Oshkosh Corp Q1 FY2022 Earnings Call

Greetings and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Fiscal 2022 First Quarter Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host Pat Davidson, Vice President of Investor Relations for Oshkosh. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our first quarter 2022 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings conference call, if at all. As a reminder, we have changed our fiscal year to align with the calendar year effective January 1, 2022. All comparisons during this call to the prior year quarter are to the quarter ended March 31st, 2021. Our presenters today include John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mike Pack, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please turn to Slide 3 and I'll turn it over to you, John.

Thank you Pat and good morning everyone. For the quarter we reported sales growth of 3% with adjusted earnings per share of $0.24 modestly above the expectations we shared on our last earnings call. As expected, we experienced peak level price cost headwinds during the quarter which challenged margins throughout the company. We expect price cost dynamics to improve in the second quarter and into the second half of the year as we begin to more fully realize the benefits of higher pricing levels. Customer demand remains healthy as evidenced by strong order activity during the quarter and record high backlogs. Our long term growth outlook is strong. Early in the quarter we experienced modest improvements in supply chain and commodity costs. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused further inflation pressure and parts constraints across industries. In response our team has acted quickly and implemented additional price increases in our non-defense segments. In fact, many of these adjustments in the access and commercial segments were effective immediately. We are also closely monitoring COVID-related lockdowns in China as this is impacting our production and parts availability in China as well as global supply chains. I'm proud of the efforts of Oshkosh team members who have shown their grit and determination as we work to overcome supply chain disruptions, freight, and logistics challenges as well as workforce constraints. During the quarter, we received our first order from the United States Postal Service for our cutting-edge next generation delivery vehicles. We have also remained active in the M&A and investment space. We purchased CartSeeker Technology during the quarter and just yesterday we completed a minority investment in Robotics, an autonomy leader in robotic research. You've heard us talk previously about the benefits we expect to generate with programmatic M&A and investments. These are important steps in our journey to drive accelerated growth. Also, Ethisphere once again named Oshkosh as one of the world's most ethical companies. This is our eighth consecutive year to be recognized and is emblematic of our strong culture rooted in doing business the right way. In light of a more difficult supply chain and cost environment we are updating our 2022 adjusted earnings per share expectations to a range of $5 to $6. Mike will provide further discussion on our expectations later in our presentation. Please turn to Slide 4 and we'll get started on our segment updates with Access Equipment. Our Access team grew sales by 20% over the prior year quarter as the team continues to execute in spite of short-term challenges. Despite ongoing supply chain disruptions and elevated commodity prices our team at JLG has taken many positive steps to improve the capacity and resiliency of our supply base. We saw pockets of improvement with our supply chain on-time delivery metrics but these metrics remain well off historical levels. Progress continues with the ramp-up of additional production lines at our Bedford, Pennsylvania and Jefferson City, Tennessee plants which should facilitate higher production rates going forward. The Access team has done an outstanding job of executing these key capacity expansion projects which allows us to continue to increase production to meet strong demand. During the early part of the quarter, commodity and freight cost began to moderate as we expected. As I mentioned in my opening remarks, Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused fuel, steel, aluminum, and numerous other input costs to increase sharply once again resulting in additional risk to our outlook for the second quarter and back half of the year. In response, we implemented additional surcharges on shipments beginning April 1, as we work to mitigate these headwinds. Orders were strong once again at $1.3 billion in the quarter. Market fundamentals are robust supported by high utilization rates and elevated fleet ages. We only recently opened our order books for 2023 and are already gaining solid visibility to requirements across our customer base for next year. We expect strong orders in the second quarter as we finalize many 2023 annual purchase agreements leading to our positive outlook over the next several years. Please turn to Slide 5 and I'll review our defense segment. Revenues for the defense segment were lower in the quarter versus the prior year quarter as a result of lower tactical wheeled vehicle budget that we've been discussing for a while. However, as we look to late 2023 and beyond, defense is an exciting growth segment as new programs such as the NGDV and Striker MCWS begin to ramp up. Our operating margin in the quarter was lower than