Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good morning, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss third quarter 2025 earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the company, as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

Thank you, Libby. Good morning. Before we dive into our third quarter results, I want to take a moment to recognize the upcoming retirement of Tony Chovanec. Tony has been more than a colleague. He's been a dear friend and a guiding force at Enterprise for nearly two decades. His leadership in building our Fundamentals and Supply Appraisal team helped steer Enterprise through the shale revolution and set the standard across the industry. We wish him all the best in the next chapter and thank him for his invaluable contributions. Tony will be with us through the start of next year, but we wanted to make sure we had an opportunity to congratulate him on an incredible career on this call. Today, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion for the third quarter, generating $1.8 billion of distributable cash flow, providing 1.5x coverage. Additionally, we retained $635 million of DCF. When I look at the third quarter results, I'm reminded of the long-anticipated projects we're commissioning in the fourth quarter. Third quarter results were lighter than expected, but far from discouraging as we look ahead to year-end and into 2026. After a three-month delay, Frac 14 is now in service and will contribute to our results going forward. The Bahia pipeline and Seminole pipeline conversion will come online in tandem, adding capacity to our NGL pipeline system and returning capacity and flexibility to our crude oil pipelines. We originally planned for these projects to be completed around midyear, but we look forward to completing them in the remaining months of 2025 and what they'll deliver. Our PDH plants are looking up with PDH 1 averaging 95% of nameplate, and PDH 2 showing similar promise as it resumes operations following a third quarter turnaround to address coking in the fourth reactor, an issue the technology licensor has committed at the highest levels to resolve. If you add all that up, I see a lot of upside that was pushed out of the third quarter.

Jim, I really appreciate those kind words and all you all here around the table. I really appreciate you all. People on the call, the analyst community, our producers, our customers around the world. I'm forever grateful for the interest and respect that you've always shown in our fundamentals and our supply appraisal work, sincerely. Jim, I want to thank you for years ago when we sat down at your table, recognizing early on that we had something that we now know is the shale revolution. And as you put it, you had a bunch of reports on the table in front of you, and you told me something is different this time and gave me the chance to establish a Fundamentals team that I've been so honored and frankly humbled to be part of, and I really mean that. I guess last but not least, Corey Johnson, the Data Science team that what you all have taught me over the last four years, I'll take with me the rest of my life. So thanks to everyone.

Yes, I'm about to crack, Tony. Now the results. The Bahia pipeline and Seminole pipeline conversion will come online in tandem, adding capacity to our NGL pipeline system and returning capacity and flexibility to our crude oil pipelines. We've never been more confident in the team we have in place today. With the Neches River terminal set to be completed next year, we're nearing the end of a multiyear, multibillion-dollar capital deployment cycle that began in 2022. These strategic investments, including pipelines, marine terminals and key acquisitions puts us in a great position to capitalize on long-term growth from the Haynesville and Permian Basins. Finally, I'm sure Randy is going to hit this, but I enjoy stealing his thunder from time to time, to say this morning, we announced a $3 billion increase to our buyback program, taking it from $2 billion to $5 billion. While we see plenty of opportunities to efficiently expand our footprint in the future, we are also well positioned to continue our strong track record of returning capital to our unitholders. Growing distributions will continue to be our primary focus, but this expanded program enhances our flexibility to grow buybacks alongside rising free cash flow.

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Starting off with the income statement. Net income attributable to common unitholders was $1.3 billion or $0.61 per common unit on a fully diluted basis for the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted cash flow from operations, which is cash flow from operating activities before changes in working capital was $2.1 billion for the third quarter of 2025. We declared a distribution of $0.545 per common unit for the third quarter of 2025, which is a 3.8% increase over the distribution declared for the third quarter of 2024. The distribution will be paid November 14 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business, October 31. In the third quarter, the partnership purchased approximately 2.5 million common units under its buyback program for $80 million. Total repurchases for the first nine months of 2025 were $250 million or approximately 8 million enterprise common units, bringing total purchases under our buyback program to approximately $1.4 billion. In addition to buybacks, our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan purchased a combined 3.5 million common units on the open market for $114 million during the first nine months of 2025, including 1.2 million common units on the open market for $37 million in the third quarter. For the 12 months ending September 30, 2025, Enterprise paid out approximately $4.7 billion in distributions to limited partners. Combined with the $313 million of common unit repurchases over the same period, Enterprise return total capital was $5 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 58%. As Jim mentioned earlier, we expect an inflection point in discretionary free cash flow in 2026 as we have completed a four-year period of large investments, both organic and acquisitions that enhanced our integrated footprint in the Permian and Haynesville basins and our premier wellhead to market businesses serving domestic as well as international markets via our marine terminals.

