Gold.com, Inc. Q2 FY2021 Earnings Call

Welcome to the Barrick 2021 Second Quarter Results Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on Barrick's website later today, August 9, 2021. I would now like to turn you over to Mark Bristow, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you very much, and good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Barrick's Q2 results presentation. Despite the short spell of value-creating consolidation preceding the pandemic, I feel our industry is still too fragmented and needs to lift its horizon and focus a little more on the future. We have been living on a rising gold price going back to the turn of the century with not much focus on replacing the ore bodies we mine with similar quality. As I have said many times before, having experienced the last gold price boom without creating any real value, the gold industry, and to be fair, many investors in this sector, still cannot resist the lure of instant gratification, which comes at the price of investment in the future and sustainable profitability, as we witnessed from 2013 to 2015. Barrick, on the other hand, has a fundamentally contrarian position. Ours is a long-term strategy designed to manage the industry's best asset portfolio and project pipeline so that they will deliver the best returns to all our stakeholders over the longer term and far into the future. As I will show you in the course of this presentation, our major mines now all have reality-based tenure plans currently being refined, and the team's challenge is to look further out to 15 and even 20 years. Please take note of our cautionary statement as per this slide. And should you need to, it is also available on our website. At a time when ESG heads market scrutiny of the industry, Barrick has an environmental, social and governance strategy evolved over many years and not freshly contrived to check compliance boxes. It's a central part of the business from managing buyer diversity to Board diversity. Our climate specific strategy is grounded in climate science rather than wishful thinking with ambitious but realistic targets and measurable results, which we report transparently and comprehensively. Protecting the health and safety of our employees is the central part of this strategy. And while lost time injuries decreased again in quarter 2, this achievement was overshadowed by the fatality of a contractor's employee at our Hemlo mine in Canada after the quarter end. An investigation into this tragic accident is underway, while in the meantime, we continue to support the family. On the environmental front, there were no Class 1 incidents during the quarter. We are continuing to maximize our water reuse and recycling rates and are firmly on track to achieve our water efficiency target of at least 80% by the end of this year. In line with Barrick's flat structure and decentralized management, the group's climate train strategy is being implemented on the ground, with each site tailoring the strategy to achieve the optimal local outcome. We're continuously seeking new technological developments that can accelerate or enhance these plans. We have also continued the independent human rights assessments we started in quarter 1, with a review of the Kibali operation completed this quarter. So these are the group's KPIs. And as you can see, we've had a very busy quarter. I'll deal with these as we go along. The actions we took at the time of the merger 2.5 years ago are clearly bearing fruit as evidenced by another sector-leading cash return to shareholders of an effective $0.23 for the quarter, made up of the base $0.09 dividend and the second $250 million tranche of the shareholder-approved return of capital. While we've created a strong foundation for the achievement of our vision of managing the best assets with the best people to achieve the best returns, Barrick's future very much depends on what we are doing now. In this regard, I'm very happy to say that on a group basis, we look set to replace the reserves depleted by mining this year with ounces of at least the same quality. We're expanding our presence in new countries within prospective gold fields. And our greenfields exploration programs are identifying exciting new discovery opportunities. It's also gratifying to note that our major capital projects have all made significant progress. Despite some significant headwinds, we delivered a credible set of operating results. An unprecedented mechanical failure at the Goldstrike roaster impacted the North American region, but Africa and the Middle East and Latin America and Asia Pacific both performed well and are trending to the higher end of their production guidance, emphatically illustrating the value of Barrick's global presence. As you will see, at quarter end, we had more than $5 billion in cash on the balance sheet, notwithstanding some significant cash outflows during the quarter. In addition to paying one of the industry's leading shareholder returns in the form of dividends and return of capital, the second quarter is also when the majority of our tax obligations are due and interest on our bonds are paid. In addition, we made royalty and tax prepayments to support some host countries' COVID campaigns. It's worth noting that our focus on the future, which I will touch on in more detail in the presentation, is not keeping us from rewarding our investors here and now, and it's what will allow us to keep rewarding them in the future, a strategy that I believe will differentiate us over time. We'll start our review of the operations in North America. Nevada Gold Mines hosted its first virtual tour during the quarter. And if you missed it, you can still see the detailed presentations on the NGM website. In its short life, Nevada Gold Mines has achieved a great deal. The mines as well as the management have been successfully integrated into a Barrick-style structure. And the company has also launched a series of programs to ensure its recognition as a valued partner to the state and the community. Nevada Gold Mines and Nevada's mining industry as a whole has cemented that partnership through establishing the mining education tax and excise tax that will go directly to fund education in the state. And this is an example of true collaboration between industry, legislators from both sides, and the governor's office. Across the region, noncore