Nrg Energy, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to NRG Energies, Inc., fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. This time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. When you hear an automated message, it will advise that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the call over to your first speaker today, Brendan Mulhern, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning and welcome to NRG Energy's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. This morning's call is being broadcast live, over the phone, and via webcast. The webcast, presentation, and earnings release can be located in the investor section of our website at www.nrg.com under presentations and webcasts. Please note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements which are based upon assumptions that we believe to be reasonable as of this date. Actual results may differ materially. We urge everyone to review the safe harbor in today's presentation as well as the risk factors in our SEC filings. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of future events except as required by law. In In addition, we will refer to both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. For information regarding our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to today's presentation and earnings release. With that, I will now turn the call over to Larry Coben, NRG's Chair and Chief Executive

Thank you, Brendan, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined today by Bruce Chung, our CFO, and Rob Gaudet, our President. Other members of our management team are also on the line and available to answer questions. Let's begin with the key messages on slide four. We exceeded the midpoint of our raised 2025 guidance, marking the third consecutive year we increased our outlook and delivered above it. We introduced standalone 2026 guidance in November, updated it in February to reflect 11 months of LS Power ownership, and today we are reaffirming those ranges. We successfully closed LS Power at the end of January. Integration is well underway, and performance is already exceeding our underwriting assumptions. With LS Power now closed, we are rolling forward our long-term outlook. We continue to target at least 14% annual growth in adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow before growth per share, now measured from 2026 through 2030, rather than the previous through 2029. We are maintaining this more than 14% trajectory, despite a much higher share price than assumed at the original announcement. This is achieved through higher earnings from both the LS Power portfolio and our legacy businesses. Finally, as demand accelerates across our markets, affordability and reliability will define long-term success. New large loads must bring their own power and contract for the generation that supports them. Flexible demand response must scale alongside that. Otherwise, prices will rise and volatility will increase. NRG is well positioned to do both and thus meet rising demand across our markets. Let's turn to slide five, our 2025 financial and business results. 2025 was a record year of performance at NRG. Full-year adjusted EPS was $8.24 per share, and adjusted EBITDA was $4.087, both above the high end of our raised guidance. Free cash flow before growth totaled $2.210 billion, or $11.63 per share, above the midpoint of our revised outlook. Turning to our 2025 scoreboard, we delivered against the priorities we outlined at the start of that year. We achieved top decile safety performance for the 10th consecutive year and delivered our 2025 target under our $750 million organic growth plan. We signed 445 megawatts of long-term data center PPAs at attractive margins. We secured Texas Energy Fund loans for 1.5 gigawatts of new capacity with all construction on budget and on schedule. We launched our Texas residential VPP and finished the year at nearly 10 times our original objective. We also announced the LS Power transaction, which we'll cover in more detail on the next slide. In 2025, we returned $1.6 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends, while increasing the dividend by 8% for the sixth consecutive year. Our momentum has carried forward into 2026. During winter storm fern, our Texas fleet achieved 97% in the money availability. Our assets were ready when the grid needed them. That performance reflects investments we have made in the plants in recent years and great work by our amazing people. Turning to slide 6, beyond 2025 performance, we strengthened our competitive position with the close of the LS Power portfolio. Our generation fleet has doubled to 25 gigawatts. We added 18 natural gas assets, primarily in PJM, with additional positions in ERCOT, NISO, and ISO New England. The combined fleet is now more than 75% natural gas. Together with our existing generation and projects under development, we are naturally long against our residential load in our core markets. In PJM, several of the newly acquired peaking units provide a potential one gigawatt of upgrades through conversion to combined cycle configuration. That adds flexibility to support future large load demand. CPower, a preeminent company in the demand response space, strengthens our capabilities and expands our position in this sector with both commercial and industrial customers. This transaction was immediately accretive, supports our long-term leverage targets, and strengthens our credit profile. performance is already exceeding our underwriting assumptions driven by stronger capacity and energy prices in addition 100 bonus depreciation enhances after-tax returns relative to our original modeling we have expanded our earnings base and strengthened our competitive position as markets tighten. Turning to slide seven, let's discuss our near and long-term outlook. Beginning with 2026, we are reaffirming the guidance ranges introduced in early February following the close of LS Power. Recall that the LS contribution reflects 11 months of ownership, not a full year. In 2026, we will deliver these results embedded in our outlook and integrate the LS Power portfolio. We are also targeting at least one one-gigawatt-plus signed long-term data center power contract under our Bring Your Own Power approach. Turning to the longer-term framework, we are rolling forward our outlook and continue to target at least 14 percent annual growth in adjusted EPS through 2030. This extends the prior five-year framework, which ended in 2029, and reflects our expanded earnings base. Consistent with our prior methodology, the outlook assumes flat power and capacity prices across the planning horizon. Detailed assumptions and Texas and PJM price sensitivities are included in the appendix. The plan also now incorporates all three Texas Energy Fund projects rather than one. The first remains on track for June 2026 completion, and the additional two are expected online by mid-2028, and these represent incremental value relative to the prior outlook. The plan also reflects the portion of the 445 megawatts of previously announced signed data center contracts that are expected to be online during this period. I must emphasize that the outlook does not assume any additional data center contracts or higher power or capacity prices. Let me repeat that. The outlook does not assume any additional data center contracts or higher power or capacity prices. So beyond what is embedded in this plan, of course, we see significant opportunities to contract new large-load natural gas generation under long-term agreements with high-quality counterparties. We have the ability today to support more than six gigs of long-term power agreements to serve large data center demand. At that level, it represents the potential to add more than $2.5 billion of recurring annual adjusted EBITDA on contracts of up to 20 years. These projects would provide stable, contract-backed cash flows. Discussions are ongoing, so stay tuned. Turning to slide eight, I want to discuss our approach to affordability, which has two primary components. First, bring your own power. New large loads should contract directly for the generation that supports them. Data centers must pay for their required capacity additions. Cost and volatility should not be shifted to existing customers. Second, demand response. Flexible demand is an essential complement to our approach. Demand response, including virtual power plants, provides dispatchable capacity when the system is tight. It lowers peak costs and strengthens reliability without adding structural costs to the system. We are executing on this model today. We have more than 6 gigs of natural gas generation capacity reserved for customer-backed large load projects, including 5.4 gigs through our GEV and Kiewit venture and one gig of uprate potential within the recently acquired LS portfolio. We are also developing new generation through the Texas Energy Fund to support grid reliability. On the residential side, we are building a one gig virtual power plant in Texas and preparing to extend that model into PJM. On the commercial and industrial side, C-Power now anchors one of the leading demand response platforms in the country. We built all of these platforms early in anticipation of where markets were heading and what politicians and customers are now saying. It is operating today. As demand expands, this model supports significant growth without compromising affordability or reliability. With that, let me turn it over to Bruce for the financial review.

