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Capital Markets Day · 2026-09-21

AYVENS (AYV) September 2026 Capital Markets Day Transcript

Concluded Sep 21, 2026 Audio replay Verified speakers
Sep 21, 2026 1:59:47 47 turns
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Philippe CEO

to all. We are pleased to host you for this Capital Market Day, and I will present our new strategic plan with Patrick and Bernot. This presentation will be divided into three sections. A reminder of our track record in the last three years and of our environment, the presentation of the three pillars of our plan, our financial trajectory, and a brief conclusion. Our clients are at the heart of everything we do. They range from very large international corporations to local businesses and private consumers. While their needs can vary, they share a common expectation. Their trusted fleet partner, Avens, provide them with a hassle-free mobility. It allows them to focus on developing their businesses. Let me now give the floor to three of them. The first testimony is from Siemens. Evans operates for Siemens, a fleet across 29 countries. It highlights the breadth of services and value we provide to large international companies. First, many thanks to them for their testimonies. They provide a powerful reflection of the value we deliver to our clients. They also demonstrate the long-lasting relationship we build with them, which spans on average over 12 years with our large international corporate clients. Our strategic journey over the last three years was built around the simple ambition to create the leading leasing company and fully capture the scale benefits of merging ALD and LeasePlan. The integration involved the execution of IT migrations across 21 countries in a regulated environment. Against that backdrop, we successfully delivered the promised 440 million euros gross synergies annual run rate. It contributed to the decrease of our OPEX base by 320 million euros and the continued improvement in our margins, which are now at around 590 bps. As a result, we're on track to deliver around 26 targets, in particular an underlying cost-income ratio at around 52%, and ROTE in the range of 13% to 15%. Our strategic execution has led to strong value creation for our shareholders. The total shareholder return reached 98% since January 1st, 2024, and liquidity of the stock is also up by 120%. It led to AVENS inclusion in major equity indices. We are now entering our next phase of development with strategic plan AVENS 2029. While maintaining a strong focus on profitability, our strategy will be driven by a balanced approach, optimizing both growth and returns. Over the next three years, we expect to deliver a funded fleet growth of at least 3%. Earning assets will grow by around 10%. Leveraging our superior scale and tech, notably AI, will continue to enhance the intrinsic profitability of our business through further cost efficiencies, simplification and start decision initiatives across the group. If we look Going beyond 2029, we position today the group to capture the opportunities arising from evaluating customer needs and technological innovation. The 2029 financial targets mark a clear upgrade versus Power-up 26. In 2029, we target to deliver a cost-to-income ratio excluding inflation in Turkey at 49%, and a priority in the range of 14% to 16%. We increase our cash dividend payout target between 50% and 60%, and we will also be distributing excess capital back to shareholders. Finally, we raise our CT1 ratio target to circa 12.5%, which is aligned with how we've steered the company over the last two years. Let's now deep dive in the environment in which we operate. In Europe, registrations of new vehicles declined and remained structurally below their pre-COVID level. At around 13.3 million vehicles in 2025, they remained 16% below 2019, and expected at 12.5 million vehicles in 2030. In this context, the operating lease market has proved very resilient with a slight growth. Hence, it has clearly outperformed the auto market. Going forward, the operating lease market is expected to grow by 0.4% per annum, pushed by the transition from ownership to ownership. On top of that, the good news is there are sweet spots within the overall leasing industry with higher growth prospects where we plan to gain market share. As a result, for the next three years, our funded fleet will grow by more than 1% per annum. Let's now comment on electrification, a key change in our industry. In its early phase of development, BEVs didn't fully answer customer needs in terms of range on charging time. Besides, new BEV prices stood much higher than those of IC cars. Last, charging infrastructure was underdeveloped. The BEV market is still in a transition phase in which electric vehicle specification and infrastructure are progressively bridging the gap with client needs. This will lead to a further reduction in residual value uncertainty. New car prices on EV residual values will progressively converge towards the role of IC vehicles, as electric vehicles become the new norm. At the same time, used-car customers' adoption of BV is increasing thanks to a clear advantage in terms of cost-of-ownership versus traditional IEC cars. For havens, it means that we will progressively be in a position to seize more growth opportunities. Now turning to the competitive landscape. Banks, leasing captives of car manufacturers and car dealers who are traditionally active on financial leases, and small fleets. These actors are developing operating lease activities. Mainly because operating lease market has not decreased in a declining auto industry. On our side, at Havens, we have developed strong commercial franchises with international and large corporates. We are already strong in retail, which in our definition includes SMEs and private consumers, but we can clearly continue to develop. We are uniquely positioned to leverage the continuous shift to usership from retail customers. Let me go into more details on the next slide. First, with the largest fleet on the broadest geographic footprint, our scale is driving a cooperative advantage, impacting many aspects of our activities. Procurement is quite obvious. As an example, each year we purchase around 600,000 vehicles and 3 million tires for a yearly investment of around 20 billion euros. The economies of scale translate into a lower cost to serve our clients. Second, we gather considerable amounts of data on our running fleet across 40 countries. This allows us to monitor proactively our client's fleet and provide them the right services. Finally, we have developed a skilled and unique expertise in managing residual value risk across all power trains for all major models. Next slide, please. Going forward, the overall operating environment will create growth opportunities for events, which we will fully leverage now that we are done with our intensive integration phase and that uncertainty on BV's visual values has started to reduce. As a leader in the industry, we are uniquely positioned to leverage our scale, capabilities and customer reach to capture incremental share. We will grow organically, and also potentially through small bolt-on acquisitions. New OEMs, particularly from China, have emerged. The Chinese OEMs already gained a 6% market share in Europe in 2025 and 9% in H1 26. For the new entrants, without a financing captive, Avianz is a preferred partner with the broadest client reach. This is reflected in the partnerships we have established with companies like Tesla, BYD, and Cherry. The transition towards electric mobility gives us the opportunity to develop and scale new products and services, supporting both our growth and profitability objectives. Let's now get into the action plan and its projected financial impacts. The acquisition of Lee's plan has created a strong positive scale effect and allowed to build a resilient group in the context of rectification, but it also brought some complexity and disruption. This next strategic phase is about growing on selected sweet spots and developing new revenue streams. This is the third part, the first pillar of our A-Event Strategic Plan 29, grow selectively and upsell. Second, putting our clients first means providing them with best-in-class service. Indeed, we strive for operational excellence every day at every layer of the organization. So Excel is a second pillar of our strategy to make events simpler, more efficient, on easier to work with. Leveraging our talented people, data, tech and AI. Third, our responsibility is not only to manage today's mobility, but it is about preparing the future. As technology is accelerating, transform is the third and last pillar of our strategic plan. Our strategy will rely on solid foundations, our people, a robust risk management framework, and a business model which is increasingly sustainable. Let me elaborate on value creation for each stakeholder. We provide our customers cost-efficient and hassle-free mobility services. Our clients, notably large corporates, are also increasingly looking to reduce their fleet emissions. Event's impact on this aspect is measurable. In 2025, battery electric vehicles accounted for or 32% of events deliveries in Europe. The successful execution of our strategic plan will first and foremost depend on our people. Now that integration is behind us, we'll focus on developing our people by creating an engaging and empowering work environment where they can develop and thrive. Finally, we create value for our shareholders. Over the past three years, this meant prioritizing value over volumes on maintaining a disciplined focus on returns. As we enter the next chapter, we will leverage our competitive strengths to optimize both growth and profitability, translating into superior returns for our shareholders. To achieve our ambition, we are aligning the culture across events with our strategic priorities, fostering accountability, performance, and embedding client-centricity across the organization. As a first step, I streamlined the Executive Committee in February, establishing clearer and more actionable areas of responsibility to accelerate decision-making and execution. This principle is now being cascaded through the organization with delaying an increase of span of control. These simplified structures are designed to increase execution speed. AI represents a major opportunity to further improve operating excellence and efficiency. Together with our data capabilities, it will enable smarter decision-making, greater automation. Beyond technology deployment, success will require a cultural shift. We are training employees on new technologies, leveraging data more effectively, and integrating AI into their daily work. Finally, in a moving environment, agility remains essential to anticipate change, adapt quickly, and capture emerging opportunities while proactively managing our risks. Following the acquisition of lease plan, Avons became a financial hoarding company regulated by the ECB. It led to substantial enhancement of our risk management framework, governance, and control environment. Our robust risk management is essential to protect our balance sheet and deliver sustainable returns. It covers all of our risks. Regional value risk remains our most significant exposure and a key area of expertise. The effectiveness of our setup has helped the group navigate the material disruption in the current leasing industry. Indeed, the most structuring change has been the electrification of vehicles which have emerged as a distinct asset class with their own residual value drivers and risk dynamics. Among leasing players, we are the first to adapt our BV pricing. The divergence in used car sales results across the sector illustrates the benefits of acting early. We will continue to closely monitor result value developments and maintain a disciplined approach to risk management. Turning now to sustainability. We take an end-to-end approach from responsible sourcing sustainable mobility solutions to life cycle management. A particularly compelling opportunity is circularity in repair and maintenance. There is significant untapped potential to extend vehicle leasing life, increase the use of refurbished spare parts, reduce waste, and improve economics at the same time. This integrated approach is supported by our robust EAG risk management and transparent disclosures that meet the expectations of regulators, investors and other stakeholders. This approach delivers measurable results. Our objective is to reduce the CO2 intensity of our lease fleet to between 75 and 85 grams per kilometer by 29 compared to 101 grams in 2025. This supports our SBTI validated decarbonization pathway that remains unique in our industry and reflects the credibility and ambition of our transition plan. These actions create value across our business, helping customers transform their fleets, optimizing our costs, strengthening employee engagement, and enhancing our brand. And I will now ask Bernot to present our first pillar, Grow.

