Albany International Corp /De/ Q2 FY2021 Earnings Call

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Albany International Second Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Mr. John Hobbs, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Tony, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Albany International's Second Quarter 2021 conference call. As a reminder, for those listening on the call, please refer to our press release issued last night detailing our quarterly financial results. Contained in the text of the release is a notice regarding our forward-looking statements in the use of certain non-GAAP financial measures and their associated reconciliation to GAAP. For the purposes of this conference call, those same statements apply to our verbal remarks this morning. Today we will make statements that are forward-looking and contain a number of risks and uncertainties, among which are the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on our operations, the markets we serve, and our financial results. For our full discussion, including a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures we may use in this call to their most comparable GAAP measures, please refer to both our earnings release of July 26, 2021, as well as our SEC filings including our 10-K. Now I'll turn the call over to Bill Higgins, President and Chief Executive Officer, who will provide opening remarks.

Thanks, John. Good morning, and welcome to everyone. Thank you for joining our Second Quarter Earnings Call. I am pleased to report that we delivered another strong quarter with excellent performance in both segments. Our operations continue to excel for our customers with best-in-class delivery, quality, and service. I am really proud of our employees and how they have stayed focused on safety, productivity, cost savings, and Lean Kaizen process improvements. As a company, we delivered $235 million in revenue in the second quarter, growing revenues both year-over-year and sequentially, and we achieved near-record levels of profitability. Gross margins of 43% and operating margins of 21%, our second highest quarterly margin performance. We achieved GAAP EPS of $0.97 for adjusted EPS of $1.10, and our best free cash flow quarter in the company's history, generating over $50 million in free cash flow in the second quarter. We did face supply chain challenges in materials, cost inflation, and logistics that our teams were able to manage through and successfully offset some of their impact on the bottom line, and we'll keep an eye on these going forward. We continue to pay down debt and have a healthy balance sheet that enables investment in future growth. As we've mentioned before, we're increasing our investment in research and technology across the company. In general, we're encouraged by the economic recovery in key markets coming out of the pandemic slowdown. We're cautiously watching how the delta variant might affect this recovery, particularly international air travel in the less vaccinated regions of the world. That said, long-term secular trends are favorable, and Albany's market positions, global footprint, and product development take advantage of these trends. In our Engineered Composites segment, as domestic airline travel recovers, we expect to benefit from our position on narrow-body aircraft with LEAP engines in our partnership with Safran. As we mentioned last quarter, we're working closely with Safran to coordinate ramping production as LEAP demand picks up on recovering narrow-body OEM production. Our plans include hiring additional workers and preparing for increased production in our three LEAP facilities as we exit 2021 and grow in the future. We're very excited about Safran's recent announcement with GE to partner in the development of the next-generation RISE engine. We view Safran as an important long-term customer and partner. As we previously mentioned, we're investing more this year in R&D projects, particularly with new customers and new products, using advanced materials such as our 3D-woven composites, with the goal to diversify and grow our customer base, and broaden our material science capabilities. This ranges from our proprietary 3D-woven composites currently used on LEAP engine fan blades and fan cases, to automated fiber placement composite wing skins for Lockheed Martin's F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, to complex components on the Sikorsky CH-53K helicopter. We continue to develop applications for the Wing of Tomorrow program with Airbus Industries, and along these lines, we are pleased to announce earlier this month our technology collaboration with Spirit AeroSystems to develop advanced 3D-woven composite applications for hypersonic vehicles. This collaboration capitalizes on the unique capabilities of both companies to achieve superior hypersonic design solutions and efficient manufacturability using Albany's proprietary 3D-woven composite technologies, and it builds on our demonstrative ability to manufacture 3D-woven composites at commercial scale. This is an exciting example of the types of new business and advanced technology programs we're investing in today to help secure our future long-term growth. In the Machine Clothing segment, we're optimistic about recovering global growth and expect to benefit from long-term secular trends, which should underpin the demand for paper products. Our Machine Clothing business has benefitted as a leading supplier in the industry since we're well-positioned globally, particularly in the growing end markets for packaging and tissue products. Our product development strategies, operational improvements, and technical service continue to target these higher growth end markets. Our operating teams have been firing on all cylinders, and we expect to continue our strong execution in the second half of the year. Let me say a few words about Machine Clothing's end markets. Packaging, tissue, corrugated products, pulp, and building products end markets have remained the strongest sub-segments, with packaging benefiting from increasing online shopping as retail goes through a fundamental shift worldwide. In tissue, we may be in a transition phase where at-home demand settles down and people return to school, restaurants, offices, vacations, etc. We have yet to see a pickup, however, in the away-from-home paper markets for our belts, which should eventually improve. Not surprisingly, publication grades continue their decline and only represented 16% of MC revenues in the second quarter. Markets in North America and China are robust, while emerging economies are still grappling with COVID and low vaccination rates, likely requiring more time to rebound. In summary, our Machine Clothing segment continues to perform well, our operations are strong, taking advantage of the higher growth sub-segments, and serving customers well around the world as a recognized global leader in the industry. This success is a result of disciplined execution of our long-term strategy. As I mentioned, we have a strong balance sheet and good free cash flow generation, which allows us to continue investing in the technologies and customer programs that expand and broaden our competitive position in both segments. Our first priority for capital allocation is to invest in organic growth programs across both business segments and then to seek acquisitions that fill our long-term strategy. Our reputation for reliability, service, and technical excellence is well-established in Machine Clothing, and our brand is growing in aerospace as a reliable supplier and engineered materials partner. We're optimistic about the long-term opportunities in both segments. So with that, I'll turn it over to Stephen for details on the financials.