Thank you, Larry. Starting with slide 10, I am pleased to share that NRG delivered exceptional full-year financial results in 2025. We achieved earnings at or above the high ends of our raised financial guidance ranges, including record-level performance across several key metrics. Our 2025 adjusted EPS was $8.24, and adjusted EBITDA was $4.087 billion, representing an increase of 21% and 8%, respectively, over the prior year. We delivered $1.606 billion of adjusted net income and $2.21 billion of free cash flow before growth. Our robust financial performance in 2025 marks the third year in a row where excellent execution across our businesses continues to demonstrate the durability of our integrated platform. Moving on for a brief discussion of segment results. Our Texas segment delivered full-year adjusted EBITDA of $1.877 billion, driven by margin expansion and excellent commercial optimization throughout the year, as well as favorable weather that benefited our home energy volumes. The east segment contributed full year adjusted EBITDA of 981 million dollars, reflecting a slight decline from the prior year, primarily driven by higher regional retail power supply and planned maintenance costs, and the retirement of the Indian River facility. These impacts were partially offset by strong capacity revenues at our plants, winter weather driving natural gas margin expansion, and continued commercial optimization in both power and gas. Our West and Other segment provided full-year adjusted EBITDA of $137 million, a modest decline from the prior year, driven by the absence of earnings from the sale of our Airtron business in September 2024 and the lease expiration at the Cottonwood facility in May 2025. These were partially offset by higher retail power margins in the West. The smart home business generated full-year adjusted EBITDA of $1.092 billion, driven by record new customer ads and impressive retention rates, in addition to expanded net service margins. Free cash flow before growth for 2025 was $2.21 billion, exceeding 2024 results by $148 million, or 7% year-over-year growth. This year-over-year increase is primarily driven by the strong adjusted EBITDA results, lower interest payments due to the Vivint ring-fence removal, and receipt of the remaining insurance proceeds from our WA Parish Unit 8 claims. Turning to slide 11, we are reaffirming the 2026 financial guidance announced earlier this month, which includes 11 months of earnings from our recently acquired generation assets in CPOWR. Midpoints for our reaffirmed guidance ranges are as follows. Adjusted EBITDA is $5.575 billion. Adjusted net income is $1.9 billion. Adjusted EPS is $8.90 per share. And free cash flow before growth is $3.05 billion. As you can see on the waterfall charts at the bottom portion of the slide, we have made moderate adjustments to the pro forma guidance previously shared on the third quarter call. The updated adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow before growth disclosures now capture improved pricing and capacity values in addition to a pre-closing adjustment for January 2026 financial performance for the LS Power Assets. You can find more details on the energy and capacity price assumptions we use in the appendix of this presentation. Moving to slide 12 for updates to our capital allocation for 2026. Starting at the left of the waterfall and moving right, Our total cash for allocation has increased to $3.05 billion. This includes $2.1 billion from the legacy company, Free Cash Flow Before Growth Midpoint, together with $950 million representing Free Cash Flow Before Growth to be contributed by the recently acquired assets from LS Power, prorated to 11 months. As part of our ongoing commitment to a strong balance sheet, we expect to execute approximately $1 billion toward debt payments throughout the year. As part of the integration for the acquired assets, we expect to spend $123 million of one-time costs to ensure that the assets are appropriately incorporated into our operating and commercial portfolio. We remain committed to our robust return of capital program and plan to return at least $1.4 billion of capital to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and common dividends. Finally, we are allocating the remaining capital to continued investments in our core portfolio with $310 million allocated toward growth initiatives. This primarily consists of spend for a new generation built in Texas, including Texas Energy Fund proceeds and continued investment in our consumer platform. Turning to slide 13, we are reaffirming our long-term adjusted EPS and FCFBG per share CAGR of 14% plus, while also rolling forward the long-term outlook from 2029 to 2030. As described when we first disclosed the acquisition of assets from Ellis Power, we have a highly visible path to achieving more than 14% growth in our adjusted EPS and free cash flow before growth per share. Metrics over the next five years, underpinned by solid business expansion and discipline capital allocation. Starting on the left side of the page with adjusted EPS, we moved from the original 2025 midpoint of $7.25 to our 2026 updated midpoint of $8.90. This step-up reflected strong underlying business