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Grupo Financiero Galicia SA Q2 FY2025 Earnings Call

Grupo Financiero Galicia SA (GGAL)

Earnings Call FY2025 Q2 Call date: 2025-06-30 Concluded

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Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Grupo Financiero Galicia Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded, and the replay will be available on the company's website at gfgsa.com. Some of the statements made during this conference call will be forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ significantly from those expressed. Investors should be aware of events related to the macroeconomic environment, the financial industry, and other factors that could cause results to differ considerably from the forward-looking statements. Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Pablo Firvida, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Sophia. Good morning, and welcome to this conference call. I will make a quick speech I'm here with Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro, CFO of Grupo and of the bank. Later, he will make some additional comments. And of course, we will be both available for Q&A. According to the monthly indicator for economic activity, EMAE, the Argentina economy recorded a 6.4% year-over-year increase during June, reaching an expansion of 6.2% during the first half of 2025. During the second quarter, the primary surplus reached 0.4% of GDP and the overall surplus was 0.2% of GDP, explained by primary revenues increasing 37.7% year-over-year, whereas primary spending rose 42.1%. During the first 7 months of 2025, the primary balance stood at 1.1% of GDP, while the financial balance amounted to 0.3% of GDP. The National Consumer Price Index accumulated a 6% increase during the second quarter of 2025 and a 17.3% year-to-date increase as of July. Between May and July, monthly inflation slipped below 2% threshold. In July, monthly inflation stood at 1.9% and accumulating 36.6% in year-over-year terms. The monetary base increased by ARS 6.6 trillion in the quarter, recording an 84.2% increase in year-over-year terms. On April 11, 2025, the Central Bank implemented a foreign exchange bank system within which the exchange rate may fluctuate freely. These bands were initially set between ARS 1,000 per dollar and ARS 1,400 per dollar and are adjusted monthly at a rate of minus 1% for the lower bound and plus 1% for the upper bound. The exchange rate averaged ARS 1,181 per dollar in June 2025, a 23.5% devaluation in year-over-year terms. During the first half of 2025, the benchmark interest rate was set by the Central Bank. However, on July 10, the monetary authority ceased offering interest rate caps, and the interest rate is currently determined endogenously by the market, in line with the regime focus on monetary aggregates. In June 2025, the average rate on peso-denominated private sector time deposits for up to 59 days stood at 32.2%, 1.1 percentage points below the June 2024 average. Following the change in monetary policy, in mid-July, interest rates increased and ended the month at 37.4%. Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS 89.1 trillion in June, increasing by 10.6% during the quarter and 69.1% in the last 12 months. Time deposits in pesos rose 5.3% during the quarter and 93% in the year, while peso-denominated transactional deposits increased 16.4% during the second quarter and 49.6% in year-over-year terms. Private sector dollar-denominated deposits amounted to $30.4 billion in June 2025, increasing 2.5% during the quarter and 71.8% in the last 12 months. Peso-denominated loans to the private sector averaged ARS 72.3 trillion in June, showing a 19% quarterly increase and a 181.7% year-over-year expansion. Private sector dollar-denominated loans amounted to $15.8 billion, recording a 12.1% quarterly growth and a 147.3% annual increase. Turning now to Grupo Financiero Galicia. I would like to mention that at the end of June, we successfully finished the merger with Galicia Más, former HSBC in Argentina. We unified the banking unit with Banco Galicia, the mutual fund management with Galicia Asset Management and the insurance companies with Galicia Seguros. The change for the clients was very smooth with no frictions, and we grew around 2.5% in market share of both loans and deposits. For comparison purposes, figures for the first quarter of 2025 include the balances of the merged companies, while the figures of the second quarter of 2024 are not fully comparable as they do not include any HSBC figures. Going now to the results for the quarter. Net income amounted to ARS 173 billion, 70% lower from the year ago quarter. The result comes from profits from Banco Galicia for ARS 98 billion, from Naranja X for ARS 32 billion, from Galicia Asset Management for ARS 27 billion, and from Galicia Seguros for ARS 13 billion. This profit represented a 1.9% annualized return on average assets and a 9.5% return on average shareholders' equity. The result from Banco Galicia was negatively affected by the increase in the cost of risk associated with the growth of the loan book and the increase in the nonperforming loans in the retail segment, particularly in personal loans and credit card financing. The net income for the quarter was 76% lower than in the same quarter of 2024 due to a 67% lower operating result. This was primarily a consequence of a 40% decrease in net operating income as net interest income decreased 36%. Net results from financial instruments were down 37%, and loan loss provisions increased 192%, which were partially offset by a 30% growth of net fee income. Average interest-earning assets reached ARS 17.3 trillion, 38% higher than in the same quarter of 2024, primarily due to a 117% increase of the average portfolio of loans in pesos and a 262% higher dollar-denominated loan portfolio, partially offset by a 94% reduction in the average balance of other interest-earning assets in pesos. In the same period, its yield decreased 35 percentage points, reaching 37.4%. Interest-bearing liabilities increased 74% from June 2024, amounting to ARS 14.8 trillion, primarily due to the increase in time deposits in pesos and of savings accounts in dollars. During this period, its cost decreased 15 percentage points to 15.6%. Net interest income decreased 36% when compared to the second quarter of 2024. This was the result of a 29% decrease in interest income because of a 62% lower interest on government securities and a 99% lower interest on repo transactions, together with a 13% decrease in interest expenses due to a 6% lower interest on time deposits and a 27% lower interest on other deposits. Net fee income increased 30% from June 2024 due to a 51% higher income from credit card fees and a 28% from fees on deposits. Net income from financial instruments decreased 37% due to a 53% lower result from government securities. Gains from FX quotation difference were 12% lower from the year ago quarter, including the results from foreign currency trading. It is worth mentioning that during April, many regulations that limited access to the FX market were removed mainly for individuals, and thus, FX trading increased significantly, growing 153% when compared to the first quarter of this year. Other operating income increased 150% in the quarter, mainly