Thank you, Bill, and good morning to everyone. I'll talk first about the results for the quarter and then comment on the outlook for our business for the balance of the year. For the second quarter, total company net sales were $234.5 million, an increase of 3.8% compared to $226 million delivered in the same quarter last year. Adjusting for currency translation effects, net sales rose by 1% year-over-year in the quarter. In Machine Clothing, also adjusting for currency translation effects, net sales were up 0.8% year-over-year, driven by increases in packaging grades and engineered fabrics, partially offset by declines in all other grades. Publication revenue declined by over 7% in the quarter and, as Bill mentioned, represented only 16% of MC's revenue this quarter. Tissue grades also declined year-over-year due to a more normal level of demand for grades to support customer production for at-home use, resulting in a decline from the highs for those grades that we saw last year without significant recovery to date in the away-from-home product grades. Engineered Composites net sales, again after adjusting for currency translation effects, grew by 1.3%, primarily driven by growth on LEAP and CH-53K, partially offset by a decline on the 787 platform. During the quarter, the ASC LEAP program generated a little over $25 million in revenue. Comparable to the first quarter of this year, but up over $10 million from the second quarter of last year. At the same time, we reduced our inventory of LEAP-1B finished goods by over 20 engine shipsets in the quarter, leaving us with about 170 LEAP-1B engine shipsets on the balance sheet at the end of the second quarter. As you will recall, we previously recognized revenue on these engine shipsets and their value was reported under contract assets on our balance sheet. Also during the most recent quarter, we generated about $3 million in revenue on the 787 program, up from less than $1 million in the first quarter, but down from almost $14 million in the second quarter of last year. Second quarter gross profit for the company was $101.7 million, a reduction of 1% from the comparable period last year. The overall gross margin decreased by 220 basis points from 45.6% to 43.4% of net sales. Within the MC segment, gross margin declined from 54.5% to 52.9% of net sales principally due to foreign currency effects, higher input costs, and higher fixed costs, partially offset by improved absorption. For the AEC segment, the gross margin declined from 26.7% to 23% of net sales, driven primarily by a smaller impact from changes in the estimated profitability of long-term contracts. During this quarter, we recognized a net favorable change in the estimated profitability of long-term contracts of just over $4 million. But this compares to a net favorable change of over $7 million in the same quarter last year. The favorable adjustment this quarter was principally due to a reduction as a result of changes in volume expectations to previously established loss reserves on a couple of specific programs and is therefore not necessarily reflective of ongoing enhancements to profitability. In fact, as we previously discussed, the expected revenue declines this year in some of our fixed-price programs are leading to headwinds to long-term program profitability this year. Second quarter selling, technical, general, and research expenses increased from $47.4 million in the prior year quarter to $51.8 million in the current quarter and also increased as a percentage of net sales from 21% to 22.1%. The increase in the amount of expense reflects higher incentive compensation expense, higher R&D spending, higher travel expenses, and higher foreign currency revaluation losses. Total operating income for the company was $50 million, down from $52.7 million in the prior year quarter. Machine Clothing operating income fell by $600,000 caused by higher STG in our expense, partially offset by higher gross profit and lower restructuring expense. And AEC operating income fell by $1.1 million, caused by lower gross profit and higher STG in our expense, partially offset by lower restructuring expense. The income tax rate for this quarter was 30%, compared to 32.1% in the same quarter last year. The lower rate this year was caused by the generation of a lower share of our global profits in jurisdictions with higher tax rates, partially offset by a higher level of unfavorable discrete income tax adjustments. Net income attributable to the company for the quarter was $31.4 million, a reduction of $1 million from $32.4 million last year. The reduction was caused primarily by the lower operating profit, partially offset by the lower tax rate. Earnings per share was $0.97 in this quarter compared to $1 last year. After adjusting for the impact of foreign currency revaluation gains and losses, restructuring expenses, and expenses associated with the CirComp acquisition and integration, adjusted earnings per share was $1.01 this quarter, compared to $1.09 last year. Adjusted EBITDA declined by 5.8% to $69.4 million for the most recent quarter compared to the same period last year. Machine Clothing adjusted EBITDA was $63 million, essentially flat compared to the prior year quarter and represented 39.4% of net sales. AEC adjusted EBITDA was $19.3 million or 25.9% of net sales, down from last year's $22.8 million or 31.4% of net sales. Turning to our debt position. Total debt, which consists of amounts reported on our balance sheet as long-term debt or current maturities of long-term debt, declined from $384 million at the end of Q1 2021 to $350 million at the end of Q2, and cash increased by just over $15 million during the quarter, resulting in the reduction in net debt of about $50 million. Capital expenditures in the quarter were approximately $11 million compared to $9 million in the same quarter last year. The increase was caused primarily by higher capital