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PTLO · Portillo's Inc.
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$3.53 -0.02 (-0.56%) At close · Sep 30
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All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2026 Q2

Portillo's Inc. (PTLO) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Concluded Aug 5, 2026 Audio replay
Aug 5, 2026 40:39 57 turns
Period
FY2026 Q2
Runtime
40:39
Sources
4 artifacts

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40:39 Audio
Operator

Good afternoon. Welcome to Portela's second quarter 2026 Earnings Conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please key in star and then zero on your telephone keypad. Please note that this event is being recorded. I will now hand you over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Chris Brandon. Please come ahead.

Chris Brandon Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Portillo's second quarter 2026 earnings call. With me today are Brett Patterson, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Pamela Smith, Interim Chief Financial Officer. You will find our 10Q and earnings press release at investors.portillos.com. Any commentary made here about our future results and business conditions are forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance. We do not update these forward-looking statements unless required by law. Our 10-Q identifies risk factors that may cause our actual results to vary materially from these forward-looking statements. Today's earnings call will make reference to non-GAAP financial measures, which are not an alternative to GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most comparable GAAP counterparts are included in this morning's posted materials. Finally, after we deliver our prepared remarks, we will be happy to take questions from our covering sell-side analysts. And with that, I will turn the call over to Brett.

Thanks, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. Quarter 2 demonstrated the strength and resilience of the Portillo's brand. While we lapped significant prior-year promotional and one-time activities that we chose not to repeat, underlying sales remained resilient, reinforcing the enduring appeal of our brand and the strength of our restaurant teams. Over the past several months, we have taken meaningful steps to strengthen operations, improve our business model and unit economics, and build a more sustainable platform for profitable new unit growth. This work is grounded in three strategic pillars we introduced last quarter, operational excellence, integrated marketing, and disciplined development. I'll cover the progress we've made, how we're approaching the next six months, and the key takeaways from the second quarter before Pam Smith walks through our results in more detail. Before we get into that, I'm excited to provide an update on our finance leadership transition. As you may have seen yesterday, we announced that Kevin Kalikak will join Portillo's as Chief Financial Officer. We are thrilled to welcome such an accomplished leader to the team. His leadership will be essential as we continue strengthening our financial rigor and executing our growth strategy. I also want to thank Pam for stepping in to lead our finance function over the last quarter. She has been a great stabilizing force throughout this transition, and I'm grateful for her steady hand and partnership. Turning to the business, the work we completed in recent months was part of a broader strategic reset designed to strengthen our foundation, improve operating discipline, and support long-term profitable growth, all while running great restaurants. The actions we took across our cost structure, development model, and operating approach are connected by a common objective, building a more focused and scalable platform for the First, we made the purposeful decision to simplify our G&A structure so we can operate with greater focus, move more nimbly, and better support our restaurant teams. After the quarter, we implemented a reduction in force that reduced our corporate headquarters with no direct impact on restaurant-level team members. While this action will create G&A savings, the primary objective was to align our team's resources and decision-making more directly with the priorities that matter most to our operators and guests. Pam will discuss the financial impact in more detail. Second, we launched an initiative to capture meaningful efficiencies across our supply chain and indirect spending categories. We expect those savings to begin contributing this year and build over time, supporting improved profitability as we scale the business. Third, we reviewed our