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Gap Inc Q1 FY2025 Earnings Call

Gap Inc (GAP)

Earnings Call FY2025 Q1 Call date: 2024-08-29 Concluded

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Operator

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I would like to welcome everyone to The Gap, Inc. first quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. For those analysts who wish to participate in the question and answer session after the presentation, you may now press star 1 to enter the Q&A queue. As a reminder, please limit your questions to one per participant. If anyone should require assistance during the call, please press the star key followed by the zero key on your touch-tone phone. I would now like to introduce your host, Whitney Notaro, head of investor relations.

Whitney Notaro Head of Investor Relations

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to The Gap, Inc.'s first quarter 2025 earnings call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that the information made available on this conference call contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause our actual results to be materially different. For information on factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements, please refer to the cautionary statements contained in our latest earnings release. The risk factors described in the company's annual report on Form 10-Ks filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on 03/18/2025 and any subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, all of which are available on gapinc.com. These forward-looking statements are based on information as of today, 05/29/2025, and we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise our forward-looking statements. Our latest earnings release and the accompanying materials available on gapinc.com also include descriptions and reconciliations of financial measures not aligned with generally accepted accounting principles. Joining me on the call today are Chief Executive Officer, Richard Dickson, and Chief Financial Officer, Katrina O'Connell. With that, I'll turn the call over to Richard.

