Rli Corp Q3 FY2022 Earnings Call

Good morning and welcome to the RLI Corp. Third Quarter Earnings Teleconference. After management’s prepared remarks, we will open the conference up for questions and answers. Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, RLI management may make comments about beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain factors and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the risk factors described in the company's various SEC filings, including in the Annual Report on Form 10-K as supplemented in Forms 10-Q, all of which should be reviewed carefully. The company has filed a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing third quarter results. During the call, RLI management may refer to operating earnings and earnings per share from operations, which are non-GAAP measures of financial results. RLI's operating earnings and earnings per share from operations consist of net earnings after the elimination of after-tax realized gains or losses and after-tax unrealized gains or losses on equity securities. Additionally, operating earnings and operating EPS exclude equity and earnings of Maui Jim and related tax issues related to the sale of RLI's investments. RLI's management believes that measures are useful in gauging core operating performance across reporting periods but may not be comparable to other companies' definitions of operating earnings. The Form 8-K contains a reconciliation between operating earnings and net earnings. The Form 8-K and press release are available on the company's website at www.rlicorp.com. I will now turn the conference over to RLI's Chief Investment Officer and Treasurer, Mr. Aaron Diefenthaler. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Victoria. Good morning everyone. Welcome to RLI's third quarter earnings call for 2022. Joining us today are Craig Kliethermes, President and CEO; Jen Klobnak, Chief Operating Officer; and Todd Bryant, Chief Financial Officer. Per our usual process, Todd will lead off and walk through financial results for the quarter. Craig and Jen will offer commentary on our product portfolio and current market conditions. We will then take your questions, and Craig will close with some final thoughts. Todd?

Thanks, Aaron. Good morning everyone. Yesterday, we reported third quarter operating earnings of $0.50 per share, which were negatively impacted by losses from Hurricane Ian. Apart from Ian, underwriting results in the current year remained strong, and benefits from prior year's reserve releases were accretive to earnings. All-in-all, we experienced 13% topline growth and a combined ratio of 97% for the quarter. Combined with a very strong first half of the year, our year-to-date combined ratio was 85.3%. Investment income advanced 19% in the quarter as reinvestment rates continue to move higher, and operating cash flow remains strong, supportive of incremental investments in the portfolio. I'll discuss Maui Jim in a minute, with net realized gains of $573 million for the quarter reflecting the sales of its minority investment. From the net unrealized loss perspective, equity securities declined $26 million during the quarter as market volatility continued. Craig and Jen will give some color on the market landscape shortly, but at a high level, all three segments experienced growth as we continue to benefit from favorable conditions in most areas of our business. From an underwriting income perspective, the quarter's combined ratio was 97% compared to 94.6% a year ago, with both periods impacted by elevated hurricane losses. Hurricane Ian losses in the quarter are within our pre-announced range and totaled $40 million net of reinsurance. $33 million of that is from our property segment and $7 million from casualty, where a number of our package policies are reported. Net of bonus-related impacts, the event totaled $34.8 million or $0.60 per share net of tax and added 12 points to the quarter's combined ratio. From a loss perspective, all three segments experienced favorable prior year's reserve development. Casualty experienced $28 million in favorable development, with notable contributions from general liability, commercial access, Executive Products, small commercial, and miscellaneous professional liability. Property posted $3 million in favorable emergence, with the largest benefit from our Marine business. In surety, commercial and miscellaneous were responsible for the bulk of that segment's $2 million in positive development during the quarter. Moving to expenses, compared to last year, our quarterly expense ratio increased 2.5 points to 40.4%. This result was impacted by increased bonuses and incentive-related accruals. On a year-to-date basis, our expense ratio was 39.2%. Turning to investments, total written performance was minus 3.4% during the quarter and minus 13.5% on a year-to-date basis. Balance portfolios continue to be challenged by the current environment as well as stocks and bonds trading lower in price. As we discussed in our second quarter call, the majority of these declines remain unrealized without the need to sell significant portions of the portfolio. Strong operating cash flow and an increase in fixed income yields have offered welcomed opportunities to purchase high-quality assets that underpin investment income. Today, new money yields are achievable in the 4.5% range without having to reach down to the credit spectrum or for longer maturities. Moving to other investments, we recorded an $18 million loss in the quarter from our equity earnings of Maui Jim, largely driven by transaction-related expenses incurred by Maui Jim from the company's sale. As previously announced, we received $686.6 million in exchange for our shares in Maui Jim. Final proceeds remain subject to customary post-closing working capital and other adjustments, which could modestly increase this amount. Prior to the sale, our carrying value of Maui Jim was $108.4 million, inclusive of the quarter's loss. Our net earnings, including realized gains, losses in the quarter, taxes, and other sales-related amounts reflect $437.7 million or $9.56 per share from the sale of this minority investment. Lastly, book value per share was $30.72 at the end of the quarter, up 60% from year-end and heavily influenced by the realized gain of Maui Jim. This transaction generated a significant amount of capital. As always, our first preference is to deploy capital in support of our business, which we have been doing. We regularly evaluate our capital position relative to the opportunities we've seen as we look forward. This is the timing we have historically evaluated any excess capital position and we expect to follow the same approach in the fourth quarter of this year. All-in-all, a very good quarter and strong first nine months of the year. With that, I'll turn the call over to Craig.

