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NIQ Global Intelligence plc Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

NIQ Global Intelligence plc (NIQ)

Earnings Call FY2025 Q4 Call date: 2026-02-27 Concluded

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Operator

Good morning, and welcome to NIQ's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. I would like to turn the call over to Will Lyons, Head of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

William Lyons Head of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to NIQ's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. Joining me today are CEO, Jim Peck; CFO, Mike Burwell; and Chief Product Officer, Troy Treangen. Following Jim and Mike's prepared remarks, Jim, Mike and Troy will take your Q&A. As a reminder, our remarks today will include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause these results to differ materially are set forth in today's earnings press release. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our assumptions as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. Also, during this call, we will present both GAAP and certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is included in today's earnings press release which is available on our IR website, investors.nielseniq.com. A replay of this call will also be available on our IR site. And unless otherwise noted, growth rates mentioned on this call are versus the comparable prior year period. And with that, I'll now hand the call over to Jim.

Thank you, Will. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. 2025 was a defining year for NIQ. We entered the public markets and executed consistently against our profitable growth strategy and exceeded all key financial targets set at our IPO. 5.7% organic constant currency revenue growth, expanding adjusted EBITDA margins 320 basis points to nearly 22% generating $350 million of free cash flow in the back half and achieving free cash flow positive ahead of schedule. And we deleveraged to 3.25x EBITDA. These results demonstrate our strengthening business model and disciplined execution. For the balance of my remarks, I will address how NIQ is positioned to win in an AI world. I'll reinforce how AI strengthens NIQ in 3 ways: First, how our governed data model and domain expertise make AI work for clients. AI models require precise governed data to power high stakes decisions across the enterprise. From pricing and assortment to innovation, trade allocation and advertising. This is exactly where NIQ operates. Second, how we're using AI to drive revenue growth and product innovation more deeply embedding at the application layer to serve clients. And third, our AI delivers structural operating efficiency across our business. First, the scale, breadth and depth of our data model advantages us. We now cover $7.4 trillion in consumer spending worldwide. We aggregate consumer shopping data across offline and online sources, point-of-sale data from thousands of retailers and millions of stores across developed and emerging markets. Proprietary traditional trade data through our NIQ field network, digital commerce assets and the largest global e-receipt panel. Our Connect engine ingests, codifies, categorizes and enriches approximately 4 trillion data records per week, up from 3.1 trillion just a year ago. We generate substantial proprietary metadata across more than 240 million items and tens of millions of product attributes. This context layer is critical to client decision-making. It is continually refreshed, standardized and enriched to provide a current comparable view of consumer behavior. Beyond that, the proprietary and permission data we ingest and the intelligence we create are governed by long-standing agreements with retailers and manufacturers. These are not merely contractual arrangements. They reflect decades of trusted relationships and rigorous data stewardship. This governance framework defines how our most AI forward clients embed NIQ's decision-grade intelligence directly into their pricing, innovation and operating management systems. It also reinforces NIQ as central to responsible enterprise-ready AI deployment. We ensure client data and NIQ intelligence remain protected, permissioned and used only with explicit authorization. And as leading AI companies have acknowledged this week, domain-embedded governed systems are essential for AI to work effectively. Strict governance principles also underpin our strategic partnerships with the likes of Microsoft, Google and Snowflake integrating NIQ intelligence into enterprise AI environments. As AI moves from insight generation to operational deployment, NIQ's trusted, governed data and domain expertise provide clients a decisive advantage securely turning intelligence into mission-critical action. This has been NIQ's strength for decades. We see measurable adoption across our largest clients. Client data consumption grew more than 30% year-over-year, a leading indicator of deeper workflow embedding. More than 60% of our top 50 clients adopted at least one AI-native NIQ product, increasing platform penetration across our largest accounts. And adopters of NIQ AI products are growing their investment in NIQ 30% faster than non-adopters, demonstrating clear monetization leverage from AI integration. Put simply, increased AI adoption strengthens NIQ's role inside enterprise decision systems. Second, AI is driving meaningful revenue today and accelerating innovation across our platform. Total intelligence revenue grew 7.1% in organic constant currency in 2025, led by continued strength in EMEA and Americas. Retention and expansion remained strong with net dollar retention of 105%, gross retention of 98% and annualized subscription revenue growth of 6.6%, our seventh consecutive quarter above 6%. Several of our new capabilities are now growing at double-digit rates, reflecting strong client adoption. E-commerce is a clear example of this momentum. Revenue growth accelerated to 32% in 2025, and cross-sell penetration increased to 29% of intelligence clients, up from 19% last year. AI enabled us to expand our full view measurement capabilities, including broader Amazon coverage and new reads into a large U.S. club retailer. We ended the year with more than 190 full view measurement clients and expect continued growth in 2026. In consumer panel, we delivered strong renewals and accelerated competitive share gains in Western Europe and Latin America. In the U.S., we expanded our omni shopper panel to an industry-leading 250,000 panelists with a clear path to scale further using AI. Panel revenue grew low double digits in 2025, and we are increasing investment in 2026 to expand coverage and capture additional market share. When paired with our measurement data, our panel assets power our differentiated full view value proposition. This was central to 8-figure renewals with several multinational consumer