due to the 290% increase in other adjustments and interest on miscellaneous receivables and of 145% in other operating income. Provision for loan losses increased 192% because of the growth of the financing portfolio and an increase in delinquency that is circumscribed to the portfolio of personal loans and credit card financing to individuals. Personnel expenses were 3% lower than a year before. It is worth to mention that in the first quarter, we began to use the provision for restructuring expenses established in the fourth quarter of last year. Administrative expenses increased 35% due to a 77% increase of expenses for maintenance and repair of goods and IT and a 62% increase of hired administrative services. Other operating expenses increased 13% due to a 12% higher turnover tax related to financial operations. Results from the monetary position decreased 56% year-over-year following the declining evolution of inflation. The income tax charge was 75% lower than in the year ago quarter due to lower operating results. The bank's financing to the private sector reached ARS 16.9 trillion at the end of the quarter, up 123% in the last 12 months with peso financing increasing 106% and dollar- denominated financing growing 181%, while by credit line, promissory notes increased 92%, credit card financing 66%, and personal loans 201%. Net exposure to the public sector decreased 33% year-over-year, primarily due to the 39% decrease in government securities adjusted by CPI at amortized cost and to the 99% reduction of repo transactions with the Central Bank. This exposure represented 19% of total assets as of the end of the quarter compared to 42% of the year before. Deposits reached ARS 19.9 trillion, 72% higher than a year before, mainly due to a 162% increase in savings accounts in dollars, a 76% increase in time deposits in pesos, and a 47% increase in peso-denominated checking accounts. The bank's estimated market share of loans to the private sector was 14.5%, 260 basis points higher than at the end of the year ago quarter, and the market share of deposits from the private sector was 16%, 550 basis points higher than in the same quarter of 2024. The bank's liquid assets represented 94.3% of transactional deposits and 65.2% of total deposits compared to 147.7% and 101.5%, respectively, from a year before. Regarding asset quality, the ratio of nonperforming loans to total financing ended the quarter at 4.4%, recording a 240 basis points deterioration as compared to the 2% of the second quarter of the prior year. And as I mentioned before, the deterioration is limited to the personal loans and credit card financing portfolios. At the same time, the coverage with allowances reached 117.9%, down 42.4 percentage points from the 160.3% recorded a year ago. As of the end of June 2025, the bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 23.7%, decreasing 510 basis points from the end of the same quarter of 2024, while the Tier 1 ratio was 23.2%, down 460 basis points during the same period. In summary, in a challenging and volatile political and macro environment, Grupo Financiero Galicia was able to keep liquidity, solvency and profitability metrics at healthy levels, adapt its strategy for credit granting to the new context in order to prioritize lower risk segments and to revert the trend of deterioration in asset quality, and completed a very fast and successful integration with Galicia Más. Lastly, on August 6, the Board of Directors of Banco Galicia elected Diego Rivas as CFO of the bank, while Fabián Kon will remain as the CEO of Grupo Galicia. This will be implemented as of September 1. Now I would like to give the word to Gonzalo Fernandez Covaro for additional remarks.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Pablo. Hi, everyone. Well, regarding how we see the rest of the year, as you know, the government has tightened its monetary policy, increasing minimum liquidity requirements, and that has generated a significant increase in short-term interest rates together with high volatility. The interest rate has increased from 30% levels to 60% levels in a very short period of time. This change in interest rates is impacting the local financial system as our funding is very short term, so it reprices very fast, but assets are taking more time to reprice as now we have more loans in our asset composition. We are seeing a margin compression in the third quarter that is expected to be temporal and could finish after elections once the political side is clear, but it's something that we cannot define when this will stabilize and change again. Of course, this is something we didn't expect a couple of months ago, and we are still evaluating the impact as the rate is very volatile and changed significantly from one day to the other. And also, we have been having new regulations and changes in minimum liquidity requirements in a short period of time. On the other hand, as we have been explaining in prior calls, the portfolio performance of consumer lending in Argentina has deteriorated. It's a market issue as people need to get used to managing credit in a low inflation environment coming from negative interest rates to very positive interest rates. Also, the effect of having lower disposable income as utility prices went up. We are expecting stabilization of the NPLs on the consumer lending by the end of the third quarter. We started to see a lower or a slower deterioration and stabilization at the end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth quarter. As we also have told in prior calls, we have implemented many changes in our loan origination, collections, and changing credit limits that are being successful, but it takes some time to fully impact the portfolios. Considering these effects, we expect our ROE to be in the range of 9% to 11% for 2025. To give also more context, this guidance does not include any additional restructuring cost one-time that we may have in the second half. As we have been anticipating in all the calls and presentations, we had implemented the voluntary redundancy program that we implemented to achieve the structure rightsizing after the HSBC acquisition, and it's been very successful. As you can see in our press release, we already made a significant headcount reduction from the first quarter to the second quarter. If this continues, it could imply additional one-time expenses in the second half of the year as the provision that we booked last year may not be enough. We expect that the impact could go up to 2 points of ROE that are not included in the guidance that I just mentioned if all eligible people sign up for the program. If this happens, of course, it's excellent news for us as we will achieve our rightsizing by year-end, much better than what we expected at the beginning of the year with a one-time P&L impact that will not repeat in the future. So as we said, that's something that we don't know if it will happen, but the pace that the program is happening may infer that, that could happen. As we said in prior calls, we consider this year a transition year where we finished the HSBC integration, rightsized the structure, grew and stabilized portfolio performance; we can start 2026 with all our potential and deliver our sustainable ROEs. So those were the remarks I wanted to make. So I open for questions, if you want.

