ICL Group Ltd. Q1 FY2020 Earnings Call

Thank you. Hello everyone, welcome and thank you for joining us today to our first quarter 2020 conference call. The event is being webcast live on our website at www.icl-group.com. Earlier today, we filed our reports to the Securities authorities and the Stock Exchanges in the U.S. and in Israel. A report is what is the press release are available on our website. There will be a replay of the webcast available a few hours after the meeting, and a transcript will be available shortly after. The presentation that will be reviewed today was also filed to the Securities authorities and is available on our website. Please don’t forget to review the disclaimer on Slide 2. Our comments today may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. We will begin with the presentation by our CEO, Mr. Raviv Zoller, followed by Mr. Kobi Altman, our CFO. Following the presentation, we will open the line for the Q&A session. Raviv, please?

Thank you, Dudi, and hello, everyone. Before discussing ICL's highlights for the first quarter on Slide 3, I would like to take a moment to acknowledge ICL's employees globally for their perseverance in light of the challenging conditions brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, which is reflected all personally and professionally. ICL responded swiftly to make sure measures were in place to ensure the health and safety of our employees, and we are very grateful for the efforts and commitment our team has put forth in order to maintain continuity of our business globally with zero disruptions to our customers. Now turning to the highlights, our results in the first quarter provide a snapshot of some of the factors that helped make ICL so unique. Despite the current Ag inputs market environment, in which potash and phosphate commodity prices fell to what we believe are cyclically low levels, we achieved operating income of $132 million, EBITDA of $250 million, and operating cash flow of $166 million. These results reflect the diversity and resilience of ICL’s business portfolio, as well as the effectiveness of our strategic focus on value-based specialty products. In particular, the strong performance in phosphate specialty stands out, as this helped to mitigate some of the sharp year-over-year decline in commodity phosphate prices. We believe our phosphate specialties business is an important differentiator, contributing to our overall resilience. We also achieved record performance in our industrial products division, driven by strong sales in most products, including record sales of clear brine fluids. The successful Dead Sea facility upgrade in the previous quarter led to record first quarter potash production at the Dead Sea, offsetting the COVID-19 related decline in production in Spain. The COVID-19 pandemic had a limited impact on ICL's results in the first quarter, although our near term could be affected, as I will discuss shortly. While there will be challenges in the short-term, ICL is very well positioned financially with over $1.1 billion of available liquidity and no significant principal payments due on our debt in 2020. Our strong financial position and balanced capital priorities provide us with the flexibility to continue to grow our business as well as to return value to our shareholders. Our dividend for the first quarter amounts to about $30 million in the aggregate, or approximately 50% of net income recorded in the quarter. Slide 4, from the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, ICL worked rapidly to ensure the health and safety of our employees. Our global response was informed by the experience we acquired in our facilities in China in early January. Safety measures were implemented at all company production facilities and offices. And we were able to arrange for the immediate delivery of medical and protective equipment to all ICL sites globally. We have also tried to do our part to assist local communities in which we operate by donating medical and protective equipment, as well as services. We strongly believe in our responsibility to protect those around us and we are fortunate to be able to do so. As mentioned, our operations incurred very limited impact from COVID-19 in the first quarter. ICL operations are essential to critical industries and supply chains. Thus, all our manufacturing facilities have remained fully operational other than brief disruptions to our operations in Spain and the UK. These sites are now operational, although they are both not at full capacity due to social distancing requirements. Although our financial performance was minimally impacted by COVID-19 in the first quarter, we expect to experience more of an impact in the second quarter. While there is inherent uncertainty around the duration of the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, it is expected that a recovery will begin in the third quarter of the year. As a direct response to the pandemic, we drew on our credit facilities and increased our cash balances in order to ensure the company would have significant flexibility to operate in this complex environment. As of March 31, ICL had total liquidity of $1.1 billion, including $524 million in cash and deposits and $590 