STMicroelectronics N.V. Q4 FY2023 Earnings Call

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the STMicroelectronics Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Live Webcast. I am Moira, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference has been recorded. The presentation will be followed by a Q&A session. The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Celine Berthier, Group Vice President Investor Relations. Please go ahead, madam.

Thank you, Moira, and good morning. Thank you, everyone, for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results conference call. Hosting the call today is Jean-Marc Chery, ST's President and Chief Executive Officer. Joining Jean-Marc on the call today are Lorenzo Grandi, Chief Financial Officer; President of Finance, Purchasing, ERM and Resilience; and Marco Cassis, President of Analog, MEMS and Sensor Group and Head of STMicroelectronics Strategy, System Research and Applications and Innovation Office. This live webcast and presentation materials can be accessed on ST's Investor Relations website. A replay will be available shortly after the conclusion of this call. This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risk factors that could cause the results to differ materially from management expectations and plans. We encourage you to review the safe harbor statement contained in the press release that was issued with the results this morning and also in ST's most recent regulatory filings for a full description of these risk factors. Also, to ensure all participants have an opportunity to ask questions during the Q&A session, please limit yourself to one question and a brief follow-up. I'd now like to turn the call over to Jean-Marc, ST's President and CEO.

Thank you, Celine. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining ST for our Q4 and full year 2023 earnings conference call. Let me begin with some opening comments. Starting with Q4. Our net revenues of $4.28 billion decreased 3.2% year-over-year and 3.4% sequentially. Gross margin was 45.5%. Revenues and gross margin were slightly below the midpoint of the guidance, with higher revenues in personal electronics, offset by a softer growth rate in automotive. Operating margin was 23.9% and net income was $1.08 billion. Looking at full year 2023, net revenues increased 7.2% to $17.29 billion, driven by strong demand in automotive and to a lesser extent, industrial, partially offset by lower revenues in Personal Electronics. Gross margin was 47.9%, up from 47.3% in full year 2022. Operating margin was 26.7%, compared to 27.5% in full year 2022. Net income increased 6.3% to $4.21 billion. We invested $4.11 billion in net CapEx, while delivering free cash flow of $1.77 billion. During Q4, our customer order bookings decreased compared to Q3. We continue to see stable strong demand in Automotive. There was no significant increase in Personal Electronics and further deterioration in industrial compared to Q3. We have a solid backlog for the year, both in Automotive and in all our engaged customer programs. In Industrial, where we are seeing a strong inventory correction, we have a much lower backlog than when we entered in 2023. For Q1 2024, at the midpoint, our first quarter business outlook is for net revenues of $3.6 billion, decreasing by 15.2% year-over-year and 15.9% sequentially. Gross margin is expected to be about 42.3%. For the full year 2024, it will be impacted in the first half by this significant inventory correction in Industrial, with an expected significant sequential revenue growth in the second half. We expect this will be driven by a strong rebound in Industrial and in Computer Peripherals, continued growth in Automotive, and in Communication Equipment and the usual seasonality in Personal Electronics. In 2024, we plan to invest about $2.5 billion in net CapEx and we will drive the company based on our plan for full year 2024 revenues in the range of $15.9 billion to $16.9 billion. Within this plan, we expect a gross margin in the low to mid-40s. Now let's move to a detailed review of the first quarter. Both revenue and gross margin came slightly below the midpoint of our guidance by 40 and 50 basis points, respectively. This was mainly due to higher revenues in Personal Electronics, offset by a softer growth rate in Automotive compared to expectations. On a sequential basis, Q4 revenues decreased 3.4% with ADG increasing 1.7%, AMS stable, and MDG decreasing by 13.3%. On a year-over-year basis, net revenues decreased 3.2%. ADG revenues increased 21.5%. IMS revenue decreased 25.8%, mainly reflecting lower revenues in Personal Electronics. This includes the impact of the change in product mix in an engaged customer program in Personal Electronics that I first mentioned last January. MDG decreased 11.5% on accelerated demand deterioration in Industrial, mainly impacting our general purpose MCU business. Year-over-year, sales decreased 0.4% to OEMs and 9.2% to distribution. Gross profit was $1.95 billion, decreasing 7.3% on a year-over-year basis. Gross margin was 45.5%, decreasing 200 basis points year-over-year due to higher input manufacturing costs, unused capacity charges, and negative currency effects net of hedging, partially offset by the combination of sales prices and product mix. Fourth quarter operating income decreased 20.5% to $1.02 billion. Q4 operating margin was 23.9%, down from 29.1% in the year-ago period. With ADG at 31.9%, IMS at 14.8%, and MDG at 28%. Q4 2023 net income was $1.08 billion compared to $1.25 billion in the year-ago quarter. Both Q4 2023 and Q4 2022 included one-time non-cash income tax benefits of $191 million and $141 million, respectively. Earnings per diluted share were $1.14 compared to $1.32. Let's now discuss our full year results, starting with the business dynamics. In Automotive, we again saw strong demand across all geographies, driven by increasing semiconductor pervasion and structural transformation. The year was also positively impacted by inventory replenishment and a high level of capacity reservation fees. In 2023, we continued to execute our strategy supporting car electrification. With silicon carbide products, our revenue for the year was $1.14 billion, a growth of more than 60% versus 2022. We