Cavco Industries, Inc. Q4 FY2022 Earnings Call

Thank you all for joining us. Welcome to the Cavco Industries Earnings Call and Webcast for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022. I will now hand over the call to Mark Fusler, our Director of Financial Reporting and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good day and thank you for joining us for Cavco Industries fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 earnings conference call. During the call, you’ll be hearing from Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer; Allison Aden, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Paul Bigbee, Chief Accounting Officer. Before we begin, we’d like to remind you that the comments made during this conference call by management may contain forward-looking statements under the provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements of expectations or assumptions about Cavco’s financial and operational performance, revenues, earnings per share, cash flow or use, cost savings, operational efficiencies, current or future volatility in the credit markets, or future market conditions. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, which could affect Cavco’s actual results and could cause its actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements made by or on behalf of Cavco. I encourage you to review Cavco’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including without limitation, the Company’s most recent Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which identify specific factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. This conference call also contains time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of the date of this live broadcast, Friday, May 27, 2022. Cavco undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statement, whether written or oral to reflect actual events or circumstances after the date of this conference call, except as required by law. I would like to turn the call over to Bill Boor, President and Chief Executive Officer. Bill?

Welcome and thank you for joining us today to review our results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year. Fiscal '22 was another year of increased revenue and operating earnings, our 12th in a row. Each of the last several years, as we’ve turned the corner, we’ve been facing a different set of challenges, which makes it particularly gratifying to be able to report record results. The year before last, fiscal '21, our revenue and earnings gains were both in the 4% to 5% range. This year, we not only hit new records, revenue grew by 47% and earnings by 119%. The acquisition of Commodore had a significant impact, but even without that addition, we would’ve grown the top line by about 15% and profit by well over 100%. Most importantly, this year we provided 16,697 homes to families across the country. It’s tempting to attribute these results solely to market forces, given the strong demand and significant price increases, but underpinning our financial performance was an improvement in capacity utilization from approximately 75% in the fourth quarter a year ago to over 80% this past quarter, which is above pre-pandemic levels. Despite continuing labor and supply issues, we’re making about 11% or 1,600 more homes than we were before the pandemic. Our plants have been extremely focused on improvements to increase staffing and retention. And the work they’ve been doing to reduce product complexity has been paying off with more homes, which is what our customers have needed the most. On a same plant basis, production was up 14% compared to last year’s fourth quarter. We have not seen a drop-off in customer quotes, which we watch as a leading indicator of demand. Similarly, retail traffic and deposits have remained healthy. Our backlog was flat on a sequential basis and up significantly year-over-year, and orders remained strong in the quarter, again, above healthy pre-pandemic levels. We’ve accomplished a needed reduction in weeks of backlog through the significant increase in productivity. Our backlog ended the quarter at 32 to 34 weeks. Additionally, our well-run financial services operations continue to consistently provide steady growth and strong returns. And our ability to serve our customers is greatly enhanced by our lending and insurance businesses. In the coming months, our new plants in Glendale, Arizona; and Hamlet, North Carolina will begin operations. During fiscal year '22, we initiated the state-of-the-art projects. We acquired Commodore, which added approximately 25% to our capacity. And we made throughput investments across our plant system. While making those strategic investments, we also completed the $100 million stock repurchase authorization earlier this month. All of this is consistent with our stated capital allocation objectives and demonstrates our ability to return value directly to shareholders without limiting our growth strategy. And our Board of Directors provided a new reauthorization this week, giving us continued access to this important tool to responsibly manage our balance sheet. I commented at the beginning of the call that every year, setting new records is a challenge because of uncertainties in the coming year. The specific uncertainties change from year to year. Over the past few years, it was clearly a question of COVID’s impact on economic activity. And that risk has not completely gone away. Certainly, labor and supply challenges persist. This year, we face questions regarding the impact of increasing rates and general economic pressures. And stating the obvious, the rate increases we’ve already seen dramatically increase monthly payments, thereby decreasing affordability. We know that over the past couple of years, the price increases have left many hopeful buyers without the ability to own a new home in the near term. Interest rate increases continue that concerning trend. What can be forgotten is that huge under supply of housing, particularly less expensive housing? Rising rates don’t erase that fundamental undersupply. And additionally, we know that as their options become more expensive, some buyers will move to lower price point home buying alternatives. While we aren’t able to specifically quantify it, the movement of buyers from site build into the manufactured housing is real. And we expect that to continue in this rising rate environment. This has happened historically and the value and quality of manufactured homes competing for these buyers has never been better. The extent to which these positive dynamics offset the impact of higher rates and increased home prices on demand is not yet known, and of course, we’ll be watching closely. I’m very confident, the increasing role manufactured housing will play in solving the deficit of housing over any strategic planning timeframe. Beyond taking share in traditional manufactured housing markets, we have the added opportunity of increasing shipments into urban areas, a dynamic we have barely scratched the surface of. So, we remain optimistic and I have extreme confidence in this organization’s ability to successfully monitor and adjust to any shift in market dynamics as I’ve seen our people do time and again. With that, I’ll turn it over to Allison to discuss the quarterly results in more detail.