we expected as a result of unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustments due to increased input cost expectations. We do not expect margins to be notably lower on a prospective basis at this time. Mike will provide further details in his section. We continue to execute the JLTV program well and are actively engaged in the recompete process. During the quarter the army extended the bid submission date from April to July of 2022. As a result, we expect the final decision to push out from September to the December 2022 time frame. As a reminder, we won the JLTV competition seven years ago knowing that it would be recompeted and we believe we are well positioned to retain the significant program. I mentioned our USPS order in my opening remarks. The first order is for nearly $3 billion and includes a total of 50,000 units of which approximately 10,000 units are battery electric up from prior expectations of approximately 5,000 units. And we have given the USPS the option to convert this order to an even richer mix of EVs should they have the funding to do so. Progress continues as we prepare our factory in Spartanburg, South Carolina for production and we look forward to supplying the USPS with these innovative new vehicles. You've heard us talk previously about the many adjacent market growth opportunities we are working on in the defense segment. One of the most significant adjacent programs is the Striker Medium Caliber Weapons System. We are very pleased with our progress on the program. The fiscal 2023 President’s Budget Request was published a few weeks ago and contains solid funding for the MCWS program as well as our other key programs. These adjacent programs as well as the USPS contract provide defense with a strong, long-term growth outlook beginning late 2023. Let’s turn to Slide 6 for a discussion of the Fire & Emergency segment. Demand is strong for our industry-leading products in the Fire & Emergency segment. Production and deliveries were constrained in the quarter as a result of supply chain disruptions and workforce challenges. These disruptions led to manufacturing inefficiencies and lower sales, both of which impacted profitability. Operating margins improved sequentially as we expected and we expect the company to deliver solid double-digit operating margins for the year as we benefit from price increases previously implemented and additional capacity that will be coming online later in the year and into next year. Orders remain strong at nearly $660 million during the quarter, leading to another record backlog. We announced a price increase effective February 1 and another price increase effective May 1. Our Volterra electric pumper is performing well for the Madison, Wisconsin Fire Department and we just completed the next unit for Portland, Oregon. The Madison and Portland units will be showcased at the FDIC trade show in Indianapolis this week. We will also debut our next generation PUC or Pierce Ultimate Configuration custom pumper unit which offers a proprietary pump placed under the cab resulting in best-in-class storage and productivity benefits for firefighters. The Volterra Electric ARFF has been generating strong interest with airports around the world and will be showcased at the INTERSCHUTZ Expo in Hannover, Germany in June. We will also be conducting demonstrations of the unit at several European airports this summer. These innovations continue to position our Fire & Emergency segment as the market leader. Please turn to Slide 7 and we'll talk about our commercial segment. The commercial segment grew revenues over the prior year quarter and made progress to a more typical level of profitability in the quarter despite experiencing the same price cost and supply chain challenges that I've mentioned with our other segments which affected volumes and margins. Our focused factory approach as part of a simplification mindset is gaining momentum and supports improved performance over time. The commercial segment has remained disciplined with pricing actions which we expect will drive higher margins as we progress through 2022. We've seen some signs of chassis availability improving, but it remains a primary focus in this segment as commercial is our biggest user of third-party chassis. Additionally, certain control modules and other components have also been constrained, impacting our ability to ship on pace with demand. During the quarter, we acquired CartSeeker curbside automation technology. CartSeeker complements our ongoing work with autonomy by providing operational simplicity and high performance to customers through patented AI-based recognition technology. Demand for RCVs has been solid, reinforcing our positive outlook. We have been working closely with our customers on requirements and many want to begin placing orders for 2023. We have not fully opened our order books for 2023 as we are continuing to watch and evaluate commodity markets. Our team will be attending Waste Expo in May, and we believe it will be a very well-attended show. There's a lot of excitement in the industry surrounding EVs and automation. Our EPTO RCV bodies for EV chassis are performing well in the market and our CartSeeker automation technology shows great promise. Demand for this type of technology in the environmental services space continues to strengthen, and we believe we are well positioned for this positive long-term trend. With that, I'm going to turn it over to Mike to discuss our results in more detail and our updated expectations for 2022.

