Boston Beer Co Inc Q3 FY2024 Earnings Call

Greetings, and welcome to the Boston Beer Company Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce you to Mike Andrews, Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Thank you, Mike. You may begin.

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome. This is Mike Andrews, Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of the Boston Beer Company. I'm pleased to kick off our 2024 third quarter earnings call. Joining the call from Boston Beer are Jim Koch, Founder and Chairman; Michael Spillane, our CEO; and Diego Reynoso, our CFO. Before we discuss our business, I'll start with our disclaimer. As we state in our earnings release, some of the information we discuss and that may come up on this call reflects the Company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future. Such predictions are forward-looking statements. It's important to note that the Company's actual results could differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning facts that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the Company's most recent 10-Q and 10-K. The Company does not undertake to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I will now pass it over to Jim for some introductory comments.

Thanks, Mike. I'll begin my remarks this afternoon with a few introductory comments, and then hand over to Michael, who will provide his view of the business and the actions we're taking to position the Company for improvement in 2025. Michael will then turn the call over to Diego, who will focus on the financial details of our third quarter results, as well as our updated outlook for 2024. Immediately following Diego's comments, we'll open up the line for questions. I'd like to begin my remarks with an overview of the market environment. There continues to be noise in month-to-month volume trends in the alcoholic beverage industry. We expect near-term industry volume trends to continue to fluctuate month-to-month given the macroeconomic consumer environment. Importantly, we're seeing the pricing environment remains stable and we are achieving price increases of approximately 2%, which was at the high end of our prior guidance range. From a Boston Beer perspective, we mentioned on our last call that we under-shipped demand in the second quarter as trends improved late in the quarter, and we were not able to fulfill all orders. By the end of the third quarter, our wholesaler inventories normalized at approximately 5.5 weeks, with shipments and depletion trends year-to-date consistent at down 3%. We've narrowed our volume guidance for the full year to reflect three quarters of results and a range of outcomes for the fourth quarter, given the near-term consumer environment. From a long-term perspective, we continue to believe that there is a significant opportunity in the fourth category as lines continue to blur beyond the traditional three categories of beer, wine, and spirits, and consumers seek newness and variety. These fourth category beverages are typically sold in a can, need to be available in the cold box and are closer to beer in terms of pricing, margin structure and production requirements. We believe Boston Beer Company is well positioned to take advantage of this growth, given our proven track record of creating new products and getting them into the hands of drinkers through both our best-in-class sales force and wholesaler relationships. We have strong core brands and a strong innovation pipeline for 2025, including Sun Cruiser and Samuel Adams American Light. Our margin initiatives continue to show strong progress, with gross margin up 190 basis points year-to-date. The systems and infrastructure we've built to support a diversified portfolio are showing results and there is significant long-term margin opportunity ahead as we continue to execute on our productivity plans, launching margin-accretive innovation and return to growth. In summary, our priorities are to support our category-leading brands to improve market share, nurture the innovation pipeline in a disciplined manner, and improve our execution to unlock revenue opportunities and lower costs. We're focused on responding to and taking advantage of the trends we can control and implementing operating plans to position the Company well in 2025. The highly cash-generative nature of our business and our strong balance sheet allows us to invest to return to long-term growth while continuing to return cash to shareholders. We've generated over $200 million in operating cash flow this year and have a cash balance of $256 million at the end of the third quarter with no debt. Based on our view of long-term growth prospects for the Company and our philosophy of returning excess cash to shareholders, we've repurchased $191 million in shares year-to-date and recently expanded our share repurchase authorization by $400 million. To close, I'd like to thank our Boston Beer team, our distributors, and our retailers for their continued support. And now, I'll pass the call to Michael.

