Cheniere Energy, Inc. Q1 FY2024 Earnings Call

Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call and Webcast. Today's call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Frances Smith, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at cheniere.com. This is Frances Smith on for Randy, who unfortunately couldn't be here this morning. Joining me are Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO; Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; Zach Davis, Executive Vice President and CFO; and other members of Cheniere's senior management. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide 2 of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks. In addition, we may include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow. A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in the appendix to the slide presentation. As part of our discussion of Cheniere's results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners LP, or CQP. We do not intend to cover CQP's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc. The call agenda is shown on Slide 3. Jack will begin with operating and financial highlights. Anatol will then provide an update on the LNG market, and Zach will review our financial results and guidance. After prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. I will now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO.

Thank you, Frances, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our first quarter results, highlighting a successful start to 2024 across the entire Cheniere platform. The first quarter was marked by strong financial results and outstanding execution across Cheniere, including all pillars of our capital allocation plan objectives. We made significant progress on future development across both sites, all of which continues to be enabled by a relentless focus to be the leading producer of LNG to the world. Our focus and commitment to operational excellence has never been more important, as we face significant and potentially exponential growth in power demand around the globe, which is projected to be met in part with natural gas-fired generation. The global acceleration of power demand is driven by the penetration of electric vehicles, the electrification of heating, cooling, industrial production, and most recently, power-hungry data centers. This opportunity is a global one and supports our long-held conviction regarding the structural shift to natural gas around the world. We believe natural gas and LNG are critical to enabling this long-term electrification as one of the most reliable, flexible, cost-competitive, and dispatchable energy sources, underscoring the critical need for further investment in LNG and natural gas infrastructure worldwide. Please turn to Slide 5, where I'll highlight our key accomplishments for the quarter. In the first quarter, we generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.8 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion, and net income of approximately $500 million. Zach will address the main drivers of our performance shortly, but I want to address some operational highlights from the quarter. In January, while the freeze event in Texas did not physically impact our Corpus Christi facility due to robust price protection protocols, we were affected by the impact on feed gas upstream infrastructure for natural gas production and processing located in the Permian. These impacts led to temporary composition changes in the quality of our feed gas, creating some production challenges during the quarter. While we cannot control these external factors, I am proud of the performance of Cheniere's production professionals who adapted quickly to address the challenges to meet all of our commercial commitments and maintain our track record of reliability. Despite the indirect freeze-related production challenges, we met all of our customer obligations. Our experience in operating the second-largest liquefaction platform in the world has prepared us to strategically and safely respond to volatility and disruptions throughout the LNG value chain, which has been evidenced repeatedly over the last several quarters. Overall, production across our platform was largely flat year-over-year, thanks to stellar operations, lower maintenance, and colder weather at Sabine Pass. We've optimized our maintenance schedule this year based on lessons learned from our first major turnaround last year. Year-to-date, we have already completed several smaller-scale, more efficient turnaround programs with minimized impacts to our ongoing operations. Looking ahead to the balance of 2024, we are reconfirming our full-year guidance of $5.5 billion to $6 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA and $2.9 billion to $3.4 billion of distributable cash flow. Our production forecast is largely unchanged since the February call, and we have an immaterial amount of volume remaining unsold. We'll continue to update our annual outlook as we progress further and approach planned maintenance during the upcoming hurricane season. During the first quarter, Zach and his team made significant progress across our capital allocation priorities, repurchasing over 7.5 million shares for approximately $1.2 billion, an all-time record quarterly amount for our company, demonstrating our opportunistic approach to share buybacks. We have