assets within the North American portfolio have been brought to account on the back of the higher gold price, while elsewhere in the region, we are leading the industry and relooking at the way we manage closure sustainably, such as reprocessing tailings at Barrick's Golden Sunlight closure property in Montana. Nevada is far from being a mature gold province, and there are plenty of opportunities for significant reserve additions as well as new world-class discoveries. In the meantime, both the Goldrush and Fourmile projects are making steady progress. Carlin had a challenging quarter. No sooner had the annual maintenance shutdown for both roasters been completed successfully, then one of the Goldstrike roaster mills failed, reducing throughput by some 40% for that mill. It is pleasing to share with you that the team rose to the challenge by increasing throughput through the operating mill, adjusting all blends and prioritizing high-grade oxide underground ore at the Cortez mill. Repairs on the Goldstrike mill should be completed later in this quarter. This chart underlines the point I made earlier about Nevada being far from mature as a gold region. Exploration is delivering significant reserve additions, geological model refinements and new conceptual targets, as I will touch on. At Leeville, resource drilling is returning particularly strong results, as you can see here. It has confirmed high-grade continuity and the potential for connecting adjacent high-grade intercepts. While to the East, a significant intercept has expanded the mineralized footprint. North Leeville is on track to deliver a maiden resource by the end of this year. Moving to Cortez, which was also impacted by the Goldstrike mill failure, however, it remains on guidance because of the reference I made earlier of upping oxide mill and heap leach production. Also in the Cortez region, the Robertson project has made enormous progress. The latest work has confirmed its 4 million ounce potential, and we're aiming to complete a pre-feasibility study by the end of this year. The deposits are open in multiple directions as evidenced by the drill results at the distal part of the Robertson project. And new targets have also been generated between Robertson and the world-class Pipeline mine. This is a previously untested but highly prospective area. This is just another illustration of how much we still have to learn and the upside potential that remains in front of us. The Goldrush feasibility update was also completed during the quarter, with total initial capital expected to be slightly lower versus the previous studies of estimates of around $1 billion. This study will support the conversion of reserves in the new year and reflects the plan of operations submitted as part of the permitting process. And we expect the notice of intent to be published imminently in the federal register. That then sets the program to be able to expect, and we do expect the record of decision in quarter 4 of next year. There still remains the enormous potential for future improvement in the project economics from those resources not considered within the feasibility study. And of course, there is Fourmile that lies contiguous to the Goldrush ore body. To put it plainly, the updated study underscores our belief that this is a world-class asset, which more than meets our investment criteria. The high-grade Barrick-owned Fourmile project can also claim world-class status. And we still firmly believe that the full potential has not yet been reached. It is planned to be accessed from Goldrush for underground exploration work to expand the resource, as we shared with you last quarter. And we are currently evaluating the best way to ultimately mine this project. Turquoise Ridge is probably the Nevada's site with the most upside, but at the same time, the complex, which includes Twin Creeks mines and processing facilities came with many challenges. We've now improved the geology, updated the models and produced a revised high-confidence mine plan on that foundation. Plant upgrades and new investments in underground equipment and ventilation are expected to deliver an improved performance commencing in the second half of the year. In line with Barrick's clean energy strategy, Turquoise Ridge is currently trialing four 50-ton electric trucks, and as with all state-of-the-art technology, we are working through some teething challenges associated with ensuring the batteries are robust enough for underground working conditions. Meanwhile, construction of the mine's third shaft remains on time and within budget, with sinking recently reaching its final depth. Commissioning of the shaft is expected late next year when the shaft is expected to start delivering on easing bottlenecking by increasing hoisting capacity; providing additional ventilation, which is one of the inhibiting factors in expanding the production out of Turquoise Ridge underground; and of course, shortening haulage distances. Our focus on quality geoscience and understanding the geological framework and controls to mineralization is delivering multiple targets in the gap between the giant Turquoise Ridge and Mega deposits. Recent drilling validates our model and confirms the potential for significant brownfields discoveries in the area. This really is one of the most exciting prospective areas in the Nevada Gold Mines district. And then elsewhere in Nevada, both Phoenix and Long Canyon had good quarters. Strong copper byproduct credits drove down costs at Phoenix, while Long Canyon continued to deliver exceptional margins. At Long Canyon, a review to optimize the project is continuing with the current expectation that the mine will move into care and maintenance in quarter 1 of next year. In Canada, Hemlo's reinvention as an underground operation was impeded by COVID travel restrictions, which have impacted the Australian contractors with whom Barrick has worked very successfully in Africa. As a result, the mine underperformed and is trending to the bottom of its guidance for 2021. The transformation of the underground continues, however, with mining from a new portal expected to start in this quarter. And in exploration, we are continuing to define potential resource additions, which could extend the mine's life beyond 2030. Significant progress has already been made in delineating targets, which are outside Hemlo's current