Gold.com, Inc. Q1 FY2022 Earnings Call

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Barrick 2022 First Quarter Results Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on Barrick's website later today, May 4, 2022. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mark Bristow, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, and very good morning, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. The world today is facing the greatest period of economic, social and geopolitical disruption it has experienced in more than a generation. Russia's war on Ukraine and its expected larger ambitions could redraw the map of Europe, breaking down what everyone thought was a permanently settled order. This is already having a painful economic impact on many countries that are dependent on Russian oil and gas, but also on industries worldwide that are facing serious supply and logistics challenges in a rising inflation environment. Meanwhile, over in China, COVID has come back in a big way, dispelling any notion that the worst of the pandemic was behind us. All in all, it's a time of radical change and no one knows how it's going to turn out. As far as Barrick is concerned, however, scenario planning is an important part of our regular strategic reviews and it keeps us prepared for all reasonably conceivable outcomes, including the worst-case scenarios. Our global presence means that our risks are spread widely, and the strength of our asset base, our balance sheet, and our management gives us confidence in our ability to navigate the turbulence. Please take note of this cautionary statement, which is also available on the Barrick website. These are the salient features of the past quarter. As we messaged, production was softer than the previous quarters for reasons I'll explain later. As planned, we expect that the second half of the year will be stronger, which should keep us on track to meet our annual guidance. Our best assets generally performed well, with Loulo-Gounkoto delivering exceptionally good results. Other highlights of the quarter include the in-principle agreement with Pakistan for the restart of the Reko Diq copper-gold project, which we believe will be a Tier 1 asset by any measure. Also important was the progress we made with the permitting process of Pueblo Viejo's new tailing storage facility, which will transform what is already a Tier 1 mine by adding more than 20 years to its life and as much as 9 million new ounces to the reserves. As we expected, as we expand globally, we continue to strengthen our management team through a number of senior appointments, and effective succession planning has facilitated the smooth transition to new chief operating officers for our North American and African and Middle Eastern regions. ESG, what we call Sustainability, remains high on management's priorities. Last month, we published our fourth annual sustainability report, which highlighted the importance of our integrated approach and updated our greenhouse gas reduction roadmap for the journey to net-zero. If you haven't seen the report yet, I would suggest that it's well worth the read. So turning to the numbers, robust operating and free cash flows and a net cash position again strengthened the balance sheet and supported Barrick's inaugural declaration under our new policy of a $0.10 per share performance dividend, which effectively doubles the $0.10 base dividend. It's also worth noting that Kibali has now paid out $1.2 billion on a 100% basis over the last 6 months, clearing the backlog of locked-up cash in that country. The past quarter's gold and copper production provided a base from which performance will improve steadily over the course of the year. We remain on track to deliver within our 2022 production guidance. Cost guidance may be at the higher end of the range, due mainly to the increase in global energy prices as well as inflationary pressures across the global supply chain and the effect of a higher gold price on royalties. At the start of the year, we guided costs by about 5%. And with the recent increases in prices, we see this potentially adding around another 3% to costs. On the financial side, our improved net cash position of $743 million was driven by operating cash flow of $1 billion with free cash flow of $393 million. The distributions received from Kibali and the continuing monetization of equity positions arising from the sale of non-core assets. Also worth noting is that during the quarter, S&P upgraded our long-term corporate credit rating to BBB+ from BBB with a stable outlook. We published our first standalone Tax Contribution Report, which highlights the significant contributions we make to the countries and economies where we operate. We continue our health and safety journey to zero harm, but an otherwise credible record was sadly marked by 2 fatalities during the quarter. As you would expect, we take these events extremely seriously. Among other initiatives, we have increased the on-site engagement and visibility of operational leadership to ensure that these do not happen again. By the end of the quarter, 67% of our entire workforce had been fully vaccinated and there were very few active cases on sites across the group. However, as recent events have shown, we can't afford to drop our guard. Therefore, we're keeping our protocols in place and updating them regularly. There were no Class 1 environmental incidents during the quarter, and we again improved our water use efficiency, which at 84% was ahead of the annual target of 80%. Greenhouse gas emissions also decreased by 9% quarter-on-quarter. As one of the Group's many community initiatives, Nevada Gold Mines has provided a $30 million loan for the provision of broadband Internet service to the surrounding towns. Elsewhere across the Group, they've