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SFOR 0.4645 GBP +1.31%
SFOR · S4 CAPITAL PLC
0.4645 GBP +0.0060 (+1.31%) At close · Oct 9
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305.30M GBP
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665.86M
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Earnings call · FY2026 Q2

S4 CAPITAL PLC (SFOR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Concluded Aug 5, 2026 Audio replay
Aug 5, 2026 30:13 14 turns
Period
FY2026 Q2
Runtime
30:13
Sources
3 artifacts

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30:13 Audio
Sir Martin Other

Good morning, everybody. This is the first half of 2026 from S4 Capital. I'm actually in New York. Wes is in Las Vegas at an AI conference. Scott is in London with Radhika, our CFO. So we've got five areas to go through. First are the results themselves, which Radhika will just take you back, take you through. Secondly, market momentum from Scott. Whereas we'll talk a little bit about artificial intelligence with a demonstration of what we've been doing. And then I'll finally give a brief summary and outlook and we'll go to Q&A. So with that as background, over to you, Radhika.

Radhika CFO

Thank you, Martin. Good morning, everybody. I will start with the financial headlines for the first half of 2026. Despite global macroeconomic pressures, technology clients and hyperscalers continuing to further prioritise AI investment and ongoing client caution, Discipline Cost Management has delivered a very strong first half operational EBITDA with a significantly improved EBITDA margin. Liquidity focus has also lowered our net debt. Net revenue was £308 million, down 6.2% reported and 4.7% like-for-like. Operational EBITDA was £38 million compared to £20.8 million in the first half of 2025, with a margin of 12.3%, up 600 basis points reported and 710 basis points like-for-like. Adjusted operating profit was £35.2 million and adjusted basic earnings per share was £2.7 versus 0.2 pence in the first half of 2025. The board has approved an inaugural interim dividend of £1.35 per share, 50% of the adjusted basic earnings per share. The company generated 10.4 million in free cash flow and net debt reduced to 66.3 million which is 0.7 times pro forma 12-month operational EBITDA, significantly below the 145.9 million on the 30th of June 2025. The company has now met the reduction of its term loan B target, repurchasing a further 40.1 million euros subject to settlement. This reduces the outstanding term loan B to 249.7 million euros. Moving on to the P&L. Revenue for the period came in at 344 million which is down 4.6% on a reported basis and 3.2% like for like. Net revenue for the period was 308 million down 6.2% reported and 4.7% like for like. This reflects what has been a volatile macroeconomic environment exacerbated by the Middle East conflict in conjunction with technology clients and hyperscalers further prioritising AI investment. In response to these conditions we have continued our disciplined approach to cost management and the first half EBITDA performance reflects the annualised impact of the cost actions taken in the second half of 2025, which primarily focused on non-billable roles and back office efficiencies. Personnel and operating expenses were reduced by 12.6% on a reported basis. The company's aim is to align personnel cost to net revenue ratios more closely to industry averages. As at the half year, this was 72.2% compared to 79.2% for the first half of 2025. At the end of the first half the total number of monks fell to approximately 6,150 which was down 11% compared to this time last year and down 3% compared to December 2025. Looking across our two practices marketing services and technology services my commentary now is all on a like-for-like basis. Marketing services delivered net revenue of $281.9 million, a 4.4% decline, reflecting ongoing caution among technology clients as they continue to further prioritise and increase AI infrastructure over operational marketing budgets. The practice was further impacted by a scope reduction in BMW, which impacted the EMEA region. Technology services generated $26.1 million in net revenue, down 7.4%, similarly impacted by broader macroeconomic headwinds and extended sales cycles. From a regional standpoint, the Americas, which represent 80% of our total net revenue, declined 0.8%. EMEA declined 20.3% and represented 14%, and Asia-Pacific declined 12.5%, representing 5% of our mix. Turning to operational EBITDA by practice, on a like-for-like basis, marketing services delivered 44.1 million, an increase of 72.3% compared to the first half of 2025. EBITDA margins strengthened to 15.6%, up 690 basis points, reflecting decisive headcount actions and continued cost discipline technology services generated 4.4 million up 214.3 percent from the first half last year EBITDA margin strengthened to 16.9 percent and improved by over a thousand basis points underlying the effectiveness of our cost control measures moving on to the debt and balance sheet slide we maintain a strong balance sheet throughout the period with strong liquidity and long-dated maturities. Our M&A obligations are now largely complete. Stronger treasury management and a focus on liquidity reduced period-end net debt to £66.3 million. Leverage closed at 0.7 times net debt over Proforma 12-month operational EBITDA, below our target of 1 times and below our key covenant of 4.5 times. The company met the targeted reduction of its term loan B, repurchasing a further €40.1 million subject to settlement, reducing the outstanding term loan B to €249.7 million. Moving to the cash flow, free cash flow was €10.4 million in the period compared to €16 million in the first half of 2025. The movement was driven by an expected Q1 2026 working capital outflow. This was primarily due to a combination of stronger year-on-year Q4 2025 collections and lower year-on-year Q4 2025 media billings. As collections normalised and trading strengthened, working capital improved in the second quarter. Capital expenditure in the period was £2.7 million, up just under 30% from the first half of 2025. of 2.1 million due to ongoing investments in AI capabilities. Financing costs reduced meaningfully driven by the reduction in our net debt and the average effective interest rate improving by to approximately 5.7% down from 6.1%. Improved cash management increased interest income to 1.9 million and tax paid in the period was higher at 3.8 million driven by utilizations of tax losses in 2025. Restructuring and transformation costs in the period were $5.7 million, primarily $3.9 million due to restructuring costs, and $1.4 million related to our finance transformation programme. Moving on to the net debt bridge, net debt at 31st December was $86.9 million, or $79.6 million at closing June 2026 exchange rates. The company generated $10.4 million of free cash flow during the period. The company repurchased 85.2 million euros of its term loan B at a discount of 4.9 million euros. These movements resulted in a lower closing net debt position of 66.3 million, again representing 0.7 pro forma 12-month operational EBITDA below the targeted leverage of one times. Our capital allocation priorities are maintained from the year-end. We have established a clear capital allocation priorities focusing on delivering shareholder value through first dividends, second targeted debt repurchases and third share buybacks. The board has implemented a 50% dividend payout policy out of adjusted basic earnings per share over the medium term subject to financial targets being met we now move on to guidance 2026 full year like for like net revenue is now expected to be down mid single digits operational EBITDA remains at the current analyst consensus level of 85 million with operational EBITDA margin targeted to increase by 140 basis points year end net debt range has been lowered to 50 to 80 million. In line with our targeted operational EBITDA, we aim to maintain leverage of under one times. The company has repurchased a further 40.1 million euros subject to settlement of the term loan B. This reduces the outstanding term loan B to 249.7 million euros. Our forecast net finance expense has been lowered to 19 to 21 million, excluding the one-off gain on the loan repurchase. The effective tax rate is expected to be 28 to 30 percent. Adjusted basic earnings per share will now be in excess of current analyst consensus. With that, I will hand over to Scott for the market update.

