Ati Inc Q4 FY2022 Earnings Call

Good morning. My name is Lauren and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ATI Q4 2022 Earnings Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. A supplemental slide presentation to accompany the prepared remarks can be found on the company's website. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn over the call to Tom Wright, the Vice President, Investor Relations and FP&A.

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to ATI's fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. Today's discussion is being broadcast on our website. Participating in today's call are Bob Wetherbee, Board Chair, President and CEO; and Don Newman, Executive Vice President and CFO. Bob and Don will focus on our fourth quarter and full year highlights and key messages. Before starting our prepared remarks, I want to draw your attention to the supplemental presentation that accompanies this call. Those slides provide additional color and details on our results and outlook and can be found on our website ATImaterials.com. After our prepared remarks, we'll open the line for questions. As a reminder, all forward-looking statements are subject to various assumptions and caveats. These are noted in the earnings release and in the slide presentation. Now I'll turn the call over to Bob.

Thanks, Tom. Good morning and thanks for joining us. We ended the year strong. ATI's quarterly revenue, once again topped $1 billion. That's the second quarter in a row we achieved this milestone. We ended the full year at a run rate of $4 billion in revenue, 37% higher than 2021. We're executing expertly against robust markets. We're meeting our commitments and getting better every day. Today I've summarized our performance in four key headlines. Headline one; we're achieving what we set out to do. In the fourth quarter, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $140 million. This was driven by continued strength in our core aerospace and defense markets. Adjusted EPS of $0.53 surpassed the midpoint of our November guidance. The team is laser-focused on execution and it shows in our results. On a full year basis, ATI adjusted EBITDA was $549 million or 14% of sales and almost a 400 basis point increase over 2021. Adjusted earnings per share was $1.99. We generated $148 million in free cash flow. Don will dive deeper into the financials in a few minutes. Headline two. Our deliberate actions and transformation are delivering the results we projected. It comes down to our team, our capabilities and optimizing our business with discipline. Let me add a little color here starting with our team. As 2022 began, we were on the frontlines of the war for talent, hiring nearly 1,000 new team members during the year. Now with our workforce largely in place, we're focused on accelerating. Our team is quickly moving up the learning curve, now cross-qualifying from one job to multiple jobs to gain flexibility. Their productivity and proficiency grow every day. To those 1,000 new employees, I say, you made a great decision to join ATI. We look forward to performing together and to our entire team, thank you for your hard work and focused efforts. You are driving ATI's success. Next up, our capabilities; we're optimizing our existing footprint to increase opportunity. When it comes to titanium and nickel melt, we're focused on two things; first, operational efficiency to increase output, and second, increasing inventory velocity. Some more color on titanium specifically. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has structurally disrupted the global titanium supply chain. An outcome of this tragic situation is the most significant titanium opportunity in years. Titanium product lead times have grown from eight weeks, just a few quarters ago to 60 weeks to 70 weeks today. We're operating with a disciplined controlled order entry process that leads to optimal use of our capacity. Last quarter, we shared our plans to increase near-term titanium melt capacity for aerospace and defense applications by 25% using our existing assets. Now we're revising this plan upward based on overwhelming customer commitments. We’re increasing near-term capacity, not just by 25%, we'll increase by 35% over the 2022 baseline. It requires only nominal CapEx, less than $10 million, which is included in our CapEx guidance. Clearly, demand is growing and the team is responding quickly. It's been a busy 90 days. We've restarted a melt shop in Oregon, melting the first ingots a few weeks ago. It was actually out there last week. Put my hands safely on it. It feels great to see the output. We expect production to ramp through the first half of 2023 and we'll start to see benefits from that capacity in the second half of this year. On top of that, our previously announced brownfield investment to further increase long-term titanium melt capacity is on track to produce first ingots by the end of 2024. Customers are committing to this capacity as well. This brownfield investment is within the scope of previously provided capital estimates. It's crucial to ATI's ability to meet the significant long-term titanium demand. Those of you listening to this call likely aren't the people placing orders for titanium these days, but you probably know some people that are and if you're speaking to anyone about it, my advice is to get those remaining contracts signed up soon. There's very little capacity in 2023 that's unspoken for and that's increasingly true for 2024 and beyond. Some of our product lines actually have started customer commitments and bookings in early 2025. So it's a tight market. The specialty rolled products business transformation and footprint consolidation is nearly complete. We're on track to produce first coils at the new bright anneal furnace in Vandergrift, Pennsylvania, in the next 