Thank you, Randy. Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.

So there are lots of Permian gas pipelines coming on next year in the basin. Do you think that's going to drive producers to produce more gas at the margin? And do you consider that to be a constraint?

The Permian Basin is primarily an oil basin and will always remain one. The addition of more gas pipelines and transportation options for NGLs and natural gas benefits the producers, which in turn is beneficial for the basin. That's essentially our perspective.

That makes sense. And then I think I have one more for you, Tony. I think I know what you're going to say, but as LPG exports ramp, I've gotten this question a lot from people, but do you see Asia's residential and petrochemical demand as sort of an unlimited sink for all that LPG? Or is there going to potentially require extreme price pressure on global propane to make it flow?

Jean Ann, I'm going to pass that one to Tug because he travels the world, he and his team. If that's okay, Tug, can I do that?

Yes, this is Tug. Yes, in short, I would say both residential demand is growing internationally and petrochemical due to lightening of the petrochemical feed slate. But the growth is really tied to supply. The U.S. will export what's needed to balance the market and price will ultimately adjust upon that global demand. So we're not necessarily worried about demand.

Jean Ann, this is Jim. I've got a fundamental that I always believed in. Price creates supply and price creates demand. We're not going to have an issue with demand.

Jean Ann, while you're still on the line, I guess I sort of have one for you. You and I have always been in the industry sort of obsessed with this molecule called ethane, as you know. And we haven't always been on the same side of the ledger relative to this molecule, which now, again, just looking back, has become very important and will become more important. I remember in 2018 at our Analyst meeting, I was on crutches and just after we were at the Museum of Natural Science and sitting on the sidelines, and you came and sat down next to me and you said, 'I want to sit next to the only ethane there besides myself in the industry.' Do you remember that?

I do. I remember that, Tony.

We are on track to reach 1 million barrels a day in ethane exports, which the industry can clearly see. Additionally, we still have 600,000 to 800,000 barrels a day that are being rejected.

I'd also like to congratulate Tony on his retirement and thank him for his insights and help over the many years. We wish you the best, Tony. Going to the capital allocation side of things. On the upsized buyback authorization, would you all talk about or just provide more details on the capital allocation outlook for the next couple of years? What do you see at this point as a steady-state run rate for CapEx? And do you expect to buy back stock on a more ratable basis given the visibility in free cash flow growth? Or will it be more opportunistic and dependent on market dynamics?

Okay, Theresa, this is Randy. Yes, I think when we think about the next two or three years on organic growth CapEx, we do see it in the $2 billion to $2.5 billion range. Next year, we see really $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion. Could next year get to $2.6 billion or $2.7 billion? It could. But we don't see it going to $3 billion. And as a result, we'll have free cash flow to deploy. At this point, we will split it between buybacks and debt paydown. I think because we're leaning in a little bit more on buybacks than what we've done over the last two or three years, there could be an element of programmatic buybacks in there as well as a component of debt paydown.

Understood. And with DINO's announced plans yesterday to potentially move up to 150,000 barrels per day of refined products, primarily from its own refineries from PADD 4 to PADD 5, could this lead to better utilization and/or marketing opportunities on your Texas Western product system that recently went into service and ramped? How do you see this evolving?

Yes, Theresa, this is Justin. Clearly, a lot of headlines out there with respect to people reacting to the ongoing closures and potential future closures in California. There’s a lot to unpack with respect to the projects out there. One is we run a unique corridor direct to Salt Lake. To the extent that Salt Lake gets net shorter as a result of these projects, then we're going to stand to be the beneficiary.

I also wanted to wish congratulations to Tony. We've really enjoyed working with you. So congrats. I wanted to ask kind of a macro question, I guess. So you're signaling here an inflection point. You've completed a big capital build-out phase and now you're pivoting to some more cash return to shareholders. How much of this is just your view that the macro is less constructive with oil prices lower, drilling slowing, et cetera? Or is it just a function that you think your system is built out, you're still expecting that growth, but you just have ample capacity?

Yes, Michael, I think it's a function of large projects. If you look at our history, we have had some large capital-intensive projects. Our CapEx has flexed up and then come back into a normal mid-cycle range. And I think that's where we are. Probably the most recent cycle of that was in 2015, '16, where we built the Morgan's Point ethane export facility and the Midland-to-ECCO I system. That was a period of elevated CapEx, and now we’re coming back down to a $2.5 billion range until we see the next large capital project.