mine plan, with recent drilling identifying the E-Zone below the western side of the old open pit. Another point worth noting is that we are fortunate to have the support of our First Nation Partners as we secure the future of Hemlo. Further afield across the Canadian gold fields, we continue to hunt for new opportunities capable of passing our investment filters. And I personally believe Canada is going to be playing an increasing part in Barrick's future. At Donlin in Alaska, I am now beginning to be more comfortable that we are starting to get a better understanding of the fundamental characteristics of the ore body or ore bodies and a better spatial resolution where the metals and the ore types are. And this is what will derisk the mine plan and add value to the project. This key piece of work is critical to developing an improved and considered mine plan with which to make a sensible decision as we progress towards updating the 2011 feasibility study. As an aside, we have an interesting portfolio of study-stage projects. This includes potential world-class projects like Donlin, Alturas, Norte Abierto, and Pascua-Lama. While these are all large capital-intensive projects, we continue to chip away and derisk the projects to allow us to make a sensible development decision or find other means to transfer the value to our shareholders. In Latin America, the Asia Pacific region exceeded its quarter 2 production target, led by Veladero, which posted a solid performance on the back of improved ore stacking and fresh ounces pulled from the recently commissioned Phase 6 heap leach facility. Costs were also better than planned across the region. At Pueblo Viejo, production was impacted as expected by the planned autoclave maintenance shutdown, but the mine remains well positioned to achieve its annual guidance. The plant and tailings expansion project, which is designed to unlock 9 million ounces of reserves and extend the mine's life to beyond the 2040s, continued with work on the processing plant scheduled for completion by the end of 2022. Negotiations for the new tailings facility site took a big step forward with Barrick and the potentially affected parties agreeing to an independent government-led environmental impact assessment to be conducted in parallel with our own third-party studies. Despite the progress that has been made with the expansion project, including our ongoing engagement with local stakeholders to ensure we maintain our social license, there have been some delays to the project time line. There is, however, a cushion built into our plans, and we need the new storage facility complete and operating by quarter 1, 2026. On the exploration front, work on the Zambrana target at Pueblo Viejo continues to define a 1.5-kilometer long northwest striking target with strongly mineralized rock and soil samples within the mine lease area. The target extends beyond the lease boundary where Barrick owns rights through a joint venture, and we'll drill it out once the necessary permitting process has been completed. We move now to Veladero in Argentina, where heap leach processing was reduced in the first half of the year, while the mine transitioned to the new Phase 6 facility. This was successfully commissioned on time in quarter 2 and in line with guidance, supporting a higher-than-forecast production and a solid all-round performance, which is expected to improve further in the second half of the year. While the exploration focus is on extending Veladero's life, we're also looking at new opportunities between the mine and our nearby Lama project, on the Argentinian side of Pascua-Lama. Drilling in this district has already confirmed an extensive gold-copper mineralized system in the stratigraphically important area between the Pascua-Lama deposit and the Penelope porphyry target near Veladero. We referred to this target, which is shown on this slide as Lama East. And this is part of a portfolio of identified and very prospective targets, which will be the focus of future work. And there is clearly a significant exploration upside in this district. In fact, we're planning, as we come out of winter, to be able to mobilize a total of around 12 drill rigs in this region. Meanwhile, stepping even further out, the exploration team continues to generate new targets along the southern part of the El Indio belt. We expect to start drilling in this district this quarter, now that we have completed the initial phase of mapping, evaluating and prioritizing various targets. Our recent entry into the Guyana Shield is part of the strategy to expand our exploration frontiers. We've already moved from generative work to consolidating a meaningful land package through a number of exploration earn and transactions in this country. The Makapa project, which covers a large part of the country's prospective Karouni Basin, bears strong geological similarities to our West African projects, and we'll be applying that expertise as we start to explore in that region. And across now to Papua New Guinea, where the reopening of the Porgera mine awaits the finalization of various agreements. This follows a signing of a binding framework agreement with the government earlier in quarter 2. The mine is still on care and maintenance, although we have started opening up access to the bottom of the pit and underground workings. We have also started to build up a leadership team in preparation for the commencement of reopening operations, while in parallel, the government is running the community and landowner consultation process. Further around the world to Africa and the Middle East region, this region delivered its usual robust results and is on track to achieve the upper end of its annual production guidance. In Mali, Loulo-Gounkoto exceeded its forecast for the quarter on the back of a strong plant performance and kept costs below plan. A highlight of the quarter was the delivery of first ore from the complex's third underground mine at Gounkoto, in line with guidance. Yalea Ridge, also part of the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, which is located just adjacent to the Yalea open pit, has recently emerged as a potentially exciting new discovery with results continuing to return impressive intersections. A second phase of drilling is now underway. The Loulo District remains a highly prospective one. Work on the Bambadji joint venture