Thank you, Todd, and Aaron, and good morning, everyone. A good quarter all things considered. First and foremost, our hearts are with our policyholders and their families who've been affected by Hurricane Ian. Our talented claims team is on the ground and helping them as I speak. We never lose sight of our purpose or our promise to pay for covered fortuitous losses in exchange for a fair premium. This is our time to fulfill our obligations and help insurers recover and restore their businesses as quickly as possible. This is what we're focused on delivering. Stepping up and paying for what we owe helps customers regain their livelihood and eliminates the needless involvement of public adjusters, litigation costs, and reputational damage frequently cast upon our industry after such an event. We are doing our part to help our customers and hope the rest of the industry is focused on the same. Despite this significant event, we were able to report an underwriting profit in the quarter. It's a testament to our diverse product portfolio at both the business unit level and overall. For any product experiencing profitability challenges, we can typically count on several other uncorrelated products that are performing well to counterbalance the underperforming ones. This quarter, our E&S Casualty, Executive Products, and Surety were some of our largest contributors, helping us maintain underwriting profitability. At the same time, we were able to grow across all segments, resulting in total growth of 13% for the quarter and 17% year-to-date. All segments remain profitable year-to-date. We continue to see opportunities to grow profitably. Industry losses from Ian may lead to an even harder catastrophe-exposed property market with tight capacity going forward. This may spill over into some casualty lines. Our strong balance sheet, high-performing businesses, and broad portfolio of specialty products positions us well to take advantage of any disruption that may occur. I'll now turn it over to Jen for her comments by segment.

