Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to CVG's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Andy Cheung, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to our conference call. Joining me on the call today is James Ray, President and CEO of CVG. This morning, we will provide a brief company update as well as commentary regarding our first quarter 2025 results, after which we will open the call for questions. As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast and a Q1 2025 earnings call presentation, which we will refer to during this call, is available on our website. Both may contain forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, expectations for future periods regarding market trends, cost-saving initiatives, and new product initiatives, among others. Actual results may differ from anticipated results because of certain risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties may include, but are not limited to, economic conditions in the markets in which CVG operates, fluctuations in the production volumes of vehicles for which CVG is a supplier, financial covenant compliance and liquidity, risks associated with conducting business in foreign countries and currencies and other risks as detailed in our SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to James to provide a company update.

Thank you, Andy. I'd like to turn your attention to the supplemental earnings presentation, starting on Slide 3. Our first quarter results reflect the strategic steps we have taken to refine our business model over the last several quarters. More recently, we completed the shift to our new segment structure, which has provided enhanced clarity and focus within each business unit, while more closely aligning CVG with our customers and end markets. Enhancing that connection with our customers is critical, especially in the current market conditions. Our three operating segments, Global Seating, Global Electrical Systems, and Trim Systems and Components are now better positioned to serve our customers in a lower cost structure. We have seen early benefits from this resegmentation, and we continue to believe this structure will accelerate the operational momentum we have created year-to-date. Also highlighted on this slide is the 10.8% adjusted gross margin we achieved during the quarter, which is a 240 basis point sequential improvement compared to Q4 2024. This improved profitability was largely driven by the operational efficiency initiatives we executed and have spoken about previously, including the divestiture of non-core businesses as well as the conclusion of one-time costs from last year, including outside consulting expenses. We expect our gross margin to be supported by further operating leverage going forward as we continue to benefit from the strategic actions taken in 2024. Along with improved profitability, we also delivered an almost $18 million improvement in free cash flow compared to last year. As we alluded to last quarter, working capital management is a critical focus for us this year, and we expect to reduce our working capital closer to historical levels over the course of this year with a specific focus on inventory. I will provide more detail regarding our gross margin and free cash flow performance in a moment, but our strong performance on both helped to drive a net debt reduction of $11.7 million and a gross debt reduction of $18.1 million in the first quarter. Before I move on, I'd like to comment on our decision to discontinue reporting new business wins. Given the current macroeconomic environment as well as our customers' challenges in predicting future program ramps, we don't believe we have the necessary clarity to accurately predict the timing and magnitude of total wins, particularly as to when they will begin flowing through to our revenue. For these reasons, we believe our annual guidance is the best way to contextualize and model our future results. Importantly, while we will not be providing forward-looking projections for new business, this does not mean we are any less focused on pursuing and securing new business awards. This remains the lifeblood of this company, and we are still seeing a robust pipeline of new business opportunities. Turning to Slide 4. I want to take you through the sequential gross margin improvement we saw in the first quarter. Reflecting back to the strategic actions taken in 2024, we've been focused on reducing freight, labor, and overhead costs. In particular, we reduced our reliance on expedited freight, optimized our terms with suppliers and improved our lead times and order quantities. We are also flexing our direct labor to align with any customer volume changes and continue shifting our production to lower-cost facilities. We're also addressing plant salaries, and our new segment alignment allows for a more optimized overhead structure. As evidenced by the margin improvement, our focus on operational efficiency improvements as well as our restructuring and footprint rationalization efforts are clearly paying off. This focus on improving our operating model is clearly helping our performance in this lower demand environment, but also positions us well into the eventual end market recovery. We believe we have the right approach for CVG to drive accretive growth, accelerate margin expansion, increase our capital efficiency, and ultimately enhance shareholder value. Now moving to Slide 5. I'd like to revisit a graphic we shared in our Q4 earnings call. While we believe our strategic portfolio actions position us better for the future, they led to cash flow headwinds in 2024, namely through cash burn in our discontinued operations, restructuring spend, and inventory build. We mentioned on the Q4 call that we expected each of these three headwinds to ease and in some cases, reverse in 2025. Considering the decline in market demand, I'm pleased to report solid progress in each area. In the first quarter, our discontinued operations were net cash generative. We also had minimal restructuring spend in the quarter at less than $1 million. And finally, we saw a $5 million improvement in inventory versus the end of the year. Improvement in these three areas helped drive free cash generation of $11 million in the quarter and positions us well for further improvement in this key metric throughout 2025. With that, I'd like to turn the call back to Andy for a more detailed review of our financial results.