Thanks, John and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8. Before I begin, I want to remind everyone that all comparisons to the prior year quarter are for the three months ended March 31, 2021. Starting with first quarter results, consolidated sales for the quarter were $1.95 billion or $57 million higher than the prior year quarter, representing a 3% increase. The consolidated sales increase was largely driven by a 20% or $145 million increase at Access Equipment due to strong demand, particularly in North America, partially offset by lower sales at Defense due to lower FHTV and FMTV volumes. Consolidated operating income for the quarter was $29.3 million or 1.5% of sales compared to adjusted operating income of $143.3 million or 7.6% of sales in the prior year quarter. Consolidated operating income decreased due to unfavorable price cost dynamics and increased manufacturing costs due in part to component shortages and labor challenges, offset in part by improved mix. Our consolidated price/cost headwind in the quarter came in higher than prior expectations at approximately $125 million, which impacted adjusted earnings per share by approximately $1.40. Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.24 compared to adjusted EPS of $1.48 in the prior year quarter. During the quarter, we amended and extended our credit agreement to March 2027. In conjunction with the extension, we repaid our outstanding term loan with a balance of $225 million at December 31, 2021, and increased our revolver availability from $850 million to $1.1 billion. We repurchased approximately 751,000 shares of common stock for a total cost of $85 million during the quarter. Please turn to Slide 9 for a discussion of our expectations for 2022. Companies around the globe are facing more challenges in 2022 than previously expected just a quarter ago. The most notable change is Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Prior to the invasion, steel, aluminum and freight costs had moderated. Now we are experiencing pronounced increases once again. Recent COVID-related lockdowns in China are affecting parts availability for our China facility and have introduced additional volatility to global supply chains. While we experienced pockets of supply chain improvement during the quarter, we also experienced a more challenging supply chain environment in some areas, including in our Fire & Emergency segment. Our previous outlook assumed moderate supply chain improvements throughout the year. As we are speaking today, the pace of supply chain improvements remains uncertain. With commodity and freight costs trending up again, all of our non-defense businesses have remained agile and have taken additional pricing actions. Notably, some of these pricing actions are effective on orders and backlog. This will mitigate some of the additional price cost headwinds we are facing. Nonetheless, there's a slight timing lag. As we said on our last call, we expect price cost headwinds to remain at peak levels in the first quarter, which was the case. While new cost pressures have emerged, which will impact the year, we do expect improvement in price/cost dynamics in the second quarter. We expect further improvements in price/cost dynamics in the second half of the year where we expect to be largely price/cost neutral. In total, we expect price/cost headwinds of approximately $180 million to $200 million for the year compared to our price/cost baseline before the rapid escalation in 2021. This is up from our prior expectations of $140 million to $150 million for 2022 with the primary impacts in the first and second quarters. On a consolidated basis, we expect sales of $8.1 billion to $8.6 billion in 2022, an increase of $100 million at both ends of our prior range. We are estimating operating income of $475 million to $560 million compared to our prior expectations of $545 million to $625 million, reflecting increased price/cost pressures and manufacturing inefficiencies driven by supply chain disruptions as well as direct labor constraints. We now expect adjusted EPS of $5 to $6 per share compared to our prior EPS range of $5.75 to $6.75. At the segment level, our sales outlook at Access Equipment is now $3.8 billion to $4.2 billion, a $100 million increase compared to our prior expectations, primarily driven by additional surcharge revenue as a result of our recent pricing action. Demand remains robust, so our revenue outlook is largely dependent on parts availability for the remainder of the year. We are estimating that Access Equipment's operating margin will be 8% to 8.75%, down from our prior estimate of 9% to 10%. Increased freight and component costs as well as manufacturing inefficiencies are contributing to our lower expectations. The recently announced surcharges should begin to mitigate incremental cost impacts during the second quarter. Turning to defense, our 2022 sales expectations of $2.2 billion remains unchanged. We now estimate our defense operating margin will be approximately 6.25% versus our prior expectation of 7%. The more persistent inflationary environment caused a higher-than-expected cumulative catch-up adjustment in the first quarter. While the unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustment impacts full year margin expectations, our defense segment has done an outstanding job mitigating the impacts of inflation with our overtime method of accounting consistent with ASC 606, changes in inflation assumptions can trigger larger adjustments in a single quarter. And importantly, our overall program margin expectations are only modestly lower than our prior assumptions. Fire & Emergency segment sales expectations remain largely flat to prior expectations at approximately $1.2 billion for the year. We expect the operating margin in the Fire & Emergency segment to be approximately 11% to 11.75% for the year, down from our prior expectation of approximately 13%. The decline in margin expectations is due to increased supply chain disruption and staffing challenges contributing to labor inefficiencies as well as additional cost pressures. We continue to estimate sales of $1 billion to $1.1 billion in the commercial segment, in line with prior expectations. And we are expecting operating margins for this segment of approximately 6.5%, down slightly from prior expectations of 7%. We estimate the adjusted tax rate for 2022 will be approximately 22.5%, and we are estimating an average share count of 66.5 million shares. Our expectations for CAPEX and corporate expense remain unchanged from prior expectations. And our expectation for free cash flow is now approximately $425 million versus our prior expectation of approximately $500 million, driven by a decrease in expected income. Looking to the second quarter, we expect consolidated sales to be approximately flat versus the prior year quarter, with Access Equipment up approximately 15% and defense revenues down by approximately 20%. We expect additional price realization in our non-defense businesses during the quarter as more of our sales will include price increases and surcharges implemented over the past year. We expect a low to mid-single-digit consolidated operating margin in the quarter, which represents solid improvement versus Q1 while being below our margin expectations in the back half of the year. I'll turn it back over to John now for some closing comments.