development function end-to-end and identified opportunities to simplify processes, reduce costs, and improve capital discipline. These changes will begin benefiting the class of 2027 restaurants, while our future prototype design work will support a significantly more efficient development model for 2028 and beyond. We also built a stronger and more robust real estate forecast model to improve site selection, better understand new restaurant performance, and guide future capital deployment. Early learning is already helping us understand actual performance against prior expectations for recent restaurant classes, and will also sharpen future development decisions. Taken together, these actions are expected to generate annualized run rate savings of approximately $10 to $15 million while creating a more rigorous platform for future unit growth. As we discussed last quarter, our strategy is anchored in three pillars, operational excellence, integrated and targeted marketing, and disciplined development. Together, these pillars are designed to improve restaurant-level performance, engage guests by leveraging sharper insights and create value through better site selection, right-size prototypes, and lower build costs. To support these pillars, we commissioned formal studies in three areas, customer segmentation, brand perception and positioning, and menu satisfaction. Those insights, combined with feedback from our operators, are sharpening our approach to operations, targeted customer engagement, and future restaurant design. One key takeaway is clear. Portillo's has exceptional brand affinity in Chicago and beyond, along with differentiated brand positioning that we believe can travel well across existing and new markets. I'd also like to highlight a few other actions from the court that support this broader strategy. We strengthen our culinary function by adding Christopher Hansen as executive chef. Christopher brings deep restaurant experience in culinary strategy and development, and his leadership will help us advance menu innovation as well as culinary creativity, quality, and consistency. We also restructured our development team and processes and engaged a design firm to advance our next prototype. That work is guided by our brand research and focused on three priorities, lowering build costs, improving returns, and amplifying the elements that matter most to the Portillo's experience. Lastly, we opened our first airport location at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport. At under 3,100 square feet and a kitchen 25% smaller than our former prototypes, this location incorporates equipment enhancements that will allow us to operate more efficiently within a smaller footprint. Before I turn it over to Pam, I want to briefly touch on our second quarter results and how we are thinking about the business as we move through the back half of the year. Regarding sales performance, several items created meaningful same-restaurant sales headwinds in the quarter. Our decision to not repeat last year's buy one, get one beef promotion, the discontinuation of the prior-year breakfast initiative, and cannibalization represented approximately 250 basis points of headwind. As we move through the back half of the year, we will remain focused on profitable transaction growth and avoid aggressive discounted activity as we lapped significant prior-year promotions, including 50% off burgers and buy one, get one free sandwiches. With that backdrop, we now expect adjusted EBITDA of $92 million to $96 million for the year. This updated outlook reflects deliberate choices to protect guest value by underpricing inflation, avoiding aggressive low-margin promotional activity, and re-forecasting our non-comp restaurants based on recent performance and realistic expectations. In summary, over the last quarter, we aligned the organization to better support our restaurants, took meaningful actions to strengthen the business and sharpen our focus on profitable growth. We captured savings with immediate impact, completed brand research that is shaping our future roadmap, improved capital discipline for the 2027 pipeline and beyond, and advanced prototype redesign work to support stronger cash-on-cash returns. I am confident that our sharper focus and more deliberate execution will position Portillo's for more durable, profitable growth over time. We look forward to sharing more detail on our strategy soon. Lastly, I want to thank our operators and team members who bring Portillo's energy, hospitality, and culture to life every day. Their focus and execution are what makes this progress possible. With that, I'll turn it over to Pam to walk through our second quarter results in more detail. Pam?

