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IPCO 243.4000 SEK -2.80%
IPCO · International Petroleum Corp.
243.4000 SEK -7.0000 (-2.80%) At close · Oct 6
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Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Concluded Feb 10, 2026 Audio replay
Feb 10, 2026 23:30 6 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
23:30
Sources
2 artifacts

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23:30 Audio

Okay, so welcome everyone to the IPC 2025 year-end update presentation. My name is William Lundin. I'm the President and CEO, and along with me is Christophe Nergarian, the CFO, as well as Rebecca Gordon, our SVP of Investor Relations and Corporate Planning. I'll begin with some of the highlights, and then Christophe will touch on our financial performance in 2025. So this presentation update is really focused largely on our 2025 results, will be quite efficient overall, and our 2026 forward-looking business plans will be covered later on today during our CMD presentation. presentation. So jumping into the highlights for the year for the fourth quarter as well as 2025 overall is a really strong year for international petroleum. Our Q4 production average was 45.6 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and we're very pleased to finish with a full year production average of 44.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day which is near the top end of our guidance range which was 43 to 45 000 boes per day the q4 and annual operating costs achieved was 17.40 and 17.80 per barrel of oil equivalent respectively largely in line with the forecast range of usd 18 to 19 dollars per boe for the full year we're really thrilled to have delivered first steam at year-end 2025 for the Blackrod Phase 1 development project, approximately a quarter earlier than originally guided when the project was sanctioned in the beginning of 2023. The full-year capital expenditure for IPC, inclusive of decommissioning, was $344 million, which was in line with our guidance of $340 million USD. The Blackrod Phase 1 development The development remains on budget with $228 million of growth capital incurred in 2025 and a cumulative spend of $820 million spent on the Phase 1 development out of the total $850 million budget from the time of sanction, again in early 2023. The company generated robust operating cash flow of $259 million in operating cash flow. When taking into account the full growth CapEx, our free cash flow was minus $153 million for the year. So both of those metrics were settling in slightly ahead of our latest guidance. On the heels of our major Blackrod spend program, our net debt number stands at $484 million at the end of 2025. We did elect to refinance our $450 million of bonds in late 2025. That closed in October, which extended the maturity to late 2030. That was a prudent undertaking by the company, given the favorable conditions in the debt capital markets. in addition ipc has access 250 million cad rcf in canada this gives us good liquidity access as we enter into the inflection year of 2026 with material cash flow growth expected from black rod upon it ramping up later in 2026 and into the years beyond that so the hedges that we implemented in 2025 they served as a net benefit to the company mainly driven from the headline benchmark oil price swaps that we had on brent and wti very pleased there are no material hse incidents recorded in 2025 and we issued our sixth annual sustainability report in august last year share buyback so major achievement for the company to return back to the original share count in 2025 relative to inception thanks to fulfilling our 2024-2025 NCIB program where we bought 7.7 million shares representing an approximate 6.5% absolute reduction in our shares outstanding. One of the core quality characteristics of the IPC portfolio is our low decline production. As shown on the slide on the bottom left, the company has a really excellent track record of delivering within or ahead of guidance and 2025 was another year of just that with full year average production of 44.9 000 BOEs per day. Some of the short cycle sustaining activity we successfully executed last year at Onion Lake Thermal and the Birtam Field in Malaysia gave us a nice boost in production midway through 2025. Again our operating costs were stable with the full year outturn settling at $17.80 per BOE, slightly below guidance mainly due to cheaper energy input costs in Canada and also slightly benefited from the higher production relative to the mid-case estimate assigned at CMD 2025. Strong production and cost discipline combined with a full year average oil price of $69 Brent translated into operating cash flow of 259 million dollars for the year this is a great result considering at cmd we expected a mid to midpoint ocf of 245 million dollars at 75 brent and the re-guided ocf forecast for q3 2025 as shown on the rights part of this slide was between 245 and 255 million usd ocf in q4 was $63 million. You can see the oil price for Q4 was lower than the annual average Brent at $64 per barrel Brent for Q4 and we also saw a slightly wider Brent to WTI differential of $5. However, the WTI to WCS discount remained tight throughout the year, settling in at around $11. The 2025 capital program was successfully delivered with $344 million spent. Recall at Q3 2025 we announced the schedule acceleration on the Blackrod phase one project with first steam to be delivered by year-end 2025 as opposed to Q1 2026. With that we decided to bring forward the drilling activity for the final pad at Blackrod and re-guided our capex to $340 million from 320. So that drilling activity has gone very well and will continue into 2026. So just shy of $230 million of Blackrod Phase 1 growth capital was spent in 2025, again bringing the total to $820 spent in the project since the beginning of 2023. The project remains on budget to deliver within the $850 million growth capital budget to First Oil, which is expected in Q3, 2026. And the other Blackrod spend of 26 million dollars in 2025 was spent on capitalized operations as well as resource maturation works as we transition from build to startup operating related expenditures will rise as planned and be reclassified to opex upon oil production coming from the commercial development and the rest of the capital and decommissioning program was delivered in line with forecast and mainly being the onion lake thermal infill program and burt burtam drilling plus work over campaign. For the free cash flow, similar to the operating cash flow, our 2025 CMD pricing outlook assumed Brent between $65 and $85 per barrel. Following the continuous downward pressure we saw on prices throughout the year, the Q3 pricing guidance was adjusted to $55 to $65 Brent for the remainder of 2025. Final free cash flow pre-blackrod expenditure was $103 million dollars and post all expenditures was minus 153 million dollars slightly ahead of the latest q3 guidance and to note relative to the cmd free cash flow guidance in addition to the revised capex i explained on the prior slide we also opportunistically called our bonds which was not in the base case assumption for 2025 so notwithstanding those two movements our final FCF would have settled closer to the middle of the CMD-FCF guidance. On the share repurchase front, the anti-dilution measures continued in 2025 with the fulfillment of our 2024-2025 normal course issuer bid program, which resulted in IPC cancelling around 6.5% of our shares outstanding. We now have less shares outstanding compared to that of the amount at inception for the company. and the portfolio growth enhancements you see four and a half times on production 18 times on 2p reserves significant add on the reserve life index and in excess of a billion barrels of contingent resources added and multiple higher on net asset value it's really remarkable what's taking place in the company through the course of the last nine years since we've existed so 77 million shares have been repurchased in aggregate since inception an average price of 79 sec per share or 11 CAD per share, which is well below half of our current share price. So that's translated into significant value creation for our smart long-standing shareholders. I'll pass it to Christophe to touch on the financial highlights.

