Robinhood Markets, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Thank you to everyone for joining Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s Q4 and full year 2025 earnings call. Whether you are tuning into the livestream or here with us in person. With us today are Chairman and CEO, Vladimir Tenev, CFO, Shiv Verma, and VP of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations, Chris Koegel. Vlad and Shiv will offer opening remarks and then open the call to Q&A. During the Q&A portion of the call, we will answer questions from the audience, which includes institutional research analysts, finance content creators who may hold an ownership position in Robinhood Markets, Inc., and both institutional and retail shareholders. As a reminder, today's call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from our current expectations, and we may not provide updates unless legally required. Potential risk factors that could cause differences, including regulatory developments that we continue to monitor, are described in the press release we issued today, the earnings presentation, and our SEC filings, all of which can be found at investors.robinhood.com. Today's discussion will also include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the GAAP measures we consider most directly comparable can be found in the earnings presentation. With that, please welcome Vlad and Shiv.

Well, hello, everyone. It's great to speak to you today. We are back with a live audience, this time from our global headquarters in Menlo Park, and for the first time with Shiv as CFO, following in Jason's big footsteps. Welcome, Shiv. Great to see all the shareholders and institutional analysts in the audience. So let's get right into it, shall we? As a reminder, we are focused on our three-part strategy: number one in active traders, number one in wallet share for the next generation, and our long-term mark, number one global financial ecosystem. Looking back on 2025, it was an incredible year with incredible product velocity across all three of our arcs. First, active traders. We want active traders to feel like they are at a disadvantage trading anywhere but Robinhood Markets, Inc. It's a big priority for us, and we are seeing big results. In Q4, prediction market volumes doubled, more than doubled yet again, with over 12 billion contracts traded in 2025, which is the first full year of prediction markets. Customers have already traded over 4 billion so far in 2026, so we are seeing the momentum continue. We also expanded our equities offering with the launch of shorting. We love giving our customers more tools to navigate the markets, and we see them responding. Over 11 billion of equity notional volume in the first couple of months since shorting went out. Second, wallet share. We continue to make progress building out our financial super app and becoming our customer's primary and secondary financial account. A lot of attention typically goes to our active trading offerings, and it should, but we have also been making a ton of progress broadening our offering and attracting more long-term investing to the platform. Over 40% of our total assets are now across ETFs, advisory, retirement, and cash. It's great to see customers trusting us with more of their financial lives. Robinhood Gold Card, up over five times in 2025 to 600,000 customers. It's reached over 10 billion in annualized spend. Customers love the product. They love the 3% rewards, but also the intuitive user experience, the metal card, and the solid gold card and capabilities like single-use cards and all the family features. As we have been rolling out the card, we built increasing confidence in the economics. We plan to continue accelerating the rollout, more than doubling the number of customers with gold cards this year to well over a million by the end of the year. Robinhood banking. We began the rollout of Robinhood banking in the past few months. Customers are really excited about this. We are building the kind of banking experience that was once limited to the ultra-wealthy. Strong early results with our initial over 25,000 funded customers who have brought in over 400 million in balances. Perhaps the thing that gets me most excited, over 50% of our funded customers using banking enrolled in direct deposit. This makes us more confident that we are achieving product-market fit with this offering. Now, third arc, global financial ecosystem, our long-term arc. We are making good early progress as we expand to different markets across the world. Bitstamp continues to scale volumes up two times since we closed in June. Bitstamp and engineering teams have been humming, so it's great to see so much progress here. We are also making progress expanding internationally, now with three-quarters of a million customers outside the US. Just last week, we launched ISAs in the UK, which is the local tax-advantaged account in the UK. This was actually the top request from our UK customer. I'm excited to watch these businesses scale as we launch in more and more new jurisdictions and we round out the product offerings. I think in a couple of years, we are going to look back, and we will really have underestimated how big our international business can be. Taking all of this together, our relentless product velocity has driven another strong year of results. Strong double-digit year-over-year market share gains across equities, options, crypto, and margin. By the way, this includes positive net transfers and positive inflows from all of our major brokerage competitors for the last eight quarters in a row, which is pretty amazing. I think we have a lot of headroom here. Our customers grow faster than the industry. We continue to deliver new products and capabilities. We see our customers continuing to trust us with more and more of their financial lives. Total platform assets grew nearly 70% year over year to 324 billion. Net deposits, a record 68 billion, which is a 35% growth rate. Gold subscribers grew nearly 60% year over year to 4.2 million. Revenues, putting it all together, which were less than 3 billion a year ago, grew to 4.5 billion in 2025. It’s great to see that 50 plus percent revenue growth for the second straight year. Quite amazing. Before I get into our 2026 roadmap, which should be very fun, I'll turn it over to Shiv to walk through more of the business and financial results. Alright. Over to you, sir.

