Chubb Ltd Q3 FY2021 Earnings Call

Ladies and gentlemen, please stand by. Good day and welcome to the Chubb Limited Third Quarter 2021 earnings. Today's call is being recorded. For opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning everyone and welcome to our September 30th, 2021, third quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to Company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities, and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainty, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release, and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters. We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement. Now I'd like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. Then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team. And now my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

Good morning. We had a very strong third quarter highlighted by outstanding P&C premium revenue growth globally of 17% and simply excellent underwriting results on both the calendar and current accident year basis, despite elevated catastrophe losses. Our results were powered by double-digit commercial lines growth, strong continued underlying margin expansion, the strength of our reserves and our broad diversification of businesses. Core operating income in the quarter of $2.64 per share was up 32%, or $0.64 over prior year, to $1.2 billion, while net income of $1.8 billion was up 53% from prior year. For the year on both a net and core operating income basis, we have produced record earnings. Again, it was an active quarter for natural catastrophes. Yet with over $1.1 billion of catastrophe losses, we reported a 93.4 combined ratio, with P&C underwriting income up 58% to $617 million, which speaks to the underlying strength of our businesses and, again, broad diversification of our Company's sources of revenue and earnings, both domestically and globally. Year-to-date we have produced $2.4 billion in underwriting income for a combined ratio of 90.4, and that includes $2.1 billion of cat losses. This is shaping up to be another year of sizable weather-related loss events tied to the new normal brought on by climate change and other societal changes. Speaking again to our underwriting health on a current accident year ex-cat basis, underwriting income in the quarter was $1.4 billion, up 23% with a combined ratio of 84.8 compared to 85.7 prior year quarterly underwriting record. If we exclude the one-time positive adjustment we took last year due to lower frequency of loss because of the COVID-related shutdown, our current accident year combined ratio would have improved 2 points. This is more reflective of our margin expansion. We included a simple exhibit in our press release showing the detail. The strength of our balance sheet and conservative approach to loss reserving was again in evidence this quarter, as we reported $321 million in favorable prior period reserve development. Net investment income in the quarter was $940 million, up 4.5%. Peter is going to have more to say about cats and prior period development, investment income, and book value. Turning to growth and the rate environment. As I said at the opening, P&C premiums were up nearly 17% globally, or 15.5% in constant dollars, with commercial premiums up 22% and consumer up 4%. The 17% growth for the quarter, and 14.2% for the first nine months, topped last quarter and was the strongest organic growth we have seen again since 2004. Growth in the quarter was broad-based with contributions from virtually all commercial P&C businesses globally—from our agriculture business to those serving large companies, to mid-sized and small, and most regions of the world and distribution channels. The robust commercial P&C pricing environment remains on pace in most all important regions of the world with continued year-on-year improvement in rate to exposure on the business we wrote both new and renewal. In North America, total P&C net premiums grew over 17% with commercial premium up about 22.5%. Excluding agriculture, which had a fantastic quarter in its own right with premium growth of over 40%, commercial P&C premiums were up over 16.5% in North America. New business was up 13% for all commercial lines and renewal retention remains strong at over 97% on a premium basis. The 16.5% commercial premium growth is a composite of 15.5% growth in our major accounts and specialty business, and over 18% in our middle market and small commercial business. Simply a standout quarter for this division. Overall rates increased in North America commercial lines by over 12%. Once again, loss costs are currently trending about 5.5% and can vary up or down depending upon line of business. And again, like last quarter, just to remind you, in general, commercial lines loss costs for short-tail classes are trending around 4%, though we anticipate this to increase in the future. While long-tail loss costs, excluding workers' compensation, are trending about 6%. Let me give you a better sense of the rate increase movement in North America. In Major Accounts, which serves the largest companies in America, rates increased in the quarter by just over 13%. Risk-management related primary casualty rates were up over 6%. General casualty rates were up about 21% and vary by category of casualty. Property rates were up 12% and financial lines rates were up 17%. In our E&S wholesale business, rates increased by 16% in the quarter. Property rates were up 13%, casualty was up 20%, and financial lines rates were up about 21%. In our middle market business, rates increased in the quarter nearly 9.5%. Rates for property were up over 11%. Casualty rates were up 9.5%, excluding workers' comp, with comp rates down 2% and financial lines rates were up 18%. Turning to our International General Insurance Operations. Commercial P&C premiums grew 20.5% on a published basis, or 16% in constant dollars. International retail commercial P&C grew nearly 17% or 12% in constant dollars, while our London wholesale business grew over 31%. Retail commercial P&C growth varied by region, with premiums up almost 28% in our European division. Asia-Pacific was up 15.5%, while Latin America commercial lines grew about 6.5%. Internationally, like in the U.S., in those markets where we grew, we continued to achieve improved rate-to-exposure across our commercial portfolio. In our international retail commercial P&C business, rates increased in the quarter by 15%. Property rates were up 11%, financial lines up 33%, primary and excess casualty up 7% and 11% respectively. And in our London wholesale business, rates increased in the quarter by 11%—property up 13%, financial lines up 14%, marine up 8%. Outside North America, loss costs are currently trending about 3%, though that varies by class of business and country. Consumer lines growth globally in the quarter continued to recover from the pandemic's ongoing effects on consumer-related activities. Our international consumer business grew almost 10% in the quarter on a published basis, or 5% in constant dollars. Breaking that down a little further, international personal lines grew almost 11% on a published basis, while international A&H grew over 8.5% or just 5% in constant dollars. Latin America had a particularly strong quarter in consumer with personal lines and A&H premiums up 18.5% and 17.5% respectively, powered by both our traditional and digitally focused distribution relationships. Net premiums in our North America high net worth personal lines business were up just over 1%; adjusted for non-renewals in California and COVID-related auto renewal credits, we grew 3% in the quarter. Our true high net-worth client segment, the heart of our business, grew 11% in the quarter. Overall, retentions remained strong at 95.7% and we achieved positive pricing, which includes rate and exposure, of 14% in our homeowners portfolio. The severity trends in personal lines in the U.S. remain elevated. Lastly, in our Asia-focused international life insurance business, net premiums plus deposits were up over 52% in the quarter, while net premiums in our Global Re business were up over 22%. In sum, we continue to capitalize on broad-based and favorable market conditions and improving economic conditions. All of our businesses did well or are improving—from agriculture to all forms of commercial P&C globally, both retail and wholesale, serving large companies to middle market and small, to our improving global personal lines and A&H businesses, to our Asia Life businesses, to our Global Re business. In one sentence, both growth and margin expansion are two trends that will continue. In the quarter, as you saw, we announced the definitive agreement to acquire the life and non-life insurance companies that house the personal accident, supplemental health and life insurance businesses of Cigna in Asia-Pacific for $5.75 billion in cash. As you saw, or can see from our investor presentation, these operations generate approximately $3 billion in premium revenue, have favorable underwriting margins and are not exposed to the P&C cycle. This highly complementary transaction advances our strategy to expand our presence in the Asia-Pacific region, including our Company's Asia-based life company presence, and adds significantly to our already sizable Global A&H business. Upon completion of the transaction, which we expect during 2022, Asia Pacific share of Chubb's global portfolio will represent approximately 20% of the Company. For many years, we have admired Cigna's business in Asia, including its people, product innovation, distribution and management capabilities. The underlying economics and value creation to the transaction are very attractive, and these businesses will contribute to our Company strategically for decades to come. The transaction once again demonstrates our patience in advancing our strategies and confirms our consistent and disciplined approach to holding capital for risk and growth, both organic and inorganic. Our Company has considerable earning power and a patient hand to deploy capital effectively over time. We return excess of what we need to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases, while we continue to build future revenue and earnings generation capabilities. In conclusion, this was another excellent quarter of growing our business and our exposures, expanding our margins and investing in our future, all in a period with substantial cats, which are not unexpected. My management team and I have never been more confident in our ability to continue to outperform and deliver strong, sustainable shareholder value. I will now turn the call over to Peter, and then we'll be back to take your questions.

