LyondellBasell Industries N.V. Q1 FY2023 Earnings Call

Hello, and welcome to the LyondellBasell Teleconference. At the request of LyondellBasell, this conference is being recorded for instant replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Kinney, Head of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Thank you, operator. Before we begin the discussion, I would like to point out that a slide presentation accompanies today's call and is available on our website at www.lyondellbasell.com/investorrelations. Today, we will be discussing our business results while making reference to some forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. We believe the forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions and the alternative measures are useful to investors. Nonetheless, the forward-looking statements are subject to significant risk and uncertainty. We encourage you to learn more about the factors that could lead our actual results to differ by reviewing the cautionary statements in the presentation slides and our regulatory filings, which are also available on our Investor Relations website. Comments made on this call will be in regard to our underlying business results using non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and earnings per share, excluding identified items. Additional documents on our Investor website provide reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures, together with other disclosures, including the earnings release and our business results discussion. A recording of this call will be available by telephone beginning at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time today until May 28 by calling 877-660-6853 in the United States and 201-612-7415 outside the United States. The access code for both numbers is 13735436. Joining today's call will be Peter Vanacker, LyondellBasell's Chief Executive Officer; our CFO, Michael McMurray; Ken Lane, our Executive Vice President of Global Olefins and Polyolefins; Kim Foley, our EVP of Intermediates and Derivatives and Refining; and Torkel Rhenman, our EVP of Advanced Polymer Solutions. During today's call, we will focus on first quarter results, current market dynamics and our near-term outlook. With that being said, I would now like to turn the call over to Peter.