90 days. Full qualification and production will come soon after. This bright anneal furnace provides our customers with state-of-the-art sheet finishing capabilities and optimizes our operating footprint to significantly streamline production flow. My third headline today; we're performing in growing markets, especially our aerospace and defense core. Our repositioning to an aerospace and defense leader is well on its way. In the fourth quarter, our overall product mix attributed to aerospace and defense increased to 53% of total sales, up 12 points over the same period last year. In reality, I think we have a good shot to see our A&D product mix go north of 60% by the back half of 2023. The progress we've made is really great and continues and we're well on our way to the 65% goal we've discussed with you earlier. Why is this important? These markets offer premium growth rates and higher margins compared to commoditized products and markets. Those factors provide great opportunity for ATI to generate cash and create shareholder value. It's worth noting that quarter-over-quarter jet engine and airframe sales were flat versus Q3. We attribute this primarily to efforts across the supply chain to control year-end inventory. This was accentuated by planned shutdowns and intentional order recalibrations in the near term to increase the industry's supply chain reliability for the longer term. We expect a strong growth trend to resume in the first quarter. The momentum in our core markets is driving profitable growth across the enterprise. In our HPMC segment, Q4 sales of commercial aerospace products increased by 85% compared to the prior year. Total aerospace and defense sales comprised 83% of HPMC revenue in the fourth quarter. Year-over-year, total HPMC segment sales climbed by over 40%. EBITDA margins expanded over 400 basis points. The strong operating margin growth reflects higher sales of next-generation jet engine products as well as higher operating levels. In the AA&S segment, commercial aero sales grew by 113% versus the prior year. Total A&D sales were over 30% of that segment's Q4 revenue. This mix improvement, along with the ongoing efficiency benefits of our transformation, drove a 30% increase in full year total AA&S sales. EBITDA margins improved by over 300 basis points versus 2021, a clear indication to me, and hopefully to you, that our transformation is paying off. Headline number four, the modest headwinds we're experiencing impact only a minor portion of our business, and that portion continues to get smaller. We see some recessionary softness in construction, mining, and general industrial end markets. The good news, due to our transformation, a little more than 15% of our AA&S segment is exposed to those headwinds. That's a much smaller portion than in the past. We continue to face near-term softness in our Asian Precision Rolled Strip business. There's a lot of uncertainty there. While we see some positive signals, we're forecasting this business to remain at current levels or even modestly contract until we see a clear upward trend. What I can say for sure, we'll be ready when Asian demand picks up. Let's go to a quick review of our markets and what we see heading into 2023. In commercial aerospace, as I mentioned earlier, we're in the most significant production ramp this industry has seen in several decades. ATI's 2022 jet engine sales doubled from the prior year, an astounding ramp rate. 2022 airframe sales grew 79% versus 2021. Recovery of the airframe market for ATI has lagged the engine throughout 2022. But looking ahead, that's changing. We've been watching for two signals to indicate the commercial aerospace market is at a critical positive inflection point. I'm pleased to report we've seen both in recent weeks. On the narrow-body side, we've been awaiting increased clarity on future 737 MAX demand. December's mega order from India is a big step toward reducing inventory. Add to that, the Chinese Aviation Authorities declaration in January that the MAX is approved to return to service. And then just this week, Boeing announced a fourth 737 MAX assembly line in Everett, Washington. These are growth catalysts. The second signal we've been watching for is the resurgence of 787 production on the wide-body side. United Airlines' order of 100 Boeing 787s was clearly good news on this front and reinforces exactly what we've been anticipating, even a little earlier than we expected. Positive growth catalyst number two. We expect ATI airframe product shipments to accelerate throughout 2023. In our other core markets, defense, growth in global spending continues to create significant opportunities for ATI. In the near term, we're seeing a record level of demand for products like titanium armor going into new military vehicles. In the fourth quarter of 2022, ATI Defence sales grew 18% versus Q4 of 2021. The sequential increase was driven largely by accelerated support for the Navy's carrier and submarine fleets and increased shipments for military rotorcraft applications. We expect 2023 defense sales to be strong in these subsectors as well as ground vehicle armor and military aircraft. I think most of us saw the news of the Allied Nations sending tanks to support Ukraine. I think it's just one more reminder of how quickly things have escalated in terms of demand for defense materials. We expect that demand to be sustained for multiple years based on all the signals that we're getting from the federal government. In addition to our core A&D markets, we leverage our expertise to critical adjacent applications with aero-like characteristics. This includes specialty energy, medical, and electronics. We're seeing growth in these markets, too. I'll now turn the call over to Don to walk through financials and guidance. So I'll be back after that to conclude and take us into Q&A.