Thank you, Vlad. I'm excited to be here for my first earnings call. To get started, there are three key takeaways I want to get across. First, 2025 was a record year for Robinhood Markets, Inc. with strong growth and profitability. We had records across net deposits, gold subscribers, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS, just to name a few. All of this was driven by incredible product velocity and our relentless focus on efficiency. We also finished the year strong with a record Q4. Revenues and adjusted EBITDA were both records, and 2026 is off to a good start. Now second, our business continues to diversify. We are now up to 11 businesses with over $100 million in annualized revenue, and several more are making great progress, including Robinhood Legend, which is really close, and the gold card, which is on track for this year. Additionally, Trade PMR, futures, index options and Robinhood banking are all scaling really nicely. And third, in 2026, we plan to ramp up our product velocity even faster while delivering another year of profitable growth. There is a massive opportunity in front of us, and we see the path to compound shareholder value for years to come. Alright. So let's review 2025 results, and this is all compared to last year. First, revenues were a record 4.5 billion, up 52% year over year, as Vlad said, and up over three times in the past three years. Adjusted EBITDA was also a record of 2.5 billion, up 76%. Adjusted EBITDA margins were also a new high of 56%. We also delivered incremental adjusted EBITDA margins above 70% for the third straight year. At the same time, we managed our share count closely, leading to record EPS of $2.05. Our philosophy is that the denominator matters. Over time, managing the share count closely should deliver value to shareholders. Let's look at Q4, and this is all compared to last year as well. First, revenues grew 27% to a record 1.3 billion. Our customers remain engaged and continue to trust Robinhood Markets, Inc. with even more of their assets. Net deposits were robust with $16 billion of net deposits in Q4. That's our eighth straight quarter with over $10 billion of net deposits. Trading volumes grew to new highs across equities, options, futures, and event contracts as we continue to win market share and saw record net buying from our customers. Interest-earning assets were also up 39% driven by strong growth in the cash sweep program, margin, and our credit card loan book as we continue to win larger customers and deepen relationships with existing customers. Margin, in particular, has been great, up over 100% in the past year. Robinhood Gold, that also grew 58% to a record 4.2 million subscribers. We believe gold is the best deal in financial services, and we are going to keep adding to its value proposition. On expenses, Q4 adjusted opex plus SBC was $597 million as we managed expenses to approximately $15 million below our latest outlook. Now, let's move to 2026. As we built our annual plan, there are three areas that we focused on. First, we want to continue accelerating our product velocity. Customers are responding incredibly well to our new product initiatives. We are gaining market share, launching innovative products and entering new markets. We believe shipping even more products and value to customers can deliver outsized growth for years to come. Second, we aim to deliver another year of 20% plus net deposit growth. This year, we reached nearly a third of a trillion dollars in assets across the platform, and we are well on our way to exceeding a trillion of assets in the coming years. With our rapid product velocity and the $100 trillion plus generational wealth transfer already underway. And third, we built our plan to deliver another year of profitable growth. Even as we invest for growth, much like the robust revenue growth we have seen over the past few years, we are staying lean and disciplined in the way we allocate capital and operate as a business. Our expense outlook for 2026 is in a range of 2.6 to 2.725 billion. This translates to an 18% year-over-year expense growth at the midpoint, which is below the 22% growth rate we managed to in 2025 on a comparable basis. Just to give you a little bit more color on how we built the plan, the 18% expense growth is in three areas. First, about five percentage points of that growth are going into our existing businesses, net of any productivity improvements. These businesses drove the vast majority of our $1.5 billion of revenue growth in 2025, and we want to keep scaling them and gaining market share. Second, about three percentage points are from the full-year cost effect of our 2025 acquisitions of Bitstamp and TradePMR. These expenses will also come with a full-year effect on revenue growth as well. Third, about 10 percentage points or more than half of the 18% growth is into new and scaling businesses. This is our biggest area of investment as we continue to accelerate product velocity. Some of these investments include the Robinhood Gold Card, Robinhood Banking, strategies, prediction markets, Cortex, Robinhood Social, Robinhood Ventures, the Robinhood Chain, and tokenized real-world assets. It's a pretty long list. As a reminder, we underwrite all investments to strong ROIs, and we'll stay nimble as we execute against our plan. I also want to share a little bit on what we are seeing with the strong momentum into 2026. In January, trading volumes were up over 50% year over year and options volumes were up 20%. We also had all-time highs in net buying, event contracts, futures, and margin. While it's early, so far in February, the average daily trading volumes are up across all categories versus January levels. Q1 net deposits are also off to a good start, with $7 billion plus so far in the quarter, including over $2 billion last week. It's fantastic to see customers engage to start the year. Putting it all together, we are incredibly excited about our plan and momentum entering 2026 as we work to drive another year of profitable growth. The team continues to ship for customers, and our financial north star remains the same: maximize earnings per share and free cash flow per share for shareholders over time. Vlad, back to you.