Speaker 1

Yes. Thank you, Gonzalo. We are now ready to answer the questions that you may have.

Operator

Our first question comes from Brian Flores with Citi.

Speaker 3

Gonzalo, a follow-up on the comments you made on the guidance. So 9% to 11% represents any adjustments to the previously guided ranges for loan growth and deposits? I think that's maybe the first question. If I may, I'll ask the second one after that one.

Speaker 2

Yes, loan growth could be around 40% now, down from the previously discussed 50%. This change is partly due to the current volatility, which has slowed demand, along with our efforts to stabilize consumer lending and reduce activity in the mortgage sector due to a lack of securitization in the market. Therefore, we expect lending growth to be around 30% to 40%, and deposits to grow by approximately 30% to 35%.

Speaker 3

Perfect. Super clear. And then I wanted to ask you a bit on capital, right? Because you saw an improvement quarter-over-quarter. Just wanted to understand, Gonzalo, where does this improvement come from given that your pace of growth is still very relevant? And then maybe connecting to that question, it seems that for ROE to improve going forward, you might need to relever your balance sheet. So at some point, is paying more dividends on the cards going forward?

Speaker 2

Sorry, paying more dividends, I couldn't understand that last sentence.

Speaker 3

No, with the capital that you have, is more dividends at some point...

