Hyatt Hotels Corp Q3 FY2020 Earnings Call

Thank you, Denise. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Hyatt's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on today's call are Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joan Bottarini, Hyatt's Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started, I would like to remind everyone that our comments today will include forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and other SEC filings. These risks could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by our comments. Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued yesterday, along with comments on this call, are made only as of today and will not be updated as actual events unfold. In addition, you can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures referred to in today's remarks on our website at hyatt.com under the Financial Reporting section of our Investor Relations link and in yesterday's earnings release. An archive of this call will be available on our website for 90 days. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mark.

Thank you, Brad. Good morning and welcome to Hyatt's third quarter 2020 earnings call. I want to begin today by recognizing every member of the Hyatt family around the world. As we all know, this is an incredibly challenging period we are living through and one that is expected to last far longer than any of us could have imagined. I continue to be inspired by my colleagues every day. Their embodiment of our purpose and the excellence in ingenuity with which they are engaging to maximize our opportunities are remarkable. Our purpose of caring for people so they can be their best defines why we exist and has long been fundamental to who we are as an organization, and it is vital during interactions with guests, customers, hotel owners, travel advisers, and with each other. In addition, the powerful way in which our teams around the world have put their skills into practice with excellence, creativity, and agility in reimagining our business has been stunning to see and highly effective. Our teams have successfully created safe and fulfilling guest experiences, and as a result, have maximized our operating results in this low demand environment. It is clearly evident that we have the right team of people around the world to lead us through these challenging times, and we intend to build upon and leverage the strength of our brands as we recover and drive industry-leading growth and expanded profitability in the future. I'd like to now provide some color on what we are seeing in our business and how we're thinking about further recovery over time. Leisure travel has been the primary source of demand and continues to drive the recovery to date. So let me start there. During our second quarter call, we discussed the leisure-driven occupancy levels we were seeing through the first half of the summer as the strict lockdowns experienced during the second quarter began to be relaxed. We continued to see increasing demand through the remainder of the summer and into September. The strongest demand we've seen in the U.S. since the pandemic began was during the Labor Day holiday. We experienced continued strength through September and October, with modest increases in average occupancy levels over the period driven heavily by weekend business where occupancy percentages were running in the low 40s, while mid-week occupancy percentages were running in the high 20s. We've seen booking activity continue to show small improvements since Labor Day. And it's noteworthy that TSA data for October 18 showed over 1 million travelers in a single day for the first time since March 16 this year. That said, we are mindful of the recent increases in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and Europe, and the resulting increase in restrictions being put into place in many jurisdictions. We expect these enhanced restrictions to have a negative impact on travel in the near term, and this could result in flat or perhaps reduced fourth quarter demand compared to the third quarter. Leisure demand continues to be concentrated in drive-to leisure destinations. We have also seen significant outperformance by our select-service brands as compared with our full-service brands. On average, our open Hyatt Place and Hyatt House hotels ran occupancy levels of approximately 46%, which was well ahead of the roughly 30% occupancy levels at our open full-service hotels. We're pleased with the relative performance of our select-service hotels as they are gaining share with an increase of over 1,000 basis points compared to already strong RevPAR index levels in the U.S. during 2019. We're seeing similar or even greater increases in international select-service hotels. These brands have consistently proven to be preferred by guests in the upscale segment, and this has continued to hold true through the early stages of recovery this year. Shifting to Greater China. Occupancies in most areas of Greater China, excluding Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, have reached pre-COVID levels as the rebound in domestic travel has fully replaced inbound travelers. We also continue to drive very strong RevPAR index results in China, a continuation of our second-quarter performance. The strength of our brands, combined with the operating excellence of our teams, has led to continued outperformance versus the competition with an over 900 basis point increase in RevPAR index across Greater China. Travel demand in China also continued to show strength beyond the end of the third quarter. During the Golden Week holiday from October 1 through October 8, over 45% of the population traveled, and we realized a 17% increase in RevPAR and a more than 35% increase in spend on food and beverage as compared to