Thank you, David. Welcome to all of you. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our first quarter 2023 results. We will begin on Slide number 3 with our safety performance. Our workforce continues to deliver excellent safety performance for the start of 2023. LyondellBasell's year-to-date incident rate for employees and contractors is 0.16, which continues to be below the rate seen in prior years. Safety will continue to be a fundamental part of our core values as we move forward with the implementation of our exciting new strategy. Let's turn to Slide number 4 and review the new strategy that we launched last month at our Capital Markets Day. As you can see, much work was already underway. Our strategy is built around three pillars. We're convinced that the successful implementation of our new strategy will increase our normalized EBITDA by $3 billion to $10 billion by 2027. This should ultimately result in a more profitable and sustainable growth engine for LyondellBasell. The three pillars for growing and upgrading our core, building a profitable circular and low-carbon solutions business; and finally, stepping up our performance and culture. In the grow and upgrade the core, we are focused on the areas of our portfolio where we have leading positions and competitive advantages that are aligned with our long-term goals. We will reinvest to grow and improve upon those advantaged positions by leveraging our leading technologies to generate returns at scale. In the second pillar, we are committed to building a profitable circular and low-carbon solutions business that would enable our leadership in circularity and address the massive customer demand for these products and solutions in a profitable way. We expect this business will generate at least $1 million of incremental EBITDA by 2030. The third pillar of our strategy is to step up our performance and culture. Our company has a well-earned reputation for strong operational excellence and cost leadership. Our goal is to build on these strengths to capture untapped value across the company through modest investments. We have established a value enhancement program that is prioritizing and delivering on these initiatives. Our value enhancement program is on track to deliver more than $750 million of recurring annual EBITDA by the end of 2025. These three pillars do not stand alone. The pillars of our strategy are interconnected and reinforce each other. For example, we step up our performance and culture to create value. We will reinvest that value in growing and upgrading our core. Returns from a larger and more profitable core will be allocated to build a more sustainable circular and low-carbon solutions business. And the cash generation from all these activities will continue to provide generous shareholder returns. Our strategy serves the needs of our customers, employees, investors, and society. We did not wait until our Capital Markets Day in March to start executing this strategy. Slide number four highlights our actions across three pillars over the past year. As part of growing and upgrading the core, we announced in April 2022 that we would exit the refining business. We are now evaluating options to transform the facility to serve our long-term objectives, particularly around circular and low-carbon solutions. Last April, we divested our Australian polypropylene business, and at our Capital Markets Day, we announced a strategic review for our ethylene oxide & derivatives business. We are improving our focus with investments in businesses that fit with our long-term strategy. An example is the successful start-up of our new PO/TBA facility, the largest propylene oxide plant in the world over the past month. This project was an enormous undertaking across two Houston area facilities. During the height of construction, we had a workforce of more than 3,000 people. This is the sixth PO/TBA plant built by LyondellBasell since inventing the technology in the 1960s. Our plant doubles the scale of our prior plans, improves yields, increases product recovery and incorporates hundreds of design improvements that save energy, reduce emissions and lower costs. The net result is that we believe propylene oxide from our PO/TBA technology has a lower carbon footprint relative to the most widely used PO technologies. And our cost of production is the lowest in the world. The new plant was producing on-spec products at rates of 70% or above within one month from start-up. I want to sincerely thank our team for all the hard work and dedication that went into this extremely successful launch of new production capacity. The PO/TBA plant is just one example of how we are growing and upgrading our core businesses. Through our value enhancement program, our team is unlocking additional production volumes across our business portfolio through hundreds of initiatives to increase capacity and improve reliability. In the second half of last year, we established our circular and low-carbon solutions business unit to address the rapidly growing demand for circular and renewable products. Since that time, we have staffed up the organization and announced multiple acquisitions, partnerships, and other arrangements. Just this week, we announced that LyondellBasell will acquire the other half of our QCP mechanical recycling joint venture in Europe. This is another step forward in our work to achieve our sustainability goals. We are securing recycled and renewable feedstocks and building regional hubs to leverage our technologies and provide powerful advantages for our comprehensive business model. Last December, we increased our greenhouse gas emission reduction goals to establish a leadership position within our industry by aligning with science-based climate guidance. As part of this, we set a goal to procure at least half of our global electricity from renewable sources by 2030. In just 10 months, we've announced agreements that will achieve 70% of our renewable power target with approximately 1,100 megawatts of renewable generation capacity. The agreements will reduce LyondellBasell's greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 1.1 million tons, and that is nearly 15% of our 2020 Scope 2 emissions. We provide an in-depth look at our progress on sustainability with our newly published 2022 sustainability report. And as you know, that is available on our website. This report highlights how we can create substantial enterprise value through leadership in sustainability, which is core to our strategy of creating solutions for everyday sustainable living. Our work to step-up performance and culture is the third pillar of our strategy. In October, we streamlined our organizational structure to improve line of sight with clear accountabilities and improved alignment across our commercial and manufacturing functions. And at our Capital Markets Day, Torkel Rhenman described the work that is underway to transform our Advanced Polymer Solutions segment. In addition, we are leveraging the structure of our value enhancement program to drive commercial excellence and improve our customer focus. Altogether, the three pillars of LyondellBasell's strategy are working side by side to form a growth engine that captures value and delivers a more profitable and sustainable portfolio of businesses. Let's now turn to slide number five to discuss our financial performance. During the first quarter, LyondellBasell's business portfolio delivered solid results, reflecting moderately improving market conditions. Earnings were $2.50 per share, more than 90% of our fourth quarter results. EBITDA was $1.5 billion, and we generated nearly $500 million in cash from operating activities. We ended the quarter with $1.8 billion of cash on hand and $5.8 billion of available liquidity. Our company generated a 12% return on invested capital over the past 12 months. The strength of our investment-grade balance sheet and our disciplined approach to capital allocation enable us to confidently move forward with our strategy, while continuing to provide attractive returns to shareholders through all stages of the business cycle. With that, I will turn the call over to Michael first and then to each of our business leaders, who will describe our financial and segment results in more detail.