Thanks, Brett. As Brett noted, second quarter sales were resilient even with the lap of breakfast, bogo beef, and cannibalization while the team executed meaningful work to position the company for a strategic reset. Perks continued to perform well, with Q2 delivering the highest sales penetration in Perks history at 15.1%. This platform will continue to be used for surprise and delight offers to reward our most loyal customers. Now on to our Q2 results. Revenues were $199 million, reflecting a 5.6% increase versus last year. Revenue growth was driven by the addition of non-comp restaurants, which contributed $13.3 million of the year-over-year increase. Same restaurant sales declined 1.2%, reflecting a 3.4% decrease in transactions, partially offset by a 2.2% increase in average check. Higher average check was driven by an approximate 2.6% increase in menu prices, partially offset by a 0.4% decrease in product mix. As previously mentioned, Q2 had combined traffic headwinds of approximately 250 basis points from promotional activity, the breakfast pilot in the prior year, and cannibalization from new restaurants. Thus far into the third quarter, we are running slightly positive same restaurant sales, and we are mindful of expected headwinds from promotional activity and cannibalization throughout August and September. We entered the second quarter with approximately 1.7% of carryover pricing from 2025. Approximately 1% of this carryover pricing rolled off in early April, and the remaining 0.7% lapsed in June. In mid-April, we implemented a 2% price increase across select menu categories. Absent further pricing actions, we expect approximately a 2% menu pricing benefit in the third quarter and anticipate that offers within PERC could have a modest impact on realized pricing. Turning to costs, food, beverage, and packaging costs increased to 35% of revenue in the quarter from 33.8% last year. This increase was driven primarily by the addition of new restaurants and higher commodity costs of 7%, led by beef and produce, partially offset by an increase in average check. We still expect commodity inflation to be consistent with our original guidance for the fiscal year of mid-single digits. Labor expense was flat versus prior year at 25.7%, primarily due to wage inflation and deleverage from our newer restaurant openings, partially offset by labor efficiencies. Other operating expenses increased $1.4 million, or 6.5%, primarily driven by the opening of new restaurants, partially offset by lower utilities and insurance costs. As a percentage of revenue, other operating expenses were 11.7%, slightly up from 11.6% last year. Occupancy expenses increased 60 basis points, or $1.7 million, versus last year. This was driven by the opening of new restaurants, higher occupancy costs, and deleverage from new restaurant openings. Restaurant-level adjusted EBITDA decreased $1.2 million to $43.2 million, with margins declining approximately 190 basis points to 21.7%. This was mainly driven by food cost inflation not being fully offset by pricing and non-comp restaurant underperformance in the second quarter. G&A expenses increased to $19.6 million, or 9.8% of revenue in the quarter. This is up from $18.8 million, or 10% of revenue in the prior year. This increase was driven by higher professional fees, including $0.9 million of dead site costs. Pre-opening expenses were $0.9 million in the quarter compared to $1.7 million last year. This reflects the timing and scale of activities related to our planned restaurant openings, including expansion into new markets. Adjusted EBITDA of $29.8 million, or 15% of revenue, is slightly below last year's result of $30.1 million, or 16% of revenue. Interest expense was $5.7 million in the quarter, flat to prior year. Q2 income tax expense was $1.8 million, a decrease of $1.9 million from last year. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 19.8% versus 26.8% in the prior year, reflecting changes in our valuation allowance related to equity-based compensation expense. We expect to open one additional location in the fourth quarter of 2026, which will be in downtown Chicago and is our second in-line format restaurant. This will bring our total restaurant openings in 2026 to eight, in line with our original guidance for the fiscal year. Cash provided by operating activities increased 22.4% year-over-year to $35.1 million year-to-date, primarily reflecting favorable timing of operating assets and liabilities. We ended the quarter with $21.3 million in cash. We had $97 million outstanding on our revolver, total net debt of $338 million, and approximately $49 million of remaining revolver capacity. We are pleased to see the balance sheet in a much healthier position and will utilize our cash available from the recent shift toward free cash flow positivity to pay down debt and reduce our revolver. Thank you for your time today. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be conducting the question and answer session. Please note, for participants making use of speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pause it before pressing the star keys. If you'd like to ask a question, please key in star and then one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation turn will indicate that your line is in the question queue.