Thanks, Jim, and good afternoon, everybody. As Jim just mentioned, we're managing through some headwinds with respect to consumer demand in our categories. In the third quarter, we were focused on rebuilding our inventories, in-market execution for the remainder of the summer season and continuing to refine our internal processes. The work we are doing now to improve end-to-end execution will make us better operators and ultimately lead to more sustainable long-term growth. Our strategic priorities that I discussed on our last call remain unchanged. We'll be focused on nurturing our core brands, developing margin-accretive innovation, leveraging the capital investments we have made in our brewers and IT systems, and driving efficiency in operating expenses. There is significant opportunity ahead for our company despite the current headwinds. As I've reviewed the business over the last two quarters and worked through our operating plans for next year with the team, I see multiple opportunities. First, we will be focused on opportunities to gain market share across the core portfolio. Taking back share will happen over time, but the opportunities are there. Second, we'll continue to adjust the portfolio in certain cases like Truly; we have had too many line extensions. Going forward, we will be more strategic as we add more styles. Third, we will use our powerful innovation engine in a disciplined manner, as I discussed in our last call. Finally, we'll continue to modernize our supply chain and execute on the multi-year productivity initiatives across our three buckets: procurement savings, waste and network optimization, and brewery performance. All these efforts together are designed to position the Company for improvement in operational and financial performance in 2025 and to drive quality long-term revenue growth and higher profitability. I'll now provide some color on the brand portfolio. Beyond beer, we play in hard tea, where we have the clear number one hard tea brand in Twisted Tea. The number two player in Hard Seltzer is Truly. We have high-quality premium canned cocktail products in the early stages of brand building with Sun Cruiser and Dogfish Head canned cocktails, as well as our partner, Hard Mountain Dew. In beer, Samuel Adams has a strong craft legacy, and we continue to focus on our seasonals, adding more on-premise taps and our new light beer innovation, Samuel Adams American Light. We continue to see hard tea as an attractive category, with category volume up 18% and dollars up 20% year-to-date through the third quarter in measured channels. Twisted Tea is a brand that was built over many years in a high-quality way and has strong brand equity with an 85% market share. While many competitors have entered the category, the most successful competitive brand only has a low single-digit market share. Twisted Tea's growth has decelerated somewhat naturally as it must grow off a larger base and contends with the macro consumer environment. However, the category remains attractive, and we see multiple areas of growth for the brand. We've increased our investments behind Twisted Tea with our Twisted Tea college football program that continues to generate excitement for the brand through the fourth quarter. One of the largest opportunities is in points of distribution, particularly for Twisted Tea Light, which is highly incremental, and we are launching more distinct packaging that makes it easier to find on the shelf. Additionally, there is still under-penetration in certain consumer demographics. Higher ABV hard tea innovation is always an area of opportunity that is in its early stages with Twisted Tea Extreme performing well in the market with high repeat rates and plenty of room for distribution wins. Our vodka-based tea innovation Sun Cruiser, which was launched late in the summer season, is performing well in bringing new consumers to our hard tea portfolio. Sun Cruiser launched first in the New England and Atlantic regions and continues to expand to additional regions. Sales per point in the early off-premise regions continue to trend positively, and Sun Cruiser is also performing well in the on-premise channel. We're encouraged by the feedback from wholesalers, retailers, and drinkers, and would point out that Sun Cruiser's overall performance trends are not fully reflected in third-party data at this point due to a significant presence in non-measured channels. We expect Sun Cruiser to be an important addition to the portfolio long term but note that, from a timing perspective, we are now entering the lower seasonality months. The large opportunity for distribution wins is in the shelf resets that will occur in the spring of 2025. Turning to Hard Seltzer, we continue to see declines in the hard seltzer