Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp. Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call

Welcome to OET’s First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Presentation. We will begin shortly. Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO; and Iraklis Sbarounis, CFO of Okeanis Eco Tankers, will take you through the presentation. They will be pleased to address any questions raised at the end of the call, by the webcast. I would like to advise you that this session is being recorded. Iraklis will begin the presentation now.

Thank you. Welcome to the presentation of Okeanis Eco Tankers’ results for the first quarter of 2025. We will discuss matters that are forward-looking in nature, and actual results may differ from the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements. Please read through the relevant disclaimer on Slide 2. Starting on Slide 4 and the executive summary, I am pleased to present the highlights of the first quarter of 2025. We achieved a fleetwide time-charter equivalent of about $38,500 per vessel per day. Our VLCCs were at $38,000, and our Suezmaxes at $39,200. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $32.5 million, adjusted net profit of $11.4 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.36. Continuing to deliver on our commitment to distribute value to our shareholders, our board declared a 12th consecutive distribution in the form of a dividend of $0.32 per share. Total distributions over the last four quarters stood at $2.22 per share, or 91% of our earnings for the period. In Slide 5, we show the detail of our income statement for the quarter. TCE revenue stood at $48.6 million, EBITDA was $23.5 million, and reported net income was $12.6 million, or $0.39 per share. Moving on to Slide 6, and our balance sheet, we entered the quarter with $43 million of cash. Our balance sheet debt continues to amortize by approximately $12 million every quarter, now standing at $634 million as of quarter-end. Our book leverage stands at 59% while our market adjusted net LTV is around 40%. On Slide 7, we recap our main driver behind our operational and commercial success, and one of our key competitive advantages, our fleet. Our 14 vessels have an average age of 5.6 years, that is the youngest crude oil tanker fleet amongst listed peers, and the only pure eco and fully scrubber fitted fleet. This gives us an advantage, allowing us to set a benchmark about the spot market established by conventional mixed fleets. All our vessels are built at first-class yards in Korea and Japan, making us resilient to risks around implementation of the USTR policies. We are also pleased to have behind us an extensive VLCC drydock program from last year. And in 2025, we only had two Suezmax drydocks expected to take place, likely within Q3. Slide 8, moving on to our capital structure. After our refinancing cycle in 2023 and ‘24, we are already reaping the benefits of improved pricing. Our interest expense for the quarter has decreased meaningfully. And, this does not take into account the most recent financings announced, which will take effect in Q2 and Q3 of this year. We have successfully set a robust balance sheet. We added flexibility and extended maturity. That flexibility came in handy in April when we declared the purchase options to buy back our three Chinese fleet vessels, the Nissos Anafi, Nissos Nikouria, and Nissos Kea. We are paying no penalties for the exercise of these options, as we have dropped this when we amended the lease a year and a half ago. The Nikouria and the Kea are expected to be delivered back to us in early and late June respectively, while the Anafi in early August. We have already announced our plans to finance the Nikouria and the Anafi by a new $130 million bank loan with a Greek bank, priced at 140 basis points over SOFR, maturity in seven years with a competitive amortization profile. We are actively working on firming up the financing for the Kea. I expect we will be in a position to announce this later in the quarter. And we are targeting terms that are at least in line with the other two. The terms achieved make us very optimistic in anticipation of the two refinancings of the Nissos Rhenia and the Nissos Despotiko next year, a great opportunity for further improving our breakeven cost. The financing market remains very competitive. The capital structure of the company is very stable. The time to market outlook is positive. All this combined with the strong relationship with financiers, both existing and new ones, brings us great opportunities. I will now pass on the presentation to Aristidis for a commercial market update.

