Plains Gp Holdings LP Q3 FY2024 Earnings Call

Thank you, Towanda. Good morning, and welcome to Plains All American's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Today's slide presentation is posted on the Investor Relations website under the News and Events section at plains.com. An audio replay will also be available following today's call. Important disclosures regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures are provided on Slide 2. An overview of today's call is provided on Slide 3. A condensed consolidating balance sheet for PAGP and other reference materials are in the appendix. Today's call will be hosted by our Chairman and CEO, Willie Chiang; Executive Vice President and CFO, Al Swanson, as well as other management team members. With that, I will turn the call over to Willie.

Thank you, Blake. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Plains delivered another solid operational quarter as our business continued to strengthen. Based on year-to-date performance and our outlook for the balance of the year, we now expect to be towards the top end of our 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $2.725 billion to $2.775 billion as we show on Slide 4. Permian volume growth remains on track with our original forecast of 200,000 to 300,000 barrels a day range for 2024. That's exit to exit. And we're seeing producer efficiencies offsetting lower than forecasted horizontal rig counts. Regarding our NGL business, we're on track to complete our Fort Saskatchewan Fractionation expansion project on schedule and on budget in the first half of 2025. Additionally, we continue to pursue opportunities to advance our efficient growth strategy through bolt-on acquisitions, and we recently acquired the Fivestones Permian gathering system from Rattler Midstream. As shown on Slide 5, we continue to execute on what we believe is a long runway of bolt-on opportunities across our portfolio. Consistent with our investment framework, these transactions complement our existing base creating incremental growth opportunities and enhance our financial profile. Before turning the call over to Al, I'd like to provide an update on our efforts to resolve the remaining contingencies related to our 2015 oil spill in California. We recently settled two lawsuits, and we have booked a charge of $120 million to our overall Line 901 accrual. With these two settlements, we believe we have resolved all material Line 901 claims against Plains. With respect to our $225 million claim for reimbursement of a prior class action settlement from our insurance carriers, we expect the majority of the claim, $175 million to be resolved in the first quarter of 2025, which we continue to believe that we are entitled to reimbursement. Overall, we view this settlement as prudent risk management, providing us with more certainty regarding our future cash flow, which allows us to more confidently focus forward on our strategic priorities. With that, I'll turn the call over to Al.

Thanks, Willie. We reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA net to PAA of $659 million. This reflects the benefit of higher Permian volumes across our gathering, intra-basin and long-haul footprint and provides momentum for our crude oil segment as we exit 2024. Slide 6 and 7 in today's presentation contains walks that provide details on our third quarter performance. A summary of our updated 2024 guidance is on Slide 8. Shifting to capital allocation as illustrated on Slide 9. For 2024, we expect to generate approximately $1.45 billion of adjusted free cash flow, excluding changes in assets and liabilities and including $140 million of bolt-on acquisitions with approximately $1.15 billion to be allocated to common and preferred distributions. Please note that our adjusted free cash flow guidance has been updated to reflect our recent bolt-on announcement, charges associated with the previously mentioned legal settlements and our updated commentary on full year guidance. As Willie mentioned, we continue to advance our efficient growth strategy while maintaining financial flexibility. Our efforts were recently recognized by Moody's, resulting in an upgrade to Baa2 with a stable outlook, with the upgrade, we have now achieved our target of having a mid BBB rating at all three credit rating agencies. With that, I'll turn the call back to Willie.

Thanks, Al. While we are optimistic about the future of the U.S. energy industry, which we expect to benefit from improved energy policy, regulatory framework, and hopefully streamlined permitting, all critical to U.S. energy security and our industry's ability to meet global energy needs safely, reliably and responsibly. Our Plains portfolio is more resilient based on the work over the past several years, the investments we've made and our focus on improving the durability of our earnings, which positions us well to navigate through a volatile macro environment with geopolitical unrest, potential OPEC supply changes, uncertainty around China and broader economic activity. Our company remains well positioned and our strategy is proven. We've made tangible progress across the three key tenets of our strategy: generate significant multiyear free cash flow, maintain capital discipline and return capital to our investors while preserving financial flexibility. The Plains team continues to deliver on our goals and initiatives and our improved outlook provides us more confidence in the trajectory of our business and long-term focus on increasing return of capital to unitholders. With that, I'll turn the call over to Blake, who will lead us into Q&A.

