Conference Transcript - E 2026-03-19

Operator

and welcome to ENI 2026 Capital Market Update, hosted by Mr. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive Officer. For the duration of the call, you will be in listen-only mode. However, at the end of the call, you will have the opportunity to ask questions by pressing star and one on your telephone. I am now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

Good afternoon and welcome to ENI's 2026 Capital Markets Update. Today's presentation of the 2026-2030 plan follows an exceptional year of delivery for ENI. In previous events, we have highlighted the consistency of our strategy, our execution at pace, and our capital discipline that drove the outcome. today's update will again be anchored on these teams making us confident in the progress and delivery over the new five-year strategic window as you will be familiar four connected and synergistic pillars underpin our strategy the first pillar is emp where we have an outstanding portfolio of assets largely originated from our exploration activity in a combination of infrastructure-led, near-field, and high-impact opportunities. This feeds a growing business with an outstanding time-to-market track record, and heals a deep geographically and geologically diversified portfolio. The second pillar is the creation of material diversified transition businesses high growth integrated with customers and self-funding the third pillar is technology which helps to make our emp so distinctive and is the core driver of our transition business technology we also open new opportunities in areas such as ccs stationary batteries and low carbon power. The fourth pillar is our corporate structure and financial strategy. The satellite model continues to unlock value, allowing capital, opening a large set of optionality and supporting growth. We continue to secure strong partnerships with important investment firms and national champions we fund our growth and deliver competitive free cash flow and highly attractive returns to shareholders while maintaining the lowest sustained leverage in our company history and we increase the value of our participation in listed companies through dividend and share appreciation. To deliver these objectives successfully through the cycle requires a consistency of purpose and strategy. At the same time, aimed at rapid change and volatility is also essential that we are agile and innovative, and afraid in challenging mainstream models, and all conventions. I want to emphasize ours is a full industrial strategy. We own resources, assets, and projects that visibly underpin our growth objectives. We will deliver the secure, affordable, and progressively low-carbon energy our customers demand. And importantly, we have the skills, the know-how, the technology, and the people to deliver those projects. The credibility of our outlook is enhanced by our track record. Last year I promised that the momentum we have built through 2024 would be carried in 2025. As shown by our results reported last month, we delivered on that promise and more providing important proof points for us. First, growth in each of our businesses, in the upstream, with a particular focus on LNG, in biorefinery and renewables. This growth has been a defining feature of 2024-2025 and is distinctive to any. The outlook for continued growth was underlined by our sector-leading reserves replacement ratio. The rising renewables generation integrated with clients and by refining capacity, supported by our agri-feed stock. Second, enhanced financials. We deliver stronger than expected cash generation. We optimize cost and working capital. And we also strengthened our balance sheet with lower gearing, now down to 14% from 18%. Third, enhanced distributions. Any was unique among its peer group in raising its buyback during 2025, confirming our commitment to share upside with our investors. And fourth, any shares delivered as a sector-leading shareholder return 50% through 2025 in U.S. dollar terms. Our 2026-2030 plan envisages, in summary, E&P growth of 3-4% CAGR, powered by the deepest and most diverse project portfolio in our history. Along with continued exploration success, this will support growth and provide optionality in 2030s. The new barrels will be highly accretive to free cash flow, margins on equity production will be fully captured along the value chain, and we expect to see material watching improvement. In our transition businesses, AnyLive is now executing on significant portion of projects to triple biorefining capacity by 2030. Similarly, Plenitude is on track for a near tripling of renewable capacity, increasing its customer base by 50% by the end of the decade. while our plan to deconstruct that the company will provide it with significant scope to invest and grow efficiently. Leveraging integration with clients both businesses will materially grow earnings and provide valuable balance to any result. Our financial outlook sees disciplined growth focus investment. CFO is expected to grow by around 50% to €17 billion by 2030, and combined with the discipline capes, heals free cash flow over the next five years, equivalent to around 70% of our current market capitalization. With sustained historically low gearing, this leaves room for us to announce our distribution policy targeting to allocate 35 to 45 percent of CFFO to distribution through a combination of dividends and buybacks with scenario and performance upside. Our EMP business is outstanding and integrating gas trading and power activity. We aim to capture the maximum margin from our equity production. Inspiration is a distinctive feature for our EMP and is in its main value generator, as we showed in the past in terms of higher success rate, low cost per barrel, and dual expiration valorization. Since 2014, we have averaged source addition of 900 million barrels a year, or 140% of our annual production at $1 per barrel, totalling around $11 billion barrels. These additions have come from multiple geographies, more than 20 countries, and different places, emphasizing the strength of our exploration process. Value is realized by accelerating discovered resources into P1 reserves, as shown by our sector-leading 167% reserve replacement ratio in 2025. Our expectation is to average over 140% reserve replacement ratio over 2026-2030, as we sanction new projects. We also retain and use the option to go for early valorization of a portion of our discoveries, the risking economic returns. In this respect, we have realized more than $13 billion since 2013 through dual exploration. 2025 was another good year for exploration with important discoveries made in Namibia, Indonesia, Angola, and Norway. We added 900 million borrow in line with our annual average track record. In 2026, we will be active in West and North Africa, in Norway and Southeast Asia. We will continue to add new opportunities as, for instance, we recently did in Uruguay in partnership with YPF. In fact, 2026 has got off to an excellent start with discoveries announced on Block 1506 offshore Angola, Calao south offshore Côte d'Ivoire, and Libya with more than 400 million barrels discovered so far. Our EMP business will deliver high competitive operational and financial performance over the plan. our production growth is accelerating. Volume growth since 2022 has been sector-leading and will be even higher through the plan. We will deliver reported production cag of 3 to 4 percent to 2030, leaving room for continued discipline and value-enhancing dual respiration valorization and high-grading actions. Just as importantly, we are transforming our portfolio as we grow it. Indeed, thanks to an average internal rate of return of around 20% for new projects and an overall portfolio breakeven of less than $30 per barrel, by 2030 we expect to raise ROACI to around 15% and reach a free cash flow per barrel 50% higher than 2025. Our portfolio is also improving in terms of geographical diversification and production mix. We are adding greater exposure to Southeast Asia and the Americas that will make up more than 30% of our P1 resource base in 2030. And over the same time, LNG's shares of production will increase by 11 percentage points. Finally, alongside our operational and financial performance, we will continue to reduce our emissions. We have cut our scope 1 and 2 upstream net emissions by 68% since 2018, and we expect to achieve zero routine flaring this year. Turning more detail to our EMP portfolio, our opportunity set is the best in the company's history. Thanks to the depth and breadth of our portfolio, spanning geographies and technologies, we have 850,000 barrels per day of new production at 2030 from projects under development of which around 90% operated