Thank you, Peter, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide six, and let me begin by describing how we are extending our track record of outstanding cash generation. In the first quarter, LyondellBasell generated nearly $500 million of cash from operating activities that contributed toward our total of $5.1 billion over the last 12 months. Our cash balance was $1.8 billion at the end of the first quarter. Over the last four quarters, our team efficiently converted 89% of our EBITDA into cash. During the first quarter, our cash conversion dipped to 35% driven by increased sales volumes and additional inventory required to serve customers during upcoming maintenance. Nonetheless, we expect to continue converting approximately 80% of EBITDA to cash over the longer term, as we have done in the past. We remain committed to delivering returns to our shareholders. Over the last 12 months, we returned $3.5 billion in the form of dividends and share repurchases. Let's continue with slide seven and review the details of our cash generation and allocation during the first quarter. The LyondellBasell team remains focused on disciplined capital allocation to provide strong returns for our shareholders. During the past four quarters, we returned 107% of free cash flow to our shareholders. This is well above the annual target of 70% that I shared with you at our Capital Markets Day. During the first quarter, we returned approximately $460 million to shareholders through our quarterly dividends and share repurchases. First quarter capital expenditures were $352 million, approximately $120 million less than the fourth quarter. With a successful start-up of our world-scale PO/TBA plant, capital expenditures related to the construction of the plant will be replaced with growing cash generation. Our continued investments in maintenance and smaller growth projects remain within our plan of $1.6 billion for 2023. Now, I'd like to provide an overview of the results for each of our segments on slide eight. LyondellBasell's business portfolio delivered $1.5 billion of EBITDA during the first quarter. Our results reflect moderate margin and volume improvements across most segments due to improving global demand and lower energy costs. Results in our olefins and polyolefins businesses benefited from higher asset utilization. Demand for fuels remained strong, and our oxyfuels and refining businesses continued to earn margins above historical averages. Please note that our first quarter segment results reflect the movement of our Catalloy and polybutylene businesses from the APS segment to the O&P Americas and O&P EAI segments, effective as of January 1st. We filed an 8-K on March 7th that provides summary historical financial information for the three prior years. During the quarter, we recognized $69 million in costs related to the exit from a refining business and a non-cash goodwill impairment of $252 million related to our Advanced Polymer Solutions segment. As I mentioned last quarter, we expect to incur approximately $75 million of EBITDA impact as well as $55 million of depreciation related to the exit from our refining business during each quarter of 2023. As a follow-up to our 2023 plant maintenance guidance, we decided to pull forward some planned maintenance in our O&P Americas segment to the second quarter. We expect this will result in an additional impact of $90 million for a total estimated EBITDA headwind of $110 million for the segment during the second quarter of 2023. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ken.

Thank you, Michael. Let's begin the segment discussions on slide nine with the performance of our Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment. During the first quarter, O&P Americas EBITDA increased $157 million to $541 million. North American Olefins margins improved on lower feedstock costs, while polyethylene margins increased on higher pricing. In the second quarter, we expect slightly better seasonal demand leading to modest improvements in volume and margins. The recent start-up delays for new industry polyethylene capacity should tighten markets and benefit margins over the coming months. Costs for feedstocks and energy are expected to remain relatively low during the summer season. LyondellBasell will continue to manage operating rates in line with moderately improving demand. We expect to operate our O&P Americas assets at a rate of approximately 85% in the second quarter. This is inclusive of the additional planned maintenance mentioned by Michael. In February, we announced a new long-term feedstock agreement with Nexus Circular. This will supply LyondellBasell's low-carbon solutions business unit with 24,000 tons per year of recycled feedstock. Nexus Circular's new facility will convert mixed plastic waste into recycled liquid feedstock for our ethylene crackers, ultimately producing new plastics under the circular revive brand. This agreement is just one component of our rapid multifaceted strategy execution.