Thanks, Willie. The IR team will also be available after the call to address any additional questions you may have. Towanda, we're ready to open the call for questions, please.

Our first question comes from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.

I wanted to ask about your Permian gathering volumes this quarter. They look particularly strong to us. And I wanted to understand better how much of that is being driven organically versus contributions from acquisitions? And is there anything you'd call out in terms of special items this quarter?

So we have not separated those figures, but we have observed significant growth on the organic side, which is likely the main contributor. Year-over-year, there was some slight growth from the acquisitions, but a large part was driven by organic growth from completions throughout the system.

Okay. Great. I wanted to ask you basically like a high-class problem question. So your leverage is now meaningfully below your target range. So I was wondering what that means going forward? Do you think you may lower the target range for leverage? You've got excess capacity here for additional capital return; yes, just trying to think through the different options you have as leverage ticks below your target?

Yes, Michael, this is Willie. Thanks for the acknowledgment of the lower leverage. We don't intend to lower our leverage range, which is 3.25x to 3.75x any lower. We're pleased where we are. And what we've really done is with the announcement of the settlement on our California litigation, it gives us more confidence to execute against our strategy. And what is that? Maximizing free cash flow. We've got a lot of self-help that's going on. But as we've shared, we did before in the group, we're focused a lot on optimization. We call it efficient growth. Certainly, capital efficiency is in there. So we're also trying to do things without capital that improve our business, which is around optimizing our assets, our margins working with our customers kind of get win-wins. And with that allows us to execute on the kind of the second pillar of our efficient growth strategy, which is really around bolt-on acquisitions. So when you think about how we deploy capital, we think the bolt-ons for us offer the highest return opportunities for the unitholders. We've done a number of those, as you've seen. We continue to want to do more, and we think we're going to be able to evaluate them, but we're going to stay very disciplined on what we pay for it. Because we want to stay true to not just growing, but growing the returns. Financial flexibility remains there. And then back to the last bullet point as we think about returning cash back to shareholders, that's ultimately where we want to focus on and get to over multiple years. So it gives us lots of flexibility to do many things, also looking at reoptimizing our balance sheet and if we're unable to find opportunities for bolt-ons, we will look a little bit more towards some of those options. And hopefully, that helps.

Our next question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis with Citi.

Maybe I want to go back to volumes if we could. So I imagine you're in discussions now with producers as we head into the 2025 budget season and perhaps not ready to provide a final view on 2025. Just curious how these early conversations are going, if you could give us a sense of how the year is shaping up here?

Spiro, this is Willie. We haven't provided guidance yet, but I can share that our estimate for this year in the Permian was between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels a day. We expect to remain within that range, which is more back-end weighted. Looking ahead, while we don't have specific details, we anticipate similar growth ranges in the future.

Spiro, I would agree with that. What I would say is that producer forecasts are matching that from our initial dialogue, but they don't get their budgets into a little bit later, and we won't. We'll tie those into our forecast for next year.

Got it. Got it. We'll wait on that then. And maybe just to go back to capital allocation, but from a different perspective, maybe, I guess we've seen some healthy public valuation markers out there over the last three months or so. And I guess I'm just curious, specifically around the crude pipeline side, I guess I'm just curious, what does that do to the bid-ask spread from here as you approach some of these bolt-on deals? And maybe as we think about it the other way, what is the current thinking about the value of your stock relative to some of those public markers and what that means for buybacks, any tracking this year?