by any or one of our satellites. And now I want to shed more light on two of our major projects starting with our JV with Petronas. Just over a year ago, we announced the transformational partnership with Petronas in Indonesia and Malaysia, countries optimally positioned to supply key Asian markets. The agreement was finalized in November and is expected to complete at mid-year. As previously disclosed, the JEV, to be named the SEARA, will on completion have a production of more than 300,000 barrels per day, rising to over 500,000 barrels per day of production by 2029. It combines our Coutain Basin assets, less a 10% stake to be valorized to a third party in 2026, with a portfolio of patronage production, development and exploration assets in Indonesia and Malaysia, located offshore Sarawak and Peninsula. Combined, this portfolio includes more than 3 billion barrels of discurred reserves and 10 billion barrels of unrisked exploration potential. Seara will act as a holding company for three operating companies, for the Any Legacy Activities, the Petronas Indonesia and Petronas Malaysia Activities. By virtue of its strong organic cash flow, it is expected CERA will be investment-grade and self-funding in addition to paying dividends to its shareholders, similar to our other EMP satellites. Focusing down on the assets in the Kutane Basin in the south is our Junk Creek FU, which will reach a plateau of over 700 million caps per day that will be maintained into the 2030s by virtue of additional tie-ins such as Ma and Gendalo and Gendang. The Northern Hub will initially see the development of GANG and GEM, where we have just taken FID, based around a new-built FPSO with 1 billion k-per-day gas and 90,000 bar-per-day liquid capacity, due on stream by end-2028. it. Northern hub gas will be supplied to the Bontang plant, and the engineering studies are now underway to reactivate a fourth train. Turning to the Petronas assets, these include around 20,000 to 30,000 barrels per day of mainly oil production offshore peninsular assets and offshore Sarawak. The patronage asset initially contributes around 230,000 bar per day of production, split 90% gas and 10% oil. Looking further ahead, there is also considerable upside from the exploration potential in both portfolio. We recently made the contact discovery close to Gang North, and we have other exciting prospects to be drilled this year. In its initial form, CERA is already a material player in Southeast Asia. Our entry into Argentina as a partner of YPF originates also from our track record in project delivery and cost-efficient floating LNG. We are the largest players in floating LNG worldwide, with three plants already in operation in Mozambique and Congo, and a fourth under construction for the development of Cora North. Our Argentina LNG project will produce around 1.8 BCF of gas, exporting 12 million tons per year from two floating LNGs. In addition, the acreage will produce around 200,000 bar per day of liquid shale resources. Our position will be integrated right along the value chain. With our partners, YPF and XRG, we are targeting FID later this year, with first production in 2030, contributing to growing visibility of our production beyond 2030. Based on the vacuum water resources and our technology, we expect to be able to deliver LNG at a highly competitive cost of supply. Our upstream is a distinctive feature of any. But another differentiating factor versus our peers and something that is changing the profile of Vane itself has been how we have seized the emerging opportunities of the transition. A particular feature of our transition satellite is the combination of growth component, renewables and biofuels with a value one represented by our customers. We have created high-growth self-funding companies that, as proved by recent transactions, bringing in aligned funding capital, have an aggregate enterprise value of over €23 billion. Together, these two companies will generate an EBITDA of around €5.5 billion by 2030. The recovery in European biomargin since the second half of 2025 has demonstrated the value of Enelide, with the combination of its biorefining and retail marketing. We remain very positive for the prospect of biofuel as the only realistic solution to cut emissions from hard-to-abate transportation sectors. sectors. A notable feature of the AnyLive plan is the construction of new capacity now underway. We are currently the largest developer of new capacity worldwide. The conversion of the Vorno refinery was joined by the construction now underway of both Bangarang in Malaysia and their sun in South Korea. Earlier this year, we confirmed the FAD of a biorefining line at our San Nazaro Conventional Refinery, and we announced the partnership with Kuwait to develop a new biorefinery in Priolo. Net to any life, this is 1.8 million tons of new capacity expansion underway, more than doubling capacity, and over 50% of the amount required to meet our 2030 target of 5 million tons. We also confirmed that within the total, we will have more than 2 million tons of SAF optionality. Of course, the uniqueness of any life lies in its integration. In 2025, we expanded our Agri-Hub activities, supplying around 200,000 tons of feedstock to our refineries, around 10 times of the 2024 volumes. Over time, we will reach around 35% of our domestic need in this way, and our retail business will continue to play a crucial role in terms of both physical integration and cash flow. We still expect Enelive to roughly triple EBITDA from 1.1 billion euro in 2026 to 3 billion euro by 2030, with ROACI to exceed 15%. This rate of growth and financial performance emphasizes SSN underscores the recent post-money valuation of €11.75 billion that we recorded in our deal with KKR for a 30% stake. Unically among our peers, we have built a standalone sustainable business model for our renewable activities. In less than five years, we have reached 5.8 gigawatts of restored renewable capacity, balanced with 10 million customers. All of this has been achieved with a net cash benefit to any thanks to a sales proceed of around 3 billion euro and the cash generation associated with our customers' base. For 2026, we expect an EBITDA of 1.3 billion euro, a 20% growth versus last year, with 6.5 gigawatts in store renewables capacity and 11.5 million clients, following the acquisition of a chair customer's portfolio. We have now entered a new phase in which Plenitude's growth plan will continue, and we want to ensure that there is no conflict with other investment opportunities in any. As we reach this ready material position and now look to build out the plenitude model toward 15 gigawatt and 15 million clients in 2030, we are focused on the most efficient capital structure for the company. In this context, we present the plan for the deconsolidation of plenitude. involving a 1.5 billion euro non-proportional capital increase to be subscribed by the shareholders. We intend to work toward a governance structure that empowers Plenitude to reach its own growth target, optimizing its leverage. The deconsolidation applied by Q2 has a positive effect on any gearing of 4% points, while reducing in 2026 our CFO by 400 million euros. Alongside exploration, technology represents a key value generator for reining. Since 2014, we have been strengthening our R&D with seven research centers covering all businesses, as well as our partnership with universities, research institutes, and startups. And through technology, we have created material value both in EMP and in transition businesses. Our technology and know-how underpin our five-year plan and position us for the longer terms in key activities. Looking ahead into the 2030s, our EMP resources, coupled with our high-performance computers and propriety algorithms, including AI, provide us with the optionality to respond in the right way to oil and gas demand. This is especially true for gas, where, through our proven know-how and skills, we are also the global leaders in floating LNG. At the same time, technology is at the core of our transition activities. Our renewables, paired with the stationary batteries, will continue to grow significantly. to satisfy our customers' demand. And biofuels and CCS will keep supporting the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors while preserving existing infrastructure and jobs. Alongside these already available technologies, in the future, fusion will play a key role in the energy sector. And we are already positioned to capture this upside, since we are a strategic partner and the main investor of CFS, the world-leading private fusion company. And now, I leave the floor to Francesco for the financials.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