product companies, where Full View anchors their pricing, promotion, assortment, and category growth strategies across highly competitive markets. Also, our AI-powered analytics and forward-looking capabilities position us not just as a measurement provider, but as a transformation partner as clients move toward predictive and automated decision-making. We also saw a strong performance in adjacent and high-growth markets. In new verticals, AI enabled expansion in packaging and rapid scaling of our media offerings. Along with government and financial services, these verticals delivered mid-teens growth in 2025. Finally, SMB grew at high teen rates, supported by strong retention across geographies. We continue to scale AI-driven go-to-market capabilities, including expanding an AI agent pilot to 66 markets improving targeting and future growth potential. In activation, we're seeing continued strong client adoption of our new Gen AI native offerings. BASES AI screener expanded to 209 categories and we more than doubled the client base to 36 in Q4. Client engagement increased as well with more than 1,000 innovations tested last year. BASES product developer adoption increased as well in Q4, and we cross-sold to 35 of our largest clients in 2025. This early success underscores the central role our AI platform plays in helping clients innovate and grow. While these AI solutions grow from a small base, our activation revenue was flat in 2025. This reflects varied project timing as some clients navigate an uneven landscape. However, retention is high and pipeline demand remains solid, reflecting growth potential, not displacement. In 2025, 78% of activation revenue came from clients that buy intelligence and 40% of our intelligence clients by activation, implying large cross-sell upside. In 2026, we've taken decisive action to capture this opportunity, strengthening activation leadership, sharpening go-to-market focus and embedding AI tools to improve pipeline management and conversion. Our data moat positions us at the forefront of AI innovation. For example, in 2026, we are evolving Discover into an AI-powered intelligence hub that recommends NIQ products, data, and analysis tailored to specific client needs. In January, we beta launched our Agentic AI analyst feature in Discover, enabling natural language interaction across our data sets for more than 40 client personas, including pricing, distribution, account performance and shopper analysis. As engagement and cross-selling accelerate, we are evaluating new pricing models in 2026, which include usage-based approaches and an AI innovation index that better align pricing with the value we create. So our proprietary permission data is becoming more essential. Our applications are becoming smarter, our workflow is more automated. As AI embeds into enterprise decision systems where clients have billions of dollars at stake, NIQ becomes even more mission-critical. The third benefit to NIQ is also taking shape, measurable cost efficiency. As previewed in November, we accelerated the use of advanced technologies, including AI to drive operational excellence. For example, AI-assisted automation and data operations reduce manual effort and improve quality. In Germany, Agentic AI now codes tens of thousands of products in hours instead of days, cutting data costs by nearly 70% and accelerated our product insights launch to 4 new European markets. AI tools and engineering deliver roughly a 10% productivity uplift and 25% faster time to market in pilot programs allowing us to scale output across more than 2,200 engineers without adding headcount and directly supporting margin expansion. In sales, AI enables sellers with 40% faster access to sales materials, reduced time to proposals, better pipeline management, and less administrative workload. This is increasing time spent selling and we see ample opportunity to further optimize our sales motions in 2026. In customer support, we upgraded AI search across 3,000-plus documents and expanded AI-assisted ticket resolution, cutting manual workload by 17% and improving response times and quality. While driving 81% self-serve via NIQ's service suite, and we are also continuing to deploy AI tools across finance, legal and HR to automate repeatable work. AI is driving structural cost efficiencies, underpinning our confidence in continued margin and free cash flow expansion in 2026 and beyond, which brings me to our new 2026 cost optimization program announced today, these actions signal a prominent next phase for NIQ, reflecting our commitment to leveraging AI, automation, advanced digital tools and data-driven processes to streamline operations, enhance agility and reinforce competitive advantages. While this program increases one-time investments in 2026, the result is a structurally stronger margin profile and greater free cash flow over time. As free cash flow ramps in 2026, our capital allocation philosophy remains consistent. Prioritizing deleveraging while investing for durable growth. We will also continue to pursue targeted accretive tuck-in acquisitions that advance our strategic growth priorities, complement our product roadmap and expand our geographic footprint. We will maintain our disciplined growth-oriented CapEx at 6.5% to 7% of revenue focused on panel expansion, platform enhancements and AI capabilities. Looking ahead, our 2026 strategic priorities are clear. Execute our revenue growth algorithm, advance areas of strength, invest prudently and drive the next phase of AI benefits. Mike will discuss our 2026 outlook in more detail, but highlights include a 5-plus percent organic revenue growth, meaningful adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to more than 23.5%, $235 million to $250 million of levered free cash flow. And continued deleverage towards sub-3x by the end of 2026. Intelligence growth remains durable, activation returns to growth. AI becomes increasingly embedded both in our revenue engine and our cost structure. In closing, 2025 was an inflection point. We strengthened our growth, expanded margins, generated positive free cash flow and strengthened our balance sheet and advanced our AI leadership. Before I turn the call over to Mike, I want to acknowledge Tracey Massey's decision to step down as COO for personal reasons. Over the past several years, Tracey strengthened our client-focused commercial organization and will continue to act as a trusted adviser to me and the rest of the management team. I want to thank Tracey for her contributions. I'm taking this opportunity to step further into the business, and I remain fully committed to driving its continued success. We're streamlining our operating motion as we enter 2026 with a strong unified leadership team and clear momentum. I want to thank NIQ associates worldwide for their expertise and dedication in 2025. I look forward to what we're going to achieve together in 2026. With that, I'll turn it over to Mike.

