Lincoln Educational Services Corp Q2 FY2024 Earnings Call

Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone. Before the market opened today, Lincoln Educational Services issued its news release reporting financial results in recent corporate developments for the second quarter in six months ended June 30, 2024. The release is available on the Investor Relations portion of the company’s corporate website at www.lincolntech.edu. Joining us today on the call is Scott Shaw, President and CEO; and Brian Meyers, Chief Financial Officer. Today’s call is being recorded and is being broadcast live on the company’s website. A replay of the call will be archived on the company’s website. Statements made by Lincoln’s management on today’s call regarding the company’s business that are not historical facts may be forward-looking statements as the term is identified in federal securities laws. The words may, will, expect, believe, anticipate, project, plan, intend, estimate and continue, as well as similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance. The company cautions you that these statements reflect certain expectations about the company’s future performance or event and are subject to a number of uncertainties, risks, and other influences, many of which are beyond the company’s control and may influence the accuracy of the statement and projection upon which the segmented statements are based. Factors that may affect the company’s results include, but are not limited to, the risks and uncertainties discussed in the Risk Factor section of the annual report in Form 10-K and the quarterly report in Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Forward-looking statements are based on the information available at the time those statements are made and management’s good faith belief as of the time with respect to future events. All forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement and Lincoln undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise after the date they’re out. One other housekeeping matter, during the Q&A portion of our call today, we would appreciate if questioners limited themselves to two questions and then requeue to ask any additional questions. In advance, we thank you for your cooperation. Now, I would like to call over Scott Shaw, President and CEO of Lincoln Educational Services. Scott, please go ahead.