performance, contributions from the LS Power Portfolio, and the ongoing benefit of our share or purchase program. Looking ahead, we are forecasting adjusted EPS of greater than $14 per share by 2030, underpinned by existing growth programs and our core business operations, and our robust return of capital program. Shifting to the chart on the right, our free cash flow before growth is similarly increasing on a per share basis. Starting with the original 2025 guidance midpoint of $11.20, we have increase the midpoint to $14.50 for 2026. By 2030, we expect a further increase to greater than $22 per share, again delivering compounded annual growth of more than 14%. The core drivers for this per share increase are similar to those for our EPS growth and reflect the strong cash generation capabilities of our platform and a disciplined capital allocation framework. It is worth highlighting that our long-term outlook holds energy and capacity prices flat through the period. Our energy price assumptions reflect market prices at the end of December 2025, and our PGM capacity price assumptions reflect pricing at the $325 per megawatt day cap for the next two capacity auctions to be held in June and December 2026. Most importantly, this long-term outlook does not include any upside from rising power prices, new data center deals, or the one gigawatt CT to CCGT conversion opportunities we have with the acquired LS portfolio. We have provided more details on the assumptions in our long-term outlook in the appendix of the presentation. We have also provided updated power price sensitivity slides so that you can appropriately model the meaningful gearing our portfolio has to rising power prices. Wrapping up this slide, we believe our long-term outlook represents a de-risked and outsized opportunity to enjoy above-market earnings and free cash flow per share growth, while with meaningful upside levers. I look forward to updating you on our progress in achieving this long-term outlook on future earnings calls. Finally, on slide 14, we are refreshing our view of long-term capital allocation. On the left-hand side of the slide, we have updated our 2026 to 2029 view of capital allocation so that you can have an apples-to-apples comparison. Our current forecast represents an impressive 55% increase in capital available for allocation and a 32% increase in share of purchases from our original guidance in 3Q24. Furthermore, the current plan allocates 85% of cash available after debt reduction to return of capital compared to 80% in the original plan. Moving to the right side of the slide, we have rolled forward our plan to include 2030 cash available for allocation, bringing the total to $18.3 billion of total capital available through 2030. Including the additional year's earnings for 2030, we are increasing our return of capital program to a total of $13.2 billion, comprised of $11 billion in share of purchases and $2.2 billion of common dividends. This represents an increase of $5.3 billion and $800 million for share of purchases and dividends, respectively, relative to the original plan shown in the far left bar of the chart. Forecasted amounts for growth-slash-unallocated capital for the period increased modestly by $400 million, with most of that increase in the unallocated bucket. The combination of an improved earnings profile and planned debt reduction of $2.9 billion over this five-year period will ensure that we achieve our targeted credit metric of three times net debt to EBITDA. Our long-term capital allocation strategy is consistent with our long-stated principles, which prioritize a strong balance sheet and robust return of capital. The significant free cash flow we generate over this period affords a meaningful amount of flexibility to put capital to work accretively. Shared purchases will always remain a strategic component of our annual capital allocation plan. While we've shown much of the capital over the period devoted to shared purchases, we recognize that there may be other very accretive uses of that capital beyond shared purchases, particularly the development of power plants supporting data centers under contracts of up to 20 years. and we will evaluate those opportunities with discipline. But rest assured that any and all of those situations will be measured against our stated hurdle rates of 12 to 15 percent pre-tax unlevered IRR and the implied return of buying back our stock. In closing, NRG delivered record financial and operational execution through 2025, reflecting the resilience of our platform and the continued momentum across our core businesses. As we look ahead, the 2026 outlook and capital allocation priorities I have outlined highlight the durability of our strategy and our commitment to disciplined growth, prudent liability management, and long-term value creation. With the successful close of the assets acquired from LS Power, we have strengthened and expanded our portfolio. Integration is well underway, and the addition of these assets into our combined portfolio positions us well for continued growth and execution of our strategic and capital allocation priorities. With that, I'll turn it back to you, Larry. Thank you, Bruce. Let me close with our