expenditures in Machine Clothing. As we look forward to the balance of 2021, the outlook for the Machine Clothing segment remains strong. Compared to the same period last year, MC orders were up 10% in the second quarter and up over 3% year-to-date. We are also seeing some foreign currency tailwinds to our MC revenue, primarily driven by the strong Euro, although the recent strength in the dollar versus the Euro means that we are unlikely to see the same foreign currency tailwinds in the back half of the year. Overall, we are raising our previously issued guidance of revenue for the segment to between $585 million and $600 million, up from the prior range of $570 million to $590 million. From a margin perspective in Machine Clothing, we delivered another strong quarter with adjusted EBITDA margins of almost 40%. We saw some increase in the level of travel during the quarter, but we are still not back to a normal level of travel, and the segment's travel expense in the quarter was still almost $2 million below the level in the same quarter in 2019. So, we may see some additional pressure from that in the balance of the year as we continue with the return to normal. We have also seen some pressure from increased input expenses, both raw materials and logistics, and expect these pressures to continue through the balance of the year. We continue to work to offset the impact of these cost increases to the greatest extent possible by driving down our production costs through continuous improvement initiatives. However, we do expect to see overall margin pressures in the back half of the year, driven by both increasing travel expenses and rising input costs. At the start of the year, we had anticipated seeing foreign currency exchange rate pressures on MC profitability, particularly caused by the recovery in the Mexican peso and Brazilian real as the devaluation of both of those currencies in the middle of 2020 has provided us a bottom line benefit since we've had more expenses than revenues in those currencies. Year-to-date, we have not seen as much headwind from those currencies as we had expected, and we have also benefited from the strong euro, a currency where we have more revenues than expenses. As a result, overall year-to-date, foreign exchange rates have actually provided us with a modest adjusted EBITDA benefit compared to the same period last year. However, based on current exchange rates, we will not see the same comparable foreign currency benefit in the back half of the year. We are also cautious about the effects of a potential resurgence in COVID cases on segment results in the back half of the year. As a result of all of these factors and the increase in revenue guidance, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the MC segment to a range of $210 million to $220 million, up from the prior range of $195 million to $205 million. Turning to Engineered Composites. We delivered a strong quarter aided by the net favorable adjustment to long-term contract profitability. Absent that pickup, our Q2 results were consistent with what we had indicated last quarter, down from Q1, representing what we had expected to be the trough for the year. However, given the impact of the net favorable adjustment on the second quarter results, we now expect that Q2 will be the quarter with the highest segment profitability this year, as we expect Q3 and Q4 profitability to be more in line with what we delivered in Q1. For the full year, we still expect 787 program revenue to be down over $40 million from the roughly $50 million generated on that program last year. With Boeing's recent announcement of a reduction in the 787 build rate, all but eliminating the possibility for any upside on that program later in the year. We also still expect LEAP revenue to be in line with prior expectations and roughly flat to last year. However, on a more positive note, while F-35 revenue was down slightly in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, recent order volume has given us confidence that we will not see the full-year decline in F-35 revenue that we had previously expected. Overall, due to the increased confidence in F-35 revenue, the adjustments to long-term contract profitability this quarter, and improvements in several other areas, we are raising our guidance for segment revenues to be between $290 million and $310 million, up from the previous range of $275 million to $295 million. From a profitability perspective, driven by the same factors, we are raising our AEC adjusted EBITDA guidance to be between $65 million and $75 million, up from the prior range of $55 million to $65 million. We are also updating our previously issued guidance ranges for company-level performance, including revenue of between $880 million and $910 million, increased from prior guidance of $850 million to $890 million; effective income tax rate of 28% to 30%, unchanged from prior guidance; depreciation and amortization of approximately $75 million, the top end of prior guidance; capital expenditures in the range of $40 million to $50 million, down from prior guidance of $50 million to $60 million; GAAP earnings per share of between $2.84 and $3.14 increased from prior guidance of $2.38 to $2.78; adjusted earnings per share of between $2.90 and $3.20, increased from prior guidance of $2.40 to $2.80; and adjusted EBITDA of between $225 million and $240 million, increased from prior guidance of $195 million to $220 million. Overall, we continue to be very pleased with the performance of both segments. Both are facing challenges, primarily rising input costs for Machine Clothing and the recovering commercial aerospace market for the Engineered Composites segments, but both segments are overcoming these challenges and delivering strong results, which is a testament to the hard work of all our employees around the world. With that, I would like to open the call for questions.