Bernot Other

Thank you very much, Philippe. Our ambition is clear. We want to gain market share while optimizing returns. And we expect our funded fleet to grow by more than 3% between 2026 and 2029. This will increase our earning assets by approximately 10%. We will target profitability, growing geographies. We will also focus on attractive segments. We plan to grow our retail fleet by 15% and we plan to grow our LCV fleet by around 10%. At the same time, we will increase service penetration across our client base. This will support service margins. We will start with our established insurance and damage cover offer. Here, we plan to raise penetration by at least three percentage points. Evolving mobility needs and technologies also create new service opportunities. And by 2029, we plan to roll out Avon's Power, our EV charging solution. In 15 countries is where we plan to roll it out. we will also scale our LCV programs across markets. These include vehicle on road optimization, proactive service planning, and preventative maintenance. Let us now look at our growth and upsell plans in more detail. We expect modest growth in the operating lease market. As events, we will focus on some segments that have more growth and profitability potential. To achieve this, we screened the market through several lenses. We looked at geographies, customer segments, and products. We then selected the most compelling growth opportunities. Our ambition is to grow our funded fleet by more than 3% between 2026 and 2029. Let us take a close look at the selective approach, starting with geographies. Western Europe accounts for 80% of our funded fleet. And within this region, we have identified two groups of countries. The largest group consists of mature markets. These already have high leasing penetration, especially among corporate clients. In those markets, we aim to maintain and reinforce our leadership. And the second group consists of medium-growth markets, mainly in Southern Europe. Here, we will expand selectively through the most profitable channels. The UK is a distinct market, and as you know, we are already reshaping our commercial footprint here towards segments with stronger profitability profiles, and the net effect will be a reduction of the UK fleet. By contrast, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Latin America offer strong structural growth prospects. Their markets and leasing penetration are less mature. Their fleets are also predominantly ICE. These regions account for only 8% of our funded fleet today. But they offer another avenue for growth. We do not plan to enter new countries. Instead, we will accelerate development in our existing markets and outgrow the market. Let us now turn to our strategy by client segment. The corporate segment is already mature in Europe, so we expect growth to come mainly from retail clients, private consumers and SMEs. this segment should grow by around 7% between 2025 and 2029. Our ambition is to grow at roughly twice that pace. Retail clients are also attractive in terms of profitability. On average, margins are about 50 basis points higher than for our corporate clients. We already have a well-established retail footprint. These clients account for close to one-third of our funded fleet today. We serve them directly through our online showrooms and indirectly through our partners' networks and platforms. And to increase our retail coverage, we will industrialize our distribution capabilities. Digitalization will be a key enabler to improve the client experience and operational efficiency. It will also support scalable growth. We will use AI and digital capabilities to create a simple and seamless journey. It will be fully integrated through the contract lifecycle. We will return to the specific initiatives and roadmap later. Light commercial vehicles are another compelling opportunity. The market should grow by 7% between 2026 and 2029. And demand remains largely focused on ICE vehicles. This offers an attractive mix of growth, profitability and limited residual value risk. And to capture this opportunity, we will sharpen our commercial focus on SMEs and under-penetrated markets. At the same time, we will come strengthening our LCV proposition through differentiated services and operational expertise. One example is our turnkey offer, proprietary turnkey offer. It is an in-house, best-in-class solution. Clients get access to pre-configured vehicles that are available immediately. We use our scale in vehicle procurement and conversion. This lets us offer competitive pricing and a faster, simpler customer experience. The solution is already deployed in the Netherlands, and we will roll this out in more markets. Beyond vehicle supply, we help clients maximize vehicle availability and productivity. We do this through vehicle on-road optimization, proactive service planning, and preventative maintenance. These services include downtime and improved utilization. To keep our clients' businesses running efficiently, this is especially valuable for LCV clients. Every day off the road directly affects business performance. Our uptime management capabilities are most advanced in the UK, and they are considered to be best in class, and we now plan to expand them across our entities. Electric LCVs are another growth driver. OEMs are improving their lineups, ranges are longer, and operating performance is stronger. Electric vehicles can therefore meet our commercial fleet needs. And electrification also offers favorable economics in a high-fuel cost environment. Together these factors should accelerate adoption, and we aim to lead this transition and support clients throughout our electrification journey. Together, these initiatives position us to gain market share in LCVs, and we aim to grow our funded fleet in LCV from around 530,000 vehicles today to approximately 580,000 in The second part of our growth plan is upsell. We will increase service penetration and develop new value-added offers. This will support revenue growth. It will also help offset the expected decline in maintenance margins as electrification reduces servicing needs. Service penetration varies across markets, service categories, and client segments. This creates a significant opportunity to increase our share of wallet. the opportunity is especially strong in insurance and damage cover. As technology, mobility patterns and client expectations evolve, new service opportunities are emerging. We plan to expand Avon's power, our EV charging solution, and to scale our LCV fleet, downtime management services across markets. Let us look at two concrete examples, starting with insurance and damage cover. Insurance is an attractive growth area with a compelling risk and return profile. Motor insurance is typically a high-frequency, low-severity business, and Avens is well-positioned to serve corporate and SME clients. We can provide timely, best-in-class service on competitive terms, we control repair costs, and we monitor our clients' fleets in close collaboration with them. Avens has well-established expertise and strong footprint, through its dedicated, fully-fledged insurance subsidiary. We plan to build on this position and increase penetration by three percentage points from the current 53%. In short, this business has four attractive characteristics. Low operational volatility, strong client retention among those who choose our offer, no funding requirement, and an accredited contribution to the group's ROTE. Let's move to the second example of upsell opportunities. Our ambitions in electric vehicle charging provide a concrete example of how we intend to turn market challenges into growth opportunities. For many clients, charging remains complex. They must find an available charge point, navigate different networks, and manage different payment methods. AVEN's power simplifies this. A single card gives access to more than 1 million charge points across Europe. This creates real value for clients and it strengthens our relationship and generates recurring margins. The AVENS power card and app are already available in the Netherlands and Norway and we plan to roll them out progressively to 15 countries by 2029. The financial contribution will grow over time and more than compensate the decrease of fuel card revenues. Having covered our growth ambitions I will now give back the floor to Philippe for a second pillar of our plan, Excel.