Thank you, Whitney, and good afternoon, everyone. The first quarter was another excellent quarter during which we delivered what we said we would, exceeding expectations across key financial metrics. We had positive comparable sales for the fifth consecutive quarter, expanded both gross margin and operating margin, and gained market share for the ninth consecutive quarter. We are in the early stages of our transformation, and our two largest brands, Gap and Old Navy, are thriving in the marketplace and demonstrating the potential of our brand reinvigoration playbook. Old Navy and Gap saw growth across all income cohorts, with Old Navy gaining share in both top and bottom cohorts and Gap gaining share in top and middle cohorts, demonstrating that our strategic intent is working. During the quarter, we increased our year-over-year e-commerce penetration with The Gap, Inc. ranking as the number one apparel e-commerce business in the US, reflecting our ability to meet customers where they are. We remain focused on controlling the controllables, driving continuous improvement, operating and building this company, and pursuing exciting opportunities as we look for long-term growth. Our strategic priorities are clear, our intent is unwavering, and despite a dynamic environment, we are firmly on course, reflected in our results. Tariffs are understandably top of mind, let me take a moment to share how we are approaching this topic. Based on what we know today, we are working to develop plans to mitigate as much of the anticipated tariff impact as possible, taking actions in the short term without compromising the long-term integrity of our strategy. We have been successfully diversifying our sourcing footprint for several years, demonstrating the agility and resilience of our supply chain. China, for example, used to be one of the top sourcing countries for our product. In 2024, it represented less than 10% of our sourcing, and exiting 2025, we now expect it to be less than 3%. Most other countries represent less than 10%, with Vietnam and Indonesia representing 27% and 19% of our sourcing last year, respectively, and our goal is for no country to account for more than 25% by the end of 2026. We are taking a collaborative approach with our global sourcing partners to maintain and build on the long-term relationships we have across our supply chain. Diversification also means near-shoring as well as domestic investment. We're planning to double our vendor sourcing of American-grown cotton in 2026. With about 90% of our sales in the quarter in the US and a US workforce of over 65,000, investing in the US is an important priority for our business. Today, we are much better equipped to handle complex headwinds because we have a stronger financial foundation and we are operating with greater discipline, growing brand momentum, and improved platform capabilities. The first quarter was yet another proof point that our strategy is working, and I remain optimistic yet realistic about the opportunities ahead as we navigate a highly dynamic environment. On today's call, as usual, I'll provide an update on our first quarter performance and progress in the context of our four strategic priorities. Then Katrina will walk you through our detailed financial results and our financial outlook, after which we will open the call for questions. Let's start with our first strategic priority, financial and operational rigor. The Gap, Inc. comparable sales were up 2% in the quarter. Comps at Old Navy, our largest brand, were up 3%. This is the brand's ninth consecutive quarter of market share gains, reinforcing its leadership position as the number one specialty apparel brand and retailer in the US. Gap comps were up 5%, the sixth consecutive quarter of positive comps, and the brand delivered its eighth consecutive quarter of market share gains. Banana Republic comps were flat as we continue to focus on reestablishing this premium brand in our portfolio. As we expected, Athleta comps have been challenging, down 8%. We remain focused on resetting the brand for the long term. We expanded operating margin by 40 basis points versus last year, EPS was $0.51, up 24% versus the first quarter of last year. And we ended the quarter with a strong cash balance of approximately $2.2 billion. The rigor and discipline we have put into managing the business is serving us well. Turning to our next strategic priority: driving relevance and revenue by executing on our brand reinvigoration playbook. Our portfolio consists of iconic, trusted brands, each in a different stage of the brand reinvigoration journey. Let's begin with Old Navy. Old Navy is off to a strong start, outperforming in the first quarter with a 3% comp and the ninth consecutive quarter of market share gains. This momentum underscores Old Navy's growing relevance with customers and the team's continued rigor of execution. We are bringing more innovation, style, and value in 2025, and the brand's category leadership drove its Q1 performance, led by active and denim, which are both strategic growth categories for the brand. During the quarter, we continued to advance our strategic pursuit to become the destination for the family as the value player in the active category. Notably, Old Navy continued to gain share in active as the number five player in the category. The launch of our Studio Smooth collection outperformed our expectations, delivering exceptional comfort and value to consumers and marking another step forward in our expansion in the category. And we're not stopping there. With our active product resonating, we're amplifying the storytelling. Earlier this week, we launched the brand's first significant active campaign in years, Old Navy, New Moves, which is receiving great reception. The brand's Q1 performance was also fueled by the success of our TrendRight, crafted denim collection with styles in loose and barrel fits, embroidery, and braided details. This is another great proof point that great style at great value wins across the family. During the quarter, Old Navy grew share in denim and ranked number four in the category. In women's, we launched a new occasion dress collection, supported by a marketing campaign that drove some of the highest reach and engagement on social media to date. An encouraging sign that our product and storytelling are landing with impact. The inspiration for the occasion line was born from customer insights, informed by Zach Posen's expertise in occasion wear, ultimately creating a versatile collection where standout style meets unbelievable value. Customers responded well to the collection's design and quality, reinforcing the strength of Old Navy's value, with strong full-price sell-through. Kids also had a great quarter, reinforcing our position as a top kids and baby brand in the US, with strength in licensing and graphics. We are continuing to lean into this strategic category with the recent launch of our iconic summer Americana collection for the family, launching our first partnership with Disney in key markets in June. We are focused on enhancing the customer experience at Old Navy, driving higher NPS scores for both stores and online. We're investing in technology that elevates the customer experience, and our phased rollout of AI-powered RFID is a great example of how we're bringing smarter operations and sharper service to our stores. We also announced plans for Old Navy's next-generation flagship in New York's Herald Square, an iconic location for an iconic brand. Opening in 2026, the new store will be a modern expression of Old Navy, showcasing our creativity through curated assortments and interactive moments designed to better engage customers. We enter the second quarter well-positioned with pricing clarity, consistent messaging, and leadership in key categories. We do so with sharper execution, a focused playbook as we lap last year's strongest quarterly comp in Q2, and a brand that is meeting the customer where they are and where they're going. Now let's turn to Gap. Gap continues to execute our reinvigoration playbook with clarity and consistency, delivering a standout 5% comp in Q1. This marks the brand's sixth consecutive quarter of positive comps and its eighth consecutive quarter of market share gains. Clear indications that Gap is resonating with consumers and gaining relevance. Momentum in women's continued to build quarter over quarter, fueling the brand's strong Q1 performance. We are building a consistent brand narrative that we are applying with relentless repetition. In Q1, this was exemplified through our exciting Feels Like Gap campaign that leveraged music by Meta, featuring Parker Posey. We continue to advance our authority in Denim in Q1. This is a foundational category for Gap and has been a key pillar of the brand's reinvigoration. We gained share in the category with on-trend styles like wide-leg, barrel, relaxed silhouettes, and pull-ons, all of which are exciting our customers. Taking insights from our Flatiron store, we are now rolling out an enhanced denim experience to top locations, illustrating how we're turning insights into action. We also saw strength in key categories like fleece, sweaters, and sleepwear, essentials that are building deeper loyalty and driving brand affinity with our customer. The brand strategy, including collaboration, is attracting a new generation to Gap while reinforcing the brand to those who have loved us for years. We are bridging the generation gap. Collaborations continue to drive relevance and revenue for the brand in the quarter, with Harlem's Fashion Row and Dohen contributing to strong new customer response, increased engagement, and meaningful buying beyond the collaborations. The Gap Studio Collection designed by Zach Posen launched last month, bringing excitement and buzz to the brand as well. As Gap brand's highest expression of style, craftsmanship, and quality, Gap Studio showcases expert tailoring, intricate details, and a modern take on American style. Initial response has been positive with strong sell-through at full price, demonstrating the brand's elevated design direction and generating over 1.3 billion impressions so far. All of these collaborations are showing strong attachment rates, with customers adding other Gap products to their basket. We are testing the brand's elasticity as we push the boundaries of our pricing power through some of these programs. The strength of the Gap brand is clear and reflects increasing brand relevance and a growing connection with our customers. With its execution of our playbook, we believe Gap is well-positioned to continue this momentum. At Banana Republic, we continue to focus on reestablishing the brand, and we are encouraged by the ongoing progress. We delivered a flat comp for the quarter, with fundamentals improving and new proof points emerging. The underlying health of the business is strengthening with a pricing architecture that is taking hold. Men's continued to perform well, driven by key items, and we are pleased by improving performance in women's, particularly in coats, skirts, and pants. Having made progress on fit and style, we're now focusing on greater alignment in design and merchandising across men's and women's, which we believe will cultivate broader appeal. The White Lotus collaboration was a standout, generating over 3 billion impressions and attracting new customers into the brand while staying true to the brand's aesthetic. This has been one of Banana Republic's most impactful collaborations yet. Banana's narrative-based storytelling is personifying the brand well through the lens of travel, adventure, and modern exploration. And the brand's marketing is becoming more efficient and effective as we continue to lean into our social-first influencer strategy. We continue to strengthen the foundation of Banana Republic, and with each quarter, we are seeing clearer signs of brand progress and customer engagement. Shifting to Athleta, as we shared last quarter, we are resetting the brand, and we know that we have more work to do. In Q1, we continued to work through the over-rotation we discussed last quarter towards new, more trend-forward customers. While we were successful in bringing new customers in the quarter, we still did not have enough compelling products to appeal to our existing customer base, and that showed in the brand's performance. As we mentioned on our fourth-quarter call, we expect this year to be choppy as we focus on fixing the fundamentals, and this is reflected in our outlook. Athleta is a purpose-driven, women-centric brand rooted in the power of women, and has a valuable place in both our portfolio and the industry. We are investing in design talent and, as we build out the team, we are working to find the right balance across the assortment, delivering product that blends fashion, function, and brand relevance. But this will take time. There's more work to do, and we are committed to taking the necessary steps to reset the brand. Moving to our third strategic priority: strengthening the platform. As we shared on our last earnings call, we continue to prioritize technology investments as a key lever to drive efficiency, elevate the customer experience, and position us for long-term growth. We aspire to be a human-centered, digitally enabled organization. We are fortunate to be operating in close proximity to the Bay Area's world tech community. We are actively engaging with leading tech companies as we continue to modernize our organization with exciting opportunities to drive innovation across our business. We look forward to sharing more as these initiatives progress. We're focused on building the right tools to power growth, advancing inventory management, digital product creation, AI-enabled capabilities to power customer and employee experiences, and strengthening our e-commerce engine with a sharper focus on customer insights and loyalty. Our rigor and the strength of our balance sheet allow us to go on offense, investing in the capabilities, infrastructure, and brands that will fuel growth for years to come. Behind every great strategy is a strong culture. The Gap, Inc. is a 55-year-old company that has navigated its share of disruption, and at the heart of that endurance is our culture. It's one defined by creativity, resilience, and a deep sense of purpose. These are driving impactful outcomes for our business. Today, we are a much stronger company, not just operationally, but culturally. We're building a more united, focused, and energized organization, one that's rooted in values, driven by talent, and inspired by the belief that great brands can shape culture and connect deeply with consumers. We've made real progress on the fundamentals of the business, but what sets us apart is our people, their dedication, agility, and belief in what we're building together. That culture is our superpower, and it's what will carry us forward. We delivered the first quarter with the same clarity of purpose and operational discipline that has become a hallmark of how we run the business. The rigor we've embedded across the organization continues to serve us well. We have a powerful portfolio of brands that matter, and we're proving that they can matter even more. Our strong supply chain, resilient teams, and sharp focus on controlling the controllables enabled us to manage expenses effectively and meet our bottom-line objectives. Looking ahead, I'm confident in our path forward, not just because of the results we've achieved, but because of the team that's delivering them. I want to thank our employees for their ongoing commitment and our partners for their continued collaboration. With a strong financial foundation and a more united culture, we believe we are well-equipped to navigate this complex, dynamic environment. We are making steady progress executing our strategy, and we remain focused on building a high-performing company that drives shareholder value creation over the long term. I'll now turn the call to Katrina for a closer look at our financials.