category, with Hard Seltzer category declining 11% in category volume in measured channels in the third quarter and Truly underperforming the category. As I mentioned on the last call, there's bifurcation with the light flavors performing ahead of bolder flavors, and we'll continue to focus the portfolio on those lighter flavors. The wild-berry 24-ounce can has grown year-to-date in measured channels with particularly strong growth in convenience stores. We believe there is an opportunity to regain share with our lighter flavors and continue our rotator pack strategy. There is also opportunity in the higher ABV segment, which is resonating with consumers and driving in single-serve. Truly Unruly, our 8% ABV offering, is showing promise and is expected to contribute to improving the trajectory of Truly. Overall, we are not satisfied with the performance of Truly, and we are taking steps to reposition the product portfolio and adjust our marketing strategy to improve the trajectory of the brand in 2025 and beyond. Regarding Hard Mountain Dew, we saw depletion trends turn positive in the third quarter, although off a small volume base. We're currently selling through our wholesaler network in states where we've transitioned from Blue Cloud and are continuing to work through regulatory approval and distribution agreements in additional states. We continue to believe there is an opportunity for Hard Mountain Dew across expanded pack sizes and channels, including convenience stores, but those efforts will take time and have a more positive impact on our 2025 results. For our Sam Adams brand, we'll support our seasonal offerings in our award-winning non-alcoholic Just the Haze, while focusing on expanding the successful launch of our distinctly American Graft Lager, American Light. American Light is made with high-quality American ingredients and recently earned the title of Best Lighter Beer in America in the World Beer Awards. The product is targeted to craft drinkers who want to drink light beer with quality ingredients and is enjoying promising consumer acceptance in its early markets of New England, Florida, and Texas. We pursued a measured launch strategy in test markets, starting in independence and moving into large format and on-premise. Based on the encouraging early reads, American Light will be expanding nationally in early 2025. In summary, we're working hard on supporting our core brands as well as supporting our innovation engine to drive volume and revenue improvements in a disciplined manner. In addition to our plans to improve volumes and market share, we're also continuing our efforts to modernize our supply chain and expand our margins. We're seeing good progress on our productivity initiatives across the three buckets of priorities that I have mentioned earlier: procurement savings, waste and network optimization, as well as brewery performance. These efforts allow us to realize gross margin expansion in the third quarter despite a soft volume environment. We expect the investments we've made in systems such as planning tools and automated customer ordering systems to enable continued progress on inventory management in 2025. Line efficiencies remain a work in progress and will take some time to achieve consistent and reliable performance, particularly in peak periods. The timing and ultimate amount of volume that we insource will be dependent on our progress in our own breweries as well as the product and geographic mix of our sales. In addition to gross margin, we're focused on investing in our brands. We are committed to improved execution and coordination of our brand investments and sales programs to maximize brand impact through to consumers. Regarding non-advertising selling and brand costs, we're continuing our efforts to better align internal costs with revenue. We're committed to supporting all of our brands with appropriate levels of advertising investment for both brand awareness and in-store marketing. Our investments are across the portfolio, with a particular emphasis on Twisted Tea, Sun Cruiser, and Hard Mountain Dew. To summarize, I believe there are multiple areas of opportunity ahead for Boston Beer. I'm pleased with the progress we are making to be more focused and that we have delivered gross margin expansion despite weaker volumes. We still have work to do in becoming sharper in our execution. We'll be spending the next few months finalizing our plans to position the Company for improved performance in 2025 and return to long-term high-quality growth. I look forward to discussing our 2025 operating plans and financial guidance with you in February on our fourth quarter earnings call. I'll now pass the call to Diego for a detailed review of the third quarter and our updated 2024 guidance.