Thank you, Shiv. You are starting to get a taste of what this killer next to me can do in the CFO position, so very excited. We compromised, by the way, Shiv prefers to stand, so we decided to do half the earnings call seated and half standing. Just over a year ago, we shared with you our ten-year vision for Robinhood Markets, Inc. at our Investor Day in New York City. We were excited about it back then, felt it was very ambitious, but I think in hindsight, we realize we underestimated what we could do in one year, not to mention ten years. Today, I'm going to tell you what we have planned for 2026. We are by no means complacent. This is going to be an ambitious plan. As we continue to execute, Robinhood Markets, Inc. will become increasingly synonymous with the financial service category, as the financial super app. Let’s get right into it, starting with what we are doing for active traders. Now I'm not going to go into every little detail of the roadmap. I'm going to prefer to focus on areas that are particularly meaningful and maybe surprising. Prediction markets. Fastest-growing business in our history. $300 million plus run rate in its first year. I think we are just at the beginning of a prediction market super cycle that could drive trillions in annual volume over time. This year is going to be a big year. Olympics are going on right now. World Cup coming in the summer. Continued growth in the non-sports categories, and of course, our Rothera, which is our joint venture with Susquehanna coming online. Growth of prediction markets has also led to a greater focus on our app design and personalization. We have been adding so many new products, so many account types, lots more capabilities. That it's becoming increasingly important to personalize and continue to chisel the user interface, making sure we are putting the right things in front of the right customers. Many of you have already noticed the work that we have put in here in the past few months through changes to the home interface, search, and discover, as well as notifications. This year should see this accelerate. With more personalization, better cross-asset linking between equities, crypto, and prediction markets, and us continuing to experiment to ensure that our user experience remains top-notch. Then Cortex. Two big things. Cortex Assistant in the main app, and the goal is to become the best AI for all of your financial needs. Cortex for Legend to use as an analogy, think of Cortex for Legend being to active traders what Cursor is to software engineers. We think it has the potential to completely transform trading. We are at the frontier there. Both are rolling out in the coming weeks and months and scaling throughout the year. Robinhood Social. So Robinhood Social will start rolling out to the first customers very soon. We are really excited about how it will drive discovery and engagement. We are going through internal testing and we actually just added support for prediction markets into Robinhood Social, and it's looking really good. As we progress throughout the year, I think it will be increasingly obvious that active traders are at a disadvantage using any other platform. Turning to wallet share. Now as a reminder, this is about transitioning from serving predominantly traders to serving all of our customers' financial needs. Two big strategic moves that we are making this year that I'm particularly excited about. The first one, we are calling family investing. Robinhood Markets, Inc. should be better for you when more of your family members are on the platform. This year, it will really become a multigenerational platform. This vision started with the credit card, which was our first family product. It continued with banking, which is also a first-class family experience. In 2026, you'll see us bring it to our investing products. Our referral program for advisers is also going live this year. This will connect our customers to high-quality RIAs powered by TradePMR, to help them with their comprehensive financial needs. We believe we can be the major beneficiary of the $100 trillion plus wealth transfer. We have some really exciting things to unveil coming on this front at our big event next month in New York City. So stay tuned for that. The second big thing, private markets. You may have heard me say opening up private markets can resolve one of the greatest inequities in capital markets, but also can be a huge accelerant to our mission as well as our business. This begins with Robinhood Ventures. For those of you unfamiliar, Robinhood Ventures will invest in private assets that are often out of reach for retail investors, and these will be packaged and registered funds that we can offer to US retail investors. I think this will be a transformative offering. Outside of the US, our customers in Europe got a taste last year of private company stock tokens with our OpenAI and SpaceX stock token giveaways. More to come on that front soon. We think private markets could become even bigger than prediction markets. I’m really excited about what we are building here. Finally, building the number one global financial ecosystem. The big theme here is tokenization. It's early in the tokenization industry, but we have built a leadership position already. We now have 2,000 stock tokens available to customers in Europe. A big part of 2026 will be seizing the tokenization opportunity, which we think is massive. This means two things: permissionless twenty-four-seven tradable public company stock tokens and private company stock tokens, making them actually real and useful for customers. Our tokenization work dovetails quite nicely with our efforts on DeFi, which continue to accelerate. Over this year, we'll be launching and scaling Robinhood Chain, our layer two, making it the best chain to trade real-world assets. More on this coming soon. We'll continue to improve Robinhood Wallet, which will provide a first-class experience to Robinhood Chain. We are also going to bring our centralized and DeFi products closer together to deliver the best of both worlds to our customers. You will also see us continue to push into new geographies with several new international markets coming later this year. Before we go to Q&A, I want to share a little more about our progress with AI. I went in earlier about Cortex, what we are doing to bring Cortex to our customers, both on the mobile app and Legend. But we have also made a lot of progress using AI internally. When we began this journey a couple of years ago, it became clear to us that we should double down on two areas that we believe would move the needle the most from AI usage, and they are software engineering and customer support. AI customer support is really cranking. Over 75% of our cases are solved by AI, including the complex cases that previously required licensed brokerage professionals. We have built a lot of this tech in-house. In AI and software engineering, our goal is to be the best in the world. We have been focusing on making it as easy as possible for our engineers to get access to new model releases and new capabilities like background agents. We are continuing to see nice results. This year, we are continuing to automate and optimize the engineering pipeline from writing code down to code review, all the way to deployment and testing. This is already turning into real savings and efficiency gains estimated at nine figures in 2025 alone. This is a big reason why we have been able to drive such high product velocity while keeping our costs down. 2026 is shaping up to be much bigger. In addition to CX and engineering, I'm pushing every team at Robinhood Markets, Inc. to integrate AI into their operations with the goal being best in class at AI, across every function. We started thinking about near-term progress we wanted to make on this vision last summer. Its meaningfully changed since. The first draft barely had prediction markets. Robinhood Ventures became a real thing and AI continues to make progress. I think this shows you our edge is really staying flexible and nimble. I’ve been really proud of how fast we move at Robinhood Markets, Inc. Looking ahead, you can expect us to keep that startup hustle despite our large size. The roadmap is full. There's so much to do. Let’s go to some questions. Welcome back up.