Thank you, Claudio. Our objective is to optimize a balance of growth and attractive returns on investment that maximizes value for investors. The growth in our plan accounts for around 60% of total gross capex, with the satellite's key enabling that investment. Our gross capex plan calls for an investment of 7 billion euro in 2026, 18% below 2025 levels. Over the plan period to 2030, we plan to invest around €29 billion in gross capex, at an average of just under €6 billion per year. This compares with more than €8 billion per year in the 2025-2028 plan. When compared with last year, around 70% of the change is accounted for by foreign exchange, around 50% is perimeter and the remainder is efficiency in spend split evenly between a fast growing upstream and other businesses. M&A actions and the grading of our portfolio receive significant attention from us. We expect to generate valorization and divestment receipts right across the plan and net capes will average around 5 billion euro per year. As we proved last year, this is a risked amount, and we should expect an upside to our base case in terms of valorization action. Material free cash flow enhancement and per share growth are a distinct quality of any. We expect to generate over 70 billion euros in CFFO over the four-year plan, with annual CFFFO growing to €17 billion by 2030, 36% higher than 2025. This equates to a 14% CAG on a per share basis. For 2026, at our reference scenario, raised to $70 barrel, we expect to make around €11.5 billion of GFFFO. This reflects the perimeter effects associated with the deconsolidation of plenitude, a more normalized cash tax rate, and lower run-off contribution, mainly in GDP and power. As a result of our Advantage project, CAPEX discipline and contribution from satellites we expect to convert our cash flow from operation into free cash flow of more than 45 billion euro in the period. This is equivalent to around 70% of our current market capitalization or over half of our entire enterprise value. It is a remarkable dual outcome also alongside the larger and more valuable any in 2030 that we have described. We expect to efficiently glow our upstream, capturing increased margin from a progressively high-graded portfolio. Our transition businesses will expand, adding significant scale and profitability. In addition, we are taking continuing action on cost management and simplification. And of course, performance improvement in our transformation activities. We have raised our cost reduction target for 2024-2027 to 2.3 billion euro from the original 1.8 billion euro. I have also said that our objective is to deliver growth but also higher returns on capital. We can reaffirm we expect to generate around 13% Ruachi by 2030, a strong outcome for a business with option to continue to grow in an highly competitive fashion. Our scenario for 2026 is set out slide 28 and uses $70 Brent and 36 EUR megawatt hour for TTF. At the end of 2025 proforma gearing including announced but not yet closed transaction was 14%. We expect gearing to remain around this level between 10 and 15% over the course of the plan. This equates to a net debt on EBITDA in the range of 0.5-0.85. Since 2018, we have cashed in 15 billion euros from our satellites, and we expect a further 16 billion euros over the plan. Our two listed EMP stakes are worth now over 8 billion euros, and our two main transition satellites, market-to-market, at over €23 billion, emphasizing the considerable underlying asset value that underpins our company. I want to reaffirm that the dividend is our first priority within the capital framework. The Board will propose a 2026 dividend of €1.10 per share. A 5% increase on 2025 and consistent with our track record of dividend growth. I also confirm that as we develop new material sources of cash flow and as we reduce shares in issue, the cash breakeven of our dividend will reduce. Our average break-even over 2026-2028 is under $50 per barrel and under $35 per barrel over the whole plan. This means that the quality as well as the quantity of the dividend rises, meaning it gets materially more valuable in the hands of our investors. The second component of our shareholder distribution is the share-by-back. our shares in issues have reduced by 17 percent since 2021 as we ensure flexibility in our capital framework share performance and scenario upside in our new plan we will now look to distribute a higher figure of between 35 and 45 percent of our cash flow from operation to reflect the higher weight of our satellite entities up from the previous 35 40 percent range the increase in the payout that we are announcing today acknowledge the changing structure of our cash flow from operation which is made up of both consolidated cash flow and satellites derived free cash flow As a result, the 2026 dividend is complemented by a 1.5 billion euro buyback, bringing the overall payout to 40% of CFFO. Thirdly, we also confirm that we will share cash flow from Operation Upside with shareholders as we have done previously. In the case of higher-than-plan CFFO, up to $90 Brent, we will continue to distribute 60% of incremental cash flow as an extra buyback, as we have done before. But in addition, we are now introducing that in the case of scenarios where the average Brent price for the year exceeds $90 a barrel, the full incremental cash flow above this level will be distributed as an extraordinary dividend. A similar mechanism will apply to gas price and refining margins when they exceed the plan assumption by more than 50%. The assessment of the expected annual scenario and any extraordinary dividend will be made in the third quarter, with a single payment scheduled for the final quarter of the year. For example, assuming $90 Brent and 45-euro megawatt hour TTF, we generate a cash flow from operation over 14 billion euro and as a consequence would more than double our buyback. Over 2023 and 2025 our distribution were equivalent to a total shareholder yield of 11 percent on the average share price. We distributed around 15 billion euro or more than 30 percent of the average market capitalization our market capitalization has also risen 70 percent from january 1st 2023 equating to an analyze the total shareholder return of 26 percent the leader among our peers competitive return to shareholder and capital appreciation are precisely the combination we aim to deliver again over this updated plan. And now I will return the floor back to Claudio for his final remarks.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

Thank you, Francesco. In conclusion, energy markets are changing and they continue to be volatile and unpredictable. Our strategy, however, is consistent. What is clear to us is that there are real opportunities to grow and deliver value. Our strategy and our new plan to 2030 show how any will achieve this. Our track record provides assurance that we will. We will grow our EMP business from what is now an outstanding portfolio project and resources in terms of both depth and quality alongside we are building new real business in the transition providing the low carbon energy our customers demand these businesses are already very material in value and add to the imbalance and diversification of any crucially we have developed the people and the technologies to deliver on these opportunities in both business areas. Nor are we neglecting the longer term, with our co-activities very well placed for the 2030s and beyond, and emerging opportunities such as CCS and Fusion, led by our technological strength being developed. All of this is secured by a high robust financial position, the strongest in our history, designed to fund our projects with a focused capital budget, managing the cycle and the volatility. For our investors, we offer highly visible growth, generating capital appreciation alongside a very attractive distribution. The growth and diversification of our company's cash flow plus our balance sheet strength underpin the secure and growing dividend that is our first priority. It is combined with a shared buyback and now an extraordinary dividend commitment that confirms our disciplined management of capital with the promise confirmed by our previous action to share the cash flow upside. Now, after a brief video, I'm ready to take your question with the rest or any stop management.