and the Senegal east side of the border continues. And over the past 2 exploration seasons, we have screened a vast 40-kilometer long area. We believe there is a high potential for a material new discovery or series of discoveries, and we are seeking to consolidate an even larger land position in the district. Across the river, there is an intensified focus on extending the exploration targets to replace mine reserve depletion at both Gounkoto and Loulo. Tongon in Côte d'Ivoire remained on track to achieve its annual production guidance, thanks to a higher throughput, which compensated for slightly lower grade. Strong results from brownfields exploration point to a high potential for lengthening the mine's life, and we recently received confirmation of a 10-year extension to the Tongon mining lease. On the nearly permit, which hosts Tongon, drilling on the Seydou South target has defined a plunging shoot of high-grade mineralization, increasing the possibility of finding new satellites close to the plant. And at Boundiali, a new mineralized target has been identified at Caribou. And we continue to investigate the feasibility of targets being mined and fed into the Tongon plant located between about 40 to 70 kilometers away. Across then to Central Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Kibali's production was well ahead of plan on the back of higher grades, and it is set to achieve the upper end of its annual guidance. The mine remains at the global forefront of automation. And by the way, during the quarter, it implemented predictive maintenance software, which uses machine learning to assist in failure mode identification at its hydropower stations. Staying with Kibali, 3 targets currently stand out from the exploration portfolio. Deep drilling has confirmed that the folded mine sequence, which hosts the very high-grade KCD orebodies, is still in place 500 meters down plunge from the limits of the current resource. I believe this is an amazing ore body, and it still has a lot of pleasant surprises in store for us, I'm sure. Along the highly prospective KZ-Zone, deep drilling is about to start at Kalimva. Results from recent drilling have confirmed that the high-grade mineralization is not only confined to plunging shoots but there is potential for the down-dip extensions to be mined from underground. Another interesting target that is currently attracting our intention is the MMR target, which has many similarities to the main KCD ore body. And as you can see here, it's very close to the Kibali processing facilities. Further East and South, North Mara in Tanzania continued to improve its underground productivity and achieved an optimal blend between fresh underground ore and lower-grade stockpile ore. A further improvement is expected when its new mining fleet arrives in the second half of the year. Incidentally, we have just appointed a Tanzanian General Manager for North Mara in line with Barrick's global policy of employing host country nationals, not only as labor but in key leadership positions. And at Bulyanhulu, the ramp-up of underground mining and processing operations continued as we bring this long-life low-cost mine up to Barrick's standards. The development of an optimized mine plan continues to advance and a steady-state annualized production is expected next year. In the meantime, Barrick continues to strengthen its presence in Tanzania. In July, we were granted 19 new permits in multiple greenstone belts across the country. And we await the outcome of our applications for additional ground. Our copper portfolio again made a significant contribution to Barrick's bottom line. At Lumwana, higher throughput and grade drove an increase in production, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year. At Jabal Sayid, it also had a good quarter and is on track to achieve its annual guidance as well as more than replace depleted reserves. High-grade ore from newly identified feeder zones points to a material life of mine extension. Zaldívar is continuing to recover from the impact of Chile's COVID restrictions but significantly advanced its chloride leach project scheduled for completion in the first half of next year. As part of the process of expanding our global footprint in pursuit of new discoveries and opportunities, we secured 4 exploration licenses covering over 2,900 square kilometers in Egypt's well-endowed Eastern Desert region. The license areas have been solid for their structural and geological similarities to the world-class Sukari deposit. When we merged Barrick and Randgold 2.5 years ago, one of our objectives was to create a modern business with a flatter, leaner structure, and a highly efficient executive oversight. This has enabled us to cut general and administration costs by more than 30% in absolute dollar terms, while at the same time, increasing revenue. On any measure, our corporate costs are now substantially lower than our peer group, as shown in this slide. And one of our key fundamental goals at the time of the merger was the creation of real value for our shareholders through improved operational effectiveness and streamlining our business. Here on this slide, you can see how we've achieved these objectives across multiple metrics, from increased cash flow and returns to our shareholders to increase cash on hand and balance sheet strength. And finally, ladies and gentlemen, as I have often stressed, our strategy is a long-term one designed to deliver sustainable production and profitability at whatever conceivable gold price one can expect. As we have shared with you at the start of the year, we have a 10-year runway ahead of us, supported by mine and business plans developed at a conservative $1,200 an ounce gold price assumption. Although we, as a team, have made good progress, there is still some work to be done to unlock the full potential of Nevada, Pueblo Viejo, Veladero, and Porgera. And then there's the pipeline of already defined opportunities like Fourmile, Donlin, and the South American portfolio. After that, it's about investing in our future through our rapidly developing greenfields initiatives, which I firmly believe will add significant value in due course. And while we aim to keep our feet firmly on the ground, we're certainly also keeping an eye on the big blue sky above us. So thank you for your attention, and we'll be happy to take questions.