spent $4.9 million on community development projects. The sustainability report I mentioned earlier details our evolving approach to ESG management. It recognizes that global crises, such as climate change, poverty, access to water, and biodiversity loss are inextricably linked and should not be treated in isolation. We believe that it's only by integrating these challenges and approaching them holistically that we will be able to make a real difference. Our 2019 sustainability scorecard was the first for the industry. The 2022 addition again features a number of firsts, alignment with the reporting standards of the various ESG guidance frameworks, public disclosure of our Scope 3 emissions and a reduction roadmap, a report on social metrics not aligned to dollars spent, and a biodiversity standard and water policy. It also updates the greenhouse gas roadmap that plots our course to net-zero and the progress we're making on resolving legacy issues. This year's report again updates our sustainability scorecard, which rates our performance across a wide range of key metrics. While noting many improvements, we achieved our third overall B grade, an honest acknowledgment that fatalities are not acceptable, and there is still a lot of work to be done with regards to our drive to zero harm. We start the operational report with the North American region, where Nevada is home to 3 of our Tier 1 mines as well as many of our more interesting future prospects. At the same time, we continue to progress the giant Donlin Gold project in Alaska with an intense winter drilling phase as we search for more opportunities to grow our business in the Americas. These are the operating results for the Nevada Gold Mines. As expected, production was lower following the record quarter 4 performance driven by the processing of high-grade stockpiled ore while the Gold Strike mill was being repaired. Plans are in place and KPIs are being monitored closely to ensure that the full year guidance will be met. In the meantime, Turquoise Ridge's third shaft is on track for completion this year, which will continue to support operational improvements there. Results from drilling across the Nevada projects continue to highlight the huge potential of these systems as new targets are developed and resources are expanded. At Turquoise Ridge, geological modeling of the BBT Corridor to the South highlighted the potential for significant additional ounces, with early drill results indicating this opportunity. Drilling between and within the legacy Twin Creeks and Turquoise Ridge operations is transforming our understanding of this area, and we continue to make changes to the models with implications for exploration. One of the strongest untested geochemical anomalies in the district has been identified at the fence line target on the legacy boundary between the 2 operations, and shallow drilling is in progress to define vectors for a deeper core drilling project later in the year. North Leeville continues to grow as we step out around the maiden resource of 700,000 ounces declared at the end of last year. Resource delineation drilling is defining additional ounces, while further drilling is planned to test the open extensions of high-grade structures around the deposit. North Leeville remains one of our highest potential near-mine satellites in Nevada. And REN is another expanding opportunity. Last year, we declared a maiden inferred resource of 1.2 million ounces, and recent results have not only confirmed the model but have continued to expand the JB Zone resource to the South. Mineralization remains open at both JB and Corona Corridors. We have initiated various mining studies on the geotechnical ventilation and dewatering parameters to optimally design this part of the mine. Over now to Latin America and Asia Pacific, which ended the quarter having made significant progress with its growth projects. In PNG, we continue to get closer to reopening the mine following the passing by parliament of legislation necessary for our agreed fiscal arrangements. We expect to complete the remaining outstanding agreements in the next quarter. Our planned midyear restart is expected to be delayed by 1 more quarter. Pueblo Viejo, as I indicated earlier, is a solid Tier 1 asset, which delivered a plan regarding production and costs on the back of record throughput, which bodes well for the future long-term performance of the operation. The new tailings storage facility, a key part of the transformational upgrade and expansion project, is continuing to advance down the development path, with the ESIA application expected to be filed in quarter 3. At Veladero, the mine delivered on a planned lower production for the quarter despite being partially impacted by COVID-related absenteeism in January, and the mine remains on track to meet the 2022 guidance. Construction of the Phase 7 leach pad also remains on track, with the second phase expected to commence in the final quarter of this year. You will have also seen the announcement of our agreement with the government of Pakistan and the province of Balochistan to reconstitute and restart the Reko Diq Project, which has been waiting in the wings for more than a decade. It's an extremely exciting project, up there with the best of the best copper deposits, with the added attraction of a significant gold endowment. Since the agreement was signed, there has been a change of government in Pakistan, but this is not expected to negatively impact the process. In fact, I'm due to meet the new Prime Minister later this month to review progress. Reko Diq is another good example of Barrick's partnership philosophy. We'll operate it, but it will be owned 50% by Barrick, 25% by well-established Pakistan state-owned enterprises, and 25% by the province of Balochistan. The various