Thank you, Richard, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. In the first quarter, we once again exceeded financial expectations, demonstrating that the meaningful progress we've made on our strategic priorities is translating into strong results. The disciplined approach we've implemented throughout the business led to sales growth, gross margin improvement, SG&A efficiency, and earnings gains in the quarter, further strengthening our solid balance sheet. The revitalization of our brands, combined with continued financial and operational discipline, is enabling us to perform while we transform, consistently delivering on our commitments and strengthening overall performance. Our strong first-quarter results reinforce our confidence in the fundamentals of the business, allowing us to reaffirm the net sales outlook for fiscal year 2025. That said, as trade policy evolves, we remain mindful of the impact of tariffs on our financial outlook for the remainder of the year. In a moment, I'll share more details on our guidance, which reflects both the strength of our execution and brand momentum, while separately providing our view on the new headwinds from shifting trade policy. First, I'll share some key highlights from the quarter. It's been energizing to see our brand reinvigoration continue to drive net sales and comparable sales both up 2%. Our brands demonstrated progress in driving relevance and revenue, especially Old Navy and Gap, with strong market share gains. We expanded gross margin by 60 basis points and leveraged SG&A by 90 basis points versus last year. This resulted in an operating margin of 7.5% for Q1, a 140 basis point improvement compared to last year. And we achieved 24% growth in earnings per share to $0.51, highlighting the earnings power of our business. We returned approximately $131 million to shareholders in Q1 through share repurchases and dividends, demonstrating our commitment to our balanced capital deployment framework. We ended the quarter with $2.2 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, providing us with the financial flexibility to continue executing with confidence. We are reiterating our fiscal 2025 outlook of net sales up 1% to 2% and are still expecting operating income growth in the 8% to 10% range, excluding any tariff impact.