the same period in 2019. Leisure transient demand continues to lead the recovery in Greater China, but we are also seeing some meaningful recovery in both transient business travel and group business. As a percentage of realized demand in Greater China during the quarter, group business was at similar levels to 2019 and business transient was only off approximately 200 basis points. Notably, on the group business front, we continue to host new product launches for car manufacturers as well as luxury goods companies with extraordinary new programming that leverages our deep strength in banqueting and events. We view the China experience as an example of the strong desire people have to travel and gather, and the type of demand you might see elsewhere once travel restrictions lift and fear around the virus ceases to be such a limiting factor for travel. With respect to ASPAC markets outside of Greater China, we're seeing continued improvement in demand in South Korea, which increased Q3 RevPAR levels by over 25% compared to the second quarter, and in Japan, which has started to show some improvement off of lower second quarter levels, with RevPAR increasing approximately 20% quarter-over-quarter. The majority of markets in the ASPAC segment, however, continue at low levels of activity given border closures and travel restrictions that remain in place. I'd like to now cover some forward-looking demand factors that we are paying close attention to. As stated, drive-to leisure has been and will continue to be the primary source of demand that leads the recovery for the foreseeable future. Business transient and group business, however, will both be necessary ingredients in achieving full recovery and in supporting better rate realization. We continue to see near-in group business cancellations consistent with what we saw last quarter and have now seen meaningful cancellations in the first quarter of 2021 group business. While the impact on second quarter 2021 business isn't nearly as significant yet, we are starting to see cancellations and believe we may experience additional attrition over the coming months. Large group business demand is heavily linked to confidence around widespread vaccine availability, effective therapies, and scalable rapid testing solutions. We're cautiously optimistic about recovery in business travel in the second half of 2021, and we are encouraged by the advances in rapid low-cost testing. We've seen events in Southeast Asia facilitated by testing protocols, and travel authorities in the U.S. and Europe continue to advance the procedures that would be put into place for bilateral market travel without quarantine requirements. Having said this, we're prepared for the first half of 2021 to be challenging even as new solutions are launched because it will take time for confidence to build. Group business on the books for the full year of 2021 at this point is down about 40% from where we were last year heading into 2020. While large group business has essentially disappeared, we're having some success with targeted small group business, including bubble programs for customers in professional sports, entertainment, emergency response workers, and universities. Our teams have reimagined our approach to group business with shifts towards regional meetings and cross-property cross-market hybrid solutions, and we've had some success with industries such as restaurant franchise groups, pharmaceutical companies, construction, and certain manufacturing businesses. Our teams are working with customers to design new hybrid solutions and exploring potential rapid testing protocols for 2021 events. We are concurrently developing promotional offers and programs to attract business that is more social or leisure-oriented to fill in weekday gaps left by corporate and association business. With respect to business transient demand, we're hearing mixed messages from customers depending on the nature of their business and the impact the pandemic is having on them. A limited number of our customers are seeing increases in business activity and expecting business-related travel to increase early in 2021, but many of our largest customers, such as professional services and consulting companies, are suggesting a slower return to normalized travel levels with continued limitations on travel through the first half of 2021. The one thing we have learned since the beginning of this COVID-19 experience is that predictions made beyond the very near term are unreliable as the human experience continues to evolve in ways that require continuous learning and adaptation. Touching on our owned and leased hotel outlook. We had just over 80% of our owned and leased and joint venture hotels open as of the end of the third quarter, and we expect overall demand for the majority of these hotels to continue to face pressure well into next year. Our teams have done an excellent job reimagining our operating model to drive impressive results despite overall third quarter RevPAR levels that were lower than 2019 levels by more than 80%. Demand in some of our drive-to resort and leisure destinations, such as Lake Tahoe, Nevada, Lost Pines outside of Austin, Texas, and Huntington Beach, California, was quite strong. However, the majority of our owned hotels are urban, business, and group-oriented properties, and they continue to face significant headwinds. As we look forward, we expect we'll have about 5 of our owned and leased and joint venture hotels closed for the foreseeable future given conditions in particularly challenging markets such as New York City. I'd like to now discuss our continued progress in driving long-term growth. Third quarter, we delivered net rooms growth of 6% on the heels of 5.8% net rooms growth for the second quarter. While there has been disruption in the