Operator

You may key in star and in two to leave the question queue.

Operator

Our first question comes from Margaret May Binstock of Wolf Research. Please go ahead.

Margaret May Binstock Analyst — Wolfe Research

Thanks for taking my question. Brad, I just want to ask, on the last call, you talked a little bit about the brand work as the input that's needed to come back before the strategy starts to take shape. Now that you've done some of that, can you tell us a little bit about the initial learnings coming out of it? And then I also wanted to follow up your five months into the job now. Are there any kind of broader observations on the brand and the business from the time that you've spent now in the restaurants and with the team? Thank you.

Hey, Margaret, thank you for the question. So, you know, as it relates to the research, you know, going back to what we talked last time, we had, you know, three really landmark studies for the brand that we haven't done. The first one was on guest segmentation to really identify, you know, who our target customer is and who we need to activate against. We did a quantum call study on brand perception that led to our brand positioning work. And the third piece of work was our menu satisfaction study that we hadn't done. So, look, I will tell you without giving away the full strategy, because our plan is in the very near future to have a fulsome rollout, is, one, we've clearly identified who our target segmentation is for our customers. We've got, you know, we believe real growth opportunity in a couple of different target areas. The second, I'm very excited because we've got very clear brand positioning. It was very clear to us after this research and what we know intuitively in talking to our operators and teams what our brand strengths really are and those competitive advantages. So we've now really locked in on what we believe is a really solid brand positioning. And the third piece, and this is still kind of coming in as we speak, but, you know, looking at our food to make sure that, you know, we kind of honor what matters most to the Portillo's guest and our legacy items and innovation of the future is quality and abundance. And so we've got really clear line of sight now to where we're really winning on that and then where we have opportunities. And so bringing on Christopher as our culinary lead chef will be really imperative as we move forward to, you know, going after some of that work. So, again, I think I would say to sum it up, we've got really strong clarity now around the brand, and that will take shape in our growth strategy work will roll out soon. As far as how after my first five months, I would say still, like I mentioned last time, very few surprises. It was, you know, to see the brand research and realize that we've got a brand that many of you know and people certainly that are familiar with the brand is a very special brand. The guest loyalty, I would say fanaticism, kind of brand love or net promoter score is as high as anybody in the industry once they get to know the brand. And so we know outside of Chicago, it absolutely just is strong. It's just how we get them in the door the first time to hook them. so that was that was more clarity and it was good to see that outside of Chicago that we've got that resonance as well and I would say so it's not surprising but I think where the work really has to be is we just have to continue to build better business disciplines and make sure that look we have a very clear strategy of focus strategy and very resilient disciplines towards achieving in that strategy, and there will be a very bright future for this brand.

Operator

Thanks, Rob.

Operator

The next question comes from Sarah Sinatore of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Aisling Analyst — Bank of America

Hi. Good afternoon. This is Aisling on for Sarah. My question is just on the guidance. You lowered restaurant-level margin guidance roughly 75-bits at the midpoint. You know, I just wanted to get your thoughts on what changed versus the prior view, And is this lower margin outlook more of a function of, you know, weaker than expected sales leverage or commodity pressure? Or is this just kind of the lower near-term margin baseline as you work through the reset? Just any color here would be helpful.

Yeah, great. Thank you for your question. You know, what I would say is that with the guidance tonight, you know, one of my first earnings call, the question was asked, and we, you know, kind of we reaffirmed at that point with an understanding, you know, I hadn't had much time to really get under the hood of the brand and look at it. And we certainly had an opportunity to do that over the last 13 weeks. So I'd say the guidance adjustment was really – it was in a couple of areas. And one is the non-comp restaurants. We just had to reset and adjust the non-comp locations based on what was in kind of, you know, the original guidance versus where we see them today from a performance standpoint and be more realistic. So there was a non-comp adjustment, particularly in our Texas, Arizona market. it. You know, and the other piece was, yeah, there's been a little bit more commodity inflation in the second quarter. However, we do think that'll moderate Q3 and Q4 and will be on our guidance. So I would say it had more to do with just kind of resetting that non-comp base and what we've seen thus far and giving ourselves some room there to make sure that, you know, we have time to operate those a little bit differently than maybe we have in the past, which will come the light more later this year and early next year.

Operator

Great. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Gregory Frankfurt of Guggenheim. Please go ahead.

Arian Reza Analyst — Guggenheim

Hi, this is Arian Reza for Greg. I wanted to ask your thoughts on beef market and the outlook until the next year. And I'm sorry if I missed that. It looks like a two-year stack is decelerating. And how much of the miss is actual the beef lap, the buy one, get one beef lap versus the structural traffic softness. I'm just trying to kind of gauge the underlying trend, extra emotional distortions. Thank you.

So I just want to clarify, is that two separate questions, one on beef commodity and the other on underlying trends, or are those together?

Arian Reza Analyst — Guggenheim

Yes, correct.

Okay.

Arian Reza Analyst — Guggenheim

Two separate, yeah, thank you.

Two separate, got you. Okay, yeah, thank you. Just wanted clarity on that. beef?

So with regard to beef commodity costs, we did see a higher impact in the second quarter, but we are 85% hedged in Q3 and Q4, and the rest of our basket is about 63% locked. And so we are feeling very comfortable about where costs will be for the rest of the year and expect to hit guidance by the end of this year?