million in unused credit facility. We are taking the appropriate measures to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on our business by implementing cross-segment efficiency and cost reduction initiatives. COVID-19 has certainly brought about a challenging business environment for most companies globally. ICL is not immune to the impacts of the pandemic. But the strength of our business model and the critical role our products play in the food supply chain will help us weather the storm better than others. Turning to Slide 5, the chart on the slide clearly shows the impact of commodity prices on our results in the first quarter. Almost all of the decline in sales was caused by a $44 per tonne decrease in average potash selling prices and a decline of over 25% in phosphate fertilizer pricing. We’re encouraged by the increase in volume sold, including phosphate fertilizers, clear brine fluids, phosphorus-based flame retardants, and acid. If you look at Slide 6, a similar picture is shown in the EBITDA segment contribution chart. While the strong sales of our industrial products segment positively contributed to EBITDA, the sharp decline in commodity prices accounted for approximately 85% of the decrease in consolidated EBITDA from the first quarter of last year. Let's move on to the business performance of our divisions, starting with industrial products. On Slide 7, the industrial products division achieved record operating income of $103 million in the first quarter, with an operating margin of 28%. These results were driven by strong sales in most products, including record clear brine fluid sales, a 29% increase in sales of phosphorus-based flame retardants, and an increase in the selling prices of specialty minerals to the food and farming markets. Overall, segment sales increased by 4% year-over-year. Notably, our performance was achieved despite a year-over-year decline in bromine prices in China. Bromine prices and sales were unchanged from the prior quarter, but down compared to the first quarter of 2019, when prices were exceptionally high. Nevertheless, the second strategic shift to long-term contracts, the breadth of its product portfolio, and an increase in the selling prices of specialty minerals to the food and farming market led to a $3 million contribution from prices, adding to the $10 million contribution from sales volumes compared to the same quarter last year. Phosphorus-based flame retardant sales increased from the first quarter of 2019, mainly due to a decrease in supply from China following the shutdown of chemical plants due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We continue to build on our strong market position and long-term customer relationships and sign additional new long-term contracts with customers in Asia, adding to the large-scale multi-year contracts signed last year. Due to the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, industrial product sales are expected to decrease in the second quarter of 2020. This is primarily due to a decrease in demand for clear brine fluids used in the oil and gas industry, as well as decreased demand for flame retardants by the automotive and construction industries. Turning to Slide 8, we achieved record quarterly potash production at the Dead Sea after the three-week production shutdown in our facilities for capacity upgrade in the fourth quarter of 2019. Polysulphate production also increased by 34% year-over-year to 177,000 tonnes as capacity for ICL will be increased. Strong production, of course, could not offset the impact of a very weak commodity price environment and a division in sales and operating income declined by 18% and 82%, respectively, compared to the first quarter of last year. Potash spot prices continued to decrease during the first quarter of 2020 across global markets, due to high availability and due to the delay in signing of new contracts in China and India. The recent signing of our 2020 potash supply contracts in China testifies to our leading position as one of the world's largest consumers of potash and our strong long-lasting relationships with our Chinese customers. However, the current contract price led to a $12 million price adjustment on open contracts and consequently decreased first-quarter operating income. Potash sales quantities were just slightly lower than last year due to a decrease in potash sales to China and the U.S., but a 15% year-over-year decline in average realized potash prices was the primary driver of the division's year-over-year decline in performance. While the division's results were not materially impacted by COVID-19, production in Spain was halted for three weeks out of concern for the health and well-being of our employees. Production has since resumed, but the facilities in Spain are currently operating at reduced capacity of about 60%. Logistical and operational restrictions were also implemented at ICL's site in the UK, starting in the last week of March, and production is currently at 70% capacity. We estimate that the impact of COVID-19 on the division’s operating income will be between $10 million to $20 million in the second quarter. I should also note that ICL’s new port facility in Barcelona started operations during the