development cycle with likely implications for future periods, I'm pleased to say that we've overcome a number of challenges to drive two straight quarters of strong growth. Consistent with my comments last quarter, we expect our full year net rooms' growth to be above 4%. Our third quarter openings included three conversions contributing 30 basis points to our net rooms' growth. The conversions include the Hana-Maui Resort, which joined our destination brand and becomes our third resort on the island of Maui. The other conversions during the quarter were the 300 room Hyatt Regency Lanzhou, located along China's Yellow River, and the 400-room Hyatt Regency Doha. We continue to see meaningful conversion opportunities and expect to complete additional conversions in the coming quarters. The third quarter also marked the openings of 18 additional Hyatt Place or Hyatt House hotels, including Hyatt Place Boston/Seaport. This 297-room hotel is conveniently located in the heart of the Seaport District, overlooking Boston's harbor walk and is the result of a joint development effort with an important development partner and owner of ours. Other notable openings during the third quarter include our reentry into New Zealand, with the opening of the Park Hyatt Auckland, as well as the introduction of our second Andaz hotel in China with the opening of the Andaz Xiamen. While not included in our third quarter openings, I'd also highlight our recent openings of the Hyatt Centric Center City Philadelphia, Grand Hyatt Nashville, and Hyatt Regency West Hanoi, all opened during the month of October. The 332-room Hyatt Centric in Philadelphia is located in one of the city's most desirable neighborhoods, a block off of Rittenhouse Square, and represents an important addition to this fast-growing lifestyle brand. The 591-room Grand Hyatt Nashville opens as the cornerstone of the 18-acre Nashville yards development in the heart of Downtown Nashville, with 77,000 square feet of event and function space, a world-class spa, and multiple food and beverage outlets, including one of the highest outdoor rooftop lounges in Nashville, along with the continental restaurant, an award-winning by the award-winning Chef, Sean Brock. Finally, the 519-room Hyatt Regency West Hanoi is a conversion of an existing branded hotel and represents the first representation in Vietnam's capital city. We maintained our pipeline at 101,000 rooms after opening more than 4,300 rooms in the third quarter, representing an increase of approximately 10% in our pipeline from the third quarter of 2019. We continue to see full-service growth opportunities globally, including both new builds and conversions. As I mentioned last quarter, we've seen very limited new development activity for select-service hotels in the Americas due largely to financing limitations and underwriting challenges. We are, however, starting to see an uptick in discussions in this space and believe significant demand for these development opportunities will return once capital availability improves for new development. I also want to highlight that our third-quarter pipeline additions include 13 UrCove signings with an expectation that as many as 5 of these hotels will open in China during the fourth quarter of this year. In fact, 3 of these hotels were opened during October. You may recall our announcement a bit over a year ago regarding our new joint venture with Homeinns to develop the UrCove brand designed to cater to the underserved upper-midscale segment in China. Homeinns operates a large number of hotels in China, and the venture is expected to rapidly develop UrCove offerings around the country targeted at China's growing middle class, with many of the openings coming by way of conversions of existing properties. We are excited to have officially launched this new brand and believe it will provide significant opportunities to engage with an expanded and growing customer base in China. I'll conclude my prepared remarks this morning by saying that we were encouraged by continued improvement in leisure demand during the third quarter and believe that our reimagination of operations has yielded optimized operating results in this low demand environment. We're particularly pleased with our performance in Greater China and the share gains we've captured both in China and our select-service hotels here in the U.S. We believe the remainder of the fourth quarter could be challenging due to the impact of the current surge in COVID-19 cases we see in multiple markets, and we expect that economic recovery will continue to be uneven and weigh on results into the first half of 2021. Having said this, we remain confident in the enduring desire of people to travel and in the ability of our teams and brands to drive preference when we begin to see and experience tailwinds from a return of confidence to travel globally. As Joan will describe to you, the strength of our balance sheet and effective management of our cash flow positions us well to navigate the uncertain timing and pace of recovery with confidence. Meanwhile, we continue to execute on our long-term growth strategy. Another strong quarter of net rooms' growth and continued new construction and conversion activity speaks to the strength of our brands and the effectiveness of our development teams in leveraging that strength to identify opportunities to build on those brands and expand our global distribution. Finally, and most important, is the fact that the Hyatt family continues to live our purpose and drive the kind of performance that is not only sustaining us through this challenging period but positioning us for enhanced strength and profitability as we achieve full recovery over the coming years. I'll now turn it over to Joan to provide additional detail on our operating results.

