Dycom Industries Inc Q4 FY2023 Earnings Call

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Dycom Industries Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your host today, Mr. Steven Nielsen, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for attending this conference call to review our fourth quarter fiscal 2023 results. Going to Slide 2. During this call, we will be referring to a slide presentation, which can be found on our website's Investor Center main page. Relevant slides will be identified by number throughout our presentation. Today, we have on the call Drew DeFerrari, our Chief Financial Officer; and Ryan Urness, our General Counsel. Now I will turn the call over to Ryan Urness.

Thank you, Steve. All forward-looking statements made during this conference call are provided pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include all comments reflecting our expectations, assumptions or beliefs about future events or performance that do not relate to historical periods. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from current projections, including those risks described in our annual report on Form 10-K filed March 4, 2022, together with our other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements are made solely as of the original broadcast date of this conference call, and we assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Steve?

Thanks, Ryan. Now moving to Slide 4 and a review of our fourth quarter results. As we review our results, please note that in our comments today and in the accompanying slides, we reference certain non-GAAP measures. We refer you to the quarterly report section of our website for a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to their corresponding GAAP measures. Now for the quarter. Revenue was $917.5 million, an organic increase of 20.5%. As we deploy gigabit wireline networks, wireless/wireline converged networks, and wireless networks, this quarter reflected an increase in demand from four of our top five customers. Gross margin was 16.5% of revenue and increased 278 basis points compared to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. General and administrative expenses were 7.8% of revenue, and all these factors produced adjusted EBITDA of $83.1 million or 9.1% of revenue and earnings per share of $0.83 compared to $0.03 in the year-ago quarter. Liquidity was strong at $757.8 million, improving sequentially, and operating cash flow was $246.2 million in the fourth quarter. During the quarter, we repurchased 210,000 shares of our common stock. Now going to Slide 5. Today, major industry participants are constructing or upgrading significant wireline networks across broad sections of the country. These wireline networks are generally designed to provision gigabit network speeds to individual consumers and businesses either directly or wirelessly using 5G technologies. Industry participants have stated their belief that a single high-capacity fiber network can most cost-effectively deliver services to both consumers and businesses, enabling multiple revenue streams from a single investment. This view is increasing the appetite for fiber deployments, and we believe that the industry effort to deploy high-capacity fiber networks continues to meaningfully broaden the set of opportunities for our industry. Increasing access to high-capacity telecommunications continues to be crucial to society, especially in rural America. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act includes over $40 billion for the construction of rural communications networks in unserved and underserved areas across the country. This represents an unprecedented level of support. In addition, substantially all states have commenced programs that will provide funding for telecommunications networks even prior to the initiation of funding under the Infrastructure Act. We are providing program management, planning, engineering and design, aerial, underground and wireless construction, and fulfillment services for gigabit deployments. These services are being provided across the country in numerous geographic areas to multiple customers. These deployments include networks consisting entirely of wired network elements and converged wireless/wireline multiuse networks. Fiber network deployment opportunities are increasing in rural America as new industry participants respond to emerging societal initiatives. We continue to provide integrated planning, engineering and design, procurement, construction, and maintenance services to several industry participants. Macroeconomic conditions, including those impacting the cost of capital, may influence the execution of some industry plans. In addition, the market for labor remains tight in many regions around the country. Automotive and equipment supply chains remain challenged, particularly for the large truck chassis required for specialty equipment. Prices for capital equipment continued to increase. It remains to be seen how long these conditions may persist. We expect demand to continue to fluctuate amongst customers but are encouraged that several have newly initiated or reiterated their commitment to programs of significant size and duration. Within this context, we remain confident that our scale and financial strength position us well to deliver valuable service to our customers. Moving to Slide 6. During the quarter, organic revenue increased 20.5%. Our top five customers combined produced 65.8% of revenue, increasing 24.4% organically. Demand increased from four of our top five customers. All other customers increased 13.6% organically. AT&T was our largest customer at 22.5% of total revenue or $206.6 million. This was our eighth consecutive quarter of organic growth with AT&T. Lumen was our second largest customer at 12% of revenue or $110.3 million. Lumen grew organically 64.6%, excluding operations sold to Brightspeed from the year-ago period. This was our fourth consecutive quarter of organic growth with Lumen. Revenue from Comcast was $98.7 million or 10.8% of revenue. Comcast was Dycom's third-largest customer. Frontier was our fourth-largest customer at $97.5 million or 10.6% of revenue. Frontier grew 152.8% organically. Finally, Verizon was our fifth-largest customer at $90.5 million or 9.9% of revenue. Verizon grew 17.6% organically. This was our second quarter of organic growth with Verizon. This is the third consecutive quarter where our top five customers grew organically in excess of 20% and the 16th consecutive quarter where all of our other customers in aggregate, excluding the top five customers have grown organically. Of note, fiber construction revenue from electric utilities was $74.9 million in the quarter and increased 30.4% year-over-year. We have extended our geographic reach and expanded our program management and network planning services. In fact, over the last several years, we believe we have meaningfully increased the long-term value of our maintenance and operations business, a trend which we believe will parallel our deployment of gigabit wireline direct and wireless/wireline converged networks as those deployments dramatically increase the amount of outside plant network that must be extended and maintained. Now going to Slide 7. Backlog at the end of the fourth quarter was $6.141 billion versus $6.116 billion at the end of the October 2022 quarter, an increase of $25 million. Of this backlog, approximately $3.459 billion is expected to be completed in the next 12 months. Backlog activity during the fourth quarter reflects solid performance as we booked new work and renewed existing work. We continue to anticipate substantial future opportunities across a broad array of our customers. During the quarter, we received from Lumen fiber construction agreements in Nevada, Utah, Nebraska, Iowa and Florida. Our Brightspeed construction and maintenance agreements in Kansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia, Tennessee and North Carolina. From Charter, rural fiber construction agreements in Missouri and Tennessee. Various utility line located agreements in Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland and Georgia, and various rural fiber construction agreements in Washington, Nevada, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, South Carolina and Georgia. Headcount was 15,410.

