OKEA ASA (OKEA) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Good morning and welcome to the presentation of the first quarter results for UKEA in 2026. My name is Sven Licknes, I'm the CEO of the company and as always I'm joined by Birte Nurheim, our CFO, who will take you through the financing afterwards. There is a link on our home page that you can use to actually ask questions because there will be a Q&A session after our presentation and after the summary. What has been the most significant achievements in the first quarter has been very high production efficiency and very strong production in the quarter. This has been a quarter with high uncertainty, obviously, and chaos in the world and the market. So I'm glad to see that we have been able to keep stable operations throughout the period and also very stable performance in our projects. Our production efficiency is actually at 96% during the quarter, which is divided by all our assets. So both operated and partner operated assets has performed extremely well. We started a new well, the Taliske East well on Brage in the quarter that increased the production of Brage by 60% which is a good illustration of how important these new wells is for Brage and I'm also very glad to see that we are able to actually drill them out and also put them in production. In addition we increased the resources on the Taliske West discovery that we had last year and we have now increased it with nine million barrels of oil in this quarter which means that we have a break even now less than $10 per barrel and we are expecting first oil in 2027 and these barrels will be drilled with the existing drilling rig on Brage. We have also due to the increased forward prices seen reversal of impairments on Startfjord so all in all this has resulted in a very strong quarter also financially for the company which we will get back to shortly. Things to note here is that the production volumes in this quarter actually is higher than what we have achieved each quarter last year so we are back on and keeping the plateau and we will also increase production into next year something that Birte will get back to later on when we are talking about guiding but the lower part of this illustration as well shows the very high production efficiency we have seen on the assets we are now moving into a period in the second quarter where we are seeing plan maintenance and turnarounds on some of our assets being start for Bravo but also the Brage field but the first quarter have been extremely high on production efficiency. On an operational side an operational update as I mentioned we started the Talisker Eastwell in January bringing Brage production up to the highest level actually since 2012 for that platform. Brage produced around 7,000 gross when we took over and I will get back to more details afterwards but we have significantly increased production on Brage and are still doing it. We also completed the drilling of the Garnwest South well on Drøgen. We delivered Hasselmuss as a tie-in two three years ago and we have done the same now with Garnwest South which is a prospect that we actually have drilled into Drøgen. We have seen some commissioning challenges on the Christmas tree that you actually can see on the slide here and there is two valves on that tree that we need to rectify so the production will start in Q3 rather than in the second quarter as previously planned. Our projects both when it comes to Bessla and the power from shore is going good. We have actually pulled in the Bessla flowline into Bragona which is one of the critical activities and we are now continuing to lay the pipeline to the template of Bessla. Going back to the slides on our assets. This is really value creation in practice. As you can see on the curve here, compared to what we presented last time, we have continued to increase the production on Brage. So we are now around 28,000 in the quarter for Brage. This is, as I have mentioned, the Taluska Ease production well that we put on stream in January 2026, which is producing above plan and is continuing to produce very well. Also, the wells that we started at the tail end of last year is also producing higher than expected so the production of Brage is actually quite stable. We are still pushing the technical limits and we are now upgrading and refurbishing the drilling unit on Brage as we do not have any drilling this year but that is also to prepare the rig for drilling the Talisker Discovery when we get the drilling rig assembled early next year. And we have unlocked Talisker West resources so we have now break-even price as I mentioned below $10 per barrel for that field or that discovery that will be produced over Brage already in 2027. So very quick barrels and very cost-efficient barrels which becomes even better when we are increasing these resources. We're doing the same on Drøgen. We have stabilized the production on Drøgen, increased it and then stabilized it. We're also learning from Brage as a bigger organization now. So the Garnwest South drilling that we have performed on Draugen is actually the longest well and also the steepest well that we actually have drilled on the Draugen asset, which shows that we are learning across the organization. We are then expecting production, as I have mentioned, from the Garnwest South in third quarter of 2026. So there's no lost production associated with the commissioning issues. It's just a deferred production that will then start a little bit later on. The power from shore project is also progressing according to plan and the onshore facility is now more or less completed and is ready for startup in the second half of this year as we are electrifying the new asset. So going back to the Telesco West estimate that we have increased, this is obviously something that is happening through evaluation and understanding of the reservoir from Discovery and until this point. So we are then increasing the estimate of the start fuel formation in this Discovery by 47%. So the total now then is around 34 million barrels of oil in the overall discovery in the telescope. This is a very fast-track development. We will start drilling it early 27 and expect to have it in production late 27. So very robust economics. We do have a proven host platform and we do have all the facilities that is actually needed to put this into the market quite quickly. And also then to the Mistral discovery and the divestment of the Mistral discovery. This was a discovery made last year, and we have evaluated the discovery for a year. And this is also demonstrating that exploration creates value in several phases of the discovery. We are strengthening our balance sheet by divesting the menstrual discovery and also focusing more on our core assets again. So there's a fixed consideration of 30 million, and we do expect a positive net profit of the tax of $25 million when this is closed in Q3 this year. There's also an upside and a contingent consideration if there should be a discovery in the Mistral Northwell, which is planned for the first quarter of next year. So that depends to see how that actually goes. We are very happy to actually be able to generate value also through exploration, even though we are not seeing first oil on this asset. So with that, I will hand over to Birthe for the financials. I will get back again with a short summary afterwards before we then dive into the Q&A session. So with that, I will hand over to you, Birthe.