Thanks Bob. Today, I'll share details on three areas of ATI's performance. One, our 2022 Q4 and full year results; two, the 2023 outlook; and three, updates on the 2025 targets shared during our investor conference. Let's start with highlights of our Q4 performance. As Bob noted, Q4 marked our second consecutive quarter with over $1 billion in revenue. Not only are sales up, we're on track with our strategy of shifting product mix to value-add. Aerospace and defense sales were 53% of total revenue in Q4, that's up from 51% in Q3 and up 1,200 basis points from Q4 2021. Q4 2022 EBITDA margins were 13.9% compared to 12.4% in Q4 2021. Value-add sales mix, increased production levels, and diligent cost management all contributed to the margin percentage expansion. Fourth quarter EPS was $0.53, $0.01 higher than the midpoint of our guidance range. As we dig further into our performance, I'll highlight a few of the key takeaways as we see them. First, as you can clearly see in our numbers, sales are growing in the differentiated markets where we are valued the most. Secondly, we're improving profitability. Our significantly higher adjusted EBITDA reflects the benefits of our business transformation. Full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA was $549 million, an increase of $258 million and 89% from 2021. Compared to full year 2019, EBITDA increased 25% on revenue that is nearly $300 million below 2019 levels. Full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA margins were 14.3%. That's nearly 400 basis points better than 2021 and 360 basis points higher than 2019. These significant improvements reflect the impact of our transformation, structural cost reductions, and continued focus on mix and price improvement. What else contributed to the year-over-year gains volume growth, increased metal prices, $34 million in COVID incentives, and $10 million in tariff refunds. Those COVID incentives helped to offset operating efficiencies as we hired and trained nearly 1,000 new workers. Pass-through revenues due to metal volatility dampened margin percentage performance since they typically generate little or even zero profits. Otherwise, we would have delivered even better margin percentages in 2022. 2022 adjusted EPS was $1.99, up from $0.13 per share in 2021. We recognize that cash generation is key to value creation. In 2022, we generated $148 million of free cash flow compared to our guidance of greater than $90 million. It is also significantly higher than our 2021 free cash flow of $6 million. Third, I want to share progress on two contributors to value creation, working capital and CapEx. We ended the year with managed working capital at 30% of revenue. Last quarter, I shared that we were targeting working capital to be in the low 30s by the end of 2022 and expected to hit our 30% target in 2023. The operating teams continue to amaze, outperforming expectations and hitting the 30% working capital target sooner than planned. It benefited 2022 cash generation and liquidity, and positions us for additional future improvements. One more note on working capital. In Q4, customers made advanced payments to lock in their 2023 production slots. This is another signal of strong titanium and nickel demand. This served to pull forward approximately $30 million of 2023 cash flow into Q4. When it comes to we continue to maintain strict discipline. Capital expenditures totaled approximately $130 million in 2022. We also accrued $38 million for capital items at year-end. This was due to supply chain equipment delays and resulting timing of payments. The accrued capital items will roll into 2023 CapEx. Even so, we expect to keep 2023 CapEx within the $250 million target we set in our last February's investor conference. More on that in a minute. The fourth key takeaway to highlight our strong balance sheet, which provides a stable foundation for value creation. We closed out 2022 with more than $1.1 billion of liquidity. That includes $584 million in cash and $538 million available