Thanks, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Going to Slide 8. Contract revenues were $917.5 million, and organic revenue increased 20.5%. Adjusted EBITDA was $83.1 million or 9.1% of revenue compared to $43.3 million or 5.7% of revenue. This reflects an improvement of 337 basis points compared to Q4 '22. Gross margin was 16.5% of revenue compared to 13.8% in Q4 '22. The increase of 278 basis points reflects improved operating performance at a higher level of revenue in the current period. G&A expense of 7.8% improved 53 basis points compared to Q4 '22 from improved operating leverage and tight management of costs. Net income was $0.83 per share compared to $0.03 per share in Q4 last year. The increase in earnings reflects higher adjusted EBITDA, lower depreciation and amortization, and higher gains on asset sales, partially offset by higher stock-based compensation, interest expense, and taxes. The effective income tax rate of 22% this quarter was slightly below our expectation. Looking ahead to Q1, we expect an effective income tax rate of approximately 26%. Going to Slide 9. Our financial position and balance sheet remain strong. We ended Q4 with $500 million of senior notes, $332.5 million of term loan and no revolver borrowings. Cash and equivalents were $224.2 million and liquidity was strong at $757.8 million. Our capital allocation prioritizes organic growth, followed by opportunistic share repurchases and M&A within the context of our historical range of net leverage. Going to Slide 10. Cash flows from operating activities were strong at $246.2 million in Q4. Capital expenditures were $62.3 million, net of disposal proceeds and gross CapEx was $65.2 million. Capital expenditures net for the full year of fiscal 2023 were $183.6 million. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2024, we expect net CapEx to range from $220 million to $230 million. During Q4, we repurchased 210,000 shares of our common stock for $20.2 million. The combined DSOs of accounts receivable and net contract assets was 108 days, a decrease of 4 days sequentially as we had solid collections from customers during the quarter. Going to Slide 11. As we look ahead to the quarter ending April 29, 2023, we expect contract revenues to increase mid- to high single digits as a percentage of contract revenues compared to Q1 of last year, and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA percentage of contract revenues to increase modestly compared to Q1 of last year. We also expect $10.6 million of net interest expense reflecting higher market interest rates compared to the prior year period and an increase in interest income. Lastly, we expect a 26% effective income tax rate and 29.8 million diluted shares.