Scott Other

Thank you very much, Radhika. Good morning and thank you everyone for joining the meeting today. I'm going to cover some of the dynamics we're seeing in our wider market and then share some specifics on our client relationships before handing over to Wes for an update and a demo on our artificial intelligence product. As you can see, digital marketing spend continues to increase at significant rates, whilst overall advertising spend is growing at around 5%, meaning analog spend continues to decline. The revenues at the top platforms continue to grow in the high teens, significantly outpacing the market growth. One thing to bear in mind here is that 80% plus of their revenues come from small and medium-sized businesses, and they continue to expand their market share there, so their growth is not necessarily being driven by enterprise client spend. The technology services market continues to have lower growth compared to recent historical double-digit performance. 2025 had just over 5% growth, and whilst enterprises continue to invest in areas such as cloud and AI, the outlook for 26 continues to be subdued. The next slide charts the comparison between agency and revenue growth at the main public holding companies and advertising spend and GDP growth. Digital spend now represents around 70% of the total, and as I mentioned on the previous slide, it's growing at high single-digit rates, meaning analog is in decline. Agency growth dipped to almost 0% in 2025 and has decoupled from advertising spend and GDP growth. One explanation for this is the continued pressure from clients to maintain their media spend, but to put pressure on what they call non-working spend, i.e. agency spend. This is particularly the case with technology clients. And the next slide looks at the relationship between CapEx spend and sales and marketing spend at the major tech companies, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet. As you know, historically, almost half our revenue has come from this sector. Prior to 2022, marketing spend at the top platforms regularly grew at 20% annual rates and has now essentially been flat since then. On the other hand, capex spend, particularly on AI and infrastructure, has ballooned in the same period, growing over 140%. And this trend is expected to continue, with the hyperscalers already announcing plans to increase their capex spend almost 90% in 2026, and some of them committing to similar increases in 2027 already. The tech companies are unsurprisingly leading the charge on adopting AI in their marketing workflows and leveraging it to achieve more for the same or less. We continue to have a very compelling client list with some of the world's leading and most innovative companies. Eight of them are what we call whoppers, and that's revenues of $20 million plus, which continues to be a differentiator for a company of our scale. As you can see, we continue to be skewed towards the tech industry with around 42% of our revenues coming from technology. These are strong relationships that help us attract and retain talent to work on them. Spends per client are slightly down but essentially stabilizing versus the previous year across our top 10, 20, and 50 client cohorts. And the focus now is very much on returning all of them to growth. With that, I'll hand you over to Wes for an update on our artificial intelligence approach. Thanks.