Thank you, Evan, and good morning again everyone. As you've just heard from Evan, our overall franchise continues to deliver outstanding top-line growth, margin improvement, and profit growth. Now let me discuss our balance sheet and capital management. Our financial position remains exceptionally strong, including our cash flow, liquidity, investment portfolio, reserves, and capital. It all starts with our operating performance, which produced $3.3 billion in operating cash flow for the quarter and $8.5 billion for the first nine months. We continue to remain extremely liquid with cash and short-term investments of $5.1 billion at the end of the quarter, even after our significant capital management actions. Among the capital-related actions in the quarter, we returned $1.9 billion to shareholders, including $1.5 billion in share repurchases and $346 million in dividends. Through the nine months ended September 30, we returned over $5 billion, including almost $4 billion in share repurchases, or over 5% of our outstanding shares, and dividends of over $1 billion. The agreement to acquire Cigna's A&H and life insurance businesses in Asia Pacific is not expected to impact our share repurchase and dividend commitments. Our investment portfolio of $122 billion continues to be of very high quality, and we have not made any material changes during the quarter to our investment allocation. The portfolio increased $759 million in the quarter and at September 30 our investment portfolio remained in an unrealized gain position of $2.9 billion after tax. Adjusted pretax net investment income for the quarter was $940 million, similar to last quarter and $40 million higher than our estimated range, benefiting from higher private equity distributions.