Philippe CEO

Thank you, Bernou. As you can see on the screen, our costs include 1.7 billion euros of annual OPEX and 2.6 billion euros of vehicle operations annual spend in 2025. There remains significant potential to further enhance productivity and efficiency across the organization by simplifying and standardizing our processes. With AI capabilities, we intend to enhance productivity by 30% on selected key processes through the automation of labor-intensive processes. On IT specifically, we spend around 450 million euros per year. Ambition is to build a more harmonized, efficient and scalable technology landscape. It will reduce costs while progressively shifting resources from run activities to projects that enhance our capabilities and support future growth. AI will be instrumental in accelerating this transformation. Overall, these initiatives will be driving a steady decrease of OPEX throughout the AVEN's 2029 strategic plan. We also address the operating costs embedded within our service margins. We have identified further opportunities to leverage this group scale, optimize supply spending and improve efficiency. As a result, we are targeting a 2% reduction in these costs by the end of 2029. Let's see that in detail. We are determined to leverage AI as a key enabler of our ambitions, driving greater operational efficiency, low cost and client satisfaction. We see a significant potential to be more efficient in our business processes. We are targeting 30% efficiency on eight core processes across finance, commerce, on service and operation functions. We will also simplify the customer journey and fulfill our ambition towards our clients, make mobility easier. On IT, we are equipping our developers with AI-powered tools and capabilities to accelerate delivery and improve productivity, targeting 30% efficiency gains across the software development lifecycle. Realizing this potential is as much about people as it is about technology. We have launched dedicated training to all our staff with more than 3,200 employees already trained to date. And we will complete the training across all our employees in the coming months. Let's now look at two concrete examples of how we are leveraging AI to optimize the customer journey, starting with customer request handling. Customer interactions are a critical part of our service model with more than 15 million contacts managed every year. To address growing customer expectations while improving efficiency, we are developing an AI-powered customer interaction model. We have done first deployment in Belgium and France before scaling to other large countries. To illustrate how this will work, imagine a customer looking for information about vehicle delivery, a contract amendment or an invoice. Instead of contacting an employee in customer service directly, the customer can first use a chatbot through MyAvents. The chatbot will instantly answer questions using customer-specific information and our knowledge base. If the inquiry requires additional support, the conversation can seamlessly move to live chat or another preferred digital channel. The customer doesn't need to repeat information. For more complex cases that require human intervention. AI supports our service agents by gathering relevant information and preparing draft responses. Our staff remain fully in control of the customer interaction but benefit from faster processing, reduced administrative work, and more consistent responses. It allows our teams to focus on the interactions where human expertise creates the greatest value. This improves customer satisfaction, increases productivity and lowers our cost to serve. Let us now move to the second use case on onboarding. Client onboarding is a critical step in the customer journey. Today, our KYC and credit onboarding processes are fragmented, differ across countries and still rely too heavily on manual activities. We onboard every year around 100,000 clients. Streamlining and automating those processes represents another significant opportunity. Our strategy is to build an efficient and risk-resilient onboarding model by harmonizing and optimizing practices across countries. We will accelerate digitalization, strengthen data quality, and deploy core onboarding capabilities across the organization. We'll build a scalable operating model with faster onboarding, lower cost per client, and better quality of control and KYC. It will also help us accelerate retail expansion while maintaining a low cost of risk. Let's move to IT strategy. Following the integration of the Enlist plan, we operate a fragmented IT landscape. Our vision is to progressively harmonize our technology landscape and implement a global multi-platform across the group. Together with the simplification and standardization of our processes, the GMP will drive automation projects on a more consistent customer experience. It is built as a set of independent modules that can be deployed separately from one another. This means we do not need to implement the full platform everywhere at once. Instead, we will prioritize deployments where business needs and value creation opportunities are the greatest. Our investment priority is the front-end, where customer interactions are a key differentiator and where tailored solutions can create the most value. For back-office activities, our objective is to leverage standard solutions with a proven tax record. This plan will allow us to reduce our IT intensity ratio by 3 points to reach 12% in 2029, while improving the allocation of our technology investments. This will be done with an increase of 50% of our build costs while reducing the run cost of our application. Next slide. Vehicle operations represent a cost base of more than 2.6 billion euros of annual spend. Across the group, some countries are already delivering best-in-class performance. demonstrates that the practices, tools, and capabilities required already exist within events today. Our focus is to deploy its best practice across our entities. One area where scale creates tangible value is procurement. We are further strengthening purchasing discipline and leveraging our size to secure better commercial terms. This includes increasing preferred network steering in repair on maintenance, as well as expanding preferred brands on supply agreements in tires. The second area is about improving the way we manage our spending. Key initiatives include spare parts optimization, more disciplined repair processes, and repair glass management. We will also ensure repair versus replace decisions in line with best-in-class standards. Finally, beyond these examples, we see significant potential in systematic cross-control. The combination of AI, a 50 million event data lake, country benchmarking, and control towers will further enable us to detect inefficiencies faster, to challenge performance more effectively and continually improve cost-to-serve management across the group. By 2029, we target to cut our net spending in service margins, so we represent net savings of about 60 million euros per annum. Remarketing is another critical part of our business. We expect to sell more than 500,000 vehicles per annum. There are two main drivers of the remarketing performance. The first is the price at which we sell vehicles. We will direct vehicles to the best sales channels, carefully manage resale timing to avoid stock accumulation, and measure our performance versus market benchmarks. The second is the cost of selling vehicles, which is largely logistics-related. We focus on reducing the time vehicles remain in our remarketing chain and challenge the cost of each logistic provider. Looking further ahead, we aim to embed remarketing much more deeply into our value chain. By leveraging its expertise on market intelligence, remarketing will play a greater role in vehicle purchase decisions. It will help determine the right vehicles, specifications and acquisition prices to optimize residual values and maximize life cycle returns. Overall, these initiatives will improve our remarketing performance with a target to improve by 1% to 2% the average used car selling price. Let's now turn to the third pillar of our strategic plan, Transform. Creating long-term value also requires to anticipate how the mobility ecosystem will evolve and to position events to capture the future opportunities. Customers are increasingly looking for affordable solutions, creating an opportunity in used car leasing. Used car lease, that we name Re-Lease, is a natural extension of our retail growth engine. We think our customer value proposition addresses the issue of affordability. It combines lower cost, 15% to 25% cheaper than a new vehicle lease, and high quality of the assets with no residual value risk for the customer. It will become more and more attractive with used BEVs when the market matches as BEVs have a lower maintenance cost. We are confident we can grow this product to a 100k plus fleet in 2029 with a higher potential in 2030 decades as electric becomes the new norm. The model delivers a creative profitability versus traditional new vehicle leasing. Next slide. Software-defined and AI-enabled vehicles are one of the most important long-term developments in the auto industry. Connected vehicles continuously generate information on usage, battery health, maintenance requirements, on operating performance. Thanks to improving accessibility to OEM data and advances in AI, that information is becoming easier to aggregate and translate into actionable use cases. Connected vehicle data can support predictive maintenance, proactive roadside assistance, accident management, battery health monitoring, emissions reporting, and a range of other new data-enabled fleet services. These capabilities can help customers reduce downtime, lower costs, and improve fleet performance. Next slide. Autonomous mobility is one of the most widely discussed trends in the auto industry, and we think the long-term potential is significant. The path to adoption is likely to be gradual, uneven across markets, depending on local regulation, and volume forecasts vary widely. Beyond these circumstances, we know it will be a sizable opportunity for EVANS. We believe EVANS is a natural partner, thanks to its expertise in fleet management. We are actively monitoring technology, regulatory and market developments, and engages with key players across the ecosystem. I now give the floor to Patrick for the financial trajectory.