We are currently estimating a net impact of

$100 million to $150 million to fiscal 2025 operating margin based on current tariff policy. I'll take you through the details of our outlook shortly. Now turning to first-quarter results. Net sales of $3.5 billion increased 2% year over year with comparable sales up 2% as well. By brand, starting with Old Navy, net sales were $2 billion, up 3% versus last year with comparable sales up 3%. Old Navy's consistent delivery and execution were notable as they continue to win in key categories like active and denim while gaining share. Turning to the Gap brand, net sales of $724 million were up 5% versus last year, and comparable sales were up 5%. Gap continued to execute the brand reinvigoration playbook with excellence, driving continued momentum and achieving positive comp sales for the last six quarters. Banana Republic net sales of $428 million were down 3% year over year, with comparable sales flat. We are encouraged by the early signs of progress in our women's performance. Athleta net sales of $308 million decreased 6% versus last year, and comparable sales were down 8%. As Richard mentioned, we're working to reset the brand this year and have more work to do to improve product and marketing, which will take some time. Let's continue with the balance of the P&L. Gross margin of 41.8% increased 60 basis points last year ahead of our expectations. Merchandise margin was flat, with the remaining 60 basis points of expansion driven by rod leverage. SG&A was $1.2 billion in the quarter, flat compared to last year as we demonstrate continued rigor in our expense management. SG&A as a percentage of net sales was 34.3%, leveraging 90 basis points versus last year, ahead of our expectations. First-quarter operating margin of 7.5% improved 140 basis points compared to last year. Earnings per share in the quarter were $0.51, up 24% versus last year's earnings per share of $0.41. Now turning to the balance sheet and cash flow. End-of-quarter inventory levels were up 7% year over year, primarily as a result of earlier receipts and fast transit times. We remain committed to our disciplined inventory management principles, and we believe we ended the quarter with the right inventory composition. We ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $2.2 billion, an increase of 28% from last year, further demonstrating the rigor we've put into managing the business. Capital expenditures in the quarter were $83 million, in line with the capital allocation framework I outlined on our fourth-quarter call. We returned approximately $131 million to shareholders in Q1 in the form of dividends and share repurchases. More specifically, we paid $61 million to shareholders in the form of dividends, and the board recently approved a second-quarter dividend of 16.5¢ per share. We also repurchased 4 million shares during the quarter for approximately $70 million. It's important to note that we have $331 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization, as we proactively and opportunistically achieve our goal of offsetting dilution. Our strong balance sheet provides the foundation to focus on capital allocation with the goal of enhancing long-term shareholder value. In this dynamic environment, this also allows us to be apprised of the levers we pull to mitigate potential headwinds while remaining mindful of pursuing opportunities for growth. Now turning to our outlook for fiscal 2025. We've been operating in a highly dynamic backdrop for the last few years, and we're expecting the same for the balance of fiscal 2025. Our outlook assumes a relatively consistent macroeconomic environment but acknowledges the potential for increasing uncertainties related to consumer behavior and global economic and geopolitical conditions. As a result, we continue to take a balanced view with our guidance and remain focused on controlling the controllables. Today, I'll provide a fiscal 2025 outlook that does not include tariffs, and then separately quantify the potential impact of trade policy on our profits, should current policies remain. Our outlook continues to expect net sales to be up 1% to 2% year over year. This outlook assumes ongoing strength at Old Navy and Gap, stabilizing performance at Banana Republic, and a longer recovery timeline at Athleta. We believe great brands can win in any environment. Moving to gross margin, we continue to expect underlying gross margin to expand slightly year over year, with roughly equal amounts coming from rod leverage and merchandise margin. Turning to SG&A, we continue to expect SG&A to leverage slightly for the full year. As discussed on last quarter's call, we're driving continuous improvement in the cost structure of the company as we rigorously drive savings in our core operations through efficiency and effectiveness. Our outlook continues to reflect the approximately $150 million in cost savings and efficiencies we expect to achieve this year through better operations. We remain committed to reinvesting a portion of the $150 million of efficiencies into future growth projects. As we pursue the long-term success of the company, we have contemplated whether to delay these strategic investments in the face of trade policy headwinds, but between our foundational execution and balance sheet strength, we believe the pursuit of these initiatives remains important to the long-term momentum of the company. Select examples of these initiatives are product-to-market capabilities that will build localization and speed, in addition to foundational capabilities like RFID and AI. A portion of these savings will also offset continued inflation. Finally, for fiscal 2025, we expect underlying operating income growth of approximately 8% to 10% for the full year. Now regarding tariffs, as I mentioned previously, given the dynamic nature of trade policy, our fiscal 2025 outlook does not reflect the potential effect of tariffs. However, based on what we know today, if current tariffs of 30% on most imports from China and 10% on most imports from other countries remain for the balance of the year, we estimate a gross incremental cost of approximately $250 million to $300 million. We currently have strategies to mitigate more than half of that amount. After considering our mitigation strategies, we estimate a remaining net impact of about $100 million to $150 million to fiscal 2025 operating income, primarily weighted to the back half of the year. As a global leader with the benefit of scale, we are moving swiftly with our mitigation plans, which include adjustments to our sourcing, manufacturing, and assortments. We remain committed to evaluating the remaining levers we have at our disposal to achieve further mitigation. Importantly, we're taking a long-term view as we continue to mitigate these headwinds, rather than responding with short-term decisions that could compromise the integrity of our strategy. This is an early view, and trade policy remains dynamic, so we will continue to reassess and refine our approach as future developments arise. We are being even more rigorous in our approach to inventory for the balance of the year. We've further tightened the way we purchase unit inventory for the second half of the year to ensure maximum flexibility for various demand scenarios and to enable us to be more responsive to consumer demand. We continue to expect capital expenditures of $600 million for the year as we utilize our strong balance sheet to invest in organic opportunities for value creation that we see in our business. Now let me share some color on our outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2025. It's important to note that we estimate minimal impact to our Q2 outlook based on currently enacted tariffs. We expect second-quarter net sales to be roughly flat year over year. This contemplates our solid quarter-to-date performance and reflects a one-percentage point impact related to the lapping of the benefit we saw last year from the incremental revenue related to our credit card agreement, which we do not expect to recur this year. We expect second-quarter gross margin to be similar to our first-quarter gross margin. This outlook reflects the impact from lapping last year's credit card benefit, which is the primary driver of the implied year-over-year decline. Lastly, we are planning for second-quarter SG&A to leverage slightly versus last year. In closing, I'm incredibly proud of the strong first-quarter performance, which reflects disciplined execution and underscores the progress we are making. While tariffs have the potential to impose new costs, we remain focused on controlling the controllables and executing our strategic priorities, which are driving results. We remain committed to building on this momentum as we work toward becoming a high-performing company that delivers sustainable, profitable growth and long-term value for our shareholders. With that, we'll open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, for those analysts who wish to participate in the question and answer session, you may now press 1 to enter the queue. Our first question will come from Alex Straton from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 4