Speaker 2

Hi Brian, the increase in the capital ratio is due to the merger of the two banks. Previously, the ratio we reported last quarter was solely for Banco Galicia. We chose not to restate that in the press release because it is a regulatory metric, and we wanted to avoid combining figures that weren't presented for regulatory purposes. After merging the two banks, the new capital ratio is close to 24%. We also mentioned in previous calls that we estimated the capital ratio post-integration would be around 24%. Galicia Más, HSBC has an even stronger capital ratio. The reason for the increase is that before, in the first quarter, it was only Banco Galicia reflected in the press release. Looking ahead, we do analyze and assess our dividend policy, and we will revisit that closer to year-end for next year. We believe there are still many efficiencies we can achieve that will benefit our return on equity. Even if margins decline if Argentina stabilizes, non-performing loans should also stabilize at lower levels. Regarding expenses, this year we anticipate that, if everything goes as planned, we may only need one-third of the costs from the former HSBC next year. Our operating expenses for next year will only be 30% of what HSBC had annually. This year’s savings have primarily been realized on a monthly basis, with most savings expected in the second half of the year. We aim to strike the best balance between net income growth and dividends while considering that we see substantial potential for lending growth in Argentina. We want to ensure we have sufficient capital to support that growth. We will continue to evaluate this and make adjustments if we believe it's the right course of action.

Speaker 3

That was super helpful. And if I may, just very quickly on this HSBC integration, you mentioned 2 points of ROE would still be pending. So is this, if I'm understanding correctly, not considered within the guidance, but could be, let's say, an upside if...

Speaker 2

What I mentioned is that we don't know the exact outcome, but if all eligible individuals enroll in the program, this could lead to a one-time expense that might decrease ROE by up to 2 points. However, this would be a one-time cost and would not impact future income in a recurring manner in the reported P&L. If it occurs, it would negatively affect us due to the additional one-time expense, but we would benefit from savings in the coming years.

Operator

Next question from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

Speaker 4

I want to delve deeper into the asset quality discussion. Given the low leverage, Argentina remains a growth story with increasing credit penetration relative to GDP. I noticed the rapid deterioration in retail non-performing loans, which seems to be an industry-wide issue. The explanation about disposable income and people's adaptation to real interest rates was clear, but I still have some concerns. Could you elaborate on which income classes are most affected? Are you considering adjusting your strategy, perhaps by requiring more collateral? I understand that this pertains to credit cards and personal loans, which can be complicated. My main concern is the challenges on the funding side, as you've mentioned. If you reduce personal loans, clients may shift to commercial loans, which could put additional pressure on margins since commercial loans appear to be the only viable option. It would be helpful if you could provide an outlook on the products and clients, as well as strategies to improve the non-performing loans situation. Additionally, could you address the coverage ratio? With it falling below 120%, I believe it is relatively low, and insights on how we should view the non-performing loan coverage ratio in the future would be valuable.

Speaker 2

Talking about non-performing loans, the main impact comes from credit cards and personal loans. We've seen personal loans grow faster than the market between March 2024 and March 2025, which is concerning since those have higher non-performing loans compared to credit cards. After March 2025, we began adjusting our origination policies, which we are still fine-tuning. This change led to an increased rate of deterioration as we expanded into riskier segments to capture market share in Argentina. This shift resulted in a mix of growth that was not as favorable as previous years, largely due to a lack of demand. In the past 12 months, we've observed a higher proportion of riskier segments. We've already started focusing on safer segments within personal loans, leading to healthier volume growth, despite a slowdown overall. Our current strategy involves careful disbursements while monitoring risk profiles, especially for new customers. Additionally, we see our retail banking continuing to grow in safer segments without significantly compromising volume. On the commercial side, particularly with small and medium enterprises, we are proceeding cautiously, considering the economy's potential fluctuations. If Argentina stabilizes post-elections and activity starts to pick up as we've seen recently, we believe there is growth potential in commercial lending with medium corporates as well. The lending market in Argentina remains under-penetrated, giving us room to grow without severe margin compression despite recent volatility. However, we see the necessity to stabilize consumer non-performing loans, which is currently a priority for us. We've begun noticing initial positive signs, although we still have some backlog from earlier personal lending issues, with credit card problems stemming from existing customers facing issues. Our strategy has been to reduce limits for higher-risk customers while enhancing our focus on collections and refinancing programs. Additionally, the merger with HSBC requires us to recalibrate our approach due to overlapping customers, which has an effect on our coverage ratio. For year-end, we anticipate the ratio will be between 120% and 130%.