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. For several quarters, our team has been demonstrating strong operational and financial momentum, leading to consistent growth in revenue, student starts, and profitability. We have continued these trends in our second quarter and are on track to meet our 2024 guidance metrics. In fact, we are positively adjusting our guidance, which Brian will detail in his remarks. The investments we’ve made in our transformative strategies over the past few years are driving our growth. Additionally, we are capitalizing on the increasing interest in career opportunities that bypass the costs and time of a four-year college degree, while helping to close the skills gap that inhibits corporate growth. During the second quarter, we grew revenue by 16% year-over-year without relying on acquisitions, and student starts increased by 12.3%. Our strong student retention rate resulted in an average student population increase of over 11% compared to last year. Our top-line performance, combined with increased operating efficiencies from implementing our scalable hybrid instructional platform, Lincoln 10.0, led to adjusted EBITDA of $6 million. I’ll let Brian discuss our adjusted EBITDA performance, but I want to highlight that our second-quarter result was about 2.5 times higher than last year’s second quarter. Additionally, total SG&A expenses in the second quarter were reduced to below 56% compared to 57.6%, and educational services and facilities expenses as a percentage of revenue also declined, further showcasing the operating leverage we are starting to realize. By the end of this year, after completing the rollout of Lincoln 10.0, the platform will be utilized to teach approximately 65% of our students. We are seeing many indications that this platform enhances our operational efficiencies and significantly influences students’ decisions to enroll at Lincoln. It shortens the time needed to complete programs, allowing graduates to start their careers sooner. This increased training productivity is appealing to our corporate partners, who are facing challenges due to the shortage of skilled employees. While I have mentioned before how Lincoln 10.0 has fundamentally transformed our teaching methods and positioned the company for the future, it’s worth repeating that its impact is significant. The platform supports our focused growth strategies of opening new campuses and replicating successful programs at existing locations. For instance, the East Point, Georgia campus is our first new greenfield campus developed in 18 years. This state-of-the-art facility boasts 56,000 square feet of training space, including 15 automotive service spaces and up to 60 welding booths, labs, and classrooms. We welcomed our first class in the first quarter, and by the end of June, we had enrolled more students at East Point than we initially projected for the entire year. The campus’s strong performance validates our site selection process and anticipates positive outcomes for future campuses and relocations. East Point was designed to stand out among trade schools, and visitors can see this as soon as they arrive. We aimed to create a sleek and modern environment that enhances both the student and teaching experience. Every aspect of the campus has been thoughtfully crafted to provide exceptional hands-on education and training, utilizing top-tier labs and curriculum. For instance, in our automotive program, we are the only school group in the U.S. using the Electude curriculum and their integrated trainers. Electude leads in automotive training in high schools and colleges. Their cloud-based e-learning platform provides our instructors with engaging lessons, assessments, teaching resources, and tools for building curriculum, as well as analytical resources for identifying learning needs. Moreover, their proprietary trainers seamlessly integrate with the curriculum, helping students grasp the major systems in a car. The program emphasizes discovery learning, which aligns with how younger generations excel at mastering modern technology. Based on the enthusiastic response we’ve received through leads, applications, and student starts, we are off to a terrific start at East Point, and early results have bolstered our confidence in our campus strategy. Our upcoming Nashville and Levittown campuses are slated to open in the first half of 2025. Both campuses are entirely new and will replace existing operations in those markets, adding additional programs. The construction of our fourth new campus in Houston is on schedule, but local regulatory timelines will delay its opening until the fourth quarter of 2025. We are also in the preliminary stages of developing a fifth new campus, which we plan to announce by our third quarter results conference call, with an opening expected in 2026. Besides new campuses, replicating and the expansion of successful programs at our existing locations is a critical growth strategy, and Brian will provide more details on our initiatives. We anticipate that each of these programs will generate $1 million in profitability within three years of opening, if not sooner. Our emphasis on providing innovative, efficient student curriculums is facilitating more graduates entering fulfilling careers. This focus also attracts new corporate partners and strengthens our current relationships. Our corporate partnership development activities remained strong in the second quarter, and we expanded our relationship with Peterbilt Corporation to our Denver campus after successfully launching that partnership at our Nashville campus a year prior. During our last call, we discussed the five-year workforce development agreement signed with Container Maintenance Corporation. This June, we began curriculum development at CMC’s Charleston, South Carolina facility. Over five years, this agreement is expected to generate about $6 million in revenue for Lincoln. While we have successfully executed workforce development programs in the past, the CMC agreement marks a new scale and level for Lincoln, as we are upskilling CMC employees directly at their facilities rather than bringing them to our campuses. This emerging opportunity could become a significant contributor to our business, and we expect to announce additional contracts before year-end. At the same time, we have immense prospects through our campus-focused growth strategies. By the end of 2026, we plan to establish three greenfield campuses while relocating and expanding existing ones, and have 10 program replications fully operational. Every new campus and program replication increases our chances for higher student starts. Additionally, we are committed to maintaining strong organic growth for our existing programs. Our marketing initiatives continue to yield high returns on investment, and our lead generation remains robust, growing at a strong double-digit rate. Our expanded outreach in Connecticut and Maryland, where we collaborate with employers, government entities, unions, and community colleges to raise awareness of the available opportunities in skilled trades careers, has been a significant success. In Maryland, we were engaged to coordinate a similar program next year with increased state funding. As you can see, we are experiencing robust growth in revenue and profitability, and remain on track to achieve our long-term goals of $550 million in revenue and $90 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2027. Our opportunities have never been better. From 1980 to 2020, the societal push was towards four-year college education, regardless of cost or outcomes. This led to the undervaluation of career education, despite the growing necessity for highly trained middle-skilled workers. The skills gap became increasingly evident in the early 21st century as employers struggled to find technicians, electricians, welders, and healthcare professionals. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgency of the shortage of middle-skilled workers, with many students finding employment as demand for essential services surged. Our company, Lincoln Tech, trains the essential workers that enable us to maintain our lifestyles. We recognize and expect the need for our services to grow, regardless of the economic conditions. There are undeniable changes occurring that are fuelling the demand for our graduates. For instance, as the population ages, the requirement for healthcare services and professionals will continue to rise. Society’s thirst for internet connectivity, AI, and communication will persist, driving the need for electricians, HVAC technicians, and others to sustain infrastructure and develop cleaner energy solutions. On this note, I want to emphasize our partnership with Fujitsu, a leader in HVAC systems, particularly split-unit systems that use inverter technology. These innovative systems are efficient and applicable in colder regions, providing a cost-effective solution for heating and cooling. Across the country, we are witnessing proposals to discourage the use of greenhouse gas-emitting systems in favor of mini-split units. Our relationship with Fujitsu ensures that our students acquire relevant and future-ready skills. Another cornerstone of our success is our skilled Board of Directors. We have consistently attracted excellent Board members, most recently welcoming marketing executive Marta Newhart and former U.S. Treasurer Anna Cabral. Marta’s expertise in marketing will help diversify our Board’s perspective and enhance the pursuit of our long-term goals. Anna’s distinguished background in public service will greatly benefit our diverse student community, especially as we navigate the regulatory landscape. In summary, we are progressing toward meeting our full-year guidance and are positioned for growth in 2025 and beyond. We are transforming into a premier educational service provider that fulfills the needs of America's corporations and workforce. Lastly, I’d like to mention that I will be in Chicago on August 28th for the Annual Midwest Ideas Conference, and will participate in Barrington’s Virtual Fall Investment Conference on September 12th to educate investors about the enhanced valuation potential of our shares. I’ll now turn the call over to Brian Meyers for a review of our recent financial highlights and guidance.