priorities for 2026. Demand is accelerating led by data centers. Our priority is to serve that growth under a bring-your-own-power framework, securing long-term power agreements that support the new generation required to meet it. We will complete T.H. Wharton. We will integrate LS Power. We will continue building our virtual power plant platform. Execution and capital discipline remain our lodestar. We will deliver the financial results embedded in our guidance, return at least $1.4 billion to shareholders, grow the dividend consistent with our framework, and maintain balance sheet strength. As I approach the conclusion of my time as CEO, I want to thank all of our 18,000 employees for their incredible work and commitment, our customers for their trust, and our shareholders for their support. Over the past 27 months, the NRG team has reshaped the portfolio, strengthened the balance sheet, and positioned NRG to compete and keep winning in a changing power market. We enter 2026 strong, disciplined, and well-prepared for this next phase of growth. I look forward to continuing as an advisor and long-term shareholder and to watching this incredible team build on the foundation in the years ahead. This is only the beginning, and the best is yet to come. Thank you all for everything you have done. Operator, we're now ready to open the line for questions.

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. First question comes from the line of Char Parraza with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Morning, Char. How are you? All right, Larry. Big congrats to you and Rob. So terrific transition, and best of luck to both of you on your phase two. Maybe just starting off on the expectation. Wait, is Bruce still there? Wait, I totally forgot Bruce. Is Bruce still there? The CEOs are doing such a good job. We forget the CFO sometimes. But, Bruce, we still love you, I promise. And congrats on phase one. Maybe just starting off on the expectations now that the LF deal is closed, can you just expand on commercially contracting the combined portfolio comments you made? I mean, $2.5 billion in EBITDA is sizable. I just want to get a sense on timing and structure, including how we should think about which party would be taking on the gas risk in these deals or risk share passed on to the counterparties. just a little bit of a sense on the structures. Thanks.