Alright. Thank you, Vlad. Thank you, Shiv. For the Q&A session, we are going to start by answering shareholder questions from Say Technologies. After the Say questions, we'll turn to live questions from our audience. So I'll kick it off with our first question from Say. Coming from Matt S.

Hello, Vlad.

Good to see you. How are you doing?

Good. Good to see you. So my question is, any additional updates on Robinhood Social?

Yeah. Robinhood Social, very, very exciting. As I mentioned, we are testing it internally. We recently added prediction markets, which I think has made it clear that this is not just a tool for ideas, but also discovery of new assets. I think one of the reasons why these products have not resonated super well when other companies have tried them is the diversity of content has been relatively low. But now you look at Robinhood Markets, Inc. where we have so many customers and so many assets, the diversity of content is actually quite high. We are building increasing confidence that this is going to be a great tool for discovery and engagement. So marching towards public launch, I think you'll see that in the coming months, but we are pretty close.

Alright. Thank you, Vlad. The next question I'll read on his behalf from Rohit P. who asks, what could be the reasons for the more than 40% drop in Hood's share price? And how is leadership addressing the downslope?

Yeah, great question. I'll maybe start. We are really focused on the inputs of our business. And we love the inputs that we are seeing. You heard from me and Shiv last quarter and really last year was a year of continued market share gains across pretty much everything. Net deposits of $68 billion through the year, $16 billion in the quarter. This means customers are increasingly trusting us with more and more of their assets. As I look forward to the roadmap of the year, we have a pipeline of new things that are either in relatively early stages of rollout, such as Robinhood banking, or have yet to roll out like Robinhood Social Cortex Assistant, which I think could be transformative. The inputs are looking good, and I’ve been through this now as a public company founder and CEO for what, five plus years. We have seen a couple of cycles up and down. We think that over the long run, the business performance tends to lead stock price. Our focus is just on building for customers and making the product better.

Yeah. Couldn't agree more. We are focused on our customers. One point I'll add is we also have over a billion-dollar share repurchase program. During periods of market volatility, it's a really great time to lean into that program.

Alright. Well said. Thank you for that. The last question from Say is from Luke D. who asks, what is your guys' plan on navigating the rough sea during this crypto downturn and the end of football season? How can we see Robinhood Markets, Inc. extend its roots to not be so heavily affected by these things?

Yeah, I mean, I'll start with what we are seeing in the product. So crypto, we are moving toward a world where crypto is actually more than an asset class. It's foundational technology that will underlie the trading of all assets, and you are seeing that with our efforts with tokenization outside the US and, of course, the Stablecoin partnership with Paxos on USDG. In the future, you'll see crypto and traditional financial services increasingly merge, and of course, people will talk and trade Bitcoin and other assets, and we continue to be long-term bullish on those. We are not getting distracted by short-term fluctuations. Prediction markets, there were questions about what would happen as the NFL season comes to a close. But what we are actually seeing is surprising us. In January, for instance, NBA contracts surpassed NFL in trading activity on our platform. Relevant non-sports contracts are generating significant volume. For example, in the week after the NFL season ended, the government shutdown contract on our prediction markets platform was driving significant volume. What you are going to see is even though it's now largely sports, prediction markets are more than sports. As we continue to diversify the contracts offered on the platform and improve customer experience, more contracts will continue to resonate. This is going to be a big year for sports as well. We’ve got the Olympics, right now. Got the World Cup later, in addition to March Madness and the NFL season. We are just at the beginning with our prediction markets business.