under the ABL facility. The net debt ratio was 2.2x at the close of 2022, down from 4x at the beginning of the year, great headway on our goal to delever the balance sheet. When it comes to pension, we are now 88% funded on a GAAP basis. Our net pension liability at the end of 2022 was $219 million, down from $396 million at the end of 2021. What accounts for the drop in that liability? Increases in discount rates and company contributions offset by negative asset returns. The 20% negative asset returns in 2022 reflect pullback in the broader financial markets. Asset returns and discount rates can change from period to period, but I want to be clear, we remain focused on executing the pension glide path. Our strategy remains the same, and we are advancing. We are near completion of our current stock buyback program. In 2022, we repurchased 5.2 million shares for a cash cost of $140 million at an average price of roughly $26.92 per share. We have $10 million remaining on the current Board approved program. Now let's talk about full year 2023 outlook. Bottom line for 2023, it will be another year of robust, meaningful growth driven by strong and growing markets. The demand is there. While inflation and supply chain challenged us, we successfully offset the impact in 2022 through pricing actions, pass-throughs, and capturing offsetting efficiencies. While inflation seems to be slowing and the supply chain is normalizing, a degree of uncertainty is still expected in 2023. With the team well practiced and taking quick and deliberate action, we believe we can achieve similar success in offsetting negative factors. Postretirement benefit costs, which include pension and OPEB expense, will increase the net $36 million in 2023. That's within the estimated $30 million to $40 million range shared in our last earnings call. The expense increase is largely due to changes in actuarial discount rates and negative asset returns in 2022. The additional expense will not impact 2023 contributions to the plan. As a matter of fact, we made our 2023 voluntary contribution of $50 million earlier this week, planned on another $50 million contribution in 2024 as planned. We have made tremendous progress on the pension in recent years. Since 2013, total plan participants have declined more than 62% and there are now fewer than 900 active participants. We have also worked out net liabilities, executed numerous annuitization transactions, and made voluntary contributions to the plan. We have a clear objective, execute the glide path strategy to eliminate pension impacts. Now what are EPS expectations for 2023? We expect 2023 adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2 to $2.30 per share. That includes a $0.24 impact from the postretirement expense increase. Nonrecurring items in 2022 and the increased postretirement expense in 2023 can impair visibility of our underlying EPS growth year-over-year. Removed from the equation impacts of COVID incentives, tariff refunds, and the incremental postretirement expense, the result, underlying EPS is increasing roughly 40% year-over-year at the midpoint of our 2023 guidance. That's the bottom line about earnings. Now how are we thinking about cash generation? We expect full year 2023 free cash flow to be between $125 million and $175 million. As I shared, we generated $148 million of free cash in 2022. Now adjust for the $30 million of cash pulled forward by customers prepaying for production slots. That brings our 2022 free cash flow to roughly $120 million, closer to where we previously guided. Now think about the impact of 2023. Our 2023 free cash flow would have been $30 million higher than the present guidance. Overall, we expect managed working capital to be a $100 million use of cash in 2023, give or take. That magnitude is similar to the overall cash impact we saw from managed working capital in 2022. We anticipate 2023 capital expenditures will be in the range of $200 million to $240 million, including the $38 million carried over from 2022 into 2023.

