Safe Bulkers, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Safe Bulker's Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results. We have with us Mr. Polys Hajioannou, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Dr. Loukas Barmparis, President; and Mr. Konstantinos Adamopoulos, Chief Financial Officer of the company. Following this conference call, if you need further information on the conference call or on the presentation, please contact us at (212) 661-7566. I must advise you that this conference call is being recorded today. The archived webcast of the conference will soon be made available on Safe Bulker's website, www.safebulkers.com. Many of the remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. Actual results may differ materially from results projected from those forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the fourth quarter 2025 earnings release, which is available on the Safe Bulkers website, again, www.safebulkers.com. I would now like to turn the conference over to one of our speakers today, the Chairman and CEO of the company, Mr. Polys Hajioannou. Please go ahead, sir.

(No content from this speaker in the provided transcript)

Good morning to all. I'm Loukas Barmparis, President of Safe Bulkers, and I'm welcoming you to our quarterly results. During 2025, the dry bulk market experienced increased volatility primarily due to geopolitical factors. In the fourth quarter of 2025, we achieved $0.14 in adjusted earnings per share, and our Board has declared a $0.05 per share dividend to reward our common shareholders. The company maintains a careful balance between spot and time charter exposure, enabling us to seize market opportunities while safeguarding cash flow and ensuring a strong capital structure, which provides flexibility in our capital allocation. After a thorough review of the forward-looking statements, let's move on to the supply side dynamics. The bulk fleet is expected to grow by about 3% in 2026 deliveries, with the most significant growth anticipated in the Panamax and Supramax segments. The order book currently represents about 11.4% of the existing fleet. Dry bulk supply is projected to increase by 2.5% in 2026 and by 3% in 2027, adjusted for sailing. Asset prices remain high in alignment with the current market conditions. Recycling volumes are set to increase but remain low relative to historical averages. The dry bulk order book includes LNG and additional ammonia and hydrogen options. Nonetheless, the dual fuel order book is still small in the dry bulk segment. The delay in adopting the global fuel standard by the IMO is a pragmatic decision. The 20 Phase vessels ordered in 2020 are allowed dual operation until 2027, enabling them to use fossil fuels until alternative fuels are ready and economically viable, while also addressing stricter carbon intensity limits up to 2030 amid the potential adoption of new regulations. Our fleet currently comprises 2 Phase 3 vessels delivered since 2022, along with 26 vessels that feature advanced fuel characteristics. Approximately 80% of our fleet is built in Japan, compared to the global average of around 40%, emphasizing our commitment to quality and asset integrity. The superior quality of our ships incorporates improvements in fuel efficiency. Our fleet is older than the global average, which is 2.6 years. The situation is expected to improve as we take delivery of the remaining 8 Phase II vessels. By Q1 2029, we believe we will be well-positioned to compete based on our vessels' fuel efficiency as the shipping industry shifts toward longer-term contracts. When considering supply, it's important to note not only the scrapping rate but also the aging dry bulk fleet; many vessels are over 15 years old, and the trend of older vessels will lead to increased operational costs. Transitioning to demand, global GDP growth prospects for 2026 and 2027, as indicated by the IMF's January forecast, predict growth of around 3% in the coming years, accompanied by a gradual reduction in inflationary pressures. BIMCO forecasts dry bulk demand growth of 2% to 3% in 2026. Bulk volumes are expected to rise by 1% to 2% in 2026, with average shipping distances increasing by 0.5% to 1.5% annually, which will support ton-mile demand. Iron ore shipments are anticipated to grow by up to 1% in both 2026 and 2027. However, elevated Chinese port inventories, which are up 11% year-on-year, may dampen import demand in the first half of 2026. Coal shipments are projected to decrease by 1% to 2% in 2026, and the International Energy Agency expects global coal demand to decline by 1.4% from 2025 to 2027, with coal imports dropping by 4%. Chinese coal demand is expected to decrease by 1.5%, while India and other Asian regions continue to show growth. Although thermal coal trade is declining, coking coal remains relatively strong. Grains are projected to be the best-performing major bulk, with shipments estimated to rise by 5% to 6% in 2026 due to strong harvests in the U.S., EU, Argentina, Russia, and Brazil. However, China's push for greater self-sufficiency presents potential risks. Minor bulk growth is anticipated at 3.5% to 4.5% in 2026. Energy transition topics continue to be favorable, though growth in bauxite trade may decrease because of China's aluminum production. Fertilizer demand is growing but at a slower rate. China is a major factor influencing dry bulk. The wider economy continues to grapple with challenges stemming from a weak property sector, high inventories in key commodities, shifts in coal production, and increasing trade barriers. Steel demand in China is expected to weaken, despite elevated exports amid stricter regulations. Domestic production policies and strategies for import substitution, especially in coal, pose significant risks to seaborne trade. Although trade tensions between the U.S. and China have eased, they still contribute to global economic uncertainty. India is continuing to perform well and is forecasted to achieve the fastest growth among major economies, with a GDP increase of 6.4% in 2026. This expanding domestic market and manufacturing sector may positively influence dry bulk demand, particularly with vital infrastructure investments. In Japan, after securing a decisive supermajority in February, the government now has the political capital to implement a responsible and proactive fiscal policy aimed at moving the economy from prolonged deflation to sustainable growth, often described as “Abenomics,” that emphasizes aggressive fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand and maintain economic momentum. To sum up the supply equilibrium, supply growth is anticipated to align with demand in 2026. The freight market exhibited strength during the fourth quarter of 2025 and continues to appear healthy in early 2026. Regarding our Capesize class vessels, 7 were chartered under period time charters with an average remaining duration of 1.8 years and an average daily hire of $24,000, contributing to over $130 million in contracted revenue backlog from Capes alone. Moving to our quarterly highlights, our free cash flow has remained consistent over 17 consecutive quarters. We have returned $89 million in common dividends and $75 million in common stock, demonstrating our reliability in generating sustainable returns despite market fluctuations. In closing, supported by strong fundamentals, Safe Bulkers, with a $628 million market cap, holds a total value of $274 million. We retain significant resources with €163 million in cash, €220 million in unused revolving credit facilities, and €182 million borrowing capacity against our substantial order book of 8 new builds, primarily Japanese made. We prioritize having a young, technology-driven fleet with a robust balance sheet, manageable leverage, and low net debt per vessel of €8.4 million for a fleet that averages 10.4 years in age. Our resilient business model offers cash flow visibility of €164 million in revenue and healthy prospects for our sizable fleet that supports a meaningful annualized dividend position of 3.3%. I will now hand it over to our CFO, Konstantinos Adamopoulos, for the financial overview.