As I noted on the second quarter earnings call, our investment income is based on many factors. And notwithstanding our better-than-expected results over the last few quarters, we continue to expect our quarterly run rate to be approximately $900 million. Pretax catastrophe losses for the quarter were $1.1 billion, with about $1 billion in the U.S., of which $806 million was from Hurricane Ida, and $135 million from international events, of which $95 million was from flood losses in Europe. Our reserve position remains strong with net reserves increasing $1.7 billion.

Or 3.2% on a constant dollar basis, reflecting the impact of catastrophe losses in the quarter and 2021 growth, in particular from our agricultural business, which has a seasonality impact on reserves. We had favorable prior period development of $321 million pretax, which includes $33 million of adverse development related to legacy environmental exposures. The remaining favorable development of $354 million was split approximately 30% in long-tail lines, principally from accident years 2017 and prior, and 70% in short-tail lines, principally from our 2020 North America personal lines. Our paid-to-incurred ratio was 73% for the quarter and a very strong 75% after adjusting for tax, prior period development and agriculture. Book value decreased by $744 million, or 1%, reflecting $1.16 billion in core operating income and a net gain on our investment portfolio of $190 million, which was more than offset by foreign exchange losses of $305 million, and the $1.9 billion of share repurchases and dividends. Book and tangible book value per share increased 0.6% and 0.4% respectively from last quarter. Our reported ROE for the quarter and year-to-date was 12.3% and 14.4% respectively. Our core operating ROE and core operating return on tangible equity were 8.2% and 12.6% respectively for the quarter. As a reminder, we did not include the fair value mark on our private equity funds in core operating income, as many of our peer companies do. For comparison purposes, our core operating ROE increases by 5 percentage points to 13.2% and our core operating income increases by $1.61 per share to $4.25. Year-to-date our core operating ROE, including the fair value mark on our private equity funds, would be 13.8%. I'll turn the call back over to Karen.

Thank you. At this point, we're happy to take your questions.

Ladies and gentlemen, we will begin with Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley.

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Evan, in your comments and in the press release, you talked about some actions because of climate change—just the thoughtful steps you are going to take. Evan, can you talk about what some of those are and what we can expect to see from those actions either on exposure changes or cat load changes that might change in the future because of what you're doing?

To answer it a little differently than that: it's a broader statement that I'm making and in the press release it was not simply about Chubb—it's the industry. The industry, Chubb included, has seen in recent years a rise in the frequency and severity of insured losses globally from commercial and personal property arising from those cats, and especially losses from less well modeled or non-modeled causes. Our objective with all of this is twofold: price business adequately—get paid for the risk—and secondly, understand and manage accumulation of exposures against weather-related perils, modeled and non- or less well-modeled. Factors that are contributing to the rise in loss actually fall into three categories. First, we're seeing changes globally in the frequency and severity of perils such as tropical storms, wildfires, and floods. However, the historical record provides an interesting context when thinking about today's risk environment. For example, recent landfalling U.S. hurricane activity is not especially anomalous in either frequency or frequency of intense storms as measured by wind speed compared to, say, the first part of the 20th century. Repeats of storms from this earlier period would in fact generate losses far greater than any modern storm in terms of industry loss, all of which is already contemplated in our modeling and risk management. Having said that, there is evidence now that the amount of precipitation contained within the storms appears to be greater and that is increasing the amount of loss emanating from events. The second factor that contributes is changes to the exposure footprint of insurable personal and commercial properties: increases in actual exposure units and values from GDP growth, demographic shifts to higher risk geographies, and aging building stock are all examples of factors that are leading to higher loss potential. And finally, third, the impact of natural events is further amplified by increasingly vulnerable infrastructure. For example, the levee failures during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the systemic electric grid failure during the 2021 Texas freeze. We're actively working to reflect the impact of all of these trends in our pricing, risk selection, and exposure management. We have significant advances in modeling, especially for secondary perils such as floods and wildfires, but there's still a way to go. Our loss costs consider recent experience together with explicit recognition of factors that can be quantified, such as sea level rise, exposure growth, or demographic shifts. We continue to refine our portfolio management to manage risk aggregation at an ever more granular level. The net result for us is dynamically risk-adjusted rates that appropriately reflect changes in charges for both recent loss experience and exposure concentrations. So we're striving to stay on top of this, we have an awful lot of resources dedicated to the effort, and frankly, I think we're in pretty good shape.