On the business side, a couple of things I'll add. We now have 11 lines of businesses that are doing over $100 million in ARR. We continue to diversify there. On the crypto front, we are long-term bullish, but it's important to remember while we did close to a billion dollars of crypto revenue last year, it was only 18% of our overall revenue. So we love what we are seeing, but more than 80% still comes from outside of crypto. On prediction markets, it’s growing. We are diversifying across sports, non-sports, and different asset classes. While the growth rates are great, again, relative to our overall business, it's a smaller portion. So big picture, diversifying. We keep shipping for customers, and we love both these business lines.

Alright. Thank you. That concludes our shareholder questions from Say Technologies. Thank you again to Matt for joining us live. Now we'll move to Q&A from the in-person audience. We ask that each person who's interested in asking a question raise your hand and limit yourself to one question. Alex, would you like to ask a question?

Yeah. Thank you. Alex Markgraff from KeyBanc. Vlad, maybe on the prediction markets front, with the close of the JV, can you give us a sense as to what the team is working on and from a product standpoint outside of a greater list of contracts? What we might expect this year.

So, thus far, if you've been watching closely, you've really seen us refine the down funnel trading experience, particularly with sports. We've added more tools like combos and player contracts for traders that want to go deeper. We have started leveraging our advantages: we have lots of assets on the platform. We can connect things together to show you related contracts contextually. We've also completely revamped search and discovery as well as home to make them multi-asset and include prediction markets. One thing is how are we going to show prediction markets? Contextually, where it's relevant to customers across all of our app services. Can we show relevant ones in the stock detail pages? So that, you know, if you are considering investing in an equity, you get the whole picture of not just the options contracts but also the prediction markets that are connected. I think you'll see more of that. You’ll see first-time prediction market customers, which we are seeing an increasing number of people coming to Robinhood Markets, Inc. not because they want to trade equities or crypto but because they have heard of our prediction markets offering, they want exposure to that. So streamlining that, so if you are a first-time prediction markets customer, we not only make it easy for you to get into the product but also make it such that we can cross-sell you to, you know, things like retirement or other products. I think that's an area where we have a unique advantage being a super app.

Great. Thank you, Vlad. Other questions from our in-person audience?

Good afternoon and thanks for taking the question. You hear me?

We hear you and see you. Looking good.

Thank you. You recently added Indonesia as a new market. Hoping you might be able to expand a little bit on international expansion. Where do you see or what are the best markets in which you plan to invest? How do you compare and contrast the attractiveness, the opportunity set in those markets? And also the go-to-market strategy? And perhaps if you could differentiate between Europe versus Asia.

This year is going to be a big year for international expansion. In the markets that we have already been live in, namely the UK and EU, you are going to see us continue to round out the product suite and respond to customer feedback and also introduce new platform-level capabilities that are more outside the US but can scale to every country. For example, wallets, which we recently introduced in the UK. The UK recently added stocks in shares, ISAs. In that market, we are going deeper and we want to start going into market-specific functionality leveraging our technology platform. The EU is a test case for what Robinhood Markets, Inc. could look like if it was built entirely on crypto technology. We don't have traditional stocks there, but we have stock tokens. We are pushing hard on tokenization. By the end of this year, you'll see that tokenized offerings will be better than the traditional offerings. We are going to continue to close the gap with other offerings in the EU as well. We have three-quarters of a million international customers; I think you'll see that getting into the millions relatively quickly. We will look back and say this business scaled much faster than we predicted.

Awesome. That's really helpful. Thanks a lot. Alright. Thanks, James. The next question is from Dan Dolev at Mizuho.

Hey, Vlad. Hey, Shiv. Congrats. Good to see you, man.

Thank you. Thanks for having me. Great results as always.

There's been some news today about your competitors on the impact of AI, and I'm scratching my head, thinking, isn't Robinhood Markets, Inc. sort of the best AI company out there? Why aren't these things actually huge tailwinds for you?

I think they are. If you look at AI, it's going to completely transform all aspects of financial services. On the trading side, we have the bets we are making on Cortex on Legend and also Cortex in the app. We think Cortex Assistant, which is the AI assistant integrated into Robinhood Markets, Inc. is rolling out in the coming weeks. We are refining it internally, and that's going to roll out to customers very soon. You are going to see a lot of transformation in the industry. There will be amazing self-serve tools, giving users an advisory-like experience where individual users will call the shots. The other is the workflows of an actual human advisor will be reimagined, allowing them to service more customers at lower costs. We have efforts underway for both. Cortex providing advice to customers has made progress. It’s just a matter of ensuring that rolls out safely, and we believe it has the potential to transform the wealth management industry.

Alright. Thank you, Dan. The next question is from Steven Chubak from Wolfe.