Thanks, Don. I completely agree with you on the significant opportunity that's in front of ATI as well as the fact that we're well positioned to go get it. 2022 as a year of growth and preparation for us. Our strategic efforts put us in a strong position across ATI. The markets, ready; orders, in capabilities and equipment, running faster every day with capacity increasing and the team already hard at work. Now we're building on our momentum. We're accelerating to meet and exceed our 2025 targets. We're proud of our 2022 results. More specifically, I'm extremely proud of the team that produced them. We're looking forward to even more to come. We are proven to perform. Operator, we're ready for the first question.

Our first question comes from Richard Safran from Seaport Global.

Bob, I wanted to follow up on your opening comments; continuing remarks, Don, this may also be for you as well. I'm trying to get a sense of how titanium is going to affect your mix and margins as we look going forward. I'm wondering if titanium and alloy sales are going to be accretive to margins. And from what I'm gathering based on what you said, and correct me if I'm wrong, it looks like the impact is going to be in some time in '24, if not '25. Is that right?

Yes, this is Don. I'll give you the short answer. Yes, as titanium increases in our mix, we would expect that to be accretive to our margins. And as far as timing goes, we're seeing it unfold now and it will continue to build momentum through 2024 and 2025.

And second here, on your comments about defence, I wanted to know if you could take a little bit longer view on defence growth, how you're thinking about that and how you think that's going to reshape the portfolio and impact your mix. And since you're selling materials, where you own the IP, I'm just wondering how defence margins might compare with commercial margins.

Yes. I have a few questions to address. First, regarding defence margins, I believe they will eventually align with commercial aerospace margins for similar metal units. While commercial aerospace often has more variety in specific titanium and nickel grades, I anticipate that for common specifications, the margins will converge as we manage our capacity. When it comes to opportunities, we are enthusiastic about the developments in defence, aside from the unfortunate situation in Ukraine that is boosting ground vehicle sales. We believe we are well positioned with naval carriers and submarine fleets, and we expect to see significant benefits from the ACAS program, which is a major long-term initiative. We have also received some contracts related to next-generation military vehicles, particularly the Mobile Protected Firepower project. The introduction of these vehicles is notable, especially since the Abrams tank relies heavily on titanium for its lightweight construction. Considering all these factors, we anticipate long-term growth in the double-digit mid-teens range, driven by differentiated materials that add substantial value to the final products. We feel well established with numerous mission-critical platforms for the U.S. I hope this answers your question, Richard.

Of course, it does. Appreciate it.

Our next question is from Phil Gibbs from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Is this titanium debottlenecking, the 35% from 25% you had mentioned a couple of months ago? Does that involve rescoping the brownfield because I remember the brownfield was 35%. So is this staying at 60%? Or is this moving to 70%?

It's additive to the total mix. It doesn't change our expectations from the brownfield investment. You're right, our total capacity is increasing to nearly 70%. You did the math correctly. We're excited about this. The long lead time items currently on order are going to be significant. We're pleased that demand has been robust and customer commitments have been strong, which is why we raised the short-term demand capacity projection from 25% to 35%. We were on-site last week, and it's exciting to see the ramp-up in progress.

And you feel all this added capacity is supported by customer commitments.

We do. And it's moving from the talk about it to the commit to it phase and a lot of those commitments have been made based on what we're seeing in the market. I think over the last 90 days, the reality of the demand in 2023 is coming to the market, and we're seeing lots of interest and our lead times are stretching out to show it. So the simple answer is yes. We feel the customers are committing and have committed in many cases, to the capacity.

Do those involve some of these prepayments that you've mentioned? It sounded like it was a $30 million tailwind to cash in the fourth quarter now, does that $30 million become a $30 million headwind as you ship against those commitments next year?

I wouldn't call it a headwind.

Do you have to give it back?

I would approach it like this: first, the willingness of customers to make prepayments serves as a clear indicator of strong market demand. Essentially, the cash flow we anticipated for 2023 has been brought forward into the fourth quarter. We don’t see this as negatively impacting our 2023 performance. In fact, our cash flow guidance for 2023 still remains at a midpoint of $150 million, reflecting that we haven’t reduced it by $30 million. Ultimately, the key takeaway here is that those advanced payments confirm robust demand, which we've emphasized multiple times during this call. This is not a temporary fluctuation; our customers are experiencing a consistent need for our materials, and we expect that demand to continue growing.

Our next question is from Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

I want to start off asking about the profitability in HPMC. And how we should think about the drop-through in 2023. Some quarters were stronger than others in '22 that last quarter looked a little bit lighter than we expected and kind of moving from the 18% this year to the low to mid-20s out in 2025. How to think about that progression, whether it's kind of back-end weighted or more even across the years.