quarter and the first vessel was loaded in February 2020. Turning to our phosphate solutions division on Slide 9, the division once again demonstrated the strength of a diverse portfolio focused on a growing specialty business. The decline of over 25% in phosphate commodity prices was partially offset by strong phosphate specialties performance and continuous positive performance of our YPH JV. Despite market headwinds and challenges in China during the quarter related to COVID-19, our new white phosphoric acid food-grade plant, which is ramping up and is scheduled to begin producing commercial food-grade acid in the second half of 2020, is expected to add about 70,000 tonnes of production capacity once it is fully ramped. We are pleased that the segment generated a positive operating profit of $9 million despite phosphate commodity prices reaching 12-year lows. The robust and diversified customer portfolio and wide geographic reach of ICL phosphate specialties business helps to prevent the material impact from COVID-19 on the business performance in the first quarter of 2020. Revenues from phosphate salts increased moderately year-over-year, driven by higher prices of food-grade phosphates and strong global demand for food and other phosphate specialties. We do not expect a significant impact from COVID-19 in the second quarter on the phosphate solutions division. All production sites globally are fully operational and demand is healthy across multiple geographies. At this time, we are also increasing our efforts to accelerate discussions with the State of Israel regarding decision-making on future phosphate rock sources to secure long-term certainty for growth. Finally, as part of our strategy to divest low-synergy and non-core businesses, in April 2020, we entered into an agreement to sell 100% of the shares of Hagesud. Hagesud is an entity with non-core business activities as well as real estate. As of March 31, 2020, the net book value of Hagesud is about $36 million. The closing date of the transaction is expected to occur during the second quarter of 2020, and we expect no material impact on financial results from this transaction. Slide 10, the innovation Ag solution segment sales decreased by 3% year-over-year driven by lower sales volumes due to unfavorable weather conditions, decreases in demand in turf and ornamental markets due to COVID-19, and unfavorable dollar/euro exchange rate. However, operating income increased by 8% to $14 million year-over-year due to the lower cost of raw materials as well as internal cost efficiency initiatives. The strict execution of our value-based strategy was also reflected in the continuous reduction in sales of lower-margin third-party products. The impact of COVID-19 on sales for the turf and ornamental market will likely continue as sports grounds and garden centers remain closed. On the other hand, our opportunity pipeline in emerging markets remains robust, reflected in continuous growth in sales. In February, we announced the acquisition of Growers Holdings, a U.S.-based Precision Agriculture Company that is an innovator in the field of process and data-driven farming. We're delighted and excited about this acquisition, which will enhance ICL’s digital capabilities and accelerate our global development roadmap. Slide 11, overall we're very fortunate to have suffered minimal operational impact as a result of COVID-19. These are unprecedented and challenging times and the pandemic has very rapidly affected the global economy. ICL's sales business will be affected as well, but we expect it to be resilient due to its diversification and underlying strength. Over the near term, we expect commodity prices to lag but not much further. Potash prices, in particular, should find support following the signing of supply contracts in China and India. The agriculture season is also underway, and we're seeing strong demand for our commodity and specialty fertilizers. These are, of course, businesses that are less sensitive to global economic disruptions. We expect our industrial products division, on the other hand, to see some weakness over the next several months due to a near-term decline in demand for clear brine fluids and flame retardants. The outlook for our specialty phosphate business remains strong, and our strategic focus on value-added specialty businesses will provide some stability in a weaker commodity environment. Finally, while our business is diversified and not excessively dependent on commodity prices, we manage our balance sheet as if our business had a higher level of commodity price exposure than it actually does. This affords us a significant degree of flexibility to execute on our strategic initiatives in order to manage the growth of our business safely and consistently in the long term. Before I hand it over to Kobi, I would once again like to extend my appreciation to the great efforts put together by our 11,000 employees all over the world during these challenging and unprecedented times. I'm confident that with their professionalism and dedication, ICL will remain well positioned to overcome any and all challenges in our business environment and resume its growth path. Thank you all. And with that, I will hand it over to Kobi.