Congrats on a nice quarter. I wanted to focus on tariffs here. You said you can mitigate more than half of the impact. And I'm just curious, is there room for that to be bigger both this year and then over time? It sounds like maybe that's the case given your reinvestment commentary. Thanks a lot.

Thanks, Alex. First of all, thank you for the shout-out on the quarter. We're really pleased with the progress and the results. And I'm happy to address the tariff question upfront. What I would say is, first off, you know, Katrina and I will take this, but like any business, we're navigating complexity, and in this case, it's tariffs. And it's our responsibility to do so without compromising the long-term integrity of our strategy and, most importantly, the customer value proposition. So we've already developed strategies to mitigate over half of the anticipated impact of tariffs. This has been done through thoughtful adjustments to sourcing, manufacturing, assortments, and we also remain committed to achieving additional mitigation over time. Now, we've also shared with you that we've been diversifying our sourcing footprint for several years. China, for example, used to be one of our top sourcing countries, and we now expect it to be less than 3% by the end of this year. By the end of 2026, we're planning for no country to account for more than 25%. So there's a lot more information to unpack; I'm going to pass it to Katrina to talk about our outlook and the estimated tariff impact.

Great, and thanks, Alex. Our goal, first and foremost, in providing the outlook we provided today was transparency. We were very purposeful in separating the outlook from the estimated tariff impact. We believe that the outlook provides a perspective on the underlying health of the business, which is working, and the estimated impact of current tariffs, which could still change. I think last night's news is a good example of where we're still trying to see where this lands. The first half of 2025 is largely unimpacted by current tariffs. There was no impact in Q1. Very minimal impact to Q2. The estimated tariff impact we provided today is primarily weighted to the second half, and much of that will be determined with shipping that occurs late in the second quarter and beyond. Regarding the actual tariff impact, if current tariffs of 30% on most imports from China and 10% on most imports from other countries remain for the balance of the year, we have estimated a gross incremental cost of $250 million to $300 million. As noted, we've already swiftly put in place strategies to mitigate more than half of that amount. Considering those mitigation strategies, we have a remaining net impact of $100 million to $150 million to fiscal 2025. Given we'll know more coming out of the July 9 milestone and pending court decisions, we expect to provide more perspective on the remainder of the year on our next call. Meanwhile, we expect to mitigate the impact over time. We plan to utilize the same levers we've discussed, including adjustments to sourcing, manufacturing, and assortments. As Richard said, we're committed to the long-term strategy even as we navigate this short-term disruption.

Speaker 4

That's super helpful. Good luck.

Thank you. The next question is from Adrienne Yih from Barclays.

Speaker 5

Good afternoon and congratulations on the quarter and the Gap brand in particular from where I sit. It looked like they were really driving full-price selling. So my first question, Richard, is on the Gap brand. It seems like you are starting to have moments whether they're the collaborations where you can really drive full price and then inquire the moments that we still do often see sort of box off or purchase off. And I know you've talked about kind of maintaining the balance between providing value and then having these kind of full-price moments. Can you talk about kind of your success in getting sort of more Gen Z, more millennial, and then striking that fine balance? And at what point, what do you need to see to start pulling back more on these sort of, like, box-off promos? Thank you.