Thanks, Drew. Moving to Slide 12. This quarter, we experienced solid activity and capitalized on our significant strengths. First and foremost, we maintained significant customer presence throughout our markets. We are encouraged by the breadth in our business. Our extensive market presence has allowed us to be at the forefront of evolving industry opportunities. Telephone companies are deploying fiber-to-the-home to enable gigabit high-speed connections, increasingly rural electric utilities are doing the same. Dramatically increased speeds for consumers are being provisioned and consumer data usage is growing, particularly upstream. In fact, during the fourth quarter, gigabit connections doubled to over 25% of all broadband subscribers. Wireless construction activity in support of newly available spectrum bands continues this year. Federal and state support for rural deployments of communications networks is dramatically increasing in scale and duration. Cable operators are increasing fiber deployments for rural America, capacity expansion projects are underway. Customers are consolidating supply chains, creating opportunities for market share growth and increasing the long-term value of our maintenance and operations business. As our nation and industry navigate economic uncertainty, we remain encouraged that a growing number of our customers are committed to multiyear capital spending initiatives. We are confident in our strategies, the prospects for our company, the capabilities of our dedicated employees and the experience of our management team. Now operator, we will open the call for questions.

Our first question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS.

So Steven, it sounds like you still have a positive view of the bigger picture cycle on fiber investments. Can you just maybe give us some sense of how you see the rest of the year playing out after Q1? As to what extent do you think that range of outcomes has narrowed a bit now that your language is a bit more positive than last quarter? I'm just curious how you kind of see the net of some customer puts and takes on some of their comments.

Sure, Steve. There's obviously been lots of commentary in the industry about how calendar '22 finished and how people are thinking about calendar '23. Look at some research just this week that had about 6.6 million homes completed in '22, an expectation of about 7.5 million homes this year. So a nice increase. I think that's something that we certainly see as an opportunity in the business for us to grow. I think we also are encouraged by customer commentary on their earnings calls or Analyst Days, where they either initiated or reiterated commitments to programs of pretty significant size and duration. So, it's a year. Obviously, no guarantees, but we feel pretty good this year based on everything that we see.

Okay. And then I guess from a margin perspective, it seemed like some of the customers were maybe pulling back on the number of fiber passings just because the costs were higher. And I'm curious how you see that playing out through your margins. Are you kind of passing along dollar-for-dollar inflation, and that's maybe a drag on the margin percentages? Or can we expect maybe some acceleration in margins over the course of the year as it seems like you should now be done with that challenging legacy projects you're getting a higher scale of revenues? Just curious how you see the margin trajectory from here?

Yes. I think, Steve, with respect to kind of our customers' cost to pass, I mean, there's lots of inputs into that calculation. We're certainly one of them. I think at least in our experience, and this is not for any specific customer, but generally, their costs reflect the mix of types of work that they're performing. Aerial work is obviously less expensive than buried work. From our perspective, we are comfortable with where we are with customers. We're having good conversations, and I don't think we would characterize them any more than that. But we have seen fluctuation in the overall number of costs per homes passed over time. I think with respect to margins, I mean, we certainly will have less margin headwind, as we've talked about before, out of this closing out of this large customer program, we've had good conversations about the cost of the business right now in a period where labor is tight. And no guarantees, but again, we feel optimistic about this year.

Our next question comes from the line of Adam Thalhimer with Thompson Davis.

Great quarter. Steve, the unnamed customer, this is actually your best quarter from them. It was a January quarter. Is there anything lined up for this year that would cause you to expect growth there?

Again, Adam, I'd just reiterate what we were talking about with Steve is that there have been a number of customers that have publicly talked about expanding their programs either in markets that they currently serve or in expansion markets, and we're pleased to participate where we can provide valuable service.

I would like to know more about Brightspeed. I'm curious if the revenue you reported in Q4 came primarily from legacy maintenance work. Additionally, with the new territories announced, are they on track to become a top five customer?

Well, I don't know that we ever speculate, Adam, on who's going to be in or out. We hope everybody goes up and that we get our fair share of the business. The states that we announced this quarter are really an extension of our current maintenance agreements. You might recall a couple of quarters ago, we talked about some fiber awards with them in four states. Those projects are underway. They are very focused on deploying fiber and have a very experienced management team. We've worked with them when they were with other folks in the industry, and we're working hard to meet their expectations every day.

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Dwyer with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

This is Alex on for Sean this morning. So I guess your CapEx this year came in higher than the high end of your range for this year. I think you guys were waiting on a pretty sizable equipment order as of last quarter. And then your CapEx guide for this upcoming year reflects quite a bit of growth. Can you just talk about what this increase in spending kind of tells us about your growth expectation and maybe the equipment supply chain conditions?