Yes. I think the easiest way to think about it is, we've talked about incremental margins going forward north of 30%, I think is what I've shared. We still expect that, that is intact. We did note that with the additional $36 million of postretirement expense in 2023, that's going to create some earnings headwinds. It will also a bit dilutive to the overall margins for the business. This is not HPMC specific, but for the overall margins. The good news is we're going to more than make up for that roughly 80 basis point to 90 basis point headwind due to the postretirement. Now when you think about HPMC, there's strong growth that we're seeing in that business. The mix is changing as we get more and more of the next-gen products that are being sold. So I think you should expect to see continued expansion into the kind of range that we talked about in our investor conference, which I believe we said expect for HPMC margins in the low to mid-20s, and we still see ourselves on track to accomplish that in that time frame.

Okay. Excellent. Regarding the incremental titanium growth expected in 2023, should we anticipate most of that coming from the airframe side, particularly in AA&S? You mentioned growth catalysts for the 787, and while it seems Boeing is moving toward higher rates, is that the primary reason for the increased demand you're observing? Or is it more widespread? If it's broader, could you elaborate on the additional drivers?

Yes, a couple of questions in there, Seth. I think the question. The first one was around near-term titanium impact. So we're going to be ramping up here in the first half, and it takes a little while to go from melt to final product in the back half. So from a top line perspective, we'd expect $50 million, $60 million of top line revenue from this additional melt in 2023 is probably a good estimate that Don would let me get out there for you. And then in the second half, yes, clearly, in the second half, you asked about AA&S and HPMC, I think it could probably be 50-50 between the two. It's titanium 64 for the most part. So it can go a lot of different ways. So if you're modeling it, I feel comfortable 50-50 between the two segments. I think that was the first set of questions. The second part was around 787 demand. And is that the principal issue I would say we're not done with the titanium share reapportionments from the prior sources. People still have material flowing from Russia, and they're working hard to get their supply chain resorted or reaffirmed up for what they want. You remember the VSMPO guys are a very integrated business. And the alternative is not so integrated. So there's still a lot of work to be done, I think, in that supply chain. So we're seeing part of that still continuing. I can't speak for our customers. But we obviously exited our joint venture with the Russian and we did it for our customers. It just took us a little while to exit from that. So it's not unusual that they would do that. The widebodies in general, we've repositioned our mix that we're more and more agnostic as to which OEM we're supplying. And certainly, the wide-body phenomenon in the short term has been in the U.S. in terms of the shortfall, but Europe's been good. Airbus has been good on the wide-body and we're benefiting from our relationship with them there. So I think the catalysts that I would say are 787 demand, wide-body in general, the realignment of supply chains. And then I think we're on the verge of starting to see some of that early 777 stuff. I know it's a ways before it enters into service. But I think that catalyst is coming very, very quickly, probably in the 2024 time frame given the long lead times that we see. So we're pretty excited across the board on widebody in general. And our long-term guidance when we did our 2025 guidance of about 100 narrow bodies, 20 wide bodies by 2025, those estimates are looking a little more conservative than we thought. So we're pretty excited about all the catalysts coming together.

Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna from Cowen.

I wanted to ask you about lead times right now. How far out are you guys quoting on your various aerospace products, so airframe jet engines? And how has that changed over the last 6 months?

In the last six months, we've noticed a shift during the COVID pandemic where our relationship with distributors has evolved. While they still play an important role, our team has done a great job aligning more closely with OEM demand. As a result, we're receiving more direct signals in aerospace and defense. Customers are now willing to place orders for some products as far into Q1 of 2025, and we have a controlled order entry program to manage these commitments. However, for certain products, like titanium, availability in Q4 of 2023 is limited, and slots are filling up quickly. Regarding specialized alloy mill products from our North Carolina facility, we anticipate production into early 2024, potentially reaching Q2 of 2024. Compared to six months ago, the lead times have significantly increased. Previously, orders could be placed within a six to eight-week window in 2020 and 2021, but now the average lead time is between 50 to 70 weeks, depending on the product.