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. You mentioned underwriting to strong ROIs when building your expense plan. Anything we should infer about the level of revenue growth that you are budgeting for when building the plan? How much flexibility do you have given your commitment to achieving profitable growth and the significant inroads made in embedding AI to drive greater efficiencies over time?

Great, great question. Thank you, Steve. A couple of things I'll point to. First, our mantra is still profitable growth. We are a growth company; we are going to invest for growth. We are seeing great things from our customers, and we are going to keep doing it profitably. For us, that means we expect revenue to grow faster than expenses. In terms of ROI, we underwrite each opportunity on a standalone basis. If it's a new product, we look at long-term IRR and margins. More importantly, can it scale? It used to be, hey, a $10 million business, but now it's can this be a $100 million business in a few years? That's a focus for us. Every time we do marketing, we look at payback periods and incrementality to ensure great investments. Can we stay nimble? Absolutely. We are a technology company at heart. About 85% to 90% of our costs are fixed, giving us a lot of flexibility to adjust. Overall, we don’t want to oversteer. You are going to see us invest for growth. We love what we are seeing.

Alright. Thanks, Steven. The next question is from Devin Ryan at Citizens.

Okay, we'll go to the next question. Almost there. Yeah. Alright. Patrick Moley from Piper. You are up.

Yeah. Can you hear me?

We hear you.

Alright. Great. Thanks for taking the question. I had another one on prediction markets, but I was hoping you could put a little bit more meat on the bones around Rothera. You know, we estimate that you could see a 45% bump in economics if customers utilize contracts that are listed on your own venue. Could you just talk about some of the puts and takes there? You know, why not migrate all of your prediction market volume onto this joint venture over time? What are the benefits of continuing to partner with other prediction market venues?

Our primary North Star is how to deliver the best product experience to our customers. We do anticipate that a significant portion of our volume will move over to Rothera, but that's not our North Star. Our North Star is giving customers great pricing and the best experience. On the brokerage side, you've seen it with crypto with Bitstamp, and you've seen it with our equity routing. There is no change; we will prioritize execution quality. That's not going to change depending on the asset.

On the economic side, customers today pay $0.02; 1¢ goes to Robinhood Markets, Inc. as the FCM, and 1¢ goes to the exchange. When we have Rothera, we control the full unit economics. Your 45% number references that we own 45% of the JV. Susquehanna owns 45% and Mayex owns the other 10%. We will control the full product stack and full monetization. We are excited to get it online for both product experience and for monetization as well.

We are also open to other futures commissions, merchants, and other counterparties connecting and competing for that business, you know, not just providing an additional execution venue for our orders.

Thank you, Patrick. The next question is from Evan from Stock Market News.

I appreciate you guys for letting me ask the question. Congrats on the fantastic quarter as always. I want to ask you guys a little bit more about Robinhood Social in 2026. How do you guys view targets and stuff there this year? Also, do you view that as an international segment, or is that something you are really focused on in the US first? Thank you.

With this product, since it benefits from a dense network, we want to ensure that the product experience works well and integrates nicely into the rest of Robinhood Markets, Inc. You'll likely see us launching and scaling it in the US before international. But over time, I think you'll see it come international as well, particularly as the translation technologies get better.

Alright. Thanks for your question, Evan. The next question is from David Smith with Truist.

Hi, good afternoon.

Hello.

Institutional volumes on Bitstamp saw a nice pickup in the fourth quarter even as retail volumes declined from the third quarter, like Robinhood Markets, Inc. app volumes. Could you comment about how you expect that institutional retail mix to evolve over time given your plans for the product offerings and any thoughts on pricing across both retail with the app and Bitstamp as well as the institutional pricing? Thank you.

We have been really excited about the growth in Bitstamp. Our team has been cranking, and you’re seeing an increase in market share and an increase in revenues. When we first started talking to our institutional customers, they had some basic complaints. Their biggest request for improvement is making sure that all of their packets are properly processed. We've made low-hanging fruit improvements in exchange resilience and reliability; there are plenty more to come. All of our offerings are attractive to institutions, and we have a great recipe for bringing in retail volume, which in turn makes it more attractive for institutions to quote and make markets on the exchange.

On the retail side, one big change we made last year is we moved to smart order exchange routing. We want to be competitive for all types of customers. For the competitive customers, we found that we actually need to lower pricing, which we did, and now we have the volume tiers. You saw a little bit of this in Q4 where there was less market volatility, and the casual trader stepped away, but we saw strong engagement from more active traders. Because they are on the higher tiers, the pricing comes down a little bit. We don’t goal the teams on pricing; that's an output metric. We continue to win market share.

Another thing I didn't mention but which we are very excited about is the growth in our perpetual futures offerings outside the US. We've continued to make that product better and better, giving active traders access to better tools and flexibility on the leverage. We're getting really good feedback, so expect more exciting things this year.