Thank you, James, and good morning, everyone. If you are following along in the presentation, please turn to Slide 6. Consolidated first quarter 2025 revenue was $169.8 million as compared to $194.6 million in the prior year period. The decrease in revenues is due primarily to a softening in global construction and agriculture end markets as well as North American Class 8 truck demand. Adjusted EBITDA was $5.8 million for the first quarter compared to $9.7 million in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 3.4%, down 160 basis points as compared to adjusted EBITDA margins of 5% in the first quarter of 2024, driven primarily by lower volumes, but offset by reductions in SG&A expenses. Interest expense was $2.5 million as compared to $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2024. The increase in interest expense was primarily related to a higher effective interest rate during the current period. Net loss for the quarter was $3.1 million or a loss of $0.09 per diluted share as compared to a net income of $1.4 million or $0.05 per diluted share in the prior year. Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $2.6 million or a loss of $0.08 per diluted share as compared to adjusted net income of $2.8 million or $0.08 per diluted share in the prior year. Net loss and adjusted net loss were impacted by higher noncash tax provisions driven by the geographic mix of income in the quarter. Free cash flow from continuing operations for the quarter was $11.2 million compared to negative $6.5 million in the prior year. The free cash generated in the quarter was supported by better working capital management and reduced capital expenditures. At the end of the first quarter, our net leverage ratio calculated as our net debt divided by our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was 5x. As a reminder, our amended credit agreement calculates the net leverage ratio slightly differently, excluding certain items related to our strategic actions in 2024 that negatively impacted adjusted EBITDA. Based on that calculation, we remain below the net leverage covenants set forth in the credit agreement. Moving to the segment results beginning on Slide 7. Our Global Seating segment achieved revenues of $73.4 million, a decrease of 9% as compared to the year-ago quarter, with the decrease primarily driven by lower sales volume as a result of reduced customer demand. Adjusted operating income was $2.7 million, a decrease of $0.1 million compared to the first quarter of 2024. While operating income was negatively impacted by lower sales volume and increased freight costs, we saw an improvement in adjusted operating income margin, thanks to the actions we took in 2024 to address our cost and manufacturing footprint. Turning to Slide 8. Our Global Electrical segment's first quarter revenues decreased 14% to $50.5 million compared to the year-ago quarter due primarily to lower sales volume as a result of decreased customer demand. Adjusted operating income for the first quarter was $0.2 million, a decrease of $1.3 million compared to the prior year, primarily attributable to the lower sales volumes and unfavorable foreign exchange impacts. We took further restructuring actions focused on reducing SG&A and indirect headcount as we look to rightsize staffing levels in this business to align with the current demand outlook while shifting production to lower-cost facilities. We remain focused on global electrical as a core business to CVG, and it remains a focal point for our team as we continue to reduce debt, improve free cash flow, and win new business at higher margins. Moving to Slide 9. Our Trim Systems and Components revenues in the first quarter decreased 17% to $45.9 million compared to the year-ago quarter due to lower sales volume as a result of decreased customer demand. Adjusted operating income for the first quarter was $1.6 million, a decrease of $3.1 million compared to the prior year. The decrease is primarily attributable to lower sales volumes and higher freight costs. We believe we are working through the last of our operational inefficiencies in this segment and that we are positioned for improved performance moving forward. Along those lines, we did see strong sequential gross margin improvements in this segment, up 290 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 as our remediation efforts are stabilizing operations and should lead to improved operational efficiency and financial performance. That concludes my financial overview commentary. I will now turn the call back over to James to cover our market outlook, key strategic actions being taken, and our updated guidance.