Thank you, Will. Good morning, everyone. Very happy to be here for this fourth quarter results. As mentioned by Will, the production was very strong during this fourth quarter and we averaged for the whole year just at the high end of our production guidance at 44.5 thousand blows a day of oil equivalent. The oil prices were a bit lower in the fourth quarter, below $65 Brent, but with operating costs overall under control at $18.4 per BUE for the quarter and below $18 for the whole year, we generated very strong cash flows overall. So an operating cash flow of 63 million for the quarter and 260 million for the full year. Very happy to report again the strong delivery around our investment program. This is the 2025 was the second largest investment year for IPC since inception. uh we we dedicated 340 million u.s dollars to our investment overall uh during during the year and more than 228 or 228 million to the phase one at uh at blackrod so this is really we're turning a corner and by the end of 2025 we we have spent 820 million u.s dollars at blackrod phase one and So we really only have a small amount left to complete and reach first oil in 2026. The free cash flow was negative at 28.6 million 150 for the whole year. The net debt stands at 484 million at the end of the year. But we still have large access to liquidity through the revolving credit facility with our Canadian supportive banks. Realized prices you can see that for the whole year the Brent averaged 69 WTI 65. I think what really catches the eyes here is the very tight WTI WCS differential we enjoyed in 2025 at minus 11 it was close to a record low for the for the Canadian market and so of course that translated into profitable business across the board profitable activity in in France where we're selling our crude on parity with Brent in Malaysia we continue to enjoy a strong premium up and above the dated Brent on that subject very happy to report that that trend is continuing because we continue to see very high premiums for all Malaysian cargos in the first quarter of 2026. In Canada, we're selling on parity or very close to parity with the WCS, which was $48 in the fourth quarter, $48 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $54 for the whole year on average. gas prices remain relatively weak unfortunately as we mentioned previously the storage levels are reasonably high in in Canada and in in Alberta in particular and you see that the the decoupling of the Canadian gas prices with the US gas prices is continuing now the good news is still gas prices were reasonably higher in the in the fourth quarter it's traditional for the for the winter months but still that was a good outcome for the quarter the second good piece of news is that the lng canada plant is now running its second train and so progressively we're expecting that that second train to alleviate the congestion at the gas storage in canada so the the gas prices are not strong yet but we hope that the situation over time is is going to continuously improve looking at our operating cash flows and EBITDA year on year of course as you would expect with lower oil prices in 2025 and lower production or operating cash flows and EBITDA in 2025 were lower. Now I think it's important to flip this chart on its head and when you look ahead as we'll be talking about this afternoon for the production range in 2026 we are finally going to increase production in 2026 and that's going to further increase in 2027. So even if you can see here cash flows lower in 25 compared to 2024 we are turning a corner here and you can expect progressively with higher production and hopefully higher oil prices in the in the years to come our ability to generate stronger operating cash flows again the operating costs remain relatively flat overall for the year we were below the guidance of 18 to 19 dollar per barrel or for equivalent slightly higher costs in in the fourth quarter including because we had two liftings two cargos in Malaysia but overall the cost remain under control the net back you can see here that it's been relatively stable whether you're looking at the fourth quarter for the full year with 42 dollar that includes obviously gas prices but with 42 dollar per barrel of revenues and 18 dollar per barrel of operating cost the the gross margin is around 15 US dollar per barrel and operating cash flow was 15 dollar per barrel of netback in the fourth quarter and close to 16 dollar per barrel of netback for the full year. We increased our net debt during this year which was really the result of the last high spending high investment here at Blackroad phase one and the share buyback program which we completed in 2025. So we generated 260 million US dollars of operating cash flow which fully covered our investment in black road phase one but not the non black road capex together with 100 million of share buyback we increased our net debt by around 280 million us dollars the the cost overall as i mentioned remain under control certainly with the operating cost per barrel at around 18 dollar per boe you can see here that the the net financial incomes have been very stable quarter to quarter a bit higher in the fourth quarter as a result of the bond refinancing. The cash cost of that bond refinancing was around 18 million US dollars. The G&A remained relatively low at around one dollar per barrel. Looking at the financial results here in this a graphic format you can see revenues of 686 million us dollars for the whole year generating a cash margin of 260 million and gross profit so net of essentially the depletion and depreciation a gross profit of 128 million us dollars and net profit of 29 million us dollars for the year The balance sheet is interesting, there's a clear rebalancing from the cash we had, we had 246 million US dollars of cash on the balance sheet, only 7 at the end of 25 and of course all this cash was invested into our assets and you can see that the value for oil and gas properties increased from 1.5 billion to close to 1.8 billion. and essentially this is in relation with the black road phase one investment obviously the balance sheet remains strong and in good shape our leverage was around two times at the end of the year we refinanced the bonds leveraging on some very good market conditions in at the end of september and early october 2025 happy to report that we have still full access to the Canadian revolving credit facility only 50 million was outstanding at the end of last year and we continue to have very good relationship with our Canadian banks and lots of support on that on that front so we're good from a liquidity perspective in terms of hedging i think some of the of course the the the teams on the ground uh performed very very well in 2025 the production uh they delivered was very strong at the high end of the the range but of course uh during 2025 were able to place some some very good hedges which clearly helped the financial performance of the fourth quarter and the whole year as a whole and so we generated hedging gains on our WTI hedges, on our Brent hedges, and on our gas hedges. And we lost money that was on the protection we entered into at the beginning of the year on the differential and lost a bit of money on the FX as well. But overall, our hedges contributed positively to our financial performance in Q4 and for the whole year 2025. And you will see this afternoon, we'll be talking about some of the further opportunistic hedges we've placed for 2026.