Alright. Thank you very much, Vlad and Shiv. The next question is from Brian Bedell with Deutsche Bank.

Great. Thanks. Thanks very much. Can you hear me okay?

Yes.

Maybe just back to prediction markets. Vlad and Shiv, what is your appetite for launching contracts in fundamentals, so things like on KPIs and other earnings metrics that you could potentially link in with your equities trading business? So like an active trader experience that would also have a layer of fundamental investing as opposed to the other. And then just on the timing of Rothera, any info on more, you know, sort of precise timing on when you might launch that?

We are very interested in the potential to list more prediction markets around company KPIs and fundamentals. More we create an ecosystem of information and products around individual stocks, the more useful that'll be for customers. There are some company-related prediction markets already; you can see things like Tesla deliveries. As far as financial KPIs, we need some regulatory relief. We continue to have conversations about that.

On the Rothera piece, our goal is to get it operational. It closed last week, and we are targeting by the middle of this year, so stay tuned.

Alright. Thank you, Chris. We'll now go to the next question. You have a second shot at this. Devin Ryan from Citizens.

Alright. You guys see me now?

Yes, we do.

Okay. Good. Hey, Vlad. Hey, Shiv. Another AI question, and the question is really combining tokenization kind of instant settlement twenty-four-seven with AI. The future of agentic AI could seemingly allow for exponential scaling of creating volume, maybe micro-lending and a lot of other applications. It would be great to get thoughts on how you see tokenization and AI coming together. Do you think the timeframe for that to happen is? What does that mean for Robinhood Markets, Inc.? You seem really well-positioned, but I see it as something that could exponentially change transaction activity. We'd love to get your thoughts as well.

One of the compelling reasons we are interested in tokenization outside the US and unlocking access to DeFi for our stock tokens is integrating with these offerings. It makes it easier and more interoperable to write agents and have software that integrates. The integration on the blockchain side is much easier than typical API integrations with brokerages. I think it's going to be exciting to watch. It's a little early to proclaim that a specific chain will become the way that AI agents communicate and pay each other. But we believe that by offering tokenized stock offerings and our stablecoin partnership with Paxos, we will be well-positioned to compete for the agents’ business in that world.

Alright. Thanks, Devin. The last question is from Roy with Crossroads.

Hey, guys. Good to see you. Thanks for having me. My question was on international expansion as well as Rothera. Specifically, as you are rolling out internationally, I'm curious how you prioritize which products to initially launch. Is there a potential scenario or market where we see prediction markets being the first?

I thought you were going to ask me about that 50% direct deposit attach rate on our banking offering. You want to know about international prediction markets. We will see; right now, markets for us are US only. As I mentioned, with the EU, we have like crypto-powered Robinhood Markets, Inc. on crypto rails. We also have the ability to scale our traditional brokerage business outside the US, so in addition to traditional prediction markets ex-US, there's the possibility of rolling out on-chain versions. But I think you should expect some movement, we don’t have anything concrete to announce.

Thank you. The next question is from Ramsey El Assal from Cantor.

Hi, guys. Thank you for taking my question this evening. Was wondering if you could comment further on the push into private markets in terms of the asset types that will be available through your platform and any color on sort of timeline and or regulatory or operational hurdles you need to get through to seal those products? Thanks.

Shiv has been running this product, in addition to being CFO, so I'll let him speak to it.

We are super excited about private markets. Big picture, we are in the quiet period for our first offering. Our N-2 is publicly on file with the SEC; we can’t say too much more than that. We’re excited to get this out for customers. When you look at the vision, the goal is that any private assets that have not been traditionally offered to retail, you should be able to offer these in 40-act registered funds. These vehicles hold all types of assets, which can be private equities, real estate, and credit. We think about them based on what our customers are looking for and what they’re engaged in, but you should see us offer all of these asset classes over time, so stay tuned.

Alright. Thank you, Shiv. The next question is from Ed Engel from Compass Point.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. How are you thinking about the opportunity around Trump accounts and their launch this year? Have you heard anything about how these could be structured or whether Robinhood Markets, Inc. could play a special role here?

Unfortunately, I can't share too much of the details, but we've been involved in this effort from the very beginning. We were part of the first summit on Trump accounts at the White House. I think this is a game-changing initiative. It’s one of the few initiatives that pretty much everyone agrees on regardless of the political spectrum and is very in line with our mission of making sure that everyone benefits from our financial markets. We've said if we are fortunate enough to play a role, we will give our best people to make sure that the effort goes smoothly and is of high quality.

Alright. Thank you. The next question is from Ken Worthington from JPMorgan.

Hi, good afternoon. Nice seeing you all. Can you talk about the use of promotions and how that's evolving or expected to evolve in 2026? Is the size of the promotion budget expected to be bigger or smaller this year than last year? As we think about 2026, does asset growth remain your focus or are there other customer behaviors you want to prioritize?