Thank you, Mark, and good morning, everyone. Late yesterday, we reported a third quarter net loss attributable to Hyatt of $161 million and a diluted loss per share of $1.59. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was negative $48 million, with a reported system-wide RevPAR decline of approximately 72% in constant dollars. As was the case in the second quarter, our reported system-wide RevPAR declines are impacted by both the inclusion of closed hotels in the calculation and by our chain-scale composition, which includes significant exposure to upper upscale and luxury properties and to top 25 markets in the U.S. that have been weaker than other markets since this pandemic began. While we had 92% of our hotels or 88% of our rooms open as of September 30, the impact of closed hotels on our third quarter reported system-wide RevPAR result was about 800 basis points. Our system-wide RevPAR in the third quarter was down 64% from last year, excluding closed hotels. I'd like to now provide a few additional details on our operating results for the quarter. Our management and franchising adjusted EBITDA showed significant improvement over second quarter levels, driving profitable results, which more than offset corporate and other adjusted EBITDA losses. Our management and franchise fee revenue decreased by 70% compared to 2019 levels despite a 72% reduction in system-wide RevPAR. Fee revenues were helped by contribution from new hotels opened over the past year and by incentive fees driven almost entirely from Greater China. Mark mentioned earlier that China and select service were our primary areas of strength during the quarter, and they collectively made up about 55% of our total third quarter management and franchise fee revenue. Our owned and leased segment RevPAR decreased 83% compared to 2019. With 13% of our owned and leased segment hotels representing 22% of the rooms closed as of the end of the third quarter, the impact of closed hotels on our reported RevPAR decrease was 1,300 basis points, and therefore, RevPAR decreased 70% relative to 2019 levels, excluding those closed hotels. Owned and leased adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was a loss of $56 million, about half of which was driven by closed hotels during the quarter. The quarterly loss was better than our expectations due to strong performance from resort hotels in the segment. We also realized some benefit from certain government subsidies that may not continue into the fourth quarter. The impact on demand from the increasing spread of the virus, combined with the reduction of certain benefits realized during the third quarter, could weigh on fourth quarter results for the owned and leased segment. Finally, I want to comment on our occupancy progression for all hotels globally and breakeven levels. Mark mentioned the improvements we've seen in transient demand over the quarter. For the month of September, 84% of our open select-service hotels were running occupancies in excess of 30%, and approximately 32% of our full-service hotels were running occupancy levels in excess of 40%. I cite those thresholds in reference to our previously disclosed historical hotel EBITDA breakeven levels of 40% to 45% for full-service hotels and about 10 points lower for select service hotels. Our cost savings measures and operational efficiencies have pushed breakeven levels down to the bottom of those ranges. I'd now like to provide an update on our liquidity. As a reminder, during our second quarter call, I reviewed the steps we had taken during the quarter to secure additional liquidity and the positive results we have seen in our cash burn versus our original expectations. During the third quarter, we secured additional liquidity through the issuance of $750 million in short-term prepayable bonds. We issued the bonds under favorable market conditions that allowed for efficient execution and pricing. The bonds have a 2-year maturity and are prepayable at par any time beginning with the first anniversary of issuance. The proceeds from this bond offering fortify an already strong liquidity position as we navigate uncertainty in the profile of the recovery. During the third quarter, our monthly cash burn, excluding severance payments and other one-time costs, decreased from our second quarter cash burn. Our operating cash burn improved meaningfully, partially offset by some incremental working capital support for third-party owners due in large part to the extension of certain system services fee concessions to the end of 2020. Over the second half of 2020, I'd note that timing of certain payments related to annual insurance premiums and property taxes for our owned hotel portfolio as well as some incremental investments supporting new deal growth are expected to lead to uneven monthly cash burn results. Notwithstanding variability and monthly cash burn due to timing, our overall trend on cash burn has improved and is expected to average no more than $60 million to $65 million per month based on third quarter demand levels. As of September 30, our total liquidity inclusive of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, combined with borrowing capacity, was approximately $3.6 billion, with the only near-term debt maturity being $250 million of senior notes due in the third quarter of 2021. We believe our existing liquidity, excluding proceeds from the $750 million short-term bond issuance, which has a maturity inside of our cash burn runway, supports our ability to operate a third quarter 2020 demand levels for more than 36 months. While we believe third quarter demand levels could persist over the near term, we continue to view these conditions as temporary and expect improvement in travel restrictions — when travel restrictions are lifted and demand increases, and therefore, expect our monthly burn rate to continue to improve over the recovery period. Looking forward, I would reiterate that visibility remains extremely low in this environment, but I'd like to share some color on a couple of items as we look ahead to 2021. As we communicated earlier this year, we've reduced capital expenditure significantly and expect a low level of outflow for the remainder of the year. Looking forward to 2021, we presently expect total capital expenditures of approximately $100 million. Shifting to SG&A. We've previously disclosed the significant steps taken to reduce our SG&A this year, and those steps included headcount reductions and reductions in variable costs. Looking forward to 2021, we expect to maintain reduced resource levels and cost containment discipline through the recovery. As a result, based on our current outlook, we believe 2021 adjusted SG&A, excluding bad debt expense, will reflect a reduction of approximately 25% from our original 2020 adjusted SG&A guidance of $320 million. Finally, I'd like to briefly comment on earnings sensitivity by reminding you of our previously communicated earnings sensitivity levels. Our earnings sensitivity illustrated that a 1% change in RevPAR levels using 2019 RevPAR as a baseline results in an impact of approximately $10 million to $15 million in adjusted EBITDA. This guideline should generally continue to hold true at today's demand levels, with the earnings sensitivity being at the high end of that range in the near term. We look forward to sharing more color on 2021 during our fourth quarter earnings call. I will conclude my prepared remarks by saying that we're pleased with our third quarter performance led by the momentum of leisure demand and overall financial management discipline that resulted in strong operating results and better cash preservation despite difficult conditions. While we expect economic recovery to remain hard fought over the coming quarters, we've secured additional liquidity and believe we are very well positioned to leverage our strong brands and the capabilities and creativity of our talented teams around the world to navigate what will likely be a volatile period of recovery. Thank you. And with that, I'll turn it back to Denise for Q&A.

