Ubs AG 6-K, filed Nov 1, 2024
Ubs AG (AMUB)
6-K
2024-11-01
For: 2024-09-30
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Added on
April 06, 2026
About this 6-K
Ubs AG filed this 6-K on November 1, 2024.
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
_________________
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date: November 1, 2024
UBS Group AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-36764
UBS AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive offices)
Commission File Number: 1-15060
Indicate by check mark whether the registrants file or will file annual reports under cover of Form
20-F or Form 40-
F.
Form 20-F
☒
☐
This Form 6-K consists of the transcripts of the 3Q24 Earnings call remarks and Analyst Q&A, which
appear immediately following this page.
1
Third quarter 2024 results
30 October 2024
Speeches by
Sergio P. Ermotti
, Group Chief Executive Officer, and
Todd Tuckner
,
Group Chief Financial Officer
Including analyst Q&A session
Transcript.
Numbers for slides refer to the third quarter 2024 results presentation. Materials and a webcast
replay are available at www.ubs.com/investors
Sergio P. Ermotti
Slide 3 – Key messages
Thank you, Sarah and good morning, everyone.
Our strong financial performance in the quarter, with a net profit of 1.4 billion and an underlying PBT of 2.4
billion, together with our year-to-date results, demonstrates the power of our unique client franchises,
diversified business model and global scale.
It also represents continued progress on the integration. This brings us two important benefits.
First, it increases our confidence level in achieving our short- and medium-term financial targets.
Second, it allows us to offer the full range of services of the combined bank, and to stay even closer to clients.
We are better positioned than ever to help them navigate a market background that, while constructive, still
exhibits periods of high volatility and dislocation.
Our commitment to serving clients is reflected in a 9% year-on-year increase in underlying revenues, with
notable strength in the Americas and APAC.
Invested assets across the Group increased by 15% year-on-year to 6.2 trillion. This shows that our wealth and
asset management clients continue to value the capabilities we provide across our advice platform and the way
in which we consistently innovate to meet their needs.
One excellent example is the positive client and General Partner reaction to the launch of our Unified Global
Alternatives unit, which has created a top-5 player in Alternatives.
In Switzerland, while we faced the expected headwinds on Net Interest Income, we continued to deliver on our
commitment to acting as a safe and reliable provider of credit to the economy, with around 35 billion Swiss
francs of loans granted or renewed in the quarter.
Within the Investment Bank, our investments in Global Markets supported robust performance in Equities,
notably in the Americas.
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And in Global Banking, we maintained our momentum in Advisory as we outperformed the global M&A fee
pools for the third consecutive quarter. As importantly, our M&A pipeline continues to build.
Turning back to the integration. The finalization of our preparation work during the quarter allowed us, in the
last two weeks of October, to successfully achieve another milestone. We moved all of the client accounts and
data in Luxembourg and Hong Kong onto UBS platforms.
The next significant milestones for 2024 are the client account migrations in Singapore and Japan, expected by
year-end. We will then kick-off the next phase of Swiss migrations in the second quarter of 2025, positioning
us well to enhance the client experience and unlock further cost reductions towards the end of 2025 and into
2026.
In Non-core and Legacy, we continue to simplify our operations through book closures and the
decommissioning of applications. This has supported the significant year-to-date reductions in costs.
And thanks to our active wind-down efforts, the natural runoff profile of the remaining positions is already in
line with our 2026 risk-weighted asset ambition. At the same time, we remain focused on identifying
opportunities to further improve the rundown profile, but will continue to do so without compromising
economic value creation.
The overall disciplined progress on the integration, including the completion of the legal entity mergers, has
significantly mitigated the execution risk of the Credit Suisse acquisition.
This, combined with the strong performance of our businesses, has allowed us to generate capital well ahead
of our plan and guidance.
As we prudently assess future capital requirements, business plans and profitability for the coming years, we
feel it is important our current Group capital position better reflects excess capital available for growth and
returns to shareholders.
Consequently, we have voluntarily accelerated the phase-out of the remaining transitional capital adjustments
agreed with our regulator, which we had disclosed upon the closing of the acquisition.
This brings our CET1 capital ratio to 14.3%, more in line with our guidance while maintaining a strong capital
position and a balance sheet for all seasons.
This buffer was never considered for distribution and its removal has no impact on our ability to execute on the
ongoing 2024 share buyback, nor on our medium-term ambitions for dividends and buybacks.
As already communicated, we will provide more detail on our 2025 capital return plans, including the continued
execution of buybacks, with our fourth-quarter results.
Our ambition for 2026 capital returns to exceed pre-acquisition levels is unchanged, subject to our assessment
of any proposed requirements from Switzerland’s ongoing review of its capital regime.
I want to emphasize that our focus extends beyond meeting the current needs of our clients, executing on the
integration and delivering on our short-term plans.
We are also preparing for the future by continuing to invest in our people, products and capabilities to
strengthen our client offerings and position our businesses for long-term growth.
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This includes investing in our industry-leading cloud infrastructure as well as our expertise in artificial intelligence
and automation. This will accelerate Generative AI adoption, increasing efficiency and effectiveness.
One example of the many ways we are leveraging AI is through Microsoft Copilot. With 50,000 licenses being
rolled out between now and the end of the first quarter, we are implementing the largest deployment of Copilot
within the global financial services industry to date.
Another example is Red, a proprietary new AI assistant that provides 20,000 employees in Switzerland, Hong
Kong, and Singapore with easy access to UBS product information and investment research.
In the Investment Bank, we are piloting a proprietary AI algorithm that researches and compiles potential merger
and acquisition buy-side targets.
In these, and the many other AI deployments that are underway across the entire firm, we are focused on
responsible AI as we provide our people with tools that will help them better manage their businesses.
Even as new technology is changing the way we work, our people will remain the most important driver of our
success.
That is why I am particularly pleased with the positive results from a recent employee survey which, by the way,
is an important testament to the progress we have made on the integration.
84% say they are proud to work for UBS, and 83% would recommend UBS as an employer – both well above
industry benchmarks.
We have achieved a lot over the last 18 months as we are building a stronger and even safer version of UBS
that all of our key stakeholders can be proud of.
But there is no room for complacency. We are just about halfway to restoring pre-acquisition levels of profits
and returns on capital and the journey won’t be a straight line.
In the short-term, in addition to seasonality, ongoing global macroeconomic developments, geopolitical
conflicts and the upcoming US elections create uncertainties that are likely to affect investor behavior.
We continue to help clients navigate this environment, and I remain confident in our ability to deliver on our
financial targets as we position UBS for long-term, sustainable growth and remain a pillar of economic support
in the communities where we live and work.
With that, I hand over to Todd.
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Todd Tuckner
Slide 5 – Strong revenue momentum with lower costs driving positive operating leverage
Thank you Sergio, and good morning everyone.
Throughout my remarks, I will refer to underlying results in US dollars unless stated otherwise.
Also, starting today, I compare our performance to the prior-year quarter since we now have fully comparable
year-over-year information for the first time since the Credit Suisse acquisition last year. I continue to offer
sequential insights on balance sheet, net interest income developments, and our progress towards achieving
our gross cost save targets by the end of 2026.
Starting on slide 5. Profit before tax in the quarter increased over two-and-half times to 2.4 billion with strong
operating leverage improvement year-over-year, contributing to a return on CET1 capital of 9.4%.
Total revenues rose by 9% to 11.7 billion driven by momentum in our asset gathering businesses and
Investment Bank. At the same time, operating expenses declined by 4% to 9.2 billion as we continued to
execute on our integration and efficiency plans.
These results also contribute to a strong year-to-date performance, with a 9-month pre-tax profit of 7.1 billion
and a return on CET1 capital of 9.2%.