Thank you, Scott. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2024 earnings call. This morning I’m pleased to share our financial results along with some key operational highlights. Starting with the quarter’s financial performance, total revenue was nearly $103 million, representing an increase of about $14 million or 16%, mainly driven by our robust start growth over the last seven consecutive quarters. During the second quarter, student starts grew by 12.3%. This marks the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in both revenue and starts. As a result, we had approximately 1,500 more students as of June 30, 2024, compared to the prior year, propelling revenue growth for the second half and beyond. As Scott mentioned, the new East Point campus is performing exceptionally well, exceeding enrollment goals and contributing to the company’s top line. While the East Point campus contributed to our robust start growth, we also continue to achieve solid organic start growth from existing campuses. Excluding the new East Point campus, we grew our organic campus revenue by $13 million, with the incremental revenue contributing an operating margin of over 30%. Now turning to the expenses for the quarter, which, as a reminder for comparability purposes, exclude one-time expenses of our new East Point campus during its opening period, pre-opening costs associated with new and relocating campuses, other non-recurring expenses, and the transitional segment in 2023. Further details on these items are available in the non-GAAP disclosures of our Q2 earnings release. Total operating expenses were close to $99 million, which is reflective of our growing population and in line with expectations. Education, service, and facility expenses as a percentage of revenue are down to 42% from 44.4% in the prior year. The majority of the decrease relates to instructional expenses, which increased over prior year due to costs associated with our larger student base but decreased as a percentage of revenue as we begin to experience efficiencies and benefits from our higher population and our hardware and learning model. Adjusted EBITDA was $6.2 million for the second quarter, compared to $2.4 million in the prior year, representing more than a 150% increase. We had an income tax benefit for the quarter of approximately $500,000, including a discrete item benefit associated with stock vesting. For the second half of the year, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 30%. Turning to the balance sheet, our balance sheet remains robust with total liquidity exceeding $100 million, cash and cash equivalents of $67 million, no debt, and working capital of around $50 million. Our CapEx for the three months was approximately $10 million, relating to multiple exciting projects which will drive growth next year and beyond. First, we continue to manage the build-out of 10 additional programs, which are either program replications at an additional campus or an expansion of an existing campus. Based on the construction patient approvals, we expect six programs to be rolled out by year-end and the remaining to be launched in the first half of 2025. Second, we are working towards the opening of three new state-of-the-art facilities in 2025, comprised of two campus relocations and one brand new location. We are seeing some delays in the timing of our capital spending, which will shift about $20 million to 2025, leading us to reduce our CapEx guidance for the year. However, we are slightly ahead of schedule in two of the three projects. Starting with the Nashville and Levittown relocations, both projects continue to make great progress and now are expected to be completed in the first half of 2025. The new Houston campus build-out has experienced some delays, driving the majority of the capex shift into 2025. As a result, we now anticipate the campus to open towards the end of 2025. Looking ahead to the remainder of 2024, based on these project statuses, we are reducing our full-year CapEx guidance to $45 million to $55 million. Our second quarter operating financial results, as well as the remainder of the year, lead us to raise our outlook for revenue and increase the low-end range of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, and student starts. The outlook for guidance has been updated to revenue ranging between $423 million to $430 million, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $39 million to $42 million, adjusted net income ranging between $14 million and $17 million, and student starts growth of 9% to 12%. As a reminder, our full-year financial guidance for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income excludes the impact of East Point campus pre-opening costs related to new and relocated campuses, program expansions and non-cash stock-based compensation. Also, in terms of depreciation and amortization, we expect a slight increase in the second half of the year, resulting in approximately $7.5 million of expense recorded fairly even over each quarter. Lastly, interest expense is anticipated to be near $500,000 in the second half, evenly dividing Q3 and Q4. In conclusion, we are very pleased with our performance in 2024. We have solid growth plans in work and continue to explore new opportunities to expand and drive efficiencies. As we highlighted in our Q2 investor presentation under the strategic growth slide that we posted to our website later today, our long-term vision and goal is to generate revenue of approximately $550 million and adjusted EBITDA of about $90 million in 2027. Our team is working diligently together, and we believe we are well-positioned to achieve this target. We sincerely appreciate the entire Lincoln team, especially our faculty, for making a difference each day in changing our students’ lives. Now I’ll turn the call back over to the Operator for any questions.