underlying agreements are currently being finalized. When that's done, we'll start to update the existing feasibility study, which should take around 24 months. As such, Reko Diq could be in production in 5 to 6 years, which is a very short timeframe for a mine of this size. Turning now to Africa and the Middle East. This region finished the quarter ahead of its gold production plan on the back of the usual strong performance from the flagship Loulo-Gounkoto and Kibali operations. At Loulo-Gounkoto, the key production driver was higher grades. Per ounce cost metrics were well managed despite the impact of higher energy prices and increased logistics costs from the continued sanctions and border closures imposed on Mali, albeit operations at Loulo-Gounkoto remain unaffected. The Loulo district’s key mineralized corridors continue to deliver exciting results. Bambadji, across the border in Senegal, is one of the more prospective pieces of ground in our West African portfolio. The team there is prioritizing large controls likely to host potential significant deposits. At Loulo, drilling north of the previously mined P129 satellite deposit has also defined mineralization over 600 meters with some high-grade intercepts, while the results have also highlighted the potential to extend the Faraba Complex satellite deposits. As we planned, production in Kibali was lower than the previous quarters due to planned maintenance and waste stripping. Production is expected to improve this quarter, and the mine, like the others, remains on track to achieve its annual guidance. Like Loulo, Kibali continues to maintain its record of replacing reserves depleted through mining. Resource conversion drilling from underground is successfully defining the potential for sustained growth over and above depletion for both 2022 and beyond. In Tanzania, both North Mara and Bulyanhulu are on track to meet their annual guidance. The quarter 1 performance largely reflects the impact of planned maintenance at North Mara and the development of new headings plus the removal of legacy underground waste at Bulyanhulu. North Mara's ramp-up of its open pit operations is on schedule, and the project is designed to further derisk the mine by providing it with another source of mill feed and improved production flexibility. A quick look at the copper portfolio. With Jabal Sayid and Zaldívar both delivering production and costs that were in line with or better than guidance. Zaldívar's chloride project was commissioned, providing the infrastructure for enhancing future production. As expected, waste stripping impacted Lumwana's production, but its performance is forecast to improve steadily throughout the year. Exploration at Lumwana continues to access multiple targets in parallel, redefining the geological models for existing targets and identifying new projects. The overall aim is the definition of an alternate ore source that can provide production flexibility while the Chimi super pit pre-stripping and associated infrastructure upgrades are completed. Early results from ongoing drilling at the Lubwe target are encouraging and show the potential to extend the mineralization a further 1 kilometer to the North. So with gold prices remaining high, driven by global geopolitical and economic fears, it's worth noting the unparalleled leverage our portfolio of 6 Tier 1 gold mines gives Barrick. For every $100 per ounce rise in the gold price, the attributable free cash flow generation by our operations over a 5-year period increases by around $1.5 billion. The same is true of our copper assets. For every $0.50 per pound increase in the copper price, the attributable free cash flow generated by those mines over 5 years rises by about $800 million. Strong cash flows generate peer-leading returns to shareholders, as shown in this slide. The distribution policy inaugurated this quarter effectively doubled the dividend by adding a $0.10 per share performance element to the $0.10 per share base dividend. On an annualized basis, this equates to a yield of approximately 3.5%. The new formula also has the advantage of giving the market guidance on potential future dividend streams. While we don't believe our current share price fairly reflects its inherent value, it has performed respectively against spot gold prices, and the GDX has shown for these periods. This leads me to what I believe is the compelling thesis for investing in Barrick. It includes the peerless quality of our asset base, our proven long-term strategy combined with reality-based implementation plans, our ability to more than replenish our reserves, our long constantly replenished prospect pipeline, our approach to sustainability, characterized by tangible on-the-ground action and measurable results, and of course, the strength of our balance sheet. But perhaps the characteristic that most distinguishes Barrick from its peers is our focus on Tier 1 assets, selected against a set of very clear investment criteria and supported by our ability to operate in both developed and developing countries. There's an old saying that if you're looking for elephants, you have to go to elephant country. We've searched for and found Tier 1 assets in parts of the world that presented challenges that daunted other mining companies and then proceeded to successfully develop and operate them. While we continue to invest in pursuing new Tier 1 opportunities across all 3 regions in which we operate, our next stop right now looks to be Pakistan, where once again, perseverance, partnership, and patience have put us on track to deliver one of the world's greatest mining opportunities to our shareholders, our partners, and all our other key stakeholders. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attention, and the team and I are happy to take any questions.