While we're facing short-term challenges with global events that have emerged over the past quarter, the market dynamics in all of our businesses remain strong. We have market-leading innovative products, and we are demonstrating leadership in this highly inflationary environment. We remain confident that the actions we are taking will enable us to return to stronger margins in the back half of the year and into next year. We are excited to see many of you next Friday at our Investor Day at the New York Stock Exchange. We are going to share our out-year targets for sales and earnings as well as key growth drivers in our businesses. You will also have the opportunity to meet the newest addition to our leadership team, Jay Iyengar, who serves as our Chief Technology Officer and Chief Strategic Sourcing Officer. She will be sharing many of the exciting new technologies that we're developing. Okay, Pat, back to you.

Thanks, John. I would like to remind everyone to limit their questions to one plus a follow-up and we need to be disciplined on the follow-up question please. After the follow-up we ask that you get back in queue and if you like to ask additional questions please do so. Operator, please begin the question-and-answer period of this call.

Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.

Thanks very much and good morning. Just within the low to mid-single-digit margin outlook that you have for the second quarter, can you just give us a little help on what the dispersion is there by segment, please?

Sure, I can take that. We expect to see progression in all the segments, and it should be fairly similar across the board. No one segment stands out significantly compared to the others, although Access may be a bit higher. The main factor contributing to the progression into the second quarter is the cost/price dynamic. It was $125 million in the first quarter, and we anticipate it will be around $65 million in the second quarter as more pricing comes into play.

Okay, that's helpful. Continuing with the second quarter, it seems like most of the guidance reduction occurred then. I’m curious about how much you believe the second quarter has been derisked and similarly, what are the biggest risks you see for the second half?

Sure. Let's take a moment to reflect on that progression. Based on your implied guidance, it's clear that the second half, as we've discussed even back at the last earnings call, is looking significantly stronger. The key issue is really about price trends. I previously mentioned that between the first and second quarters, we faced around $190 million in price/cost challenges, which is an increase compared to our earlier expectations. We have a considerable amount of pricing coming into play in the second quarter, and by the second half of the year, we expect to be mostly price/cost neutral. One factor that is adding pressure is the rise in commodity, component, and freight costs following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Earlier in the quarter, we did experience some decreases. We acted swiftly at Access and Commercial to address the higher inflation impact, and the pricing adjustments are being implemented quickly. As we wrap up the quarter, we're focusing on managing that additional inflation, which is why you’ll notice a significant change in our margin profile for the latter half of the year. The price increases we’ve established, which range from 15% to 20% across our segments, are the primary catalyst. By the end of the second quarter, we expect to be realizing prices at that range.

Thanks a lot.

Thanks Steve.

Our next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. So my first question is, what's the magnitude of pricing that you're taking for next year's 2022 orders for the Access Equipment segment, meaning, are you aiming for price cost neutrality for next year's orders or do you expect to recoup some of the margin loss this year?

Hey Tami, this is John. That's a great question. We have made significant pricing adjustments over the past year, and as Mike mentioned, our performance in the second half is anticipated to improve considerably because we will be processing our backlog at full price instead of the old pricing we are currently using to clear existing orders. We haven't fully opened our order intake for 2023 yet. Currently, we are negotiating annual purchase agreements for the Access Equipment segment for 2023, and we have implemented clauses to adjust our approach. Orders we are taking now for 2023 will be at full price, and should material costs increase further, we will have pricing adjustments in place at the time of manufacturing and delivery. We feel confident about our strategies for 2023. It’s essential that we adapt our operations due to the significant backlogs and lengthy lead times we are experiencing. This new operating method may differ from our usual practices, but we believe it’s the right approach for our situation.

Got it. Makes sense. And my follow-up is, I think it seems like your price/cost headwind expectation for the year is now an incremental $40 million to $50 million versus what it was last quarter. But then your operating profit guidance is lower by, call it, about $60 million to $70 million. So what is the delta, what line item is driving that delta between lower operating profit guidance and the incremental price/cost headwinds?

Sure. Yes, you're correct. The first and largest piece is the price/cost, and that's largely hitting the first half of the year, as you pointed out. The other large piece of that is manufacturing inefficiencies I mentioned in my prepared remarks, with the lumpy supply chains that is having an impact on manufacturing efficiencies, so that's really the other piece of it.

Got it. And that's also largely the first half. You don't expect manufacturing inefficiencies in the back half?

We do expect that supply chain moderates somewhat over the course of the year from a delivery perspective. But to be clear, we're not expecting it to be perfect by the end of the year. And our guidance does obviously accommodate a range of scenarios there.

Thanks Tami.