Thank you, Andy. I will start with our key end markets outlook on Slide 10. According to ACT's Class 8 heavy truck build forecast, 2025 estimates imply a 23% decline in year-over-year volumes. ACT forecasts a 19% increase in truck builds anticipated in 2026. Despite the weakness projected in 2025, we expect to see a strong rebound in builds in 2026 as the industry prepares for an update in emissions regulations in 2027. We understand the EPA is evaluating a potential delay or pushback of the greenhouse gas Phase III regulations for commercial vehicles which would likely change the pre-buy dynamics ahead of the expected regulation change date in 2027. However, we believe this would ultimately represent a timing shift as fleet operators still need to replace equipment on a regular basis. Moving to our construction and agriculture market outlook. Based on recent commentary and outlooks from our customers and key market players, we now expect the construction market to be down approximately 5% to 15% and the agriculture market to be down in the same range as higher interest rates, weaker housing starts, slower commercial real estate activity, and lower commodity prices continue to weigh heavily on demand. Despite market softness in these markets, which impact our Global Electrical Systems business, we continue to remain optimistic about the long-term potential of both construction and agriculture markets as we see ongoing replacement needs and underlying secular trends driving a recovery in these markets in 2026. Turning to Slide 10. I'd like to highlight some of the actions we have and are currently taking to mitigate the impact of tariffs and broader macroeconomic headwinds. First, the strategic portfolio actions we took in 2024 to lower our cost structure are already helping to lower decremental margins and position us well to grow our earnings power as end market demand recovers. Second, we remain focused on driving improved cash generation and aligning our SG&A structure with our current revenue base this year. Specifically, we expect a 50% reduction in planned capital expenditures this year, along with $20 million of working capital reduction focused primarily on inventory. Through the first quarter, we realized $5 million in inventory reduction. We also expect $15 million to $20 million in cost savings this year, which should drive incremental margin expansion as our top line returns to future growth. Third, we are in constant communication with our customers, which has improved our line of sight to production schedule changes and will allow us to implement corresponding cost actions in the event of future changes. Furthermore, as soon as the initial round of tariffs was announced, our teams immediately took a number of actions in an effort to mitigate potential impacts. We are actively negotiating price recovery terms with our customers while building contingency plans to create flexibility across multiple scenarios, all with the end goal of securing our business competitiveness and meeting our customers' needs. In addition, we are diligently assessing our relationship with suppliers, including evaluation of reshoring and near-shoring opportunities to mitigate the potential impact of tariffs. Turning to Slide 12. I'll share several thoughts on our updated outlook for 2025, which reflects the current estimated impact of tariffs, trade policies, and economic uncertainty as well as the aforementioned actions that we are proactively taking in this current uncertain environment. Reflecting recent macroeconomic developments, prevailing truck build forecasts and ongoing weakness in construction and agriculture markets, we are lowering our quantitative annual guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA and tightening the revenue range. We're also introducing a free cash flow metric to our guidance this quarter. Given current demand pressures, we are adjusting our full year 2025 revenue guidance range to $660 million to $690 million, which is down from $670 million to $710 million. We are also lowering our adjusted EBITDA guidance expectations to the range of $22 million to $27 million for 2025, which is down from $25 million to $30 million. Based on this updated outlook, we still expect EBITDA growth and margin expansion compared to 2024 at the midpoint of the ranges, supported by our focus on SG&A costs. The lower end of our guidance ranges encompasses a scenario where the EPA pushes back the 2027 emission standards for Class 8 vehicles. We expect to build on our free cash flow progress, generating at least $20 million of free cash flow in 2025, which will be used to pay down debt. Our focus on reducing working capital and lowering capital expenditures underpin this outlook. Net leverage is expected to decline throughout 2025 and 2026 as we work toward returning to our targeted 2x level. With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator and open up the line for questions.

Your first question comes from the line of Joe Gomes from NOBLE Capital.

So nice work again on the cost improvements and everything. And just on the gross margin improvement. I wonder if you could just remind us in a normalized environment, how high you think gross margin could be?