Slide 6 – 3Q24 net profit 1.4bn, while integration continues at pace
Turning to slide 6, which illustrates our progress in improving profitability over the last year.
The net profit for the quarter was 1.4 billion with an EPS of 43 cents.
As illustrated on the slide, the increase in underlying pre-tax profit was driven by higher revenues paired with
lower costs and CLE.
On a reported basis, PBT was 1.9 billion including 0.7 billion of purchase price allocation adjustments in our
core businesses, and integration-related expenses of 1.1 billion.
Our tax expense in the third quarter was 502 million, representing an effective rate of 26%.
For the fourth quarter, we expect additional revenues from purchase price allocation adjustments of 0.5 billion,
integration-related expenses of 1.2 billion and an effective tax rate of around 35%.
Slide 7 – Underlying operating expenses flat QoQ excluding currency effects
Turning to our quarterly cost update on slide 7.
Operating expenses increased by 2% quarter-on-quarter, and were flat excluding the effects of US dollar
softness against the Swiss franc and pound Sterling, in which we incur substantial personnel costs. When also
excluding increased variable compensation linked to revenues and lower litigation reserve releases, operating
expenses reduced by around 200 million sequentially, or 2%. This was supported by a lower, overall employee
count, which fell sequentially by another fourteen hundred, or 1%, to below 132,000. The total staff count is
down 25 thousand, or 16%, from our 2022 baseline.
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Our underlying cost-income ratio dropped by two points sequentially to 78.5% and has improved by over 10
points compared to the same quarter last year. This performance highlights the substantial progress to date
and outlines the path forward to reach our target ratio of under 70% by the end of 2026.
As in prior years, we expect in 4Q a modest sequential uptick in our operating expenses for select non-personnel
items, including the UK bank levy and regional marketing spend.
Slide 8 – Achieved >50% of gross cost save ambition
Moving on to slide 8. In the third quarter, we achieved 750 million in additional, annualized gross cost saves,
putting us past the halfway mark towards our 13 billion goal.
As expected, the pace of saves moderately slowed this quarter as we continued the intensive work necessary
to effectively dismantle the infrastructure of a former G-SIB. In particular, we completed preparation of the
client account and platform migrations in our Asian wealth franchise and continued readiness efforts relating
to our Swiss booking center - by far our largest - that are planned for next year. This phase of the integration
requires fully staffed teams across regions to minimize client disruption and maintain operational efficiency.
The comparatively smaller saves this quarter are a reflection of these concerted efforts along with higher variable
compensation, FX headwinds and more moderate cost progress in NCL after a year of very strong sequential
achievements.
As we continue our client account and platform migration work across our divisions and regions in the months
ahead, we estimate sequential cost saves to be similarly sized. We expect the pace to pick-up again once this
critical integration phase is complete and we can then fully benefit from decommissioning software, hardware
and data centers, and by unlocking further staff capacity.
By the end of this year, we plan to have delivered around 7.5 billion in annualized gross cost saves versus our
2022 baseline and cumulative integration-related expenses of around 9 billion.
Slide 9 – Strong capital position supporting growth and capital return ambitions
Now to Slide 9, where I unpack our capital position. We ended the third quarter with a CET1 capital ratio of
14.3%, slightly above our guidance of around 14%.
As Sergio highlighted, the sequential decrease this quarter results from our decision to accelerate the phase-
out of the PPA-related transitional capital adjustment, which led to a 65-basis point reduction in our CET1
capital ratio. Without this voluntary acceleration, the ratio at the end of the quarter would have been 14.9%.
As many of you will remember from last year, the acquisition accounting standard required us to fair value all
of Credit Suisse’s assets and liabilities at closing. This purchase price allocation process also resulted in fair value
discounts applied to select Credit Suisse positions, such as fixed-rate Swiss mortgages and certain term note
liabilities, which were driven solely by interest-rate and own credit effects.
Accordingly, these fair value adjustments, totaling to negative 5 billion net of tax effects, were expected to fully
reverse into income, or pull-to-par, over time. Given the temporary nature of these adjustments, we agreed
with our regulator at closing to amortize the resulting capital reduction on a linear basis over a 4-year period.
This shielded our capital from significant accounting-driven volatility, at least during the first phase of the
integration process.
Our decision this quarter to accelerate the phase-out of the residual balance of 3.4 billion reflects the significant
progress we’ve made to date across our integration agenda, including the successful merger of the two parent
banks last quarter. This decision also underscores our confidence moving forward.
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Moreover, by accelerating the phase-out of the transitional capital adjustment on the aforementioned positions,
the remaining PPA discount, like all other pull-to-par revenues, will now fully accrete into our capital in future
periods, reversing the impact seen in this quarter’s results.
Specifically, we expect to recognize total pull-to-par revenues of 6.4 billion over the next several years,
benefitting our net profit, equity, and CET1 capital. Within this, 80% is set to accrete back by the end of 2028,
of which 3 and a half billion by the end of 2026.
Notably, the requirement to fair value the positions subject to the transitional capital adjustment had no bearing
on the Credit Suisse parent bank or its standalone capital position. Hence, it’s important to emphasize that our
decision this quarter is equally neutral to the regulatory capital position of UBS AG, now that the two parent
banks have merged. We expect UBS AG’s standalone, fully-applied CET1 capital ratio to be a strong 13.3%
when we publish our report next week.
A brief update on Basel 3 finalization as we continue to assess the effects of the Swiss implementation on
January 1st. While we’ll present the final details with our 4Q results in February, our latest estimate is that the
RWA impact will be a low single digit percentage of total Group RWA. This is revised down from our prior
guidance of around 5%, and is now expected to reduce our CET1 capital ratio by around 30 basis points upon
implementation next year.
Slide 10 – Balance sheet for all seasons
Now, moving on to Slide 10. While our strong capital position is a key pillar of our strategy, starting this quarter
I offer a more comprehensive picture of our balance sheet and the structural drivers that contribute to making
it a balance sheet for all seasons.
As of the end of the third quarter our balance sheet consisted of 1.6 trillion in total assets, with around 40%
in loan balances. While we continue to optimize the risk profile of exposures inherited with the acquisition of
Credit Suisse, our lending book continues to reflect high credit quality and disciplined risk management.
More than 80% of our loan portfolio consists of mortgages, with an average LTV of around 50%, and fully
collateralized Lombard loans. This quarter our credit-impaired exposure as a percentage of our loan book was
just 73 basis points, and our cost of risk was only 8 basis points.
Assets held at fair value were 494 billion, or around 30% of the total balance sheet. Notably, Level 3 assets
were 16 billion and accounted for less than 1% of our total assets.
Turning to the liability side. Our operations this quarter were funded with 776 billion of deposits and almost
370 billion of well-diversified wholesale funding, spread across currencies and tenors. Our loan-to-deposit ratio
at quarter end was 79%. Throughout the year, we have diligently executed on our funding plan, already having
completed our issuances for 2024 and prefunded some of our 2025 AT1 build.
Finally, tangible equity in the quarter increased by 3.6 billion to 80 billion, mainly driven by quarterly net profits
and other comprehensive income of 2.5 billion. This was partly offset by a net reduction of 0.5 billion for
Treasury shares repurchased as part of our share buyback program. Our tangible book value was 25 dollars and
10 cents per share, reflecting a sequential increase of 5%.
Overall, we continue to operate with a highly fortified and resilient balance sheet with total loss absorbing
capacity of 195 billion, a net stable funding ratio of 127% and an LCR of 199%.
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Slide 11 – Global Wealth Management
Moving to our business divisions, starting with Global Wealth Management on slide 11.
GWM’s pre-tax profit was 1.3 billion, an increase of 30% with strong positive jaws as revenue growth outpaced
expenses by 4 percentage points.