Got it, perfect. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of David Raso with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, thank you. Just curious, the backlog in Access is about $900 million more than the rest of the year implied Access sales. So obviously, it’s visibility into 2023 to some degree, if I'm doing that math right?

That's right, David, yes.

Can you give us some perspective on that $850-ish million of backlog that's already earmarked for 2023, a little more granularity on is that early conversations with majors, is it independents looking to get ahead, I'm just trying to get a sense of the demand where it's coming from for 2023, where they're willing to lock in business already, if you can give…?

Yes, David, as I mentioned earlier, we haven't completely opened our 2023 order book yet, but we have finalized some purchase agreements for 2023 with a few of our customers. I can't recall the exact details, but it includes a mix of IRCs and a few larger national companies. These agreements are representative of the backlog we have accumulated.

And anything unique about the mix from aerials, big booms versus scissors or teles, any color on that, I'm just curious on the mix?

From a mix perspective, what we're seeing is continued robustness in all the categories, and that really aligns with the fleet ages. Really all the categories are quite aged to really record levels at this point.

So the follow-up then on the margins in the back half of this year for Access feel like they're kind of north of 12% or so, assuming kind of mid-single-ish, a little better for the June quarter. And I'm just trying to think about that as you think about 2023, and I guess you hinted at this, we'll get some color next Friday on how you're thinking about Access margins, can you give us any perspective and I'm not asking for 2023 guidance, but you're going to touch bigger picture views of Access profitability at the meeting. Can you give us any perspective of how to think about that 12% plus in the back half of the year and how that might lead our thoughts on 2023? Thank you.

I would just say overall, with margins for Access, obviously, as we've talked about, a lot of the price cost dynamics we've had in Access, and we have a lot more price coming online. And as we've talked about a lot over the last several quarters, we're taking the right actions to get our margins back to what we expect and we believe we're well on the path to do that. Obviously, it's been a unique set of circumstances over the last year or so, but we believe we're well on track to get back to those normal margins in Access.

David, I think what you see in the back half of 2022 is indicative of what we will do in 2023.

Okay, helpful. Thank you so much.

Thanks.

Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, good morning. I guess just my first question on defense, understanding the puts and takes of what you said about margins for 2022, but they're sort of below where we had hoped. I'm just thinking defense margins until the Postal Service award starts to kick in, in the back half of the year, is that how we should think about margin. So that headwind sort of continues into 2023 or is there any reason to be more optimistic there? And then my other question or follow-up question is, it's nice to see you guys are putting the surcharges out there. I mean I think you said April is when you announced them. Did you see any deterioration in orders after the surcharge or maybe perhaps a pre-buy ahead of the announced surcharge which led to above-average orders in the quarter? Thanks.

Sure. I'll start with the first question regarding defense margins, and then John can address the surcharges. In the last quarter, due to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia and rising commodity prices, we've had to consider the inflation environment, which now appears to be more persistent. This requires us to assess our contracts and adjust our cost estimates accordingly. Currently, we have delivered about 75% on most of our contracts, allowing for a cumulative catch-up adjustment. As John and I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we do not anticipate our program margins being significantly lower going forward. The defense sector has managed this well, and it's important to view defense margins over time. Therefore, I expect that from a cumulative catch-up standpoint, this won't hinder our basic expectations for the rest of the year. I foresee stronger margins for the remainder of the year. You are right; we anticipate margins generally to hover in the high single digits until our new programs ramp up, where we will see growth return in the defense segment, particularly with NGDV, MCWS, and other related programs starting in late 2023.

Yes. And Jamie I'll add to that, Jamie. I'll just emphasize, defense is a growth segment for us. Now it doesn't feel like that in 2022, but we've been talking for a long time, knowing what the Presidential budgets for the 2022 would be a low year for tactical wheeled vehicles. As Mike said, we get into 2023, we start to bring programs online like the Striker program, like the United States Postal Service's big programs. This drives long-term growth in both revenue and earnings. So that's great for our business. Just a quick comment on surcharges that you talked about, we didn't see any material pull forward because of surcharges, and we also did not see any material slowdown in order rates because of our pricing and our surcharges. Our order rates have been strong. The only reason you might have seen a little bit of slowing in the first quarter of this year versus the comparable quarter a year ago is because we haven't fully opened 2023 yet, and we're working on all those annual purchase agreements now. So order rates have been strong even at full pricing and even at surcharges. And we don't like to do surcharges. It's based on the realities of what's in the logistics environment today. And that's why we have to do it. But the business is strong.

Okay, thank you.

Thanks Jamie.