Speaker 4

No, super clear, Gonzalo. So just making sure I got everything. Worsening, you had like higher appetite, you're growing faster. Yes, personal loans, a little bit of new customers that maybe they were riskier. Credit cards a little bit of everything, you are reducing your limits, improving collections, and coverage 120%, 130%. Just on the credit, a debate we had in other markets was regarding principality, right? Like, which is the, let's say, the favorite bank of the clients? And I guess in Argentina, people discuss a lot Mercado Pago, Mercado Libre and like some fintechs. Do you have any perceptions that principality matters at some degree here or not really? It's really a matter of people having disposable income and maybe higher limits out of the blue, and now people are not behaving the way you thought they would behave. So just trying to understand if principality matters here.

Speaker 2

I believe that principality is indeed important, but I don't think it has an impact on non-performing loans or performance. It may not even be directly related to me; rather, it's tied more to profitability. We all aim to be the preferred bank for our customers, as it generally leads to more business from them regardless of their performance. If a customer is underperforming, it’s not necessarily due to a lack of loyalty, but rather because they are facing difficulties. In Argentina, we see that customers have adjusted to using multiple banks due to past promotions and discounts. They would open several credit cards to take advantage of various offers from different banks throughout the week. With Mercado Pago being another competitor in the market, it’s not easy for banks to establish themselves as the primary choice for customers. That’s why we focus on being the everyday bank for them. We invest in our app to provide various functionalities, such as now offering interest on dollar deposit accounts. This has made us the leader in foreign exchange buying and selling for consumers since the FX restrictions have been lifted. This aspect is essential for us, especially from a profitability standpoint, and we are taking numerous steps to achieve it. However, in Argentina, as I mentioned, it's sometimes challenging because customers are accustomed to having multiple banks at their disposal.

Operator

Our next question comes from Pedro Leduc with Itaú BBA.

Speaker 5

A very quick follow-up on the NPLs. When you say stabilize, you mean like stabilize, rise less or be flat or maybe falling towards the end of 3Q or 4Q? That's just a quick follow-up. And then the real question is on financial margins. We saw it actually increasing a bit Q-on-Q. And a lot of it is coming from funding cost efficiency that we're seeing. But I also want to look ahead a bit on the NIMs. We're seeing the government issue higher rate bonds. We're seeing you probably price up a little bit more, and the funding savings seem sustainable. So I want to maybe get a sense from you if we can expect financial margins now growing in the second half of the year after slightly upticking in 2Q.

Speaker 2

Yes, thank you. Regarding non-performing loans, we noticed a slight increase that stabilized by the end of the third quarter, although there was still an uptick during the quarter. On margins, we experienced a strong second quarter thanks to better funding costs and improved performance of government bonds, particularly those linked to inflation due to the rise in inflation rates. In March, there was a two-month lag with the bonds, which impacted the second quarter's market performance. I would characterize the third quarter as an outlier for the year. The volatility in interest rates and rising funding costs will likely have a negative effect on the system in the third quarter, leading to a decline in margins due to this interest rate fluctuation. For instance, the interest rate surged from 30% to 60% within a month, affecting our short-term funding, which is typically very brief in Argentina, with time deposits averaging around 30 days. Meanwhile, assets are taking longer to adjust. As a result, we anticipate margin deterioration in the third quarter due to the rising funding costs and prevailing volatility, as the government implements a monetary policy aimed at controlling liquidity by increasing minimum requirements. However, we expect conditions to stabilize after the elections, allowing rates to return to what we experienced in the second quarter, helping us regain those margins. Predicting exactly when this will happen is challenging given the current political volatility and the extraordinarily high real interest rates. Ultimately, we foresee a more favorable situation in the fourth quarter, although the third quarter will likely reflect the challenges I mentioned.

Operator

Next question from Alonso Aramburú with BTG.

Speaker 6

Yes, I was going to ask also about margins. Maybe if you can provide what's the level of impact you're seeing in 3Q? Is it 100 basis points, 200 basis points? I mean, how much of an impact do you think you can have because of this higher funding costs? And related to monetary policy, obviously, I think there's still visibility, but banks have met with the Central Bank. Do you think the Central Bank is receptive maybe to some comments from the banks? Is there some leeway to potentially flexibilize some of these monetary policies to provide a little bit more liquidity to the banks in the short term?

Speaker 2

Thank you. Assessing the impact is quite challenging since the daily rates are fluctuating significantly. We are attempting to capture these changes, and it might be a couple of hundred basis points. However, we are uncertain about the duration of this situation. It is August now, but we still need to observe how it develops. We consistently engage in discussions with the Central Bank, which is very open to our feedback. We communicate our circumstances, and they comprehend our position. However, we cannot predict their future regulatory actions. We will adhere to all regulations, and while they are aware of our situation, their primary focus remains on managing inflation and stabilizing the economy. So, I cannot forecast their decisions, but I can confirm that we have explained our circumstances, and they do understand it.