Yes, Joe, we discussed that overall, we anticipate the entire business reaching a high single-digit EBITDA margin, which would require us to achieve around a 15% gross margin. Currently, we still have a significant journey ahead. However, as you mentioned, with a 15% margin, we would likely be moving back to a more normalized level of market demand along with some measures we're implementing ourselves.

Yes, Joe, I'd also add us being able to anticipate, plan, and manage the headwinds of tariffs, inflation, global freight costs and those things. We feel like we have line of sight to mitigating actions, and our ability to flex quickly depending on what the end outcome is in those areas will give us an ability to continue to drive expansion in gross margin.

Okay. Regarding the end markets, could you provide us with some additional insights? I noticed that you refer to the ACT truck build outlook. Also, data from FTR shows that Class 8 orders in April have fallen to May 2020 levels, during the height of COVID when everything was shut down. Year-to-date, orders have decreased by 30%, which leads me to believe that reaching the ACT build numbers for 2026 will be very challenging. This is in addition to the possibility of the EPA altering the 2027 deadlines for new emissions, which would introduce another variable. Furthermore, if the figures for the construction and agriculture markets hold true, they are projected to decline by 5% to 15% this year, building on two years of market contraction.

Yes, that’s a really good question, and thanks for asking because I think what you’re seeing is part of the result of the actions we took last year, but also improving our capability and flexibility as an organization. So when we look at our cost structure, we look at the low end of guidance and comprehend some of the elements that you had mentioned, we feel that we have adequate plans in place not only to take cost structure actions as well as discretionary spending in the SG&A line to maintain EBITDA and cash at the lower end. We also have the capability to – whenever the markets return, we will have the appropriate capacity to respond, but we’re surgically removing costs, fixed and variable as we expect these headwinds to continue. So I haven’t experienced in my overall professional experience, this type of year-over-year, two years in a row stack downturn. But we took some tough measures last year, which created some inefficiencies. And now that they’re stabilizing, we still see line of sight to continued opportunity for gross margin expansion even in the headwind of these market dynamics. And you’re seeing that flow through in our Q1, and we expect throughout the year to continue to harvest those opportunities to maintain our updated guidance range with consideration of the EPA pushout, with consideration of continued end market demand in ConAg. And some of the success will determine – will be determined by our ability to mitigate the end result of tariff actions, working with our customers and suppliers as well as our commodity prices and our footprint on near-shoring, on-shoring resourcing to continue to improve our capital utilization as well as be prepared to support customer demand. And then finally, just the – what I would call customer intimacy and understanding what some of their leading indicators are as they continue to flex their build schedules and modulate their output. The order book, I think the end markets based on what we hear from our customers, is people are pausing, organizations are pausing, whether it’s fleets or ConAg dealers to see where the macroeconomic situation will end up with respect to interest rates and the other elements that we have discussed in the call. And us having that view helps us to continue to align our flexing to be able to hold our margins.

Your next question comes from the line of Gary Prestopino of Barrington Research.

A couple of questions here. First of all, as I look back on the stats that you gave for Class 8 truck build when you reported in March. ACT was at, I believe, 316,000 of production. Now it's down to 255,000, and that's just really in a two-month span. So is that a reaction to the possibility of the EPA considering delaying some of these emissions issues? Or is that just really a function of that they felt that the economy is really slowing dramatically, and this is where they think production is going to be? I mean it just seems like in a two-month period, that's a huge gap down.

Yes, it is. And based on information we received from our customers and also that they've presented publicly, their end market demand is somewhat in a wait-and-see mode with respect to tariffs. Freight rates have gone down. And I think some of that's with respect to tariffs as well as geopolitical issues with the supply chain. We expect to continue to align there. But there is volatility in customer build due to their pipeline inventory correction. So they've scheduled down weeks within quarter and out quarters that we've adjusted in our outlook and forecast as they modulate their production, so their inventory pipeline aligns and they're not overproducing. So we have to adjust accordingly. And that's how we are able to continue to address our inventory reduction as we're changing our terms and conditions on lead times and MOQs with suppliers as well as looking at alternative sources to have shorter lead times, which is giving us an ability to reduce inventory. Our labor planning and plant scheduling have been quite disruptive, but we are focusing on both variable and fixed aspects. This approach will help us implement the right countermeasures to navigate the uncertainty and volatility we are facing. As we've experienced these dynamics in the past, we know stability and recovery will come. We believe we are well positioned for that moment, but we are not waiting for market recovery to improve our gross margin, EBITDA, and cash flow. We are proactively taking actions while being careful not to compromise our readiness to respond. We're managing a complex set of initiatives effectively, and we are already seeing positive outcomes compared to Q4 and Q1. Looking ahead to Q2, we anticipate some volatility in build rates and order rates, and you will hear more about that in our guidance.