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, good morning everybody. Thanks for taking the questions. I want to go back, John to the surcharge. It sounds like kind of a difference in the way you guys are doing business, which makes sense in an inflationary environment. But are you essentially like for the second half are you basically able now to sort of cover whatever happens on the cost side with surcharges kind of in real-time or is there still a lag or is there maybe a percentage of the business that surcharges don't touch, I'm just trying to get a sense of kind of how protected you are in the second half as things change?

Sure, I can take that. The surcharges start to take effect quickly in the second quarter. There might be a slight delay in some cases, but it's not significant. We're really seeing the benefits of the pricing in the latter half of the year, without exception. We will continue to monitor the situation closely as things are changing rapidly. We're keeping an eye on expert forecasts for commodities, the costs we're incurring, and so forth. We intend to stay flexible, and if we need to take further action, we will definitely do so.

Okay, great. And then probably the second half of that question is just on the cost side. Are you locked in essentially for kind of 2022 costs now or are those still pretty variable depending on market conditions?

For steel and aluminum, we're secured at a high percentage for hot-rolled coil steel. Previously, we mentioned being locked in at just over 50% for those. As the year progresses, we will gain more visibility into additional costs. The futures market has been quite volatile lately, making it challenging to secure further locks in that area. Freight costs, in particular, have been very unstable, largely due to rising fuel prices following the invasion. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and respond swiftly to any changes.

Great, thank you.

Thanks Steve.

Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.

Yeah, hi. Good morning everyone. I'm wondering if you could just talk about on the Postal Service contract. Do you have pass-through on commodity setup given the inflation we've seen and battery costs in particular, I'm wondering how should we think about your commodity exposure on that contract and if you can comment on which contract drove the majority of the cumulative catch-up adjustment this quarter in defense as well? Thanks.

So I'll start with the Postal Service contract. The Postal Service contract, we're relatively well protected on this contract. There's two things to talk about. Number one, there's an economic adjustment in the contract, which helps protect us for a significant amount of inflation. But the other side of it is we've got long-term agreements with a lot of our suppliers. Now there's not long-term agreements on everything, so there's a little bit of exposure as you look to our supply base proposal. But there's also a lot of protection in it with agreements that we have with our supply base. So we feel pretty good about where we are with the postal contract. I'll let Mike comment on the cumulative catch-up adjustments.

Sure. The cumulative catch-up adjustment is primarily related to the Major Tactical Vehicle Programs, reflecting the scale of those programs. As we evaluate the components and consider the anticipated extended timeline for inflation, it has contributed to this adjustment. However, it is essentially proportional across the various programs.

Okay. Great. And then given the move higher in cost in the first half of the year, I'm wondering if you could just comment on, is that a function of suppliers declaring force majeure and setting up new prices to you folks or is that having to be flexible going into second and third-tier suppliers at spot, can you just talk about the drivers of the near-term volatility given the factors you mentioned earlier in the call? Thanks.

Freight is certainly a significant factor, as it tends to occur in real-time. There has also been considerable movement among suppliers, especially with the rising prices of commodities due to global events. We're monitoring the lockdowns in China closely, as they could impact the supply chain. Overall, it’s a combination of factors that are influencing the situation.

Yes. To elaborate on that, we felt quite optimistic during the early part of Q1 in January. As Mike mentioned earlier, we utilize a comprehensive forecast for commodities and material cost inflation. However, recent significant events, including the situation in Ukraine and China's COVID developments, have altered those forecasts, leading to increased costs. This cost escalation has occurred at the commodity level, and our reliable suppliers have also been affected, prompting some rapid price increases that have required us to revise our forecasts. Additionally, there are changes in the freight costs, as Mike discussed. All these factors dramatically shifted in the latter part of the quarter.

Right, right.

Thanks Jerry.

Our next question comes from the line of Chad Dillard with Bernstein. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, good morning guys. So in your revised guidance, I just want to understand what you're assuming about the supply chain, just like the slope of the improvement? And then also, if you can quantify the manufacturing cost absorption that you're seeing year-on-year? And then just lastly, I just want to confirm whether the surcharge, does that include airfreight as well?

It includes all relevant aspects. Regarding the supply chain, we anticipate a gradual improvement throughout the year. Reflecting on comments from last quarter, we don't expect it to be perfect by the year's end. We do expect some moderation, but not a return to the fully traditional conditions we've seen in the past.

Yes. Again, it's based on that aggregate of third-party forecast. We believe it is relatively conservative.

Now as we talked about, it deteriorated in the middle of the quarter due to some of these external events, but it's not expecting any miracles to happen. It's a relatively conservative outlook on where things should expect to be.

Got it. Okay. And I was hoping also if you could break down your Access outlook by geography just in terms of how you're thinking about revenue growth expectations for the year?