Thank you, Ken. Please turn to Slide 12 as we look at the Intermediates and Derivatives segment. EBITDA for the segment increased by $135 million in the first quarter to $426 million. Propylene oxide volumes increased with higher operating rates after planned downtime last quarter, while margins decreased on continued weak demand for durable goods. Oxyfuel margins remained strong, supported by low inventories and steady demand for gasoline. Overall, we operated our assets at approximately 85% for the quarter. As highlighted at our Capital Markets Day in March, we have successfully started up our new PO/TBA plant, which is the largest propylene oxide plant in the world. This start-up was many years in the making, and I am incredibly proud of what our team has accomplished. In line with the guidance from last quarter, a heavy planned maintenance schedule across our propylene oxide assets in 2023 will largely offset the benefits from this new volume during the first year of operations. In 2023, we'll be focused on driving safety, quality, and reliability as we fine-tune the operation of this new PO/TBA plant and ramp up cash generation in 2024. For the second quarter, we expect to run our global IND assets at approximately 80% of capacity in line with demand.

Thank you, Kim. Now let's review the first quarter results on Slide 14. First quarter EBITDA increased $52 million to $26 million. Margins for the polypropylene compounding business improved, as product sales prices captured a higher share of rising raw material prices. All of our business areas saw moderately higher demand. We expect demand will moderately improve across most APS businesses during the second quarter. After spending time in this role, I've met with many customers who have told us how much they value our products and innovations. We're working every day to improve our service levels and meet our customers' needs to transform this business. As we mentioned last quarter, we reshaped APS by moving the Catalloy and polybutane businesses into the O&P Americas and O&P EAI segments, which will allow us to focus on what is core to APS, serving customers with tailored solutions. To further support the growing and shaping of APS core, we announced in March that we have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Mepol Group. Mepol’s expertise in sustainable compounding fits perfectly into our overall strategy to be a leading provider of sustainable solutions. We are confident that our APS platform has significant potential. While our team will have some autonomy to install a more customer-centric business model, we will also be highly accountable for delivering value from our initiatives. With that, I will return the call back to Peter.

Thank you, Torkel. Please turn to slide 15, and I will discuss the results for the Technology segment on behalf of Jim Seward. First quarter EBITDA of $73 million reflected stable catalyst volumes and lower licensing revenue. In the second quarter, we expect that licensing revenue and catalyst volumes will be moderately better. Nonetheless, we estimate that second quarter Technology segment results will be similar to the first quarter.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will begin the question and answer session. Our first question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please go ahead with your question.

Yes. Thank you. This FID that you're targeting at the end of the year for the MoReTec technology, is it fair to assume that you're thinking about building this at the refinery site, given you have all these hydrotreaters available that could be used to treat the pyrolysis oil, you could also use the hydrotreaters to make your own renewable feedstock rather than buying it from Neste and you need a lot of hydrogen to do all this. Could this site become a hydrogen hub as well and get some DOE funding.

Hi Steve, this is Peter. Thank you for your question. As always, it's a great question. The first industrial scale deployments of MoReTec that we are discussing, with a final investment decision expected by the end of this year, will take place in the Cologne hub. However, we are also considering the Houston hub, particularly in relation to a refinery where we plan to invest in deploying our MoReTec technology. To be clear, the initial deployment will be in Cologne. As you mentioned, if we proceed with a MoReTec investment in Houston, we can utilize the hydrotreaters and hydro-crackers available there to upgrade plastic oil and subsequently transport it through the pipeline to our Channelview cracker. This creates an optimal scenario for us. Our current focus is centered around advancing our MoReTec recycling technology.

Thanks very much. What are the total cash costs for shutting down the refinery and remediating whatever needs to be remediated if there is something?

Hey, Jeff, it's Michael. Let me clarify that for you. I would point you to an 8-K we released last year. We expect a number of charges related to the current operating lease assets, which include tanks and other infrastructure. There will be asset decommissioning costs, such as tank cleaning, personnel-related expenses, and some miscellaneous charges. Our total cost estimate remains approximately $600 million to $900 million. It's unlikely that these costs will be recognized all at once, as we have been incurring both cash and mostly non-cash costs this year, which will continue into 2024. Currently, we are seeing quarterly charges of about $85 million, similar to what we experienced in 2023. In the fourth quarter, we slightly increased our estimate for asset decommissioning costs, and you may have noticed some additional depreciation associated with that. This is still within our overall estimate of $1.4 billion for the year. Additionally, remember that there will be a significant release of working capital when we close the refinery, which we expect to be around $700 million.

