Frontdoor, Inc. Q2 FY2022 Earnings Call

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Frontdoor's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Frontdoor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Bill Cobb, and Frontdoor's Chief Financial Officer, Brian Turcotte. The press release and slide presentation that will be used during today's call can be found on the Investor Relations section of Frontdoor's website, which is located at investors.frontdoorhome.com. As stated on Slide 3 of the presentation, I'd like to remind you that this call and webcast may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here today. These risk factors are explained in detail in the company's filings with the SEC. Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our filings for a more detailed discussion of our forward-looking statements and the risks and uncertainties related to such statements. All forward-looking statements are made as of today, August 4. And except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures throughout today's call. We have included definitions of these terms and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP financial measures in our press release and the appendix to the presentation in order to better assist you in understanding our financial performance. Before I turn the call over to Bill for opening comments, let me start with a brief introduction. As many of you know, Bill has been Chairman since the spin-off of Frontdoor, and he assumed the CEO role at the beginning of June. Bill is a tenured executive, with over 35 years of business experience at world-class market-leading companies. He has served on several boards and was the President and Chief Executive Officer of H&R Block from 2011 to 2017. Prior to that, he had extensive corporate and marketing experience through various leadership roles at eBay, Pepsi and Pizza Hut from 1987 to 2008. You can find more on Bill's background on Frontdoor's website. I am very pleased to now turn the call over to Frontdoor's new CEO, Bill Cobb, for opening comments.