Thank you, Bill. We’re pleased to once again report that Cavco achieved record-breaking net revenue and net income results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022. Net revenue for the period was $505.5 million, up 64.9%, compared to $306.5 million during the prior fiscal year’s fourth quarter. The Commodore Homes acquisition contributed $89.2 million of this year-over-year increase. Sequentially, from the third quarter of fiscal 2022, net revenue increased 17.1%, mostly driven by an increase in units shipped, resulting from higher factory utilization. Within the factory-built housing market, net revenue increased 69.5% to $488.3 million from $288 million in the prior year quarter. The increase is driven by both, the addition of Commodore operations and a 31% increase in average revenue per home sold. The increase in average revenue per home sold was largely due to product pricing increases and to a lesser extent a product mix shift to more multi-section homes. We’re pleased to report that factory utilization exceeded 80% during the quarter, slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels. While home production continues to experience hiring challenges and building materials supply disruptions, we’ve been successful in increasing our production headcount and achieving efficiencies and product simplification. Financial services segment net revenue decreased 7.2% to $17.2 million from $18.5 million due to lower interest income earned on the acquired consumer loan portfolio, lower unrealized gain on marketable equity securities and lower home loan sales income. These decreases were partially offset by a higher number of insurance policies in force. Consolidated gross profit in the fourth fiscal quarter as a percentage of net revenue was 25.6%, up from 23.1% in the same period last year. The increase is mainly the result of the factory-built housing segment, increasing to 24.5% in Q4 2022 versus 20.6% in Q4 of 2021. This was driven by pricing and operational improvements, partially offset by increased material costs per module. Material costs increased from third quarter levels, resulting in a lower gross margin sequentially from 25.2% in Q3 of 2022. The acquisition of Commodore negatively impacted the Q4 consolidated gross margin by approximately 200 basis points. The acquired Commodore backlog was priced protected, and therefore now yielding lower gross margins as this backlog converts to close sales. During the process of working our way through the price protected backlog, we expect the legacy Commodore gross margins to continue to negatively impact our consolidated margins for the next couple of quarters, but improve after that. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue in financial services decreased to 58.5% in Q4 2022, from 61.9% in Q4 of 2021 from greater weather-related events and lower realized and unrealized gain on marketable equity securities. Selling, general and administrative expenses in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022 were $59.7 million, or 11.8% of net revenue, compared to $44 million or 14.3% of net revenue during the same quarter last year. The increase is due to both the addition of Commodore and to higher incentive and commission wages on improved earnings. Net other expense this quarter was $1.2 million compared to $3 million of income in the prior year quarter. This decrease is primarily driven by unrealized losses on marketable equity securities, partially offset by higher interest income earned on our commercial loan balances, which increased as a result of the Commodore Homes acquisition. Pre-tax profit was up 131% this quarter to $68.6 million from $29.7 million for the prior year period. The effective interest tax rate was 22.1% for the fourth fiscal quarter, compared to 15.2% in the same period last year. This increased tax rate is due to a lower level of tax benefit from exercised stock options in the current year, compared to the same quarter last year. Net income attributable to Cavco shareholders was up 112.6% to $53.6 million compared to net income of $25.2 million in the same quarter the prior year. Net income attributable to Cavco common stockholders per diluted share this quarter was $5.86 versus $2.71 per share in Q4 of fiscal 2021. Now, I’ll turn it over to Paul to discuss the balance sheet.