Patrick CFO

Thank you, Philippe. So, let's start with the macroeconomic outlook. we have a scenario of progressive stabilization of the current uncertainties and of low growth low inflation for western europe gdp growth in the eurozone should come up to circa 1.5 percent while the ecb deposit facility rate does not go higher than 2.75 percent Inflation should cool down to stabilize at a level around 2%. The price scenario for cars is a very moderate increase for ice and hybrids and the continuation of downward scenario for beef and PHEV. We have been applying these as early as H1 2024. In this backdrop, our indicative outlook is an earning assets growth of circa 10% with an acceleration across the period 26-29. Margins in million euros will grow, however, margins expressed in basis points of earning assets will slightly soften under the effect of new car production and a higher share of electric vehicles. The contribution of used car sales results should be very limited. Operating expenses will decrease in absolute value from 26 to 29. So let us now spend a couple minutes on our funding strategy. As you know, since September 2023, we have put in place a diversified funding strategy which has successfully enabled us to lower our cost of funding and grow our living margin. As of today, we have a stock of funding on our balance sheet of around 45 billion euros, which is split between Societe Generale and external sources of funds, including retail deposits, bank loans, and funding from the market through bonds and securitization. We benefit from high rating levels as displayed on the bottom left box on the slide. The reduction in the overall funding cost that we have had over the past three years is reflected in the narrowing of our credit spread on the chart. This has been supported by three pillars. First, the successful execution of the merger and the increase of profitability secured notably through the synergies. This has become very apparent to bond market investors since age 224, as you can see from the evolution of the credit spread. Second, the lower interest costs and the bond issuance, as these have come in strong demand with high oversubscription rate. Last but not least, an increasing proportion of retail deposits, which now represents close to a third of our total funding, higher than that we had targeted at the beginning back in 2003, which was ranging between 25% and 30%. And as you are aware, retail deposits are our cheapest funding source. Going forward, we will keep on diversifying our funding sources. Deposits that we collect via Evans Bank should represent an increasingly important source of funds from 33% today to a range of 35% to 40%. We will grow our deposit base in the Netherlands and Germany, in which significant development potential lies ahead. Besides, it is likely that we will also test and tap in other open markets to achieve and potentially exceed this ambition. With between 1 to 2 billion euros of annual issues, securitization will represent an increasing share of our funding mix, targeting a contribution slightly above 10%. As for bonds, we plan to issue 2 to 3 billion euros per annum. The share of bonds is expected to decrease slightly from 24% today to around 20% in 2029. So overall, the continuation of diversification and a lower cost of funds for the group going forward. So let me say a few words on how we are going to improve the readability of our performance. From 2027, we will stop reporting underlying margins and underlying cost income. Back in 2003, we had several items making the performance of events difficult to read. First, a significant amount of cost to achieve. Second, the unexpected volatility of the mark-to-market of swaps inherited from this plan edging strategy. And third, the impact of PPA. We will not highlight these items anymore for the following reasons. Cost to achieve will not be mentioned as the integration period is over. This is not to say that we will not invest in our business, but this will be part of our BAEU costs. We have fully unwound the swap book of lease plans. Today, we only use swap in a reasonable manner. There is no reason to anticipate that this will have a meaningful impact on our PNL, and therefore no reason to highlight it. Lastly, amortization of the PPA has now been almost entirely done. So the only piece of volatility we will keep is hyperinflation in Turkey, as it is purely exogenous. Today, it represents an annual impact of around 100 million euros. this impact is due to the fact that our running fleet in Turkey, around 25,000 cars, does not see their price increasing as fast as inflation. Therefore, every quarter, we have to impair the fleet corresponding to the gap between car prices and CPI evolutions. This impact should reduce as inflation is progressively contained. However, we still anticipate some volatility on at least the two next years. So, the current cost income guidance for 26% at 52% on an underlying basis excluding all non-recurring items is strictly equivalent to 53% excluding hyperinflation alone. Going forward, we will base our disclosure and guidance on cost income excluding hyperinflation. So as a result of the strategy and course of actions that we have described, we will decrease cost income by four points. This improvement will be led by increasing revenues, but also by a steady decrease of our operating expenses. Looking at the charts and going through the various items, we estimate that operating expenses inflation will present close to three percentage points of cost income. BEV embed a slightly lower service margin than ICE vehicles. Hence, a higher proportion of BEV in our fleet will lead to a slight softening of margin expressed in BEV's points. Also, resuming growth will lead to new assets entering our earning assets with a high book value. This will also contribute to slightly soften the margin expressed in business points. Altogether, these two items should represent two percentage points of adverse cost income evolution. Now, coming to the benefits of our strategic plan, we will grow our earning assets and we will grow our margins in euros. This should represent an improvement of circa three percentage points of our cost income. We will also improve the group's productivity, in particular through the extensive use of AI and also the optimization of our operating model. Altogether, this should represent an improvement of six percentage points in the cost income, coming from both the reduction in our operating expenses and a reduction in the cost included in our service margin. In total, cost income at 52% excluding non-recurring items in 2016, equivalent to 53% excluding hyperinflation, will be decreasing by 4% by 29% to reach 49% excluding hyperinflation. As mentioned by Philippe, we are upgrading our financial targets, so we will reach a return on tangible equity ranging between 14% and 16% to be compared with the previous range of 13% to 15%. Here, I would like to stress that between 23% and 26%, the improvement in the ratio has actually been stronger than anticipated on margins, cost, and capital management. Indeed, in the 13 to 15 percent range that we gave in September 2023, there was an assumption of more than 250 million euros in the annual UCS results embedded into the revenues. As you know from our H-126 results and from the indication we gave today, the actual number of UCS will be much lower in 26, rendering the rest of the performance even more remarkable. CET1 ratio will be at around 12.5% and as we explained in detail, cost income excluding hyperinflation will decrease 4 percentage points from 53 to 49. Lastly, we plan a regular dividend payout ratio increased from 50 to a range between 50 and 60%. if everything goes according to plan, a payout ratio of 60% does not absorb the significant cash generation of the firm. Therefore, there might be small to medium-sized bolt-on acquisition and the rest will be swiftly returned to shareholders through exceptional cash dividends or share buyback, as we have been doing in a disciplined manner in 2025 and 2026. With this, I hand it over to Philippe for the conclusion of our presentation. Thank you very much.

Philippe CEO

Thank you, Patrick. Let me now conclude our presentation. First, in a difficult car market environment, the operating lease market has been and will be resilient, notably supported by the ongoing shift to usership. We will leverage our scale, our customer-centric DNA, to grow in selected profitable segments, in particular the smaller fleet. After a period of integration following the merger, we can now be fully focused on operational excellence to combine superior customer service and lower costs. We'll leverage new tech across the board. I want to thank all our employees that are the foundation of our success. Our plan will contribute to create sustainable value for our shareholders, with an ROT between 14% and 16%, a dividend payout ratio between 50% and 60%, plus the return of excess capital. If we take a step back, we can see three periods in Evans' journey. The first one was the creation of Evans, with the challenge of becoming regulated, executing the merger in the context of the biggest transformation of the auto market in the last decades. The second phase that we now open will see more stability within events as IT migration is now behind us. This is the opportunity to grow our profitability, leveraging a continuous improvement of our platforms and processes. In the 2030 decade, electrified cars will become the new norm residual value risk will become comparable to what it was historically with IECs before the transition. This will open a new phase of sustained growth on higher profitability. Thank you for your attention. We look forward to answering your questions after a 15-minute break.

Operator

We're going now into our Q&A session, so we please ask you to limit yourself to two questions at a time so that everybody has the opportunity to ask questions and obviously if time permits then you can come back with new questions number one please towards the front yeah thank you very much good afternoon I had two and I may sneak a subsidiary one the first one is if I were to tell

Speaker 12

you that use car sales result will be zero from now on to the end of the plan can you still deliver 14 16% rot the second question is on the fleet and on the country in particular I remember that previously before the old plan you were not sure about Turkey and keeping Turkey as a market and it seems that since you assume that hyperinflation is going to continue you will stay in Turkey more generally within your book considering what happened in the UK are there any potential of weakness you're seeing there or are you still happy about the residual value and its sensitivity to different shocks? And the last question if I may, hearing Benno in particular, why don't you change your headquarters to the Netherlands? Thank you.

Philippe CEO

Okay, thank you for those three questions. I may start by the third one. I think one of the strengths of events, the diversity of our people. We are in the 40 markets, and I think it's important to keep this cultural diversity in headquarters. So we are happy with the two headquarters for the moment. I think we'll have some evolution in the sense that probably we'll get to more specialized teams in each place in order to improve efficiency. But I think we don't aim to build a French company. We're a super international diverse company and I think it's a strength. And you can see that in the management and that remains the case. The last person that I recruited for the EXCO is Emma Furnies, our Chief People Officer, which is a British citizen located in Amsterdam. So it gives you an indication that we want to maintain this diversity. On the second question that was about are we happy with our book on residual values. Well, I would say if we look at what has been done in the last years, since at the end of 2023 was taken a decision to review the perspective of the market in particular for the BEV, and I think it was a very sound decision. It took a while to decrease the visual values. It took a 24, 20, 25. We've continued in 2025, but we think that the level that we've reached is pretty reasonable on the BAV. And the more the years go, in fact, the more we have visibility on the BAVs because customer acceptance in use house is starting to grow. And probably the last months with the MediaList events have helped to educate the customer about the benefits of the BV in terms of cost of ownership, and it's quite visible. For the first question, I think I will ask Patrick to take the answer, please.