Yeah, I'll take, you know, the underlying trends and what were reported, you know, for quarter two, we talked about there's really three significant headwinds we were lapping. You know, one was the buy one, get one beef in May, and that was, you know, that was a significant headwind at a deep discount that we chose that, you know, that's not part of our strategy going forward. The second one was we're lapping the breakfast initiative for last year, which, you know, is anywhere between, you know, 70 to 100 basis points, depending on the period for the company. And the third was, you know, we, I mentioned in the, you know, the script that we have a new kind of real estate forecast model. And then out of that model, we've learned a lot about our newer markets, as well as cannibalization impact. And I think one of the great things about this brand is, as you all know, is people will drive a long way to come to Portillo's. And, you know, we see it when we open Kennesaw. We see it in a lot of our openings. You know, the downside of that is if you impact a restaurant with another location fairly close by, there's significant cannibalization. And that's really what we've seen to great detail in a couple of markets. So, you know, those three things had a pretty profound headwind in quarter two. But, you know, to give some solace that this is an underlying trend, as we mentioned in July, with less noise from last year. We still have the breakfast lap and a few other things, but we are positive quarter to date and some markets that are performing really well.

Operator

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Brian Mullen of Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Alison Arvsterman Analyst — Piper Sandler

Hello, this is Alison Arvsterman for Brian. Thanks for the question. I wanted to ask about the ongoing operational improvements around throughput but in labor, what have you seen working so far in the first half? Has anything surprised you, and how did these learnings inform the second half and beyond plans? Thank you.

Hey, Allison, thanks for the question. I would say the focus, we mentioned this on the last call, of kind of our Texas market or some of our lower volume restaurants, that we had some productivity initiatives that we were working towards, and we've seen those come to fruition. as evidenced by our labor percent of total sales stayed flat to last year, even with wage inflation and non-comp restaurants. So we've seen productivity in those markets. What I could tell you is we're now getting learning from our Dallas-Fort Worth location where we've got a much smaller kitchen, we've designed it differently from a layout standpoint, and we have new equipment, which will generate future efficiencies in the backhouse productivity. We're going to take the next step with that, and we're going to continue to deploy that model into some of our Texas locations and the kind of current prototype to see what kind of benefit we can get there. So that's how we're looking at productivity is really we've got, I'd say, very good productivity in most of our locations. It's just when we hit certain volume bands, we've got some opportunities to tighten that up, and we'll take those learnings from what we've done earlier in the year as well as the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport.

Operator

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Dennis Geiger of UBS.

Nick Ilan Analyst — UBS

Please go ahead. Hey, good afternoon, guys. This is Nick Ilan for Dennis. Thanks for taking that question. So I know you briefly touched on menu innovation and the prepared remarks. Just on that topic, we saw the limited time Dr. Pepper Shake was available starting yesterday, if I'm not mistaken. And so we're just curious on the appetite to leave beverages and expand the offering to include refreshers, dirty sodas, or any of your drinks. Has that been tested before? Is it in test? And I guess is that something that's within the plan?

Yeah, thanks for the question, Akhil. I would say, you know, one of the reasons we brought on Christopher, Chef Christopher, was exactly that, right? We know beverages are certainly really popular across the industry right now. They're turning well with a lot of different cohorts. And so we've got that opportunity because we have equity, you know, in beverages with the shakes, the cake shakes. And, you know, coming off our recent menu set, we know those score very well from a satisfaction standpoint. So that's why we leaned in on this innovation with Dr. Pepper, which has been trending. So you'll see over time there will be further innovation around that beverage platform, And I think it will link very well to the customer segments that we're going to be, you know, attached to and building towards. Awesome. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Jim Solera of Stevens, Inc. Please go ahead.

Tyler Prowse Analyst — Stevens, Inc.

Hi, this is Tyler Prowse on for Jim. Thanks for taking our question. Was the transaction softness broad-based across your entire footprint or are there areas of outperformance? And to what extent are elevated gas prices driving demand headwinds across your markets? You know, if so, are there any ways to offset that impact?

I'll speak a little bit to transaction. As Brett mentioned before, we were lapping a bugled beef promotion last year. And so So as we chose not to chase a deep discount promotion this year, our transactions are down, and that's essentially what we expected because we were not going to chase the deep discounts. In regard to the overall market in terms of what consumers are facing, I believe it is very difficult for consumers these days, but that's part of the reason why we are hopefully trying to focus on giving them the proper value equation and a proper and consistent and guests perform or experience every time they enter one of our restaurants?