continued to manage the balance sheet by opportunistically refinancing approximately $1.5 billion of debt maturing next year with an overall investment-grade bond at the Cheniere Energy level. Additionally, we repaid $150 million of long-term debt at SPL during the quarter. We also paid a quarterly dividend of $0.435 and invested over $500 million in Stage 3, which continues to progress extremely well. Speaking of Stage 3, turn to Slide 6, where I'll update you on the status of our expansion projects at Corpus Christi Stage 3 and mid-scale trains 8, and 9 in the SPL expansion project. Bechtel continues to progress construction on Stage 3 on an accelerated schedule, with the project standing at over 55% completion at the end of March. All coal boxes for trains 1 through 3 have been set in place. More than 90% of the pipeline has been installed, all mechanical equipment for Train 1 has been delivered to the site, concrete work for trains 2 and 3 is over 70% complete, and the compressors for trains 2 and 3 have been set. I remain optimistic that, along with Bechtel, we will achieve first LNG by the end of 2024 and bring all seven trains online before the end of 2026. During the quarter, we continued to work closely with FERC to progress the permitting approval process for trains 8 and 9 at Corpus Christi. We expect to receive our environmental assessment soon and remain confident in receiving all necessary regulatory approvals to sanction the project in 2025. For our major growth project at Sabine Pass, the SPL expansion project, we submitted the full applications to FERC and DOE in February. Anatol and the team are focused on commercializing the project. We are managing the balance sheet and CQP's funding plan in advance of sanctioning the project, targeted for 2026. In February, I highlighted my confidence in the critical role of U.S. LNG in the global energy market and the need for significant investment in liquefaction capacity today to meet the expected growth in global demand over the coming decades. The United States has an unprecedented opportunity to provide real long-term energy solutions while meaningfully lowering global emissions. My conviction in this is as strong as ever, and I believe the over $40 billion brownfield infrastructure platform we've developed best positions Cheniere to participate in future growth while supplying the world with our cleaner burning LNG. Let’s address the vast benefits and the critical role of LNG on the next slide. Recently, some reports have challenged the environmental benefits of LNG compared to coal. When compared to coal, natural gas is a more efficient energy source for power generation resulting in lower greenhouse gas emissions and traditional pollutants, which improves air quality and public health. Peer-reviewed studies examining U.S. LNG delivered to China for power generation estimate that coal-to-gas switching results in approximately 50% lower greenhouse gas emissions on a full life cycle basis. We strongly disagree with recent research that claims the opposite while utilizing cherry-picked assumptions that have not gone through peer review. We expect natural gas and LNG to serve as significant drivers of global decarbonization like it has in the U.S., where the IEA estimates that coal to gas switching has reduced over 500 million metric tons of CO2 emissions since 2005. We continue to focus on full life cycle environmental performance and are working to improve our Scope 1 methane and CO2 intensity. By engaging with our supply chain partners, we aim to deploy detection and quantification technologies to enhance the life cycle emissions profile of our LNG, further highlighting its sustainability as a fuel source. Beyond environmental advantages, the reliability, dispatchability, and relative affordability of natural gas are unmatched. Developing economies understandably prioritize energy security, reliability, and affordability over climate considerations. Global coal consumption reached 8.5 gigatons in 2023, surpassing 2022's total and setting a new all-time record, with the highest increases coming from rapidly emerging economies like China and India. Coal-to-gas switching in emerging markets represents a long-term energy solution that enhances energy security while significantly improving the emissions profile. Natural gas and LNG currently offer common-sense solutions to powering emerging economies around the world while reducing global emissions to meet climate policies. The global call for energy security, particularly in Europe, underscores the long-term role of natural gas in both developed and developing economies, further evidenced by the trillions invested in natural gas infrastructure worldwide. Our long-term tailored LNG solutions provide customers with reliable energy supply while maintaining flexibility regarding energy transition plans. At home, the LNG industry is stimulating the economy and creating thousands of jobs, supporting domestic production and stabilizing energy prices through long-term predictable demand. The LNG growth case is clear, and we will safely and reliably operate our two facilities on the Gulf Coast, generating value for stakeholders by delivering on our promises to customers, investors, employees, regulators, and communities. With that, I'll hand it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you all for your continued support of Cheniere.

Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 9. The global LNG market remained fundamentally balanced throughout the first quarter as winter supply risks moderated, achieving market equilibrium at relatively lower prices compared to last year. Mild weather in Europe and sustained elevated gas inventories pressured global prices, which fell low enough to stimulate spot buying activity across Asia. For the first quarter, JKM and TTF averaged $11.90 in MMBtu and $9.41 in MMBtu, respectively, both down more than 50% year-over-year and significantly lower than full-year 2022 levels. We have also seen a decrease in the first quarter, falling to an average of $2.42, down 35% year-on-year. At these lower price levels, incremental price-sensitive demand emerged in Asia, particularly strong in China, India, Thailand, and other emerging Asian economies as they replenished LNG inventories. This resulted in about a 4% year-on-year increase in total global LNG import growth in the first quarter, supported by a small but meaningful uptick in Latin American markets, including Colombia, due to dry conditions and low hydropower levels. The middle chart shows a visible uptick in tendering activity in Asia, with JKM prices remaining over 50% lower than a year ago. Tenders for deliveries to the region in Q1 climbed to the highest level since the third quarter of 2021. Notably, the price elastic markets of India and China represented 47% and 22% of the total awarded cargoes during the quarter. Nevertheless, U.S. LNG continued to flow predominantly to Europe, partly due to trade route optimization as the Panama and Suez canals remain constrained. The logistical challenges with both canals have had a relatively limited impact on market fluidity, given only 10% of global LNG flows historically transit these waterways. Let’s address the regional dynamics for the next page. In Europe, short-term demand fundamentals remain subdued and largely unchanged despite some industrial demand returning in countries like Germany and the Netherlands. The well-supplied market, along with lower power generation due in part to warm weather and reduced economic activity, has continued to suppress gas demand across all sectors. February and March saw record lows for gas demand, with total consumption in key European markets dropping 2.6% year-on-year. Gas-fired generation fell 8.4% year-on-year following a recovery in hydropower, strong winds, and lower power demand, all of which reduced the need for thermal generation. Additionally, industrial gas consumption in the first quarter remained about 20% below 2021 levels despite European gas prices falling to pre-crisis levels. Consequently, LNG imports to Europe fell 4.4 million tonnes or 13% year-on-year amid high storage levels, which stood at over 58% full entering injection season, the highest since 2011. These dynamics resulted in TTF trading at a discount to JKM for most of the quarter, allowing cargoes to flow steadily to Asia as end users in the region capitalized on reduced price levels to increase purchases and replenish stocks early in the season. Most notably, in China, LNG imports for the first quarter grew by 4 million tonnes year-on-year, a 25% increase as China reinforces its position as the largest LNG market globally. The increased pull on gas from various sources in China during the quarter, including pipe imports and domestic production, coupled with expansion of gas infrastructure, further underscores China's commitment to natural gas as a long-term primary energy source. During the quarter, China added about 2.4 gigawatts of gas-fired power generation on top of the nearly 10 gigawatts added last year and the 49 gigawatts currently under construction, which we believe will continue to drive natural gas demand in the region. Similar buying patterns emerged in India and Thailand, where imports rose 45% and 27%, respectively, during the quarter, driven by increased gas-fired power demand. This reinforces our thesis that latent demand from price-sensitive end-use markets will continue to emerge as commodity prices stabilize. These increases were in stark contrast to the less price-sensitive markets of North Asia, particularly Japan and Korea, where a slowdown in electricity demand, combined with higher nuclear availability, impacted gas demand in the region. LNG imports into Japan and Korea dropped by 2.5 million tons year-on-year, partially offsetting the 8.4 million tonnes of annualized incremental imports seen in China and Southeast Asia. On a net basis, Asia's imports rose by approximately 6 million tonnes year-on-year during the quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with positive growth. As we look ahead, we see several factors that could tighten the current market balance. U.S. Gulf Coast facilities are experiencing heavier-than-usual maintenance, and certain international facilities are constrained as exporters look to the import market. Summer heat waves in India and China are expected to elevate seasonal demand, and any delays in expected new supply could exacerbate this tightness. Now moving to the next slide to discuss the period post-2025. The tight and volatile market conditions over the past few years have led to several projects reaching FID, resulting in roughly 200 million tons per annum of LNG production capacity under construction globally, with more targeting FID to address the supply/demand gap forecasted to open later this decade. The forthcoming supply cycle emphasizes the cyclical nature of this industry and the uneven nature of LNG supply growth relative to demand. Many commentators caution that the market may tip into oversupply later this decade as projects under construction start service. We recognize that the global capacity under construction, along with potential FIDs, could generate a more significant supply increase than seen in previous cycles. However, we believe the underlying market should accommodate this growth without resorting to curtailments on the supply side. Historically, the market has only needed to resort to balancing mechanisms in 2020 due to the pandemic's unprecedented demand impacts. It is vital to note that while the amount of new supply may be larger than previous cycles, it represents a smaller proportion of the overall LNG trade than in prior waves. We now have a more flexible and diverse global LNG market than ever before, with over 1,200 million tons of import capacity available by the middle of the decade, plus another 100 million tons or so in development that will ensure more efficient supply and demand matching. Following the recent high spot prices, we perceive latent demand poised to be stimulated at adequate price levels, which we have already seen year-to-date. We anticipate that the upcoming startup of new LNG supply will help moderate spot prices and volatility to more affordable and stable levels, cementing LNG’s position as a cost-effective, secure, and sustainable component of baseload energy supply, especially for high-growth nations in Asia reliant on coal. In summary, we believe new LNG supply in the coming years will be efficiently absorbed by the market, supporting a price and volatility environment that reinforces LNG and natural gas as long-term reliable, flexible, and cost-competitive energy solutions. With that, I'll turn the call over to Zach to review our financial results and guidance.

Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to review our first quarter 2024 results, key financial accomplishments, and guidance. For the first quarter of 2024, we generated net income of approximately $502 million, consolidated adjusted EBITDA of about $1.8 billion, and distributable cash flow of around $1.2 billion. With today's results, we have reported positive net income on a quarterly and cumulative trailing four-quarter basis for six consecutive quarters. Our first quarter 2024 results reflect lower international gas prices compared to last year as well as a higher proportion of our LNG sold under long-term contracts. As Jack noted, our results also reflect some impacts on our operations at CCL following the winter freeze in Texas. Fortunately, our team managed to forward-sell several cargoes at elevated margins, which, coupled with incremental volumes at SPL, partially offset these production impacts. During the first quarter, we recognized an income of 619 TBtu of physical LNG, including 608 TBtu from our projects and 11 TBtu sourced from third parties. Approximately 90% of these LNG volumes recognized in income were sold under long-term SPA or IPM agreements with terms exceeding 10 years. This year, our team has continued to execute on our 2020 Vision capital allocation plan, maintaining year-to-date momentum since our call in February. In just the first quarter, we deployed about $2 billion towards shareholder returns, balance sheet management, and disciplined growth, bringing our total to over $10 billion deployed from the $20-plus billion we forecasted in fall 2022. As we strive for a $20 per share run rate distributable cash flow, we remain committed to deploying our DCF efficiently and value accretively. During the quarter, we repurchased over 7.5 million shares for about $1.2 billion, marking the most active quarter for our buyback plan to date, representing over 3% of our shares outstanding in just one quarter. This activity last quarter accelerated our progress towards the completion of our three-year $4 billion share repurchase authorization, narrowing the gap between our debt paydown and share buybacks. There is now less than $1 billion remaining on the current authorization, prompting discussions with our board for a new plan, with expectations for implementation before the end of the year while always maintaining a balanced approach to capital allocation focusing on attractive brownfield growth at both sites. Moving to the balance sheet, as Jack mentioned, we issued the inaugural investment-grade bond at CEI in March, and in April, we utilized the $1.5 billion proceeds from our 5.65% senior notes to retire the $1.5 billion of 5.875% senior secured notes at CCH due 2025. This timing dynamic explains our elevated cash and debt balances at quarter-end, with both balances reduced by $1.5 billion post-payment of the CCH 25 notes. Following our strategic refinancing playbook, this transaction extends our maturity profile and reduces our interest burden while desecuring and desubordinating our balance sheet. During the quarter, we also repaid approximately $150 million of long-term indebtedness, further addressing the 2024 SPL notes due later this month. In February, Moody's issued a positive outlook at both CQP and SPL, which we hope will lead to favorable rating actions as we continue to opportunistically delever and desubordinate our structure this year and beyond. We also declared a dividend of $0.435 per common share for Q1 last week and remain committed to our guidance of growing our dividend by approximately 10% annually into the mid-2020s through the construction of Stage 3. Over time, we plan to steadily increase our overall payout ratio as our platform grows while maintaining the financial flexibility crucial to our long-term capital allocation plan and growth objectives. At CQP, we declared a distribution of $0.81 per common unit for the first quarter, consisting of a base distribution and a variable amount. Adjusting the variable component enables us to preserve cash and balance sheet capacity ahead of the SPL expansion project. In the near term, any deleveraging can be seen as early investments for the SPL expansion project until we formally sanction it, raise financing, and commence construction, which we continue to expect in 2026. During the quarter, we funded just over $500 million of CapEx at our Stage 3 project, bringing total spend to approximately $3.5 billion for the project. We still expect to spend between $1.5 billion and $2 billion in Stage 3 CapEx this year. Turning to Slide 14, let's discuss our 2024 guidance and outlook for the year. Again, we reconfirm our full-year 2024 guidance ranges of $5.5 billion to $6 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA and $2.9 billion to $3.4 billion in distributable cash flow. We expect 2024 to be our most contracted year yet, anticipating it to be a trough year for EBITDA as we expect our results to trend higher following this year when Stage 3 commences and eventually reaches its run rate by the end of 2026. As a reminder, our operating and financial results and forecast reflect some degree of seasonality, with typically higher winter production at our facilities, coupled with typically higher pricing in international markets. We expect a seasonal weighting of our results toward the colder quarters compared to warmer ones. For the balance of the year, we don't anticipate meaningful changes to our earnings forecast, expecting to produce around 45 million tonnes of LNG, including planned maintenance at both sites, with minimal unsold capacity remaining. We do not forecast any contributions to revenues or EBITDA from Stage 3 in 2024. Our DCF could be affected by changes in the tax code under the IRA, but today's guidance is based on current IRA tax law and assumes we're subject to a minimum corporate tax of 15% this year. As the year progresses, we expect to tighten our ranges in line with our past practices. Despite limited exposure this year and a lower LNG price environment, our guidance remains above our nine-train run rate forecast, and we're in solid shape to achieve our 2020 Vision capital allocation plan. Looking beyond 2024, our contracted infrastructure platform is designed to insulate our financial results from short-term market dislocations or periods of volatility, particularly as the market absorbs new LNG capacity later this decade. Critically, our long-term outlook for the global LNG market remains unchanged. Our periods of moderated market prices and sentiment have facilitated our capital allocation progress and create a competitive edge. Every dollar deployed positions Cheniere for a resilient and profitable future. The inherent stability and long-term visibility of contracted cash flows, along with our scale, enable us to return capital to stakeholders while pursuing further disciplined brownfield growth and delivering affordable, cleaner-burning energy to our customers worldwide. That concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and interest in Cheniere. Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.