Spiro, I'll take the first part. On the valuation, every asset is unique. Some of the ones that you saw have specific attributes around acreage dedications, producer forecasts, et cetera. So one asset doesn't necessarily set the market for everything. It does say that midstream assets are highly valued, and we're very happy with the assets that we own. We'll be disciplined. We take a very intensive approach to how we look at transactions. And I don't think it impacts our valuation with respect to how we look at assets and our cash flow requirements. But we'll certainly pay attention to that. We understand the markets, and we understand the dynamics of each asset, and we'll look at them each individually. As far as the valuation question, I'll turn that to Willie.

Spiro, I think you realize this. For us, because of our asset base and the integrated nature of what we do, a lot of times, we're able to capture synergies that others aren't. So that adds to the comments that Jeremy talks about on our view that we should be able to, and really at an evaluation, we'll capture more value than others on the bolt-ons. As far as the valuation for Plains, I'll give you a short answer. We think it's lower than it should be, and it's our efforts to drive the value higher.

Our next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan Securities.

I just wanted to touch base a little bit more on the bolt-ons, if I could. And I just wanted to see your current thoughts, I guess, on the water business as far as water disposal is concerned, a real important part of the activity in the Permian. Just wondering, is that a line of business where you could see activity going forward or does it not fit your business profile?

Well, Jeremy, this is Willie. I'm not going to comment on specifics. For us, the question is whether we can create synergies in the business related to water. Currently, we don't have significant exposure to it. If there was an asset that aligned well with our business, we would definitely consider it. However, we've mostly focused on our existing asset base and refining our core operations. At this point, we don't actively look into that area, and I don't have any specific updates on whether we would enter that business or not.

Got it. That's helpful there. And then maybe just looking up north for a minute, your Canadian platform. Just wondering how you think about that. At this juncture, do you see more growth initiatives beyond what's announced via bolt-ons or organically? Or how do you see yourself, I guess, within the competitive landscape there?

I'll start by saying that in our Canadian business, our team has dedicated significant effort to concentrate on two main areas: one in Edmonton and the other in Eastern Canada, optimizing our focus there. Expanding our Fort Saskatchewan facility is essential for enhancing our fee-based cash flow stability. We are transitioning more towards fee-based arrangements rather than margin-related ones. There are additional opportunities in the region that we would evaluate in the same way. If we can achieve synergies through integration, we are certainly open to exploring that, but our current priority is to complete the Fort Saskatchewan project on time and within budget.

Our next question comes from the line of Indraneel Mitra with Bank of America.

I guess this is directed to Jeremy. I just wanted to understand how maybe some of their crude flows are changing with less heavy coming down to the Gulf Coast, how that's impacting Basin, your shipping storage assets and maybe even the Rockies, just your entire system if there's changes at all?

Thanks, Neel. The TMX start-up is currently approaching 400,000 barrels a day, with an additional 50,000 to 100,000 barrels a day. This has resulted in a reduction of about 150,000 to 200,000 barrels a day in heavy exports from the Gulf Coast. Consequently, we've seen all-time record throughputs during the summer. Our specific facility, along with our refinery-focused assets and pipelines, are performing near record levels, so our assets haven't been significantly affected there. On the light side, the combination of light barrels being exported and reductions in some flows from the DJ and Rockies areas has actually enhanced basin flows, which we observed this quarter. We anticipate this trend to continue as Permian production increases and these dynamics evolve.

Okay. Perfect. I wanted to ask a general question. We've seen some peers acquire crude gathering in the Permian, and I know that's something you've been doing on the bolt-on side as well. And on the NGL side, you can direct barrels down your own pipeline, is there any context on the size of the customer or whether you can actually create an integrated system there? Or does the customer kind of choose the pipeline? And I understand in your case, your biggest exposure is to Corpus, so people would want to go there. But is it all like the NGL business? Or does every customer get to choose?

Neel, this is Willie. Let me ask you to clarify. Were you asking about Canadian integrated NGL or crude oil in Permian?

I'm sorry, crude oil in the Permian. The gathering systems that you acquired, do those customers have the choice of choosing the crude pipeline that they collect their barrels on? Or do you have some optionality to move the barrels for them on?