Thanks, Craig. I'll start with the property segments. Premium grew 40%, and the property segments, including an 8% positive rate change this quarter. The segment is led by E&S property, which is also the largest contributor to our catastrophe portfolio in terms of premium and exposure. Hurricane rates were up 25% in the quarter, and we continue to push on terms and conditions such as deductibles. To offer some perspective, we started achieving rate increases on hurricane business in 2018. Since January 1, 2019, the cumulative rate increase on our hurricane book is 110%, and new business pricing is higher than renewal. Additionally, we have been steadily improving terms and conditions. Currently, we can write as much business as we want, but we manage exposure growth by continuing to focus on our geographical spread of risk and providing lower limits on new business than on renewal accounts. The majority of our Hurricane Ian loss occurred in the E&S Property division. The loss estimate accounts for inflation and potential litigation and is based on observations and discussions with our insurers and our producers through site visits over the last couple of weeks. We have been able to visit most of the sites with larger limits exposed and have advanced money to help with mitigation to respond to our insurers immediately. The storm made landfall in one of the industry's peak catastrophe zones, which is also one of our highest exposed geographies. Despite the estimated Ian loss, the E&S Property division by itself still posted an underwriting profit through the first nine months of 2022. It should be noted that due to the storm, there are non-cancellation rules in place in Florida through the end of November. Our underwriters have leaned into the Florida property market opportunity this year and recognize that direct terms will likely improve given the posturing of the reinsurance market. Our property reinsurance coverage comes up for renewal at January 1, and we are expecting some rate increases. We manage our business to ensure we can entertain new opportunities with our producer partners through all cycles. We will adjust our appetite based on the availability and cost of capacity and are prepared and willing to walk away from business if the market becomes irrational. We have additional businesses in this segment that are achieving profitability and worth mentioning. The Marine Division grew 25%, while producing an underwriting profit. We've been obtaining notable rate increases for four years. In the third quarter, rates increased 6%. We're seeing more opportunities by expanding our team and staying in front of our brokers. That same customer service spills over into our Hawaii Homeowners book, where we grew by 17%. We celebrated our 25th year serving the Hawaii Homeowners market with an appreciation event in Honolulu for over 160 of our partner agencies in September. Our local Hawaii presence and underwriting and claims service continue to translate as a positive result for us and for our customers. Although the property segment reported a 110% combined ratio in the quarter, it was an improvement from last year's third quarter, and the segment is on pace to outperform last year's results with an excellent 82% combined ratio year-to-date. Turning to our Surety segment, premium was up 12% in the quarter with all products contributing. We continue to see the impact of inflation on project values, which drives some of the growth in our contract surety premium. We have added staff in the segment and are seeing more opportunities through cross-marketing initiatives. We continue to monitor this segment closely given ongoing shortages in the construction labor market, increasing interest rates that can impact project funding and timing, and overall economic conditions. Although this market continues to be highly competitive, we achieved an 81% combined ratio, and will continue to selectively find opportunities in surety. Finally, Casualty premium grew 3% in the quarter, led by E&S general liability, which was up 25%. This construction-focused business is truly competitive, especially in the Northeast, where several carriers offer broader terms and conditions. Our growth has been driven by opportunities outside of the Northeast. Our Transportation Group experienced 10% growth in the quarter, driven by the public auto product, which continues to see more buses in service compared to last year's third quarter. Both the public auto and specialty commercial auto markets are stable, and we're able to find opportunities to obtain appropriate terms and conditions. The Truck portion of our transportation book is still very competitive with multiple sources of new capacity that have emerged in the last 18 months. Finally, our personal umbrella product has grown 19% in the quarter as we continue to strengthen relationships with all of our distribution channels. We are watching growth closely given severity trends and the lag in state insurance department rate approval. We work with our producers to navigate the opportunities in states where it takes longer to adjust our pricing terms and conditions. The growth in the Casualty segment was offset by our Executive Products group from cyber and transactional liability, which has almost run its course. We are also experiencing strong headwinds from brokers on public D&O and side business where they have obtained access to more than a dozen new markets, including many MGAs over the last 12 months. We have adjusted our underwriting in this changing market, resulting in a 3% rate decrease for the quarter. We are moving to another layer within the insurance tower for some accounts, even walking away when the terms become unsustainable. Excluding the impact from this business unit, the Casualty segment's premium would have grown 10% in the quarter. Overall, Casualty segment rates increased 3% for the quarter. The Casualty loss ratio was elevated as Hurricane Ian losses and our general binding authority book are included in the segment. The disruption in this space is allowing us to implement some notable changes. We continue to raise rates and tighten terms and conditions for all coverages for our GBA product as we work towards underwriting profitability. Overall, the Casualty segment finished with a 93.7% combined ratio for the quarter. Now I will turn the call back over to Craig for some further comments.