Okay. And then just in regard to tariffs, and then I have another follow-up question on the debt. With tariffs, what percentage of your COGS are going to be impacted by tariffs? And could you just explain where these inputs are coming from in terms of if you're importing stuff from China, Europe, whatever? Can you just help us out a little bit with that?

Our main concern is with the tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. Currently, a significant portion of our business affected by these tariffs operates under USMCA, which has provided us some relief. We are collaborating with our customers to ensure we are on the same page and have established recovery mechanisms in place. We are beginning to see some recovery from tariffs through customer invoices and purchase orders based on the costs we have incurred so far. The tariffs from China affect a smaller percentage of our expenses, mainly related to our global seating division. We are working closely with original equipment manufacturers to ensure we have appropriate recovery strategies there as well. They also expect us to take mitigating actions, such as nearshoring and onshoring, and to renegotiate with suppliers to comply with the same expectations our customers have of us.

And Andy, do you have any number of what percentage of your COGS is affected by this?

Yes. So if you think about from a cost structure standpoint, you really have to break that into the different segments, right, because they are very different. To James' point, our electrical business is mostly a manufacturing base. So what he's describing is our finished good products coming back to the U.S., right? But we believe that we will have some relief from the USMCA and our customer understands the dynamics. So you can call it everything, 100% of the products are subject to tariff exposure, but we believe that with the regulation and the customers' relief, we have that cover there. Then you look at our Trim and component business, that business has very little import components from overseas. That is mostly chemical plastic business with a little bit of components, very tiny coming from overseas. The North America operations is the one that if you remember, we talked about we have some global platform, some metal components that come from China, but I would call it, it would still be a tiny fraction of our cost structure. I'll call it, maybe less than 10% of our cost structure is coming from China. So that's the one that we are actively working with the customer, getting a solution on the recovery. So far, a couple of our top customers have already indicated that they will be very helpful in collaborating. We're finding ways to reduce the cost while customers as well as the customer will be expected to support in terms of relief for us.

Okay. And then just the last question revolves around debt and covenants. I mean your net leverage ratio is at 5x. What are your covenant levels?

Yes. So if you remember, we talked about back in December, we have done an amendment to allow us to – most of the amendment will allow us to calculate our covenant level, considering some of these one-time unusual costs that we incur during 2024 because of all the strategic actions and one-time footprint actions. So overall, it's around 4x and will gradually step down during throughout the year. So as I mentioned in my previous remarks, right now, we are within our covenant compliance. And but at the same time, as I previously talked about, given the majority of our basic debt is going to be maturing in 2027. In 2025, we already started looking for options for refinancing for our entire debt structure. So that’s what we are doing right now.

Next question comes from John Franzreb from Sidoti & Company.

I'd like to go back to the topic of the revenue profile for the current year. I'm curious how April played out relative to March. Are you seeing the revenue profile decrease in line with the ACT numbers? Or is it more or less aggressive than that forecast?

It depends. In some areas, it's in line. In some areas, it's not quite as low. So the ACT forecast primarily impacts our Global Seating and our Trim systems and components business. And depending on the customer and depending on the platform, you see a mixture of what models they're continuing to build and what models they put down weeks in, in their production, and we correspondingly do that with our plants. But we feel like that we're aligned with them with our increased interaction with their organizations on a planning and supply standpoint as well as production supply. And they've been very helpful in communicating to their supply base when they expect to have down weeks in the 12-week to 13-week outlook. So that does give us time to flex a bit.

Okay. And James, you just referenced now and you referenced in your prepared remarks about scheduled downtime. That scheduled downtime, it sounds like it's in the current quarter and then not giving you visibility beyond that. Is that a fair assessment?