Thank you, Svein. This first quarter of 2026 was characterized by strong production performance and increased market prices. Following the start of the war in the Middle East, market prices have been highly volatile, but at a higher level than what we have seen over the last year. Average forward prices for the remainder of 2026 have increased by roughly 90% for gas and 60% for crude during the quarter. The increase in prices result in higher revenues and a reversal of previous impairments on Stadfjord. It also results in unrealized losses on our hedged position. I will address all of these matters, but first let's start with production and sales as usual. Production volumes of 34.9 thousand barrels per day represents an increase of 13 percent. And this was due to the startup of the Thalesker East production well at Brage, as well as the high production efficiency. Following the large underlift in the previous quarter, we overlifted 4.2 thousand barrels per day in the current quarter. And overall, we sold 39.1 thousand barrels per day. The realized liquids price increased by 42 percent from 52.4 to 74.2 dollars. This was partly a result of the increased prices in March, but also due to the more normalized mix of crude and NGLs sold. As you may recall, the share of NGLs was unusually high in the previous quarter due to the underlift of crude. Average market prices for gas increased by 33%, from 57.4% to 76.5%. And overall, this results in total petroleum revenue of $264 million and more than a doubling compared to previous quarter. As we have seen, the increase in oil and gas prices had a positive impact on revenues. As you may already have seen in the financial income statement, it also resulted in a loss on our hedged positions of $29 million, which is recognized as a negative other operating income. The loss is unrealized and reflect the mark-to-market valuation of the hedging portfolio at balance sheet date. The graph illustrates the current hedge positions as a percentage of our post-tax exposure. And as you can see, we have the largest positions in the coming two quarters before the relative hedging share is reduced in the subsequent two quarters. We currently do not have any hedged positions beyond the next 12-month period. The hedged positions are color-based, which provides a downside protection with certain limits on upsides. And for crude, which constitutes the majority of the loss for the quarter, the floors are between $60 to $70 per barrel, and the ceilings are between $75 and $122, with the highest ranges in the near term. For gas, the floors are between $57 and $98 per barrel equivalent, and the ceilings are between $105 and $298, with the highest ranges in the later quarters. Over to the profit and loss statement. We deliver operating income of $239 million, comprising the petroleum revenue of $264 million and a negative other operating income of 25 million. The other operating income mainly relates to the unrealized hedging losses and is partly offset by tariff income at Jøa and Stadfjord. Production expenses remain somewhat high at $91 million, which is mainly due to an intervention campaign on Draugen and preparations for maintenance shutdowns to take place in the second quarter on both Brage and Stadfjord B. Due to high production, the cost per barrel was reduced to $26.7. Reversal of previous impairments amounted to $154 million. The reversal relates to stat fuel and was a result of the higher forward prices. Net financial items amounted to an income of $6 million, mainly driven by a net foreign exchange rate gain of 10 million following a strengthening of the Norwegian kroner against the dollars during the quarter. Tax expense amounted to 193 million which brings the net profit to 36 million. So let's move on to the balance sheet. Goodwill of 94 million comprise 78 million in technical goodwill and 17 million in ordinary goodwill. Oil and gas properties increased by $210 million to $886 million, mainly due to the $154 million reversal of impairments on Stadfjord, as well as investments relating to production drilling, as well as progress in the best law and the power from short development projects. Trade and other receivables increased by $58 million to $202 million, mainly due to lifted volumes not paid by the end of the quarter. • Cash and cash equivalents amounted to $210 million, and in addition to the cash balance, $59 million was placed in money market funds, which is classified as other assets. • Interest-bearing bond loans of $295 million comprise the OKEA05 and OKEA06 bonds. • An income tax payable of $70 million consists of $25 million in remaining tax payable for 2025 and accrued taxes for the first quarter of 2026 of 45 million. Asset retirement obligations of 1 billion and 26 million is a pre-tax amount and is partly offset by asset retirement receivables of 477 million. So let's look at the cash development during the quarter. Cash generated from operations amounted to 86 million dollars. The high revenues is not fully reflected in the cash flow due to the increase in trade receivables as mentioned. Taxes paid of $17 million relate to two tax installments for 2025. We used $117 million for investments relating to drilling activities on Draugen and Brage and the development projects from Bessla and Power From Shore. This brings total cash at the end of the quarter to $269 million, of which $59 million was placed in money market funds. And finally, in this financial section, an update on our guidance. We keep our guidance unchanged, leaving production guidance at 31,000 to 35,000 barrels per day for 2026, and as Svein also mentioned, increasing to 37,000 to 41,000 barrels per day for 2027. And as has been mentioned already, we expect some maintenance shutdowns in the second quarter with six weeks at Stadtfjord B and three weeks at Brage, which will impact second quarter production. And this is accounted for in the guiding for the full year. CAPEX guidance remains $300 to $360 million for 2026 and $230 to $290 million for 2027. And as we have stated before, during an anticipated capital intensive period, dividend payments have been temporarily put on hold. Higher market prices, combined with good progress on the BESLA project, which is now nearing completion, as well as closing of the mistral divestment are positive contributors to the company's dividend assessments, and we will revert with a dividend plan when we consider to be in a position to distribute. That's all from me for now, and I'll give the word back to you, Svein, for some closing remarks. Thank you.