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. 2025 was a strong year with 5.7% growth, margins expanding to nearly 22% and $315 million of back half free cash flow, achieving free cash flow positively ahead of schedule. We exceeded the guidance we provided at our IPO and in November. We also strengthened our balance sheet through debt repayment and reduced leverage. Our 2026 guidance builds on this momentum, reflecting accelerated technology adoption and continued progress on growth, margins, free cash flow and deleveraging. As we dig into our Q4 results, our Q4 organic constant currency revenue grew 5.7% to $1.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA growth accelerated to 30% to $289.2 million, and we expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 410 basis points to 25.4%, driven by profitable revenue growth, GfK integration, and early AI-driven efficiencies. From a segment perspective, EMEA was our strongest performing region with intelligence driving renewals, value-based pricing, cross-sell, upsell, and continued expansion into new verticals. EMEA grew 7.5% on an organic constant currency basis. Americas grew 5.7% supported by broad-based intelligence momentum. APAC grew modestly at 1.2%, and we're optimistic about 2026 as our investments in retailer relationships and data coverage take hold. From a product perspective, total intelligence revenue grew 7.7% in organic constant currency. Annualized intelligence subscription revenue increased 6.6% marking our seventh consecutive quarter of 6%-plus growth. Our net dollar retention and gross dollar retention at 105% and 98%, respectively, underscore the durability of our revenue algorithm and the mission-criticality of our solutions. Our highly recurring activation revenue remains sticky with strong retention. While project timing remains varied, our new AI products are growing. As Jim noted earlier, we've also taken decisive actions to further improve growth in 2026. Now I'll walk you through the details of our P&L. On expenses, our Q4 total expenses were roughly flat, driven by continued cost discipline, operational efficiencies and lower restructuring costs. Operating expenses grew only 1% for the full year and were flat excluding the one-time stock-based compensation charge in Q3 related to our initial public offering. Total one-time and restructuring costs were $53 million in Q4. Full year one-time costs were $136 million, in line with our IPO guidance. Depreciation and amortization was $163 million for the quarter and $632 million for the year, approximately 14% of our revenue. The increase is primarily driven by changes in foreign currency, and to a lesser extent, higher amortization from our 2025 M&A. As I look below the operating line, Q4 GAAP interest expense was $60.7 million, driven by lower debt balances from our IPO and our 3 successful debt refinancings in the past 18 months. Our Q4 changes in foreign currency resulted in a $7.7 million gain in the period versus a $31.3 million loss last year, driven primarily by remeasurement of our debt obligations held in foreign currencies. Our Q4 income tax expense was $54.2 million or approximately 15% of adjusted EBITDA in 2025, in line with our IPO expectations. Full year 2025 net loss and adjusted net loss improved by $445 million and $211 million on a year-over-year basis, respectively, reaching positive adjusted net income of $61.9 million. As I turn to liquidity, we finished 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $518.8 million as well as $750 million of revolver capacity for $1.3 billion of total liquidity. And I'll remind everyone that Q1 is seasonally the lowest point for us from a cash flow standpoint, primarily due to the timing of certain tech vendor payments as well as variable compensation payments. Our term loans totaled USD 3.6 billion at the end of Q4. We have hedged roughly 80% and have an all-in weighted average rate of approximately 5.4% as spreads