Our first question comes from Greg Barnes of TD Securities.

Mark, notably absent from any of your discussion on the press release was any talk about inflation pressures, cost pressures. Some of your peers have highlighted 3% to 5% upside to costs through 2022, but it doesn't appear you're feeling the same pressures.

No, Greg, I think there is some pressure. It likely depends on your outlook regarding oil and gas prices, which could be about 1%. Year-to-date, we’re on track with our budget. If you project the current spot prices to the end of the year, it could add around 1%. Including the impact of a higher gold price, that’s another 1%. However, I believe you know that in the gold industry, cost issues are often more tied to grade than actual costs. We also face other cost pressures with steel. We've experienced some minor delays at Pueblo Viejo due to logistics, but we've caught up because most of the steel for our other projects, including a significant portion for Pueblo Viejo, was preordered. When COVID started, we increased our stock holding on consumables and have maintained that level. We are managing that well. Additionally, there are significant supply chain challenges as the global situation begins to normalize. Our teams have shown a lot of flexibility; we’ve utilized long supply chains from Africa and multiple suppliers, which has helped us avoid major disruptions in logistics. We've also improved our shipment consolidation. Overall, while there is still room for improvement, I am quite cautious about logistics and supply chain management. We have successfully cut hundreds of millions of dollars in costs in Nevada. We are making progress in Pueblo Viejo but still face challenges in Argentina due to the ongoing financial and currency crisis. Aside from that, we are focused on costs and efficiencies. The more efficient we get, the better our discussions about technology and automation become. We are beginning to see initial benefits from the rollout of a new data platform aimed at improving our management's ability to report real-time data, which will enhance efficiency. We have three more mines to go, after which we will focus on leveraging these benefits. We’ve been training our managers to effectively use this new platform. On top of this, Riaan and his team in supply chain and procurement have revamped many contracts and harnessed our global buying power, especially by building strong partnerships with our major equipment suppliers, Caterpillar and Sandvik. Overall, I believe we are in good shape and will not use inflation pressures, whether they are temporary or real, as an excuse. Our responsibility as managers is to continuously look for improvement opportunities, especially when we have high-quality assets in the gold industry.