Yeah, thank you, Birte. So, in summary, then, for the quarter, high production efficiency and new wells into production. That is what we do, and we have increased production by 13 percent in this quarter. We see further growth in 2C resources and are especially in the Talisker discovery but also along our other assets. We are demonstrating that you can actually realize value from the exploration portfolio at an early stage as well so I believe we have built a very strong exploration team and we have also had successes now with exploration. Our projects is continuing to be developed according to plan both the Bessler floor lines which now has been pulled in which is a very important milestone for the Bessler to be started up early 27 and also for the power from Shure and Drugen which is progressing according to plan and then net income of 36 million in the quarter and total cash of 269. Again this is a very robust platform for further value creation for the company and I believe that OKEA is very well positioned in an increasing production profile that we have to actually generate significant value for the future. So with this, we are then moving into the Q&A session and I hope as many as possible will use the link on our homepage and also join us for the Q&A. Thank you very much.

Thank you. We will now start the Q&A session. If you wish to ask a question, please press five star on your telephone keypad. To redraw your questions, you may do so by pressing five star again. There'll be a brief pause while questions are being registered. And the first question will be from the line of John Olaisen from ABG. Please go ahead. Your line will now be unmuted.

Yeah, good morning and congrats with a strong operational Q1. A couple of details on Q1. The issues of the stat fuel assets continue to be a bit negative. I see the hunter well was completed but had low residual pressure and production did not meet expectations. I just wonder, what is the risk of further write-downs of stocks with the technical of the book value, sorry? Maybe you could tell us, gives some indication of the remaining book value of the stocks for your assets. That's my first question, please.

Yeah, thank you for the question, John. I can do some of the operational updates there. As you mentioned, the first well or the oil hunter as we call it didn't come in as expected we still have more oil hunters to be drilled but that will happen in 27 and there is no kind of geological or connection between the results of this first well and the next world obviously we do learning from this first well but what will have most impact on the start road asset is the restart of electrical submersible pumps in the wells we have successfully started three of them now and there is three more to be started prior to the summer, which again will produce more water, drag down the pressure in the reservoir, and get more gas out of the reservoir. So the kind of lack of production from start to have predominantly been the gas part and not the oil part as such.