Thank you. Our first question comes from Alex Paris with Barrington Research. Your line is now open.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I want to congratulate you on the beat and raise.

Thanks, Alex. Appreciate that. We’re excited about it as well.

A couple of quick questions. Both you, Scott and Brian, said at the end of the call that your targets for 2027 are $550 million and $90 million for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Is that around anything or are you increasing it? Because I think you said it at investor day, $540 million and $88 million?

Right. It was actually increased slightly because the start of that strategic growth plan starts with the mid-range of our guidance. So, as we increase that, it increases the 2027 as well.

Yeah. So, we did make an adjustment up since the investor meeting.

Is this the first time you’ve said it or did you say it previously? I don’t recall.

No. I think this is the first time and it will be out on our website later today.

Great. Well, congratulations on that. Here are my two questions. First of all, I wanted to focus on starts. Starts were up more than we had expected. We expected 4,600 starts. You came in closer to 5,000 starts at 12%. What do you attribute that to? I’m assuming the increase in marketing. And then, has that momentum continued into the third quarter? What’s your experience in July and August?

Sure. Well, definitely, we achieved greater success than we were thinking. However, to support that, we are seeing continued success moving forward. There definitely is increased demand at a double-digit level for our programs across the board. And it really comes down to a lot of execution to achieve those, as well as just timing of when some of the starts take place within the quarter. But the basic trend or the basic fact is we see strong demand continuing. That’s why we raised the midpoint of our guidance to 10%, 11%, I guess, closer to 11%, and that’s where we anticipate we’ll come out for the year.

Above and beyond the renaissance in skilled trades, the appeal of these blue-collar jobs that can’t be outsourced or replaced by AI, you’ve increased marketing year-over-year. I think you said in the press release it was up $2 million year-over-year.

Yes.

Yeah. There is enhanced demand. I'm sorry, Alex, you didn’t finish.

I was just going to say, and has that had any impact on the cost per lead or cost per start?

The good news is that we closely monitor the cost per start, which has remained relatively stable. It may have increased by a percentage or two, but it’s not significant and it can vary each quarter. This variability is mainly due to the timing of our expenditures and when students enroll. Ultimately, we are seeing increased demand, but some believe that interest naturally arises through word of mouth. We still need to actively market ourselves. As long as we keep our cost per start consistent, as we have over the past five years, we will continue to invest and promote greater growth.

It makes sense. Here’s my last question. I know we're limited to two. The overall increase in program starts, which rose by 12%, was primarily driven by the transportation and skilled trades sector, which grew by 21%. Meanwhile, healthcare and other professions experienced a 6% decline this quarter. What do you think is causing that?

A lot of it, again, is timing of when starts occur. In certain times, we can have two nursing starts in the quarter, sometimes only one. So in a couple of the campuses, they’re switching of when those starts were taking place year over year. At the end of the day, I’m still expecting growth in the healthcare sector for the full year. I’m not worried about growing that area.

Our biggest decline was in LPN, and it was due to the timing of the starts.

Gotcha. Do you still, though, think that auto and skilled trades will increase at a greater rate than healthcare and other professions for the full year?

Yes. Simply because that’s where we’re replicating our programs as of now. We have future opportunities... We believe, to replicate the healthcare programs. But right now, we’re focused on the skilled trades and auto programs. So the answer is definitely yes.

Makes sense, guys. Thank you very much.

Thanks, Alex.

Thanks, Alex.

And the next question comes from Steven Frankel with Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is now open.

Good morning. Alex stole my thunder, but maybe we’ll dig into healthcare a little bit more. What’s the size of the funnel there relative to the prospect funnel on the skilled trade side? Is there still a very good funnel there, or are you finding that people are less interested in this area post-COVID? I know there are plenty of job openings, but what’s the interest level like?

Yeah. Interest still remains strong in healthcare. It’s definitely growing. It’s up over last year. As I said, I’m very comfortable that our full year healthcare numbers will be meaningfully up. Again, our skilled trades and auto are going to be up more because that is where we’re having more replications and expansions take place. But overall, demand is strong across the board. I’m not worried, frankly, about any demand indicators shifting negatively, or maybe they’ll shift more positively, but they’re definitely robust, I’d say, Steven, across the board for us.

I appreciate the update on the cash pay programs in skilled trades and auto. Are there any prospects for replicating that kind of success on the healthcare side?

Absolutely. And the healthcare side of the house is an area that we’re putting increased focus on. We recently hired a new individual, a VP of Healthcare, frankly, to help us drive that business going forward. So I would anticipate certainly as we get into 2025, sharing more of what those new opportunities will be for us.