Mark, you alluded to some of this in your opening remarks, but what does the experience, I guess, when you put it all together in Mainland China, tell you about the potential path of business transient and group recovery in other parts of the world as COVID cases ultimately come under control and/or vaccinations become more widespread?

Thanks, Stephen. First of all, it's extremely encouraging. You see activity amongst our customer base, which is very consumer-focused. I mentioned new product launches, which have really proven to be an important piece of group business that we realized in this past quarter, especially. And what we're seeing is a remarkable evolution of the constraints that people live under with respect to how they gather. And part of that has to do with the fact that their whole approach has been to reduce the caseload to virtually 0 or close to 0 and then leverage the opening and accelerate that. I think most of the rest of the world is now contending with a different approach, which is not actually reducing the caseload to 0 at the inception, but rather, trying to isolate and manage through surges. At this moment in time, those surges are pretty widespread. So I — the way I look at it is ultimately, the vaccine — a widely distributed vaccine will make a huge difference. But in the meantime, we're seeing or we're spending a lot of time looking at how we can use rapid tested platforms to basically create highly assured bubbles, environments where all the people that you interact with when you come into a venue have been tested over a several day period. And we effectively can guarantee that nobody is infectious as you walk into that space. And I think that's going to make a big difference with respect to leisure group travel, weddings and other gatherings, but also very importantly, business. So I guess what I would tell you is the demand has been stunning to see. We said earlier that the total demand is actually back to 2019 levels, actually overcoming the absolute absence, effectively, of inbound traffic from international destinations. So I look at it and I think that it's a wonderful indicator that once we get to a point where people can actually have real confidence in stepping into an office, if you're going back to the office, which I think is important to business transient travel, or into a meeting space, I think it will make a big, big difference, and we'll see a significant inflection point.