Thank you. Our first question comes from Peter Arment with Baird. Please, go ahead.

Hi, good morning. You actually have Eric Ruden on the line for Peter today. I guess if I could start off, Stephen, maybe at MC. I'm just wondering how the mix that you saw for sales in this quarter compares to what you're seeing in the current order environment there, looking to the back half of the year with geography being the bigger driver of margin pressures. Is there any shift and a particular reason in causing any headwinds or are the ones surrounding just the rising input costs and the other items you called out there?

Good morning, Eric. There has been some pressure from that. Currently, the recent strength in orders has been contributing to a recovery in the Asian market, particularly in China. As we have discussed before, this market is associated with somewhat lower overall margin business, which explains some of the pressure we are experiencing in the second half.

Okay. And then in terms of rising input costs, how does what you're looking at for the second half of the year compare to what you've already been managing through in the second quarter?

It is still increasing initially, and we did not observe the current elevated costs for the entirety of the first half of the year. We are facing increased pressures now. Additionally, as we've mentioned before, there is a delay in how some of these rising input costs show up in our cost of goods sold. This delay occurs as we produce products, which then go into inventory and are sold. Typically, there is about a six-month lag between rising raw material costs and their impact on our actual cost of goods sold. The environment has certainly changed compared to the first half of the year.

Okay, that's helpful. And maybe just one quick one on AEC. Appreciate the details on the moving pieces around the destock there. But is the $60 million to $65 million we talked about as a full-year headwind for 2021 on the inventory destock still the right number? It sounds like 787 is going to be a headwind for longer, but F-35 maybe offsets a bit of that. Maybe if you could just talk through the moving pieces there?

Yes, certainly, but the number is lower right now because we certainly don't face the F-35 decline, as I indicated. So, the destocking for the year is somewhere around about $50 million at this stage.

Okay, thanks. I'll hop back in the queue.

Thank you, Eric.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna with Cowen. Please, go ahead.

Hey guys, good morning.

Good morning, Gaut.

Hi, Gautam.

I had a couple of questions. Machine Clothing continues to kind of do better than we thought it would when we're looking at a longer-term framework. What do you think is the right annual EBITDA for the Machine Clothing business? Are we in a new paradigm where we're just going to be over $200 million plus? Or do you think it will ultimately mean revert down?

Yes, it's pretty hard. We have that discussion internally quite a bit. It's pretty hard to look out with a crystal ball and say what it's going to be, but it does feel like it's gotten to a better level and operations have been holding up really well. So, we're going to try to keep it at that level.

Okay, got it. Secondly, on the F-35, what actually changed? I'm curious if the full $50 million variance on the destocking is from the decrease from $65 million to $50 million. Is that all related to the F-35, and what changed in the last quarter?

Maybe just a little color, and then Stephen can add the financials. We did work with our customer, Lockheed, and we got improved order flow in the quarter that helped with the F-35 production rates to keep that more level-load on the factory, so we weren't actually reducing as we had expected when we spoke in the last quarter.