Our performance is showcasing the enduring competitive strengths of our wealth franchise. Enhanced by the
Credit Suisse acquisition, our global scale, diversified model, and cross-divisional capabilities uniquely position
us to capture wallet and seize growth opportunities. The industry trends we see accelerating include legacy and
longevity-based planning needs, geographic wealth migration, and active management among the world’s
wealthiest investors to diversify portfolios and manage risks. These secular growth dynamics play right to our
strengths.
This quarter, within an active market environment characterized by higher volatility and continuing concerns
around geopolitical developments, our clients benefitted from our CIO’s call to remain invested and to position
their portfolios to take advantage of the current market backdrop. This further strengthened our clients’ trust
in our advice and capabilities, and contributed to strong revenue growth in every region.
All regions delivered double-digit PBT growth. Notably, APAC delivered impressive results, more than doubling
last year’s pre-tax profits on a revenue improvement of 13%. Also in the Americas, where invested assets
surpassed the 2 trillion mark, our performance showed notable progress. PBT grew by 11% year-on-year and
by over 30% sequentially, translating into a pre-tax margin of 12%.
In the quarter we delivered 25 billion in net new assets with positive flows across all regions. With net new
assets of nearly 80 billion year-to-date, we remain on track to deliver on our 100 billion NNA ambition for 2024.
Once again, we attracted strong net new assets while continuing to absorb integration-related headwinds,
including the anticipated roll-off of a portion of the fixed term deposits associated with last year’s win-back
campaign, our ongoing work to optimize balance sheet usage and enhance revenue margins, and the residual
tail of client advisors leaving the Credit Suisse platform.
Of the 60 billion in deposit volumes maturing in the quarter, we retained 85% on our platform, including
converting 20% into more profitable mandates, structured products and other liquidity solutions. Managing
this roll-off will remain a short-term priority for us as we expect elevated maturing deposit volumes over the
next two quarters.
Additionally, by remaining focused on improving the efficiency of our financial resources and increasing
profitability on sub-hurdle relationships, our balance sheet optimization efforts have supported incremental
progress in our revenue over RWA margin, bringing it to over 23%, a 3 percentage point increase from a year
ago when we started this work.
Net new fee-generating assets were 15 billion, reflecting strong discretionary mandate sales in all regions with
disciplined pricing supporting stable margins sequentially.
Now, onto GWM’s financials.
Total revenues increased by 7% with higher recurring net fee income and double-digit growth in transactional
revenues, more than offsetting NII headwinds. As I’ve highlighted in the past, a lower interest rate environment
is expected to spur client demand for more advisory solutions, including structured products and alternative
investments, as clients seek to rebalance their cash exposures in search for yield. We also expect clients to re-
engage in lending activities helping to offset some of the NII headwinds.
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Recurring net fee income increased by 9% to 3.2 billion as our invested assets grew to 4.3 trillion, up 16%
year-on-year and 5% sequentially, driven by market growth, FX and net new asset inflows. Mandate
penetration increased to 38%, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago, reflecting the value our clients
see in our advice and solutions supporting their investment objectives.
Transaction-based revenues were 1.1 billion, up 19%, with strong momentum across all regions supported by
the initial reduction in US policy rates. Combined with the announcement of economic stimulus in China, this
made for a constructive trading environment for our clients.
In addition, the successful collaboration between GWM and the IB, and our investments in AI-led sales support
capabilities, allowed us to capture transactional volumes across our expanding product shelf. We saw impressive
growth in structured and cash products, and in alternatives. This continues to be especially notable in APAC
and the Americas, where transactional revenues were up 25% and 23% year-on-year, respectively, and both
up sequentially vs a strong 2Q. We see this momentum continuing into the fourth quarter, while noting
transactional activity typically decreases as we approach year-end.
Net interest income at 1.6 billion was broadly flat sequentially as reinvestment income from longer duration in
our replication portfolios offset expected headwinds from mix shifts.
In the fourth quarter, with 50 basis points of further US dollar rate cuts priced-in, we expect a sequential mid-
single digit percentage drop in NII. This is expected to be driven mainly by headwinds to deposit revenues from
lower rates, while our deposit balances, as mentioned, reflect conversion of fixed-term deposits, in part, into
non-deposit solutions.
Also, as mentioned last quarter, towards the end of the year, we plan to adjust the sweep deposit rates in our
US advisory accounts. The effect of this change on our NII is expected to be minimal in the fourth quarter.
Moreover, lower US dollar rate assumptions also reduce the modeled impact of sweep deposit rate changes on
net interest income in 2025, and likewise would be expected to improve last quarter’s guidance of negative
50 million of PBT annually.
Across GWM, as mentioned last quarter, we continue to initially expect net interest income to trough around
the middle of next year based on current implied forwards. With our 4Q results, and after completing our
planning process, we intend to offer more developed insight into our 2025 expectations for GWM NII.
Operating expenses increased by 3% compared to last year and 1% sequentially. Excluding compensation-
related and currency translation effects, underlying operating expenses dropped by 4% compared to the second
quarter. As highlighted previously, the ongoing client account and platform migration work is expected to be
a significant driver of cost reductions in GWM by the middle of 2025 and into 2026.
Slide 12 – Personal & Corporate Banking (CHF)
Turning to Personal and Corporate Banking on slide 12.
P&C delivered third quarter pre -tax profit of 659 million Swiss francs, down 7%. Revenues decreased by a
similar level, mainly as NII dropped by 11% as the prior -year quarter featured substantially higher Swiss franc
interest rates. Recurring net fee income increased by 5% on higher custody assets, while transaction-based
revenues were down 5% mainly from lower corporate activity, including in trade finance, partly offset by higher
card fees.
NII decreased by 2% sequentially, mainly driven by the effect of the SNB’s second 25 basis point interest rate
cut in June and partly offset by the benefits of our balance sheet optimization efforts, which remain key to
building back returns to pre-acquisition levels.
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This work, which continues to contribute to improved revenues on capital deployed and fixing the funding gap
inherited from Credit Suisse, came at the expense of net new lending outflows of 5.6 billion Swiss francs this
quarter. I would highlight that P&C’s contribution to our commitment in Switzerland to maintain a loan book
of 350 billion Swiss francs was evidenced by around 25 billion in loans granted or renewed during the quarter.
In the fourth quarter, we expect NII to tick down sequentially by a low single-digit percentage both in Swiss
francs and US dollars as the effects of the SNB’s third 25 basis-point rate cut in September are expected to
more than offset improved lending revenues from our re-pricing efforts and lower funding costs. Considering
competitive dynamics in Switzerland as well as the measured pace of accommodation in the Swiss central bank’s
monetary policy, our objective is to protect client deposit balances. Hence, our guidance for the fourth quarter
reflects only a slight increase in deposit beta.
As mentioned last quarter, with Swiss franc interest rates stabilizing by mid next year based on current implied
forwards, we continue to expect net interest income in P&C to trough shortly thereafter. We will offer additional
insights into our 2025 expectations for P&C NII next quarter.
Credit loss expense was 71 million, driven by several positions in our corporate loan book, mainly on the Credit
Suisse platform. For the foreseeable future, we expect CLE to remain at broadly similar levels given the persistent
relative strength of the Swiss franc and some economic softness in the main Swiss export markets, contributing
to an already muted domestic economic outlook.
Operating expenses in P&C were broadly flat year-on-year and down 1% quarter-on-quarter.
Slide 13 – Asset Management
On slide 13, pre-tax profit in Asset Management increased by 46% to 237 million with revenues up 13%. Our
asset management franchise is making visible progress in advancing its strategy of offering differentiated and
tailored client solutions at scale. Complementing this is a high level of focus on streamlining the operational
backbone of the division as well as exiting non-strategic businesses.