Wes Other

Thank you, Scott. And hi, everyone. AI update. The last update we did was very much focused on the work, and I'll start with a little bit of work today as well. We had this up and running in Cannes about a month and a half ago for Google, one of our clients at Google Beach. Very fun use of their Gemini Omni video model, which honestly is pretty amazing for this type of personalization. This is not my actual outfit in Vegas. This is all AI related. What I'm going to do today is talk a little bit about our discussions in Cannes. Cannes is one of the two big moments we have every year to put a little bit of a stake in the ground. The other one being CES. And if we go to the next slide, our focus really was how does the technology help clients win the race to relevance? I think we showed last time when we showed a bunch of work that efficiency is table stakes. Efficiency is mostly down to vision and decision making. I think what is more interesting is how does the technology help clients generate more demand, capture that demand, grow their business, grow their brand. And to do that well, we have to move away from thinking about an ad and more moving towards what we call system thinking. The system thinking part is something that we've been moving out with clients over the last six to nine months. And if we go to the next slide, we started building it into our go-to-market earlier in the year. I'm not sure if people on the call know Adforms as an organization. Global organization that brings pitch consultants together to visit agencies in a specific region. They'll visit 30 to 35 agencies, score those agencies on the relevance, relevance to the market, relevance to their clients, relevance to the RFPs that they see in their pipeline. We did that in May. Monks ended up being scored the number one most relevant agency. This was, I think, quite an interesting takeaway quote, meaningfully ahead of our competitive set. We're, of course, seeing that play out in some of our pipeline already. These are very connected folks that have quite a meaningful impact on pipeline in general it's also sometimes a little uncomfortable to be ahead we do believe in the current landscape it's important to be close to the edge of what's happening because that edge is moving more and more quickly and I think our ability to stay close to that edge helps us understand how the technology evolves how it dissipates into marketing and what that means for marketing organizations which are our clients so that's a little bit of framing if we go to the next slide the way we think about growth uh is through two lenses one we need to do work that is loved by humans uh that's traditionally how we've thought about advertising marketing creative i think the way uh people currently interact and interface with content is very different five years ago, 10 years ago, people are spending an inordinate amount of time on their phones. I think it's about 13 hours a day. And a lot of that time is spent scrolling. So more and more to be loved by humans, we have to be part of that constrained environment. We have to be part of these micro cycles of attention. And then we need to do work that is preferred by machines. Some of that is about algorithmic media, where there's a massive preference for volume, variation, variety, velocity, all of the Vs, and of course more and more how do LLMs and agents sort of surface brands within the sort of agentic ecosystem. So that was our main focus during PAN and with that I'm going to hand it back to Sir Martin.

Sir Martin Other

Thanks Wes. So finally a summary Summary and outlook. First half net revenue was down 6.2% reported and 4.7% life flight. And that reflected the continuing macroeconomic uncertainty heightened by the Middle East conflict and combined with technology clients and a hyperscalist prioritizing AI investment. I think, as we say in our release, the top four hyperscalers are spending about $5 trillion on capital investment between 2025 and 2030. A reported record operational EBITDA of 38 million, almost 83% and 128% reported and 128% like the like, with a higher proportion of operational EBITDA in the first half compared to previous years based on the 2026 four-year target, but a stronger second half is anticipated from a bottom-line point of view. EBITDA margin in the first half at 12.3%, up 600 basis points reported, and 710 basis points like for like. Number of monks down 3% to around just over 6,000 people, compared with 6,350 December 2035 and 6,900 in June of 25 last year. Half-year net debt at just over $66 million, which represents a leverage of 0.7 times EBITDA, down from $146 million, which was a leverage of two times, which was reported last year at 30th of June. Full-year like-for-like net revenue expected to be down mid-single digits, and full-year EBITDA remains at current analyst consensus level of $85 million. with the margin to increase by 140 basis points. New business wins from LVMH, from Mercado Libre, Capital One, Revlon, Square Seek, Watts, and Air India. The targeted net debt range for 2026 has been lowered from 50 to 80 million. It's lowered to 50 to 80 million, from 60 to 90 million. And we aim for leverage to be maintained under one times, operationally a bit dark. The board's implemented a 50% dividend payout policy out of adjusted basic earnings per share, subject to our financial targets being met. And we'll recommend a final dividend for 2026 in line with that policy. The final dividend for 2025 of 1.1p was paid in July. And the board has improved a first-time in overall interim dividend for 2026 at 1.35p per share. 50% – that represents 50% of the adjusted basics earnings per share of 2.7p. The company has met the targeted €125 million reduction of its term loan B, and has therefore reduced the outstanding balance of that term loan B to just under €250 million. We continue to see significant opportunities for new business, particularly driven by our iTools and capabilities, as Wes has just outlined, particularly in relation to the work for SC Johnson. And adopting from existing clients is ramping up as clients driven by existential threats in automotive, in the automotive category, and vertical, in financial services, and FMCG, fast-moving consumer goods, moved from pilots to fully scaled adoption and our proprietary AI solutions that are at the heart of all of our new business efforts. We remain confident in our talents, in our business model, in our strategy, in our scaled client relationships, which position us to deliver sustainable long-term growth. So with that, Laura, as operator, we can turn to Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, for analysts wishing to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for a brief moment. Thank you. We will now take our first question from Andy Renton of Cavendish. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Andy Renton Analyst — Cavendish