Yeah, Tyra, and I would say, too, you know, as far as transactions go, we did see markets that were certainly stronger, and one thing we're proud about right now is our Chicagoland is performing very well. You know, it's, you know, and I would say there are markets outside of Chicago, but as we know with the size of our business and what percentage of it in Chicago, you know, they perform very well in quarter two and continue to perform very well at the beginning of quarter three. I think those markets that have been a little more challenged, we talked about those headwinds, but they also face a heavier cannibalization than maybe some of our core markets have.

Operator

Jim, does that conclude your questions?

Tyler Prowse Analyst — Stevens, Inc.

Yes, thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of J.P. Wollum of Roth Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

J.P. Wollum Analyst — ROTH Capital Partners

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I want to maybe focus on kind of non-Chicagoland, but you mentioned, you know, sort of right-sizing the expectations for the non-comp base units. I'm just wondering if, you know, can you quantify sort of where the more tenured Texas and maybe you can include Arizona in that unit economics sit today relative to the Chicago base? It's just trying to get an understanding of, you know, your expectations and whether that's shifted from kind of the former team's expectations for new markets. And I have one follow-up.

Yeah, no, let me – I'll talk about the non-comp a little bit broader, right? I think when we look at – and this is particular in Texas and now part of Arizona, part of Phoenix, I would say there's three factors that are really contributing to the, you know, contributing to the underperformance. One is, look, candidly, we just built too many too quickly. You know, in Dallas, we built 12 and three and a half years. In Houston, we built six and 16 months, which that, you know, with this brand, as the more we learn and the model we're using now that we know is, you know, quite a bit more accurate, that's not something that we would repeat going forward. Number two, I mean, full candid locations and sites that we've opened in those markets, they don't model appropriately right now for sales and returns. So based on what we know today, there's certainly, you know, we would look at both those markets in a very different way in Dallas and Houston. And third, the build costs, you know, that we went in those market with are truly prohibitive to generating a reasonable return based on those sales. And again, that's something that, you know, as we move forward with development, we can't do. So I would tell you, yeah, it's had a profound impact by having that many restaurants and that, you know, that size market and it happens so quickly that it's certainly put pressure on our restaurant level margins. You know, and as I mentioned on the last call, you know, in order for us to saw this, we're doing a full assessment of all of our real estate locations. And we'll make the right strategic decision for the business that's going to support, you know, our shareholders and the company.

J.P. Wollum Analyst — ROTH Capital Partners

Great. And maybe that kind of leads into just the quick follow-up, but I think last quarter you talked about actually pruning some of the leases you had signed, and just curious if there's any update as, you know, we think about kind of 27, but have you cut further in that pipeline, or are you and Jennifer actively beginning to add to the pipeline?

Yeah, we feel good about where we're at in 27 when we came out and said four to six last time, so, you know, we're still finalizing that right now. Obviously, you know, the clock's ticking. I'm sure before next time we get together, we'll have that locked. And now we're starting to actively look into 28. So we do have some sites already identified for 28, which our plan is Q1 of 2028. We will launch the brand new prototype that's being designed right now, which will be, you know, a, you know, taking our 2.0 and continue to further reduce footprint and also look at the kitchen layout to use new equipment designed to be more efficient and be able to execute, you know, high volumes at a much smaller and cost-efficient unit.

J.P. Wollum Analyst — ROTH Capital Partners

Great. Thank you, and best of luck going forward.

Thanks, JP.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Andrew Tompkins of DA Davidson. Please go ahead. Hi, this is Andrew.

Patrick Johnson Analyst — Baird

I was just wondering, with a number of additional openings in Texas this year, what have you learned from this year's Texas class regarding site quality, productivity, and awareness?