Okay. Thank you for the details—appreciate that. Second question then: I appreciate the details on the loss trend numbers that you gave this quarter; clearly less of the base going on the casualty side with loss trends specifically on the casualty side here of the long tail that you gave at 5.5 or 6.5. What pieces of that, if you can kind of break that down, would be most worrisome to you that could make that number change? Because of all the dynamics going on—some financial inflation, some social inflation, and different things that are happening there—any piece or event that you'd be more worried about that could make that number go up?

No, there's no one ingredient I would single out. I'm not worried—so I wouldn't characterize it as worry. If you're worried, don't be in the casualty business. These are dynamics that are enduring. All of the ingredients—whether it is social inflation, the trial bar, litigation funding—are relevant. At this moment in time, understanding the latency because courts were closed and not taking cases has affected the lag. Then you have economic inflation and the legal environment changing with legislation; all of that has been consistent factors. Some rear their head a little more than others at times, and we're mindful of all of that. That's what we try to do a good job of anticipating. By the nature of it, you can only anticipate so much. The future is unknowable until it arrives. Therefore, you manage conservatively: declare bad news early and good news late. Thanks for the question.

We'll now move to a question from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

Hi, good morning. I was just hoping to get an update on the excess capital position. Capital return has been a highlight so far this year, as earnings power and capital generation have been strong. I know in the past, at the end of last year, you said excess capital was about a two-point drag on the ROE, but since then you've returned about $5 billion through buybacks and dividends. So where do you guys think the excess capital position was at the end of the quarter?

Yeah. It's in the range of about—it's come down from about two to about 1.5.

Got it. And then just thinking about potential uses of capital: obviously you still have some headroom on the $5 billion share repurchase. And then the Cigna acquisition. I guess I'm also just wondering, any thoughts around the timing of buying up the additional ownership stake in Wutai, and how we should be thinking about that?

When it comes to Wutai—the ownership stake—buying that up to over 50%: good luck prognosticating specifically with China over the next few months. I would say the timing would be over the next number of months and then potentially going well in excess of that through 2022.

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe if I could sneak one more in: another good quarter of growth across the board, but I wanted to just drill down a little bit in North America commercial. Last quarter you talked about exposure being negative. Is that still the case, and obviously pricing and new business sounded very strong. Can you break down some of the other components of the strong growth this quarter?

Look, exposure growth in aggregate, net-net, had about a 0.5 point impact on our North America commercial lines growth. That includes both positives from economic activity and structural changes like deductible increases and retention, etc., that would go the other way, and it all nets out to about a 0.5 point.

Great. Thank you.

You're welcome.

Next we will hear from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Again you talked about robust price increases that we've seen for a while across the industry. As you think out over the course of the next year, do you think the industry can broadly maintain rate in excess of loss trend just given the underlying dynamics out there?

Elyse, I do. I don't have a crystal ball, but from everything I see right now about rates and the shape and pattern over a number of quarters, what I would call is simply a moderation in the rate of increase. When I look at that and the loss cost environment, and then our retention rates against the kinds of rates we're achieving, all of that tells me that the industry should continue to achieve rate in excess of loss cost for some time to come.

Okay. Great. And then in terms of North America commercial, the underlying loss ratio improvement was around 150 basis points year-over-year. Since you guys didn't call anything out, obviously COVID frequency impacted other segments. Is there any one-off noise or is that a pretty good indicator of the underlying margin improvement within North America commercial?

It's a pretty good underlying run-rate number. There are not one-offs.

Great. Thanks for the color.

You're welcome.

Next question will come from Mike Zirinski, Wolfe Research.

Great. Good morning. I guess I'm going back to loss costs. I might have missed some of the exact wording, Evan, but I think you said you expected some of the short-tail commercial classes to increase in the future. If you could provide some color around that?