Thanks, Matt, and hi, everyone. It is great to be here to speak with all of you. I look forward to getting out and meeting our investors over the next several months, and I'm extremely excited about the opportunity to lead the next phase of Frontdoor's journey. Let me start on Slide 4 by saying that over the last few months, I have been able to meet with a broader group of Frontdoor's associates, and I continue to be impressed with the level of talent across the organization. I am also very bullish on the company's future, as we know, there is substantial demand for home repair and maintenance services across the United States. I am confident that we have a great business with a bright long-term future ahead of us. However, we are facing some significant near-term issues that are worse than I expected coming into this position. We are looking at a macroeconomic environment that continues to deteriorate, rapid cost inflation, declining consumer sentiment and a dynamic global backdrop marked by war, rising geopolitical tensions and global supply chain disruptions. So let me state it right up front. We are lowering our full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of $170 million to $190 million as a result of these factors. These are difficult times, and I have been struck by the magnitude of the impact on our financial outlook. But let me be clear, we will work our way through it and emerge stronger for it. I still completely believe in the future of this company, and the last two months in the job has only increased my conviction despite the tough outlook for 2022. Frontdoor competes in the growing home services space, has a great recurring revenue business model, a strong management team and a solid foundation as the leader in the home service plan category. Let's turn to Slide 5, and review some of the changes that are currently underway at Frontdoor as we are moving quickly to improve execution and better balance revenue growth and earnings. Specifically, our teams are working on the following areas: first, we have determined that priority one is to zero in on rebuilding the core home service plan business. We are the leader in the home service plan category. We offer consumers both peace of mind and budget protection against inevitable and unexpected expenses and the inconvenience of breakdowns to major systems and appliances. Our home service plans do this by leveraging the convenience of our prequalified network of 17,000 contractors that we partner with. This is a great recurring revenue business with significant upside, given our powerful marketplace model. That means that our new businesses will be transitioning to a supporting role. ProConnect has not performed up to our expectations, and my team is working to complete a full study of how to improve our on-demand offering as it does not make sense to continue to lose money in the current approach. But to be clear, an on-demand offering remains an important element to realizing our long-term potential, and that has not changed. We are extremely optimistic about how an on-demand approach still gives us the potential to broaden our reach to a much larger pool of customers than what we can capture today under a home service plan. We are looking to go much deeper into this market and completely restate our offering as I think we can execute much better in this area. Now turning to Streem. We love the Streem technology's ability to remotely troubleshoot issues around the home and provide real-time feedback to our customers and contractors. However, going forward, we will be laser-focused on integrating Streem into the core business and less focus on selling this technology platform to third-party customers. This will have the added benefit of reducing our costs. Second, we have reorganized key parts of the company to increase our focus on execution. We now have clear and separate teams dedicated to marketing, sales and product, which I will speak to in a moment. They are supported by operations, service, technology and our other internal functions to create a seamless end-to-end operating role. Third, we are working to address the rapid acceleration in claims cost inflation. I have put together a cross-functional team across finance and contractor relations to really dig into this and reevaluate how we can better control our costs. Brian will go into the details more in a minute. And four, we are undertaking a comprehensive review of our total SG&A expense footprint, which is expected to be completed in the third quarter of this year. While we continue to generate positive cash flow and have a strong balance sheet, we have to adapt to the current business environment and reduce expenses. Now turning to Slide 6, where I want to share some of the guiding principles that I'm using to look at all aspects of the company. First, we will approach the business with a comprehensive focus on the customer and increased focus on our branding approach. While I generally feel good about our overall approach to growing the business, I don't believe we have executed up to our potential, and we are not growing the market as well as we should. Our goal is to offer one straightforward, consistently great experience. We operate in a complex category, and we must improve how we go to market. As part of this effort, we are also undertaking a broad customer segmentation study. This will give us better insight into how the customers' view of their home has changed since the start of the pandemic and the work-from-home expansion. Second, we will have a detailed and focused technology road map as we continue to digitize our business. This group is led by Tony Bacos, our Chief Digital Officer, who is a well-known industry leader that came to us from Amazon. Tony has helped us to really focus our digital priorities at Frontdoor. We remain committed to investing in our digital transformation as it will help us drive a superior customer and contractor experience as well as cost savings over the long term. Third, we want to simplify all aspects of our business. One of my early impressions since becoming CEO is how complex our legacy internal processes and systems remain. We want to reinvent how we interact with customers, contractors and other partners to reduce manual work. As we are in the process of reevaluating so many areas of our company, we plan to hold an Investor Day in early March of 2023. This will allow investors to meet the senior leaders of our management team and allow us to share more details on how we are transforming this company. Now turning to Slide 7 and a quick review of the business. Taking over the CEO role has provided me with a deeper understanding of the challenges our business is facing. As I mentioned earlier, I think we know a much better job of executing, specifically on the overall sales process to drive revenue growth across all of our channels. That is why I reorganized the company to better define roles and focus on building our brand and providing us with an end-to-end view of the consumer. We hired Kathy Collins as our Chief Marketing Officer. Kathy is an accomplished leader with broad experiences across all facets of marketing. She most recently served as Chief Sales and Marketing Officer for a large medical benefits provider. Prior to that, she held various roles around marketing strategy, product development and client experience at Lee Jeans, Massage Envy and H&R Block. And she specializes in transforming brands of legacy businesses. We also hired Jessica Fields as our Chief Sales Officer. Jes will have responsibility for real estate and direct-to-consumer sales and business development across the Frontdoor portfolio. Jes was previously with Rocket Mortgage, where she was in charge of driving revenue and partnerships across the company. Prior to that, she had a variety of sales experiences at International Bancard and Sears. With her prior real estate experience, Jes is bringing new ideas on how to improve our go-to-market real estate sales efforts. Additionally, Raj Midha has transitioned to lead home service plan, product and pricing across all of our brands. Raj brings a wealth of home service plan experience, given his leadership roles in marketing, strategy and product development at Frontdoor, American Home Shield and ServiceMaster over the last 13 years. By realigning these teams, we expect to increase focus on the customer, develop a more consistent sales methodology and improve accountability throughout the sales funnel. As part of this effort, we are evaluating changes to our overall marketing and branding strategy. We are also looking at our products, which should be transparent, simple, easy to understand and use. While still early days, we have already identified opportunities to execute better and drive more sales over time. In the near term, our revenue growth will be primarily impacted by the challenges we are facing in selling home service plans in our real estate channel. The record low days on market continue to support a strong seller's market which, in turn, makes it difficult for us to attach our home service plan as part of a real estate transaction. This trend appeared to continue through June based on the most recent data from the National Association of Realtors. Existing home sales declined 14% year-over-year. Inventory data was mixed as the supply of homes increased to three months from 2.5 months, yet the days on market declined again to just 14 days and all cash offers increased from 23% to 25%. However, we believe that the real estate market has already entered a period of transition. Mortgage rates have increased to 5.5%, and we are hearing commentary from our real estate brokerage partners that the market dynamics are quickly shifting as multiple offers are diminishing and inspections are becoming the norm once again. Let me be clear. We believe that the sales decline in our real estate channel is not permanent, and we are optimistic that improvements in these leading indicators will result in a more favorable market environment to sell home service plans as the real estate market normalizes. Regardless of market conditions, I believe that we can do a better job of executing in our real estate channel. Jes is working to change our sales culture and increase accountability. We are prioritizing leads in the strongest markets and aggressively deploying our field sales team to improve conversion. These changes are expected to improve our overall capture rate in all market conditions. In conclusion, there is a high level of energy across the company as we are moving quickly to make improvements at Frontdoor, and I am confident that we will turn things around. I have already made changes to our leadership team. We are aggressively addressing the challenging economic environment. We are taking steps to improve the execution and substantially reduce costs, and we are reimagining the industry that we founded. Longer term, our opportunity to profitably grow the business has not changed. We remain extremely confident in the underlying fundamentals for the following reasons: First, demand for home repair and maintenance services continues to grow, and is supported by changing demographics and recent home nesting trends; second, there is tremendous demand for digital transformation in the home services space; third, there is massive potential to deepen Frontdoor's market penetration as we improve our branding; and finally, there is significant opportunity to grow through our on-demand offering. I will now turn the call over to Brian to review our financial results.