decreased during the period. Turning to free cash flow. Q4 cash provided by operating activities was $188.7 million, up more than $120 million versus 2024 from higher profitability and lower interest expense. CapEx was $262.9 million or 6.3% of revenue, down from 7.5% last year. Approximately 70% remains focused on long-term growth including consumer panels, platforms, and AI. We delivered $90.9 million of levered free cash flow in Q4 and $315 million in the back half, exceeding the top end of our guidance by $40 million, driven by strong EBITDA flow-through and improved working capital. We ended the year at 3.25 net leverage ahead of our 3.5 target. In 2026, our capital allocation philosophy remains disciplined and balanced. We continue to prioritize deleveraging while selectively reinvesting in high-return growth areas. Now turning to our guidance. For the first quarter, we expect reported revenue growth of approximately 8.6% to 8.9%. We expect organic constant currency revenue growth of approximately 4.5% to 4.8% consistent with the durable growth algorithm outlined at our IPO. Adjusted EBITDA growth of approximately 16% to 18% and applied adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.9% to 21.1% approximately 150 basis points on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.08 to $0.10, improving from a $0.05 loss in Q1 of 2025. Turning to the full year. We expect reported revenue growth of approximately 5.7% to 6%. We expect organic constant currency revenue growth of approximately 5% to 5.3%. Adjusted EBITDA growth of 14% to 16%, driven by operating leverage. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.5% to 23.8%, approximately 200 basis points of year-over-year expansion at the midpoint, ahead of our IPO guidance. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.95 to $0.99, up from $0.23 in 2025. Levered free cash flow of approximately $235 million to $250 million, also ahead of our IPO target and net leverage tracking to below 3x by the year-end. To further support modeling assumptions, we expect depreciation and amortization of $614 million to $619 million or approximately 14% of revenue. GAAP net interest expense of $230 million to $235 million, down from $317.6 million in 2025. As a reminder, GAAP net interest expense includes interest on our term loans and other obligations as well as amortization of debt issuance costs and the discount on our debt. Income tax expense of $165 million to $170 million or roughly 16% of adjusted EBITDA, diluted share count of approximately 300 million, consistent with our IPO assumptions. CapEx of approximately 6.5% to 7% of revenue. Lastly, some comments on the 2026 cost optimization program. We exceeded expectations at the IPO and are launching this program from a position of strength. It is incremental to the restructuring actions outlined at the IPO, accelerates progress towards our midterm targets and increases free cash flow capacity beginning in 2027. We've already begun executing organizational changes to reduce complexity and improve agility and efficiency. We expect $55 million to $65 million of annual run rate cost savings versus our 2025 expense base, with the majority realized within 1 year. The program is self-funded with total costs of $50 million to $60 million, largely cash. Actions are front-half-weighted in 2026 with margin and free cash flow benefits building through the back half and into 2027. For transparency, costs were reported in a separate 2026 program expense line with certain costs excluded from adjusted results consistent with prior restructuring actions. Based on this program, we continue to see additional efficiency opportunities. The capacity created enables selective reinvestment in strategic priorities while continuing to expand adjusted EBITDA margins and free cash flow. In conclusion, we are pleased with our performance and confident in our 2026 outlook. With that, operator, ready to open the call for Q&A.

