Centerra Gold Inc. Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Centerra Gold Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. The conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Lisa Wilkinson, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications with Centerra Gold. Please go ahead, ma'am.

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Centerra Gold's Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Paul Tomory, President and Chief Executive Officer; David Hendriks, Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Snyder, Chief Financial Officer. Our news published yesterday outlines our third quarter 2025 results and is complemented by our MD&A and financial statements, which are available on SEDAR, EDGAR and our website. All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Presentation slides accompanying this webcast are available on Centerra's website. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks that could cause our actual results to differ from those expressed or implied. For more information, please refer to the cautionary statements in our presentation and the risk factors outlined in our annual information form. We will also be referring to certain non-GAAP measures during today's discussion. For a detailed description of these measures, please see our news release and MD&A issued last night. I will now turn the call over to Paul Tomory.

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, we sustained robust margins and generated nearly $100 million of free cash flow, driven by strong operational performance at Öksüt and elevated metal prices. Gold and copper production in the quarter was almost 82,000 ounces and 13.4 million pounds, respectively. Our cash balance increased to over $560 million in the quarter, demonstrating our ability to fund the Thompson Creek restart project while returning $32 million of capital to shareholders through disciplined share buybacks and our quarterly dividend. We also continue to deploy capital strategically through our equity investment in Liberty Gold, reflecting our balanced approach to growth and value creation. Our self-funded growth strategy continues to advance across multiple fronts. We published the Mount Milligan pre-feasibility study, which I'll come back to, and we also expect to publish a preliminary economic assessment for Kemess in the first quarter of 2026. Together, these assets form a robust pipeline of long-life gold and copper projects in British Columbia. In Nevada, development has advanced at the Goldfield project, which provides Centerra with additional exposure to future gold production. In the quarter, engineering progressed as planned, early mobilization efforts progressed on site, and we are building out a dedicated project execution team. These early actions mark important steps towards project readiness and position Goldfield for disciplined and efficient execution. Each of these growth opportunities, as well as the Thompson Creek restart project in Idaho, can be funded using our existing liquidity and cash flow from operations, positioning Centerra to deliver sustainable low-risk growth while maintaining our strategic approach to capital allocation. In September, we announced the results of the PFS for Mount Milligan, extending the life of mine by approximately 10 years to 2045. This is supported by an optimized mine plan, delivering average annual production of 150,000 ounces of gold and 69 million pounds of copper from 2026 to 2042, followed by the processing of low-grade stockpiles from 2043 to 2045. The study outlines disciplined nonsustaining capital expenditures of approximately $186 million, most of which are not required until the early to mid-2030s, all fully funded from available liquidity and future cash flow. Key investments include $114 million for a second tailings storage facility to be spent across 2032 and 2033 and providing the potential for future raises, which could add multiple decades of storage capacity beyond the 2045 life of mine. $36 million for ball mill motor upgrades and flotation cells in 2028 to increase process plant throughput by about 10% to 66,000 tonnes per day and increase recovery by approximately 1%. And lastly, $28 million for 5 new haul trucks to support longer haul distances, higher material movement rates, and stockpile development. Proven and probable reserves increased significantly to 4.4 million ounces of gold and 1.7 billion pounds of copper, representing a 56% and 52% increase, respectively, from year-end 2024. Recent drilling confirms that mineralization remains open to the west of the current resource pit and Centerra continues to advance exploration aimed at expanding the mineral resource and assessing opportunities to extend the mine life beyond the updated plan. The PFS reaffirms Mount Milligan's strong economics with an after-tax NPV of approximately $1.5 billion at $2,600 per ounce of gold, which increases to over $2 billion at $3,500 per ounce of gold. Mount Milligan remains a strategic cornerstone asset in Centerra's portfolio with 20 years of mine life, meaningful gold and copper production, strong cash flow, and a significant opportunity for future exploration potential in a top-tier mining jurisdiction. Now I'd like to share an update on our sustainability initiatives. As part of our climate change strategy and commitment to sustainability and operational innovation, we're advancing a renewable diesel pilot project at Mount Milligan. This initiative will establish clear reliability metrics, account for seasonal variations, and evaluate performance analytics across our fleet. By exploring renewable diesel, we aim to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions at Mount Milligan and move towards lowering Centerra's overall carbon footprint. At the same time, Mount Milligan's life of mine extension marks a major milestone in advancing Centerra's gold growth strategy and reaffirms our commitment to social responsibility. This includes the launch of the eighth pre-employment training and education readiness program, which supports unemployed and underemployed First Nations members in local communities through skills training, followed by direct employment opportunities. Between 2023 and 2025, we've also achieved double-digit growth in our local spend with First Nations owned and affiliated businesses. That same commitment drives our work at Öksüt, where our community initiatives focus on education, sports, environment, and social development. Through these programs, we are proud to have supported more than 13,000 students, helping to build stronger, more resilient communities where we operate. And with that, I'll pass the call over to Dave to walk through our operational performance highlights.