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8, and I'll review our second quarter 2022 financial results. Second quarter 2022 revenue increased 5% versus the prior year period to $487 million as a result of higher pricing and a mix shift to higher-priced products in our home service plan business, which more than offset a slight decline in customer volume. Looking at our home service plan channels, second quarter revenue derived from customer renewals increased 10% versus the prior year period due to growth in the number of renewed home service plans and improved price realization. First year real estate revenue decreased 26% versus the prior year period, reflecting a continued decline in the number of home service plans in this channel, offset in part by improved price realization. The decline in the number of home service plans in this channel was due to the ongoing challenges presented by the seller's market, driven in part by extremely low home inventory levels across the U.S. First year direct-to-consumer, or D2C, revenue increased 15% versus the prior year period due to improved price realization and a mix shift to higher-priced products as the volume was relatively flat. Second quarter revenue reported in our other channel increased $5 million over the prior year period, primarily driven by ProConnect growth. Gross profit declined 13% in the second quarter versus the prior year period to $211 million, and our gross profit margin was 43%. I'll speak to the inflationary cost pressures that unfavorably impacted gross profit in a moment. Moving down to income statement. I would point out that as part of our efforts to better match our office space footprint to our current needs and also to reduce operating expense, we are entering into a sublease for our downtown Memphis headquarters. Our plans are to do a smaller and less expensive space, which is more centrally located for our Memphis-based employee population. While this action resulted in a noncash impairment charge of $11 million in the second quarter related to our headquarters facility operating lease right-of-use assets and leasehold improvements, the cash flow and adjusted EBITDA impacts over the remainder of our lease term are expected to be positive. Net income decreased $7 million in the second quarter of 2022 to $33 million. Adjusted net income decreased $22 million over the prior year period to $44 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $77 million in the second quarter or $37 million lower than the prior year period. Let's move to the table on Slide 9, and I'll provide context for the year-over-year decline in second quarter adjusted EBITDA. Starting at the top, we had $23 million of favorable revenue conversion in the second quarter of 2022 versus the prior year period. Contract claims costs increased $53 million in the second quarter versus the prior year period, primarily driven by an acceleration of inflationary cost pressures, including rising contract-related expenses and higher parts and equipment costs. Second quarter claims costs were also unfavorably impacted by approximately $4 million from the extremely hot weather across the country, primarily in May. Additionally, contract claims cost for the second quarter of 2022 include a $7 million unfavorable adjustment related to the adverse cost development of prior period claims. Sales and marketing costs increased $6 million in the second quarter versus the prior year period, primarily related to increased investments in the DTC channel and ProConnect. And finally, general and administrative costs increased by $1 million in the second quarter, primarily due to increased professional fees. I'll now go into more detail on the significant claims cost inflation we're experiencing as a result of the challenging macroeconomic environment, the effects on the business and our ongoing cost mitigation strategies. Over the 12 months ended June 2022, the consumer price index increased 9.1%, not only the largest 12-month increase in over 40 years, but also included an acceleration over the last two months of the second quarter. Furthermore, we are seeing cost inflation in home services rising even faster. For example, in June, our contractors were faced with fuel costs that were up over 60% versus one year ago. We also saw the producing price index for heating and air conditioning equipment and appliances up over 20% and 15%, respectively. It is one of the most challenging environments we've ever faced, and it continues to evolve as issues such as the war in Ukraine and its impact on fuel prices and rolling COVID lockdowns in China impacting the global supply chain. However, we are seeing some green shoots as certain commodity prices are now declining. For example, cold-rolled steel, a critical component in the manufacture of water heaters and HVAC equipment, declined 20% in June versus the prior year period. Additionally, as I mentioned last quarter, while we have great pricing visibility and an ability to influence our own direct purchases of parts and equipment, we don't have that same level of real-time visibility into our contractor costs. Our contractors, for the most part, who are small business owners, generally pass along their higher costs to us. And as they can take months to complete their billing process, our ability to identify and manage accelerating contractor costs in the near term is limited. I believe it would be helpful to provide more context as to how the current environment impacts Frontdoor's operations. The challenging macroeconomic environment, including higher parts and equipment costs and contractor-related inflation, resulted in our second quarter year-over-year cost per service request increasing about 23%, which was much higher than the mid- to high-teens increase we experienced in the first quarter. We believe the main drivers of this inflation are: first, a rapid acceleration of contractor-related costs, including higher fuel costs, operating costs and labor rates. It also includes a substantial increase in contractor supply parts and equipment costs; second, our product mix now includes broader coverage offerings, such as our new Platinum product, which has both a higher price point and a higher service cost; and third, although still within our projected ranges, we are paying higher prices for parts and equipment we directly source. As we've mentioned in the past, implementing additional price increases is a lever we can pull to help cover higher inflation, and we've already taken two