Thanks all for a really good presentation there. Just a couple from me. First, can you just expand a little bit on the predicted higher margins now and where those higher margins are going to come from? And then just on the AI side, it'd be good to understand what you think AI will be able in the future that you didn't think it could do six months ago.

Sir Martin Other

All right, so, Renika, do you want to deal with a margin point? Maybe Wes, you can respond on what AI enables us to do that we couldn't do a few months ago. So, Renika, margins.

Radhika CFO

So, our margins, so the first half, as we said, was driven by really the annualised cost-out impact of what we did at the back end of 2025. so we continue with our cost focus really um looking at our cost base in relation to our net revenue so for the second half as well that's where we've got that full year impact and that's why we've increased it to by 140 basis points so it's the full full year impact of what we did at the back end of last year and our continued cost management through the year okay uh wes do you Do you want to talk a little bit about where they are going to know what the rest of the day?

Wes Other

I mean, we've, I think, always been quite clear about where we were expecting this to head. And I think that that's been relatively consistent from our perspective. I think it's probably still surprising to look at the length that agents can now work without supervision, which allows us to do much more real-time work without human supervision because the concept of hallucinations has pretty much gone away and agents are just very good at long-form work and holding context. So the length of unsupervised agentic workflows, even though you could sort of predict it based on the line goes up, I think it's still quite surprising and see where that's already at.

Sir Martin Other

Yeah, I just... Do you want to add anything to that, Rose? No. So I would just say a couple of things in relation to that. Firstly is the resistance to using synthetic material, AI-driven material. I think both from clients and from consumers, I think will decline. I mean, the interesting thing to me about, well, I think to us about AI is that consumer adoption is moving faster than client or enterprise adoption. Now, that's nothing new. I think we saw that with smartphones, mobile phones and smartphones, and with previous technological revolutions. But, you know, whilst the industry and our clients indeed agonize over every pixel, I'm not sure that consumers do. And increasingly, I think they will become ambivalent or neutral and maybe even positive about content, which is synthetic. The other thing I would say is that we're going through, I think this is the seventh quarter of double-digit EPS growth and finished Q2 for the S&P 500. So we're going through, despite all the volatility, from an earnings growth point of view, we're seeing companies perform extremely well, Even excluding the hyperscalers and tech giants, EPS growth is very strong. Usually that converts into strong advertising growth. But as Scott said, we've seen a breakdown of the correlation between agency revenue growth and GDP growth and profit growth from the companies. And that's, we think, principally driven by the tech hyperscalers switch to capital investment versus OPEX. That change takes place when there are existential threats like autos on Chinese EVs, OVs, financial services when fintech platforms start to shape traditional banking structures. And with FMCGs, when pricing is more difficult to get, having increased prices during COVID or post-COVID, can't do it anymore, consumer resistance to do that, and geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East in particular disrupt supply chains. So companies are becoming more focused on efficiency. I mean, for example, the P&G CEO yesterday, LCMV, Sue, was talking about the need to move to content at scale. So when you see clients under a little bit of pressure, and we may start to see that perhaps in the second half of the year as growth maybe slows globally, inflation is a little bit more persistent and interest rates tick up a bit if they do, we may see adoption moving quicker. So I think another thing that's going to happen is that we will see more whole-scale adoption to gain the efficiency that we're talking about as maybe economic conditions tighten a bit.

Andy Renton Analyst — Cavendish

Thank you. Really interesting.

Operator

Thank you.

Sir Martin Other

With no further questions from analysts, I would like to hand it back to sir martin for closing remarks thank you all right thanks everybody for joining us uh we'll be back to you when is it radica we're going to be a little bit earlier this year on q3 when will that be um september okay early september we'll react to you with q3 october sorry october we will be very very quick to do it in september so it'll be early early in october all right Thank you very much.

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