We'll take our first question from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

Anatol, I think you had some interesting commentary regarding the demand response to prices. I was just wondering if you might be able to elaborate more on that, how deep that could be, or what that could mean in the coming years given some of the supply dynamics, or perhaps just examples of what you're seeing?

Yes, sure, Jeremy. First of all, it's an infrastructure question. Both Jack and I touched on this—hundreds of millions of tons of regas capacity and pipe storage capacity are being added globally. This includes Europe, where Germany just received its fifth FSRU, and Greece is coming online as well, along with Asia, where China is set to double its regas capacity. We don't foresee a market where significant bottlenecks will emerge, allowing these markets to absorb marginal volumes. We estimate that capacity is roughly in the order of 50 million to 100 million tonnes. You observed a noticeable pickup in tendering activity in China and India in the first quarter. We believe that with this added infrastructure and investments in gas, the market can balance at moderate price levels of high single to low double digits.

High single, low double. Okay. I was curious, I guess, Corpus continues to make great progress there. Any thoughts you could share about what that could mean for 2025 in the business overall and how that could impact the pace of buybacks moving forward?

All right. Jeremy, I'll start. Yes, I'm very pleased with the progress that's being made at Corpus. Looking at the pictures, you can see Train 1, 2, and 3 and their progress; we're well ahead of plan. I commend Bechtel, but we aren't celebrating just yet; we're very optimistic about our ability to start producing LNG this year on Train 1. With that, I’ll turn it to Zach.

Thanks, Jeremy. Of course, we are focused on first LNG this year. But it’s really about the ramp-up of those first few trains throughout this year and into next, which will generate meaningful millions of tonnes of LNG and a financial impact in 2025, making '24 more of the trough year, as we’ve stated. Regarding the buyback, any buyback at this time would be treated positively considering we came up with the 2020 Vision and our over $20 billion of available cash considering guaranteed completion dates. These completion dates we are discussing are nearly a year ahead of schedule. We guided everyone that over $10 billion would be deployed through 2026 for debt paydown and buybacks; we will surpass that. It was always the intention to upsize the buyback plan within this time period, which is the only path to getting closer to the 200 million shares over time. We're under $1 billion for the buyback plan following the 7.5 million shares bought in the last quarter; I expect a considerable increase to the buyback plan later this year.