price increases earlier this year. We will continue to look for opportunities to increase price while minimizing the impact to our customer count. We are currently working on launching an update to our dynamic pricing model. We will take that opportunity to implement a third round of price increases for certain products in the second half of the year. As a result, we are now targeting a 12% to 13% overall price increase in 2022. However, it's worth noting that with our annual service plan structure, price increases take time to be realized. And while we started the process early this year, they will provide more revenue and gross profit benefit in 2023. I also wanted to remind you that our price testing continues to show that our customers are mostly price inelastic. And we expect to be able to continue to increase our price over time to cover inflationary pressures. Beyond price, our top priority is working to improve visibility into our contractor cost trends and then to mitigate the impact of the inflation on our margins. Let me explain some of our initiatives in more detail. First, we are continuing to improve our processes. These actions primarily focus on how we engage and utilize our contractors, including increasing the percent of total jobs assigned to our preferred contractors. We're also expanding our recruiting efforts to increase our contractor count and create more competition for contractor selection in key markets. Our contract relations team is also improving our end-to-end operating processes in an effort to further mitigate cost increases. One example is they now require a review of all service risk cost estimates over a certain dollar limit from non-preferred contractors to manage our cost exposure. Second, we are continuing to maximize our strategic sourcing efforts by broadening the Frontdoor parts and equipment sourcing network and supplying lower cost materials to our contractors than they could have purchased on their own. Another example is offering our contractors direct buy programs for water heaters and HVAC equipment that we purchase at much lower prices. The added benefit of this program is that it's digital and reduces the number of inbound phone calls from contractors. And third, we are undertaking a comprehensive review of our SG&A expenses and have already identified a number of cost reduction opportunities that will result in over $30 million of improvement to our original full year 2022 SG&A guidance. Please now turn to Slide 10 for a review of our cash flow and cash position. Net cash provided from operating activities was $94 million for the six months ended June 30, 2022, and was comprised of $68 million in earnings adjusted for noncash charges and $26 million of cash provided from working capital. Net cash used for investing activities was $19 million and was primarily comprised of technology-related capital expenditures. Net cash used for financing activities was $69 million, primarily driven by $59 million used for share repurchases. Since launching the $400 million share repurchase program last September, we have repurchased $162 million worth of shares or 40% of the total program. I should note that we continue to prioritize share repurchases in our capital allocation strategy and remain committed to returning cash to our valued shareholders. However, like many other companies, the amount of additional share repurchases, if any, will depend on the macroeconomic environment and how our business performs throughout the rest of 2022. Free cash flow, calculated as net cash provided from operating activities minus property additions, was $75 million for the six months ended June 30, 2022, compared to $104 million for the prior year. We ended the second quarter of 2022 with $269 million in cash. Restricted net assets totaled $159 million and unrestricted cash totaled $109 million. However, unrestricted cash, combined with $248 million of available capacity under our revolving credit facility, provides us with a solid available liquidity position of $357 million. I'll now conclude my prepared remarks with our current thoughts regarding the financial outlook for the third quarter and updated full year 2022 provided on Slide 11. We expect our third quarter 2022 revenue to be within a range of $470 million to $480 million, which reflects an increase in direct-to-consumer and renewal channel revenue versus the prior year period, partly offset by approximately 30% decline in real estate channel revenue. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $65 million and $75 million, which is below the prior year period and driven by the accelerating inflationary cost trends, the impact of the July heat wave on HVAC claims and the challenging real estate environment. Turning to our updated full year 2022 outlook, revenue is projected to be within a range of $1.63 billion to $1.65 billion. The full year revenue growth assumptions include upper single-digit revenue growth in the D2C and renewal channels and a nearly 30% decrease in the real estate channel, driven by the historically challenging seller's market and extremely low levels of home inventory. On a consolidated basis, our core home service plan business revenue growth is now expected to be in the low single digits. Customer count is expected to decline by approximately 5% in 2022, primarily driven by the weakness in first year real estate sales. Additionally, reductions in ProConnect marketing investment in the back half of the year will lower the full year revenue target to $30 million to $35 million. Our full year 2022 gross profit margin is projected to be between 41% and 42% as a result of the challenging macroeconomic conditions, including an acceleration of inflationary cost pressures, which is partly offset by higher pricing and process improvement efforts. This projection assumes that inflation will be 20% on a cost per service request basis, and the actual number of service requests will be slightly down versus prior year. We're now targeting full year 2022 SG&A to range between $525 million and $535 million, including a stock compensation expense target of approximately $28 million. The $30 million decrease from our original 2022 guidance primarily relates to the SG&A expense reduction actions I mentioned earlier. Based on these updated inputs, full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $170 million and $190 million. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Bill for closing comments before Matt opens the question-and-answer session.