Speaker 6

Okay. Great. And maybe a follow-up on asset quality and on cost of risk. I mean, what do you think would be your level of cost of risk? So 3Q should be similar to 2Q? Or do you expect some improvement or not yet until the fourth quarter?

Speaker 2

I would say that the third quarter is somewhat higher than the second quarter in terms of the total portfolio, and it appears to be stabilizing around 4.4% now.

Speaker 1

Cost of risk.

Speaker 2

Cost of risk, sorry. Cost of risk, we are in the range of 8%. Yes, we believe that for the second half, slightly higher than we are seeing now, not dramatically higher, slightly higher.

Operator

Next question from Marina Varaji with 9fin. CFO: No, I would say the third quarter is a bit higher than the second quarter. In total portfolio, it's slightly elevated compared to the second quarter and then stabilizing closer to today’s figure of 4.4%. So we could say yes, regarding the cost of risk. Cost of risk is around 8%. Yes, we believe that for the second half, it will be slightly higher than what we are observing now, but not dramatically so, just slightly higher.

Speaker 7

So I wanted to go back to NPLs. You provided some color on the consumer portfolio. But I was wondering about the corporate segment. Do you see any deterioration there? And also a second question, what do you think will be the level by year-end?

Speaker 2

In the corporate segment, we are not observing significant changes. Currently, we are at 0.7%, and by the end of the year, we expect it to remain in a similar range, slightly increasing to between 0.7% and 1%, but still at low levels. For SMEs, there has been some minor lending growth, which is typical given the increase in lending, but it does not indicate a systemic issue like we are seeing in the consumer segment. What was your other question?

Speaker 7

Where do you see the level of NPLs by the end of the year?

Speaker 2

The level of NPLs, yes, closer to total book close to 5%.

Operator

Next question from indiscernible.

Speaker 7

Very quick one. Just again on the NPLs. I think you mentioned that there was a trend in terms of NPL formation from new customers. Can you just confirm that? And also in terms of when the bulk of these NPLs were originated? Are these mostly loans that were originated last year when you had that above-average loans growth? Or are we looking at maturities dating back to before then roughly if you could describe the split, that would be very helpful.

Speaker 2

I couldn't hear very well, so I'll answer based on what I heard, and you can repeat if necessary. For personal lending, we experienced the most significant increase from March 2024 to March 2025, which is when we saw our fastest growth. After that, we began taking action. Regarding the credit card portfolio, it primarily involves existing customers who started experiencing performance issues. We began noticing this trend more in the first and second quarters of this year, with these customers struggling due to reduced disposable income. Therefore, the situation differs when discussing personal loans versus credit cards. I'm not sure if there was another question, but I couldn't hear it.

Operator

Next question from Santiago Petri with Franklin Templeton.

Speaker 8

I just want to understand the way of reasoning here because it gives me the impression from your comments that you expect that the volatility in rates is going to diminish once the uncertainty of elections is over. However, I have the impression that the volatility in rates was well before the political developments and the political events. So I just want to get a clarification if you are allowed to give so on these developments.

Speaker 2

Well, we are engaging in speculation here, so this is just an opinion. I recognize that the situation began a bit earlier. However, during an election year, we believe that the currently high real interest rates, which are elevated compared to inflation, cannot persist for too long as they will begin to affect the economy, including companies and borrowers. Our expectation, based on insights from our research department, is that after the elections, assuming the outcome aligns with market expectations, this could help stabilize the market and restore confidence in the peso, as it would suggest that the government is capable of implementing necessary changes. That is what we anticipate, but this situation is subject to change, and while this is the baseline scenario from our research team, it is not guaranteed.

Speaker 1

Hi, Santiago, I would like to add that once both elections are over, the government, meaning the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank will be more perhaps receptive to change regulations because right now, they want to get to the elections with stability in terms of inflation, FX, volatility. So there could be some changes after that.

Operator

The question-and-answer section is over. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Pablo Firvida for the company's final remarks.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you. Thank you all for attending this call. If you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Good morning. Bye-bye.

Speaker 2

Bye-bye.

Operator

Grupo Financiero Galicia conference is now closed. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.