Yeah. Look, Char, I think a little bit, obviously depending on the hyperscales, but I think we're looking at blocks in excess of a gig. I think we're looking at contracts of minimum 10 and frequently 20 years with investment-rated entities that can actually support the kind of credit required to make this happen. We're looking at a significant fixed price component in that. And so I think, you know, you can start seeing these things come on, you know, you can do the math, we've given you the margin, we've given you the capacity number, so you can kind of figure out when it comes. You know, I think the first power, you know, assuming we get to the place we need to get could be on by the end of, you know, late 29. And then, you know, rateably, probably a gig a year, maybe more for each year after that.

And then just the fuel risk, Larry, now this is a question we get from a lot of investors is,

who actually takes on the gas risk? Hey, it's Rob. The contract that we're working with and the structure that the hyperscalers seem to be okay with is a very heavy capacity payment like Larry talked about and then a variable component where it turns into basically a heat rate for the hyperscaler. They take the gas risk. If they want to offload the gas risk, I have a gas platform

where I can help them do that. Got it. Okay, perfect. And then just in terms of PJM and the regulatory process. Do you guys see FERC, PJM, directive opening opportunities, you know, for NRG to bring new generation to that market? Would you focus on, you know, the one gigawatt of up rates that you noted in the slides? Or is there opportunity beyond that, similar to what you're doing in Texas under the test? I guess, how attractive is that reserve auction? Thanks.

I mean, I think it's attractive, Char, but I think our focus in PJM, at least initially, will be the one gig of up rates. It's just faster and quicker to market, and the demand is there for Texas. If somebody were to come to us and say that they wanted it in PJM, obviously we have the flexibility to do that, but I think that we would focus in PJM on the one gig of up rates and probably the other 5.4 outside of PJM. This is perfect.

I appreciate it, guys, and Larry, big congrats, and Rob, just do me a favor as you take the spot, Just make sure you continue to work Bruce really hard like Larry did.

Thank you, Char. See you, guys.

One moment for our next question, please. The next question comes from the line of Julian Newmolan-Smith with Jeffries, LLC. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, team. Larry, Rob, congratulations. And Bruce, I swear we will never forget you. i knew that's why i like you better there we go see you later today no but with that said let me come back to a couple things right so first off on the capital allocation the 14 here just to break that down a little bit further here how much latitude do you have in that, in as much as you're not reflecting, I don't believe, the capex for the data center. I mean, presumably, you could be foregoing buybacks in a near and medium term sense to invest in a longer term sense in presumably 2030 and beyond if you start to pivot into the data center. So maybe just talk about the latitude that exists within that commitment through 2030 against the buyback numbers and how you could see that shift as you allocate capital. Again, if I understand it right, the first data center here under your targets with GV and key would be a 2029 in service anyway. So conceivably, you'd get some of those cash flows on a run rate basis in 2030. But again, obviously, as you continue to scale the strategy, you'd need to roll forward that target. So Rob, what are you doing an analyst today pro forma with all these data centers is really the other way to ask that. But I'll pass it to you guys.