Thank you, Raviv and good day everyone. As Raviv already mentioned, we entered the abnormal economic environment in solid financial strength that enables us the flexibility at times like this, and the ability to capture opportunities. The summary of our financial results shown in the table of Slide 13 reflects the year-over-year decline in the financial metrics due to the negative impact of commodity prices. The sequential performance is compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 has improved. Improvements came despite the continued decline in potash and phosphate commodity prices. As Raviv mentioned earlier, the difference in our results compared to the first quarter of 2019 stems from the sharp decline in commodity prices. Our results for the first quarter of this year clearly demonstrate the underlying value of our specialty businesses and the effectiveness of our value-based approach. Looking forward, after the recent signing of potash supply contracts with China, we believe that both potash and phosphate commodity prices have fallen to cyclically low levels. As we can see on Slide 14, commodity prices have recently reached very low levels, while our business is significantly less commodity price exposure than a pure play producer. We still manage for commodity cycles and maintain a conservative financial profile as a result of this exposure. Raviv mentioned earlier that the new supply contract signed in China and the expected contracts to be signed in India should help to reverse the downturn trend in potash prices, as we saw in mid-2016. Slide 15, will only be found in the appendix, but we brought it forward this quarter, given the impact to the quarter. Net financing expenses in the first quarter amounted to $52 million, compared to $75 million in the same period last year, an increase of $70 million. The increase relates mainly to a change in the fair value of hedging transactions for $46 million. The fair value of hedging transactions was affected by sharp decreases in energy and dry bulk shipping prices, a decrease in the U.S. dollar interest rate curve, and exchange rate fluctuation. The reversal of such impact is expected in future periods, but will not necessarily be in this line item. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations led to a decrease of $25 million in expenses related to long-term employee benefits provisions and long-term lease evaluations according to IFRS 16 mainly due to the Israeli shekel depreciation against the dollar. In addition, interest expenses decreased by $5 million due to a low average debt balance and average interest rate. Please turn to Slide 16 for a brief overview of our liquidity position. ICL maintains a healthy balance sheet backed by liquidity of $1.1 billion as of the end of the quarter. This includes cash and deposits of over $500 million and available credit facilities of $590 million. As we mentioned in our March 25 press release, we decided to increase our cash balances as a prudent action in response to a highly volatile and uncertain situation. We do not have any major principal repayments of loans until 2024. The oversubscribed 15 years bond offering of about $110 million on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange we completed in December enabled us to more evenly spread our long-term debt and increase our financial flexibility even further. To conclude in Slide 17, we are generally pleased with our solid performance for the first quarter, especially in light of the weak commodity price environment that highlights the differentiation in ICL business and how we have been able to build our specialty products over time. Absent the impact of COVID-19, we would be expecting increasingly strong results in the near term as commodity prices are expected to start a recovery from cyclical lows. The pandemic has pushed our expectations out in time, but we maintain our positive long-term outlook for our end markets, as well as for our business. In the meantime, we will continue to execute our strategy of growing our value-based specialties. Our strong balance sheet and healthy liquidity profile will provide us with ample flexibility to do so and the ability to capture business opportunities in a volatile and changing economic environment. With that, I would like to thank you for listening to our call and open up the line for any questions you may have.