Results in the quarter include gains of 72 million from disposals, largely related to the residual portion of the
sale of our Brazilian real estate fund management business. Excluding these gains, Asset Management’s
revenues were up by 3% year-on-year.
Net management fees were broadly flat as higher average invested assets and the effect of a revaluation of a
real estate fund offset ongoing margin compression from clients rotating into lower-margin products.
Performance fees were 46 million compared to 18 million in the prior year quarter driven by higher revenues in
our hedge fund businesses and Fixed Income.
Net new money in the quarter was positive 2 billion, with strong inflows in Money Markets and positive
contribution from our China JVs, more than offsetting outflows in Equities.
Operating expenses were 4% higher as cost reductions from lower headcount were more than offset by higher
personnel and litigation expenses.
Slide 14 – Investment Bank
On to our Investment Bank’s performance on slide 14.
The IB continued to build revenue momentum leveraging the investments in teams and capabilities acquired
with Credit Suisse and delivered another strong set of results with pre-tax profit of 377 million in the quarter.
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Revenues increased by 29% to 2.5 billion with Global Markets posting its best third quarter on record and
supported by solid performance in Global Banking.
Banking revenues increased by 21% to 555 million as we leveraged the increased breadth of our franchise and
solidified growth achieved over the last several quarters. Our investments in talent and integrated coverage
teams are paying off as we have gained meaningful market share in a number of key sectors.
Regionally, APAC delivered its best third quarter on record in M&A, more than doubling total revenues from
the prior year quarter, while Banking revenues in the US were up by around 20%.
In Advisory we delivered top line growth of 13% and further market share gains in M&A. Capital Markets
revenues rose by 28% with increases across all product groups.
Looking ahead, we remain encouraged by the strength of our pipeline, which should support our performance
into 2025. We also maintain a top-ten ranking across the street in announced M&A volume.
Revenues in Markets increased by 31% to 1.9 billion, driven by client activity and the strength of our expanded
franchise. We saw increases across all regions, and notably in the Americas, where revenues were up by around
60%.
Equities revenues were up by 33%, supported by higher constructive volatility. Our Equity Derivatives and Cash
Equities businesses each delivered their best third quarter on record.
FRC was up by 26% with double-digit growth in FX and rates, as we benefitted from increased client activity,
albeit against a softer comparative quarter a year ago.
Operating expenses rose by 2%, and were broadly flat excluding currency effects.
Slide 15 – Non-core and Legacy
Moving to Slide 15.
Non-core and Legacy’s pre-tax loss in the quarter was 333 million, with 262 million in revenues, primarily from
position exit gains in securitized products partly offset by net losses in macro.
Excluding litigation, operating expenses were down by over 40% year-on-year, and up 1% sequentially.
In the fourth quarter, we expect NCL to generate a pre-tax loss broadly in line with the guidance we provided
with our 2Q24 earnings.
Slide 16 – Non-core and Legacy run-down ahead of schedule
Now onto Slide 16. In the quarter NCL reduced RWA and LRD by 5 and 11 billion, respectively. Since the second
quarter last year, NCL has freed up almost 6 billion of capital by reducing its RWA by around half and its LRD
by two thirds. It also halved its cost base in that time.
This progress to-date puts us nearly a year ahead of our de-risking schedule, including closing over 50% of the
14 thousand books we started with. By the end of 2026 we aim to have less than 5% remaining.
As the chart illustrates, solely by letting the portfolio naturally run-off, we would already broadly meet our
current ambition to reduce NCL to 5% of Group RWA by 2026.
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This impressive result is testament to the skillful work delivered by the NCL team over the past 5 quarters. After
completing our planning process, we’ll provide an update to our NCL ambitions through 2026 with our fourth
quarter results in February.
Recapping the quarter, we showcased the strengths and long-term strategic advantages of our franchise by
building on positive client momentum and delivering strong underlying profitability.
We continued to make impressive progress in integrating Credit Suisse as we’ve successfully embarked on the
next critical phase of our integration journey.
With a strong capital and liquidity position, and a balance sheet for all seasons, we remain well positioned to
continue delivering for our clients and generating attractive shareholder returns while investing for our future.
With that, let’s open for questions.
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Analyst Q&A (CEO and CFO)
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Yes, thanks for taking my questions. The first question is on buyback in 2025. The second quarter stage, you
were not commenting yet on buyback. Clearly, that changed at a recent conference and reconfirming this,
Sergio, today as well. I just wanted to understand what the thinking is in terms of changing the buyback
view in 2025 and how that fits into the regulatory regime changes that might come in the future. And in
that context, if you could just also indicate if you will make any comments with the full-year results, as you
will give us a buyback for 2025, how that fits with regulatory changes, especially I’m referring to the parent
bank capital issue?
And then the second question is on US wealth management. Are you seeing a peak in yield-seeking from
depositors at this point? And we're hearing from US peers that there are some stabilization in sweep
accounts. So I'm just trying to understand how lower rates will impact sweep, but also potentially impact
loan growth, as I can see it's flattish in the quarter.
Sergio P. Ermotti
Okay. Thanks, Kian. Well, look, if I – if you go back into our remarks, my remarks, in the past, I always
clearly stated that starting a buyback program in 2024 would be at the start of a journey that would not be
a stop-and-go kind of strategy. So I always, and we always, flagged the fact that in 2025 we would have a
share buyback. Now we are reiterating that guidance by saying that we do expect in the early part of 2025,
as we present Q4 results, to tell, like we did this year, the amount of ambitions or the size of the ambitions
we have for 2025. So in that sense, I think that's – I just – we are just reiterating our commitments, also in
respect of our ambitions for 2026 is that, of course, they are subject to requirements – potential new
requirements in Switzerland, and then we will assess. But our ambition is to have similar returns we had
before the acquisition by 2026.
Now for 2025, early 2025, your question, are we going to have more clarity? I don't know. We are not
really in control of the timing. I think, I suspect, that we won't be able give a lot of guidance on that – in
that sense, because, as you know, we are still going through technical discussions. The consultation process
probably is gonna start late this year or even in the early part of next year and is gonna to take a few– few
months, so it's very unlikely that in February we will be able to give much more clarity on this topic. And so
this is very unlikely then to affect 2025 capital returns ambitions.
And, you know, that also implies that there is no change in terms of the parent bank. As you saw, our
parent bank, our overall capital position it's very strong. And also, when you look at our parent bank capital
at 13.3% is very solid, is already on a fully applied basis and with a methodology on how we look at
valuation of assets and subsidiaries, that is quite conservative definitely compared to what we saw in the
past.
13
Todd Tuckner
Hi, Kian. Regarding your second question, in terms of lower rates and impact on our US wealth business. So
first on the loan side, absolutely I would expect across the division that lower rates will – and I made this
comment earlier in my remarks – you know, should spur additional lending opportunities across the
division, including in the US. On the deposit side, in particular on sweeps, so first I'd say a couple of things,
that we are seeing sweep deposits continue to taper. But in the quarter, we did have smaller outflows, so
still about a billion of outflows. You know, I'd say that some of the market dynamics that I see in this
regard, you know, one is that we're not yet pricing sweeps higher versus maybe some of the peer set are
doing.
Secondly, you know, we have a higher percentage of assets with ultra-high net worth. And for sure, that
asset band tends to have a much lower percentage of AuM in sweeps. So that's going to be a market
dynamic for us that will always weigh on, you know, that, that sensitivity, just given that with a more high
net worth client base where there's more sensitivity in terms of deposit pricing, you know, naturally then
there'll be lower balances and sweeps. That said, you know, I expect as rates come down that we will see –
we will continue to see sweeps balance taper, if not starting to grow.