Got it. That’s very helpful. We look forward to the 200.

And our next question will come from Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

Just a follow-up on the buyback question. I realize you have to go through a board process on the authorization. Just to get a sense of magnitude, thinking about the cash position, even after that April debt repayment, I believe you have $3 billion cash. Big picture, how much excess cash do you see the company having right now aside from ongoing cash generation?

There’s definitely plenty of liquidity for everything as we continue to fund Stage 3 and grow the dividend later this year while paying down some debt as we ramp down the variable DPU at CQP. We indeed have over $3 billion of cash on the balance sheet, and we anticipate generating over $3 billion of DCF based on our forecast for the year. Additionally, we have over $3 billion available on the term loan at Corpus. So liquidity is not the issue. We will be methodically buying back stock over time, being opportunistic, as it is crucial to getting down to 200 million shares by the middle of the decade.

Great. As a second question, you mentioned Q1 EBITDA was strong with better winter volumes, more of your higher-priced above-market hedges. How are you thinking about the year overall? You also mentioned some gas quality issues due to the weather. Have you seen any notable optimization benefits or market-based opportunities? Is Permian gas helping you? Anything noteworthy?

Just to consider, especially compared to '22 and '23, when evaluating Henry Hub shipping day rates or commodity prices on an absolute basis, they are much lower. Thus, it becomes difficult to identify as many arbitrages and extract as much from optimization. But optimization has been favorable; we’ve probably gained over $50 million so far this year. And with some SPL outperformance, we are already tracking above the midpoint of our EBITDA guidance, despite the need for production increases at CCL for the rest of the year.

And Keith, this is Jack. This year is about execution for us; we need to safely execute on our engineering and construction plans, operational excellence, and continue commercializing the SPL expansion.

Our next question will come from John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

This is a question for Anatol. You’ve been clear on the positive outlook for global gas demand growth for a while now. How has your forecast changed over the last couple of quarters? If you want to share the global data center demand growth number, we’d be interested.

Sure, thanks, John. Our ultimate forecast has been relatively stable; we maintain the 700 million tons in 2040 projection. However, the supply side has significantly shifted, mainly with Arctic Russia’s removal from the supply stack. We believe the demand side, as previously discussed with Jeremy, is constrained by having an affordable, reliable LNG stream to supply. The electrification aspect of the world plays a pivotal role here. Data centers are experiencing global growth, and major companies are developing in numerous countries. We engage with parties focused on this dynamic, which is crucial for gas generation demand and LNG’s role.

That makes sense. Could you share your thoughts on converting recent purchases into future SPAs?

Yes. The countries seeing significant price elastic demand are primarily in Asia, including South and Southeast Asia and China. The infrastructure there is not a constraint; countries like Thailand are setting records for LNG imports. We expect India to also record monthly LNG imports, demonstrating a good engagement level. Our historical experiences with LNG and Cheniere enhance our commercial discussions.

Our next question comes from Theresa Chen with Barclays.

Following the emergence and growing share of the price-sensitive markets, particularly the uptick in India, how do you view India's long-term demand for LNG, its regas capability, and more?

India is one of the countries committed to substantially increasing gas usage as a primary energy source. Its capacity will soon exceed 70 million tons, currently approaching 50 million tons, which is double its import rate. We don’t see infrastructure bottlenecks in these markets; it’s a price elastic market. Fertilizer consumption is less price elastic, while power generation is more, leading to price-driven purchases at rates meeting our long-term contracted economics. We are well-positioned for those opportunities.

Could you discuss the growth in data centers and its impact on global LNG flows and any necessary infrastructure?

Yes. We foresee a doubling of demand for power from data centers globally by 2030, driven in part by more power-hungry technologies. The companies involved are exploring opportunities to expand capacities in areas with favorable conditions, potentially prompting revisions in Japan's power demand forecasts this fall.

Our next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Citi.