Hey, good morning, everyone. It's a nice start to the year. Regarding fundamental polyethylene demand, what do you think our current position is in the first quarter as we move into the second quarter, and how do you anticipate this will perform in the second half of the year?

Yeah, Mike, I'm going to give that to Ken to answer that question. The first thing that I want to say is, our sales teams as well as the operations team, they have done an excellent job in navigating very well both in polyethylene as well as in polypropylene through challenging market environments. And the result is, of course, what you see then on the EBITDA in Q1. Ken?

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. We're seeing modest improvements from Q4. Q4 being very low, and we saw a lot of destocking, especially in Europe in the fourth quarter. So I'd say overall demand is going to modestly improve going into Q2. We typically see some seasonal improvement. We have begun to see some improvement in China. The consumer is sort of waking up there. So my expectation is that as we get into the second half of the year, that's probably going to be the biggest opportunity for improvement in the market is how quickly China comes back. I don't think in Europe and in the US, you're going to see anything different than the normal kind of Q2, Q3 peak and then a decline in Q4, which is normal for those markets. But we should see Asia performing stronger in the second half.

And I'll hold that in the context, of course, if you just look at Eurozone GDP first quarter, that was practically no growth, okay, not a deep recession, but on the other hand side, I mean, 0.1% growth. And needless to say, as you hear it all over the place is that this is especially in durable goods that the market continues to see very conservative consumer behavior.

Good morning. I wanted to understand your PO business, particularly regarding the new plant you're starting. Can you share what the rest of your fleet is operating at? Additionally, what does the PO sector need to improve? Is it a matter of industry shutdowns, or do we just need business to return to normal levels for profitability per unit to recover to where it was about one to one and a half years ago? What is your outlook for the remainder of the year?

Thank you, Duffy. That's a very good question. I want to emphasize what a huge success it is to start up the PO/TBA plants. It's the largest in the entire industry, completed on time and safely, and it's now ramping up to demonstrate maximum capacity. Honestly, it's incredible. Comparing this to my past experiences with other companies, I've never seen such a smooth operation. The entire team has done a fantastic job, which gives Kim some time to address your question.

Regarding the business environment, I believe it's quite similar to what Ken and Peter mentioned about durable demand. The primary outlets for propylene oxide are polyurethanes used in insulation, furniture, construction, paints, and coatings. Until we see an improvement in housing, demand is likely to remain weak. The key factor is the impact of interest rates on housing demand, not only in the US but also considering the challenges in Asia's construction and real estate markets. Looking ahead, we have some optimism, but it heavily depends on interest rate developments. In response to your other question about industry consolidation, we would certainly welcome consolidation of lower-performing assets globally, but those decisions are up to each manufacturer as they evaluate their portfolios.

Yes. Hi. Thanks. I wanted to follow up on one of the earlier questions on demand and specifically around China in terms of what you're seeing in terms of on-the-ground demand and inventories for polyethylene and polypropylene. And you made a comment on, I mean, your prepared remarks around delays in polyethylene capacity in North America being helpful. I mean, at least on paper, there's capacity coming out in China at meaningful scale. Is there anything you could comment on there that's going perhaps per plant slower or faster than you expected? Thanks.

Yes. Thanks for the question, Josh. No, there's nothing that we see really meaningfully different in terms of the developments around China capacity additions. They seem to be coming on about the way that we had expected. So really nothing new there. But again, what we're starting to see is consumption is improving, converters, and downstream customers are being a little bit more careful. They're not wanting to build inventory. So that's part of what we see in terms of, I'd say, the slow ramp-up. They're being very risk-averse, but the demand is beginning to come back a little bit as far as consumer goods. To the point that Peter made earlier, durables are less strong in terms of the recovery, but we still see good demand in food packaging and those sorts of markets.