Patrick CFO

So indeed, if I remember well, it was a question around UCS, considering what we are the results of H1. So we have given a guidance that we stick to for UCS in the full year, which I remind you, a range of evolution of 200 to 600 for gross UCR per car. So we will be in this range, albeit on the low side of this range. And also, we believe we will maintain a slightly positive net UCS in 2026, considering most recent developments.

Operator

Shahratz, number one, please.

Shahratz Kumar Analyst — Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon. Shahratz Kumar from Deutsche Bank. I have two questions. firstly on margins related to your second quarter level of greater than 600 basis points I want to understand how much margin compression is embedded within your guidance at least my assumption that it is more likely to be closer to 600 basis points rather than 550 I can see tailwinds through higher retail penetration, LCV, whereas there is one notable Edwin in the form of BEV penetration. So if you could just help us with the moving parts and also quantify what the margins for BEVs versus ICE vehicles as well as for LCVs. That's my first one. The second one is on bond yields in an environment of bond yields, IEA bond yields, in an environment of structurally IEA bond yields, how exposed is your business to IEA funding costs? Is it fair to say that it's broadly neutral given that you have ability to pass on IEA funding costs and given where to your fleet growth assumptions are, it shouldn't be punitive. So any thoughts there would be appreciated. Thank you.

Philippe CEO

I think Patrick will answer the second question and then we'll answer the first one. So on the margins development, as we've seen in the presentation, we forecast for a slight decrease in margins in BIPs, which are evolving with two contradictory factors. we've got one the positive factor which is all the action plan that we make to develop the margin especially working on the service margin cost and there is a strong focus to look in the company not margins but at costs individually because if you just realize the volume of costs that we have costs are not equal to OPEX that are 1.6 1.7 billion as you can simply now costs are the OPEX plus the cost in the service margin, which are more than 2.6, plus the cost in remarketing, 100 million euros in logistics, plus cost of purchasing cars, which are around 20 billion. So there is a lot to be done there, and we're absolutely determined to attack that like the OEM attack the cost, which is not exactly the culture of a service company, maybe, but I think it's the culture that we want to have. So that is very helpful. on the margins. There are two things that are not helpful on the margin expressed in BIPs. The first one is for the moment, and I insist on for the moment, a BEV has less margin than an IC car because the real value expressed in percentage of a BEV is lower compared to an IC. But this is linked to the fact that technology is improving very fast in BEV, But over time, the used car BEV becomes more obsolete to the new vehicle compared to what was an IC compared to a new vehicle. But over time, this is fading away. And one day I was saying in my presentation, BEV will become the new norm, which means that directionally in the future, the percentage of decrease of a used car compared to a new vehicle will be similar for BEV as what it's always been for an IC. which means that today we've got a difference between the margin and BIP between the BV and IC but this is going to decrease our time but for the moment there is indifference and as we sell more BV every year this has a dilutive impact for the moment on the margin so this is a negative impact and the second negative one is when we start growth due to the way accounting is done in this business you've got a bit less margin at the beginning of the contract and the end. So mechanically, when you restart growth, it's slightly dilutive. So these two effects are compensating the positive effects of all our actions, which leads to a margin in dips that slightly decrease compared to the level where we are. But our plan is a plan based on margins, on OPEX, and these are the two topics that we are focusing on. We don't base the plan on used car sales. Patrick, you want to take the...

Patrick CFO

Yes, thank you. I think the second question was pertaining to the exposure on interest rates and our ability to pass it to customers. So, yes, we are able to, and we do it, to pass to our customers on a very regular basis increased interest rates. However, we are a stock business, so it can take a bit of time, And we have a rough estimation, depending on the country, that for an increase of 100 business points of interest rate, we have the first year a negative impact of around 20 million on our margins. And that after the first year, if it stops there, the effect stops.

Peter Blaustein Analyst

Hi, Peter Blausdian out from California. Thank you for the terrific presentation. I have two questions. So, this sounds very loud, is it okay? Yeah, the sound is okay, yeah. Okay, here it's very loud. Okay, so scale is the overwhelming competitive advantage in leasing over the years, or over the decades. And so the ALD plus lease plan could have been, should have been, maybe is, one plus one equals three. Yet, we see the target today of a 15% ROTE, yet ALD ran 15% to 20%, and when we double in scale, why do we not see 20% ROTE? What's the gap between the theory of a much bigger company and the practice? Second question is on FTE, on employees. When the deal was announced, the combined company FTE was maybe $15,000. I think we're down to $14,000. However, primary diligence suggests that given the overlap in sales, technology, et cetera, the chance for natural attrition could drive FTE down pretty substantially.

Philippe CEO

What do you assume in your plan for 2029 to 2030 FTE? for the two questions um if uh patrick will correct me but what i have in mind is i was not there at that time but at the time of the measure the head counts were around 15 000 as you say and now we are at 12 500 people and uh we've continued to decrease uh we have continued to decrease the accounts in the in the last uh months and on quarters and obviously we'll continue to work on this. As you've seen, we've got clear targets on the cost side. So from a 15,000 to a 12,500 is what has been done. And it's not the end of the story, knowing that we work on all the parameters of cost. And in fact, as was explaining, you've got much more cost on procurement than it counts. Which doesn't mean that we don't work on it counts. You need to work on all parameters, but we've got more than 20 billion that are not headcount cost. On the second question, well, when we look in the past at what were the ROTE, and there were some periods with extremely high ROTE, there were two different things. One, there were periods with extremely high UCS result, use car sale result, and especially after the shortage of cars at the beginning of the decade shortage of new vehicle cars suddenly there was a fantastic windfall in the used car market so there was a shortage of car first because of COVID after that there was a shortage of car because of chips and that there was a shortage of car because of logistic issues and that led to a level of production of new vehicle that was below demand so it led the consumers to go to used car vehicles and And the used car sales result per car in 22 and 23 was about 3,000 to 4,000 euro per car, when historically it's a few hundred. So obviously this impacted very positively the ROT at that time, but that was like it happens once in every 50 years maybe. And in my 30 years of auto life, I've never seen that. The second part is, if you go a bit earlier in the history of these companies, margins expressed in BIPs in the leasing and service margins tend to be higher. But with cost to income ratio that compared to our 49 that were not better, but with much higher margins. And now working very hard on our processes and our costs, we can get to this efficient cost-to-income ratio with margin expressing BIPs that are a bit lower. And I was explaining BV ads now are less profitable than ICE, but I think it's something that will disappear in the future when the acceptance for use of used cars BV will become similar to what was traditionally the ICE acceptance. And this is gradually coming in.

Operator

Can you please go in the middle here?

Owen Patterson Analyst — Jefferies

Hi, it's Owen Patterson from Jefferies here. Just two questions. The first one, so you've outlined a market that's effectively flat growth terms just above. At the moment, at least, it seems like some key peers are willing to grow a bit faster than that. So I guess, you know, how are you balancing the risk to your own market share or your own margins if you want to protect market share or vice versa? How are you thinking about that? And then my second question is on Chinese residual values. You seem fairly happy with the exposure and development to Chinese vehicles. I guess, do you see residual value risk there at all? You know, their new brands, their aftermarket networks aren't as large. much? Is there a scenario where you, you know, hold back your exposure to Chinese vehicles? Thank you.