Wow. Okay. Do you have any long-term contracts coming up for renewal over the next year? I'm curious about how pricing might change with these renewals, as it seems like this is a favorable environment for prices to increase. Is that significant in any way?

We don't have any major long-term contracts coming up in 2023. They are somewhat staggered. The first significant transition year to new contracts will likely be 2025. Most of the large OEMs are off contracts, while many contracts extend to 2030 or 2035, and most of these include inflationary or pricing adjustments. For those without contractual commitments or long-term relationships, spot pricing in the market has increased significantly. We are taking advantage of that opportunity. Therefore, I believe there are pricing opportunities from both raw material adjustments and overall demand.

Yes. Okay. And last one, just on the VSMPO opportunity. Has Boeing taken more urgent steps? Have you heard from any other OEMs besides Airbus that are looking to secure supply with you?

I was in Seattle earlier this week celebrating the delivery of the final 747. It was a significant moment in history, and I’m proud to have been part of it. I believe all the OEMs are acting with urgency, and the recovery in the widebody sector is driving that. It’s a complex situation; simply redirecting purchases isn’t straightforward due to the intricate supply chain and crucial specifications involved. However, over the last six months, there has been progress, and I sense urgency wherever I go. Whenever I receive a phone call from a customer, there’s a clear reason behind it, but we are well-positioned to capitalize on this. I have been in discussions with more customers alongside our Chief Operating Officer, Kim Fields. We regularly engage with customers to clarify demand, and they are actively working on it with urgency.

Our next question is from David Strauss from Barclays.

Is there any capital deployment assumed in your guidance for 2023?

So David, when you say capital deployment, could you be more specific?

Yes. I wonder if there is any assumption in the guidance you provided regarding returning cash, paying down debt, or share buybacks?

Yes. So what I would say is there's a couple of elements that I would highlight. One, of course, when we think about capital deployment, we kind of have three legs to that stool. One is investing for growth. That's, for us, primarily focused on the CapEx. We've talked about our CapEx guide at $200 million to $240 million in 2023 and then the second leg on that stool is about delevering and so to us, there's two things that come to mind. One is the pension and first and foremost, we're making voluntary contributions to the pension plan. This year, we have a $50 million contribution. We actually made that contribution earlier this week. So that is out of the way for 2023. We have another $50 million contribution that we have planned for 2024. And then in terms of other debt actions, we really don't have any imminent debt maturities that we're going to have to deal with. So there's no repayments that are required when it comes to bank debt or anything of that sort. And nothing is planned. I don't plan to take out any of our ABL term loans or anything like that. And then the third leg, of course, is returning capital to shareholders. That's extraordinarily important to us. In 2022, we repurchased about $140 million of shares. We've got $10 million left on that $150 million program. So we'll finish that share repurchase program up in early 2022. And then, of course, we're expecting that we're going to generate a healthy amount of cash flow as the aero ramp unfolds. And our expectation is that we're going to put that money to work and returning capital to shareholders continues to be a very, very important thing to us, and so it will continue to be a feature. So at this point, the board has not approved additional share repurchases beyond the remainder of the existing program, but I wouldn't read anything into that fact because of the timing of an approval would be after we finish up the existing program. I hope that helps.

Yes, sure. Regarding the longer-term free cash flow conversion, it seems that in 2023, you are aiming for about 50% free cash flow conversion on net income, which is likely around 25% or 20% on EBITDA. Previously, you mentioned a target of 90% free cash flow conversion for 2025, aiming for approximately $750 million to $800 million of EBITDA. What are the fundamental components for achieving free cash flow in that context?

I'm glad to address that. Your calculations are correct. If you take the EPS guidance and translate that into cash and cash conversion, we are currently in the 50% range. We've seen a notable improvement in this metric over the past couple of years. Our goal is to achieve over 90% cash conversion by 2025. The foundation of cash generation is profitability, which has already increased and is projected to rise significantly. This will be crucial. We are enhancing the efficiency of our managed working capital, having made considerable progress in 2022 by reaching our target of 30%. We will continue to move forward and improve in this area. Additionally, capital expenditures are important. This year, our capital spending is projected around $220 million. My previous expectations remain that from now until 2025, our CapEx spending will gradually decline. By 2025, I anticipate our capital spending will approximate our depreciation rate, which should be between $150 million and $170 million. All these factors contribute to enhancing our cash conversion metric. I also expect that by 2025, we will still be a limited cash taxpayer, which will be advantageous for cash conversion during that timeframe.