Thanks, Brian. A couple of final thoughts. This management team is not pleased with where we are with this outlook. Our Board has directed me to make the changes necessary as quickly as possible. As a result, we are working with a high level of intensity to do everything we can to improve our results for the rest of 2022 and put ourselves in the right footing heading into next year. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Matt to open the question-and-answer session.

Thanks, Brian. A couple of final thoughts. This management team is not pleased with where we are with this outlook. Our Board has directed me to make the changes necessary as quickly as possible. As a result, we are working with a high level of intensity to do everything we can to improve our results for the rest of 2022 and put ourselves in the right footing heading into next year. With that, I'll now turn the call back over to Matt to open the question-and-answer session.

Our first question comes from Ian Zaffino from Oppenheimer. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Bill, I wanted to ask a few things now that you're in the CEO seat. You mentioned ProConnect really not performing the way it should be. What exactly is going wrong there? Why does it continue to lose money? Is it basically a scaling thing? Is there something else wrong with the product? Maybe help us understand what you identify as the issues there? And maybe what you can do to sort of get it back on the right track? And then I have a follow-up. Thanks.

Yes. I believe we have a branding issue. The term ProConnect may not have been the best choice, and it is also somewhat generic. We haven't invested beyond building that brand and clarifying what it really entails. Additionally, we expanded too quickly into too many cities and trades without properly developing our processes. We spread ourselves thin, entering about 35 cities and covering all major trades when we probably should have focused on around five trades in a limited number of markets. Furthermore, our engagement with contractors and the value proposition we offered wasn't appealing to them, which created some confusion and difficulty in attracting contractors. As I mentioned earlier, we're planning a complete overhaul of our go-to-market strategy. However, to provide some context, we have the home service plan, which mainly operates on a repair and replace model. Our goal with the on-demand offering is to introduce a repair and maintenance service so that customers can engage with us without needing a year-long subscription. We believe combining an annual contract subscription model with the ability to access one-off or a la carte services for repair and maintenance will create an optimal balance in our overall business model. As I noted before, it's crucial to maintain our focus on on-demand services. We need to revitalize the ProConnect business, and while we continue to support it, that support will be at reduced levels. Revenue will still be generated this year, and the current team has made progress on improving our processes and customer interactions. This will be vital moving forward, although execution has not met our expectations.