Operator

And your first question comes from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

Speaker 4

Jim, I just wanted to touch on the data problems question basically. I think you used the word governed data, Thomson Reuters CEO earlier this week used the word fiduciary data. So I just wondered if you can double click on the importance of that. And also, you talked about the relationship with the retailers and manufacturers. Just how I guess the question we get is, could those clients give their data to new competitors basically.

Yes. Manav, regarding the terms governed or fiduciary data, it’s often underestimated how crucial these concepts are. We maintain relationships with tens of thousands of providers, including various retailers, which have developed over time. These providers are cautious about sharing their data because they want to protect themselves. We have advanced methods to understand their concerns related to data entitlement and governance, and we implement these across all the regions we operate in. Building this layer of trusted governed intelligence has taken considerable time, both technically and in terms of relationship-building, making it difficult for others to replicate quickly. This was highlighted recently by several AI companies, who recognize that having a domain-specific understanding—meaning truly grasping the needs of clients—is vital for AI to function effectively. This is what we excel at. We comprehend our clients along with the concerns of those who provide the data, ensuring access to information is managed properly within our clients' workflows. We deliver insights directly into those workflows, becoming deeply integrated into their processes. We can discuss this in more detail if you'd like, and our Chief Product Officer is available to elaborate on how we handle information and deliver it to clients, or I can pause for another question.

Speaker 4

Yes, I think that's fine. I’ll leave that for someone else to follow up on. However, I wanted to ask about the examples you provided regarding how AI is benefiting your revenue pipeline. What are the pros and cons of this? Many inquiries focus on the potential deflationary pressure from the proliferation of AI technology. Could you also remind us of your current pricing strategies and how they may influence the future?

Sure. Based on our net dollar retention data and overall growth, it's clear that we're not facing any pricing pressure, particularly in relation to AI. You may be inquiring about how AI influences our revenue. AI has been a core part of our offerings for many years, supporting our revenue streams and contributing to customer retention, cross-selling, and upselling. In the short term, we are focusing on areas that show financial impact, which is actually aiding in our margin expansion. We are also working to establish more distinct revenue lines. Overall, we are not experiencing any revenue compression related to this.

And Manav, I would just add to Jim's comments. When you look back at our net dollar retention at 105 and our gross dollar retention at 98%, and our subscription growth continues, it's been about 6% for the last 7 quarters. I guess to me, Manav, I guess I just point to that fact in terms of what that means from a pricing standpoint.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Alexander Hess with JPMorgan.

Speaker 5

Jim, Mike, I want to start with the 30% call out in the prepared remarks on data consumption increases. Maybe you could walk us through how you define that, what's included in that and what that says about the state of your business today just as a starting point?

Yes. So I think you're asking for a particular formula on how we're...

Speaker 5

I'm wondering what the 30% figure indicates about the state of your business and the demand you're experiencing, especially considering the current discussions around AI and the fact that you're relatively new to being public. What does that number really signify?

Yes. What it's indicating is that as the world continues to progress at its current pace, the demand for our data is increasing. This includes not only our data but also our insights and the way we deliver them to clients and integrate into their workflows. There is no demand issue. I'm eager to have Troy share his perspective on this. Troy, we can't hear you.

Speaker 6

What it's telling us is that as the world continues to move forward at the rate it's moving forward, the demand for our data is just increasing. It's not just our data; it's our insights and how we're delivering it to our clients and embedding ourselves in their workflows. So there's not some kind of demand problem. I'm anxious to get Troy a little bit involved in this conversation. Troy, why don't you share your view? Troy, we can't hear you.

I think we're having some technical issues there with Troy.

Speaker 5

That's all right. But maybe you can also, as we look into '26, touch on what signals you are seeing in the market that indicate now is the right time for an incremental restructuring program. You've mentioned what this will mean for your financials, but operationally, what should investors watch for to see that this is a high ROI project?

Yes. So regarding the restructuring, it's something we've been pursuing internally to become more efficient. We experienced a significant advancement in using AI internally that we didn't anticipate at the beginning of last year. We didn't realize how quickly we would achieve that. The funds allocated for restructuring are primarily for severance and reducing our workforce to enhance efficiency. This investment pays off within the year, making it an easy decision with a clear return on investment. I would make this decision every time, and I would do it again because we are seeing solid returns this year.