Philippe CEO

Okay. Thank you for the two questions. I will start by the second one. We don't make rezoning on the reserve values based on nationality. There is no reasoning about Chinese versus legacy card makers. It's an individual approach, and we work with what we call a scorecard of OEMs, and we've got a list of TPI that we track for them in order to set them in three categories. The OEMs that are in the red part, we don't want to work with them, and they can be Chinese, but they can be of any nationality. The preferred one, because their management of residual value is sound historically. Typically people that do not go to what we call the toxic channels, so namely rent a car and demo cars. Well, everybody goes to it, but it's a question of proportion. And you've got the in-between. So this influence the way we set RVs and we're experimentally reassessing each carmaker if the behavior evolves. So there is a list of components. In the other one that I was mentioning, behavior in toxic channels, but we could also mention, for example, availability of spare parts, because your question was about the Chinese. You know, if I take a Chinese carmaker that has, for example, an agreement with an existing a car maker to distribute spare parts and is able to deliver parts as fast as a player that has been in the industry for the last 30 years will not have the same judgment on the RV as a car maker that sends the parts from China and which provides parts in an erratic way. So this is this kind of very granular approach, very systematic, so not linked to the nationality. But it's also true that we need to pay attention because in China, well, I don't have the latest statistic, but a few years ago, we had 150 brands. And if you pay attention to what the Chinese government said a few days ago, but that is a repetition of what he said already in the past, he's preaching consolidation in China. So you need to check, well, what are the bets that you make. everybody is not BYD in terms of volume and capacity to gain market share so we need to pay attention to that when you make your choices on the result value. Sorry a bit long answer but I think it's an important topic. On behavior of competition, well if we look at what has happened in the last years I think we We had historically three leasing companies with more or less the same size, two merged, becoming immediately much bigger than the third one, which can have been understood as a stress for some players. So the other players, a number of them, were feeling that their lack of scale compared to events was an issue, though they tended for a number of them to be more aggressive, especially on NBV. If you look at the numbers that are published by some competitors, we see that both in 2025 and H1 in 2026, now this gives a difference in terms of margins and it gives a difference in terms of used car sales results. So our view is in a context that was a big disruption of the industry due to electrification, significant uncertainty in the residual value, our view it was not the moment to push the accelerator very strong on growth. But as I was explaining, the more the years go, the more this uncertainty decrease, so the more it will make sense to accelerate growth. So in our view, that's the reason why we mentioned the plan, that the growth that we indicate there will be less in 27 or more in 2029 because we think uncertainty will decrease so we should like look at what competition does with these eyes there was a question of scale we had the scale and even with the recent merger of one of our competitor if you look at total fleet total fleet not only funded fleet we remain well above and total fear remains important in terms of procurement not from for the procurement of cars but for the rest of procurement. So we are not pushed to growth for growth because we don't need it. What we do is permanent arbitration between growth and value. In the middle, please.

Matt Clark Analyst — Mediobanca

Hi, Matt Clark from Mediabanker. A couple of questions, please. Firstly, on the residual value, which I guess is 20-something billion, I can't remember the exact number, could you give us a sensitivity of it to the oil price? Presumably oil price going up a lot is bad for the residual value of ICE vehicles, what exactly is the sensitivity? How do you think about that risk to your residual values? And then second question is more on the capital side. You've given pretty conservative guidance in terms of fleet growth for the next few years. The corollary of that should be that there's higher scope for distributions. Could you give us your risk-weighted asset growth outlook? Should we just expect it to scale with the earning assets and so very little first couple of years and then some back-loaded growth into 2029 because that will help us understand the capital return prospects for you. Thank you.

Patrick CFO

Let's start with the second one on RWA growth. So we have mentioned earning asset growth of around 10%. As you are well aware, we have done some RWA optimization in the path for significant amounts there will still be a bit of RWA optimization but not to the same for the same scale not for the same magnitude making it that RWA growth should be slightly lower than any growth so with this I think you can have a good estimate already your first question was about sensitivity of high result values to the oil price, if I'm correct.

Philippe CEO

OK. What we've been seeing in the last six months with the Middle East events, it's more focus of the customers on the BEV used cars, obviously, because they look in terms of total cost of ownership, and they just realize that with an oil price that grows, it may become interesting to have a BV versus an IC so it's true that it has impacted the evolution of prices but not that significantly today so there is an erosion of the IC prices but it's also true that at its vast majority of what we sell in used car sales this has impacted and that's the reason why we've got gross UCS that is declining, as mentioned. Of that, on the ICE, so there is this oil parameter that you mentioned. But I think there will be also other parameters that can impact in the coming months. I will take one that we don't see yet, but I think we will see, which is the impact of the input cost of the OEM. you've got a number of input costs that are increasing for example the cost of chips and that given the magnitude of these increase in costs is difficult to think that in Europe car makers at Innoisi are not making a lot of money and we see that if you take the three main players of the industry in Europe that account for more than 50% of market share they don't have a profitability that allows them not to pass part of their input cost into prices. So if this happens, and I think it will happen the coming months, probably beginning of next year, that should have indirectly a positive impact on new car sales, IC or BV, but IC in particular. So we can see the negative impact of oil on the IC, but I think there are other impacts that are also inflation impact that can be positive in the coming month. So we'll follow that regularly. And as we've been doing at the beginning of each year, we give you an indication about where we see the gross UCS result for the coming year.

Matt Clark Analyst — Mediobanca

Thank you.

Philippe CEO

In terms of that inflationary impact from higher chip prices, etc., do you see that as a comparable magnitude to the oil price impact, the negative oil price impact that we've seen so far we've not seen the impact today in the new vehicle prices but I think we'll we'll come to see it because between it first hits the suppliers of the EM after that it goes to the OEM and of that the OEM pass it to the new orders so there is always a lag between the moment where it happens and the moment where you see it in the new vehicles for us historically when you got inflation a new vehicle it's a positive on the used car, because as we all know, the used car market and the new vehicle markets are highly correlated.

Matt Clark Analyst — Mediobanca

But in terms of the oil factor and the chip factor, do you think they're roughly balanced over time?

Philippe CEO

Should we balance, sorry?

Matt Clark Analyst — Mediobanca

Over time, in terms of impact on UCS. We've had a negative impact from oil already. There will be a positive impact from chips in the future, perhaps. Do the magnitudes broadly offset?

Philippe CEO

You know, in my answer, you were mentioning oil price, I was saying there are also parameters that impact the used car market. We all know that it's a market that is difficult to predict in terms of prices, and that's the reason why we fundamentally base our plan on what is in our hands, margins, OPEX. But my answer was to say, well, some people at the moment, just looking at the very recent months take very negative view on this and they're not only bad news and these things can evolve quite fast. In the coming years the share of BEV used car is increasing so when you've got all prices it increase that is helpful for BEV so we'll be less unbalanced between IC and BEV in terms of sales mix which in scenario for price continuing to go up is helpful thank you to the very left of the no left of the room please sorry be right back thank you joffro from um although i was doing a quick

Joffro Analyst

calculation on your targets for lcvs and the retail your 10 and 15 increase it leads to a 7% decrease in the total fleet growth. It means that you will probably decrease by 4% on other areas, you mentioned indeed the UK. Are there other countries, or I would say channels, or things you would like to grow negatively? And a second question is on the attachment rate of insurance that you mentioned. we can see from one of your competitor presentation that he has a much higher attachment rate is there any explanation for that in your view or maybe it's not completely comparable to what you describe as attachment rate, thank you do you want to take the second one?

Philippe CEO

I will answer the first one first on the numbers on the LCV on the retail we cannot addition them because part of the retail growth is with LCV but to your point it's true that we want to focus where we've got profitable growth so in each country we look at all the channels we look at all the products and we make choices and we do not hesitate to decrease if there is an issue of profitability to decrease volume there is an issue of profitability. So the main geography where we think we're going to decrease in volumes is the UK. There is no doubt with that. It's been the case in the last months, not to say years. We've stopped one channel completely and we are now looking at customers which have high complexity, high customization when we serve them, and low margins. And we get to them with either we modify the price or we stop that so that's the only place where we've got a clear view to decrease because we think that at the moment some customers are not worth in terms of profitably but you know these things can evolve at one point in time in the UK market I think a number of actors will be fed up to to lose money we've got one company a leasing company quite significant that has been for sale for now quite a while. I don't remember how long but I was proposed a deal in my previous life so it's now, I don't know, it was maybe two years ago and well it's not the only player that has issues so for the moment we take actions but we are committed to the UK because we think that long term probably one point in time the market will be taking into account that with the BV's mandate in the UK you have to set the real values at the right place. So but to your question is UK is the only geography where we plan to decrease for the moment remaining super focused on how the market evolves and to be able to change our mind if needed. At that it's more a question of granularity in each channel and to focus on channels that have a good perspective. That's the point. And, Bernou, if you can answer the question, the attachment rate in insurance compared to competition. But maybe if I... Okay, I will answer and you will compliment if it's not okay. First, when you talk about the ratio attachment rate, there are different ways to compute the calculation. We take the total fleet, we don't exclude things and we calculate an attachment rate. So simple, simple numerator, simple denominator. I think the competitor you're alluding to is not exactly doing that because what many competitors are doing they take what they call the eligible fleet and the eligible fleet is you say well no number of customers that have agreements for example for their insurance globally so it's not a target, it's not a customer targeting address. So if you reduce the denominator, removing the non-angeliable fleet, well, your ratio is better. But from what we see, we are in a good position and we want to continue to grow by three points.