Yeah, and maybe I can add to the impairment question. So basically, we are holding the asset at fair value, which means that there is a risk of either reversal of the remaining previous impairment or there is a risk of further impairments if the macros or the asset performance changes.

Disappointing oil hunter well does not impact the fair value in your view, Isis?

No. And the results from the first start of the electrical pumps, when will we get it when we see that the the remaining we have a plan for starting the remaining and get the remaining started up by by midsummer so in July I would be able to give some more details on the remaining pumps and the status there is it possible to get it the value of the chapter assets in the balance sheet piece we do not disclose balance sheet values on individual assets but I think

I think what I can add to your question also with the oil hunters is that at balance sheet date or when we disclose a new quarterly report, we take into account everything that we know and expect from the assets. So the disappointing hunter wells have already been accounted for in the impairment testing.

That's good, because as you know, the market is awaiting for dividends from Akeia, and a key restriction as it is now is the maximum 50% of the net profit after tax on a four-quarter rolling basis, and the write-downs would be important in that context. And may I ask, is it possible to give some indication when you expect to have a positive net profit after tax on a four-quarter rolling basis? Are we likely to see that from Q2, or are there anything that impacts the balance sheet that we should be aware of near-term?

I'm not sure if I understood that question, Jon.

The market is expecting dividends, and I realize that you can't pay dividends as long as the accumulated net profit over the last four quarters is negative, which is still the case as of Q1. So I just wonder, I guess with the current oil price, it looks like you're about to have a positive number on that net profit over the last 12 months as of Q2 or Q3 if there are no special effects on the balance sheet, like an impairment, for instance. I just wonder if are there any balance sheet impacts that we should be aware, potential balance sheet impacts over the next one or two quarters that you should be aware of? Could it have impacted your capability of paying dividends?

I think it's a tough question to answer in a sense, but we never expect any major future balance sheet adjustments because then we would have accounted for it, but obviously as we are holding Startfjord at fair value, it is possible, as mentioned that you will see further reversals or a new impairment, especially if the forwards are changing. And as I'm sure you are aware, they are quite volatile at the moment. And you are pointing to a correct fact that we have certain restrictions for distributions under the bonds and are currently not in a position to pay dividends. But as you may have seen, we are softening the wording a bit on dividends because we are seeing several factors that are positive to the visibility of dividends in the not too distant future. And parts of that is driven by market and prices, but others are also driven by own performance and deliveries, both through the sale of Mustral, which will generate $30 million in proceeds when the transaction is closing but also the fact that the best law is progressing well and according to plan for for startup in early 2027 thank you and then a couple of quick housekeeping questions do you expect the negative working capital development that we saw in q1 to be reversed in q2 yeah it's always difficult to guide on working capital because it is a point blank date but obviously the sales that has not been received or the revenue from the sales that has not yet been received by 31st of March will or have already been received in April. But of course, it depends on the exact date of the lifting or an invoice being received from a project. So it's always hard to guide on working capital on a specific quarter.

Yeah. And on the lifting side, do you expect an uplift, overlift or underlift or neutral in Q2? Is it possible to give some indication of that?

Yeah, more or less neutral, I would say, is our expectations, but we are not fully in control of the allocations. So we are still in a somewhat underlift position, which will be recovered in the next few quarters. And I may also just remind you of that we are expecting production to be a bit lower next quarter because of the two of the turnarounds on two different assets in the same quarter.

Is it possible to give some indication of what you expect for cash tax payments in the second half of 26?

Well, we are only guiding on the 2025 payments. And for 2026, I think we should expect that tax payments will increase somewhat, especially based on higher forwards. So it should be somewhat higher than 2025. and we will revert with guiding on it when it's been submitted to the tax authorities.

My last question is regarding CapEx distribution for the remaining of 2026. So it's quite high CapEx in Q1. I wonder how the remaining CapEx for the year will be distributed. Is it more heavily CapEx in Q2 or Q3 or Q4?

Well, we guide on the CapEx for the year and we have not changed the CapEx guidance for the year. So we don't guide because, as mentioned, you know, it depends on when you receive an invoice, whether it will fall in one quarter or another. But you are right. We have taken a big portion of the capex already in Q1.

Thank you very much. That was all for me. Thank you.

Thank you, John.