Kian Abouhossein, JP Morgan
Thank you.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Yes, so good morning, everybody. Just two questions from me. So 2025 profitability, you've guided for high
single-digit return on core tier 1. Consensus is at 9%. You're already at 9.2% in the nine-month stage this
year. So how should we be thinking about the outlook for returns and earnings growth in ‘25 versus ‘24?
And also, any specific items to be aware of in the fourth quarter that could bring the ‘24 return on core tier
1 down meaningfully from what we've seen so far this year?
And then second, and again, it's a bit of a follow up on US wealth. So 12% pre-tax margin in the quarter,
are there any one-offs in that number? And you've highlighted before your desire to bring, you know, a
broader suite of products and capabilities to clients to drive that margin up towards the mid-teens target.
What are the key signposts we should look out for you to sort of be delivering on that strategy? And given
the comments yesterday from Colm on M&A, how does M&A fit into that strategy as well? Thank you.
Todd Tuckner
Yeah. Hi, Chris. So maybe just address your second question initially. Just in terms of the pre-tax profit in the
Americas region. No, no one-offs. Just, you know, I would comment that, first of all, strongest revenue
quarter ever. So there, you know, certainly seeing that as a strength. You know, we continue to see revenues
growing nicely, up 3% sequentially in the region and 9% year-on-year and so, no one-offs. You see as well, I
highlighted in my comments the transaction revenues continue to be a real plus for us, you know, as we
borrowed a page from our strategy outside the US in terms of working hand in hand with the IB and working
with clients and bringing them our product shelf in transactions. So really generating good transactional
growth in that respect.
14
Look, we're going to – we know what we need to do and we're going to stay focused on continuing to,
you know, chip away at our goals. It's not going to happen overnight and we'll continue to come back and
talk about, you know – in fact in the fourth quarter, we'll give more of a perspective on how we see things
and the signposts you can look to. In terms of 2025 and, you know, I'd say, you know, first off, you know, if
you look out into 4Q, you asked, I mean, other than the, you know, the seasonality that we highlighted in
the fourth quarter, a bit on the top line that you would normally see, despite the momentum we saw
coming into 4Q. Also, a little bit on the expense side, as I highlighted in my comments, a bit of the, you
know, somewhat seasonal uptick and some one-offs like the UK bank levy. But away from that, no, I mean,
nothing that we're seeing, and nothing on the CET1 capital ratio that I would – that I would highlight. You
know, as we look out, you know, I don't think we want – we don't think it's appropriate to draw a straight
line or extrapolate from the strong return on CET1 we've generated this year. I think we just have to keep
doing the things that we said we're going to do. We know we have costs that have to continue to come
out at this point. That's going to be the biggest driver of getting us to a cost-income ratio below 70% and
returns to around 15% by the end of 2026. We know that's the ambition for us and we're going to work
over the next two years to get there. But, you know, at this point, I wouldn't extrapolate necessarily from
our ’24 performance to draw a line into ‘25.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Okay. Thanks very much.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Yes, hi. Good morning. So two questions from me. Todd, you mentioned some balance sheet optimization
efforts that have lifted revenues over RWAs by 3 percentage points. I was wondering if you could shed some
light on, you know, these measures and how much is left to come? I think in Q4, you highlighted some NII
[
Edit: NNA
] impact, and I was wondering how much of that has already come through?
And then aside from the quarter, and going back to the US wealth business, in my understanding, once you
get to 15% PBT and once you have done with the CS integration, you could consider some inorganic growth
opportunity to further improve margins. But isn't this at odds with the Too Big to Fail proposal the way it is
written at the moment, which sort of penalizes growth in foreign subsidiaries? And how do you square the
two? Thank you.
15
Todd Tuckner
Hi, Giulia. Yeah, so on the balance sheet optimization, yeah, thanks. Thanks for recalling that point in my
remarks, was, that is something we're, you know, quite proud of, that work which is driving up the, you
know, the efficiency on the capital deployed in the businesses that we inherited. And so this has been a big
piece of work that's been driven by the business – really across the entire business. And so the impact is
appreciable as you saw. So just some insight into it, so – and I've talked about this a bit before, but
effectively, you know, when we look at the capital deployed typically around lending relationships that had
been largely inherited – albeit we can look at still, you know, the ones that are more heritage UBS as well,
you know, to the extent that they're sub-hurdle – we've been taking the steps to drive additional revenues,
you know, through repricing efforts, but importantly, to expand the product shelf and offering available to
those clients who might be monoline clients. And so that's been a big effort and you could see that in the
uptick in the revenue over RWA as we expand effectively the offering to those clients who may have just
been clients who were, you know, had a loan with us, with Credit Suisse, and now have a much broader
array. And so, you know, it's a win-win as we bring a lot of value. I mentioned the impact on net new assets
because naturally, as you attempt to optimize the balance sheet, while we've been successful, there will be
times when you try to reprice that, you know, there will be clients, and in particular securities, leaving the
platform. And so that's where the NNA headwind is that I talked about that we're capturing in our
otherwise impressive net new asset performance in the quarter.
Sergio P. Ermotti
Yeah. Giulia, on the second question, I think that first of all, I think it would be premature to draw a
conclusion around what the new regulation will be. Having said that, you have to balance that, you know,
one aspect that has been clearly outlined by the Swiss Federal Council proposal is that their intention, or
their desire, to keep Switzerland, and broadly speaking, also UBS, as a competitive global player. So I can't
really see how this is possible with the, you know, with a regime that would penalize expansion globally. So
in that sense, I think it's, we – as we mentioned before, we do believe that whatever the new regime will
be, it will be something that fits into this strategic direction outlined by the Federal Council, and a desire to
correct some aspect of the current regulation, which broadly speaking, is a very strong regulation, one of
the most demanding ones when fully applied and consistently applied. That was not the case in the Credit
Suisse situation. UBS is a completely different situation. We believe we have a very strong capital position, a
balance sheet for all seasons, and we are able to sustain both a global business model, but also staying very
close to our own markets and sustain the economy. So, you know, when we have all the facts, we will draw
strategic conclusions on what to do. It's now premature to do that.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Thank you.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous
Hi, good morning and thank you very much for taking my questions. The first one I wanted to ask is, I
noticed that your sensitivity to a downward shift of the yield curve has actually come down a lot. In the
second quarter, you guided for minus 1.5 billion. Now it's only 300 million, and that is despite the fact that
the rate environment hasn't changed dramatically during the third quarter. Could you maybe explain what
has changed then?
16
And another question not directly related to the results, but there were stories that you might be interested
in some kind of joint venture in India, potentially with a player called 360 ONE. You may not be able to
comment on this specifically, but hypothetically, would this be indicative of any strategic desire to shift more
onshore and more into potentially lower wealth brackets if you contemplate such a move? Thank you very
much.
Todd Tuckner
Hey, Stefan. How are you? On the first – yeah, good spot. So the – that asymmetry is a function of now, in
the lower interest rate environment in Swiss franc terms, it's just the loan flooring dynamics that come into
play from negative interest rates. So you see that the down 100 basis points scenario will have a much more
limited impact, or an asymmetrical impact to the up 100 basis point impact, in particular in Swissy.
Sergio P. Ermotti
Yeah. And on the second question, you're right, we are not going to comment on any speculations or
rumors, but, you know, we do believe that Asia-PAC is a growth business. We have now a stronger presence
in India thanks to the combination of the UBS and Credit Suisse capabilities. We always look at ways to
enhance our businesses in each key locations where we operate, but I wouldn't draw a conclusion that we
are thinking about major strategic moves in terms of segment focus at this stage.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous
Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas
Morning. Thank you. Just a couple of follow ups on wealth management actually and they’re both things
that you've touched on, but I just want to get into a bit more detail. The first one was on advisor numbers,
which are coming down a little bit more, sort of as expected in this quarter. But I just wondered where you
are in that process and what the outlook is for, you know, how much more reduction in advisor numbers do
you expect? And is there a point at which that returns to growth mode, or does it stay in optimization mode
for a continued period of time? So, advisor numbers.