Our first question today comes from Joel Jackson of BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Good morning Raviv and Kobi. Maybe I'll ask a few questions one by one. Just higher level, the last couple of years we've seen a really strong bromine and IP business, it's maybe offset some challenges in the other commodity other businesses. With the oil price environment and the lower economic activity environment, you know bromine is going to take a step down here. And hopefully, we'll see some potash and phosphate price recovery, hopefully, I'm not sure. My question is, if bromines are doing the heavy lifting, and now that's coming down, and the other businesses might not come back to offset that, how does that strain change your strategy, what you want to acquire, what you want to do in your cap allocation? Thanks.

Actually, for the past couple of years, every quarter we look at sales of clear brine fluids, and we always tell ourselves, when is this going to end, when is this going to go lower? And actually a year ago in the first quarter of last year, we had a record quarter again, when all the stars were in the right place. We thought, hey, probably it's going to take a really long time until we see that happen again. And here we are in the first quarter of 2020, and we have another record, including clear brine fluids. The bromine business as a whole is very solid. We have the most significant market share. Our strategy has been to protect the future growth of that business by signing long-term contracts, which we started to achieve last year. You can see that that strategy is already paying off as the first quarter of this year was not necessarily a growth quarter for the bromine market. You can see that some of our competitors actually went down in the market. We believe that we've secured a huge part of the business, and the prospects going forward look very positive. On clear brine fluids, clearly there will be an influence of oil prices. But at the same time, most of our product goes to deepwater drilling, which is usually state-regulated. They’re not short-term; they don’t stop drilling from one day to the next. They require government permits. So typically, it’s a cycle of almost a year until there’s an actual real change in the deepwater drilling. At the same time, once prices go down significantly, there’s an immediate response. That means that inventories at our customers are going down significantly. This won't necessarily be a critical change in that piece of the market, but it could be a short-term effect if oil prices rebound. Typically, shale drilling and drilling in Texas go down immediately once oil prices go down, but not necessarily the deepwater well drilling. We still believe that short-term and long-term, the business is going to be strong. We have a growth strategy built on new products and new offerings coming in, as well as long-term contracts that secure demand. As we speak, we’re growing capacity, but we’re not growing capacity in hope of future demand. We’re growing capacity with actual orders for future demands. I'm trying to reflect to you that we feel rather confident even though we think we will see some contraction during the next few months. So that's bromine. In phosphate, we're building a very strong specialty products business. That business is adding products, such as alternative protein products that we added in recent months. We just launched a very unique product on the industrial side called Scratch-X, a coating that doesn't show any scratching. It’s a product that should be very significant for future sales. Our innovation is allowing us to release new products into the market, and we see very good future and growth prospects in that part of the business. I do think that we're more exposed on the commodity phosphate side, but we don't control the market. The market is driven very much by Morocco and China. It depends on what kind of discipline they show to the market on the commodity side. But the fact that our specialty business is growing in resilience and profitability, along with the growth from Q1 last year, was about $1.5 million of additional operating income, representing over $28 million in specialty products. This indicates we have a good foundation there. In the potash side, while the prices have reached a low that we didn’t expect, momentum is changing. Remember that we have three businesses improving as we speak. One is in Spain, which has taken quite a long time. We expect positive results from that by the end of this year. We're also growing our polysulphate business out of the UK, which is also growing into profitability. Finally, after winning a regulatory claim in the U.S., our magnesium business now has a stronger foundation for sales in the U.S. So we have three businesses, which in the past were losing businesses, but we've turned them around, similar to the joint venture in China on the phosphate side, and the specialty phosphate business has helped our phosphate division remain resilient. The work we've done in Spain, the UK, and the magnesium area gives us additional upside in potash momentum. Overall, we can expect growing positive results from the potash division, we expect that bromine will continue to grow over the long run even if we may face some short-term weakness, which we’re uncertain about. However, we can definitely see weaknesses in the future months. But we have a strong phosphate business based on our specialty products offerings. Finally, we have a specialty fertilizer business, which we're turning into a unique and technologically based business. We're building commercial excellence, eliminating some lower-margin third-party products from our portfolio, which enhances profitability. We hope to complete some M&A that escaped us due to valuation considerations in the past, and now in this new era of COVID-19, we have substantial liquidity, indicating we have opportunities there. I see potential improvements in each of our four divisions forecast due to the improvements within the potash division, continuing growth from the specialty phosphate businesses, bromine's security through long-term contracts and innovative products, and enhancements in specialty fertilizers through M&A and technology. We strive to be a leader in all we do. We are leaders in bromine, in specialty phosphates, and we will continue to improve our technology-based offerings.

Okay that's helpful. I have been following potash closely, so last year you mentioned some downtime in the fourth quarter at Dead Sea works for some improvements turnaround work. This year is interesting; you have some potash because demand growth that can be up hopefully, but you have a lot of new capacity from other players and inventory from other players? A lot of companies like yourself that have lower production last year are seeking volume gains this year, and everybody can't get what they want? Do you expect that your potash volume to be down this year when you consider all that, or will you grow?

No, absolutely not, we're going to grow significantly. We're not losing the product that we had to lose last year for a one-time capacity increase; we’re producing more this year. We will be at or above 400,000 tonnes of additional production this year compared to last year based on our capacity upgrade last year. If everything works out well, it will be more than 0.5 million. So we're going to be up this year; remember we are price takers in this market. We will sell all our products, there’s no question we will sell the product. We're going to sell the product where the price makes sense. We are not selling any product in Brazil at this point. Obviously, we will maintain our relationships with Chinese and Indian customers, which are our foundation. The rest of the product will go to those markets that pay a premium. At this point, the highest premium is in Europe.

Just finally, doesn’t that concern you that a lot of your peers in potash because you do, as you have your volume objectives this year, you're going to sell it where it makes sense. Is that not concerning you that the price can’t recover? How do you reconcile price recovery if you're all wanting to have big volume growth?