Yeah, hey, Julian, just on the buyback question, you know, I mean, I think as we think about the variability in that buyback number, it's probably more on the back end as opposed to the front end. The billion that we're sort of thinking about over the next couple of years is probably pretty set in stone, frankly, from our perspective. And we see ample opportunity to be able to fund these projects while still keeping at least a billion dollar buyback program in place. So I don't think there's really any risk on that. And then it's really more about how do we think about the cash flows in the out years, particularly after we've delevered and how that can be redeployed in some of these, you know, very

potentially lucrative projects. Any sense on returns, though? Maybe that's the other backhanded way to ask this. It's like, how are you thinking about what the up rate and or new data center

counterparty in Texas would look like here? Yeah, look, I mean, we've always been very consistent about and transparent about what our hurdle rate is. It's 12% to 15% pre-tax unlevered. And every project and every dollar devoted to a project is going to be held against

that standard. Got it. Excellent. I appreciate it. And then just if I can keep going slightly me further here. As you think about this rollout of VPP, when would you expand that? I mean, it seems like you're doing very well against it. I mean, I'm curious on how you would think about the economics contributing to the story here. Just in brief. I saw the targets in the longer

term. Yeah, this is Brad speaking. I've been really pleased with our results in Texas. We

continue to scale in Texas. And then we are looking to launch a VPP-like program in the east here early second quarter. That coupled with our relationships with Good Leap and Sunrun, we continue to scale batteries up. So we feel really good about what we've learned so far and well ahead of our targets, as Larry had mentioned, in pacing well against the 300-megawatt number we gave you for 2027.

Fair enough. Still, I'm asking, when are we going to get a robust analyst then? But you don't necessarily need to commit today. More to come. I know.

Deal. So Julian, every day with us, Julian, is a robust day.

Love it. Okay, deal, Larry, deal. Talk to you guys soon. Thanks, Julian.

One moment for our next question. The next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Barclays. Your line is open.

Good morning. Congrats to Larry and Rob here. Appreciate the time.

Good morning. How are you? Hey, I'm good. I'm good. Staying warm. Before you ask your question, would you also congratulate Bruce, please? I'm feeling really hurt these days.

And congrats to Bruce. Congrats to Bruce. Thank you, Dan. Thank you, Dan. Hey, so look, good question so far. I just wanted to follow up on Char's comments and just what's kind of underpinning the two and a half, you know, I think in prior decks, you had this target price for signings above $80 per megawatt hour. Just what are your updated thoughts on, you know, where that figure is now and what's really kind of underpinning the two and a half here?

So, hey, good morning. It's Rob. So the, you know, the 80, we adjusted our targets from to an 80 plus kind of range. And as we've talked about them, we've mentioned that, you know, if you're going to build 1.2 gigawatts of GEV turbines, that number is going to be on the high end. So as you're thinking about how you get in there, think north of the $90 to $95 range where we were back in our original guidance. It's on the top end. It's got to pay for the equipment. It's got to pay for our return. And we're not going to do a deal unless it does. Hey, that's helpful. Thank

you um and then maybe just under understand the share repurchases if they were going to be affected at all from new build it sounds like it's more in the back end of the plan but i guess um you have a strategic advantage on costs and securing these turbines early um i assume they're going to be projects finance so just what would your kind of targeted equity contribution be um would it be in the 20 to 30 range and maybe that's just one way to understand you know how that could pressure the

buybacks. Thanks. Yeah, Nick, you know, from our perspective, project financing comes, sometimes it can be great. Other times it can be not so great. And I think in this particular instance, we really see value in simplicity. We see value in transparency. And so I don't think you should assume that, you know, project financing is the way that we would go. I think we would probably err on the side of corporate style balance sheet financing. And on that basis, that means you should be thinking about the capitalization for these projects, consistent with what our corporate capitalization would be, which is like that three times leverage level.