Our first question is from Greg Barnes with TD Securities.

Mark, I just want to understand the timing around the permitting of the new tailings facility at Pueblo Viejo. You said you're going to file an ESIA in Q3. So that would suggest you've picked the site. I was wondering how long it's going to take the government to approve that site. And then the site you've picked, is there going to be a significant delta in the capital cost for the PV expansion, depending on which site you do pick? How much will the CapEx potentially change, up or down?

Just to take you through, I think we've shared this with you before. We've been through a lot of sites, more than 50, but we really got down and evaluated around 22 sites. We shortened that down to 5 sites, and then we passed all our assessments to 2 independent engineering firms to audit our process and pass it back to the government. As a consequence, the government then reviewed our selection criteria, and we have, as the government announced, reached an agreement on a way forward for the final selection of the sites. We are looking at 2 sites at the moment, both in the same province as the mine. We're currently doing invasive evaluation for the foundations of the walls and also making sure that we don't have any open aquifers that might put the storage of material at risk and whether we have to line it or not. That work is ongoing and we should be ready to file our application for the environmental permit soon. We are forecasting to do that early Q3. It's a matter of working alongside the government in this process, so we don't see any reason that, that process won't continue as it has in the last couple of quarters. Our plan is that we should certainly be in a position to determine that the project is approved soon, potentially by the end of this year or even early next year. That won't change the process. That's the first part of your question. We are currently engaged in consultation on a couple of infrastructure areas that might be affected by our infrastructure. The first involves moving material on a conveyor belt. We are consulting with the communities that might be impacted by the final decision. We've also been looking at a buffer zone, which will involve relocation. We've done the first round of consultation on that basis. On the cost side, the original estimate was around $1.4 billion, including around $900 million for the expansion of the plant and associated infrastructure. We're looking at the tailings dam for which we estimate between $800 million and $900 million. Final estimates will come with advanced designs once we've completed the foundation drilling, particularly on the dam wall. The wall has to be engineered properly because it's a seismic area. It is also important to clarify that we will build the wall as we go, rather than constructing it fully at the beginning. The shortlisted facilities certainly cover the current forecast life beyond 2040. I want to emphasize that the returns of this asset are significant; they certainly meet any conceivable capital cost and our 15% return based on $1,200 gold and $2.75 copper. We don't produce copper at this stage in Pueblo Viejo, but it passes the test. We're very comfortable about this project; it's a significant opportunity that realizes the original Pueblo Viejo investment made 10 years ago.

So how far away are the 2 sites from the plant, and how many people have to be relocated approximately?

They are the closest of all the sites. Grant, do you want to comment on that?

Yes. As you said, the sites are fairly close to the mine and not too far from the existing tailings facility itself. In terms of the numbers around the resettlement, that's something we still need to assess, and we'll have a clearer picture of the exact numbers in the next couple of months.

And Greg, as soon as we've got it, this is a process. As soon as we have definitive framework agreements, we'll share them with the market immediately.

The next question is from Cleve Rueckert with UBS.

I wanted to just zoom out a little bit big picture on what the guidance means. I think gold prices and copper prices are tracking a little bit higher than where they were in Q1. Mark, you talked about production rising, and you should get some cost absorption there and costs fall. Is there any reason to think that free cash flow wouldn't be higher sequentially in the second quarter than what it was in the first quarter?

Sure, that's a fair observation. But let me say this all is impacted by tax and when we pay tax. I'll pass it on to Graham to take you through that.