Speaker 4

In addition to that, as part of the upsell, we also see opportunities where we ensure vehicles that are not part of our fleet yet. So for instance, if we share a customer with a competitor, we have opportunities to expand even the insurance that we offer beyond the cars that are simply in our books. And we're also considering offering that, for instance, to customers that are not customers to either our fleet management product or funded fleet, because it's sort of like a reverse upsell. You start with insurance, and after that, there's also an opportunity to sell additional services that we can provide. And that distorts maybe a little bit that percentage as well.

Operator

So, in the middle, please, and then...

Mourad Lamedy Analyst — BNP

Yes, good evening. Mourad Lamedy from BNP. So, I have two questions. The first one is on the market consolidation and the impact that it could have had on pricing. Do you feel that the pricing environment has been more conducive, less conducive, or neutral compared to the last five years? First question. Second question, if you look at the very long history of your company, there was a time where when UCS was negative even your competitor has negative UCF so I just want you if you if you may stress test this scenario what would it take for for events to post a negative UCS thank you okay so about market consolidation, well the move has started because if you just look at the last three years, four years, finally we combine ALD and lease plan.

Philippe CEO

You've got Arval and Athlon that have combined recently and you've got free to move on the leases that have combined in leases. So you already had three combinations. What we've seen, and there will probably be more with some small players that have hard time to follow the pace in terms of investments and to be able, especially on IT, to serve properly the customers. So I think we're going to have a continuous move on consolidation. As we were commenting a bit earlier, compared to the scale that we got with our merger, some players felt they were lagging behind and that it was an issue for them. And so I've been much more obsessed by growth than what we've been. Logically, when they get to a scale that is closer to us, I think the motivation to take significant risk to grow market share very fast will probably decline but we don't count on that in our plan for the moment but it could be something that could be an upside in a versus our scenario but it's not embedded in our trajectory we take the plan and saying well competition will remain the same and if there is a move in the pricing trajectory of some competitors it would be a plus to our trajectory. On the UCS the question was in the history negative UCS on the full year basis it happened but if you look in the 30 40 years basis it's really not common and so the two characteristics I would say first it's really not common it happened in a crisis like the big financial crisis 20 years ago and the second characteristic is finally it recovers fast and that's something that is encouraging the to say crisis on the You say this can happen, but history has shown that it recovers fast, which is something that we should have in mind. After that, well, for us, at the moment, we are guiding on the net UCS this year that is slightly positive, and we've not put any significant number for the coming two years because it corresponds to the fact that 2023 and 2024 our result values were relatively high and I was explaining we decreased from the peak that was reached end of 2023 we decreased our result value steadily so these two years are a bit tense I would say on this respect on the BV cars, even if the latest six months are helpful for BVs. Prices on BV-used cars have increased by around 10% in the last six months in Europe.

Operator

So please, Implementer. And then after the finish.

Harold Hendriks Analyst — Citi

Thank you. Harold Hendricks from Citi. We'll try and stay away from residuals. I think we've done a lot of that already. Slightly different questions. Firstly, one of the slides, you talk about transformation and looking at the growth opportunities. You already talked, obviously, a little bit about reallocating capital to the best areas. But that line reads to me very much along the lines of M&A. So maybe you can talk a little bit about that. How much would you be willing to spend? What are you looking at? What are those opportunities? Is it, you know, South America? Or, right, it's clear you're looking at different markets potentially to grow, given that the core market is quite mature. And then the second question is, I mean, something huge in autos, maybe less so in auto finance, but the EU is going to make, hopefully, some intelligent decisions one of these days regarding protecting the European automotive industry. Do you see any opportunities or threats to your business from that, or is it largely irrelevant to you?

Philippe CEO

Well, I will start by the second question. So I suppose on the second question, you alluded to the discussions about the PHEV because European Union took action on BV and we've seen an impact. And if we look at the numbers, in H1 2026, penetration of Chinese in the BV is around 15%. On the PHEV, it's 28%, which is a massive increase compared to the same period of the prior year, which was, my memory is correct, around 10%. So they move from 10% to 28% in one year. And obviously, some voices in Europe say, well, we need to do something on the PHEV as we did on the PV. For us, I would say it can only be upside. I don't see any negative in that, because if this happens, there will be a reduced pressure on the used car market, because very aggressive PHEV from China today They compete with some recent used cars, maybe not our four years old car, but with some two years old car, but that drags all the market down on PTV. So I only see an upside possible if this happened and if nothing happened, well, it's like today. On the M&A, I would say that at this stage, what makes sense for us is to use some bolt-on opportunities in the existing geographies. So I can see two kinds of M&A. Countries in which margins are challenged. So I could give examples like Netherlands, which is a highly competitive market, one of the most competitive markets. I think the sense of an acquisition would be to dilute more costs, well, to dilute our costs, the same cost on more volumes. and we could say in some countries in which there is a higher growth it could be emerging markets or it could be in Europe Eastern countries for example it could be to push more growth so depending on the situation of the market that's there but the US in which both ALD and Alice plan have been in the past I don't think that's something open in the in the timeframe of the plan it's a very different market it's mostly fleet management no reserve value risk and the market has consolidated quite a lot in the last years so I don't see really the opportunity to go there successfully in the current condition so I mean it will not be on that front so thanks definitely from JP Morgan I just took very quick questions to follow up on what we have discussed the first one is just going back to used car prices.

Speaker 11

Sorry. So you're assuming stable for ice cars. And that assumption, I mean, you've talked, you mentioned a few items. Is that inflation from chips that you mentioned before? Or, I mean, if you could just explain a little bit, because that's still 80% of the mix. And then my second question is on your initiatives for retail. for the retail segment, where margins are higher. I seem to recall historically you were a little bit more cautious about that. So, I mean, because of competition and pricing, I mean, is it better now? And is that becoming a bit more attractive in terms of profitability?

Philippe CEO

Okay. Maybe I will start by the second question and come back to the first afterwards. it. What we call retail is any customers with a fleet between 1 and 25. So it covers SMEs and it can go to individual. But B2C customers, one car typically, are only 10% of our fleet globally. And I don't think we've got a lot of perspective globally to increase there in B2C. I think we've much more perspective to grow profitably in the SMEs business including the craftsman. I'm saying that because the B2C is typically owned by the captive through their network and the possibility and they typically subsidize the rates and offer financial lease plus maintenance products. So if we if we were to push hard on this I think profitably will be challenging. On the SMEs it's quite different especially when you talk about the LCV because here we're talking about fleets in which the discounts are much lower compared to discounts that you've got on an international key account so profitability can be good and they are a nice part of the business in terms of property I was we're pushing on LCV because you know in LCV what is important for the Kaufman is uptime because well it's a tool to work and if we're able, as Berno was giving the example in the UK, to make sure that downtime is limited, you're giving a real service to the customer that is okay to pay for it, because for it, for him, each day of downtime is a loss of sales and revenue. So to say that in the retail business, we can have accretive returns, and that's the case for the moment, our retail business is accretive in terms of margin compared to the rest of the business, which is logical because in the big international key accounts, you're talking about companies that have professional buyers, make big tenders, and our scale help us to be competitive or make money, but there is more possibility of profitability with the SMEs and the 1 to 25 retail business. The first question was about the used car again, so in our price scenario, if you remember world. Just a reminder, so we sell today, 2026, around 12-13% BEV in used car sales. We sell around 10% of PHEV, and the rest is divided between diesel, gasoline, and the HEV hybrid vehicle, hybrid but not PHEV. So that's the three components of what you have, so it's around a bit less than 70% for IC. Our price scenario has been and remains maybe with a nuance due to the Middle East war that in the coming years the price of IC cars, be it in new vehicles and the used cars, should slightly go up and we have an assumption that on the BEV, the prices, be it on the new vehicles and used cars, will be declining relatively fast. That's the assumption that we've taken, which are linked on the BEV to the fact that there is harsh competition coming from the Chinese that come with a technological advantage and put a lot of pressure on the price in the market. That's the reason why we have taken this assumption and we think it's correct for the coming years. On the ICE, there was one question just previously about measures of European Union on BV and PHEV, but on the ICE, it's not where the Chinese are traditionally performing. Their technology is excellent on BV and PHEV, but not traditionally on ICE and they don't invest a lot. So it means that's where the legacy car makers can still make money and that's where they've got more opportunity to push the price up and they need to do it because they're a super challenge on the BV. So if they want to be profitable they need to keep some profitability somewhere. So that's the reason why we think that on the ICE there will be more opportunity. On top of that, from a used car perspective, you've got the obsolescence between a used car, IC, and a new vehicle. It's not that much and as car makers do not have invest heavily now in gasoline and diesel, the pace of progress will not be that big. So we think it should be helpful for the IC. And last, on the ICs are still export markets because here we are most of us Europeans, but traditionally some IC cars are exported to emerging markets closer to Europe, which are not electrified at all, and that will continue to sustain the demand for used car IC. I hope it helps you to understand the dynamics.