Three times leverage. All right. Thank you very much. I appreciate it. One moment for our next question. The next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolf. Go ahead. Your line is open. Hey, good morning.

i i was just hoping hey hey guys um i was just hoping maybe we could refresh a little on what the uh you know the key components of the organic growth uh beyond 2026 i know you've kind of laid that out in bits and pieces over the last year or so but can you maybe just frame that up between like the teff the vpp some of the other things what um what are kind of the core drivers and then how much of it is the buyback? I know that's become smaller as your stock's done well.

So in terms of the components that are driving the underlying earnings growth for the business, Mike, first it's the $750 million growth program that we had announced back in 2023. We are well on the path towards achieving that. We feel very confident that we're going to be able to get there. And if you recall, about half of that was from just regular way organic growth in the smart home business underpinned by like 6% net subscriber growth. And as you saw, we delivered 9% this past year. So the team is executing very well in that regard. And the other half is really from related growth investments in both the C&I business and the retail energy business. So, again, feel very confident about that 750. The other levers that are embedded in the plan right now are, you know, all three TEF plants. Remember, in the past, we did not have all three TEF plants in the plan, but we now have those, the last of which comes online in 2028. And then finally, we have the 400 and change of megawatts of the smaller data center deals that we had previously announced are also embedded in the plan. If you think about, you know, what that means in terms of how that shapes our growth in that 14 percent plus, you know, we talked about when we announced the LS transaction that it was about an 80-20 split of organic growth versus share of purchases driving that growth rate and it's pretty much the same as we sit here today okay that's

very helpful appreciate you laying that out Bruce and then just in terms of the upgrade opportunities at the LS assets and PJM and any sense of timing there just in terms of what you're going to do particularly with the RBA going on in the background but also the value of kind of speed and what you could do

there, just a sense of timing would be great. Hey, Sully, it's Rob. So we already have engineers at every plant running around and assessing not just the thousand megawatts of up rates that we mentioned when we did the transaction. We're obviously looking at that, but we're also running around, given the RBA and the need for additionality or bringing more power to the markets, we're running around to see if there's 25 or 50 megawatt clips that we can add onto the back of other assets. So we're out there looking, you know, expect to hear from us later when we actually have some math. But, you know, given the timing of the RBA and kind of how that plays out, you know, we're working very hard to know what we can bring to serve that market and serve our customers. And, you know, data centers want to get built up there too. So we'll be looking for opportunities to monetize that through hyperscalers. Okay. Thank you very much,

I appreciate it.

One moment for our next question. The next question comes from the line of Nick Amakuchi with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, guys. Larry, Rob, you guys have enough congratulations, so I'll just keep it with Bruce. Bruce, congratulations on that. Thanks, Nick.

You're now his new favorite. You're now his new favorite.

I got all the time in the world for you. Oh, perfect. That's what I was going for. I got three quarters worth of questions I got to ask. So just just kind of considering, you know, I mean, it's another kind of strong print, strong guidance. You've now kind of beaten and raised three straight times. Just anything that we could kind of pinpoint, like really what's gone well? What kind of exceeded the expectations just over the recent past?

I mean, you know, with a slight amount of humility, Nick, I'll say it's just we have a great team and we have great employees and we just execute really well. I mean, that's really what it boils down to is just execution, execution, execution. We took our lumps in years past. We learned a lot from those. We made a lot of significant operational changes. And, you know, that is really what's bearing fruit for us. I mean, bear in mind, too, that when we budget and we put out guidance, we plan for weather normalized. And depending on what happens with weather, you know, that can also influence the results. And for us, we've had situations where the weather has been favorable for us, and we've been able to take advantage of that.

Nick, I would only add to that. We've created a culture where, you know, our employees are always looking to improve, bringing improvements to the table and sharing them in ways probably we've never done before. You know, we are really one NRG across all of our businesses. And that kind of collaboration, just we keep finding new ways to do everything we do better and more profitably.

That makes a ton of sense. And then I just wanted to kind of triangulate a little bit, too. So just with the VPP opportunity and now having kind of the RTC plus B initiative in ERCOT in Texas, kind of up and running now for about two to three months. I mean, is there incremental kind of upside for you guys in particularly, just given the amount of data points, whether it be through Vivid or just, you know, incremental kind of touch points and able to arbitrage that? Is there kind of, should we be viewing that as kind of an incremental type of opportunity for you guys?