Thank you, Michael. Good afternoon, everyone. Depletions in the third quarter decreased 3% and shipments decreased 1.9% from the prior year, primarily due to declines in Truly Hard Seltzer that were partially offset by growth in our Twisted Tea, Sun Cruiser, and Hard Mountain Dew brands. We began the quarter with an average of 3.5 weeks of distributor inventories on hand, which, as we discussed in our second quarter call, was lower than our target levels. As of September 28, 2024, distributor inventory was approximately 5.5 weeks on hand, which was slightly higher than our target levels of between four and five weeks. We expect to return to our target levels during the fourth quarter, which will be a slight headwind to our fourth quarter shipment volume. Revenue for the quarter increased 0.6% due to price increases and lower returns, partially offset by lower volumes. Our third quarter gross margin of 46.3% increased 60 basis points from the 45.7% margin realized in the prior year. Gross margin primarily benefited from price increases, procurement savings, and lower returns, which more than offset higher inventory obsolescence and increased inflationary costs. Excluding shortfall fees and third-party production prepayments, which we have discussed in prior calls, gross margin was 47.4%. Advertising, promotional, and selling expenses for the third quarter of 2024 decreased $4.6 million or 3% from the third quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower freight costs as a result of both improved efficiencies and lower volumes. Brand spending in the third quarter was consistent with prior years. General and administrative expenses increased $1.6 million or 3.7% year-over-year, primarily due to increased professional fees. In the third quarter, we recorded a $42.6 million noncash impairment charge or $2.49 per diluted share, primarily for the Dogfish Head brand that resulted from the Company's annual impairment analysis. The impairment determination was based on the latest forecast of brand performance, which was below our earlier projections. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2024, we will be amortizing the remaining intangible Dogfish Head brand asset of $14.4 million over a 10-year life, and we do not expect any future impairments related to the Dogfish Head brand. We reported non-GAAP EPS of $5.35 per diluted share, an increase of $0.68 or 15% compared to the third quarter of the last year. Both periods exclude noncash brand impairments. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher revenue and gross margins and lower freight costs. Now I'll discuss our 2024 guidance. Our fiscal week depletion trends for the first 42 weeks of 2024 have decreased 2% from 2023. As Jim mentioned in his remarks, we are narrowing our 2024 volume guidance to reflect the first nine months of performance and a range of outcomes for the remaining fourth quarter. As you model the remainder of the year, please keep in mind that the fourth quarter is typically our lowest absolute gross margin rate of the year. We now expect 2024 depletions and shipments to decrease low single digits versus our prior guidance of a decrease of low single digits to flat. We now estimate price increases of approximately 2%, which is at the high end of our prior guidance. Gross margin is expected to be between 44% and 45%, versus prior guidance of 43% to 45%, reflecting the progress we have made on delivering productivity. Contractual short sell fees and production prepayment amortization will have a negative impact on full year 2024 gross margins of between 160 and 180 basis points. As these contractual terms expire, we will reassess our capacity needs and commitments with our third-party production partners. Our investments in advertising, promotional and selling expenses will range from a decrease of $5 million to an increase of $15 million. This does not include any changes in freight costs for the shipment of products to our distributors. Our estimated tax rate will be 30%, which is higher than our prior estimate of 28.5%, due to the impact of the third quarter noncash brand impairment charge, which decreases estimated full year pretax income but did not significantly change our estimated full year nondeductible expenses. Our non-GAAP earnings per share guidance of $8 to $10 excludes the impact of the noncash brand impairment charge of $42.6 million or $2.49 per diluted share. This projection is highly sensitive to changes in volume projections and supply chain performance. In summary, the changes to our guidance reflect a somewhat softer volume environment, offset by strong gross margin performance. We've been able to maintain the midpoint of our prior EPS guidance while investing in our brands and absorbing a higher tax rate. Turning to capital allocation, we ended the quarter with a cash balance of $255.6 million and an unused credit line of $150 million, which provides us with the flexibility to continue to invest in our base business, fund future growth initiatives, and return cash to shareholders through our share buyback program. For the full year 2024, primarily due to the timing of spending on current projects, we expect capital expenditures to be between $80 million and $95 million, a decrease from our prior estimate of between $90 million and $110 million. These investments will be directed primarily to our own breweries to build capabilities and improve efficiencies. During the 39-week period ended September 28, 2024, and the period of September 30, 2024, through October 18, 2024, we repurchased shares in the amount of $176 million and $15 million. We recently increased our share repurchase authorization to $1.6 billion, which is an increase of $400 million. As of October 18, 2024, we had approximately $476 million remaining on the authorization. This concludes our prepared remarks, and now we'll open the lines for questions.