Thanks, Allison. So, I’ll be covering changes in the April 2, 2022 balance sheet compared to the April 3, 2021 amounts. The cash balance was $244.2 million, down 24.2% from $322.3 million a year ago. Uses of cash during the year include the acquisition of Commodore and Craftsman Homes, repurchases of common stock, higher inventory balances and purchases of property, plant and equipment. These uses of cash were partially offset by net income reduced by noncash items, changes in working capital, sales of consumer loans greater than loan originations and principal collections on consumer loans. The acquisition of Commodore and Craftsman Homes resulted in increases in primarily all assets and liabilities, including accounts receivable, commercial loans receivable, inventories, property, plant and equipment, goodwill and intangibles, accounts payable and accrued expenses. Accrued expenses and other current liabilities also increased due to higher wage accruals from deferred payroll tax payments under the CARES ACT and higher volume rebate amounts and customer deposits. Consumer loans receivable decreased from principal collections on loans held for investment that were previously securitized. Prepaid and other assets increased from the income tax receivable related to the 45L energy efficient tax credits recognized in the third quarter of fiscal '22. Redeemable non-controlled interest is a new line item that represents the value of the non-controlling shareholders interest in Craftsman Homes. Lastly, stockholders’ equity was approximately $830.5 million as of April 2, 2022, up $146.9 million from $683.6 million as of April 3, 2021. With that, I’ll turn it back to Mark. I think we’re ready for Q&A.

Our first question comes from Daniel Moore from CJS Securities.

Thank you, and thank you Bill and Allison for the insights. Can you discuss the current capacity, which is now at 80% utilization? Do you see the potential to further increase unit production as we approach the first half of fiscal '23?

Yes. We don’t have any specific targets, but we’ve got some real momentum with us on productivity. And I think as I said, a lot of that comes from doing a better and better job around labor. We’ve seen the fruits of a lot of work there and then the continued product simplification. And if you think about it, we’ve had long backlogs. So even when you decide and you kind of simplify your product mix at a plant, you’ve got to work through a lot of orders that you’re committed to delivering to get to that simpler product mix. So, I really do think there’s upside from there. I don’t have the ability right now to try to quantify it for you there, Dan.

What is the current situation regarding the supply chain? Are there any new bottlenecks anticipated or is the situation stabilizing?

I don’t think it’s getting easier. It is feeling more normal. I’ve laughed with some folks that it’s as difficult now as I think it has been throughout this experience, and yet it feels kind of normal at this point. Our plants have done a great job. But every time a different material becomes a challenge, it’s a new thing to solve. And as I think folks know, generally the supply problem has been very persistent; it’s transitioned to being more driven by logistics and trucking more recently. I’ve not talked to anyone that has been able to give me any insight into when it’ll lighten up, but we’re expecting it to be persistent going forward for a while.

Lastly, can you discuss the trajectory of margins moving forward? Are you anticipating another 200 basis points of impact from Commodore over the next two quarters before it eases off? Or should we consider a gradual improvement between now and the end of fiscal Q2?

Thanks. I appreciate the question, and just consistent with what we shared on our last conference call. With Commodore, we would expect for the next couple of quarters for the 200 basis-point drive to continue. And then, it will begin to ease off after that as the price protected backlog begins to convert to sales.