Operator

So we had a question in the middle.

Philippe Bouchard Analyst — Jefferies

Yes, thank you. Philippe Bouchard, Jefferies. You mentioned at some point in discussion autonomous cars, and I was curious about the impact. On the one hand, on ADAS, assisted driving, how is that affecting, positively or negatively, the cost of insurance? Arguably, cars are safer. They should be cheaper to insure, but I'm not sure. They're also more expensive to repair. The other part is on robotaxis. I think that's going to be potentially a segment that grows maybe in the U.S. before Europe. But how do you see AVEN's involvement in that? Would you fund the fleet of robotaxis? That's relatively simple. So would you see a role in maintaining all the labor that exists around robotaxis? You may get rid of the driver, but you need to maintain fleets, and it's hard to scale up those fleets. I'm curious to have your thoughts on that.

Philippe CEO

Okay. I will start with the robotaxi. I think on the autonomous vehicle, the robotaxi will be the first to develop. And in fact, you were mentioning the U.S., but we've got in China a number of cities in which the robotaxis are already implemented, and it seems to be providing a good service to customers. So this is coming in Europe. In fact, there are some tests here in London and in a few cities. What is interesting is the companies that develop autonomous vehicles come to us. And we start to engage discussions, which means they see us as adding value. Hell, they will not come to us. basically for fleet management and also for the financing and both go together. What we see is every actor in the value chain tend to specialize on its part. So you've got the OEM that design cars that are fit for autonomous vehicle. You've got the suppliers that develop the technology for autonomous vehicle. Some companies do both, but not a lot. We've got basically Tesla that is doing both. A few other ones, but among all the car makers, it will be more an exception. So they divide that. And after that, you've got the companies that get in touch with the customers to find the customers for the robotaxi, and they specialize to have the app that we all use to call a robotaxi in California or in other places. And of that, we have people like us that have an expertise in maintaining the car in fleet management. So we think that this will continue that way. So we don't see a robotaxi and the autonomous vehicle as a threat. We see that more of opportunities because robotaxis will be used at a high usage normally it's when you go to robotaxi you don't need three drivers you just have a car that can run permanently except for maintenance which means that if we finance them the result value should not be high because the asset will be used at max so that's the reason why we think that first we've got a clear role on fleet management there and second on the residual value topic I don't think it's it's an issue but to be developed that's the reason why I've put that in the third pillar because for the moment I don't think it will be a 27 28 see well significant volumes but it's important to prepare for the future the first questions, sorry Philippe, it was insurance ADAS and insurance yeah well if we look at the number of accidents in Europe or in the US in the last decades it's a permanent improvement which I think is very good for our society on the other hand the cost of insurance has not evolve that favorably, and maybe you all suffer that pain personally, except if you lose your car with events, which you should do. And the reason being that the cost of the technology embedded in the cars tend to increase, so the frequency of events has decreased, but the cost of events has tended to increase, which has maintained a business in insurance that is quite attractive to companies like us.

Operator

Peter, one more question.

Peter Blaustein Analyst

Thank you for the opportunity. One last question. Listening to the presentation today, it strikes me, Philippe, that you're arguing that scale is actually rising in importance in this industry. You highlighted technology spend as a rising fixed cost, but you also highlighted further procurement gains, and I would highlight also So cost of capital coming down, which has been a fantastic competitive point. You've also discussed, and the discussions referenced, basically OEMs under a lot of pressure, much more pressure in Europe than probably they've ever seen. So I guess could you talk about do you expect further consolidation in the industry, and does the 14% to 16% target incorporate further consolidation, or is that upside? and if there isn't consolidation why why wouldn't there be consolidation going forward given the trends you've highlighted thank you well so consolidation has started as we were saying it's a compared to five years ago it's it's now a reality and I think it will continue because a number of players have burnt themselves with original values.

Philippe CEO

You know a few years ago when I was in the auto industry I was running financial services and there were dealer groups that were saying I'm going to develop my own financial services. Some have tried, been leasing, and they have discovered the hard way that not being a pure player is not easy because it's not a business that is that easy to operate. And to be a pure player managing that along with people totally dedicated has value. On top of that, diversity of geographies, diversifying our risk between a big number of brands, a big number of models, a big number of geographies is helping. And that we can see that if we look only at 2026, we've got places where our BVs used cars are profitable now, which was not the case six months ago. Places where it's still not profitable. I see evolution has been different so this diversification that I've mentioned and that is linked to scale has value so being a pure player and diversification of risk are two key components and I think that will lead progressively to more consolidation which doesn't mean that you cannot have some small niche player on a very specialized item and there are some niche players but very often they've got a ceiling in terms of growth because they've got issues with funding and they've got issues with this concentration of risk. And we've not seen this very niche player growing very fast. Regularly you see some actors, I can think about one actor in Italy that grew very fast and apparently there are rumors that they are for sale because well they had a hard time with the residual values so that's the reason why I think there will be a consolidation and consolidation should be helpful for pricing but we don't be surprised on the plan on that. There was a question over there from the gentleman.

Reg Watson Analyst — ING

Hi Reg Watson from ING. I think one of the messages I've taken away from presentation today is that the next three years are going to represent a period of navigating significant change in the industry, and I think part of the disappointment that was evident in the share price this morning was that perhaps the growth wasn't coming through in a way shareholders would expect. Do you believe that once you've navigated this change and the industry moves to 100% BV, that we'll be sitting here having this discussion in three years' time, and you'll be perhaps targeting higher levels of growth, that's the first question. Second question is, having used the morning between your press release and the discussion now, plugging your targets into the model, it suggests you're going to generate about 1.5 billion in excess capital over and above the 12.5% core equity tier one requirement. Is that a number you recognize and will return to shareholders? as it seems reasonable, given that you've done a $450 million buyback this year. So $500 million a year for the next three years, why not?

Philippe CEO

Okay, on the excess capital, I will leave Patrick answer, and I will answer the first question. For me, it makes absolute sense to think that growth will be superior at the end of the plan, and afterwards, when we talk again within two or three years, we talk about more growth. It makes absolute sense because I'm convinced, I was saying, that gradually we'll talk about a residual value risk on BV that is similar to what we had during decades with ICE. There is no reason that it changes when the acceptance of the used car of the customers becomes similar because people understand that, well, see that charging time has improved, improved, that range has improved, that they can't find that the infrastructure in Europe has increased, why would they go, why wouldn't they go for a BV? And that's exactly what we've seen in the last six months with the oil price raising. So this is a sense of history, so the answer to your question is a definite yes.

Patrick CFO

And I will let Patrick answer to the second question that was, or the first one that was about cash capital you mentioned if I understood well an amount of 1.5 billion so we said we would be returning excess capital to shareholders as we've been doing for the past two years probably a bit south of the amount you mentioned because you need also to take into account that we mentioned a regular payout dividend ratio of 50 to 60 which is an increase to the 50 we had before but it's mostly fine-tuning so we close to five or so maybe a few last more questions so from shots to keep you longer just one last one on SRTs I understand that your stance hasn't changed it while some of your competitors are more open so wanted to understand your thoughts on this particular topic thank you thank you so in SRTs indeed the stance has not really changed we look at potential market transaction on that for the time being the amount of margin we are supposed to give away to generate the transaction is superior to the to the minimum level we are ready to do and don't forget to also too many to to have in mind that when we look at SRT we want to have a transaction which translate the risk not only on the leasing but also on the residual values because why that at some point will be a balance sheet with only residual value so much more much riskier in effect so all this together makes it that there can be opportunity in the future we are not at this point yet but this is something we track regularly to check opportunities well thank you very much it's five o'clock so we are right on time we have some drinks upstairs if you want to join for for last few words thank you very much

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