Yeah, I mean, it's early days, but we look at this as an enormous opportunity. opportunity and one that, you know, nobody is as well positioned to capture as we are and when, you know, I said at the end of my remarks that the best is yet to come, that's one of the things I think is yet to come, but I think it's an extraordinary opportunity that we're just really beginning to quantify and understand.

I will, I'll pass it on, but congrats again, Bruce.

Thank you. One moment for our next question. The next question comes from Bill Apicelli with UBS. Your line is open.

Good morning, and congrats to everybody in the room. Thank you.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Just a question around how you guys are evaluating the credit worthiness of the counterparties on some of these data center deals. Are you guys exclusively targeting Tier 1 hyperscalers, or how are you thinking about evaluating that risk?

Yes, we are. In fact, I would say that we're targeting even inside of the universe of hyperscalers. We watch all the same credit reports you do.

And then I guess on the retail channel, you guys rolled in the 400 and change of megawatts. I think you had talked about maybe potentially an incremental 500 megawatts within that channel. Is that still an opportunity for you?

Yeah, look, I think we, you know, we will still see, you know, some of those, I hate to think of 445 megawatts as smaller transactions, but they're smaller than the other ones we've been discussing. And, you know, those are ones that, you know, won't be targeted to the folks we were just discussing. So yeah, we still think that's a great channel that we'll continue to pursue. And you'll hear more about those going forward. But, you know, we're trying to distinguish for these purposes between the, you know, large gig plus hyperscaler deals and the, you know, smaller ones of the type that we've already announced during the year.

okay and then just one last one on the um the 2.2 billion of growth and unallocated through 2030 um can you maybe just unpack a little bit of how much of that is actually unallocated and so we can just you know maybe understand a little bit of you know on the back end of this plan uh when you start to announce some of these contracts you know uh how much of that is available to be allocated towards you know servicing the data center projects versus you know maybe having to pull in from some of the share repurchase bucket you know I

wouldn't necessarily I'd say if you think about the 2.2 you know a good chunk of that is is devoted to the growth plans that we have the organic growth plans over the years I wouldn't necessarily look at that bucket is a significant lever towards being able to contribute to the funding of these data center projects. At the end of the day, it's not like massive dollars that would be able to be redeployed anyway. So, you know, I don't think you should be thinking about it that way. Okay. All right. That's helpful. Thank you.

Thank you. One moment for the next question. The question comes from the line of Angie Storzynski with Seaport. Go ahead. Your line is open. Thank you, guys. Good morning. Good morning, Angie. How are you? Very good. Very good.

So my main question is about your upcoming gas-fired new build. I think I'm still recovering from the PTSD associated with gas-fired new build from the early 2000s and the assumptions that were made back then. I mean, I understand that your, you know, your contract will be mainly driven by capacity payments, but I still have only about a 10 to 15 year contract for an asset that has a 40 year useful life. And I'm sure you run the same math that I did. It's not actually so obvious to see that double digit return over the life of the assets, again, given the short duration of the contract. So how do you, you know, address this risk as you embark on the Gafford new build?

I think there's a few things, Angie. One is length of contract. I think we're looking probably past 10. But, you know, if you're looking at the pricing that we're getting and the costs that we're paying, we are not going to do anything that doesn't meet our unlevered hurdle rate that we've announced full stop. I promise you that. And Rob promises you that. And Bruce promises you that. I'm going to promise for everybody else in the room. But, I mean, Angie, I lived through that same period that you did. We have zero interest in being in the speculative new capacity build business, zero interest. And so, you know, the math, you know, we work on the math all the time. And, you know, people who want power at cost less than that, maybe they'll get it from somebody else, but they won't be getting it from us.

Okay, and those prices that you guys quote for those future contracts, do they incorporate payments for the site? So, for example, that $95 plus number.