I apologize, Bill, but you mentioned that the order rate is strong and aligned with your production. Are you experiencing any cancellations from your retail partners or retail customers, anything significant in that regard?

Yes. I hope what I’m saying is clear, but please feel free to ask for clarification if needed. To provide some context, over the last several months, especially at the end of last year and the start of this year, we noticed that pricing increased significantly, almost accelerating compared to previous trends. Following that, we saw interest rates rise. This has created a sort of swirling effect in the market. Some existing orders have seen people no longer qualified for the homes they wanted. However, the overall dynamic is that when a deal fails for a retailer on a sold unit, there’s often another buyer ready to step in. So, while there’s been a lot of movement, it doesn’t reflect a decline in underlying demand. We are still experiencing high traffic and receiving deposits from both our retail and independent channels. We haven’t observed a significant drop in demand, but there is some chaos due to the rapidly rising monthly payments that people are facing. It remains to be seen what impact rising rates and prices will have on underlying demand. For now, I don’t see clear signs of a decline, but there’s certainly been a lot of disruption in the market. What works in our favor is the ongoing transition from site-built homes to manufacturing, and I always return to the fundamental lack of housing supply in the country. The demand is real. I’m not trying to present an overly optimistic or pessimistic view, but we are monitoring demand at a time when the market is reacting to changes in pricing and interest rates.

Now, rather than confusing, that’s actually extremely helpful. I appreciate the color. I’ll jump back with any follow ups.

Our next question comes from Greg Palm with Craig-Hallum.

Just maybe following up on that sort of question on demand. I’m just curious if you can talk about whether it’s pretty consistent across the board from all channels, i.e. both retail and community, and whether you’re seeing any differences in terms of pockets of geographies where maybe quarter-to-date demand, whether that’s measured by traffic orders, quotes, whether it’s significantly different across various geographies.

Yes, the distinction between community and retail is significant. I've spent a lot of time with customers recently, and there is considerable interest from community operators, especially larger REIT-type firms, regarding their growth plans and demand. They continue to ask us if we can produce as many houses as possible. I believe communities will be a key strength for some time. The demand appears very real and robust at this moment. This doesn't imply that I'm forecasting a major decline in retail; however, communities, which some may recall were the drivers of growth in this industry years ago, seem ready to surge again in my view. Right now, it feels like that area is comparatively stronger. We're working to evaluate the situation like everyone else. Could you please remind me of the other part of your question?

Yes. Just in terms of geographies, whether you see any differences out there?

Yes. Thank you. I generally would say no. We’re talking to our folks across the country. And I think the dynamics are pretty similar. If there is any area that I think we’re queued in a little more, it’s probably the Southeast. But I wouldn’t describe that in a way that we’re seeing markedly different dynamics; it just seems like there’s a little more of that swirl going on in the Southeast, potentially.

What about the mix of your backlog? I’m curious if that’s changed at all, in recent quarters, whether that’s shifted into more single lives versus multis or maybe just homes with less options? Curious what you’re seeing as difference in the order book in the last few months or year-to-date?

Yes, I don’t think so. We’ve been observing a gradual shift in product mix towards multi-section homes for some time now. This shift makes sense considering the current dynamics we've discussed. As affordability tightens, buyers in lower price ranges who were barely able to afford homes are now finding it difficult. Additionally, we see individuals transitioning from considering site-built homes to opting for higher-priced manufactured housing. This explains the ongoing trend towards multi-section homes. However, in recent quarters, we haven’t noticed any significant changes in the backlog. Regarding options, that’s also a challenging question because our product simplification strategy involves reducing options. If we were to break down the backlog, we would likely find that the offerings are influencing it more than actual consumer interest in purchasing.

That maybe leads me to my next question, which is on product simplification? Can you just talk about what or how much of that’s already been done? How much is left to go? I’m just trying to get a sense of whether this is a longer-term journey that maybe suggests that these production efficiencies, as you talk about, can continue to increase for a while.