Yeah, you know, we did, yeah, most of our growth, as you know, was Texas this year, and so, you know, again, I mentioned on the last call, right, we brought Jennifer in as our chief development officer. We've done a really, an end-to-end scrub of all the processes, Andrew, and, you know, one of that was the, you know, how we were using a forecasting model before to kind to get to what we believe sales were going to be. And I would say our biggest learning now is that model has absolutely reinforced the performance we're seeing in Texas is what would we expect using this model, right? So I'd say it's just, you know, it's a much more sophisticated model that we're using today. A lot of different attributes have been plugged in. And I'd say we know now much more about why sites work well, such as Kennesaw, Georgia, who, you know, continues to perform very well. Shirts are opening in May in San Antonio, is doing very, very well, right? And so, when you look at those side attributes, we now know it's not a portability issue, which I know has been a lot of question, and the research confirms that as well. It really comes down to a real estate strategy. So, you know, I would say what we learned is, you know, if we had things to do ever again, we wouldn't, you know, make a lot of those decisions. But, But, you know, we were already committed, and we're going to figure out the best way to move forward with those locations here very shortly.

Patrick Johnson Analyst — Baird

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Patrick Johnson of Baird. Please go ahead.

Patrick Johnson Analyst — Baird

Thanks for the question, guys. This is Patrick on for David Tarantino of Baird. Brett, I was encouraged to hear that you're in positive territory to start the quarter, And I was hoping you could delve a bit deeper into the levers you think you have to drive that transaction recovery or sustain a transaction recovery in the second half here. And just how are you thinking about maybe the most impactful initiatives that you guys can deploy? And I know you mentioned that there are continued headwinds in September and October. Is there any way to maybe quantify that relative to what you guys lapped here in the second quarter as well?

Yeah, let me – I'll tell you what, you know, we're going to combat some of those headwinds with is, you know, when we think about, you know, our three pillars of our strategy, the first one is operational excellence. And I would say that Tony Darden and his team are doing a really good job of identifying some very specific KPIs that will help drive traffic in the restaurants. And so his team's narrowed down in a couple that we've done a lot of research to find out, you know, where we might be having experiences that are creating low satisfaction or low intent to return. And we're buttoning up that now with really intense focus. So I'd say operationally, you've got an opportunity to close the gap in some of those areas. The second is, you know, the marketing piece. I would say, you know, generally we've been fairly underspent on marketing. We're very fortunate to have a brand with such high awareness where the majority of our restaurants are that we haven't had to spend a ton of marketing. But there's always that avenue, right, is to say if we wanted to spend more for high ROI marketing, we could. We know with food innovation, we, you know, the Chardonnay dog that we launched in quarter two performed very well for us. So because we haven't had a lot of innovation in the past, I think, you know, it creates additional visitation for our core consumers. And so there's that opportunity we're working on right now with, again, bringing on Christopher. We've got some ideas for innovation for the rest of the year. So I'd say that's how we're going to combat it. What we're not going to do right now is we haven't really disclosed exactly what our guidance is for sales and what the size of lap are going to be. But I would say it's probably not as significant as the buy one, get one beef and breakfast and cannibalization that we had in quarter two, but it will be fairly significant. If I had to guess, it would be more than 200 basis points ahead as we lap those discounts.

Patrick Johnson Analyst — Baird

Great. That's helpful. Thank you. And then you mentioned there were some significant opportunities for supply chain savings, and I was hoping maybe you could delve into that a little bit more just in terms of what those specific opportunities are, maybe what the timeline is on execution. And could you clarify if the $10 to $15 million in savings from the actions you cited, if the supply chain savings were included in that or is that incremental to that figure?

Yeah, the $10 to $15 is the combination of both the G&A reduction as well as the indirect spend and supply chain. So, that would be all three of those. And, you know, it's a wide range right now because we're in the early stages of the indirect spend and supply chain. You know, but what I would tell you is I believe, you know, we'll have a real clear line of sight to that before our next call about really what that total is. And look, as you, I think, you know, you can expect sometimes when companies grow really quickly and all the focus is really on development and getting new restaurants in the dirt, sometimes there's opportunities that are left behind. And I would say my earlier comment on just really having clear priorities and a very disciplined approach to our business processes. The supply chain and indirect spends fall into that category. And so we'll see some immediate benefits, you know, even recognizing some in quarter three, but, you know, quarter four. So your annual run rate is going to be in that $10 to $15 million right now of pure flow through from a savings standpoint.

Patrick Johnson Analyst — Baird

Great. That's helpful. Thanks, guys.

Thank you.

Operator

Well, ladies and gentlemen, with no further questions in the question queue, have reached the end of the question and answer session. That concludes this event. Thank you for attending and I will now disconnect your lines.

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