I would say generally similar to what we saw in the first quarter, North America is the strongest, but we're seeing Europe as relatively robust as well. China, obviously, with the COVID lockdown and so on, is probably under a bit more pressure. So I guess that's how I'd characterize the majority; the most meaningful growth is really coming from North America.

Yes, the Access Equipment market is very strong. I want to emphasize that we continue to see, and it's evident in our backlog and strong order rates, a multiyear growth segment with growth ahead of us. This is driven by fundamentals, particularly the aging of equipment, which is the most aged we've ever seen. For instance, used prices are quite high, and nonresidential construction forecasts are positive for that growth. This is a key indicator for Access Equipment. We're also noticing ongoing increases in applications for the equipment, indicating a need for fleet growth. All of this points to strong growth for the segment for several years to come. We're also observing this trend in Europe, where an aged fleet is emerging, and we anticipate that demand will continue to rise. There are many promising developments for the Access Equipment market on the horizon.

Thank you.

Thanks Chad.

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your questions.

Hey, good morning guys. Can you maybe just talk about the backlog in the quarter in the defense segment. I was curious whether the entire NGDV order was put into that backlog and whether any major chunks in other programs were there as well? If you back out the entire NGDV program, perhaps backlogs were down a bit from the prior quarters. I just want to get a little bit color about what how bigger parts were?

I appreciate the question, Mike. To clarify, the order we received was the first order for the U.S. Postal Service, which amounts to about $3 billion, and that has been added to the backlog. However, it’s important to note that this represents the first order for the entire program. With regard to the other items in the backlog, there has been some fluctuation in the tactical wheeled vehicle budgets, which has resulted in a slight decrease in backlogs for those programs. The backlog for tactical wheeled vehicles can vary, but we are still looking at a timeline that extends well beyond this year, providing us with good visibility. Ultimately, much of this is influenced by the timing of the orders for tactical wheeled vehicles.

I wanted to ask about the commercial performance of concrete compared to refuse. It seems that concrete faced challenges last quarter. Both products utilize commercial chassis, so could you provide an outlook on how concrete is expected to develop throughout 2023?

Yes, I'll take that. The commercial business, the backlog is strong. It's the strongest we've seen in a long time, and it's across both the refuse and the concrete markets. The reason you saw the concrete was a little bit subdued in the quarter was purely because of supply chain and our ability to produce based upon what we could get. Now some of that's chassis and sometimes it's control modules and electronic units, we can't get. So it's a number of things. Chassis are probably the headline. But both of those businesses have good backlogs and good order rates and are running strong. It's purely back to what we've been talking about earlier, supply chain constraining our ability to ship units.

Okay, thanks so much.

Our next question comes from the line of Mic Dobre with Baird. Please proceed with your questions.

Thank you, good morning. Just going back to Access, I guess a couple of questions. You mentioned that you're using escalators as far as pricing goes into 2023. And I'm sort of curious if that essentially cuts both ways, right, in terms of both commodity inflation, but potentially exposing you to lower input costs as well as far as your pricing goes? And then related to this, I think I heard you say that right now you're looking at price increases of 15% to 20%, and I'm presuming that, that applies to Access Equipment as well. Your customers, how are they sort of taking these kinds of pricing increases, is there any sort of pushback, especially from your larger customers when it comes to seeing this kind of move in price?

Yes, I'll answer the price side of that, Mic. Nobody likes the environment that we're in. Everybody is dealing with it in every industry that there is. And we try to be very, very transparent with our customers and of course, very fair. We don't like to have to increase price, but it's the realities of the climate that we're in. And so ultimately, our customers understand why we're doing what we're doing. Our prices have been sticky. We have not had issues with our order rates dropping or getting big cancellations because we've got price increases. That has not been the case. Our order rates continue to be strong at full price. And that's what I'd say, but I can't be any more clearer than that on.

Any comments on the escalator?

Yes. If commodity costs decrease in 2023, that's positive news. That’s all I will say. We will have a much better ability to maintain the margins we anticipate, which we will observe in the second half of the year if we see a significant drop in costs. That's all I will say about that.

Right. But I'm sorry to press you on this, there's a difference between a price increase and an escalator. An escalator would imply to me that things move both ways. And I'm just trying to understand how you're setting up your contracts, just to be clear?

Well, I'll be as basic as I can about it. It gives us the right based upon from the time we took the original order until the time that we ship. If there's a material shift in material cost, we can reprice the product. That's what we have negotiated for 2023 orders that we're taking now.