Hi. I can start with this one, Vlad. First, on the promos, we really like the ROI we are seeing, so we will continue to use them. This year more than last year, we are making them more personalized. We can use AI and ML models to make them much more personalized over time, which is great for customers and also generates great ROI. Our top KPIs remain the same. It's market share for active traders, net deposits and gold subscribers for wallet share, and NFAs and institutional accounts for our third arc. We are focusing internally on not just growing net deposits 20% or more year over year, but how to reaccelerate top-of-funnel growth even faster.

The market share growth has exceeded our expectations. Those of you who may be looking at the latest 606 reports probably noticed that it looks like we have become number one in options industry-wide. It’s a good example of how the team's relentlessly making the experience better.

Thank you, Ken. The next question is from Amit at Amit is Investing.

Hey, Vlad and Shiv. Can you hear me?

Yes. How are you doing?

Okay. Congrats on a great quarter. Thanks for taking my question. My question is on banking. How do you see this expanding this year as you begin rolling it out? Where do you think the flywheel takes place as more people bring more of their assets on? I know you guys are giving a very competitive rate on the savings APY. Can you speak a bit more about the business fundamentals and what it can do to further expand and diversify the business as banking rolls out?

Banking has gotten off to a very strong start. You’ve heard us say, over $400 million in assets on the platform. More than half of the people that fund end up funding with their direct deposit. We recently rolled out an increase to the deposit rate to 3.5% APY. Customers appreciate that we give you the APY not just on savings but also on checking, making it easy to optimize the yield without moving money around. This has been a huge pain reliever for customers. The banking product integrates with our other products, which is pretty interesting. Customers have to open a bank account before moving money in and out, so offering that experience in-house makes it seamless for customers, allowing them to have access to the best APY without leaving our platform, which is resonating well. We can keep doubling down on that. The links between the products will be clear. The banking team has aggressive goals; we believe we can grow this offering.

The more net deposits you have with Robinhood Markets, Inc., the more assets, the better your experience. As Vlad mentioned, if you have the $100,000 tier across all your different assets, you get even more value. Customers bring more assets; we continue to give them more value. We are seeing that across all our products, particularly with banking.

Alright. Thank you for your question, Amit. The next question is from Michael Cyprys from Morgan Stanley.

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Could you update us on your partnership on the stablecoin side? How you see that ramping and contributing? What are some of the milestones here in '26? Broadly, on the tokenization of real-world assets, maybe you could speak to some of the steps you are taking, including across private markets. How you see that contributing to the business over the next twelve, twenty-four months versus the outlook for the next five years? What do you see as some of the key hurdles to adoption?

We have confidence that tokenization of private markets is going to be very powerful and highly resonant outside the US. It would clearly work very well inside the US as well, pending the hurdles around accreditation and other crypto market structure. Running our token giveaway with OpenAI and SpaceX in the EU, we saw it resonating with customers. There was a hunger among the retail customer base for exposure in those private companies. A big part of this year is figuring out a path to offering compelling products for private markets in the US with Robinhood Ventures and overseas through tokenization. We need to work with regulators to safely offer these products in a form that resonates with customers. If we can unlock this, we believe it will be a highly differentiated offering.

Alright. Thank you, Mike. For our last question, last but certainly not least, Tanner from Future Investing.

Hey, guys. Thanks for having me. My question was regarding capital allocation strategy for international expansion. Are you guys planning on going after those licenses yourself as you enter new regions and countries, or do you want to acquire to enter and expand into new regions?

I hate not answering Tanner's question, but it's capital allocations; I think you have to take it.

It will be both. There will be some countries where we will do it organically, like in the UK and the EU, and there will be some countries where we will accelerate by going non-organically, for example, Wonderfy, our Canadian acquisition, which hasn't closed yet. For us, we want to serve customers in every single country. We look for speed to market and the best ROI; we are indifferent to the method we get there.

One of the first books Shiv recommended to me was The Outsiders. If anyone is looking for a good book on capital allocation, that was a nice one. We don't want to get into the business of stapling platforms or massive infrastructure integration projects. Those have really grounded big competitors to a halt. Due diligence is key for acquisitions; we need great assets and great teams with complementary technologies we don't already offer. We will continue to make acquisitions, continuing to improve our core platform to be internationally scalable. We will use both paths to serve customers in every jurisdiction.

Alright. That concludes the Q&A portion of our call. Before we end, I'd like to pass it back to Vlad or Shiv for any closing remarks.

I just want to welcome Shiv and again, thank you for all the engagement from the entire community: not just sell-side analysts but also buy-side and our finance content creators. 2025 was a big year. In 2026, we are definitely not getting complacent. There's so much to do. The roadmap is full, and the team is just cranking because we see a unique opportunity to become the primary beneficiary of the $100 trillion plus wealth transfer. So, brick by brick, thank you for being with us on the journey.