG metrics right now, because we have a long-term franchise. So, we want to have here the adequate remuneration for our capital, above the cost of capital, and a resilient business model, but we have to make sure that the model continues to be resilient for the long term. so the costs will grow aligned with the income Thank you, we have no further questions at this time so I will hand back to Mr. Miguel Boganza for closing remarks Thank you very much for the time devoted to us I think really we appreciate your effort in trying to understand our equity story and trying to understand our effort of value generation we do think that a franchise such as BCP is in a particularly well suited position for this new future of serving the society and serving the clients in the differentiated way whereas at the same time continuing to generate a remuneration of our capital clearly above the cost of capital and we expect exactly to continue to generate a total shareholder return for our investors and for the market that keeps them as satisfied as they are now. Thank you very much.