Thanks, Paul. Slide 8 shows operating highlights at Mount Milligan for the third quarter. Mount Milligan produced over 32,500 ounces of gold and 13.4 million pounds of copper in the quarter. In 2025, mining operations encountered zones with more complex mineralization, the impact of which were incorporated in the recently published PFS. Year-to-date and full year gold and copper production remains in line with the PFS. In the third quarter, all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $1,461 per ounce, 14% higher than last quarter due to an increase in sustaining CapEx and lower ounces sold in the quarter. Full year 2025 costs are expected to be near the low end of the guidance ranges. Slide 9 shows the quarterly operating highlights at Öksüt, reflecting another period of strong performance. Third quarter production was 49,000 ounces, better than planned due to higher grades resulting from mine sequencing. As a result, we have reaffirmed our 2025 production guidance at Öksüt, with production expected near the upper end of the guidance range. In the third quarter, all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis were $1,473 per ounce, which is 16% lower compared to last quarter, driven by higher ounces sold and lower sustaining CapEx, partially offset by higher royalty expenses due to elevated gold prices and new royalty rates in Turkey. Full year 2025 cost guidance is expected to be near the low end of the range, benefiting from expected higher sales and continued strong operational performance. We have initiated a life of mine optimization study at Öksüt to evaluate the asset's full potential, including the incremental production potential of residual leaching of the heap and expanding the pit to pursue additional mineralization. The study will explore options to extend gold recovery from existing leach pads through improved solution management, which will enhance residual metal extraction efficiency. The study is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 and will support updates to the mine's long-term reclamation and site management plans, ensuring the operation continues to maximize metal recovery and cash flow in a safe and responsible manner. The restart of Thompson Creek is advancing with approximately 29% of the total capital investment complete. In the third quarter, we invested $31 million in nonsustaining capital expenditures, bringing total investment spend since the September 2024 restart decision to $113 million. We have reaffirmed our 2025 guidance for nonsustaining CapEx at Thompson Creek. The project remains on track and first production is expected in the second half of 2027.

Thanks, David. Slide 11 details our third quarter financial results. Adjusted net earnings in the third quarter were $66 million or $0.33 per share, which benefited from strong production from Öksüt and elevated metal prices. Key adjustments to net earnings include $194 million related to the noncash impairment reversal at Goldfield, $27 million of unrealized gain net of taxes on the financial assets related to the additional agreement with Royal Gold and $16 million of unrealized gain on the remeasurement of the sale of the Greenstone partnership in 2021, among other things. In the third quarter, sales were over 80,000 ounces of gold and 13 million pounds of copper. The average realized price was $3,178 per ounce of gold and $3.73 per pound of copper, which incorporates the existing streaming arrangements at Mount Milligan. At the molybdenum business unit, approximately 3.1 million pounds of molybdenum was sold in the third quarter at an average realized price of $24.42 per pound. Consolidated all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis in the third quarter were $1,652 per ounce. We expect consolidated all-in sustaining costs on a byproduct basis to be near the low end of the guidance range for both Mount Milligan and Öksüt in 2025. Slide 12 shows our financial highlights for the quarter. In the third quarter, we generated robust cash flow from operations of $162 million and free cash flow of $99 million, driven by strong operational performance at Öksüt and elevated metal prices. In the third quarter, Mount Milligan generated $64 million in cash from operations and $45 million in free cash flow. Öksüt generated $139 million in cash from operations and $134 million in free cash flow. The molybdenum business unit used $16 million of cash in operations and had a free cash flow deficit of $54 million this quarter, mainly related to spending on the Thompson Creek restart and a working capital increase at Langeloth, partially due to high molybdenum prices. Returning capital to shareholders remains a key pillar in our disciplined approach to capital allocation. In the third quarter, we repurchased 2.8 million shares for total consideration of $22 million, and we continue to believe that repurchasing our shares is an accretive high-return use of cash. Our Board has increased the approved level of share repurchases through the NCIB in 2025 to $100 million, and we have repurchased $64 million year-to-date. We also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share. Year-to-date, we have returned over $95 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. As part of our commitment to returning capital to our shareholders, we expect to remain active on the share buybacks subject to market conditions. At the end of the third quarter, our cash balance was $562 million, bringing total liquidity to over $960 million. We also hold an additional $85 million in equity investments. This strong financial position gives us the flexibility to fully fund our organic growth projects at Mount Milligan, Goldfield, Kemess, and Thompson Creek while continuing to return capital to shareholders. I'll pass it back to Paul for some closing remarks.