So it's a good question. It's a function of who the customer is and who the shippers are on the lines connected to the gathering system. And so the answer is it depends. But in many cases, Plains marketing is the shipper on a lot of our assets and we can structure that to where we're the first purchaser or we buy and sell and give it back to that customer at different locations. So we purchase it there, we move it to the market, and then we give them another barrel back at a different location. So there's lots of flexibility, and that's one of the benefits of our assets. We don't force anyone to go anywhere. We have substantially more pipelines than most of everyone else's. So the uniqueness of our asset is we don't force them to a destination. They can get to Midland, Crane or any of the other export destinations, and they get to any of the pipes out of the basin. So I think one of the uniqueness that allows us to grow our position is not forcing anyone to a specific location and having substantial liquidity to keep our pipelines full and do that.

Neel, I'll thank you in advance, you helped us with our calling card with our customers. It's flow assurance, reliability, quality control and access to multiple markets. So we think we have the ability to be able to offer customers all those things and perhaps differentiate us from some of our other competitors.

Our next question comes from the line of A.J. O'Donnell, TPH.

Just a quick question from me or a couple of questions from me. First, starting with the CapEx budget. It looks like it came down a bit for 2024. I was just wondering if you could maybe expand on some of the details of driving the change there? Is it related to anything with project timing, cost savings or something else?

A.J., this is Chris Chandler. So yes, we had lower our guidance from $375 million to $360 million net to Plains. This was primarily driven by deferred spending for several projects in the development phase. This, as you heard earlier, does not change the timing of our Fort Sask expansion project that's currently in field construction and on track to begin in the first half of 2025. I'd also note that while spending is being deferred to 2025, we still expect 2025 to be within the previously stated investment capital range of $300 million to $400 million net to Plains.

Okay. Great. Maybe just one more on oil growth in the Permian. Now that we're most of the way through the year, I'm just curious if you can give us some guidelines about how much you've seen so far this year? And maybe how much more we could expect in Q4 now that we have incremental gas egress online from Matterhorn?

A.J., this is Jeremy. I would say, we're certainly within the range now. But typically, you see things slow down as you go in, given the potential weather and then you go into December. Last year was particularly strong in the fourth quarter, which muted some of the growth this year because you had a real reduction in January of this year. But since July, we've seen steady growth across our system and other systems in the basin, and we certainly feel confident in the 200,000 to 300,000 barrel a day range.

Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta with UBS.

Quick question. Last quarter, you did raise the guidance. Now obviously, you have indicated you're coming in to the top of that guidance. So help us understand a few things that are going your way, which have allowed you to kind of raise guidance for two quarters in a row now?

Yes, this is Al. Just basically, we're seeing slightly better performance across our business, both on the crude side and the NGL side. Volumes have been a little bit stronger than we had assumed on the Permian, and the NGL business as well, better recoveries off the fracs. And so it's no one thing. And what I would say is it's a fairly small percentage type of change. If you look and take the high end, we're kind of indicating trending towards the high end, the high end relative to the beginning of the year guidance is 3.7%. But there's no one attribute. It's across both segments and multiple areas inside of each of the segments.

Perfect. My quick follow-up is, can you get some more commentary around the Fivestones gathering system acquisition? Why was it the right fit and the benefits of this deal?

Sure. This is just bread and butter for us. It's an asset that was already connected to us. The mainline intra-basin flows to us and they got us closer to the Rattler guys; we do some business with them, and it integrated the barrels into the system. So this was very similar to many of the other ones done, but just on a smaller scale.

Our next question comes from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

I wanted to circle back maybe just on the capital efficiency side. I know you guys aren't giving 2025 guidance here. But I guess just high level as we continue to see the producers basically be able to be more efficient in the Permian, longer laterals, etc. Does that mean for Plains, your kind of effective gathering CapEx per barrel can continue to decline from here? I'm just trying to think about framing that up versus your high-level $300 million to $400 million run rate, whether that kind of can come down further over time?