Speaker 5

It seems that overall, you are experiencing benefits from AI both in terms of increased demand and on the cost side through improved efficiency. That appears quite clear to me. If I may quickly follow up on those two questions, is there anything you believe the market currently doesn't understand? There's been a narrative about data companies being disadvantaged in the AI landscape, as Manav mentioned. Is there anything else you would like the market to know regarding your positioning as we approach 2026?

I believe I've covered everything in my notes, but I want to emphasize that we feel confident about our approach to AI, particularly regarding the current discussions in the industry. I don't want to rephrase it myself, so I'll share what the leaders of the LLM companies have expressed. They recognize that systems that are domain-enabled and governed are crucial for AI to function effectively. Being domain-enabled means we have a deep understanding of our customers' operations. Our data is not just extracted arbitrarily; it is integrated into their workflows. Customers can trust that they are using data that is permissible for its intended use and that it is accurate. This is vital for any analytics, including AI, to be effective. We believe we are in a favorable position with the right data, the capabilities to leverage it, and the assurance that the data is properly protected and governed. This ensures that nothing is done improperly with it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kevin McVeigh with UBS.

Speaker 7

Congratulations on the results. You had a comment on kind of clients shifting from insight to operational deployment. Is that shifting the workflow or consumption in terms of how they're using the NIQ data. It's just pretty interesting because obviously, you're seeing accelerated adoption. But just anything from a behavioral perspective is you're shifting from insight to deployment.

Yes. So the way I look at it, we're working with our biggest clients. We actually call them builders of AI, right, because they're not just users, they're going to build things internally. And we are working with them to even more deeply penetrate our data into their workflows and helping them understand how our data can even unlock more value. And I should really say our data and analytics, unlocking more value across their whole set of operations so connecting their innovation to their supply chains, to their pricing. It's just embedding us more deeply into their workflows. And that's what we're seeing.

Speaker 7

That's really helpful. I have a quick question for Mike about the restructuring and the cash flow aspect. The free cash flow guidance would have been significantly stronger if it weren't for the $55 million to $65 million adjustment. If you factor that in, the projection would have been around $290 million to $310 million.

Yes, that's correct, Kevin. This includes that aspect. As Jim mentioned, we are focusing on the one-year return. Therefore, you will observe that additional cash flow growth continuing into 2027 and beyond.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.

Speaker 8

Great. So just thinking about the org rev guide, maybe any commentary you can give in terms of how to think about performance by region, generally in line with '25, should we think maybe North America catches up a little bit relative to EMEA, even just on comps. But yes, any way you can kind of disaggregate that and give any thoughts would be helpful.

Sure. So Curt, look, we don't give guidance specifically related to it. I know you're trying to get some indication of it. I think the trends that you're seeing I think makes sense as it relates to North America and EMEA. We're continuing to make investments as Jim and I both mentioned as it relates to APAC in terms of our coverage that we would look to continue to see progress moving in that direction. But I think if you kind of look at those trend lines that you've seen in each of those regions, I think those are pretty good views as we're really guiding overall in terms of thinking about it.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then maybe just a very quick follow-up on the restructuring. Just in terms of, I guess, the flow through, right, from your restructuring actions, what should we expect in terms of realization, right, in '26? I know you'll be at a $60 million run rate by the end of the year. But yes, anything more you could talk to the actual flow through kind of as the year progresses?

Sure. When we examined the restructuring, we indicated that we expect about a 200 basis points improvement in our margins from 2025 to 2026. This translates to approximately $80 million above our initial public offering model and $50 million above the most recent consensus. About 140 basis points of this improvement will come from the restructuring actions, with the remainder attributed to our ongoing operational performance. The revenue increase has largely been influenced by foreign exchange, which does not always translate directly. We strive to provide guidance that we are confident in achieving, and our history reflects our commitment to a pattern of exceeding expectations. I hope this answers your question, Curt.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

Speaker 9

I just wanted to focus on the full view measurement. You talked about some really good significant progress there with 190 clients. Can you talk about the pipeline, also initial feedback from the clients that have already adopted but also a pipeline for that product going forward?