Operator

This is the conference operator. Please press star and one for questions and star two to remove your staff from the question queue. I now leave the floor to Mr. John Rigby for the Q&A session.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Q&A session of this year's Capital Markets Update. I'm here in Rome with Claudio and Francesco and the rest of E&I's top team. We're going to move into the Q&A, so normal rules apply. If you can keep the questions to two as a courtesy to everybody, that would be very much appreciated, and we'll try to get round to everybody. You should have time to do that. So with that introduction, let's get to it. And I think the first question in the queue is from Biraj at Royal Bank of Canada. So, Biraj, if you'd like to kick us off. Thanks.

Biraj Borkhataria, Analyst — Royal Bank of Canada

Hi there. Thank you for doing this presentation with everything going on. I appreciate it. First of all, just on the production guidance. Before, you previously used to guide on a reported basis and then the underlying basis. and there was an assumption for farm-downs and portfolio changes, and now you're giving the 3% to 4%. So can you just help me if something changes and you're thinking of how you're going to manage the portfolio and whether that was a fair comparison? And secondly, just on the exploration front, this is clearly your main competitive edge in the upstream, and you've done extremely well over many years and very consistently. Just wanting to give us some context on your plans over the next couple of years and whether you're looking to increase the risk profile of the exploration campaign towards more greenfield away from brownfield, or are there any changes there?

Guido Brusco

Thank you, Biraj. On production, indeed, we are guiding a 3-4% reported to 2030, which is better than what we guided last year, which was 3-4% underlying and 2-3% reported. So there is an upgrade on the guidance. While as far as the exploration risk, we are almost maintaining the same balance between the high impact and ILX near field, lower risk prospects. What we are doing is to continue to focus on the core areas like the North Africa, East Med, West Africa, Southeast Asia. but we are adding some new basins like the South Atlantic margin in South America and the transform margin in the West Africa.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

Just to go back to the production question, and you ask what has changed in respect last year. As you saw, we made different discoveries. We made discoveries in Indonesia and we sanctioned projects that enter in the four-year plan. So there is a different kind of dynamics of 426 because we have also Indonesia and the business combination and we have new projects. So the exploration discoveries and the business combination are the two different points that changed respect last year forecast.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Okay, thank you. Thanks, Baraj. We're going to now move to Josh Stone at UBS.

Joshua Stone, Analyst — UBS

Thanks, and good afternoon, everyone. First question, coming back to the growth profile, because clearly E&I is long resources, and that's now a very significant advantage in this new cycle. But the rate of growth is ultimately choice of spending. And maybe just talk about the factors that led you to decide this 140% average reserve replacement rating and why that's the right number. And also, what actually drove, I don't know if I heard it, but what actually drove the increase of the growth rates up to the 3% to 4%, what's driving that? And then second topic, I mean, just current events and corners, I presume you may have some exposure just through either chartered vessels or otherwise. So I was wondering if you might be able to share your view on how likely you think the straight corners can be reopened in the coming weeks, if that's something you ever need to use on, and also just how you're managing that situation as a result.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Sorry, Josh, you came through a little bit muffled, so I'm going to try and interpret the questions for you, for the panel. So I think the first one is for Guido, and it's about reserve replacement and production growth. The second was about the straight-up hormones.

Guido Brusco

Yeah, just building on what just Claudio said earlier, we had a significant amount of discoveries, and this will turn into reserves over the plan while we are FID projects. And the main country for growth, of course, will be the Southeast Asia with Indonesia, which is remarkable. But also we'll have Argentina, we'll have Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and we'll have Mozambique also. And so, basically, this 140% of reserve replacement is mainly driven by our organic growth, which is driven by the exploration and discoveries.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

So, for the second question about the straits and the wolf and the cargos, I can talk about our position over there. So we have a, I can say, marginal position from a production point of view. We account for between 2% and 3% of our production. And we can say maybe less in terms of cash flow and EBITs at our scenario. We have more development projects than production. So at the moment's situation, you know very well from our point of view that we can say that impact is not so big.

Joshua Stone, Analyst — UBS

I don't know if you can still hear me if the line is any better. But on the first question, just asking where the increase of the growth rate is coming from, so the extra 1%, I don't know if you can answer that. And on the second, if you have any view, actually, if you have any vessels stranded or any chartered vessels, if you have any view on how likely the straits can be reopened, and apologies if you can't still hear me.

Guido Brusco

Just, okay, on the end of, I mean, the growth at the end of the plan is essentially Argentina, while this year, as Claudio pointed out, is essentially the growth coming from the startup ramp-up made in the last year, which are the project in Norway, the ramp-up in Congo and Ivory Coast, and the business combination in Indonesia, clearly.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Perhaps, Josh, I'll come back to you on the logistics question on shipping, etc., if that's okay. What we'd like to do now is move to Michele De La Vigne at Goldman Sachs. Michele, are you on the line?

Michele Della Vigna, Analyst — Goldman Sachs

The first one on the GGP target for this year, I was wondering if perhaps you're not being a little bit too conservative given all of the volatility that we're seeing at the moment and it feels like your portfolio is ideally positioned to capture it. And then secondly, on the growth target, very impressive, top of the group, I was wondering if you could split it between oil and gas. Thank you.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

We'll start with Christian.

Cristian Signoretto

Yeah. So on the target, I think the guidance that we have set is consistent with any scenario which sets TTF at around 36 euros per megawatt hour and takes into consideration, let's say, the situation in the Gulf as we speak on our supply. But clearly, I mean, as, let's say, the time goes by and prices and volatility might, let's say, result in a different scenario, this will actually allow us to take much more opportunities from the market and so to allow to manage better our assets and to get more value out of our asset base.

Guido Brusco

As far as concerned, the production growth, if we take an helicopter view over the plan, we will be almost flat on the liquids, flat on the pipe gas, and all the increase, all the growth, you may have spotted in one of the slides that we will increase 11% our LNG production. So that's in a very nutshell where the growth lies. Very clear. Thank you.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Michele, we're going to now move to Alistair Simon, Citigroup. Al.