Sure. So we were pleased that in the fourth quarter, Alex, that we received a little bit more equipment than what we had expected when last we talked. I think we had said on last call, if it all showed up, we'd be happy to put it to work. And so we certainly did receive a little more than we expected. We have a positive bias on investing in the business. Organic growth supported by CapEx is always a good use of the cash flow that we generate in the business. I think I just checked yesterday, we have in excess of $86 million of capital equipment on order right now. So we continue to order equipment. Delays are long cycle. So we're trying to anticipate where we need to order equipment and continue to try to meet the needs of the customers by investing in the business.

Got it. And I just wanted to ask about cable. It looks like the passings and CapEx growth expectations for 2023 are pretty robust across a couple of your key customers. Just curious what you're seeing from the cable companies if there's any change in how you're thinking about the cable opportunity set going forward?

Sure. There's certainly been some pretty good increases in expectation around the technical upgrades to their equipment to facilitate capacity expansion. That's less construction intensive, but something that we're pleased to participate in. And then I think that generally, the cable industry has been reasonably aggressive or maybe really aggressive around fiber deployments in rural America. There's lots of state-level funding that's available prior to the BEAD funding, and we're encouraged with the opportunities that we're seeing for cable operators as they hedge out their networks into rural America.

Our next question comes from the line of Brent Thielman with D.A. Davidson.

Steve, this is the best January quarter margins I think we've seen since 2018. And I guess I'm wondering, are the inflationary headwinds you've seen in past quarters effectively negligible at this point when you look at it from a year-on-year comparison? Or have you crossed that line where that's sort of effectively beyond you?

I mean, certainly, labor is still tight. It's a little bit easier to secure than it was last summer. But I think what I'd point to more than that, Brent, was we had a pretty solid November, December period and then January's weather, not everywhere, was generally unseasonably good. So it allowed us to really address a substantial amount of work. So good solid performance in the first couple of months and then just really much better weather on average. Not in California, not in the Rocky Mountains, but in the bulk of the country, just a little better environment in which to operate.

Yes. Okay. And then I guess a question on cash flow. I guess, to the extent that you do see growth moderate from 20% to 5% to 10%, effectively what the guidance is suggesting. Should there be any change to potential sequence of cash flows in fiscal 2024, maybe compared to what we saw in 2023? And then also, is there a maintenance CapEx level to think about for your business as we think about what you're putting in here in '24 versus past?

Let me address the second question, and then I'll hand it over to Drew. Historically, maintenance capital expenditures typically account for about 40% of spending. It’s a bit more challenging to determine this in the current environment because we’ve extended the useful lives of some assets due to difficulties in obtaining replacements. Our fleet has always been well-maintained, which allowed us to do this. As a result, the proportion of maintenance CapEx may now be slightly higher, but a significant portion of the capital expenditures is still allocated for growth. Now, Drew?

Yes, Brent. So if you look at the balance sheet and where we're thinking the outlook is on revenue. So we do see some growth there. But with DSOs, they got better this quarter. They were at 108 days. We continue to work on that as a factor, but this is after a year where we had 20% organic growth. And that…

Or to put a point on it, Brent, $677.8 million of organic growth, I think.

Yes. And certainly, put some demands on working capital but we finished the year strong in terms of cash collections, and we're able to improve on the DSO sequentially. So pleased with that.

Okay. And so do you anticipate those DSOs continue to come down?

Look, in a business that's grown as rapidly as we have, with customers that are growing their own infrastructure to support kind of these growth rates, we're all working hard to get the bills and then get the cash in, so we can always do better.

Our next question comes from the line of Noelle Dilts with Stifel.

So Steve, this conference call seems to me to have a decidedly more positive tone than you did at the third quarter. And it turned out that your fourth quarter guidance was conservative from both a revenue standpoint and a margin improvement standpoint. So can you kind of help me understand the key factors that sort of changed and that drove some of the outperformance relative to the time of the third quarter call and what's driving some of that confidence? I understand you said several of your customers reiterated plans, but I'm curious if there's anything a little bit more specific that helped to drive the outperformance?

Well, I think, Noelle, first, as we talked about with respect to the weather, year-over-year, the weather was a bigger factor as we got deeper into the quarter. As we've always said, our fourth quarter is hard to forecast because January has two holidays in our calendar, the week between Christmas and New Year's as well as the potential risk that you get a bunch of bad weather broadly across the country in the back half of January. So I would tell you that the revenue got on a year-over-year basis and against expectation was really outperformed the deeper we got into the quarter. I think we were encouraged as the quarter went by with some Analyst Day presentations from some customers as well as their comments on their calls. Specifically, for example, with Lumen, as they reassessed the program and disclosed that they expect to spend $200 million to $250 million incremental this year over last on the Quantum Fiber program. So I just think we had a number of data points that came in either late in the quarter or subsequent to the end of the quarter.