The full view measure describes how we analyze customer shopping behavior across all channels. A key element of this is our detailed Amazon data, which is unmatched by competitors, alongside our omni shopper panel and demographic data combined with other e-commerce panel information. This allows us to provide clients with a comprehensive understanding of consumer shopping behavior, which is essential for them to see market trends at a granular level. Clients want insights not only on what products are selling, such as spaghetti sauce, but also on the reasons behind those sales and the target demographics. We can delve deeply into these details and compare them with market trends to help clients identify new competition, pricing challenges, or promotional issues. This capability has been increasingly invaluable for both manufacturers and retailers, resulting in additional revenue for us and underscoring the strong demand for detailed data among our clients. I appreciate your patience while I explained that. Troy, do you have anything to add?

Speaker 6

I want to add just one thing about full view measurement. It is not limited to the U.S.; it is a global product strategy. We combine retail measurement data with consumer behavior data from our panels, including E-receipt data and other alternative methods, to identify who buys, where they shop, and what behavior shifts occur. In line with Jim's earlier comments, we provide clients with very detailed signals to help them activate in response to these consumer shifts. Our objective is clear. Currently, we have around 190 clients, and our pipeline is strong. As I mentioned, this is not limited to the U.S.; we are working in many markets worldwide to integrate all these assets to provide a comprehensive view.

Speaker 9

That's great color. And maybe just as a follow-up on the activation side. You talked about some impact from the project timing and the pipeline obviously continues to remain really strong. Can you talk about how we should think about the activation trends in '26?

Sure. Last year, our clients were figuring out their spending strategies, and we have a diverse range of activation solutions to offer. While we can manage our execution and market approach, we're sometimes reliant on our clients for data and expected outcomes, which can lead to some uncertainty in their spending decisions. However, the current pipeline is robust, and we have clear visibility into the demand. We've taken steps to strengthen our leadership and go-to-market strategy as we move into 2026. We are leveraging AI to enhance our processes and increase our execution speed, all of which we can control and impacts our revenue. So, to address your main question, the demand is strong, and we are optimistic about the direction of the business going forward.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kyle Peterson with Needham & Company.

Speaker 10

Great. I wanted to start out on panels business. It seems like that remains a real bright spot for you guys. So just any more color there on what has driven kind of that sustained outperformance? And do you think there's still a good amount of runway there where it can be growing faster than the rest of the business? Just any more context there would be really helpful.

Yes. So our panel business is global. And so it's global and local at the same time, right? So we're addressing many different countries, but it is a country-by-country build of our consumer panel. What we have that no one else really has is the market data or the RMS data integrated with the panel data. And as Troy just described, we can tell what's going on broadly in the market, and then we can deep dive down into specifically what's causing that to happen by understanding the actual people who are doing the buying, right, because that's our consumer panel. So last year, we've integrated those things into our Discover platform. And that's what's driving the demand. So it's exactly what our customers have said they've always wanted, and we put it in place and now we're just reaping the benefits of that.

Speaker 10

Great. That's really helpful. I wanted to follow up on the APAC region. I know the growth there has been a bit slow. How should we think about a return to growth that aligns more closely with the Americas and EMEA? What initiatives need to happen, or what macro impacts should we consider? How can we envision the path back to perhaps mid-single-digit growth in that region?

Yes. First of all, our guidance does not account for a significant rebound; instead, we anticipate a more gradual recovery. It's important to highlight that we have mitigated that risk in our planning. Additionally, the APAC region is not uniform; it consists of various countries and cultures that we cater to. India and China remain substantial opportunities for us. Our strategy is to consistently enhance our presence in each of these markets and engage effectively.

Speaker 6

Quick commerce.

I keep calling quick marketing. But quick commerce that's happening especially in India, but also in China. And so we've had to just make some more, I think, we changed the leadership. I mean just like we do anywhere else, we had to steadily go and create relationships with the right companies and show them we're adding value and increasing our coverage. And so I think just by doing that, you're going to see a nice pick up. And we're not doing this in a vacuum. We're doing this with our clients big and small in the region, we're saying this is what we need to do better business ourselves in China or to do better business ourselves in India or Korea or Vietnam. And I think I would say that we were just a little behind where we were in some of the other countries, getting our coverage and even our analytics capabilities on top of that where they need to be. But we have a very clear plan right now, we're executing it.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Nicholas with William Blair.