Okay. That makes sense. And then on the buyback, I wanted to ask how you're going to balance the potential increase in buybacks with any tax ramifications for your unitholders? And does that create any kind of limit to the amount of buybacks you can do in any given year because of taxes?

Really, the tax ramifications are really for those selling unitholders, not for the unitholders that remain. Did I answer your question, Michael?

Tony, I'm going to make sure we get a few last ones out of you while we still have you. So thank you again. We haven't really talked about the kind of broader macro that much. I'd love just to hear a little kind of mark-to-market on what you're thinking now and what you're hearing from your Permian producer customers.

Yes. I think Natalie, tell us what you're seeing on our systems would be the best way to start.

Mike, well, this is Natalie Gayden. I would say in Midland, volumes are outperforming our expectations. The well connects in '26 are up 25% from what I told you last time. We're now expecting almost over 600 wells to be connected to the system next year.

What was the question? I think you asked when these projects, when would we expect them to be fully ramped?

Yes. NRT will be ramping right now. It will be full, call it, by the middle of next year, the first train. And then the second train comes online shortly after that.

This is Vrathan Reddy on for Jeremy. I just had one question. I think previous remarks have touched upon the potential for not a major step-up in '26 organic growth CapEx, but maybe point to the high end, if anything. In that case, curious where in the value chain you see the most attractive opportunities for organic growth? And if you could just expand upon that a little bit.

I'll take the first shot at it and then let Natalie and maybe Tug. I mean I don't think we're through rebuilding gas processing plants. The appetite we have for exports is stunning. And I think you could see us moving in both directions.

Yes. This is Natalie. On processing, if you think about it, there's 5 Bcf a day under construction in the Permian of gas processing capacity in a basin that's been growing almost 2.2 Bcf a day a year. So in the near term, let's just call it, we’ve got clear line of sight to two more plants.

Just with respect to ethane specifically on the export side, we're continuing to see strong international interest for ethane. There's a lot of demand.

First, I thought you sounded more optimistic than previously on the PDH issues now being behind you. So am I hearing that right? And can you talk a little more to what gives you confidence after this turnaround that you're more or less in the clear going forward?

On PDH 2, we've had some issues with coking on the fourth reactor. As Jim mentioned in his remarks, we've developed new operating procedures and made some modifications during the outage to address some of those, and we continue to work with a high-level team from our licensor to improve the process. So we're very optimistic going forward that the PDH run rates are going to continue to increase from where they've been, and we'll see a great improvement in 2026.

Keith, it's Justin. So it's a portfolio of all of the above, but it's primarily rooted in the volumes that our gathering and processing plants bring to us.

Congrats on your retirement, Tony. I wanted to go back to just some of the NGL and LPG stuff, especially on the terminal volumes. It seems like for the third consecutive quarter, we saw lower implied volumes on the LPG side. I was just wondering if you guys could provide maybe a little bit more detail on kind of what's going on there, if there's anything to unpack.

In the third quarter, we had some minor maintenance, which resulted in some lower volumes. So nothing other than that. Demand is still strong. It's robust.

Okay. And then just continuing on this theme of LPGs. We're starting to see propane inventories reach new records here. I'm curious about your perspective on the current state of the domestic propane market and whether there are any implications for potential benefits in your storage business or marketing opportunities you are monitoring in the short to medium term.

Contango presents opportunities, we have the storage assets to monetize that, and we will. With respect to lower LPG price that could potentially create arbitrage opportunities across the water, those will be the opportunity sets.

My first one is on August 6, you announced the acquisition of some assets from Oxy. How is the integration of those assets going? And the best acquisitions are ones which always come with some organic growth opportunity. So if you could highlight the organic growth opportunities on these assets, maybe Athena? What else can be done to further get more revenue and EBITDA out of these assets?

Yes, that asset acquisition was strategic. It’s a 75,000-acre acreage dedication. It's got over 1,000 drillable locations. We love assets that are already producing gas, but then the development for that asset is going to be quite constructive and strong. We’ve already seen synergies with the acquisition.

I was just curious, looking at the Permian more broadly, there's a lot of announced egress capacity slated to come online over the next few years. Just wondering what you make of it considering your currently outlined growth expectations for the basin. Is there a chance that some of these projects get sidelined? Or maybe conversely, do you think there is a chance that Permian growth actually accelerates to meet the announced build-out?

Next year, let's just call it, 4.5 Bcf a day coming online. I don't think we'll see any delays, but as a reminder, this is an oil basin. These gassier benches aren't being drilled. So yes, takeaways there are even better for them.

That concludes our remarks for today. Thank you to everyone for your participation, and have a good day.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.