It's usually in the 10 to 12-13-week range. They have production schedules that they manage. So we have about a 2 to 3-month visibility. It becomes more firm in the 4 to 8-week range, and it becomes pretty firm in the 4-week range. So knowing what they're planning in the June and July time frame helps us prepare accordingly. And seasonally, with Class 8 truck production, a lot of the customers have model change and they already have downtime scheduled in the July period. So we've seen some adjustments made there where, in some cases, it's extended but they had originally planned to be down. So we're evaluating how we correspond our production and schedules as well as inventory build, safety stocks, and those things to make sure we continue on our inventory reduction path, but also make sure that we continue our focus on on-time delivery with those customers. So it's managing a lot of fluctuation right now, but I feel like we have a somewhat of a better handle on it than we did in Q4 last year.

Yes. So I would say, in general, again, it's different segments, you'll see different profiles. But in general, look at around 20% is what we're currently seeing. Overall, you would expect once we started to see the rebound of our electrical system business, so you see a higher incremental because right now, we are also burdened by the additional fixed costs that we talked about with the two new plants. If you look at the Trim business, you will see a little bit more incremental there. But the Trim business, I would just like to also add a little bit with the new segments. And since you asked about the impact and what we see with the Class 8, with the new segment that you see and you actually see now the Trim segment, as we previously described, that is a North America-based Class 8, mostly end market-related business.

So when you think about modeling about our revenue movements with the end market, that one has the most correlation with North America Class 8. Global Seating now with the new segment, you can see it's truly a global North America, Europe, and APAC. So you can see even in Q1, the correlation with the end market, North America drop is a little bit less correlated now with North America, you can see the drop is less than the Trim business. And obviously, now you look at the electrical business, it's mostly follow steel construction and agriculture.

Understood, Andy. And what cost-saving measures remain to be implemented in 2025?

Our ongoing focus on reducing operational and material costs remains our key strategy. We are committed to enhancing operational excellence, labor productivity, plant efficiency, and optimizing our supply chain, including lead times and minimum order quantities, as well as refining payment terms with our suppliers. With our new COO, Scott Reed, we are seeing positive outcomes from his expertise in both manufacturing operations and procurement. This has led to better alignment and a reduction in previous inefficiencies. We are now viewing our plants through the lens of product segments rather than previous categories. For instance, all seating plants in North America are now managed under a single operational executive, allowing us to leverage synergies from a product and supply chain perspective, which also contributes to cost improvements. Our main areas of focus include inventory reduction to increase cash flow, impacting both our profit and loss statements and cash flow.

Got it. And James, if I recall properly, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned freight costs a number of times. Can you quantify how much freight costs impacted you in the first quarter, say, versus a year ago?

There was a greater impact compared to last year, but we were involved in different initiatives like divestitures and plant consolidations at that time, whereas now the environment is more stable. Additionally, last year we faced various freight challenges such as potential port strikes, canal disruptions, and increased container rates, while this year we are experiencing lower freight demand. This has led to a decrease in container rates and usage. Considering all these factors, I don't have a specific year-over-year number to provide.

So John, I think the most important message here is if you look at our Q4 and Q3 performance last year, right? So when we say that we are under a lot of operational inefficiencies because of the footprint changes and the strategic actions, a lot of that came in the form of expedited freight, right? Because when we move things around, it becomes very difficult to manage the supply chain, and we have to keep the customer production schedule on time. So what James’ prepared remarks suggested is that if you look at our 240 basis point improvement, one-third of that came from our stabilization of those footprint changes, and now we were able to get rid of those expedited freight. And we are not fully done yet. We still have some actions to do as we continue to optimize our inventory positions. So this is going to be – continue to be a source of our margin expansion throughout the year.

There are no further questions at this time. Turning over back to Mr. Ray for closing remarks.

Thank you all for joining today’s call. We are remaining agile to support our customers in this dynamic environment, and we are highly focused on continuing to execute our long-term strategy. We look forward to discussing CVG’s progress next quarter. Thanks again for participating and your questions. Have a good day.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.