An update on the Sabine Pass expansion, particularly commercial discussions—how are they progressing? You had a busy year with significant agreements last year; how do you view 2024?

Yes, thanks, Spiro. As discussed last quarter, this is a market phase where buyers reassess due to unprecedented contracting in '22, with no urgency like before. Discussions are healthy and progressing, reflective of normal market engagement rather than the frenzy of '22. Our confidence stems from our performance and delivery record, critical during this period.

Can you quantify how much maintenance is left and where the heavier periods might be throughout the year?

Yes, Spiro. Our team has effectively optimized maintenance schedules making it less noticeable. While I won’t provide specifics, major planned maintenance will mostly occur in Q2 and Q3, which typically sees lower production due to warmer weather. Expect a decrease in EBITDA, which is why we're tracking well within guidelines but maintain original forecast guidance.

Our next question will come from Ben Nolan with Stifel.

We’re hearing about rising EPC costs and labor shortages. It doesn’t seem like these are issues for you at Corpus. How are you positioned longer-term for long-term agreements given these dynamics?

As you know, we maintain a long-term relationship with Bechtel, managing inflationary costs diligently. We currently have over 3,000 workers at Corpus, with numbers expected to reach nearly 4,000 mid-year without significant worker availability issues. Bechtel’s early deliveries keep us on track, enabling us to benefit from early production while maintaining our financial criteria.

Our discipline on project expenses is critical. If we can't build at the 6x to 7x CapEx to EBITDA level, we’ll increasingly focus on buybacks and the valuation of Cheniere without capturing all our brownfield growth prospects. We’re already working with Bechtel on a comprehensive sense of our SPL expansion costs. Should there be delays, it would only increase our liquidity for the buyback plan that will be announced later this year.

There appears to be slow activity among U.S. projects since the start of the year. Is this due to pause-related actions, price sensitivity, or just a natural elongation of the process?

It's challenging to pinpoint. The unprecedented contracting of 150 million tons in '22 and '23 has caused adjustments in buyers’ approaches. The current phase of discussions is healthier and slower than before, yet still advancing. Our successful track record and Corpus Stage 3 progress act as compelling selling points for Cheniere.

Our next question comes from Jason Gabelman with TD Cowen.

You mentioned $950 million left on the buyback authorization after doing $1.2 billion in Q1. If you want to maintain that pace, you'll need to reauthorize soon. When could that happen?

It won't be this quarter; we aim to work with the Board over the next quarter or so. It largely depends on how quickly we deploy the remaining $950 million. If prices remain stable, we hope to finalize changes sooner rather than later. We’ll have an upsized plan ready before the end of the year.

In terms of supply-demand balance, you’ve addressed demand extensively, but some larger peers are discussing delays to industry capacity. Are you seeing that to any extent? Can you quantify expected capacity coming online in 2025 that may be pushed out?

I'm very pleased with our E&C team’s performance. At Cheniere, we ensure proper execution that others are discussing as difficult. As for exact quantities, I’ll defer to you, Anatol.

Historically, about two-thirds of LNG projects face delays. Cheniere is an anomaly, running an average of nine months early for trains. Projects with FID in '19 are being delayed, likely to arrive mid-next year. You’ll see these phenomena globally. Wood Mac has reset its forecasts the same way, reflecting realities faced during craft labor phases.

Our next question comes from Craig Shere with Tuohy Brothers.

Anatol, there’s discussion on global power demand growth and AI/data centers. Has the mindset shifted to systemic needs for more baseload power instead of just backup power?

We engage with key counterparties who have always recognized this need. Backup to intermittency remains important, an area where our product excels. Portfolio players recognize our product as baseload. This idea resonates more in Asia than Europe.

On the lifecycle emissions discussion, do you see increased demand for carbon capture solutions?

We're the only private company that performed our own lifecycle analysis; we had it peer-reviewed and published. We aim to improve this further, enhancing data. We're working with the National Petroleum Council to develop a lifecycle analysis accessible to those without extensive resources. We expect that this pause to study lifecycle emissions will yield insights, and we will be ready to discuss it with transparent data.

That concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now hand the conference back over for any additional remarks.

Thank you all for your support and attention this morning. Be safe.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. We appreciate your participation. Have an excellent day.