Alistair Syme, Analyst — Citigroup

Yeah, thanks, John. I had a couple of questions on slide 21 on the cash flow growth, sort of the $17 billion in 2030. I wonder, I think, Francesco, you made some comment about the cash tax rate. So maybe you could just tell us, you know, sort of what rate we should assume in 2030 versus where it was in 2026. And then secondly, on the next slide, slide 22, you've given all the cash in from the satellites over the period. Maybe just talk a little bit better about how that's phased. Is there more of that, you know, should we just divide that number by four or is there a bit more of it coming in the back end of the profile?

Francesco Gattei, CFO

Yes, about the cash tax rate, first of all, I would like to mention the tax rate first. That is the one that you have seen last year was in the range of 45%. You could expect this keeping a similar range in the coming two years, three years, then dropping because contribution from business combination clearly helped to reduce the tax rate. In terms of cash tax rate, the weight of the tax rate in this case is in the range of 23%. Again, we will have a similar trend. So it's a relatively steady level and then dropping on towards below the 20% versus the end of the plan. About the second question, I missed a bit the concept.

Alistair Syme, Analyst — Citigroup

It was really about the cash in from the satellites. You talk about $16 billion in expected cash in.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

The cash from the satellites. You know that we were accumulating cash last year in the range of $2 billion, above $2 billion through the dividend. And clearly, by expanding the magnitude and the number of satellites, this will grow progressively. And what we expect in the coming years is substantially to double that amount, that contribution along the four-year plan.

Alistair Syme, Analyst — Citigroup

Okay, so assume roughly $4 billion in 2030.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

That is a good proxy, yes. Clearly, in our scenario.

Alistair Syme, Analyst — Citigroup

Sure. Great, thank you.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Al.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

John, the question that I made before on the cargoes in the straits, we can say that we don't have any cargo. So E&I doesn't have any cargo now.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Okay. So hopefully, Josh, that answered your question. We're going to move now to Alessandro Pozzi at Mediabank. Alessandro?

Alessandro Pozzi, Analyst — Mediobanca

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the questions. I have one on chemicals. I was wondering if you can give us perhaps new guidance on the break-even for the division. And the second question on cash flow guidance for 2026. If you can take us through the main moving parts for the 2026 guidance versus 2025.

Speaker 17

Alessandro, you're now speaking. I mean, concerning the chemical scenario compared to the previous one, we have seen some deterioration, particularly for some stagnation in different markets, and also some lack of rebound of demand in addition to a higher cost of feedstock for the chemical industry. So this will have corresponded to two years of delay in our breakeven of EBIT, but we are putting in place additional actions in order to mitigate the one year at this moment and so we expect that the break-even delayed by one year on EBIT side.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

About the comparison between the two years, 25 and 26 cash flow from operation, we have to keep in mind that last year we benefited of a few material one-off factors, mainly in the powers, in GGP, and also in EMP. And this year, actually, we are also having the impact from the second half of the year of the 400 million cash flow from operation that will be the net effect of moving the planet as a dividend contributor instead of cash flow from operation. For this season, for example, we have raised the range in terms of distribution up to 45%. So, overall, this year is actually an improvement, like for like, removing all this one-off factor by around 700 million versus last year.

Joshua Stone, Analyst — UBS

Okay. Thank you.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Alessandro. We're now going to move to Paul Redman at BMP. Paul, if you're online.

Paul Redman, Analyst — BMP

Hi, guys. Thank you very much for your time. Yeah, two questions. First, we're just on ENI Live. So you've included a scenario assumption for refining margins, which essentially fall and then plateau from 2028. Can you give me an update on your view on renewable fuel margins out to 2030 and whether that's different to what you're highlighting in your refining margin scenario? And then secondly, on divestments. So you're guiding to gross capex to 29, net capex to 25 billion. That's $4 billion of divestments is how I read it. And you've got about 2 billion of those coming in 2026. So if I think about the remaining four years, you're not guiding too much in terms of divestment. How do I read that and how you're thinking about your portfolio? Does that just mean you're comfortable with where the portfolio stands, your equity positions in assets, your current equity position in satellites? So yeah, are you happy with your current portfolio and we shouldn't see opportunity for divestment over the next four years?

Speaker 2

Yes, thanks for the question. On biorefinery margin, we see increasing margin along the five years business plan. And this is going to be driven by strong fundamentals. Demand, first of all, is expected to grow significantly above 20 million 2026, above 40 million 2030. And this, again, driven by policy defined and under deployment. I won't touch its single policy, but just to mention the Renewable Energy Directive No. 3, from 14 to 29, already in place. And in the U.S., a target has to be approved soon in terms of increased renewable volume obligation is expected, let's say, in weeks. And it's going to increase by around 40% demand. We are already seeing expectation, market move upon expectation. RIN is already $1.5 per RIN, so pretty much a dollar above the level we reached in previous year, and margin are already significantly increasing. I have to say that on the business plan, it's not just a matter of scenario, but actually we are pulling all value creation levers in order to maximize results. It's capacity a driver, but actually it's also product optionality like SAF. It's fee-stock flexibilization. We are focusing a lot on maximizing the kind of fiscal weekend process to maximize value. And then there's going to be a strong contribution from the agri-production that gives us the unique competitive advantage of being fully integrated along the value chain.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

Yes. About the portfolio, first of all, it is important to mention that this year we described a set of operations that are covering 2 billion as an extra benefit, but actually it does include the benefit of the consolidation of plenitude. That is not a typical M&A, but has a similar effect in terms of the leveraging. So if you add that in terms of net effect for the year, it's more than doubling the amount of 2026. Similarly, the amount over the plan will be almost double if you take into account that. And you have also to consider, as we mentioned here, that we present every year a plan that has a degree of visibility, that is progressively improved year after year as a risked component because we don't want to over-promise. Instead, we prefer to over-deliver. And you have to take into account that through exploration and through portfolio optimization, we continue to generate optionality inside the portfolio. So we are happy with our portfolio, but we are happy also of the optionality that is embedded in that portfolio.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. Thanks, Francesca. Thanks, Paul. We're now going to move to Matt Lofting at JPMorgan. Matt?

Matt Lofting, Analyst — JPMorgan

Thanks, everybody, for taking the questions. Congrats on the update. I think it's very reflective of the strength of strategic execution that E&I has delivered over the last few years. I wanted to just ask you, the 140% reserve replacement metric within the upgraded growth stands out. What are the sort of the key project FIDs or sanctions over the next few years that are required to deliver on that ratio? And whether there's any sort of particular projects that sort of stand out disproportionately from that perspective. And then secondly, it struck me that it was an important point on distributions that you made on the rising quality of the dividend as the cash break-evens fall. How are you thinking around the value proposition of the buybacks as the shares continue to re-rate? And to what extent is the move to 100% extra dividends, over $90, reflective of that balance in terms of value of buyback versus dividend back to shareholders? Thanks.