Speaker 11

I wanted to hone in on guidance a little bit further. I think OCC growth expectations, 5%, 5.3% obviously encouraging and a good number. But looking at intelligence, it looks like the annualized intelligence subscription revenue has been growing 6% to 7%. And so I'm just wondering if I hear you on the activation front and the project timing and the pipeline. But is it fair for us to think about activations acceleration or recovery being incremental to the current outlook? Or just kind of how we should think about conservatism from that light because intelligence has been really, really strong over the past couple of quarters.

Yes. I will speak generally about our guidance approach. Those of you who know me understand that we guide to what we feel very certain of. Some may consider it conservative, but that has been the pattern you’ve observed from me and the company. This same philosophy is what we carry into this year. I wouldn't point to any specific factor as being incremental to our guidance. My overall approach is to do what we say we will do. We are certainly motivated by higher numbers, including activation numbers that may not be fully reflected in our guidance. However, what we are guiding to is what we are comfortable with.

Speaker 11

Makes sense. And then for my second question, just hoping you could kind of help us frame the growth of GfK in 2025. It's been a part of your business since acquiring it in '23 that has consistently accelerated year-to-year. Can you talk about how '25 kind of wrapped up and holistically, how you're thinking about that over the next couple of years?

Sure. So GfK, as you know, way back when, this is a long time ago. We had quite a bit of a period where we were under examination from the European Union. And so they came out of the gates pretty weak in '23, '24. We got them back to good growth in '25. And we're planning on seeing the same kind of performance in '26. So good contribution, good customer demand, same kind of customer demand that you have in tech and durables that you have in the CPG client base. There is an interesting demand there for some of our activation tools, which these clients have never had access to. And so we're kind of working on that and ramping that up as well.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jason Haas with Wells Fargo.

Speaker 12

I'm curious if you're seeing a trend of clients maybe still buying your data but consuming it more through their own tools or third-party tools. And then I'm curious your philosophy on where you're putting your incremental investment dollars. Are you still planning to invest heavily on the activation side to improve those analytical tools? Or does it make sense to really focus more on the data side and building out those proprietary data sets.

Yes. So I started to think about your second part of your question before I lost the first part. Can you repeat the first part again?

Speaker 12

Yes, they are somewhat tied together, but I'm curious if you're seeing a trend of clients consuming the data more through...

We have a group of clients that I like to think of as builders. They have the necessary capital to work on integrating various parts of their operations, and we support them as they collaborate with different providers for back-end data integration. We're noticing that they are requesting our assistance in understanding how to integrate and better utilize our data as they connect everything. For instance, they may come up with an innovative idea but haven't realized that their supply chain is capable of producing it. This is just one example of how we are becoming more involved in their processes, helping to connect those aspects so they can bring products to market faster. We're learning alongside them and building relationships with the companies they rely on for data integration and AI. We're deeply embedded in their ecosystem and this experience not only benefits them but also helps us understand how to assist mid-sized companies that may struggle to afford such resources, enabling them to use our Discover platform more effectively. We are actively integrating our AI capabilities into Discover as we speak.

Speaker 12

I believe you addressed it quite well. Is there any indication that your clients are increasingly utilizing some of these third-party tools to analyze their data? Has this trend been developing?

No, they prefer working with one provider who understands them. When they utilize alternative providers, it's typically for services we don't offer. However, they often require our assistance because the data is quite complex, and grasping its context is crucial. This aligns with what the LLM experts stated: without understanding the data and its context, our AIs won’t function properly. We require partners like Nielsen IQ and others to ensure effective AI performance. Therefore, we are not seeing a retreat from our services; in fact, we are experiencing an increase in inquiries for our support.

Speaker 12

Okay. That's great to hear. And if I could add a follow-up question. I'm just curious on how you think about the pace of organic growth through the year because the guidance seems to imply a softer start and then an acceleration through the year. So can you just talk about what drives that acceleration?

Yes. Mike, do you want to take that one?

Sure. So Jason, we said from a guidance standpoint, as Jim said, we want to make sure we know exactly what's happening. What we see is we get a lot of our renewals that are done in the first quarter. And then we have greater visibility to those through the rest of the year. So that's what you see is a little bit lower number in our guide in Q1 and then really you're seeing accelerate over the second half of the year.

Operator

That's all the time we have for questions today. I will now turn it back over to Jim for closing comments.

Yes. Okay. So thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We're excited about our progress and looking forward to another good run in 2026. And I'd just like to thank our clients, everyone who works with us and our investors, and we look forward to seeing you again in May. Bye-bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.