Thank you, Iraklis. In the first quarter, we saw a steady improvement, with market fundamentals better than in the fourth quarter. Key factors driving this included increased sanctions on the shadow fleet and U.S. efforts to reduce Chinese imports of Iranian oil, alongside local factors like Kazakhstan boosting their production. This crude typically goes to Europe, but due to high volumes and the European maintenance season, some had to be redirected to the East, leading to a tight Suezmax fleet and stronger Suezmax rates. In Q1, our fleetwide time charter equivalent reached $38,500 per day, and we achieved 100% utilization. VLCCs earned $38,000, while Suezmax earned $39,200 per day. Looking ahead to Q2, the market has risen further. OPEC+ surprised many by accelerating the unwinding of their cuts, which we expect to continue at a similar pace, faster than planned. This, along with ongoing focus on Iranian exports, supports an already robust market. VLCCs have seen significant improvements, and their rates have been on the rise throughout the quarter. We continue to optimize our VLCC trade by triangulating routes and taking advantage of favorable earnings when market conditions allow. This week, VLCCs are recovering from recent lows in the spot market, which we see as an encouraging sign, especially as it is the highest low point of the year. While Suezmax rates dipped recently, they are also stabilizing and slowly increasing. Our Q2 guidance indicates we are targeting 72% of VLCC spot days at $46,700 per day and 64% of Suezmax spot days at $60,600 per day. We are consistently outperforming the market due to our strong fleet and chartering capabilities. The difference becomes even more noticeable as the market strengthens, allowing us to leverage our nimble fleet for tactical advantages—a benefit that larger companies with more ships often do not have. Regarding fleet development, it's essential to note that age isn't the only factor; the shadow fleet's integration hurdles in any potential peace deals, particularly with Ukraine and Iran, are significant. We anticipate low utilization and increasing challenges for this segment. Examining the age profile again, we previously highlighted that a significant portion of the VLCC fleet will be over 20 years old by 2028, coinciding with the timeframe for new deliveries if orders are placed now. The supply tightening is just one aspect; the oil market fundamentals are also shifting. In recent years, we've observed tighter balances and lower inventories. We anticipate a potential slight inventory build or stable market due to OPEC's quicker-than-expected production increases and growth from non-OPEC sources. Geopolitical uncertainties will continue to influence the near to medium-term outlook, particularly affecting trade flows and sanctions. The long-term perspective remains positive, with demand expected to grow, particularly in emerging markets like India. There is also potential for strategic stockpiling, aided by lower prices and favorable conditions, as well as the need to refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This potential surplus will likely be cleared through long-haul voyages, further increasing tonne-mile demand, which is favorable for tankers. As OPEC adds barrels back into the market unexpectedly, we've seen 800,000 barrels per day return during May and June, with production expected to ramp up towards 2.2 million barrels later in the year. Concurrently, non-OPEC producers are expected to increase their output significantly, contributing to long-haul demand and supporting VLCC utilization. Current utilization levels for VLCCs are approaching 90%, and with expected increases in Middle Eastern volumes over the summer, this could rise even more. The last time utilization was at this level, VLCC rates were around $70,000. Meanwhile, the aging shadow fleet and the insufficient growth of the mainstream fleet create a favorable scenario for rate increases. Another key consideration this quarter is Iran, which remains unpredictable. Recent developments have been intriguing, and one scenario not widely considered is the potential impact of a deal with Iran, which would normalize theirexports. Such a deal would likely require compliant vessels rather than the shadow fleet, benefiting the normal fleet. Iran is currently exporting over 1.5 million barrels, and we anticipate that a potential deal could lead to higher demands for their crude, translating into additional positive impacts for the VLCC trade. Furthermore, we believe there will be a significant need for Iran to modernize its aging fleet, which could support asset values for modern vessels, especially VLCCs and Suezmax. However, if the deal does not materialize and stronger secondary sanctions are imposed, particularly against Chinese refiners, it could hinder Iranian exports due to logistical challenges, indirectly boosting VLCC employment. Regardless of whether the scenario leads to a maximum pressure situation or a deal, we believe the current status quo is less likely. Thank you for your attention, and we look forward to answering any questions.

Thank you. If this continues, it could limit Iran's ability to export to China due to logistical problems. Again, that would boost VLCC employment. This new scenario is interesting. I think either a maximum pressure scenario or a deal scenario are the most likely. Ignoring the Iranian problem and the status quo remaining seems the least likely. That's all from me. Thank you for listening to our Q1 presentation, and we're happy to answer any questions.

We already have a few questions coming in. Let me organize this. The first one is from Liam Burke at B. Riley. He has three questions, and the first one is regarding VLCC. Do you expect the same terms on the refinancing of the third VLCC out of sailing leasebacks? Yes, we are actively working on securing the financing for the Kea. I expect it to be in similar, if not better, terms than the ones we have announced. Again, this is unclear. A couple of other questions are whether Suezmax rates are benefiting from the increase in non-OPEC+ crude production.