So, Adrienne, thank you so much for the callout of the quarter, but in particular, the Gap brand, which we collectively are really proud of the progress we've been making. They've done an incredible job executing with clarity and consistency our brand reinvigoration playbook. As you note, Q1 comps accelerating to 5% while achieving the eighth consecutive quarter of market share gains is really proving that momentum is building. The strong performance has been fueled by innovation in product, style, product newness, and compelling marketing with a social-first approach. Both men's and women's gained share in the quarter, and our brand campaigns and the collaborations you mentioned are also attracting a new generation to Gap. Now, we're doing this while we're also reinforcing the brand to those who have loved us for years. Examples of this, the recent campaign featuring Parker Posey resonated with consumers across all generations, and its unique creative format is a great example of how we're bridging the generation gap. The collaborations we've been working on, like Harlem Fashion Row, DOWEN, and the recent launch of Gap Studio, have generated real excitement for the brand, also showing that we can drive strong full-price sell-through, demonstrating the brand's pricing power. It's a very exciting moment for the brand, and with the strength of our playbook in action, the power of the brand is performing wonderfully. We believe that the Gap brand is well-positioned to continue the momentum.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. And, Katrina, my follow-up is on the mitigation practices that are already in play. Kind of at that number, the gross number, if you were to mitigate that, it's seemingly kind of implying a low to mid-single-digit price increase if you're just using that. I didn't hear you talk about price increases as one of the things that you had already been undergoing. And, certainly, you wouldn't do that until later in the year. So I'm wondering where pricing falls into the mitigation strategies. Is it in there already? Thank you.

So, Adrienne, let me just take that, and if Katrina wants to elaborate. But we're approaching our pricing strategy as we always do. We consider all the various inputs while maintaining the overall value proposition for our consumers. Based on what we know today, we do not expect there to be meaningful price impacts to our consumer. We truly believe that strong brands can win in any market. Looking ahead, we see the potential for further market share opportunity. We're going to continue watching trade developments, consumer behavior, and competition closely, but at this particular time, we're approaching our pricing strategy as we always do.

Speaker 5

Fantastic. Best of luck. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, please limit your questions to one per participant. Up next is Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

Speaker 6

Great. Thanks. So, Richard, at the Gap brand, could you speak to new customer acquisition as you comp the comp and drivers of the consistency that you're now seeing at Old Navy? Just any change in momentum at either brand so far in May? And then Katrina, I guess excluding tariffs, is this year's outlook for 8% to 10% operating income growth on 1% to 2% sales? Is that a reasonable multiyear model algorithm? And lastly, is there any reason multiyear that you can't mitigate the full tariff impact through sourcing diversification?

So, Matthew, thank you. We'll tackle that question as a team. I think the first part of that, as I mentioned, we really are bridging the generation gap, particularly with the Gap brand. Our recent campaigns are designed to attract all generations through music, big ideas, and amplifying these through what we'll call fashion-tainment marketing. The collaborations that we've been driving have proof points of that. New customer acquisition is increasing. We also saw through the collaborations that there is a halo effect, and the core brand is driving at least 25% of that basket. So the collaborations, while driving new traffic and new volume, 25% of that basket includes core products. We have great proof points both qualitatively and quantitatively that our strategy is working. Now on Old Navy, which is important to mention, we delivered really strong comps for the quarter, with a 3% increase. It's also our ninth consecutive quarter of market share gains, again proving the consistency in the execution. We called out categories like active and denim, where we've been very intentional about pursuing a leadership position, and it's appearing in the results. Our active business continues to grow quarter after quarter. We're ranked as the number five player in the category, continuing to gain share as recently as this quarter. You might have noticed we launched a new segment called Studio Smooth; the collection outperformed our expectations, which marks another step forward in the category. On Tuesday, we introduced our new campaign Old Navy, New Moves. It was a great, exciting campaign that supports the activewear strategy. It's culturally relevant marketing that speaks directly to the brand playbook; it's a clear example of how we're accelerating Old Navy's adoption of the new brand playbook. We're leveraging big product ideas, amplifying them with storytelling, and ultimately connecting to the consumer. It's all about bridging the generation gap. We've got Lindsay Lohan, Dylan Efron, Quinlan Blackwell, and even Charo in the campaign. It just launched Tuesday and is getting great traction. Moreover, denim continues to be a significant category standout for us. We've gained share in that category and secured our position as the fourth-largest adult denim brand in the US. We've also observed a positive response to our occasion dress collection, which had a strong full-price sell-through, serving as an excellent example of pricing power. When you offer great products, great style, and great value, customers notice. These are foundational elements we've established in our portfolio, particularly Old Navy, underpinning the brand's performance, and it's giving us real confidence that we will continue to deliver in 2025. I will pass it over to Katrina to answer the second part of your question.