But do you think you'll be able to contain that into 2022, Mark? Or the pressure is building as you look out to next year?

The key point is that we need to forecast commodity prices. We've secured many of our major capital projects, so we are in a strong position. However, I am concerned about the uncertainties in the global economy. The recent decline in gold prices and other commodities serves as a reminder that market trends can fluctuate unpredictably. We are not focusing on maximizing immediate opportunities; instead, we have achieved industry-leading returns as we demonstrated today, stemming from our 2018 merger strategies. Our current actions are crucial for the future of Barrick, and we have proven that we can perform at a high level without jeopardizing our ore bodies. We are investing in both extending our current resources and ensuring operational efficiency by using a disciplined approach with a $1,200 threshold, which enhances cost control. One major challenge during high-price cycles is the depletion of high-quality ore, which we are starting to notice with lower grades, and this will be evident at year-end with our reserve declarations. Copper prices pose similar issues, obscuring the focus on mining and processing disciplines. We must navigate our circumstances carefully. I anticipate inflation since there is considerable capital in circulation, and I worry about how the real economy will respond. We still lack clarity on how the pandemic will affect the global economy, especially concerning developing nations' responses to climate change without proper engagement. We may face unforeseen challenges like those experienced during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the effects of which manifested several years later. Therefore, we should brace for potential surprises, not all of which may be positive.

Our next question comes from Anita Soni of CIBC World Markets.

So just following on Greg's question, thanks for some fulsome answer there. I think your prior cost guidance had an expectation of a cost decline for next year. So given that you're looking at a 1% to 2% increase, is that relative to the sort of mid to top end of the guidance range that you've given for this year, which is about $700 to $730, which is kind of where we sit? Or is that relative to the midrange? So basically, I'm asking, can we expect costs to go down year-over-year? Or are we just looking at not as much of an increase as your peers are forecasting?

Yes, that's a great question. The key factor here, particularly in terms of cost per ounce, is our projected profile for next year. We anticipate a decrease in Nevada, which will affect our costs, but our forecasting accounts for that. We will also start producing at Pueblo Viejo next year. It's crucial for our team to adhere to these plans, and we are actively working on them. Additionally, we are set to bring Porgera into production, as we had planned for next year. While the initial costs per ounce will be higher due to start-up expenses, the other mines are performing well. Furthermore, Goldrush will also help reduce costs once we begin production, which we expect to have a significant decision by the end of next year. Overall, the trend for us is down. Graham, do you have anything to add?

The only other comment I would point out, Mark, is just that the guidance for 2021 was based on our budgeted price of gold of $1,700, whereas in our 5-year planning for 2022, we use $1,200 gold. So when we come to update our guidance for 2022, we'll probably move it using a higher gold price, something that's closer to spot, and that does tend to push the prices up just because of the impact on royalty and mine site costs.

Which is a nice problem to have. That's a good point. Thank you, Graham.

Our next question comes from Mike Jalonen of Bank of America.

Mark and Graham, I have a question regarding the government-led strategic environmental assessment for the mine life extension project, which you mentioned, Mark, runs parallel to your own studies. Will this involve a committee or a panel of independent individuals? I would like more details on that.