Great. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Eric Martinuzzi with Lake Street Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Eric, your line is now open. The next question comes from Raj Sharma with B. Riley. Your line is now open.

Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to understand the starts color a little bit better. So, if I heard it correctly, the healthcare starts were down 6%, and that’s largely explainable from timing. Is that right?

Yeah.

My follow-up question is regarding the East Point, Georgia campus. What was the starts growth rate there, and was Atlanta primarily focused on transportation?

Atlanta is primarily focused on transportation skilled trades, including automotive, electrical, HVAC, and welding. The growth in this sector was about 5.5%. There is a slide available on our investor website that provides more details. Overall, we experienced solid performance.

Yeah.

...growth without that new campus.

What enrollment are you expecting at the East Point campus?

Well, I’ll just tell you what, we modeled the campus at getting to enrollment around 700, 750 students. At the end of this year, we originally thought there might be 300 students, and we’re exceeding that.

Right. And that makes sense. And the healthcare starts you expect for the year to be positive growth, any sort of target on that?

I can’t, to be honest with you, I haven’t looked at it in that way. All I know is that there is positive growth. I know, Brian, if you have any more information.

Yeah. We’re flat for the six months, and we’re expecting the second half to be positive. And again, for our two big programs, there is MA, which was up for this quarter, the second quarter over 30%. As Scott described, LPN was down, but that was all due to the number of slots we have, because it fluctuates from quarter to quarter there. So hopefully that’ll catch up in Q3. So we are anticipating to be positive. I don’t have the number there.

Got it. Well, that’s very helpful. And just my last question on Lincoln 10.0, I see that you have covered 65%. You said, if I heard that correctly, 65% of the students would be under Lincoln 10.0. And I understand that there are cost efficiencies to be seen. Are there cost efficiencies...

Yeah. You’d see them in the educational line, it’s because of the increased efficiency that we’ll have with faculty. We’re starting to see it now, but to your point, we’ll definitely see more of it in 2025 as we see the benefits of blended learning coming to fruition. It does provide some better student to teacher ratios and better utilization of the classroom, which all adds to the efficiency. But it’s basically in the instructional line that you’ll see the savings.

Got it. Thank you for taking my questions. Again, congratulations, solid results.

Thanks, Raj.

Thanks, Raj.

The next question comes from Eric Martinuzzi with Lake Street Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Okay. We’ll try this again. Can you hear me?

We can hear you, Eric. Glad to hear you.

Okay. I promise I was not on mute. Not sure what happened, but let’s dive in here. So the 2027 plan, is that based on the existing campus footprint that we have, as well as that new location that’s planned for 2026, or is there a build-out beyond the 2026 campus location that’s...?

No. It’s still the same thing we talked about on the Investor Day. So it’s the two relocating campuses and the new Atlantic campus. So it’s just those campuses. Anything additional will be added to that along with the new programs that we discussed.

Yeah. It includes, I’m sorry, Houston as well. I’m sorry. The Atlantic campus, Houston, and the two relocating, but not the one that Scott described that we’ll be announcing shortly.

Yeah. So just to be clear, everything we’ve announced to date, except for the new one that we anticipate we’ll be announcing in the next quarter, it drives us to those results.

Gotcha. And then a follow-up on that, Houston, what specifically is the regulatory or the barrier to roll out there? Why did we have to kick the can on Houston?

Building permits. Everyone thinks of Texas as being very open and free with a lot of things, but for whatever reason, it took us longer to get some building permits approved.

Okay. And you said, so new students by the end of 2025, is that Q4 of 2025, Q3 or?

Yeah. Yes. At some point within the fourth quarter of 2025, we’ll have our first starts at that campus.

Okay. Thanks for taking my question.

No problem. Glad you were able to connect with us.

I show no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Scott for closing remarks.

Thanks, Operator. And we just want to thank everyone for joining our call. As you can see, Lincoln has a lot of positive momentum, and we really see that continuing into next year, and I believe even the year after. There’s so much that’s happening that we serve, and the need for what we do, we see increasing given the demand we hear from employers and given the trends we’re seeing in society, waking up to the fact that there are other opportunities for people to start their careers in a shorter, faster, more economical way, and that’s certainly what we’re all about at Lincoln Tech. We like to, as we say, we help students put their potential to work, and we look forward to doing that with more and more students. We look forward to updating you at our next earnings call, and we hope you all have a wonderful day. Thank you.

This does conclude today’s conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.