Thank you, Lucas, and good morning to everyone. During the fourth quarter of 2025, we operated in a slightly improved charter market environment compared to the same period in 2024, with increased revenues due to higher charter hires and slightly increased earnings from our stratified vessels. Moving on to Slide 12 with our quarterly financial highlights for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Our adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at $37.4 million compared to $40.7 million for the same period in 2024. Our adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter of 2025 was $0.14 calculated on a weighted average number of shares at 102.3 million compared to $0.15 during the same period in 2024, calculated on a weighted average of 106.4 million shares. During the fourth quarter of 2025, we operated 45 vessels on average, earning a time charter equivalent of $6,521 during the same period in 2024. Our daily vessel operating expenses increased by 13% to $5,686 for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $5,047 for the same period in 2024. Daily vessel operating expenses, excluding write-off delivery expenses, increased by 6% to $557 for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to $4,787 for the same period in 2024. Slide 13 provides a quick overview of our quarterly operational highlights for the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Continuing on to Slide 14, we present our balance sheet analysis, noting that assets are presented at their book value. Strong liquidity and robust cash reserves provide significant financial flexibility to navigate market volatility. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet supported by a solid equity base and conservative leverage levels. Our capital structure positions the company for sustainable long-term growth. We'll conclude our presentation in Slide 13, where we present our daily free cash flow for the 12 months of 2025, illustrating the company's ability to generate free cash flow, highlighting disciplined cost control and efficient vessel operations. I'd like to emphasize that based on our financial performance, the Board of Directors declared a $0.05 dividend per common share. The company maintains a healthy cash position of about $167 million as of February 13, with another $218 million available in revolving credit facilities, giving combined liquidity and capital resources of $385 million. We should also mention the contracted revenue of $178 million. This underscores our capacity to support our service, investment, and shareholder returns, while at the same time we enable fleet expansion to enhance company value and create long-term prospects for our shareholders. Thank you, and we are now ready for your questions.

Our first question is from Kam Moylan with Value Investors Edge.

You've made a lot of progress on the fleet renewal front in recent years, putting special emphasis on Kamsarmax new builds. When looking at your overall fleet pro forma for the new build additions, the Cape size does matter, is there any appetite for new orders going forward? Or is it now with second-hand pricing difficult to justify based on your expectations?

Yes, thank you. The price of second-hand vessels is rising currently, but the problem is the lack of high-quality tonnage available for sale. There are no quality vessels built in Japan or even in China available for purchase. The reason is that market prospects look quite positive. We had a very strong Q1, and people are holding onto their assets to capitalize on the improved market. Therefore, the only option for a company like ours that needs to have quality tonnage and a sustainable future program is to look into shipyards. However, that task is not easy because most shipyards are fully booked until 2028, which means we have to look at 2029 for deliveries. This has been our approach in the last quarter.

Yes, that's helpful. I also wanted to ask about the time charter market. Have you seen increasing appetite from charterers for 2 to 3-year contracts on Kamsarmaxes? And secondly, based on current quotes, would you favor index-linked exposure or fixed coverage?

Yes. There is no interest in 2- or 3-year contracts. The market is just starting its improvement after the past few quarters. You have to remember that last year was very challenging, especially in the first half, filled with discussions about tariffs that began in September '24 and lasted until July 2025, when we started stabilizing some of these issues within a few countries. We endured about 10 months of market depression, but the situation began to change in the second half of 2025, and we started seeing positive momentum. Currently, many charterers can commit to a 12-month period charter. For 2- or 3-year contracts, we need better market visibility over the next 2 to 3 quarters before we can see those charters materializing. For now, I would say that you could easily fix 6 to 12-month contracts, but longer-term charters will only come after we observe sustained market strength. Regarding the inflation of index versus fixed rates, I would prefer a fixed rate. While charters might attempt to avoid index in a rising market, we are comfortable securing a good return at fixed rates. Currently, there are one-year deals in the market approaching $18,000 or $19,000 a day, which is a favorable starting point for several ships.

The $18,000 to $19,000 per day would be for ECO and scrubber, right?

No, that would be for Kamsarmaxes; they don't utilize any scrubbers. The scrubbers you find on Capesize bulk carriers are primarily used for larger vessels. Therefore, for Kamsarmaxes, it's not viable to fit a scrubber due to their smaller consumption.

With no further questions, I would like to hand the conference back over to management for closing remarks.

Thank you very much for attending this conference call regarding the last quarter of the financial results of 2025, and we are looking forward to discussing with you again in our next quarterly results. Thank you very much, and have a good day.

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.