We’re getting a lot of it. My comment earlier was that with the backlogs that we have, if you decide today on new offerings, you’re not going to have as many floor plans or as many options; you’re still going to have to make what’s in your backlog for a while. So, you kind of take a while to get to it. But I think we’re well into that. I don’t know how to separate how far we are into the benefit from how far is yet to come. But it’s a major factor and I think our plants have been pretty aggressive about it, but they’ve done it in a way that we believe that working with our dealer customers, for example, we’re still providing products that are really matched to the market. So, I think there’s more to go, as I answered the earlier question. And no, it’s not only us increasing our utilization; it’s not only going to come from simplification; it’s going to come from continuing to get our staffing up and our retention up and building the skills of the team, kind of in the middle of all that. So, more to come.

Our next question comes from Ian Lapey with Gabelli Funds.

Hi. Bill, congrats to you and the team on the 12th year of revenue and earnings growth. That’s tremendous.

Thanks, Ian.

A couple of questions. What is the outlook for industry capacity increases? If I look at the MHI data, it looks like there were 141 plants in March. And I know you’ve got two more coming online. What are you hearing about from competitors in that regard?

I think there’s some of that going on. You hear about a few plants here and there. It’s not huge. And I think the limiting factors really have been, I feel like an absolute broken record, which I apologize for, but right now, bringing capacity on, you really have to be thoughtful about your ability to staff and supply the new production. So, I think that’s been a bit of a governor. Historically, the issue was, can you get market space, can you get distributors? That hasn’t been the problem or the concern. The last couple of years, it’s been more about inputs. So, I think that’s created a governor, but obviously, we’re adding a couple and I know of others that are adding here and there as well. I don’t think it’s coming in a big wave though.

Okay. And then, last question, in terms of the credit, are you seeing any pickup in consumer delinquencies? And then, what are chattel mortgage rates roughly now, how much have they increased compared to say site-built mortgage rates?

Right. Yes. First part, I don’t think we’ve seen really any pickup in delinquencies. Buyers throughout, while some of them have gotten priced out by the time they get to the time they would have gotten their homes, the people that are qualified for getting those homes. The performance has been pretty good because I think the lending industry has been pretty disciplined about credit. So, I haven’t seen any issue there. Your question about rates. Were you asking specifically about home only or land home?

Home only?

Yes, it's been interesting lately. We’ve noted that at the start, which I often relate back to the pandemic when things got a bit chaotic, home-only rates that were around 7.5% dropped to as low as 5% to 5.5%. They remained quite stable at that level until the last month or so, but now they have started to increase. Currently, the data shows a range from the low-6s to the mid- to upper-7s, indicating a significant recent rise.

And I’m not showing any further questions at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over to Bill Boor, President and CEO for any closing remarks.

Okay. Yes, I do want to take just a quick moment to recognize our Martinsville, Virginia plant. A little over a year ago, our plant leadership participated in a workshop with local state, federal, and nonprofit groups to address the affordability issue there in that area. And this led to a multi-entity partnership to redevelop an area within the city. This past month, there was a ribbon-cutting ceremony, and people are currently moving into their new homes. And this is why I wanted to bring it up here. This development is targeted for income levels in the $17 to $20 per hour range. And these are homes these folks will own, not rent. Cavco is recognized with our industry association’s Community Impact Award this year due to the Martinsville plant’s outstanding work on the project. And I bring it up partly because I think they deserve some recognition, but it’s also everything we’re talking about regarding affordability and the impact of pricing and rate shifts. This is a shining example that with the right ingredients and leadership, we can truly impact affordability and help deserving families achieve home ownership. So, it’s important work. I think, the business results have been outstanding, but we’re still really connected to this cause of trying to have an impact, like the Martinsville plant has had recently. All areas of our company contributed to a truly outstanding year. I really want to thank everyone throughout Cavco. And with that, we appreciate your time today. We look forward to keeping you updated. Thanks a lot everyone.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.