We adhere to international guidelines on tailings dams and engage with interested and affected parties. Barrick has reviewed 22 potential sites and narrowed it down to two. We've initiated public engagement on these sites, starting informally in 2020 and formally at the beginning of this year. You may have noticed media coverage regarding this consultation process. In the Dominican Republic, there are a few vocal detractors, but Pueblo Viejo plays a critical role in the country’s economy, contributing 18% of corporate taxes from 2013 to 2020. We aim for proper engagement and have cooperated with the government to understand genuine concerns. Typically, worries focus on environmental impacts and the safety of large storage facilities. It's important to note that the previous owners, Rosario, left behind significant environmental issues, which we have committed to addressing in line with international standards. To reassure the detractors, we plan to conduct third-party studies focusing on biodiversity, hydrogeology, hydraulics, and water systems, which we have already started. The government will appoint an independent global expert to guide an independent study following established guidelines for assessing these installations and their closure plans. The government will review our findings alongside the independent review to ensure consistency. We've established a coordinating committee to address any emerging issues. Barrick aims to be a modern mining company, and we are confident about the sites we've chosen. The independent experts will also evaluate our methodology in selecting these two sites. Typically, we would select one site, but to enhance transparency, we will study both options. I hope this clarifies your question, Mike.

I guess I'm just wondering these global experts, I guess, it will take time to be chosen and their study from site 1 versus...

No. We are already collaborating with the government. We have begun the process at most of the sites and need to start drilling. The drill machines are ready, and we have 14 holes to drill at one site, with slightly fewer at the other since we have already drilled some holes to indicate where the conveyor belts connect to the first site. We need to ensure we can operate for a full year. There will be 6 months of modeling, followed by a full year of sampling, testing, and analysis. We are pleased with our program if we start soon enough. They have selected 5 candidates for consideration and have received approval to expedite procurement in accordance with government policy. Meanwhile, we are collaborating with the Directors General and the Ministry of Environment to initiate the process, finalize the site agreements, and begin fieldwork to measure the local flora and fauna as part of our biodiversity test. We are confident and well-prepared. It is essential for them to have someone independent of us overseeing this process to address the concerns of detractors.

Our next question comes from Jackie Przybylowski of BMO Capital Markets.

I wanted to ask you about your dividend policy. I know, Mark, you've previously talked about how you see commodity prices going up and down, and it's maybe too soon to say. But you've got a strong dividend for 2021. Is there any thought or can you make any comments on whether that special dividend program may be extended to 2022?

I would say it's unlikely. This year has been unpredictable for us. We had a specific chance to return capital in a cost-effective way, especially for our Canadian investors, and we took it. It was the right move, and it is a genuine return to shareholders. You will see our commitment to this. Many have questioned whether it was a real action, but of course it was. I remind everyone that I am also a shareholder, so our decisions are not made recklessly. We assured the market that we would work toward a more defined return of excess funds because that is the current discussion. We are in the process of determining the best approach. In my previous role at Randgold, I supported the first fixed balance sheet number and then distributed the remainder. I believe we've shared all available options with you, Jackie, and we'll continue to explore them. Additionally, experiences like yesterday or this morning serve as a reminder of our focus. Our commitment extends beyond just paying dividends; it includes tax obligations and ensuring we maintain a sustainable business through market cycles. We are strongly dedicated to this principle and will uphold it.

Sorry, can you hear me?

Yes, we can hear you. I think there's a little bit of interference on the line. Sorry.

Yes. Just a separate question. I noticed in your MD&A, you've written like Catherine Raw is going to be leaving, and I'm sorry to see her go. I think she's been a great contributor to Barrick. But you also mentioned in the paragraph that you'll communicate any successor and maybe changes to the regional management structure in due course. Can you talk a little bit about what your thoughts or what your options might be in terms of changing that regional management structure? Do you have anything specific in mind at this point?

I have Catherine here with me, and we share your sadness. This is a personal matter for her. She has agreed to stay until the end of the year to work alongside me because she has strong views that align with mine on promoting women to senior positions and incorporating youth and diverse perspectives. We also want to honor Catherine's request regarding timing. We have plenty of time to navigate this, and Catherine is leaving behind a capable team in Nevada, so there won't be a significant gap. We view this as an opportunity to find someone who can grow and contribute to the future of Barrick. Our HR team is actively searching for global talent, and we will also consider our internal candidates. We prefer to approach this thoughtfully rather than hastily. It's important for us to remain focused on delivering on my commitment to the market, which includes bringing in younger, talented women executives to enhance our leadership. This priority will be at the forefront of our efforts as we move forward with this process. I'm confident that Catherine will continue to showcase her talents in the near future.