And then the second question was just to talk a bit more about Asia in wealth management. You referred to
the stimulus, you referred to the pickup in transaction activity, so I just wondered where you think we are in
that process? And for example, whether you're seeing signs of re-leveraging and just how much improvement
you see ahead of us in that Asia process?
Todd Tuckner
Hi, Jeremy. Yeah. So first on Asia. Yeah, we're really pleased with the performance in GWM APAC and
thanks for recognizing that as well. You know, you see the sequential progress, this, you know, having
transaction-based income up in 3Q versus 2Q, really proud of that result. And then you see the year-on-
year quite strong. You know, in terms of where we are, I think, you know, this – we have, I would argue
we have a long road ahead in the sense of good upside, just given that, you know, the business is first
coming together now on the same platform. I mean, we shouldn't underestimate the importance of that.
You know, with the Hong Kong client account migration just having been completed this past weekend,
and we're looking forward to Singapore and Japan in the fourth quarter.
17
I mean, these are things that are really going to just further bring the business together. And, you know, I
think from here, lower rates, you know, let's see, but re-leveraging opportunity, as you mentioned, the
business is very focused. I think the business is, you know, is positioning itself to fire on all cylinders in
APAC. And I'm very, very bullish about that. So in terms of where we are in the process, I think, you know,
obviously it's been a good backdrop in this last quarter, but I think there are really good things ahead.
In terms of the advisor numbers, I would sort of, you know, look at that in two ways. First, you know, on
the non-US or what we call the Swiss and International part of GWM, you know, I would say from an
advisor perspective, it is still – optimization’s probably the word – to come together. I think, you know, it's –
lion's share of that's been complete. You know, I've talked about the Credit Suisse client advisors leaving for
some period of time, and that's been an old story, and it's just really the tail of it that we talk about maybe
as a headwind a bit, on net new assets. But in terms of the advisor headcount, you know, I just see the
teams as they come together as well once all the platform work is complete, you know, I think then we get
to a point and that of stability, and from there the business can make targeted investments in specific
regions to grow for sure, but to already leverage at scale.
I think the US we need to, a bit, take a wait-and-see, and see what the leadership comes back with a bit
and they – as they do their strategic reviews and we'll talk – Sergio and I will come out and talk a bit in the
fourth quarter about that. You know, I think, you know, it has been a story of somewhat trying to get
more productive with a smaller advisor workforce over a number of years. And we'll have to see if that's,
you know, the direction of travel that the current leadership wants to go.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas
Great. Thank you.
Amit Goel, Mediobanca
Hi. Thank you. Yeah. So two questions for me, also one on the US wealth business. I found it really
interesting, the commentary about potentially looking at acquisitions. I guess what I'm just wondering is
then, you know, from a strategy standpoint, if part of the issue in terms of operating margin is the scale and
the cost base relative to the revenues, you know, is it now then the case that it's cheaper to acquire than to
simply just hire? Because, you know, the US, you know, as you say, is, the focus has been on productivity,
reducing FA numbers. So I'm just trying to think, is that because, you know, these 400% recruitment deals
are now just too expensive to make it worthwhile, but it's actually just cheaper to buy an organization?
And then secondly, just going back on the deposits and the roll-off of the fixed term deposits within wealth,
I'm just curious, were those kind of written 12 months ago and, you know, were those done at, kind of, quite
high rates? So just curious if there's also potentially some of that effect into Q4 and start of next year? Thank
you.
Todd Tuckner
Yeah. Hi, Amit. Yeah. So on the deposits question, yeah, these were written, you know, basically they're –
they have a year maturity so you start to see, we start in 2Q already, ones that were written just in the wake
of the acquisition, you know, all the way through, I would say, you know, the end of the year of 2023 into
the very beginning of this year. And they had – they were competitive in terms of pricing for sure, as part
of, you know, stabilizing the franchise and engaging with clients. So for sure and so now as they mature,
you know, the question, and that's what I've been highlighting in the last couple of quarters, the question
becomes, you know, what we call landing, we refer to them as landing those deposits in the sense of
converting them into other parts of the platform as we've been doing successfully.
18
Retaining is the key, you know, is the key objective and retaining them in a more profitable manner. We're
doing that quite successfully, but it's a headwind on NNA that we've absorbed, in these NNA metrics that
I've been highlighting insofar as you know, there is still some that are leaving the platform. In terms of the
outlook we still see elevated, I think 3Q is the peak, but we still see elevated maturing FTDs in the fourth
quarter and into the front part of the first quarter before, you know, we could get this issue a bit in the
rearview.
Sergio P. Ermotti
Well, in respect, again, I guess on this potential inorganic thing, you know, I have to say that Colm made it
very clear that it's not a tomorrow-morning kind of issue, so I think it's totally premature to speculate how –
if and how – we would do any such a move. Our priority right now is to improve what we do in the US,
bringing the margins to, narrowing the margins to our peers and doing better what we have today, and
then potentially by doing that, and we're going to create also the optionality and to really choose what is –
fits best, is it an organic growth or is it inorganic, and what fits the best in our business model, which is
asset gathering-centric.
The scale issue in the US is pretty much driven by the fact that we have a banking platform, a G-SIB
platform de facto as – through the intermediate holding company – that can accommodate different
banking businesses, which we don't have. So again, I think that, you know, once we finish this chapter of
restoring the profitability at the levels we want to be, and we fully extract the value of our investments in
the Investment Bank and the collaboration between the Investment Bank and Wealth Management and
Asset Management, we will determine the next phase. Now, it's really way too early to speculate.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Hi. Yeah, thank you very much for taking my question. Just two small ones on capital, please. The first one is
on the core tier 1 ratio staying, I mean ex the accelerated amortization, stable quarter-on-quarter. And that's
in spite of a really strong, like, profit capital generation. I mean, I realized there are a number of things
going on, including FX, but is there something else we should keep in mind that only means the capital ratio
is flat or you're investing more capital into organic growth? Otherwise, I guess given the strong earnings, the
expectation will be the capital generation drives the ratio higher.
And then secondly, just on the Basel IV impact, just to confirm, would that be at the UBS AG, would the
impact be around 30 basis points as well? Thank you.
Todd Tuckner
Hi Anke. Yeah. So on the first – on your first question in terms of the capital accretion, ex the acceleration of
transitional adjustment, I think there are a few factors to consider. You know, one is the FX sensy, I mean you
mentioned that, but you know we disclosed that there is an FX sensy of 18 basis points on our capital with
respect to a 10% depreciation in the dollar, you know, versus our major currencies. If you look at – if you
look at currencies in 3Q in particular, the Swissy dollar was down around 6% from the beginning of the
quarter until the end. And the pound versus the dollar, similar dynamic. So that accounts for, you know, close
to 0.1% on the capital ratio that the currency effects this quarter as you mentioned so that's one piece.
Another piece is just the temporary difference deferred tax assets, you know, given the reduction in the
CET1 level of capital from the acceleration, we are at the 10% threshold. So we lose a bit, you know, goes
over the 10% and therefore lose the benefit of the temp difference DTA, which has a modest impact. And
then third, just slightly increasing the accrual for future award hedging, future share award hedges. That's in
our capital so that also has an impact. So those all contribute to probably why you would have expected
maybe on net profit, other things equal, to be potentially slightly above the 15 handle.
19
Anke Reingen, RBC
Ok, thank you.