And some of that includes continuation of some of the additional work we had talked about previously picking up some of the fixed-wing skins we're making with the automated fiber placement machine. We got a contract extension on that, which allowed us to continue to work on that, which was certainly not a sure thing earlier in the year. But overall, yes, the decline from the $65 million range to the $50 million range, Gautam, that you referenced is really driven by F-35. The other programs that we look at out there, most notably 787, there has been no material change from what we expected six months ago.

Does the change with the F-35 effectively limit or lessen the growth we might expect in 2022 and 2023? Looking at their planned production, which is 139 units this year, 169 next year, and stabilizing in the 170 range thereafter, are we anticipating an increase this year? Will it remain flat in 2022 and beyond based on your discussions with Lockheed? How should we interpret the potential growth issues?

I wouldn't jump to that conclusion just yet. I think we got to get a little further along here to figure out what 2022 looks like. But yes, our production goes through a mix of new aircraft as well as sustainment use. So, I don't think it eats into the future aircraft program.

Yes, Gautam. We clearly don't do numbers; we aren't giving any guidance yet. We would clearly still expect to see some growth in F-35 in 2022 and in 2023.

Okay, got it. Last one before I turn it over. Just on the LEAP program. So, you talked about the 1B. Any updates there on when you expect to have inventories balanced with no excess inventory, if you will? And you also mentioned that all three facilities are ramping up on the LEAP. If you could just explain what you're gearing up to do this year or next year in terms of production on the program?

We are gearing up the production in the facilities, and obviously the A320neo program is going fast. That comes out of the destocking phase into more alignment with production of new aircraft long before that. The 737 program does. So, we are ramping up all three facilities as we look into next year. It's relatively flat through the rest part of this year, but growth into next year.

Yes, Gautam. Look, in terms of the inventory level, I mentioned we have 170 roughly engine shipsets on hand at the end of the quarter. That's down from close to 250 at the start of the year. So, it's been a nice decline for the client, 70 ships at year-to-date. I have no intention nor desire to get to zero on that. The exact level we need to get to depends on the volume, the rate at which Boeing is producing, therefore we're shipping, because we have a contractual requirement of a certain number of weeks of inventory on hand. So, it's not exactly clear. It's a complicated calculation. If you're looking at that declining and then potentially going up at what point we cross, but when we get to somewhere, let's say, it certainly wouldn't go below 100 shipsets on hand to give you an idea of how many we have to burn through. So, the most recent quarter we burned through 20. So, if you think we're getting down to 100, it will take several quarters; it will take one or two quarters, but it's several quarters likely ahead of us. But that all depends on Boeing ramping up productions so they're all ready to kind of meet us when we get to that point. Obviously, Boeing is doing a great job getting back up to production, but there are still a lot of uncertainty as to what rate they'll hit at what point in time.

Thank you very much, guys.

Thank you, Gautam.

Thanks.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ciarmoli with Truist Securities. Please, go ahead.

Hey guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the call here. Maybe just one on Machine Clothing. I guess with some of the orders you're seeing and thinking about the rising input costs. Are you able to potentially pass through some of those costs? I think you alluded to most of the plan of attack was going to be on the productivity side, but maybe just what you're seeing or what the flexibility is there?

Yes, it's a good question. We are working to see if we can pass through cost. It's a mixed picture because we have some contracts that are longer than others. So, price negotiations come up over a period of time with different customers at different times. We are looking at that as we go into next year. So, we will work to do that. Our primary approach has been to drive continuous improvement to offset inflation costs. Just in general, we've done that for years.

Got it, got it. And then just maybe one other one on the engineered side. When you think about the LEAP program, obviously Airbus has put out some specific color on where they want to take production. Assuming a path to 75 and assuming the MAX program, are you guys set on potential capacity and the ability to meet that potential demand? How are you guys looking at the program potentially re-accelerating and everything from labor to machining and tooling?

I'd love to have that challenge. We've done a good job of working on the facility as well. Things have been slower here over the last year. So, improving productivity, improving our throughput as production ramps back up, we believe we're in much better shape than we were even in 2019. So, yes, we are hiring people. That will be the thing we're keeping our eyes on as how easy it is to get operators and folks in the facilities. So far, so good. Yes, we think we have the capacity in place; we put a lot of equipment in place back in 2019 to grow, so that would be a great problem to have.

Got it. And then last one, you obviously lifted the guidance, but the second half clearly looks to be weaker across the board, revenue, EPS, and EBITDA. I know you're not going to talk 2023, but we've got weakness in the second half, but presumably as the world begins to recover, travel recovers, we should see a step-up as you may be exit 2021 here?