Thank you. Peter, can you talk to the strength of the oxyfuels margins and how sustainable it might be beyond the seasonally stronger period we're about to enter?

Yes. Thank you, David. Good question. We continue to believe, I mean, that the oxyfuels markets, if you look at it compared to the history, will continue to be strong. Maybe a little bit. But I will give it to you Kim, to elaborate a little bit more.

Thank you, Peter. When considering the primary factors that influence the profitability of oxyfuels, we should focus on feedstock costs. This includes comparing butane costs to crude prices and evaluating methanol costs, which are currently advantageous in the U.S. due to low natural gas prices. The relationship between low gas prices and crude prices becomes more favorable as crude prices rise. A key concern is the impact of new capacity entering the market and its effect on the oxyfuel ether premium. However, we are confident in our ability to manage the supply of this material. We anticipate some seasonal changes in margins as we enter the third and fourth quarters with rising butane prices, but we do not have any concerns or unaccounted plans within our portfolio.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm wondering if you can give us a bit of a bridge in EAI from 1Q into 2Q and a couple of questions within that. One would just be on the energy cost position of the plant footprint. I know you said it was $90 million better versus 4Q. Does that improve any further into the second quarter? And then also, you commented in the release about in the first quarter, I believe it was 70% naphtha as a feedstock. What was the reason why you were so rich in naphtha versus LPG? And what would you anticipate for the second quarter?

I'll take that one, Vincent. Thanks for the question. In the fourth quarter, we had our French cracker down, which impacted our energy and feedstock mix. Interestingly, in the first quarter, propane was included in the feedstock mix, which is unusual for winter months when propane typically isn’t used. We have a lot of flexibility with that cracker in France, so as we ramped it up, we started to optimize our portfolio throughout the quarter. You'll notice more impact from the full quarter effect of having the bar cracker operational in the second quarter, though I'd consider it marginal. We maintain a strong cost position regarding energy costs in France, so I don't expect significant differences between the second and first quarters, apart from the improving gas prices in Europe.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Ken, ethane prices have fallen quite a bit, can you provide color on your outlook for feedstock costs for the rest of the year? And also, now that we're at the end of the month, where do you expect North American polyethylene prices to settle in April?

Sure, Matthew. We are in a strong position with a favorable feedstock advantage in North America, and the oil and gas ratio remains robust. We anticipate this trend to continue. We've observed positive production increases in NGLs across North America. Ethane and propane inventories are at elevated levels, and production is ongoing, which leads me to expect sustained strength for North America's advantage in the midterm. As mentioned in our prepared statement, delays in production related to the upcoming North American capacity should continue to support polyethylene pricing. We have announced price increases and are optimistic about securing those.

Yes, good morning. Just to follow up on the prior question. Can you comment on the demand side of polyethylene? Do you think that destocking has run its course at this point? And if so, would you anticipate any restocking in coming months? And then with regard to the new supply that's coming domestically, it seems that, as you alluded to, there's either delays or we've also heard that some units are having trouble running on specs sustainably. So welcome any color you have along those lines for the market or individual grades of resin?

Yes. Sure. So listen, I'll just continue. Nothing really more to add. We are seeing tightness in some market segments more than others, which is things like high-density polyethylene. You've probably heard the issues around some of the tightness in the markets there. We expect that's going to continue, but not a lot really to add. These things are a little bit hard to predict. And exports, like we had mentioned earlier, did creep up in March, and that's always going to be one of the key factors in terms of new capacity coming on with the feedstock advantage that we have here, a lot of that new capacity is going to go offshore. And we're not faced with any of the supply chain issues like what we were seeing in the early fourth quarter; those issues are gone. So the ability to move product offshore is going to help sort of evacuate that volume fairly quickly.

Ken, we think destocking is largely done, but folks are buying cautiously, right?