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. The first question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead with your question.

Thank you. Good evening. Just wanted to come back to how to think about 4Q. I know you've got the full year volume guidance that gives us a good deal of context on how to think about it. But you have been talking about some new distribution pipeline fill for Hard Mountain Dew driving some potential upside against sell-through. It sounds like the inventory build in 3Q more than makes up for that and maybe some of the other new innovation getting ready to go out in early 2025. Is that the right way to think about it? And can you just talk about some of the puts and takes besides just the current inventory level?

Yes. I think as we've laid out before, Q4 is our smallest quarter and therefore, very sensitive to volume moves. So we're currently on our 2025 plan right now, and we'll come back and talk about it next quarter. But as we look at that, we're analyzing what the launch dates are in different markets for Hard Mountain Dew and what the growth of Sun Cruiser will be at the beginning of the year. So, those would be the two branded-driven pieces that might change the volume between Q4 and Q1 a little bit. The third one is the inventory levels are a little bit high, not a lot, but that can drive a handful of points up and down. So those three elements are the reason why you see a wider range in Q4 due to the small size of Q4.

Okay. That's helpful. That makes sense. And can I just follow up on Twisted Extreme and Truly Unruly? You've got a few things that are going from a 5% to an 8% ABV with some of these extensions. I think you mentioned some competitive offerings that drove some of the thinking there. But is that also just a consumer seeking value and wants the best bang for their buck, or how do you think about just where the consumer's head is and how they approach that? What is the initial read on traction?

We're very pleased with the results of the product that we have in the market, and the consumer is reacting in a very positive way. So, it's probably a little bit of everything, but we see that definitely as an important part of our growth moving forward.

The next question comes from the line of Rob Ottenstein with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

Two questions. One, just wondering if you could give us any kind of early sense of how October looks and whether things are getting a little bit better? I understand some pricing came into the market in certain areas. Any reactions to that? And then second, if you could offer some more detail on Twisted Tea? In scanner data, it appears to have slowed a bit, velocities seem to be down, and I wondered what your diagnostic was for that. Maybe we're misreading the data, but that's what we're seeing. How do you think about the momentum of the brand going into 2025?

Perfect. So, on the first part, I think as we laid out, the last 42-week number shows a 2% decrease. So, it's a little bit better than year-to-date at the end of the quarter. That being said, just given the relative seasonality in the low side of Q4, I think it's a little too soon to tell, but it does look a bit better if you look at the two numbers we've laid out.

Yes. And on the second part of the question regarding Twisted Tea, we're working off a much larger base this year. However, it has been a year with significant competition entering the space, seeing the success we've had, and we’ve built this brand over a long period of time sustainably. We feel like what's ahead for us is to reclaim that long tail that had come in. Thus, we feel confident that going into next year, we'll be on track with Twisted Tea growth.

The next question comes from the line of Eric Serotta with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Hoping you could talk a bit about Sun Cruiser. Can you talk a bit about what your expectations are in terms of shelf space for next year? Where do you expect that space to come from in accounts that are able to sell small-batch and spirits-based products? Additionally, at the consumer level, what are you seeing in terms of interactions between Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea? Obviously, they're significantly incremental, but for the part that does overlap, what kind of trade-offs are you seeing at the consumer level? And then a quick follow-up.

We see it as an incremental proposition to Twisted Tea. We haven't seen any significant cannibalization of that franchise with it. We're looking at both from a product standpoint; it's a higher-margin product for us, which aligns with our strategy of introducing margin-accretive innovation. We're viewing this as taking from other vodka-based canned beverages. So, as you look around, you can see who the dominant players are in that space, and we feel confident that we can grow our business at the expense of others versus ourselves.

Great. And then just a quick follow-up for Diego on a housekeeping item. I think you mentioned higher obsolescence costs; what was that related to in terms of product and brand? What's your outlook for that going forward?

Yes. If you look at quarter-by-quarter, we're still aligned with what we anticipate, so it's not a key driver. I think as we transition some of the innovations to a lower piece, it's not a branded issue. The only specific thing in the quarter we called out was hops obsolescence, which came from us reassessing the types of beers going forward and rebalancing our hops portfolio. So, it's not brand-related; it’s hops-related.

The next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

I had a question on Truly. You mentioned you're not satisfied overall with Truly's performance. I would love more detail on some of your initiatives. First, you mentioned adjusting your marketing strategy; can you share any specifics? Second, you mentioned success with lighter flavors. What percentage of Truly's mix currently reflects lighter flavors? Finally, you also talked about potential pruning of the portfolio. What percentage of Truly's volume might you consider discontinuing?