Hi, Liam, thanks for the question. I think that the main driver of the Suezmax rates, which we touched upon, was that the Kazakhstanis have been previously cheating on their OPEC+ production, but currently, I guess, are producing it within their guidelines. But this increased production of Kazakhstani crude, which usually sells into Europe, was able to be arbitraged into Asia. This happened, especially in February and March and a little bit of April. You saw many Suezmax vessels taking this CPC crude that sold into Europe and taking it much further to Asia. Because the Suez Canal is still closed for this trade, Suezmax vessels had to sail from the Black Sea through the Mediterranean around Africa and to Asia. So, it really stretched tonne-mile demand as opposed to the similar voyage that was going to Italy or France. This displaced many ships. I think that was one of the main reasons why Suezmax had a significant jump late in Q1 and early in Q2. I think the OPEC+ increasing production quickly and dropping the OSPs distorted a bit these arbitrages. Currently, this arbitrage from the Kazakhstani crude to go east is closed. But I think that once the local pricing of different crudes balances out, we'll see that crude again and see more ships going that way. So, that will be supportive on tonne-mile demand.

One more follow-up from Liam, although rates were lower year-over-year, they still remain elevated. Understanding geopolitics remains a risk. How do you see the rate environment for the balance of 2025?

Overall, we're optimistic about the balance of 2025. I think that we've seen the markets slowly beginning to heat up, and we're going towards a stronger market. I consider that quite a likely outcome. You can see from our fleet that we remain 100% spot focused. We think there's potential for us to capture more upside and we're waiting to do it, hopefully, in the second half of this year.

We have one more question from Bendik Nyttingnes from Clarksons. So, besides the management of geopolitical risk, there is quite a meaningful reduction in margin on the new financing. Are there other facilities where you can refinance at this term without penalties? Are these the kind of terms we should expect for the Ocean Yield refinancings as well? To answer simply, other than the two, the Rhenia and the Despotiko, we have no penalties to refinance any of our other vessels earlier. So, these two vessels, the purchase options, kick in about a year from now. What we see today with the current financing encourages us that what we can achieve is very, very meaningful regarding the Ocean Yield refinances as well. If we were to do those transactions today, I would expect that we should be in a position to achieve similar rates. We have another question from Fredrik Dybwad at Fearnley. What would you like to see happen in the term market for you to consider TC coverage?

Hi, Fredrik. Thank you for your question. I think that TC coverage at the moment is generally at relatively good levels. There is demand for both shorter and longer term TC exposure from the charters. For us, we still think that asset values and expectations of spot earnings are quite a bit higher and that the TC rates need to move up to cover that gap. I do think we'll get there. There will be opportunities for owners to put on some TC coverage at attractive rates once charters can really make a strong profit on that first voyage. That’s generally a good driver for long-term TCs, one to three-year TC business where the first voyage can really be profitable. From the charters' perspective, this decreases the risk for the balance of the TC period. I think we’re quite a bit closer to what we find interesting, but there’s still a gap at the moment.

I think we have time for one more. Petter Haugen from ABG. There are reports of stronger prices for older tankers around selling a 2007 built at $48 million to 50 million. In the case of an Iran deal; a, what should we expect for this market; and b, how would that impact newer tonnage?

Hi, Petter. Thank you for the question. There has been a transition where, towards the end of last year, values for the older side vessels appeared to have plateaued for the VLCC size and segment. As this year has progressed, with the sanctions placed by the previous administration on various Iranian-affiliated shipping companies and ships, we have seen a strong bid for older tonnage, and this price has moved up significantly. We continue to think that this has more upside as the Iranian fleet is limited by sanctions and their ability to trade effectively. In the case of the Iranian deal, the real upside is for newer vessels. When you're in a compliance business, you need to adhere to all the different rules and regulations. The value of having efficient eco tonnage, potentially with scrubber systems, will be much greater. These are strategic national reinvestments for the Iranian national tanker fleet. The large upside would be on younger tonnage. There is already quite a bit of interest in younger VLCC tonnage. Creating strong and immediate demand like this could really elevate prices to the levels we have always suggested they would reach.

Okay. I think that covers it for today. We look forward to touching base again in August. Thank you.

Thank you everyone for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.