Thank you, Jen. We continue to benefit from very good underlying results for a company. We're poised to take advantage of tighter capacity and a harder market. We believe there will be a flight to quality affecting relationships ranging from reinsurers, distribution partners, insurers, and underwriters. We have the financial strength, reputation, and underwriting expertise to benefit from any resulting market displacement. ROI is a great home for future employee owners who share our values of discipline, accountability, and ownership. I would be remiss if I didn't mention the large gain on the sale of Maui Jim this quarter. Maui has been a great investment for our company, and we will continue to remember the deep shared history of our two companies. Mahalo to the entire Maui Jim team. I also want to thank all of our associate owners for delivering again this quarter. Responsiveness following catastrophic events is where reputations are earned or forfeited. We can't stop natural catastrophes from occurring, but as owners, we realize that if we continue to take care of our customers, we will take care of our future. Thank you. Now, I'll turn it back over to the moderator, who will open up for questions.

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Matt Carletti at JPMorgan. Please go ahead; your line is open.

Hey, thanks. Matt Carletti at JMP. Good morning. A couple of questions. First on the accident loss ratio, I wanted to follow up on Jen's comments there. I think you mentioned that there was some impact from Hurricane Ian losses as well as one other item I didn't catch. It looks like it went up. If we look at nine months versus six months run rate, two to three points, is it? If we were to strip that out, would it be relatively unchanged kind of sticking at that 64, so that was on the first half?

Hey, Matt, it's Todd. I'll take that. I think the main factor is what you're observing from the catastrophe impact, that's really driving it. There can be slight variations between quarters. I would focus more on the year-to-date figures, and I think it was 65 from the Casualty underlying, which is about a point better than last year. So, I would really emphasize the year-to-date when you consider that. There can be some fluctuations between quarters, but the significant impacts come from those catastrophe losses.

Okay, great. That's helpful. And then just one other one, if I could. Net investment income took a nice step up in the quarter. Is that largely rates earning-related and therefore largely sustainable, or was there any kind of one-time event that might have given us a little benefit this quarter that we shouldn't repeat going forward?

Hey, Matt, it's Aaron. Thanks for the question. Yes, it's really just us putting money to work pretty consistently. Operating cash flow last year was very strong. We've seen investment income increase now, going back over the last four quarters on a comparative basis. So, it's really both a combination of new money yields being up consistently here in 2022, plus larger amounts of cash flow just being put to work, particularly in fixed income more than anywhere else.

Awesome. Great. Well, thank you for the call. Appreciate it.

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question comes from Greg Peters at Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning. This is actually Sid on for Greg. Just looking at the southeast property market and the current state of it and the outlook for reinsurance pricing and tightening capacity, could you guys just give an updated outlook for growth in the property business there, and if there's been any change on the outlook for that business?

Sid, this is Jen. The southeast property market and, in particular, Florida, remains a very open space to do business. There's a lack of capacity, and I think we're going to see more of that as we move towards January 1 and through the reinsurance renewal process. There are a number of MGAs in that space that are currently looking to negotiate their capacity for next year and I think are going to struggle through that process. This is the season of meeting with reinsurers, so we've attended several meetings, and the reinsurance market is looking to take some action here from a rate standpoint and also push on other terms and conditions such as retention. We would like to continue to take advantage of this market. I think you can see from our results in 2022 that, despite having a large event, we were still able to make an underwriting profit year-to-date in our E&S division. So, we'd like to continue doing that, but it will be dependent on what we can obtain here on January 1, and that's still in process. So it's yet to be determined.

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question comes from Mark Dwelle at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Yes, good morning. A few questions. First, with respect to the property market, you've talked in detail about how the market has tightened up. Is there any signs yet as to whether any other losses and the resulting hardening of the reinsurance market is spreading over to casualty lines at all? Or is it maybe too soon to tell?

Hey, Mark, this is Jen. I think it's too soon to tell. As we listen to the reinsurers talk about what they want to accomplish, they would like to see spillover, but we don't know if that's going to happen. From a primary standpoint, the issues that have been going on for years in terms of loss trends, frequency, severity, etc., are just continuing in that market. So there's nothing bleeding over that we can see from the E&S end at this point.