Okay. Thank you. That's helpful. And then on the real estate side, I know you laid out a bunch of the headwinds you're seeing at the sort of macro. But are you also seeing maybe a share shift inside that market, maybe you're not holding the share like you intended to, you're not growing the share like you want to? And if that's the case, what do you plan to do about it? How do you plan to address that? And then if I just sneak in one other question, maybe for Brian, is third quarter has been very hot so far. What are you assuming as far as headwinds from the weather and increased service calls? Thanks.

Yes. Let me address the real estate aspect. While I won't specifically comment on whether we've lost market share, it’s clear that we need to improve in this area. Our performance in real estate has not met expectations, despite the challenging market conditions. Jes Fields, our new Chief Sales Officer, is actively working on this. She has introduced a new sales culture focused on accountability and essential tasks. Every team member now has a weekly field sales plan, and there are mandatory training modules for field agents each week. Jes is dedicated solely to real estate and is not diversifying her focus elsewhere at this moment. Our priority is to improve in real estate, and she is fully committed to that. She brings a tremendous amount of energy and has infused our sales process with a new dynamism. I'm extremely pleased with her hiring. Jes is results-driven and believes there will be five to six million home sales this year, and we need to capture our fair share of that. Brian, I’ll hand it over to you for the next question.

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, Ian. Regarding the third quarter and HVAC claims, we've had the benefit of seeing July, and it was a hot July, but we've built that into our forecast and also maybe a little more hot weather in August. And we start to trail off towards the end of the third quarter, obviously, with HVAC claims. So I think we've built that into our guidance, but we're not sitting pat watching the weather. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we're improving our processes to lower our cost. We're trying to move to the mid-range, mid-80s for our preferred contractors. We're expanding our recruiting for contractors. We're improving the end-to-end processes, as I mentioned in the call. And also on the sourcing side, trying to lower our costs through maximizing our sourcing efforts and purchasing lower cost materials that our contractors could purchase. So we're watching the weather, we're trying to reduce our costs and focus on the things we can control. Is that helpful?

Thank you. Our next question comes from Youssef Squali from Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Hi. Good morning guys. This is Nick Cronin, on for Youssef. Can you just talk a little bit about the pace of price increases? I think you said you've gone through two already this year with another to go. And any impact you're seeing on customer churn? And then secondly, just for Streem, is that still on track to do $10 million to $15 million this year? I know you called out ProConnect going down. Thanks.

Let me address the price increase. As Brian mentioned, we have implemented two price increases and are planning on a third. By the end of the year, we expect to have increased prices by about 12% to 13%. Any customer churn or decline has occurred as anticipated. We generally have inelastic demand and we remain mindful of that. We're actively marketing and adding value for our customers. However, due to significant inflation and rising contractor costs, we feel compelled to adjust our pricing more than we would typically have considered. As noted, there will be a decline in customers this year, mainly related to the real estate sector. Overall, I am confident in our approach to managing and implementing our pricing strategies. Now, I'll hand it over to you, Brian.

I believe you addressed it well, Bill. The only point I want to highlight, Nick, is that the 12% to 13% price increase, when considered on an annualized basis relative to our revenue, more than compensates for the increase in cost of goods sold we anticipate this year. Although we may not see the full impact this year, as I mentioned earlier, we will benefit from it next year. This clearly illustrates the effectiveness of our pricing strategy within our model.

Got it. And then Streem, is that on pace to do $10 million to $15 million still?

Yes, Streem will not be tracked that way again. As Bill explained, we will consider it a technology initiative for us. We appreciate the business, but it serves as a technology support for our main home service plan business. Therefore, we are investing less money into acquiring customers and enterprise clients. As a result, the revenue for that segment will be significantly lower this year.

And you've built that into the revenue guidance we provided.

That's included in the guidance, yes.

Our next question comes from Justin Patterson from KeyBanc. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you very much. Perhaps just a big picture one around the home service plan opportunity. This is a product that's been in market for quite some time now. How do you think about just the attractiveness of that opportunity? Where you are in market share penetration? And what the incremental investments are to really grow home service plan adoption more meaningfully? Thank you.