Guido Brusco

Yeah, so as we've highlighted today, we have the strongest, the largest, deepest, most diverse pipeline of projects in our history. Of course, this outstanding replacement ratio is driven by some super major projects like Argentina LNG, Indonesia, where we have just taken two very important FID, Ivory Coast, Mozambique, Nigeria, Angola, and of course Congo. And just to give you some data points, our proven research life index is about 11 years, but if we include probable and reserves associated to the project under maturation, which we have seen in in one of our slides this reserve life far exceed 20 20 years so it comes from as said before exploration but also our ability to deliver cost competitive project it's not enough just to discover it but you have to then turn into we have to turn the resources into reserves and we have turned more than 60% of our resources into reserves in the past year with an outstanding time to market and also an outstanding delivery on cost. Just recently Voodmec has issued a report where we are among the top leaders. They're the top in the exploration, but the top also in the development of those resources.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

If I can add something about the capability to put in production new projects. It's true, we have been very fast, so we increased the RRR, but also that comes from our exploration strategy. Because our exploration strategy is really to focus our exploration, reducing the risk, where we have facility installations. And that clearly reduced the cost, but also the possibility to go through the replacement ourselves very quickly. So everything starts from the strategy that we applied in exploration in the last more than 10 years. So that is another reason of low cost and the rapidity through which we can get this life index and replacement ratio.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

About the buyback versus the dividend or the scope for the buyback, clearly. We, I think that is almost a few years where we prove that we are keen or able to share any upside with our investors during the year. So we set at the beginning of the year a conservative approach towards distribution, but this is a flaw that is a promises that we recognize immediately and then during the year we execute our plan we improve that we do better for example in in production in in disposal in execution and on the other side there is sometimes improvement of the scenario actually in the last two years didn't happen actually the scenario dropped that during the year and in any case we're able to distribute more and more through an increased share that we dedicated to the buyback with the target of the 60% increase or the increase of distribution percentage. This year, we thought that due to the exceptional condition we are facing in the market, we will be probably in a situation where there is a continuous potential improvement in terms of the magnitude of the buyback, but the possibility to execute a buyback is becoming less and less effective as soon as you are proceeding and becoming bigger. the amount of cash flow that you have to use. Because clearly, from that point of view, there is a limitation in terms of trading per day or share that you could buy. For this reason, we thought that in a scenario that is above the $90 billion, sorry, the $90, we will be able to distribute more. In this case, we thought that a one-off payment that will occur in the fourth quarter, decided in the third quarter, will be a way to execute even that amount of additional distribution. And taking into account of gearing and the overall strength of the company in terms of investment, opportunity, we thought that the one-off dividend, the special dividend, would be the more appropriate solution for sharing that upside.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Francesco. And thank you, Matt. We're going to move to Lydia Rainforth at Barclays. Lydia, if you'd like to ask your question.

Lydia Rainforth, Analyst — Barclays

Thanks, John. And two questions, please. Just coming back to what is an impressive upstream portfolio, you've talked in the slides of the FID schedule slippage being 5% versus the industry average of 15%, the FID cost growth lower as well. Just as you're doing more and more projects, how do you make sure you can keep that discipline? And then the second one is probably more for Francesco and just to help me with my math. Obviously, we're talking about returning 100% of additional cash to shareholders in the form of extraordinary dividends above $90. And I think you talked about that being a €14 billion cash flow for operations bit. But obviously, we do have higher natural gas prices as well at the moment, higher refining margins. So are we thinking that it's basically it's 100% of any additional cash flow over that €14 billion level that gets returned? So even if fuel price is a bit lower, but gas is a bit higher, that's how it should work. Thanks.

Guido Brusco

On how we keep track of this record and discipline, I like this word, discipline on the delivery. Of course, we are building on our track record. We have the skills, we have the competencies. We've said several times that we never laid off people. We always took in-house the core competencies, G&G, engineering, production guys. So we've maintained these competencies. We have an edge on technology. We have an edge on the super high computational computer. We have a hedge also on the geographical diversification. and also the diversification of the production mix, this recently adjunct technology, of course, and it is a consistent track record. In the last 10 years, we've been the second largest in terms of FPSO built, and we're just the second to Petrobras, But if we compare with our peers, we are by far the largest in terms of FPSO and floating LNG. So we are training our organization. We've trained our organization to build these kits all along the year. And what is in front of us is exactly the same. We have to continue to build FPSOs, floating LNG, and do the same and the same.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

No, I think that I really share what we just said. We had to, when you talk about training your company, Aini grew organically. So we grew through our industrial action, our project, and in the last 15 years, we did really differently because we ensource competencies. We increase technology, we invest in R&D, and we invest in our capability to grow organically. Clearly, we have exploration, but we have also the development. And that is why, in the last, I think, 10 years, from a time-to-market point of view and the number of projects, we are the first in the industry, also considering that maybe others grow in one country. We are growing in at least six different countries. We have aspiration and big success in aspiration in at least six, seven countries. So that is, I think, that in EMP, we made clear choices some times ago, at least 15 years ago. And now we are consistent. We don't change. And that is one of the reasons why we are sure that we can keep going with this kind of trend and positive results.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

About the buyback versus the extra dividend in terms of scenario, we not limited, as we said, as we said also during the presentation, the $90 is a trigger for the extra dividend, but potentially you could have a scenario where the average is 88, but on the other side you have a gas price or a refining margin that is much higher. Even in that case, we will distribute that excess cash flow, 100%, as extra dividend. Just to give you a ratio, it's substantially 50% above the current assumption in gas and the CERM. It means $9 as a refining margin and around 54 euro for megawatt hour for gas. These are the two equivalent numbers for the $90 brand.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Thanks, Lydia. Actually, just to add to what Claudio and Guido said, is there is a nice stat in the slide pack that we got out of them that 90% of all the future production under development is either operated by Eni or one of Eni's affiliates. So the control over the pace of growth is very much in our own hands. I think it's fair to say. So thank you, Lydia, for that. And we're going to move to Mark Wilson at Jefferies. Mark.

Mark Wilson, Analyst — Jefferies

All right. Thank you very much. On the growth to 2030 in the plan, the increased growth LNG led. Could I ask firstly, is or are both Argentina FLNG vessels included in that target? And I also know there has been talk in various publications of a third Mozambique FLNG vessel. I'm just wondering if that is a potential, maybe not for 2030, but very close to it. That would be my first question. And if I'm allowed a second one, it would be about the Thera business combination. I thought you said in the presentation this included all of Petronas production in Malaysia. I'm just checking if that is the case.