Right now in short-tail, there is evidence of inflation in homeowners lines and it has been for some time, but not so much in commercial property paid losses. Given labor costs, commodity prices, supply chain problems, scarcity of materials, we expect costs to rise and we're building that view into future claim payments and our pricing, which is prudent. That's all I'm saying—we're anticipating ahead of it, not waiting for it to be on top of us.

I guess as a follow-up, it seemed like some carriers reported paid losses are down in casualty lines due to courts being delayed or clogged. Is Chubb seeing that too in casualty lines?

Yes. Let's not confuse the issues. What I said about short-tail is separate from the effect you've noted in casualty. The industry has said for over a year and a half that with courts closed, dockets full, there's a delay in processing or final adjudication of casualty-related claims. That's a paid-pattern change, but no good underwriter is going to take that head-fake and believe that changes ultimate loss. We don't believe it changes the trends. We therefore continue to maintain about a 6% trend factor and the pace will ultimately come through as well as the lag and incurrence.

Understood. Lastly, thanks for the granular details about the underlying loss ratio benefits in 3Q of last year. I heard your answer to Elyse's question about North America commercial. I just want to make sure since you didn't break out granular benefits last year or early 2021, should we assume there were some benefits in those same segments when thinking about future quarters and year-over-year results, mostly from personal lines?

I don't know exactly what you're referring to, but the frequency benefits you're talking about did not appear to us to be concentrated only in 3Q. They occurred across periods and you should account for that when modeling. But we don't see a one-off that only impacts a single quarter going forward.

We will now move to Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.

Thank you. Good morning. Looking at the Cigna field, can you describe any cohesiveness of those different markets across seven countries or are those marketplace dynamics more siloed?

Tracy, it's like describing countries; they're not a single market. They're individual countries with their own cultures, socioeconomic dynamics, social systems and languages. I wouldn't view it in a sterile way—Asia is vast and no different than saying can we talk about the United States and France in the same breath? You have to think of each independently. That's the whole point of managing a global business: you understand the local market idiosyncrasies, opportunities, and risks. The geographies are varied by each.

Okay. Thank you. Maybe just going back to capital management: back in February you shared S&P's decision to lower capital benchmark to AA from AAA, which helped you unlock excess capital. S&P has published an advanced notice that plans to update its capital model. We do not know a lot about it yet. My question: does this development compel you to sit on the sidelines with respect to capital deployment until more is understood? Or will you cross that bridge when more information is known?

We'll cross that bridge when more information is known. We have very close and productive dialogue on an ongoing basis with the rating agencies.

Thank you for taking my questions.

You are welcome. Thanks for asking.

Next question comes from Greg Peters with Raymond James.

Good morning, everyone. Evan, I'd like to focus on retention and recruiting. You talked about labor in your previous answer and there's a lot of news about availability of workers. Can you give us your perspective around what's going on at Chubb with retention and recruiting?

Thanks. Like all companies, it's a constant effort and it's a difficult marketplace for recruiting; retention rates are modestly lower. It's a combination of people moving around, more retirements, and lifestyle choices—clearly an outcome of COVID in many ways. We've significantly beefed up and improved our recruiting capabilities and have an intense focus on it. In aggregate, the number of open positions we had in June in North America is down today from what it was then. We're making progress and continue to make progress, but you have to grind on it. Many people want different ways to work; they want more flexibility in days or hours. While we remain a work-from-office company and we will be, we've adjusted recognizing that given today's technology—and the pandemic has accelerated that—our ability to productively work from home allows for greater flexibility. We recognize that and are adjusting our expectations around that. We want the best and the brightest, the most ambitious, to work for Chubb. We're not going to moderate our goals and objectives because of employment concerns; we're going to step up our game to make Chubb a place where those who share our ambition and want to work hard—and want some flexibility—choose to work. We're making strides. I think good strides. As I said, the overall number of open positions is down, and down not by a small amount.

Thanks for that. Relatedly, we're seeing changes in distribution—brokers consolidating, private equity roll-ups, large companies hiring producers. You highlighted your high retention ratios. Can you talk about distribution changes outside Chubb and whether there's any risk that could be disruptive to your renewal ratios?