Thanks, John. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press five star on your telephone keypad. The next question will be from the line of Theodor Svend Nielsen from SB1 Markets. Please go ahead, your line will now be unmuted.

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. A few questions for me. First, could you comment on the realized oil price this far in second quarter, and how that compares to the IC Brent prices? Second question that is on hedging. you explained that you put on some hedges during Q1 here. Could it come to how you view the current oil and gas price levels and whether it's tempting to put on more hedges or not? And my last question there is on the Mistral development process. Was that a bilateral process or was it an open process with several participants?

Thank you, Theodore. I'm to comment on the prices realized in the second quarter I think we will revert to that in in the second quarter reporting but obviously what we are seeing is you know the prices started to increase after the invasion in late February so it's only one third of Q1 that has seen their price hike recognized in the prices. And as you may also recall, we did two of the liftings quite early in the quarter. So as it looks now, we are expecting higher realized prices in the second quarter if what we are seeing now will last throughout the quarter. And if we are tempted to do more hedges, of course, we always look at both our cash outlook and we are looking at the market before we enter into hedges. Coming into the first quarter, we had a more pessimistic outlook than what we are actually experiencing now, which is why we had quite significant hedging positions. Now, I think we are a bit more careful, both because we have significant positions in place at least for the next two quarters and somewhat also in the following two quarters. But I think with the high volatility that we are seeing, we are careful in putting ceilings and would rather assess pure floors and pay a premium for that.

Yeah, and for the Mistral, that was an open process with several bids before we concluded.

Thanks, Tevido. As we have no further questions in the queue, I'll hand it back to the speakers for any written questions.

So we have a question from Martin. The question is the colors you have. If spot oil is priced at $130 and Brent future settles at $100, will you keep that physical premium above the future settlement?

Okay, I can take that. So our hedges are tied to dated Brent and not to future. So if dated Brent exceeds the ceilings, we will not keep that premium above the ceilings.

All right, next question is from Russell from Upstream. Could you update on how many exploration wells planned this year? Also the rationale for the PL 1255 swap. You have a 50% interest, so what is the vision for that permit?

Yeah, thank you for the question. The current plan for exploration this year is one well now, that is Alpehumle, which will be drilled during the summer. The timing if it's going to be Q2 or Q3 obviously depends on the wells is going to drill up front if there is success instead then usually it's also delays but that's a prospect of which we have 20 percent in drilled by arca bp so we are looking forward to that the mistral north well which was planned for q1 obviously now disappears as we are closing that transaction and then another well which is a bit uncertain is the arkenstone which is being discussed it should be drilled in 26 or 27. Arkenstone is obviously a very exciting well further north. So that is the short-term exploration portfolio we have. We also have the Chulling Law which is close to Startfjord which also will be drilled most likely in Q1 next year and it's a tie back to to start Fjord. The second question there on PL 1255. We already had 20% in the license. Actually it was a license where we actually wanted more percentages when we applied for it. So now getting 50% is a strategic move. We still believe in the area. We also believe in the geology in the area and this is a tieback candidate both to Trollfield but also to the UR field. But also now getting 50% and the operators shipped in that permit gives also KR control of the license so we cannot be voted into any decisions or drill decisions that we are not supporting ourselves. So we believe that the strategic position we have there is very good and obviously as we are growing in the license it is because we believe that the license could generate value in the future. And as we have demonstrated with Mistral now, exploration will generate value in several phases if you have a discovery. So it is a good asset of which we were already present in.

Thank you, Svein. We have a question from Morgan. What are the underlying future price assumptions for recently added ceiling hedges on crude moving forward? IRC the ceilings in the last quarter had a ceiling of 85 US dollars per barrel.

Okay well in the previous quarter we we had ranges between 75 and 85 and during this quarter we have added some new positions with prices up to a hundred and twenty two thank you next question for Morgan does the board see any value in considering the reducing debt ahead of schedule such as paying off okay no five zero five earlier should lick should liquidity rise to levels high enough to permit this this is something we always assess so but it's nothing we are commenting on until we actually do it but obviously looking at the capital structure and when things change like for example the macros improving quite significantly over the quarter that's something we are considering thank you as of now there are no additional questions all right okay that seems to be it then so thank you very much for your attendance and also your questions and they're looking forward to speak to you and present again in in July for the second quarter so thank you very much thank you