Our final question is from Timna Tanners from Wolfe Research.

The first question is about exploring other end markets, especially since we've focused heavily on aerospace and defense. While those markets may be less emphasized, it's encouraging to hear that you're more positive about specialty energy. Could you provide additional details on that and whether you've assessed any benefits from the IRA and their timing? On the other hand, your industrial challenges seem to differ from what we're hearing from others, so I'd appreciate more insight on that and your confidence in the timing for a recovery in China demand in the second half of the year. Why not sooner? Why H2? That information would be very helpful.

All right. There's a lot in that one. Do you want to take the first one, Don on the China, or you want me to do?

Sure, I'm happy to do it. Regarding the challenges in China, the restrictions have eased significantly. However, the downside is the increase in COVID cases. We're observing these actual COVID cases as obstacles in China, and we noticed this trend in the later part of Q4. We've seen a slight decline in early Q1, and we hope these challenges will subside. Based on the current situation, we expect these issues to persist in the first half of the year. That said, it's possible that the COVID cases may recover faster than we anticipate, and our business is prepared for that. However, being cautious about the business outlook and trajectory, we believe it will take us through the first half.

That's right. I think the thing is we want to see it before we forecast it. That's the bottom line. Let's see it materialized because there's been a lot of ups and downs in that market over the last couple of years. I think your other question, Timna, was around oil and gas and energy in particular. I think we see strength specialty, specialty energy, yes, we definitely see the oil and gas side with the subsea, the offshore and the subsea systems, nickel clad, various things, specialty alloy things for the deepwater or subsea systems. That's growing and continues to come back strong. We continue to see in the specialty side, lots of activity in next-generation technologies, civilian nuclear is actually coming back. So we feel pretty optimistic about those applications. And I would say, we've had a long history with fuel gas desulfurization of coal plants in Asia. And although that market kind of goes up and down a little bit with the nickel price in terms of how they want to purchase. But bottom line is we feel pretty good about those markets with continued growth, I would say, high single digits, low double-digit kind of growth through 2023, and you asked about inflation reduction act impact and timing. To be candid, we haven't factored that in. That would be an upside if it came. I'm not sure it will come to the markets we're serving. A lot of the opportunities we see for specialty energy actually are outside the United States. So probably not such a big impact for us.

Okay. And if I could sneak one more in. You mentioned a couple of times in the outlook slides the ongoing or benefits from restoring trends in material sourcing. I just wonder if you can explain a little more what that means and along those same lines, I know in the past, you've talked about moly prices, molybdenum is exploded. Does that even matter anymore for you?

Let's see. There are a few points here, Timna. We always pay attention to molybdenum. With the material pass-through, we strive to manage it effectively and minimize risk. The team has done a solid job with this, but there are still questions regarding the speed and pattern of price increases. Regarding your second question about reshoring, the most evident area is in commercial aerospace. A less obvious area is in medical supplies; we've noticed material purchases shifting to locations like Russia and China, which weren't as common before. That supply chain is now considering reshoring. Additionally, we observe activity in the electronics sector, especially with the significant chip manufacturing development in places like Phoenix. We supply specific materials for chip manufacturing precursors, which has been beneficial for us, ensuring supply chain reliability and quality. So, in electronics and medical, those are two notable examples. Moreover, we have historically worked on sourcing materials from China, and there's a growing awareness about the importance of local supply chains for input materials. Everything we produce involves alloys that require ingredients sourced globally. We’ve been focusing on how to near shore or reshore some of those materials. I hope these examples provide further insight into what's happening in that regard.

Thank you. That is now the end of the Q&A session. And I will now hand back over to Tom Wright for closing remarks.

Thank you for joining us today. A replay of this call will be available on our website. This concludes the ATI fourth quarter earnings call.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.