Thanks, Ryan. We're proud of the continued progress in advancing our internal self-funded growth strategy. The recently published Mount Milligan PFS represents a major step forward in unlocking additional value from this cornerstone asset and provides a clear view of the mine's long-term potential. Alongside this, we continue to advance the Kemess study, which is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026. These efforts reflect our disciplined approach to capital allocation and our commitment to enhancing shareholder value through a robust pipeline of self-funded growth opportunities supported by a strong balance sheet. And with that, operator, I'll open the call to questions, please.

And your first question today will come from Luke Bertozzi with CIBC.

On the solid quarter. It's great to see higher commodity prices flowing right into free cash flow. I noticed gold recovery at Mount Milligan was a bit low compared to prior quarters and the recent technical report. Can you provide a bit of color on what drove the lower recovery in Q3 as well as your expectations for Q4?

Thanks very much for the question. This is Dave. On the recovery piece, we had remodeled the entire deposit. And one of the things that we did when we put the PFS out was looking at the ratio of the pyrite to the chalcopyrite. That ratio has been more pyrite in the last quarter than we had modeled in there, and that has led to the low recoveries. What we have done through the end of the year is we will be able to get through to our ounces for guidance based on moving a little bit more higher material. And so we're able to satisfy ourselves that we understand the piece of the pyrite to chalcopyrite ratio, which is impacting our recovery.

And your next question today will come from Don DeMarco with National Bank.

Congratulations on the strong quarter. I'll start with Öksüt. So I see that during the quarter, you had 1.5 million tonnes stacked at a grade of 1.82 grams per tonne. So considering heap leach residence times and so on, does this suggest that we might see another strong grade quarter in Q1 '26 after the production normalizes in Q4?

Yes. I think what we'll see going forward there, Don, is that through the end of the year, again, we reaffirmed our guidance number. We're pretty confident that we'll get there. And then we should see some good strong production going into next year as well. 100%, that will impact us going into Q1 of 2026. As Don, this is a bit of a segue into the longer-term study we're launching at Öksüt. This mine has reconciled positively since day 1. And we're pretty confident that there's a lot more gold in those heaps than our previous metallurgical models showed. And so what we've kicked off here is looking at how we might be able to exploit those accumulated inventories in that heap. So as we said in our release and in Dave's prepared remarks, we've initiated a study on how to access what we believe are significant accumulated inventories of gold in those heaps. But this asset continues to perform extremely well on reconciliation, and that's what you're seeing in those stacked ounces and in accumulated inventories.

Okay. And for my next question, U.S.-based assets have been trending favorably under the current administration. So I've got 2 parts to this question. Is there a read-through to improving optics for the molybdenum business unit? And given that moly is a critical mineral with applications in defense and aerospace and so on, is there a potential for a strategic deal with the U.S. government?

On your first question, the mining and metal industry has become more favorable over the past year. This is especially true for molybdenum, as we operate a U.S.-based mine supplying a U.S.-based roaster, primarily selling refined molybdenum products to domestic steel mills. We have observed growing confidence in the U.S. steelmaking sector. Molybdenum is utilized in high-performance steels, which are essential for applications in pipelines, nuclear power, defense, aerospace, and shipbuilding, all sectors experiencing an increase in steel demand. Therefore, the U.S. minerals and mining sector, particularly our fully permitted project, has become more appealing. Regarding a potential U.S. government deal, we keep an eye on the situation but we do not require funding as we are fully funded through the construction phase. The project is on schedule, and while we will continue to monitor developments with the government, there is no new information available. Overall, it is indeed a very favorable environment right now.

And your next question today will come from Frederic Bolton with BMO Capital Markets.

Just a couple of questions from me. I just want to follow up on Luke's first question about Mount Milligan. There's mentioned that there was a mention of the grinding circuit being impacted during the quarter. Can you just expand on that and whether that's an issue that's been resolved? And my second question relates to Öksüt. If the life of mine optimization study that concludes towards the end of 2026, if that results in an expansion of the pit, would that require additional permitting from the Turkish government? Or would that require a new study?