Yeah. So, Matt, I think it's fair to say that our longer-term economic model is for us to deliver somewhere in that low to mid-single-digit sales growth range, with operating margin that grows in the high single-digit range. When you combine that with the return of cash to shareholders, you get a very nice top-tier TSR. So that algorithm is one we look to repeat over time. Any reason over the multiyear that you can't impact mitigate? No. I don't think so. I mean, some of the momentum in the business is a great way to start to offset, and we're working on that through our reinvigoration. We continue to stay very focused on efficiencies within the cost structure of the company. We have a track record of that and will stay committed to it. Lastly, I spoke to some of the investments that we're committed to because they are important for the momentum going forward. Many of those initiatives like AI, RFID, and some of the product market capabilities are intended to help shore up margins over time. That's part of the reason we remain committed to them in the near term, so we can continue to make progress over the long term.

Speaker 6

That's really great color. Best of luck.

Thank you.

Operator

Up next, we'll hear from Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Good afternoon. Can you talk about the puts and takes driving the flat merchandise margin this quarter? And then, which brands or strategies lead to the up in the remainder of the year to hit your guidance for merchandise margin?

So, Lorraine, I think on merchandise margins, for Q1, we were very proud that we were able to expand merchandise margins by 60 basis points. That was underlying merch margins of relatively flat, holding onto many of the gains we got over the last few years. The margin expansion primarily came from rod. Our brands are resonating well, allowing us to gain relevance and have market share gains along with giving us pricing power in the market. As we look to Q2, we guided to margins to be similar to Q1. That implies a year-over-year decline, driven by the lapping of last year's credit card benefit, which was a primary driver of some of the increases last year. As we encounter that, it results in a decline year-over-year. The underlying merchandise margins are expected to remain flat, and looking out to the full year, we continue to expect underlying gross margins to expand slightly, with roughly equal amounts coming from rod leverage and merchandise margin expansion.

Operator

The next question will come from Dana Telsey, Telsey Group.

Speaker 8

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. You think about the solid progress that you've made in both Gap and Old Navy, on the product side and also the customer appeal side, how are you thinking about Banana Republic and Athleta and what happens with anything different with tariffs with them versus the other brands? And attracting new customers. And lastly, just on store and online sales, what did you see by brand traffic in each of them? Does it differ at all? How are you seeing the consumer convert? Thank you.

Dana, thanks for the question. I'm happy to talk about Banana Republic and Athleta. I'm really encouraged by the ongoing progress that we've made in Banana Republic. We've also talked about focusing on reestablishing the brand by fixing fundamentals; we see great new proof points emerging. Delivering a flat comp in the quarter, we're leaning much more heavily into classics, and our precise assortments and fit are resonating as we work to rebuild trust with our customer. Men's continued to perform well, and we've been pleased by improving women's performance. We've focused on greater alignment in design and merchandising across both genders, which we believe will cultivate a broader appeal over time. A highlight from the quarter was the White Lotus collaboration, demonstrating the clarity of our positioning as a modern Explorer brand. It's a great example of our playbook in action. We'll continue to strengthen the foundation at Banana, and with each passing quarter, we're seeing clearer signs of brand progress and customer engagement, giving us confidence that the brand is indeed on the right path forward. Regarding Athleta, it's important to say, has a valuable place in our portfolio and in the industry. We've been resetting the brand to compete more effectively in the marketplace. We soon expect this year to be choppy as we continue to focus on fixing the fundamentals. This has been reflected in the outlook we provided today. We've made progress with the brand in 2024, primarily through a lot of discipline and rigor, and this is showing up in better profitability. However, what we need to do to break through is get our product and marketing back to top-line growth. We're working through what we shared last quarter, which was an over-rotation towards a new, more trend-forward customer. We've successfully brought new customers into the brand; we saw them in the quarter, but we still don't have enough compelling products to appeal to our large existing customer base, and that's reflecting in the brand's performance. We are investing in design talent and working to find the right balance across the assortment. It will take some time, but we're committed to taking the necessary steps to reset the brand. Regarding channel strategy, our goal is always to be where our consumers are. Whether that's in our stores or through a digital dialogue. We've focused on cultivating the best experience across every touchpoint - it is a work in progress, but we're making progress. This quarter, we saw store sales flat and a 6% growth in our online business. This represents about 39% of our total net sales, demonstrating the strength of our digital business. Today, The Gap, Inc. is the number one branded apparel e-commerce business in the US. We had nearly 1.5 billion visitors in the last twelve months, representing an extraordinary continued growth opportunity for us. We're obviously going to continue enhancing and expanding our e-commerce capabilities while creating more compelling customer experiences but not at the expense of our stores. We love our stores. They are important for customers to experience our brands. They bring our product, storytelling, and service to life in ways that digital can't. With a company operating a fleet of 2,500 stores, we're optimizing our retail footprint, enhancing customer experiences, and testing new formats. We believe both channels represent great growth opportunities, and we will continue updating you on both channels and our progress.

Operator

The next question will come from Paul Lejuez, Citigroup.

Speaker 9

Hey, thanks, guys. Can you talk about the comp drivers by brand, traffic, ticket? Curious what you saw on AUR. Also, just on the Old Navy business, can you quantify where the market share gains are coming from an age demographic perspective? Thanks.