Sure. And regarding Lumen, I had another question. They've been quite clear about halting the Quantum Fiber builders, even stating they would stop spending in the fourth quarter. However, you reported 65% growth with Lumen, which seems inconsistent with their statements. How can we reconcile their pause in spending with the positive numbers you are seeing?

I think it's important to remember that we offer other services for Lumen, and we are actively supporting their network in many parts of the country. Additionally, as we reviewed their statements, it became evident that they had re-evaluated their plans for fiber construction. Now that they have completed that reassessment, they have set targets for this year that we're happy to help achieve. In other words, while they may have changed their approach, we are eager to continue working on projects that align with this new strategy.

Great. Okay. Great. And then last, I was hoping you could comment just on AT&T. They've reiterated that their $30-plus million home target for 2025, but have talked about sort of a slower pace of core passing. There may be some differences in how they're defining those homes. But then obviously, they've talked about this JV build with BlackRock. Could you maybe talk about how you're thinking about the opportunity when you look at the core opportunity versus the JV?

Yes. I think, again, Noelle, we do lots of things for AT&T. As we talked about last quarter, we started a pretty sizable locating contract for them at the beginning of the year. So, we've added a couple of hundred employees for them. In terms of the fiber passings, I mean, we may see some moderation in our business. We don't work for them everywhere. They're a big customer. But we're still encouraged with the commitment that more generally that customers have made to the targets they set forth and generally frame those as targets they'd like to hit or more if that makes sense in their business.

Our next question comes from the line of Christian Schwab with Craig-Hallum.

Just a follow-up on the previous question on Lumen and their new approach kind of targeting more NFL cities, if I understand, if they're conveying correctly. I just want to make sure that what I heard there, Steve, is that new approach and that new shift, do you feel extremely well-positioned to benefit from? Is that what I heard?

Yes. We widely support Lumen in their efforts, not only on this program but in other areas. And as we always say, Christian, we've got to earn the business every day, but we feel like we're in a good position to provide valuable service to the customer, again, one day at a time.

Yes, understood. Regarding the follow-up on the initial questions about top-line growth, all of our analyses compared to your competitors, both public and private, indicate significant excitement about growth opportunities in wireline across the various aspects you mentioned, and we are expecting strong double-digit growth rates. Should we also anticipate seeing this on your end?

Well, I think, Christian, as always, it's a big industry. It depends on the size of the entity you're talking to and which particular pockets of demand they're addressing. I think we certainly see good growth opportunities. We've got to execute against them. I think as we work our way through the year, there will be increased opportunities resulting out of government funding, not just the BEAD program, which may be late in the year. But certainly, some of the ARPA funds are still coming into the economy, state-level activity providing funds based on the state program. So I think there are lots of opportunities. We're not giving guidance for the year. We had a really strong quarter, again, a strong quarter, and a strong year. So the comps may be a little tougher this year compared to last, but we're still optimistic about our prospects.

Okay. Great. No other questions and hopefully, you can bring better weather to Minnesota as soon as possible and do more work here. Talk to you later, Steve.

That may be a global warming opportunity for you, Christian. I'm not sure we can change Minnesota's weather.

Our next question comes from Alex Rygiel with B. Riley.

Thank you. Steve, very nice quarter. Can you remind us what you believe the industry can provide and Dycom-like services deserve as it relates to gross margin and EBITDA margin?

Alex, and we'll focus our comments on EBITDA margin. There have certainly been periods of time where we've had broadly distributed growth where EBITDA margins have approached mid-teens. We're not there now. We have opportunities to improve the business. We're working hard to do that. I think we've had good control around our G&A. We've had some inflationary impact over the last year or so in the cost of goods. And so we've got lots of work to do. We're continuing to do that. I think there's nothing structural that says we can't get back there but it's going to be the result of a sustained effort.

And you highlighted your maintenance and operations business. I suspect that's increasing as a percentage of total. Is that accretive or dilutive to your margins right now?