Yes, that's right, Mark. It's very important to note, the second quarter is traditionally our lowest cash flow quarter. It's driven by two key factors. The first is that we pay interest on our bonds semiannually, so that's in the second quarter and the fourth quarter. The second quarter also has our highest cash tax payments. That's when we make the most significant payment. When we look at our internal forecast for cash flow, quarter 2 is noticeably lower. That said, we will see some benefits from some of the Kibali cash distributions that came through in the first part of the second quarter. So that will assist, but it is generally our lowest cash flow quarter.

Okay, that's helpful to understand. And then, taking that one step further, sticking on the capital allocation theme, you didn't buy back any stock in Q1. I think at the pace you're going, you're very quickly going to be up in the top level of the graduated dividend framework. If you get to that top level where the special performance dividend is maxed out, would you think about raising it? Is that the point where you think about buying back stock? Or should we think about the buyback as being more opportunistic relative to the share price?

The last part of your question first, if we get to that level, that's a high-class problem, and we'll manage it when we get there. The key about the ability to buy back stock was that last year we got caught where our market share price was significantly undervalued, and we realized we didn't have a tool to handle that. We had too many shorts in our stock, and it would have been great to just go and buy up the stock and burn off the shorts. Now we have that tool available. That's exactly what it's for; when we feel that our stock price is underperforming on a relative basis, we'll definitely buy back that stock. The situation we have is very fluid, and we monitor equity values daily.

Okay, we'll just stay tuned on the dividend.

The next question is from Matthew Murphy with Barclays.

Just had one on the gold unit cost guidance, $730 to $790 now headed to the higher end. Just wondering if you can break down some of the drivers. If you go from the midpoint to the high end, call it, $30 an ounce, would half of that be your energy price assumption? That's the kind of breakdown I'm wondering about.

I will pass this to Graham for the granular answer, but I want to point out that the lower production this quarter, as we lift production back to guidance, will temper that unit cost profile. This is not the base on which to work on, just to give it some perspective. Graham, do you want to pick up the detail?

Yes, Matt. You're right. The biggest chunk of that cost driver is very much energy prices, both diesel and gas. We previously gave sensitivities on that. For every $1 change in the barrel price of oil, that gives about a $6 increase on our total cash costs. When you look at energy prices from where we were previously looking at sort of $70 and now they're over $100, you can see that makes up the biggest chunk of that movement. Then we have other specific commodities where we're seeing price pressure, such as ammonia nitrate, cyanide, and steel balls. Many of these have been specifically impacted through the Ukraine crisis where you've had suppliers, either in Russia or Ukraine, that are no longer available. Therefore, you're seeing a squeeze on those markets.

Got it. Okay. I saw you're trying to hire for Goldrush. Just wondering how you're seeing the Nevada labor market these days.

Sorry, Matt, just one thing. Just to clarify, I said $6, but I meant $6 per ounce for every $10 change in the barrel, just to be clear.

So the labor market in Nevada is tight; we've been restructuring the whole Barrick Human Resource. We have just finished a global engagement with our executive teams looking at progressing our vision of much flatter structures, deeper reach into our organization, and more accountability. We've replaced about 90% of the people we employed last year, and we've retained them. So again, as we change the profile of our employment base, we're slightly higher on turnover. However, year-to-date, we've replaced significantly more than the resignations or those who left. So while there is a challenge, there's also an opportunity as we redefine management and leadership structures across the Group.

Your next question is from Anita Soni with CIBC.

I just wanted to get a bit of clarity on that cost number. You said it's headed towards the higher end of the $730 to $790 guidance range. I think you said moving to the order of about 2% to 3% as a result of higher oil prices. So is that 2% to 3% over the $790, or is that just the 2% to 3% that’s getting you out of the mid-range and towards the $790?

The latter; it's the latter. However, I need to point out that there's no magic in managing inflation; it is what it is. We've still got some challenges, but we've been very focused on synergies and efficiencies. We've just rolled out a new global data platform. Our managers and operators have access to real-time data. We're very agile and obsessed with our numbers and the ability to respond intra-day to changes. Our team is driving hard to manage inflation while also identifying efficiencies. We've adjusted it upward again at this presentation, and we're going to keep a sharp focus on inflation and how we manage that.