No, I don't believe so. Chubb enjoys an extremely strong position with top brokerages and agencies. We have strong dialogue and presence, broad product capability and local capability. We're a compelling offering for brokers who need to make a market. It's pretty hard to make a market without Chubb. We bring compelling capability and tools and as brokers compete against each other, Chubb is an important ingredient in their effort to compete, and our partnership is well balanced.

Seems fair. Thanks for your time.

You're welcome.

Ryan Tunis with Autonomous has the next question.

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Another quarter of solid improvement in the policy acquisition cost ratios, especially in commercial lines. Curious what's driving that—is that better terms on reinsurance? How sustainable is that trend, Evan?

Not better terms on reinsurance. It's sustainable. It's mix-driven, predominantly within commercial lines. There is fee business and commission business, and what you see is pretty steady. On the margin, and though not unimportant, commission rates in some lines have come down as rates have increased, which also benefits results. We think it's sustainable.

I've got a follow-up on terms and conditions. At the beginning of the hard market, one of the things that bothered you was excess casualty business with $1 million attachment points becoming stale over the years. Two years later, are those attachment points broadly self-corrected? Is that something that's helping in addition to rate?

They don't self-correct automatically, but in a hard market they are an ingredient that helps clients accept rate increases. Clients are motivated and incentivized: for example, increasing an attachment point from $1 million to $2 million is often adequately priced and is a rational retention decision for a client. Attachment points, deductibles, and limits are being adjusted in today's environment and that is taking place broadly. When we look at rate increases, we include those within our definition of increase in rate where measurable and we can measure them in certain lines very well.

Do those changes tend to stick when the market softens—are attachment points and deductibles stickier than headline rate?

Yes, attachment points and deductibles tend to be much stickier than rate. Depending on the business, particularly in middle market, they tend to endure.

Thanks.

You're welcome.

We will now move to Brian Meredith with UBS.

Yes. Thanks. Two quick questions. First, what happened with the Ag business and the massive growth—was it a new client or was there something happening from an accounting perspective?

If it was a new client, they must have had a farm the size of a country. No, seriously: crop prices were up significantly year-over-year and our spring crops—corn and beans—were up 18% and 29% respectively. We had another record year in policy count acquisition growth and new acres planted by our producers. That really drove the 43% growth. In simple terms, when you apply a rate against exposure, exposure is often the commodity price of corn or beans, and those prices—which are the February prices when policies are priced—were up significantly over the prior year because commodity prices are up.

Makes sense. My second: can you talk a bit about your global A&H? I know a component is travel-related—any indication that's going to turn around here? With economic growth, I'd have thought you'd already see some nice growth out of it.

Our travel business is predominantly Asia and Latin America. Asia has been locked down until very recently where it's just starting to open. Countries like Australia that have been closed for a year-and-a-half are just going to open in November. Singapore, Thailand, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan—they've all been locked down and are just starting to open now through November. We're starting to see growth pick up; September or October was our first month where we've seen real growth and it was around 8%, which we're excited about. However, travel volumes are still off about 85% from 2019, so 8% growth has a long way to go.

Good. Thank you.

You're welcome.

We will take our last question from Meyer Shields with KBW.

Great. Thanks for fitting me in. One brief question to start: Evan, are you looking to add or shrink exposure in homeowners in Florida and California?

Meyer, I'll remind you we gave forward information that in California we were shrinking our footprint that is highly or moderately exposed to wildfire—which is not a small amount. We provided the amount of premium that related to that change because in California we cannot charge an adequate price for the risk, and not by a small amount. So someone else will have the pleasure of writing that business. We've been shrinking that footprint. In Florida we've been pretty steady.

Okay. That's helpful. Then maybe a broad question: can you talk about the opportunities and potential risks to Chubb of the infrastructure bills that Congress is now considering?

The opportunities are great. Over time it'll add a lot of construction activity around infrastructure. Passing the bill is one thing; putting shovel to ground takes time. The infrastructure bill, if I recall correctly, would generate improvements over a decade, but a trillion dollars is a lot of infrastructure. Labor will be interesting: wanting to realize those projects is one thing; having the labor to execute them is another. Congress will have to wrestle with issues such as immigration and temporary work visas for workers from south of the border who are capable of executing that labor and often want to return home after working here. If we address that rationally as part of a $1 trillion package, the insurance industry will be a beneficiary—those projects need to be insured, both construction and surety.

Okay. Perfect. Thank you so much.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I will turn the call back over to your host for any additional or closing remarks.

Thanks, everyone, for your time this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Have a great day.

With that, ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference for today. We do thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.