Okay. And then lastly, on defense. I'm curious if you're able to tell us from what's already in the backlog from the USPS, how much of that gets delivered into 2023 and we talked a little bit about margins and you talked about some of these contract adjustments. As we look into 2023, is it fair to assume that margins can start normalizing towards that double-digit run rate that we are kind of seeing two or three years ago or is that too optimistic at this point?

Regarding the Postal Service deliveries, we're primarily focused on the latter half of the year, so it won't significantly impact revenue for 2023 yet. However, we anticipate a more substantial increase starting in 2024 and thereafter, which serves as a baseline. As for margins, a cumulative catch-up adjustment resets our margin expectations moving forward. Factors like declining commodity prices could lead to higher margins. However, due to an unfavorable cumulative catch-up adjustment, this doesn't accurately reflect the program margins for the quarter we reported. The program margins are only slightly different from what I mentioned in my prepared remarks. If estimating a large contract, any adjustments for inflation could significantly impact a single quarter. We do not expect defense margins to differ significantly from what we have seen over the past year in quarters without cumulative catch-up adjustments.

Thanks Mic.

Alright, thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.

Thanks for including me. Good morning. Can we discuss the recent questions regarding the surcharge and pricing? I'm curious if your approach aligns with what your industry peers are doing. Have others also started implementing surcharges, and what insights can you share about competitive pricing?

What I can say about competitive pricing is very general. All of our competitors are increasing prices, and they are in the same climate as us, regardless of the segment we operate in. I'm not going to specify who is implementing pricing changes or surcharges. We analyze our business based on the realities we are experiencing. Recently, the surcharges are related to logistics and freight. There has been a lot of disruption in freight, causing costs to rise significantly. Our analysis indicated that implementing surcharges is the best way to address this. However, all our competitors are taking some action, and I will leave it at that.

Okay, that's helpful, thank you. There's been a lot of discussion about Access and Defense on this call. However, I'd like to address Fire & Emergency. It seems the margins were slightly weaker than anticipated in the first quarter. I understand you have a strategy to return to double-digit margins there. Is the issue strictly related to pricing and costs in that segment, or are there additional significant factors we should consider?

There's some price cost, but it's relatively less than what we see in Access and Commercial as a percentage of their business or revenues. Additionally, as John and I noted earlier, we experienced higher part shortage levels. There are numerous components that contribute to fire trucks, and these part shortages are causing some labor inefficiencies this quarter. However, we believe supply chains will stabilize over time, so this isn't a long-term concern for us. We anticipate that normalcy will continue to return throughout the year, leading to the margin improvements reflected in our guidance.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions.

Hi, good morning guys. Just wanted to go back to the change in the revenue guidance for Access. I think you mentioned obviously that you'd put the surcharges in, but you mentioned a couple of times that output has been limited by supply chain disruption. So I just wanted to confirm whether you are expecting reduced volume output versus your original guidance or if all of the increase is just same volume and upside just via pricing? And then, I guess, same question on some of the other segments that we didn't see guidance change. But you did mention that you're taking pricing there was it just too marginal to change guidance on the top line?

Yeah, first of all in Access, volume is pretty similar, maybe some small mix change in there, but the biggest thing is the surcharge revenue driving that change. So volume assumption is largely unchanged. And yes, with the other business, our non-defense businesses, I would say, there's additional revenue coming online for commercial, in particular, with their surcharges but it's sort of within the rounding range of our guidance. So within that, there's a bit of a pickup there, but it's less meaningful than Access.

Okay, great, thanks. And then I know there were some comments earlier about the USPS contract. But now that you have some clarity on the BEV versus ICE, just curious if there's a significant margin discrepancy between those two platforms and especially on the sales side as well, could there be a difference in how we'd be modeling that?

Yes. The best way to think about the ICE versus the BEV margin is that BEV is higher technology. There is a little bit more cost in the BEV unit. A BEV unit has a higher price point, and therefore, the margin dollars are higher than an ICE unit. So that's what I'll say about it. They drive higher margin dollars and higher price points.

Okay, got you. Thanks.

We have reached the end of our allotted time for questions. I would now like to turn the floor back over to management for closing comments.

Thank you. We talk a lot about the fact that we're facing short-term challenges with global events that have emerged over the past quarter. We've also talked about the market dynamics in all of our businesses and that they remain really strong. We have market-leading innovative products, and we are certainly demonstrating leadership in this tough environment. We are confident that the actions we're taking will enable us to return to stronger margins in the back half of the year and most importantly, in the next year and beyond. We are very, very excited by the way about next Friday for our Investor Day at the New York Stock Exchange. We hope to see many of you there. We're going to share our out-year targets for sales and earnings and key growth drivers in our business, and we look very much look forward to doing that and appreciate your time and attention today. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.