Sure. There are two main aspects to consider. First, we are seeing higher recoveries due to fewer connection points and less need to pursue additional wells. Second, we are moving toward larger developments, utilizing 4 to 8-well pads instead of the historical 1 to 2-well pads. The goal is to reduce emissions points and achieve higher recoveries, which aligns with our strategy of connecting fewer locations. This may involve larger facilities, which we can accommodate. Additionally, having fewer emissions points allows us to work behind existing well sites. For instance, nearly 40% of our connections in the Permian are behind existing infrastructure, meaning we are simply updating pumps and meters rather than building new facilities. We have been witnessing this capital efficiency for the past five years and plan to continue in this direction. Chris and his team are adapting their practices to manage the evolving conditions in the field.

Yes, John, this is Willie. Just one thing to add. Obviously, for us, more volume that's stable is better for companies like us. So my expectations are as continued progress goes on efficiency and technology, we hopefully avoid large, large new wells coming on, big declines, and anything that smooths that out obviously has advantages and allows us to be more capital efficient and help our producer partners.

That's great. That's helpful. Maybe just a second one, going back to, I think Neel's question. We're a few years out now from the Oryx acquisition standing up the big JV. Part of the story at the time was looking to redirect maybe eventually some of those volumes onto the Plains long-haul pipes. So maybe if you could just tie that back into your comments earlier around the general flexibility you guys are giving shippers, and then maybe specifically, just an update on kind of how that Oryx strategy has kind of played out?

Sure. I'd say it's actually been better than we expected. Both us and our partners are very happy with the JV. What I would say is the Oryx shippers now have more choices than they did before. And we hope to offer better service to give them the barrel at one location and get it back. So they still have their old options. They have the new ones. Our pipe has maintained being full. It's been good for our Wink-to-Webster customers. We're the largest origin point for Wink-to-Webster; they're a big consumer of barrels in the Permian Basin. It's been good for our long-haul pipes and our third parties because we maintain connectivity there. So that's more of a defensive strategy in the case the pipes aren't full, but the basins continue to grow and our pipes remain full. So at this point, it's been perfectly fine and optionality has been good with our customers. And it candidly allows us to integrate other parts of their business, maybe where we didn't do business with them to integrate more pieces of their acreage to give them more options and let them trade across the platform.

Our next question comes from Neal Dingmann with Truist Securities.

My question is regarding overall producer volumes and activity. I'm curious about what your operators are currently doing as they wrap up the year with oil and NGL volumes. Is it aligning with your expectations for the end of this year and the start of next year? Are you still observing any significant Delaware infrastructure or other constraints that might be affecting activity?

That's a good question. New Mexico gas evacuation is likely the biggest constraint we've encountered this year. While it's not ideal, Kinetic mentioned in their call that there's still some gas in Northern New Mexico. The industry is addressing these bottlenecks, which are essential for getting gas to market and will benefit our gathering systems. Overall, most of those bottlenecks have mostly been resolved. Water remains another issue, but the industry is managing it as well. I would say that the most surprising aspect for us has been the ongoing efficiency improvements from producers. You've heard that from their call, and they continue to enhance their performance. Additionally, consolidation has positively influenced this trend for us and the industry collectively. Therefore, we're cautiously optimistic, and everything seems to be on track to meet or exceed our expectations for the upcoming year.

Yes, it's great to hear. I have a quick follow-up on the NGL segment. I'm curious about how we should now view this segment operationally and financially, considering you've described it last quarter as more of an integrated value chain following those 15-year-plus contracts. What kind of differences should we anticipate in operations and finances now that you've made that transition?

Yes.

Go ahead, Willie.

I think the biggest takeaway is as we've been able to swap margin-based business to fee-based business. And as we go forward, our goal is to obviously do more of that. So you should see a little more flatness of the saddle. We have some contracts roll off that we were sharing in some price benefits of higher frac spreads, but now it's going to be steadier with the volumes going through the systems. Anything to add, Jeremy?

No.

Ladies and gentlemen, I'm showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Willie Chiang for closing remarks.

Well, thanks so much, everyone, for dialing in and your continued interest in Plains. We'll give you more updates in February, but we'll see you on the road, and have a nice weekend, everyone. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.