Second question, kind of just staying in that same general vein on casualty. You had commented regarding the DNO market that some of the pricing there had been softening. Can you give any additional color on what you think is causing that market to soften? I would have thought DNO is a kind of a textbook example of a social inflation type market that would be depressed in a period where markets are negative and adverse economic conditions, but seemingly that's not the case from a pricing standpoint.

Sure, Mark. I think the issue here is that we had three years of very significant rate increases, all over 20%. And the market, so a lot of people thought maybe they should get in and get some of that rate. We've had new entrants in the market. The other part of it is the number of available deals. If you think about how many IPOs are not occurring these days that used to be, there are fewer deals to get on. So there's a little bit less insurance being procured. Everyone's fighting for those accounts. I think the combination of those factors is causing the market to soften. That's what we're seeing.

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. I guess my third question, Todd alluded to the disposition or the utilization of the Maui Jim proceeds a little bit in his prepared remarks. Are you thinking about that from a net income perspective, a comprehensive income perspective, or an operating earnings perspective?

This is Todd, Mark. I think we consider all those factors, right? I mean, you're looking at all aspects. You're looking forward on what you think growth might be, and you're going to consider what the reinsurance market may be like. So, we do take a rating agency view of some of this. Some of it's GAAP-based and some of it's statutory-based. We have internal models that we utilize. It's really an all-in view on all of those aspects.

If we're thinking about a nearly $10 gain on Maui Jim, there would probably be a $10 special dividend associated with that, right? That would probably be too expensive of a way to think about it, in view of the way comprehensive income and operating income has behaved?

Hey, Mark. This is Craig. It was very much like Todd said. We're going to look at all the opportunities in front of us. Obviously, our preference is to put our capital to use. You've seen we've grown a bit, and we're going to have to do all that, as Todd talked about the modeling. We want to look at all that and then move forward and see what we think the market's opportunities are available, and then we'll have to make a decision. So, hopefully that's helpful.

Okay. I appreciate that clarification. Thanks.

Thank you very much for your question. Our next question comes from Meyer Shields at KBW. Please go ahead.

Perfect, thanks. I want to go back to the casualty segment. I completely understand Todd's comments about looking at year-to-date numbers. But there wasn't an increase in the year to date from call it 64 in the first half to 65 now. Can you talk us through what's changing the company's view?

I don't think our view is changing, Meyer. I mean, from an underlying core loss ratio standpoint, we don't have a different view. Again, I mentioned a little bit of noise you may get between quarters. I don't want to go down a rabbit hole on how unallocated loss adjustment expense may be attributed between current and prior years. But really, our view has not changed. So from a 60, is it a point higher than what you saw through the second quarter? It is, but the underlying view has not changed on our part.

Okay. That's how I mean, I'm happy to go into the rabbit hole, but I see what you're saying. The same question, though, if I can, on the expense ratio for casualty, that seemed high and surprised me, given both the cat losses and the underlying. I was hoping you could explain if anything unusual is going on there?

This is not that unusual. I mean, we did, and this crosses across all segments. We did have a one-time bonus impact related to the transaction. You're seeing that through policy acquisition, related expense, and additional home office expense. So nothing unusual. As mix changes, I guess I will mention that mix changes a little bit. Some of our small commercial, our personal umbrella, a few of those products as they grow, may have a marginally higher commission rate that could account for maybe half a point or less on the expense ratio. But nothing material at all, Meyer.

Okay, fantastic. Thank you so much.

Thank you very much for your question. At this time, there are no further questions. I'll now turn the conference over to Mr. Craig Kliethermes for some closing remarks.

Well, thank you. Thank you all for joining us. A pretty good quarter overall. I want to thank the entire RLI ownership team. Hopefully, we can finish strong, and we'll see you next year, I guess. Thank you.

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