Okay, that's a good answer. The second question was regarding CapEx. So I think I had you guys spending $611 million this quarter. I think the guide was $1.9 to $2.2 billion. You're spending a bit over on a quarterly run rate, which is bucking the trend of what others have done, which has been underspending. Good that you're finding people to do the work, but does that mean that you'll revert back towards the guidance of $1.9 to $2.2 billion, or could we see this sustained level of spending?

No, I think we're profiling capital more regularly due to where our big projects are. Remember, we're coming to the end of the #3 shaft and some ongoing capital for the PV expansion. We're glad to see that we are indeed spending capital, which is essential for delivering on the benefits of those expansion or efficiency projects.

Your next question is from Lawson Winder with Bank of America.

Mark, thank you for today's update. At risk of putting too fine a point on it, I'd like to ask again about the buyback. You've stated that you'll acquire your shares when they're trading below what you consider intrinsic value. You mentioned earlier that you'll enter when it's relatively underperforming. It would be helpful for me to square those two statements. Is intrinsic value perhaps based on a bit of a moving gold price target?

Yes, there are many variables that impact that along with the actual market itself, Lawson. You are focusing on this decision too finely. We don't want to get stuck like we did last year without tools to deal with a soft share price. It's an interesting time right now. My strategy is to focus on building a value-focused organization by reducing debt, emphasizing the best people to run our top-quality assets, and addressing critical points that concerned analysts and shareholders. We've also strengthened our balance sheet to the point where we are now independent of the market, and we are a very different organization today than we were three years ago. We know that by delivering value, people will want to own our stock.

And if I may ask one more question. What are your latest thoughts on the potential to grow copper production in Zambia, particularly regarding expansion at Lumwana, building a new mine, or potentially acquiring existing assets?

The opportunities include all you mentioned. Right now, we are focused on delivering more efficient, streamlined operations, particularly in Lumwana, where we've uncovered opportunities to enhance flexibility in our operations. We have established strong relationships with the Zambian government, and there are many opportunities that meet our investment filters. Zambia has a new, business-friendly government willing to collaborate with long-term investors. We've also beefed up our exploration competency in the Central African copper belt and are looking for strategic opportunities there.

The next question is from Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank.

A lot of my questions have been answered, but I do have 3 remaining. The first is a thank you for the quarterly guidance provided on the assets within your press release. Can you guide us on whether we are seeing progressive quarter-over-quarter improvement with a strong Q4 portfolio? Are we 45-55 production first half, second half or somewhat 48-52? I'm just trying to get a feel for the portfolio quarter-over-quarter.

Of course, we strategize to bring forward quarter 4 production wherever possible. Your ranges of 45-48 and 52-55 are realistic estimates. Graham, do you want to add anything?

Yes, that’s right. It will be progressed through the quarters.

Perfect. That answers my question. I wanted to return to inflation. About 40% of your cost structure is labor. Are you seeing any labor pressures? Additionally, do you have any labor agreements that need to be renegotiated this year?

The team in Nevada has done an excellent job negotiating with the union that we inherited in the deal with Newmont, and that's set for another year. Labor engagements mostly in South America and Africa are largely through. We're not seeing significant inflation across the other regions; it's really focused in the United States. We're managing it, and while there's an opportunity for new projects, we don't see ourselves struggling with applications. We want individuals who align with our vision and DNA, focusing on building a strong foundation of human capital.

Okay, so it sounds like you don't have any contracts due this year.

No, we don't have contracts that would risk our organization.

What about supply chain contracts? Are any up for renewal?

No, we've taken out hundreds of millions of dollars from supply chain procurement costs and still have more work to do before we're efficient. Riaan Grobler's team has done exceptionally well managing COVID impacts and other recent supply chain crises. We shifted our inventory management to improve efficiencies significantly and secured long-term contracts to ensure stability.

What are you seeing on the capital side? With the increase in inflation, how may it affect your ongoing capital projects?

The big capital projects are impacted mainly by steel costs, but we have pre-purchased most of our required steel for PV and Turquoise Ridge #3 shaft. Although logistics delayed some of our infrastructure, it's already factored into our forecast. There has been no material impact on our ongoing projects from what I see.