Our next question comes from John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Research.

Mark, it seems like inflation trends are the highest in 4 decades, maybe more. And it could be a really good time for gold despite today's price action. Given your large cash hoard, do you think it's a better strategy to buy Barrick shares, to buy someone else's shares, to consolidate assets? Or just stick to your knitting where some of the mine projects, Donlin, Creek, Norte Abierto, or others could be multibillion dollar? And you might need the cash inside the company?

So John, I don’t mean to state the obvious, but the key focus for us is to stay relevant in global markets. Both Newmont and Barrick have shown that being larger allows you to attract generalists to your shareholder base, and we have both succeeded in this regard. The industry needs consolidation, as highlighted by Barrick's merger with Randgold, the consolidation in Nevada, the acquisition of minorities in Acacia, and Newmont's purchase of Goldcorp, along with Kirkland Lake’s acquisition of Detour and various consolidations in Australia. However,activity slowed when gold prices surged, leading many to simply take a break during COVID. This has created a significant divide between the top two leaders in the industry and the rest, indicating that we remain fragmented and in need of further consolidation. Moreover, we're not replacing the ounces we mine with equivalent quality, making it challenging to find value. That's why I advocate for at-market transactions, but if we identify an opportunity early enough, we can create value for both sets of shareholders. However, once projects enter the promotion phase, they often peak and never reach those heights again once production starts. This poses a challenge, and it's not advisable to invest heavily in these types of ventures. We’ve seen the last boom result in numerous mishaps across the mining industry due to such decisions, and we’re cautious about that. Our experience guides us to avoid making impulsive moves. High-quality assets retain significant value throughout any market cycle. Additionally, I've emphasized my commitment to organic growth, which has been the cornerstone of my career. We’ve made substantial investments to enhance our exploration teams, and we’re beginning to see the payoff. As I mentioned earlier, this is a long-term endeavor. We're prepared to seize opportunities, but we’re also committed to investing in our future. Ultimately, our goal is to provide cash value to our shareholders. A major challenge in the cyclical gold industry is accurately assessing value, which can fluctuate significantly from moment to moment or year to year. As a management team and Board, we have made buybacks historically and intend to continue doing so. The question remains whether now is the right time for that.

Our next question comes from Matthew Murphy of Barclays.

Mark, just a question on Goldrush and the record of decision timing slipping a bit again. At what point does that fall in the critical path? Is it on the critical path right now? And if not, at what point does it become critical path? And like how challenging a permitting process do you expect Goldrush to be?

It's been a long time coming. The delay we faced in the notice of intent is due to the change in administration, which we have navigated, and it's been confirmed that it will be published in the short term. This establishes the program for the record of decision. I can say that we've been exploring Goldrush, and we have made progress into the ore body. The authorities are completely aligned with our actions, and we are managing it according to the plan of operations. Therefore, we have no reason to think that the record of decision won't be issued. We have included some buffer time when we mention the end of 2022, so that's our target. Catherine, do you want to add anything?

I want to confirm what you've just mentioned, which is that Goldrush has been in preparation for a long time. We have been actively engaged in this process. The way we are developing the ore body considers all environmental factors and Native American concerns that have become priorities for the new administration. Regarding the exploration declines and underground development, this positions us to accelerate quickly once we receive the record of decision. Currently, the timeline aligns with our 5- to 10-year mine plan. If there are further delays, we will need to reevaluate our plans.

Greg, do you want to add anything? We got the whole team here.

Mark, Catherine just covered it perfectly. And the direct answer is it's not on the critical path at the moment, but and we expect the record of decision in Q4 next year.

Sure. Thank you. Greg, thank you.

There are no more questions from the conference call. This concludes today's conference call. Should you have any additional questions, please contact the Barrick Investor Relations department. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.