Yes, I think on the MC side, our third quarter, typically we look at as a little bit of a softer quarter with the summer slowdowns and favor companies getting equipment to do downtime maintenance. They would have already ordered that in the first and second quarter of this year. So, we look at the third quarter as a little bit slower there. And then I think on the AEC side, we've tried our best particularly on the commercial side where there's destocking going on to level-load the factory as we go back into the second half of the year and kind of run at a rate that's predictable and well-planned so we can execute well in the plans. And then some of our growth programs they kick in next year. Not so much in the second half of this year.

Yes, if you examine our margins, particularly for AEC, I want to clarify that I previously misstated our EBITDA guidance for the segment; it should be $65 million to $70 million, not $65 million to $75 million. Looking at the latter half of the year, when excluding the unusual increase in long-term contract performance we experienced in the second quarter—which included a $4 million reduction in loss reserves—there isn't significant margin compression anticipated for AEC. The real margin pressure we are facing is in Machine Clothing, driven by factors we've discussed, especially rising input costs, which include logistics that we cannot overlook. These are substantial expenses, and transporting these large items is costly, especially as we strive to minimize transoceanic shipments. The back-and-forth logistics between North America and Asia are notably constrained. However, we have considerable movement between Asia and Europe, and those transportation costs have increased significantly. This situation is further complicated by RISE costs and travel expenses, along with a less favorable foreign exchange environment compared to the average we've experienced so far this year. Additionally, some mix shifts, as Eric inquired about, are also contributing pressure. Moreover, there are some concerns regarding COVID—not just regarding its impact on our markets but also on our factories, which have faced shutdowns due to outbreaks in the area. Therefore, there's some uncertainty for the latter half of the year as well.

Got it. Thanks a lot, guys.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America. Please, go ahead.

Hey, guys. Could you clarify a little bit? Just a little confused on the impact of 787 on the business. Meaning that it looks like there is a chance here that Boeing might not deliver any 787s for a while, maybe not till the end of the year. How does that flow through the business for you guys?

I guess as a start, as we've communicated before, we've been running the 787 line just warm enough to keep it going. It's such a low level of production. We don't want to lose the capability, the talent, the people and keep operations running and doing that with our channel customers. So, it's in a very, very low level. The more recent announcement from Boeing, while a little disappointing, is not really going to affect us this year. It's probably going to push things maybe further to the right as we look into next year and beyond.

Yes. So for the year, Ron, we've said to expect somewhere in the range of let's say $10 million of revenue this year. On 787, we delivered four year-to-date, so six in the back half. So, whether it's six or closer, lower than that, it's not going to have a material effect. It is important to understand that it is a firm fixed-price contract. And so as we lose revenue, the decremental margins are not just the average margin that program because it's obviously absorbing overhead with that loss of fixed cost absorption. I believe on our fourth quarter earnings call when I provided guidance six months ago, I talked about the fact that some of the incremental margins on some of our fixed price programs had EBITDA margins in the 30s. The drop-through is certainly going to be in that sort of level as we lose that revenue. And so this year, in respect for what happens, not a huge impact, but certainly next year, we had anticipated an increase from this year's level. If things change, we could certainly see a repeat of what we're seeing this year or even lower level closer to zero revenue next year, but that's obviously an open question.

Got it. And then maybe just one follow up. If Airbus were to actually get to 70 A320s a month, are you guys set up to handle that?

Yes. Look, Bill touched on this a few moments ago and that we certainly need to staff up with operators in our facilities. We brought our headcount down as our production volumes decreased. It's obviously a very competitive labor environment right now. It's not just flipping a switch; there's a challenge in it. But we certainly have the physical plant that we can meet those needs. There may be some CapEx required, but nothing unachievable. The big challenge is just getting the labor force we would need. Not that we have unmet needs today, but staffing up to that level would obviously require some significant hiring in those states. It's a competitive market.

Yes, and I think as we think about the more near-term going from 45 to 50, 50 plus, we're ready for that. We have to add people, but we have the capital in our facilities already.

Thank you. And we have no remaining questions in the queue at this time.

Okay. Well, thank you. Thank you, everyone, for joining us on the call today and we appreciate your continued interest in Albany International. Of course, if you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to John Hobbs, our Director of Investor Relations. His number is 630-330-5897. Thank you and have a good day.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be available for playback later today at the Albany International website. That does conclude our conference for today. We thank you for your participation and for using AT&T conferencing service. You may now disconnect.