I would just add that sustaining capital has a more energy-driven aspect, so small pressure may come from that, but we don't expect to exceed our capital guidance.

On Porgera, Mark, you mentioned negotiations are going well, but it appears we will slip a quarter. Should I be thinking Q2 of 2023 as a full ramp-up for that operation?

Yes, that’s a reasonable assumption. While we cannot engage in physical mining, we are still preparing equipment and have about 1,000 people employed, with plans to take that up to around 2,500. We have signed the PPCA, and most importantly, received the necessary legislation approvals ahead of the elections. We have one signature outstanding on the shareholders' agreement for the Special Mining License, and as soon as we get that sorted out, we'll be moving forward, with an expected start in October.

The next question is from Mike Parkin with National Bank.

Regarding PV, can you remind us what your current tailings facility has in terms of capacity? Is there a tight spot in terms of getting the new one approved for initial deposits of tailings?

We've got headroom out to 2027 with additional investments. We expect to be ready to process that long before then. Grant, do you want to give more detail?

Yes, Mark, you're right. We do have a buffer until 2027, and we can elevate the tailing wall further with redesign if needed. But we don't see that as necessary currently, as we construct the new TSF.

Mike, does that answer your question? Thanks, John and Grant.

The next question is from Jatinder Goel with BNP Paribas.

I have a question related to your record analogy, Mark. While acknowledging your experience of working in challenging jurisdictions, what is your approach to risk assessment? There are potentially dangerous elements to assessing risks in countries with no mining history, a volatile regime, and the project has a difficult history.

Those projects pass a hurdle rate of around 15% at $1,200 gold and $2.75 copper. We don’t change that standard. It's unfair to blame the Mongolian government for Rio's renegotiation of contracts, as that was due to their failure to deliver on the original plan. Every project has its challenges, and we've built a strong reputation for delivering on our commitments which create a license to operate. This is an asset that has been effectively with Barrick for over a decade. The partnership involves the government of Pakistan, working together to enhance the local economy while ensuring community benefits. We have a very strong relationship with the Pakistani government and are focused on making a positive impact on the local communities.

Was there anything else competing against this project for capital? Or is the quality of geology so attractive that other projects struggle to compete in your near-term time horizon?

We have another major project in partnership with NovaGold in Alaska, but we are never going to sequence world-class assets that meet our filters. We can afford to pursue them concurrently. Reko Diq fits under our LatAm and Asia Pacific region while Donlin fits under the North American region. We will continue to invest in opportunity when it meets our criteria.

The next question is from Adam Josephson with KeyBanc.

Mark, you mentioned earlier about your stock trading at a discount to what you consider to be at fair value. On the last call, you talked about this discount compared to Newmont. How do you balance your desire to invest in Tier 1 assets with some investors' perception of risk regarding your willingness to operate in what they consider risky jurisdictions?

If you look at our performance against GDX over various periods, you'll find that we're performing well in the market. Yes, Newmont's been higher recently, but this is a long-term game. We've turned a company once burdened with over $4 billion in net debt into one with a positive net cash position of $700 million. We are sustainably profitable, paying out $3.5 billion over the past three years. Mining is inherently risky, but our approach is to partner with the host countries to create value while managing that risk successfully. A poor asset in a good country is still a poor asset, while a good asset in a challenging environment can still be successful.

Regarding inflation, has your thinking shifted on your gold price assumptions for budgeting purposes given the changes in the environment?

We have a policy, a formulaic approach, and we regularly review our long-term gold price, which we set based on input costs. Fluctuations in inflation will naturally affect our cost side, but we maintain our discipline in how we operate and plan for changes. We look at that at the end of the year as part of our reserve declarations.

There are no more questions on the conference call.

Well, thank you, everyone. That was quite an exhaustive set of questions. I appreciate the interest. Again, we'll be seeing some of you in Miami next week, and some of our team will also be at PDAC in Toronto. If you have any further questions, please reach out to the team; we're always very committed to providing the right information. Thanks again, and have a good day.

This concludes today's conference call. Should you have any additional questions, please contact the Barrick Investor Relations department. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.