Excellent. Thanks, Christophe. So to conclude with the summary for the 2025 highlights, a strong year again. We spent $344 million USD. $228 million out of that was spent on the Phase 1 development project at the black rod asset. Production was 45.6 thousand BOEs per day for Q4 and average 44.9 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day for the full year right near the top end of our guidance range for 2025. Operating costs were $18.40 for Q4 and the full year 2025 unit cost was $17.80 cents for the year. Good cash flow generation again at 259 million dollars in operating cash flow was generated from the business and taking into account all the growth capital expenditures 153 minus 153 in free cash flow for the year. Again we prudently refinanced our bonds at the end of 2025 extending maturity now to 2030 net debt is at 484 million dollars as at the end of last year and starting into 2026 very pleased given we are the operator at all of our assets there are no material incidents that took place safety or environmental and um that's also a big shout out to to the teams at black rod where there hasn't been any material incidents no lti's since the beginning of the development activities started in 2023. Really impressive safety performance by the teams. And of course, a huge achievement there in executing and getting first steam ahead of the original guidance at the end of 2025. Share repurchases, we fulfilled our NCIB program, 7.7 million shares cancelled out. We now have less shares outstanding compared to that of when we began life. So strong year and very excited to update to the market as well with our forward looking plans later on today. We can now transition into Q&A which can be submitted over the web and with that I'll look towards Rebecca to see if we have some questions trickling in on the system.

Rebecca Gordon Head of Investor Relations

Well we do will but unfortunately they're all questions relating to our forward guidance for this afternoon, so if people don't mind I think what we'll do is we'll hold on to the questions, we'll ask them as part of the CMD later on and so we'll disclose all the information this afternoon relating to your questions here. So thanks Theodore, Samuel and Rob. We'll update you this afternoon. Thank you.

Okay, thanks very much.

Rebecca Gordon Head of Investor Relations

Thanks everyone.

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