Guido Brusco

And also, if you could speak to just, I think, how precedented it is for such a satellite set up with an experienced NOC like Petronas if you could comment to that and how the management of that business will be set up thank you On the growth mainly LNG driven I'll give you just a view on the upstream component and then I'll leave to Christian to elaborate a bit more on the commercial and the midstream part so you rightly spotted is Argentina will play a role in the plan, but most of the Argentina growth and ramp-up will be beyond the plan. So we have other projects. We have Mozambique. We still have the ramp-up in Congo and a few more other projects that will drive this growth up to 2030. But, of course, the Indonesian one, clearly. but the Argentina contribution will be largely beyond the 2030.

Cristian Signoretto

Yeah, on the LNG portfolio, the one that we are going to bring to market, as you can imagine, the big share of the growth is underpinned by our upstream projects, I mean, notably the Argentina, Cyprus, Mozambique, where we have Indonesia as well, So where we have an approach which is mostly like equity-lifting production. It depends on the country, but I mean, let's say our share of production is then being taken in our portfolio to be then further marketed. And so we plan to have a 70% ratio in terms of equity LNG production into our overall contracted portfolio, which we expect to exceed the 20 million ton by 2030.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

And just remind me, Mark, the question on CIRA.

Mark Wilson, Analyst — Jefferies

Yes, I just wanted to comment on just how precedented or unprecedented it would be for an experienced NOC like Petronas to set up a satellite yourself like this with ENI. and just how much of that Malaysian production that Petronas runs is going into it.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

So why are Petronas so experienced, so good, join any? That is the question. I think because they consider that we are good and they consider that in Indonesia we discover a huge, huge amount of resources. As you know, the EMP satellites is based on two important elements and components. One is cash flow and then growth, so the future. That was the reason. I think that is a good marriage because they have the cash flow now. We have the cash flow as well in Indonesia, but we have the growth component. That is the reason. And then we are good partners. And we consider Petronas one of the best companies. So that created, in the last one half year, a good combination. We discussed, we analyzed, we operate our asset, they operate the asset, we are together, we consolidate, and we have a really strong future in front of us.

Guido Brusco

On numbers, I'll shed a bit more lights on the... Of course, we will include in the business combination all our E&I assets in Indonesia on production and assets and blocks in exploration, barring the 10% mentioned by Francesco that will be monetized and 10% of our production assets in Indonesia. While in Malaysia, we have five assets, two of which in Sarawak, which accounts for almost 70-75% of the total production which will be contributed by Petronas, which is 230,000 barrel per day, while the remaining 25% comes from three assets in the peninsula.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

And I think we can probably help you with some modeling offline as well if you want to contact the team. So we're going to move now to, and thank you, Mark, we're going to move now to Massimo Bonasoli at Equitar. Massimo, do you want?

Massimo Bonacina, Analyst — Equita

Thank you, John, and good afternoon. I have two questions. One on the capex budget over the plan period. gross capex is guided at 5.8 billion average per year so more than 2 billion lower than the previous plan driven by effects changing perimeter and efficiencies if i got correctly can you detail the key drivers of the structural efficiency measures in capex the second question is on venezuela what is the realistic pathway on monetizing gas resources there like perla and can you provide more detail on the timing and magnitude of potential cash recovery from venezuela

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

thank you okay just a few words about what you said about efficiency as i said before this kind of efficiency comes from our strategy and our model as I said before so we are organic we discover and then we are we have at the end of the day less capex why because we are using existing capex when we talk about okay Indonesia is the case but also Congress another case in Indonesia we have just to develop the upstream because the LNG is there so for Congo I think we can consider the development then we have all the facilities closed, we are in mature areas so I think that is true also in Nigeria or Egypt so the capability to reduce CAPEX is because of the strategy that we define at the very top So at the upstream, that is operation, with a very strategic view, we reduce not just risk, but we reduce also CAPEX if we are so lucky to discover some reserves. So that is the main reason. And now we are entering, because that is something that we discovered in the last 10 years, we are entering the development of all these resources. So now we can see a very strong efficiency in all our CAPEX profiles.

Guido Brusco

On Venezuela, I mean, you mentioned gas opportunity. Of course, recently we have signed an agreement to continue production of gas in a sustainable manner in the country, which includes also opportunity to export some of this gas or a consistent part of this gas. We shall always remember that Perla is a giant reservoir, and we are just producing a little portion of it. So there's a big room to improve. And equally, on the oil component, both the last general license, the 50, and the new hydrocarbon law provides for opportunity and room to increase also the oil activity in Venezuela. So we have a positive view of the country. Mood has changed and more will come, for sure.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Massimo. We're going to move now to Chris Kupland at Bank of America.

Chris Kuplent, Analyst — Bank of America

Yeah, thank you very much for taking my questions. One more follow-up, if I may, on CIRA. What's still pending from here to closing in terms of equity participation? I assume that that's been dealt with. Are you still potentially including a cash component before closing? So interested to hear what we're still waiting for. And then a more generic question, Looking at your commodity price deck underlying your 2030 outlook, 85 Brent, $9, European gas prices, what do you think will prove to be most bearish? Anyone who would like to take that, happy to have a conversation, please. Thank you.

Guido Brusco

I will take the easy part of the question, which is on Syria. What is missing? So, first of all, no money transaction here. What is outstanding? We've just obtained the antitrust clearance, and we're awaiting the customary approvals, which essentially are the approvals of the two governments, of Malaysia and Indonesia, while we are progressing the financing plan to self-fund the joint venture, which we expect, because of the resource base, because of the strength of the two shareholders and the quality of the asset, to be an investor grade.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

I think he's going to try the macro.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

No, yeah, I think that it's very difficult because you don't know what's going on and how long it will last. So, which kind of damages? Every day we wake up and there is news that is deepening the complexity and the long-term effect of the crisis. Clearly, looking at what was discussed today or presented today, on the gas, sure, we are expecting much tighter condition than it was supposed. We had the reference by the Qatari about the potential, let's say, stop for a few years of certain trains of LNG. On the products, you know that there is a relevant tightness, and on products there is more difficulties to have massive stocks to protect from the fluctuation of the prices. While on the oil, on oil, yes, oil is impacted, but for a while there could be some buffer through the strategic stock. So if we would like to rank between these three, gas, products, and oil as a potential list. But this is changing every day, so take these words as they are just for this second.

Chris Kuplent, Analyst — Bank of America

Thank you very much, Francesco. I appreciate the answer. And I'll call you up separately to hear what price forecasts you might give us in certain scenarios.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you. Thanks, Chris. I think just methodologically, I'll speak for us all here, is clearly we were in a very volatile environment. So I think the message we wanted to get across was the strategic direction of travel is unchanged. The downside is protected by a resilient financial framework and I think as Francesco has talked about the upside is captured and then delivered back to our shareholders I think that would be the way we would think about it.