Thank you for taking my question. I'm curious about your outlook for this year and possibly next year. We appreciate the $10 billion target for 2027. Looking at the rest of this year, you achieved $1.5 billion in EBITDA for Q1, which is slightly better, but you're still mentioning weak demand. I'm assuming there might be some improvement as we approach the middle of the year, which could lead to around $6 billion. Next year, with the refinery outage, you might face a $1 billion loss. Can you confirm if my understanding of Lyondell is accurate, and how do you plan to address that $1 billion gap for next year? Thank you.

Hi, Arun, thank you for your question. While I can't provide yearly guidance, I want to highlight that we see some minor changes in China, but nothing significant. This will be crucial to observe, especially if, and it's a significant if, we see substantial demand growth in China during the second half of this year. Additionally, we anticipate that energy costs will remain relatively modest, which is a considerable advantage in the United States. Although energy costs in Europe have decreased, we are still aware of their high prices. From our current perspective, it seems unlikely that energy costs in Europe will return to the levels we experienced at the end of 2022, when gas prices were over €130 to €140 per megawatt hour. China remains a major uncertainty, as well as the impact of inflation on consumer behavior in both Europe and the United States.

So to put a bow around that, Peter, we think the second half should be better than the first half. That's broadly in line with what the analyst community is thinking as well. But as you said, China is the linchpin and uncertainty generally is high right now.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. On natural gas, I think you've given sensitivity that every dollar per MMBtu is about $175 million of op costs. Did you realize all those benefits in Q1 from both lower US as well as lower European gas prices? And I guess, should we expect any sort of incremental benefit heading into Q2?

Sure. I'm glad to address that question. We've received some feedback indicating that our previous guideline wasn't well received. So, I'll share more data this morning, which I hope will be useful. As you are aware, energy prices rose significantly last year in both Europe and the US. When comparing energy costs from last year to 2021, we saw an increase of approximately $1.7 billion. If we compare last year to 2020, the rise was about $3.3 billion. We've been dealing with considerable energy cost increases over the past couple of years. However, we began to see some relief starting in the fourth quarter, which has continued into the first quarter of this year and is still ongoing in the second quarter. In terms of overall energy costs for the fourth quarter across the enterprise, we estimated around $1 billion, and in the first quarter, this dropped by roughly $200 million. As we look ahead to Q2, we anticipate costs will remain relatively stable, with perhaps a slight adjustment for the full quarter effect. Additionally, for modeling purposes, I can provide some figures regarding the average natural gas prices we experienced in North America and Europe. In North America, the average price in the fourth quarter was about $5.30 per MMBtu, and it decreased to approximately $3.10 in the first quarter. For Europe, the fourth quarter average was $26.70, compared to $16.60 in the first quarter. I hope these figures assist you as you consider the outlook for the remainder of the year.

Good morning, Peter. I wanted to revisit a series of questions that you guys obviously got on polyethylene supply additions. I mean if I were to sort of dig deeper into the different grades of polyethylene there seem to be fairly major divergences in those capacity adds. Meaning, if I take a look at LDPE, the capacity adds are fairly tepid versus HD and LL. So how do you see that sort of playing out in the near to medium term?

Ken?

Thank you for your question, Hassan. As I mentioned earlier, we've anticipated this capacity increase for several years now, so there’s nothing particularly new to report. You’re correct that the addition of linear low and high-density capacity has been notably higher compared to low-density capacity. However, this does not alter our outlook. If we reflect on the fourth quarter, we indeed reached the low point of the cycle at that time. As market growth starts to resume, that will help absorb this additional capacity. In the coming years, we expect earnings to return to a more normalized level. So, there’s really nothing new to add here. These developments occur, and we just need to navigate them in the marketplace.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our time allowed for questions. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Vanacker for any final comments.

Thank you very much, everybody. As usual, excellent questions, very thoughtful questions. We, of course, look forward to sharing our progress in delivering LyondellBasell strategy and unlocking additional value over the coming months. I wish you all a great weekend, and as usual, stay safe. Thank you.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.