It's very simple. The market is basically an oversupplied market, which means that there is more capacity than there is demand on the base. If there’s excess demand, it’s $7 million or $8 million or $9 million, it doesn't matter that much. The reason is that excess capacity is controlled by two or three players. The level of discipline they exercise will determine what the price levels will be. Last year they planned a certain strategy, but unfortunately, that didn’t meet reality, as actual demand was much lower due to conditions in the U.S. and in India because of swine flu. What happened is that they were going to supply in a way that would be more supportive of the market. But there wasn’t enough buying in the U.S. or in China, resulting in dynamics that they can’t control. Even negotiations with China were troubled, with a lot of product waiting in bonded warehouses in China. I believe that, in the future, it won't happen the same way. But as soon as there are markets that can absorb the product, players that have excess capacities and can exercise discipline have opportunities to do their job. The smaller players in the market, such as us, who consider ourselves a smaller player being currently the number six producer in the world, will place their products accordingly. We don’t look at total demand and total supply because we don’t have the means to control that. In the bromine market, we’re the largest player, so the situation is different. You should ask our nutrient experts, and they would provide you with much better insights into what is going to happen.

Thank you very much. The next question today comes from the line of Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

This is Jeremy Rosenberg on for Vincent. I want to start out on industrial products. I saw in the press release and I heard your comments about the lower clear brine fluid sales expected as well as the flame retardant sales. I'm just wondering if that’s mainly concentrated in the second quarter, or do you expect to see those impacts in the back half of the year as well? And maybe just a little more color on the magnitude of the declines you expect?

The honest truth is that we don't know, because we know that the car industry has shut down for a while; it has come back in China. It's coming back in Europe now, but it's still not really coming back in the U.S. So the car industry shutdown has obviously affected electronic distribution. Looking at the final market demand, we understand it’s going to translate down the supply chain. We anticipate lower levels of demand in certain types of products. We're currently estimating that most of the effect will be felt over the next few months as we see electronics and car production return. Construction is coming back as well. Oil is a bit of a mystery, as we don’t really understand the market dynamics and how long $40 oil prices will stay. If oil goes back to $40 or $45 within the next month or two, then we don’t really expect too much of an effect. However, if oil prices stay below $40 for more than five or six months, then it could be longer. I’m hesitant to provide an estimate. We want to give as much transparency as possible, so we previously estimated an impact of $10 million to $20 million on our potash division from lower capacity in Spain and the UK, etc. We would love to provide a good estimate, but we currently feel our competitors' estimate of a 20% lower impact in the second quarter is as good as anything we can give at this point. We don't see or forecast a significant effect beyond the second quarter, but it's too early to feel confident about any kind of forecast.

Okay, got it. That’s helpful. Maybe I'll just ask one more question on the potash side of things. Looking at the China contract, I know there has been a lot of discussion about the price side. But I wanted to focus on volumes. If I looked at the contract volumes this year versus the last contract, it seems like the amount of tonnage is pretty similar. I’m just wondering if there’s any concern that we’re going to get into a similar situation where they’re basically going to have stockpiles if they don’t need all the potash they’ve contracted for. Thank you.

I don't really see that. The quantities are actually until the end of the year, not until next April; it's until December. That's a considerable amount until December, and fulfilling those quantities will pose a significant challenge for us. As of now, we haven’t supplied any product to China in the first quarter. We provided 29,000 tonnes as an emergency product, but that's negligible. So all this needs to be supplied in nine months; if you average it per quarter, it’s about 300,000 tonnes per quarter. Regarding the options right now, it doesn’t look like we’re going to want to use those options, nor do our customers. But they give us the flexibility to help each other out if necessary. So my best estimate is that we will be shipping a little less than 910,000 tonnes, just because the placement of our product to other regions puts us at the limit. It’s also about half of our non-granulated productions, which is quite a lot. So I would say our best estimate is that we will get close to 910,000 tonnes, maybe a little less.

Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. I have three questions, please. The first one will be a follow-up on the question just now on the contract with China. How should we think about the quarterly shipments here for the 900,000 or 910,000 tonnes? Since you mentioned it will already be a challenge to fulfill this, how should we think about the optionality you mentioned in the release?

Right now, what I can say is that we haven't supplied any product to China in the first quarter. We actually provided what I think was 29,000 tonnes just as an emergency product, but that’s negligible, so it's close to zero in the first quarter. All this needs to be supplied in nine months; if you take an average per quarter, it’s about 300,000 tonnes. In terms of the options currently, it doesn't look like we're going to want to use those options, nor do our customers, but they give us flexibility to help each other out if necessary. My best guesstimate is that we will be shipping a little less than 910,000 tonnes, just because the placement of our product to other regions puts us at the limit, and it’s about half of our non-granulated productions. Thank you.

Thank you very much. That does conclude the conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.