Todd Tuckner
Sorry, on the Basel III final impact on the parent bank. It won't be the entire 30 basis points affecting the
parent bank but it should be most of – the most of it, there might be some that falls outside. But again, if
you're talking also the parent bank standalone, it won't be all of it because still a fair bit of activity that's
subject to the Basel III changes, you know, are happening in subsidiaries, not in the parent bank itself. So I
would expect that there'll be some but not all of the 30 basis point impact in the parent bank itself.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Thank you very much.
Andrew Coombs, Citi
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. A couple, both related to revenues. Firstly, coming back to
the US sweep deposits and repricing. Thank you firstly for the additional color around the slightly less than 50
million PBT impact. But can I ask if you could possibly break out revenue gross impact versus the cost save
offset on that? And also, do the class action suits in the SEC probe have any implications on pricing dynamics
in your mind for the industry as well as for you going forward?
And then the second question actually on loans, if you adjust out for FX, you've seen a CHF 10 billion decline
Q-on-Q. You reiterated this point about committing to CHF 350 billion loan book across P&C and GWM
Switzerland. You're now running a bit below that, I think you’re closer to CHF 340 [billion]. So, just to be
clear, is the CHF 350 [billion] a commitment throughout this period or is it a case of you expect to trend down
and then recover back to that CHF 350 [billion]? Thank you.
Todd Tuckner
Hey, Andrew. So on the second one, look, it's a commitment you know to maintain around that level. So, you
know, we've been doing the balance sheet work that I've been highlighting in my remarks, both in P&C and
GWM. And, you know, in P&C, we actually saw net new loan outflows, as I highlighted, of about
CHF 6 billion this quarter. This is a commitment that we've made to the market and you can look at that as
an ambition that we’ll continue to focus on and commit to. But, of course, we're also running the business so
there might be volatility quarter-on-quarter on that.
In terms of – in terms of the sweep, you were looking for some more information. You know, I had
mentioned in the past that, look, the gross would be a low single-digit percentage of the divisional net
interest income. So with you know, that was even based on where rates were when we gave the guidance
last quarter so as rates now are coming in, you know, as mentioned, that will have a lower impact on the
gross as well as a lower impact on the net. That should give you, though, a general sense of the impact.
20
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Yes. Good morning. Two questions, please, from my side. First on Investment Bank. You outperformed across
equities and fixed income, would just be interested in a bit more color, what you attribute to between the
two? Is it lower base, is Credit Suisse now fully at revenue run rate or business mix? Anything else you would
flag?
And then secondly, GWM and also P&C net interest income outperformed your own guidance. Just
wondering why that was in your view and why the Q4 guidance could be conservative or not? So what could
be worse this time? Thank you.
Todd Tuckner
Yeah. Hi, Benjamin. So on the second, in terms of, you know, our guidance last quarter, we extended
duration of our equity and we saw higher reinvestment income as I highlighted in my comments and that
had, you know, a positive effect on GWM's NII. And therefore we came in flattish versus sort of a low-to-mid
guidance. So, that would explain that. On the P&C side, I think we saw some positive effects of the balance
sheet optimization work that had, you know, a strong impact in the third quarter as an offset to the rate
impact as I highlighted. So those were – there were some offsets that, which we're always working obviously
to drive in this lower rates environment. There were some offsets that had us outperform in the quarter. So I
mean, the guidance I gave for 4Q is how we see it at the moment, largely driven by the impact of rates. But
of course, we're going to always look to drive offsets where we can.
In terms of the IB, you know, I'd say, you know, the – on the Markets side, I mean it's effectively the you
know, the Credit Suisse team has been embedded for some time. The positions have been all largely
transitioned over. So it's you know, it's all steam and full steam ahead in terms of that. Credit Suisse is
supporting Markets on the research side but yeah, it's the performance I would say, is not about it being a
lower base. I think in Markets it's been about a team that's – a strong team that's gotten stronger and you
see in supportive markets how the team is performing.
Benjamin Goy, Deutsche Bank
Thank you.
Piers Brown, HSBC
Good morning, guys. Just got two questions. One is a follow-up on the previous investment bank question.
But in terms of the global banking business, I mean, you're still showing good year-over-year momentum, but
much weaker quarter-on-quarter I think as you guided into 3Q. But could you just talk about how you're
thinking about execution of the pipeline, given market conditions in the fourth quarter and prospect of
further volatility?
And then the second question is on NCL so, again, as you've guided the slowing of the pace of RWA growth,
you're about just under 5 billion this quarter from 8 billion last quarter and 16 billion in the third – in the first
quarter. So would it be fair to draw from that, that the opportunities to actively run off the portfolio are fairly
limited at this stage and we're really on to a natural roll off path from here? Thanks.
21
Todd Tuckner
Yeah. Hi, Piers. So on the second look, you know, Sergio and I have said consistently that in NCL we're going
to prioritize cost takeout in the way we think about de-risking the book. That still is the team's focus. You
know, it's had a great run and continued to do so in 3Q with de-risking another 5 billion of RWA, you know,
so I mean, I wouldn't necessarily draw conclusions other than to say that the pace that they were running at
is a pace that would be very hard to sustain, given that we had, you know, we articulated ambitions for the
end of 2026 that they've been making quick work at. But – and we'll come back and re-guide as I mentioned
in my comments in 4Q about how we see the next two years. But certainly you, you can't draw a straight line
from the performance that they've had, you know, live-to-date.
In terms of the Banking performance in the quarter. Look, I still think it was a good performance. It
outperformed the fee pool. We had a very strong first half of the year. 2Q was exceptionally strong. We had a
bit of bring forward as well of some deals that we were able to get done in 2Q. And probably had the inverse
dynamic happening in 3Q, where we had some deals, you know, pushed into the fourth quarter and those
deals on the margin can make a difference on the performance in the comparative.
But we remain very, very bullish on the pipeline. You know, naturally, of course, the uncertainties that we
highlighted in our comments about 4Q, you know, are clearly potential issues to navigate, i.e., the US
elections, other geopolitical concerns and tensions that may impact on banking overall. But I think, you know,
we're going to continue to gain market share. And, you know, we're bullish on Banking's ability to execute
on its pipeline.
Sergio P. Ermotti
Todd, I would only maybe add to that. From a comparison standpoint of view, it's worthwhile to note that
strategically we are underweight in debt capital markets. So, in a sense, when you look at the performance,
you have to look at the third quarter was a pretty strong quarter for debt capital markets. So I think that we
are very happy with the developments that we've seen in Banking and the ability to win mandates. Now, of
course, we need to see if we can execute it if the market will – if the market will be there, but just very, very
confident that it's a good momentum.
So that was the last question so thanks for dialing in and for your questions and we'll catch up in February for
the Q4 results, and we're going to give you also an update on our 2025 and 2026 journey. Thank you.
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Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements |
This document contains statements that constitute “forward-looking statements”,
including but not limited to management’s outlook for UBS’s financial performance, statements relating to the anticipated effect of transactions and
strategic initiatives on UBS’s business and future development and goals or intentions to achieve climate, sustainability and other social objectives. While
these forward-looking statements represent UBS’s judgments, expectations and objectives concerning the matters described, a number of risks, uncertainties
and other important factors could cause actual developments and results to differ materially from UBS’s expectations. In particular, the global economy may
be negatively affected by shifting political circumstances, including as a result of elections, increased tension between world powers, growing conflicts in
the Middle East, as well as the continuing Russia–Ukraine war. In addition, the ongoing conflicts may continue to cause significant population displacement,
and lead to shortages of vital commodities, including energy shortages and food insecurity outside the areas immediately involved in armed conflict.