Thanks, Bonnie. We've taken 2024 as a year to reassess the flavor profile for what's in front of the consumer, driving more lighter flavors. We're also seeing positive momentum with Truly Unruly. We're focusing on the convenience store channel. In terms of precise numbers, I wouldn’t break them down; I'll just say we're heading in the right direction. In terms of marketing spend, we're elevating it, and we also have a dynamic component that we plan to announce soon, likely in the fourth quarter, that we believe can help charge the business.

Okay. If you're unable to stabilize or revitalize Truly, do you think Twisted Tea and possibly Sun Cruiser next year will be enough to offset that and allow your volumes to return to growth? I'm trying to gauge how you see this if some of these efforts aren't successful for Truly.

Our expectation is that we're going to succeed with Truly. We anticipate that all of our businesses will grow. Our objective is for all of our businesses to reach their potential and drive our full portfolio. We see opportunities across our entire business.

The next question comes from the line of Filippo Falorni with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

I wanted to ask a broader question about the beer industry. We've clearly seen some softness this year into the summer but a bit of improvement when including the fourth category, as you mentioned. How are you seeing the evolution for the balance of the year and into next year? Do you think this was more of a temporary headwind in '24 or do you see any structural headwinds continuing into next year?

Yes, there are structural headwinds to the beer industry. None are particularly large. It's difficult to isolate and measure any one of them, but you've got factors such as cannabis, Ozempic, moderation, health concerns, and pricing that has exceeded inflation over the last four years. None of them is substantial, but collectively they contribute to a beer industry currently down about 2% to 2.5%. That's about where our depletions have been for the year. I don't see any of those necessarily disappearing, except for pricing. Currently, beer pricing appears to be below inflation even at 2%. However, we are able to recover our cost increases, and our prices are also down in real terms. I believe the beer industry will gain disproportionate volume from the fourth category, which aligns well with our market position. Regarding volume trends over 2024, the beginning of the year had positive results with a slowdown following Easter, but recently, we've noticed a slight upswing over the last six weeks. While these movements aren't massive, there has been improvement. October numbers are showing better trends. I lack a crystal ball to predict the future, but there are headwinds, though not major ones for the beer industry. I'm optimistic we can regain share of alcohol as the fourth category becomes more recognized. If we can successfully compete against wine and spirits for that volume, we could see favorable results.

The next question comes from the line of Bill Kirk with Roth Capital. Please proceed with your question.

I'm trying to understand the earnings outlook a bit better. I have year-to-date adjusted EPS at $10.76, and at the midpoint of the $8 to $10 guided range, that would imply almost negative $2 in EPS for Q4. Looking back at the model, that's one of the lowest Q4s I can see. Is that math right? Am I missing something in the comparables or something? If it is right, can you help us better understand the details that would drive such a loss in Q4?

The reason we have a range is that, as I mentioned before, Q4 is relatively small and therefore very susceptible to short-term volume movements. This sensitivity leads to greater variability in our earnings. This is also why we prefer not to analyze our business on a quarterly basis, as any shifts in inventory, orders, and product shipments can have a significant impact. We're still determining the timing of launching some innovations for next year, for instance. Additionally, Q4 typically involves shortfall fees, which directly affect our margin profile for that quarter relative to the rest. There are no underlying reasons that change the brand trends or one-time issues. It's merely due to volume sensitivity and the associated fees.

On that external capacity comment, year-to-date, it shows that 68% of your needs have been in-house production. I think the full-year goal was 76% in-house production. So, is there a significant step-up in production in Q4? Or is 76% still attainable?

First, we adjust our internal and external production based on where the orders come from. So, our target may be flexible. If we have more volume in California, for example, where we lack our own facilities, we'll shift production accordingly. Missing our goal doesn't indicate a positive or negative outcome but rather shows an adjustment based on order forecasts. As for Q4, we will significantly produce in-house due to naturally lower volume, permitting a higher percentage of internally produced goods. So yes, we expect a substantial portion in Q4, but being off the goal doesn't inherently carry negative connotations; it results from regional fluctuations and international growth.

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Jim Koch for any closing comments.

Thank you all for joining us this afternoon, and we look forward to discussing how the year closes out in February.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.