Claudio Descalzi, CEO

If I can add something John if we look at our asset we said during the presentation any never been so strong never been so strong in term of asset the right asset in the right country and all the different diversification that we have, technology, diversification, geography, and the new transition company. So it hasn't changed. So we are growing everywhere. Clearly, A&P is driving this growth, but we've never been so strong. And we have to consider that after 2030, we have a really, really strong growth based on the asset and project that we are, for which we are. Taking the FID, and we are developing already in pre-FID. So it's really robust, mature, and it's in our end for, as you said, for the 90% in terms of operating assets. So that, I think, that is a very strong point. Clearly, the remuneration is an absolutely strong point. I think that we are so strong, we are so strong that we decide for a price of $90 to deliver dividend, 100% of what we take above $90. It's the first time, but it's a clear signal of our consistency for our dividend policy and remuneration. I think that is a very strong point that I like to highlight at this point because we've never been so strong.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

Great. I appreciate that. Thanks, Chris. Supplemented your question there. We're going to move on to the last two questions. So the second to last question is Alessandro Vigil at Santander. So Alex, if you're there, if you could ask the question.

Alessandro Vigilante, Analyst — Santander

Yes, thank you very much for taking my questions and congratulations for the targets. The first question will be about the Enelife 26 target of 1.1 billion EBITDA. Looks like a conservative number, looking at the strength, we are seeing in renewable products margins in this beginning of the year. And the second question would be about the plenitude and the 15 gigawatts capacity target by 2030. What kind of returns and competitive environment are you finding these days in this market? Just to see the value creation potential of this capex.

Speaker 2

Yes, on biofuel, that's the target, considering current scenario on the budget clearly current situation is providing extra room to overtake it given that the even current situation is supportive for biofuel scenario as well even let's say the relative price towards the high fossil prices is supportive in that direction so this is a point second point we are in this month actually in a turn around the phase on And then it's a biorefinery where we are upgrading current settings. So nowadays, results are driven by the, let's say, Jela biorefinery and the U.S. one. So among the three key pillars, one, it's going to be partially under transformation in order to bring extra performance after the end of this transformation. These are the two underlying reasons.

Speaker 6

Thank you, Alexandre, for your question. First of all, Plenitude model, you know, is integrating renewal with the retail activity and 70 percent of our project lies in country which we can exploit this this model like spain italy france and greece for instance and the remaining 30 percent is in country which we can with the employee uh technical advantage acknowledgement and uh of course some market advantages uh if you look at the at the project we we foresee a in the long run in medium long term an internal rate of return between uh seven eight percent on the project itself that can be uplifted by the integration model with the retail activity and also now also applying the the leverage model so levered return increase of another 1.2 percent thank you thanks stefano

Bertrand Le Duc, Analyst — Kepler Cheuvreux

we're going to go to our final question now which is uh betran rudy at kepler so betran please yes uh good afternoon thank you for uh taking my question i have a um i was looking at your um New sensitivities disclosed for 2026, both for oil and gas, and maybe you can explain why, because you're still growing, that both sensitivities are going down, both for oil and for gas. So for a $10 move in oil price, the sensitivity goes down from $1.4 billion to $1.1 billion this year. And in gas, it's the same order of magnitude. Sensitivity goes down for a $10 per MBTU move from a $1 billion euro cash flow impact to $0.8 billion. So, it's a bit technical, but can you give us a clue because it is a satellite model and a dividend frame or other portfolio mix that gives us this outcome? And then we'll have a second question on Mozambique.

Francesco Gattei, CFO

Yes. First of all, on this question that is technical but is quite effective, We design a sensitivity on a broader range of variation of prices. So it is a reported $1, but it's not $1. It's $1 calculated, assuming $10, $20 range. So you have to consider that sensitivity generally, and we mention every time, works for a limited variation of prices. Because in the contract mechanism, particularly PSA, there are natural regressive effects if the prices spike because cost recovery is absorbed fastly and therefore there is less contribution. First, this is the first element. The second element, so once you read this, you have to consider this assuming more than $10 or up to $20 of change. Otherwise, I will give you a $1 reference and you multiply it for $20. You say, why? You are losing the cash flow. No, because the cash flow never exists in reality at $20. The second element, as you currently spot, is the fact that if you have a satellite, satellites protect you with their balance sheet in terms of through their distribution policy, but on the other side, they decide their distribution policy on the basis of their own boards and decisions. Therefore, there is some kind of inertia in evolution. So it's not a direct impact of prices towards a dividend automatically as it could be in a normal free cash flow element. For this reason, there is a third element that is a partial difference in terms of foreign exchange that is impacting comparison versus a steer. But for these two main reasons, you don't see exactly the same number. Sensitivity will change every year by definition. In this case, we would like to give you the most appropriate factor to calculate what will be the effect of a scenario that has a larger volatility factor embedded.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

And Guido, Mozambique.

Bertrand Le Duc, Analyst — Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah, but just a remark. The footnote on slide 28 is pointing that the variation is based on $10 and change from $25. But maybe it's just a small remark. And then on Mozambique, on Rovuma LNG, Accent said it was targeting NFID this year. There's been some change in stakeholders on Coral, with Coral Norte, with ENI owning now 50%. and the Excel not participating, should we still assume that on Rovuma LNG, if it is FID, you will have a 25% stake?

Guido Brusco

Of course, we have a stake in all the assets. We made an arrangement, which we disclosed in the last years, years where we find a pragmatic way to move projects ahead. So you have spotted that on Coral Nord we took a stake of 50% while ExxonMobil is not present. But this is just the pragmatism to move project forward. We were very convinced as we proved that floating LNG is a technology that can deliver both operational and financial results. And so Exxon is continuing to progress, of course, the engineering activity to make an FID on Rovuma. What I want to clarify is that Mozambique has vast resources, and so there are opportunities for both the projects. The two projects are not in competition. the floating LNG, which is mainly focused on the non-straddling resources, and the onshore project, which is focused on the straddling resources, trying also to make optimization with Area 1 project.

Jonathon Rigby, Head of Investor Relations

I think at that point, thanks, Bertrand. I think at that point we are going to close the Q&A session. so to thank everybody for their attention and for their interesting questions I think the team will look forward to seeing many of you in person over the coming weeks and discuss the strategy in more detail any questions or follow-ups please don't hesitate to call me or any one of the team and we'd be delighted to try and help you out in any way we can so with that thank you very much and good afternoon