To Mark and Joan, I feel like some of the commentary we heard about what we're expecting to see for the balance of Q4 was maybe a little bit more cautious or conservative than what we've heard from other hoteliers out there thus far during earnings season. So I just kind of wanted to see if you could dig into that a little bit. Specifically, are you seeing any actual evidence of sort of second wave impacts thus far as it relates to maybe travel cancellations or near-term policy changes? Do you think it could just be given certain urban exposures that Hyatt specifically has? Or is this just broader caution on your part given what you expect to occur?

Shaun, it's Mark. I'll start and then turn it over to Joan about how we're seeing demand, and so forth. You highlighted a key point. If I only looked at the data we have so far, I wouldn't be cautious in our outlook. However, that's not very useful. It's clear that caseloads are rising daily, reaching new records in many states in the U.S. and Europe. We're anticipating this trend will continue. We understand the virology and epidemiology of this virus; it is taking hold and will remain an issue in the near term. There are reports suggesting when we might see an inflection point, possibly around Thanksgiving, but it's difficult to predict. Based on what we're observing regarding the virus's progression, we have to expect that this will influence demand in some manner. Have we seen evidence of it yet? No. Are we clear that what we observe is likely to have an impact? Yes. That's how I would summarize it. Joan, would you like to add?

Yes. What I would add is that whenever I get this question, I want to emphasize how low visibility is. We're measuring the booking window in days, and while it has increased slightly recently, it isn't significant. However, there are some areas that are starting to open, and we are noticing an increase in bookings for Hawaii and the Caribbean for the festive season, which is encouraging. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how they will handle travel and any potential disruptions due to testing or cases in the coming months. We mentioned earlier that demand has been relatively stable throughout the quarter. July was likely the lowest month for occupancy, but occupancy increased in August and September in most regions globally, with a similar trend continuing into October. Overall, the quarter saw a 72% decline on a reported basis, including all hotels, while October recorded a 70% decline. We are observing sustained demand and are closely monitoring the short booking cycle, looking forward to the regions that are opening up, and remain hopeful for continued momentum.

Just a first quick housekeeping question. Can you maybe help us understand the big step-up sequentially quarter-over-quarter in the short-term investments on your balance sheet?

I think it's really a cash management issue, but do you have any further...

Yes. I think it's more a classification issue of some shifting between cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments. So there's no meaningful change there to highlight.

Just on the unit growth, you've been putting up really impressive 6% growth in the past two quarters. I just wanted to understand why you would expect it to potentially decline to 4%. And last quarter, you talked to 4% to 4.5%. This quarter, you talked to over 4%. Does that suggest embarrassment? Or am I parsing your words too much?

I didn't quite catch that. What did you say? It's an important question and I want to clarify the situation. You're right to identify the issue. The key factor here is mathematical. We have consistently reported our pipeline. First, let me talk about the pipeline briefly before returning to net rooms growth. When we mention signed contracts, we're not discussing approvals for future developments; everything reported as pipeline is confirmed and ready for future development, and we assess that these projects will receive financing. I want to emphasize that our pipeline numbers are validated in this manner. Regarding NRG, it's also a mathematical calculation. We consistently report a trailing 12-month number. In the fourth quarter of 2019, we experienced significant net rooms growth of around 7,400 rooms. While we expect a strong fourth quarter this year, it will not reach that figure. This is the first factor that leads the math to a lower level than the 6% we've been averaging. Additionally, in the first quarter of this year, we closed the Ocean Resort in Atlantic City, which accounted for 1,400 rooms, representing about 70 basis points of net rooms growth, and this will factor into our trailing 12-month period once we report in the fourth quarter. I'm very optimistic about our new development and openings. We've successfully maintained new openings in the second and third quarters, which has contributed to ongoing net rooms growth, with the last quarter being particularly strong. Conversions also play a vital role in this overall situation. For instance, in 2019, conversions constituted over 25% of our net rooms growth, and we are on track to surpass that this year. If this trend continues, I feel confident about our net rooms growth for the year. However, due to the math I've described, it will be at a reduced level.

All right. Thanks, Denise, and thank you to everyone for taking the time to join us today. Take care, and we look forward to speaking to you again soon.