Yes, Justin, I think about this every day. One of the reasons we're conducting a customer segmentation study, which we haven't done in several years, is to recognize that the world has changed, especially with the home becoming a central part of our lives. We need to grasp these dynamics. Our research and tracking indicate there's still a demand for repair, home maintenance, and replacement of major systems. The core market, which we often refer to as a $500 billion total addressable market, is something I'm trying to define more accurately for us. While we won't delve into the renovation sector, I believe that between the on-demand services and home service plans, we can build a substantial business. The opportunity is certainly present, but we must modernize our approach. We need to take specific steps regarding our products and offerings. This year, we made progress with our Platinum product by expanding services, which allowed for higher pricing potential, but we also faced increased service costs and launched it during a year with various challenges related to contractor expenses. Therefore, some rebalancing is necessary. Overall, I still see a viable market. Regarding investments, as I analyze everything, I believe we can maintain a robust financial model going forward. We just have to determine the best strategies for our marketing and sales efforts, which is what we're currently focused on.

Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Thanks for taking the question. Maybe taking a step back, I know we've talked a lot about the short term on the call. But Bill, you're new to the role you have now in the organization. It's been a couple of months since you took on that role. Can you give us a little bit of your perspective of what you've seen from inside the company? And how you think about your agenda versus maybe what in prior periods the company was focused on? And how you think about affecting change inside the organization? Maybe that's question one. And then two, just coming back to the real estate. Again, zooming out, understood blocking and tackling renewed focus around gaining share. Can you give us a little bit sense of like how the market share dynamic changes? Like what should we be thinking of in terms of the ramp of putting investments behind wanting to change the dynamic in real estate and actually seeing it come through in the results? And how much of that is in your control as a result of investments versus out of your control just because of the broader real estate environment. Thanks for the back.

Okay. If I missed anything, feel free to ask again. From my perspective, the overarching strategy remains the same. We continue to see significant potential in home service plans and recognize opportunities despite any execution challenges we've faced with the on-demand aspect. The main shift for us is the greater emphasis I’m placing on home service plans. Previously, we tried to develop Streem as a distinct business within ProConnect. I've come to believe we should focus on integrating these efforts into a single business, leveraging Streem's resources and ProConnect's insights to enhance our home service plan offerings moving forward. This is what we've been concentrating on recently. Overall, the team is excited about our direction. I've mentioned to the company that we should reinvent the category we created, and that's a guiding principle as we reassess every aspect of our business. I believe we can develop a modern, compelling offering. Our digital transformation is advancing, reminding me of my experience at H&R Block when they overlooked digital engagement years ago. By my departure, we had developed a product that competed well with TurboTax. We’re in a similar situation now, focusing on digital transformation, and I’m very impressed with Tony Bacos and his team’s relentless dedication to this goal. We have some new management members in marketing and sales, and Raj's expertise in product and pricing is invaluable. We're optimistic about our future opportunities, even though the results from 2022 haven’t been ideal. Regarding real estate, Jes and I agree that we shouldn't be overly concerned about market trends. As Jes mentioned during her presentation to the Board, we can expect five to six million homes sold next year. Our focus must be on capitalizing on those sales. We have recently renewed our partnership with Anywhere, formerly Realogy, and are working with HSOA. I was on a sales call with Jes last week, discussing how to build trusted partner relationships with potential partners. We aim to engage high-level real estate agencies while also focusing on individual real estate agents. As I mentioned before, this requires consistent effort. We need to ensure we have sufficient coverage, solid plans, and set targets, which reflects the proactive approach Jes has introduced.

Our next question comes from Brian Fitzgerald from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, Brian.

Thank you. We wanted to ask about the dynamics you're seeing, maybe more in general, in repair, in extensions, in the maintenance, maybe into home improvement over time. With the macro headwinds rising, are you seeing any shifts in consumer behavior resonating through dynamics, getting more frugal, maybe more tolerance for fixing versus replacing, anything you can tell there?

It's a great question, Brian. I would describe the current situation as swirling winds. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty due to the downturn in the stock market and how inflation has affected people at grocery stores and restaurants. We don't have a complete picture yet because the pace of change has been rapid. Generally, I believe these situations tend to normalize. Based on my experience, we are experiencing a shock, but we will overcome it. People will still want to buy new homes, maintain their homes, and repair systems. It’s important to focus on the broader perspective, which remains quite strong for our company. We certainly need to execute better, but despite the shocks to the system, there are still indicators pointing to a positive future. I believe we will navigate through this phase both as a company and as an economy, and then move forward from there.

That concludes our Q&A session for today. I will now hand back to the management team for closing remarks.

Thank you for participating this morning in our Q2 earnings call. We look forward to speaking with you going forward. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you again for joining Frontdoor's second quarter 2022 earnings call. Today's call is now concluded.