As I mentioned on Old Navy, we've been gaining market share overall for the ninth consecutive quarter. We're seeing gains primarily, as I've called out, in the strategic intended categories, particularly denim and also active. We've made progress across many categories overall, dresses in particular, with our occasion launch, and we are very pleased with the overall progress we're making as we look at total market share. One important note from a consumer perspective is that we saw our income cohorts responding well to the Old Navy proposition. We expanded share in both top income and bottom income cohorts. Our strong value proposition appeals to a wide range of consumers. As we grow more relevant, we're driving more style, design, and narratives in our storytelling; we see a top income cohort migrate into the Old Navy brand. That was also seen on Gap, where it gained share in the top and middle cohorts. Looking at the bigger picture, we recognize that our portfolio is appealing to a diverse range of consumers. It gives us wonderful flexibility in this environment, where we have a stronger portfolio of brands that resonates across multiple cohorts and generations. It's our job to continue making great products, providing great styles, maintaining great quality, keeping the value proposition, and growing our market presence. We are pleased with share gains across our brands and particularly with the categories we seek to grow strategically.

As for comp drivers in the quarter, we were pleased to see both traffic and average transactions up in the quarter, which drove the positive comp.

Speaker 9

So, Katrina, within the transactions, anything on AUR or CPT?

AUR was down modestly, but is primarily due to increased promotional activity at Athleta.

Speaker 9

Yeah. Thank you. Good luck.

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Ike Boruchow from Wells Fargo.

Speaker 10

Katrina and Richard. Just a gross margin question. Katrina, can you just do us a favor and maybe just quantify what that margin headwind is that, you know, that you have from the year-over-year credit card issue in the second quarter? And then, I know you don't want to get into the details on the numbers, but just at a high level, if we excluded the tariffs based on your guidance for gross margin, are you effectively guiding the back half grosses flat? And then if we put in the tariff that seems like it should hit but isn't in the guide, is that roughly like a 50 basis points headwind? So if you put it in, if you take it out, it's flat. If you put it in, it's down 50. Just ballpark, is that fair?

To take the first one first, Ike, for gross margin in the second quarter, we've provided an outlook stating that gross margin in Q2 would be similar to our first-quarter gross margin. That implies somewhere in that 60 basis point decline, largely attributable to the credit card impact from last year that we are lapping this year and don't expect to obtain. Without the credit card impact, yes, margins would be flat to slightly leverage. As we provided our guidance, we firmly believe that the underlying impact to gross margin for the year will achieve slight leverage. We indicated that it was almost equal parts rod leverage and merchandise margin leverage. Separately, as we provide the $100 to $150 million of potential tariff impact, we’ll realize more in Q2 as we see policies settle, and we’ll update what that means. By holding the $100 to $150 million on the year and depending on what revenue you're considering, you’ll estimate somewhere in that 80 to 90 basis point annual headwind. I'll let you do the back half calculations. But we’ll keep you posted. Again, it’s dynamic, and we're continuing to work on the mitigation, as well as waiting for clarity on policy, which remains uncertain.

Thank you.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Ike.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, the final question today comes from Simeon Siegel from BMO Capital Markets.

Speaker 11

Thanks, Richard and team. Obviously, fantastic job on the resonating marketing. How are you thinking about marketing spend for the year? And I guess, how are you judging the success of the campaigns? Should they be driving units? If so, is it new customers versus getting deeper with existing? Is it ability to take higher prices, general awareness, media impressions, etc.? Just curious how you’re gauging what a successful campaign should look like, and how you're tracking them. Thank you.

Thanks, Simeon. I appreciate that. Marketing is a much more complex function than it has been in the past. We've been working very hard to drive new narratives and put our brands back in the cultural conversation. As I've often stated, our job is to be everywhere our consumer is with the right creative messaging. Over time, as we've initiated our reinvigoration playbook, we're starting to see that momentum manifest. It's evidenced by our performance in the first quarter. Our marketing spend has actually reduced, yet we're generating more revenue and increased relevance. This speaks to the creative conversation we are beginning to foster, and we believe we're on the right track; the metrics are substantiating it. As we become more effective and efficient with our spend, we start to see confidence in our conviction. New assets created based on data and consumer insights are driving new customer acquisition; we see our house file increase along with a new generation of customers. The assets we develop show great traction, and we plan to accelerate what's working. We are testing and learning along the way with a specific strategic focus on social media content, which is the number one platform for our consumers by time spent and is the most common product discovery methodology among Gen Z and millennials. This is indeed early days. We are testing new tactics, striving for a more balanced funnel strategy over time, but as I reflect on the progress we've made, the identities we're establishing that differentiate our portfolio, I'm very pleased with the progress, and the metrics are speaking for themselves. We'll continue to work hard at it; ultimately, becoming more effective and efficient with better creative and better medium mix models.

Speaker 11

That's great. Thanks. And then, Katrina, what's a great way to think about where rod leverages what comp is? It just seems impressive to achieve 60 bps of leverage on a 2% growth. Any clarification would be helpful. Thank you.

Certainly. We've done extensive work on rod, as you're aware, and closed 350 underproductive stores over the last few years. So with that, rod will leverage for the full year on any positive sales growth.

Speaker 11

Great. Thanks a lot, guys. Best of luck for the rest of the year.

Thank you so much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question and answer session. That does conclude today's conference. We would like to thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.