Let me start with the Öksüt question. The current reserve life of the mine is expected to end in 2029, which we anticipate will be when the last tonne is extracted from the pit. The optimization study is focused on the accumulated inventories on the heaps, which we believe have been reconciled positively. We will confirm this through Sonic drilling and other methods in the near future. We think there are substantial accumulated inventories that can be addressed within the current footprint, although permit modifications for residual leaching will be required and there is a general understanding of what this may entail. The main aim of the study is to better manage these accumulated inventories and the cyanide solution. Additionally, the study will assess the potential for a sulfide inventory beneath the current oxide boundary at depth, but it's too early to determine what that could entail. If more material is found, it will necessitate permanent modifications, but we are in the early stages and will first evaluate residual leaching and then potential extensions into the sulfides. Regarding Mount Milligan, as mentioned, the goal of the PFS was to extend the mine life and to deepen our understanding of grade recovery and throughput. We need to develop a mining plan that optimally blends the different material characteristics to avoid recovery issues. This year has presented challenges since we've dealt with high pyrite and chalcopyrite levels that have affected our recovery rates. In the PFS, we have established a mine plan that reduces the pyrite content to help achieve our desired recovery rates. This objective also applies to the grade of materials. One of the primary goals of the PFS was to create a mine plan that offers a more optimal feed source and blending process for the mill. We expect to begin addressing this soon, starting in the first quarter of next year. Did I address your question?

Yes, thank you.

And your next question today will come from Brian MacArthur with Raymond James.

Paul, just to clarify regarding Öksüt, I think you've addressed this. If we don't proceed with the sulfides and focus solely on the residual leach, are we still talking about moving material from one leach pad to another? Or can we reuse the existing leach pads to extract more material? Essentially, my main question is whether the capital required for this is minimal and if there's no mining involved, assuming we avoid the sulfide extraction. Is that correct?

Yes, it would be a very low CapEx spend. Both Dave and I have a lot of experience with this type of stuff in Nevada. Dave, why don't you describe what we're going to be looking at here with scope on the residual work?

Yes, there's a couple of different pieces. One of the studies we'll look at is certainly reshaping the heaps will be a big part of this. So that's just dozer time and everything else. So it takes a little bit of capital to get that done. But that gives us a big opportunity to be able to get in there. And then we'll look at our solution flow and decide, is it best to just go with a straight piece? Do we want to try and up the fig grades by going through a couple of different areas and having maybe an additional pond or 2 to do things. And so it's just a piece of what we'll look at is what's the best way to get the gold out in an appropriate timeline while leaving us in a good position for closure. So whether that ends up being a little bit more capital, it will only be more capital from the standpoint that we'll be able to get a lot more ounces out. And that's just something that we will plug away at, and it will continue to evolve over the next few years. We'll have a study published at the end of next year that will give us a good level of confidence. And whatever we put in there, I'm sure we'll beat that as well. There's a lot of opportunity taking ounces out of old heaps. We've done it a bunch of times, and we look forward to initiating that work in Turkey.

It makes great sense and provides a strong return on capital. With this information, is there any chance to improve recoveries in the later stages of the current mine life? The study will be completed in 2026, and will we start seeing benefits in 2028 or 2029? Or do we need to revisit how we approach this?

A lot of it comes down to how much solution we have and how we're able to put it through the heaps. So are we going to just run it through one at a time? Do we try and build the preg right up by going through a couple of different areas? And that's the study we'll look at. So my expectation is that we would be able to increase the grades going to the plant and get more ounces early, but continue to get ounces late. But that could take 18 months, 2 years to get that up and running because it would require probably some additional pumping. Therefore, we need to do some minor modifications to permitting and everything else. So it's an iterative process and I expect that we would be able to do very well with it over the next period of time. And you are 100% correct, very low capital for the return that we would get out of it.

And your next question today will come from Steven Green with TD Securities.

I think you answered my questions on Öksüt. But just to finish that off, do you have any oxide targets in the project area and or potentially regional opportunities just to take advantage of your position in Turkey at the end of the mine?

Yes. One of the pieces of this optimization study is really a 360 around the site and exploration 360 around the site, bringing in some different people to take a look at what we've been doing there for the last 10 years and give us an opportunity to make sure we're not leaving something behind. And then also working with the deposits in the area. So that is part of the work that we will continue to do, and that will be a part of the life of mine optimization study.

Seeing no further questions, this will conclude our question-and-answer session as well as today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.