Governmental responses to the armed conflicts, including, with respect to the Russia–Ukraine war, coordinated successive sets of sanctions on Russia and
Belarus, and Russian and Belarusian entities and nationals, and the uncertainty as to whether the ongoing conflicts will further widen and intensify, may
continue to have significant adverse effects on the market and macroeconomic conditions, including in ways that cannot be anticipated. UBS’s acquisition
of the Credit Suisse Group has materially changed its outlook and strategic direction and introduced new operational challenges. The integration of the
Credit Suisse entities into the UBS structure is expected to take between three and five years and presents significant risks, including the risks that UBS
Group AG may be unable to achieve the cost reductions and other benefits contemplated by the transaction. This creates significantly greater uncertainty
about forward-looking statements. Other factors that may affect UBS’s performance and ability to achieve its plans, outlook and other objectives also
include, but are not limited to: (i) the degree to which UBS is successful in the execution of its strategic plans, including its cost reduction and efficiency
initiatives and its ability to manage its levels of risk-weighted assets (RWA) and leverage ratio denominator (LRD), liquidity coverage ratio and other financial
resources, including changes in RWA assets and liabilities arising from higher market volatility and the size of the combined Group; (ii) the degree to which
UBS is successful in implementing changes to its businesses to meet changing market, regulatory and other conditions, including as a result of the acquisition
of the Credit Suisse Group; (iii) increased inflation and interest rate volatility in major markets; (iv) developments in the macroeconomic climate and in the
markets in which UBS operates or to which it is exposed, including movements in securities prices or liquidity, credit spreads, currency exchange rates,
deterioration or slow recovery in residential and commercial real estate markets, the effects of economic conditions, including elevated inflationary pressures,
market developments, increasing geopolitical tensions, and changes to national trade policies on the financial position or creditworthiness of UBS’s clients
and counterparties, as well as on client sentiment and levels of activity; (v) changes in the availability of capital and funding, including any adverse changes
in UBS’s credit spreads and credit ratings of UBS, Credit Suisse, sovereign issuers, structured credit products or credit-related exposures, as well as availability
and cost of funding to meet requirements for debt eligible for total loss-absorbing capacity (TLAC), in particular in light of the acquisition of the Credit
Suisse Group; (vi) changes in central bank policies or the implementation of financial legislation and regulation in Switzerland, the US, the UK, the EU and
other financial centers that have imposed, or resulted in, or may do so in the future, more stringent or entity-specific capital, TLAC, leverage ratio, net stable
funding ratio, liquidity and funding requirements, heightened operational resilience requirements, incremental tax requirements, additional levies, limitations
on permitted activities, constraints on remuneration, constraints on transfers of capital and liquidity and sharing of operational costs across the Group or
other measures, and the effect these will or would have on UBS’s business activities; (vii) UBS’s ability to successfully implement resolvability and related
regulatory requirements and the potential need to make further changes to the legal structure or booking model of UBS in response to legal and regulatory
requirements and any additional requirements due to its acquisition of the Credit Suisse Group, or other developments; (viii) UBS’s ability to maintain and
improve its systems and controls for complying with sanctions in a timely manner and for the detection and prevention of money laundering to meet
evolving regulatory requirements and expectations, in particular in current geopolitical turmoil; (ix) the uncertainty arising from domestic stresses in certain
major economies; (x) changes in UBS’s competitive position, including whether differences in regulatory capital and other requirements among the major
financial centers adversely affect UBS’s ability to compete in certain lines of business; (xi) changes in the standards of conduct applicable to its businesses
that may result from new regulations or new enforcement of existing standards, including measures to impose new and enhanced duties when interacting
with customers and in the execution and handling of customer transactions; (xii) the liability to which UBS may be exposed, or possible constraints or
sanctions that regulatory authorities might impose on UBS, due to litigation, contractual claims and regulatory investigations, including the potential for
disqualification from certain businesses, potentially large fines or monetary penalties, or the loss of licenses or privileges as a result of regulatory or other
governmental sanctions, as well as the effect that litigation, regulatory and similar matters have on the operational risk component of its RWA, including
as a result of its acquisition of the Credit Suisse Group, as well as the amount of capital available for return to shareholders; (xiii) the effects on UBS’s
business, in particular cross-border banking, of sanctions, tax or regulatory developments and of possible changes in UBS’s policies and practices; (xiv) UBS’s
ability to retain and attract the employees necessary to generate revenues and to manage, support and control its businesses, which may be affected by
competitive factors; (xv) changes in accounting or tax standards or policies, and determinations or interpretations affecting the recognition of gain or loss,
the valuation of goodwill, the recognition of deferred tax assets and other matters; (xvi) UBS’s ability to implement new technologies and business methods,
including digital services and technologies, and ability to successfully compete with both existing and new financial service providers, some of which may
not be regulated to the same extent; (xvii) limitations on the effectiveness of UBS’s internal processes for risk management, risk control, measurement and
modeling, and of financial models generally; (xviii) the occurrence of operational failures, such as fraud, misconduct, unauthorized trading, financial crime,
cyberattacks, data leakage and systems failures, the risk of which is increased with cyberattack threats from both nation states and non-nation-state actors
targeting financial institutions; (xix) restrictions on the ability of UBS Group AG and UBS AG to make payments or distributions, including due to restrictions
on the ability of its subsidiaries to make loans or distributions, directly or indirectly, or, in the case of financial difficulties, due to the exercise by FINMA or
the regulators of UBS’s operations in other countries of their broad statutory powers in relation to protective measures, restructuring and liquidation
proceedings; (xx) the degree to which changes in regulation, capital or legal structure, financial results or other factors may affect UBS’s ability to maintain
its stated capital return objective; (xxi) uncertainty over the scope of actions that may be required by UBS, governments and others for UBS to achieve goals
relating to climate, environmental and social matters, as well as the evolving nature of underlying science and industry and the possibility of conflict between
different governmental standards and regulatory regimes; (xxii) the ability of UBS to access capital markets; (xxiii) the ability of UBS to successfully recover
from a disaster or other business continuity problem due to a hurricane, flood, earthquake, terrorist attack, war, conflict (e.g., the Russia–Ukraine war),
pandemic, security breach, cyberattack, power loss, telecommunications failure or other natural or man-made event, including the ability to function
remotely during long-term disruptions such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic; (xxiv) the level of success in the absorption of Credit Suisse, in the
integration of the two groups and their businesses, and in the execution of the planned strategy regarding cost reduction and divestment of any non-core
assets, the existing assets and liabilities of Credit Suisse, the level of resulting impairments and write-downs, the effect of the consummation of the
integration on the operational results, share price and credit rating of UBS – delays, difficulties, or failure in closing the transaction may cause market
disruption and challenges for UBS to maintain business, contractual and operational relationships; and (xxv) the effect that these or other factors or
unanticipated events, including media reports and speculations, may have on its reputation and the additional consequences that this may have on its
business and performance. The sequence in which the factors above are presented is not indicative of their likelihood of occurrence or the potential
magnitude of their consequences. UBS’s business and financial performance could be affected by other factors identified in its past and future filings and
reports, including those filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the SEC). More detailed information about those factors is set forth in
documents furnished by UBS and filings made by UBS with the SEC, including the UBS Group AG and UBS AG Annual Reports on Form 20- F for the year
ended 31 December 2023. UBS is not under any obligation to (and expressly disclaims any obligation to) update or alter its forward-looking statements,
whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
© UBS 2024. The key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrants have duly
caused this report to be signed on their behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.
UBS Group AG
By: /s/ David Kelly
_
Name: David Kelly
Title: Managing Director
By: /s/ Ella Campi
_
Name: Ella Campi
Title: Executive Director
UBS AG
By: /s/ David Kelly
_
Name: David Kelly
Title: Managing Director
By: /s/ Ella Campi
_
Name: Ella Campi
Title: Executive Director
Date: November 1, 2024