Alex, we always think about any activity that we provide customers as a function of the amount of capital that we invest. If we have similar levels of capital in the maintenance and operations business compared to a construction or capital-related business, they'll have about the same returns. There are some activities where we've performed well in those businesses, too. It's a function of the capital that's required that ultimately drives margins. Of course, we have to perform to earn those margins.

And one last question, if I may. In some years, your customers begin the new year slowly, sometimes due to economic uncertainty or other factors. It seems like January was strong. Can you share any insights about February? Is there any risk that, due to the favorable weather, you might be ahead of your customers' plans?

The weather really isn't an effect on customer plans. What we got done in January had to be planned and permitted long before January. So I really think that was just the opportunity to get out and execute the work. With respect to the April quarter, this is another one that is back-end loaded. April's weather obviously is better than February and March. I would say February's weather generally was a little more challenged than January. And certainly, there's been some more weather impacts in California. But this is a quarter that always resolves itself or performs based on how we do in April just because there will be more daylight, better weather, and just more to get done.

Our next question comes from Alan Mitrani with Sylvan Lake Asset Management.

I have a couple of just quick housekeeping questions and then a main question. Drew, can you talk about the tax rate for the year as opposed to just the quarter? Where do you expect that to be?

Alan, I mean, we provided it for the quarter, but typically, that's based on annual analysis. So if you look back at this past year, we did have some credits that came through; that's why it came in lower. But I think that 26% range has generally been the planning target.

Okay. That's fair. And then Brightspeed, the contracts were for one-year contracts versus three-year for Lumen. Is this more the nature of the ownership or the kind of assets they have? Can you just talk about the duration of the contracts you highlighted?

Yes, Alan, I'm not going to get into characterizing any individual customer's behavior, but it's not unusual when you have an ownership change, and there are a lot of things that they're working on for them just to extend the agreements we have with them as they work on other things that are a priority. I wouldn't read a lot into that one way or another just anytime there's a transaction, there's a lot of things for the customer to work on.

Okay. And then wireless revenues in the quarter?

Yes, it was a little bit less than 5% of total, with a growth rate of about 4% year-over-year. I think this is a year, Alan, in '23 that we see a solid year, but we are seeing much less small cell activity. That's having some impact on the growth rate.

Okay. And then to understand, you're spending CapEx at like 20-plus percent year-over-year on a net basis this year, probably this coming year. And your backlog, and your revenues grew 20-plus percent, but it seems like you're seemingly guiding to and where the street is and all the rest, and backlog is only growing as well mid-single digits and yet your revenues were up 20-plus percent. Can you help us with that disconnect and where revenues are going to? Because it sounds like the way it should be, hearing competitors and customers, things should be building through the year given all the money coming from the government as these results come out, although mindful of Alex's question as it relates to customer cadence and higher cost of capital and all the rest with an economic slowdown, I'm just trying to reconcile the 20-plus percent revenue growth and CapEx spends with the single-digit backlog growth and seemingly single-digit guidance as it heads out. So can you help us with that?

Yes. With respect to the revenue guidance again on the April quarter, Alan, as we mentioned earlier, anytime you have a growth year like we did last year, the comps get a little bit harder. As we've talked about before, there can be fluctuation among customers as programs come in and then other programs moderate. And so we're trying to give you a kind of a reasonable view of where we see the business. And then with respect to backlog, as we've always talked about before, the way we calculate backlog, total backlog is loosely correlated with the next 12 months of revenue. I'd probably point you more to the growth that we've seen in the next 12 months backlog, which I think is consistent with a view that we have some good opportunities this year.

Okay. Regarding Noelle's question, last time you provided guidance in November, you exceeded those expectations significantly. In this quarter, while January was stronger, which may have been influenced by weather, when you consider seasonal trends, your revenues this quarter didn't deviate much from historical patterns. For the upcoming quarter, you're projecting just a quarter of your typical seasonal figures. Is this simply a matter of caution with April's performance influencing the entire quarter? Please help clarify.

In the last quarter, we experienced improved year-over-year revenue performance in December and January. January presented some unseasonable weather, leading to a shift in typical revenue growth patterns from January to April due to a stronger than expected January. Additionally, we offer detailed insights on our trend schedule, highlighting customer fluctuations that can lead to timing variations regarding both moderating and incoming programs. Given the robust organic growth achieved last year, we are cautious about making predictions for this year.

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to Steven Nielsen for closing remarks.

Well, we appreciate everybody's time and attention and participation in the call, and we'll look forward to speaking to you at the end of May after the April quarter. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.