finished the year with around 160 awarded projects spread over about 100 customers. This continues to give us confidence in our silicon carbide growth ambitions towards $2 billion in revenue in 2025. Wins included important supply agreements for Automotive as well as a collaboration with Airbus for aircraft electrification. We progressed as planned on our technology roadmap. In car digitalization, we saw continued design win momentum with our latest generation of automotive microcontrollers across applications such as software-defined vehicle architectures and car electrification systems. In ADAS, we continued working closely with our long-time customer and partner, Mobileye. In Industrial, during 2023, demand was still strong, especially in Power and Energy, factory automation, robotics, and industrial infrastructure. Towards the end of Q3, we saw a progressive weakening of demand accelerating during Q4. In power and energy management applications such as electric vehicle charging stations, renewable energy systems, and factory automation, we had a broad range of design wins. We further strengthened our embedded processing solution leadership with our STM32 microcontroller and microprocessor families and related ecosystem, introducing many new products and tools. We were again ranked as the number one choice in the AspenCore survey of embedded processing solution developers. During the year, we had a strong focus on Edge-AI. We announced and provided updates on multiple hardware products, including microcontrollers, microprocessors, and smart sensors. We announced the world's first microcontroller Edge-AI Developer Cloud and held our first ST Edge-AI summit online with over 2,000 attendees and participation from many customers and partners. They will announce the ST Edge-AI suite, a comprehensive ecosystem for Edge-AI using ST hardware, including our Nano Edge-AI studio. We progressed with sensors for industrial applications, introducing new MEMS and optical sensors suitable for industrial robotics and embedded vision applications. In Personal Electronics and computer peripherals, market demand remained weak in 2023, while communication equipment demand remains solid in our focus areas. In Personal Electronics, we continue to be successful with our focused approach, winning sockets in flagship devices with sensors, wireless charging, Dutch display controllers, and secure solutions. In communication equipment, our radiofrequency communication business delivered strong results. We continue to progress well with engaged customer programs in satellite and cellular communication infrastructure, including with the next generation of products for SpaceX Starlink. Let me now share a summary of our main 2023 manufacturing initiatives. We continue to transform our manufacturing base to enable our future growth and drive profitability with the expansion of our 300-millimeter capacity and a strong focus on wide bandgap semiconductors. In silicon carbide, we continue to ramp our front-end device production in our Catania and Singapore facilities, and we increased back-end manufacturing capacity in our sites in Morocco and China. We also started production in our new integrated silicon carbide substrate manufacturing facility in Catania, marking a significant step in our silicon carbide vertical integration strategy. We also announced a joint venture with Sanan Optoelectronics for high-volume 200-millimeter silicon carbide device manufacturing in China. Production is expected to start in Q4 2025. These are important moves to further scale our global silicon carbide manufacturing operations and will be key enablers of the opportunity we see to reach above $5 billion in silicon carbide yearly revenues by 2030. We also advanced with our 300-millimeter capacity expansion plans. In Agrate, Italy, our new 300-millimeter wafer fab was qualified for production and capacity of slightly more than 1,000 wafers per week was installed as planned. In June, we announced the conclusion of the three-party agreement for a new 300-millimeter semiconductor manufacturing facility in Crolles among the state of France, Global Foundries, and our company, as approved by the European Commission. These initiatives are aligned with our sustainability strategy and our commitment to sustainable manufacturing in terms of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, air and water quality. We are on track to achieve our carbon neutrality goal for Scope 1, 2, and partially Scope 3, along with our goal of 100% renewable energy by 2027. To further this goal, we announced in November the signature of a 15-year power purchase agreement for renewable energy for our operations in Italy with ERG, a leading European independent energy producer. We also continue to work closely with external bodies and maintain our strong presence in major sustainability indices. Looking now at our full year 2023 financial performance in greater detail, net revenues increased 7.2% to $17.29 billion. On a year-over-year basis, automotive revenues grew 33.5%, industrial was up 11.4%, communication equipment and computer peripherals decreased 4.2%, and personal electronics was down 25.1%. By end market, automotive represents about 41% of our total 2023 revenues, industrial about 30%, personal electronics about 29%, and communication equipment and computer peripherals about 10%. By customer channel, sales to OEMs and distribution represented 66% and 34%, respectively, of total revenues in 2023, similar to the split in 2022. By region of customer region, 37% of our 2023 revenues were from the Americas, 30% from Asia Pacific, and 33% from EMEA. Looking at the sales performance by product group, ADG grew 31.5%, driven by growth both in Automotive and Power & Discrete. AMS revenues decreased by 18.7%, with lower revenues in the three subgroups. MDG revenues increased 3.9%, with revenue growth in radio frequency communications and were substantially flat in the microcontroller subgroups. Gross margin increased to 47.9% for 2023 compared to 47.3% for 2022, possibly driven by the positive impact of the concern of product mix and pricing, partially offset by higher input manufacturing costs and unused capacity charges. In 2023, operating margin decreased to 26.7% compared to 27.5% in 2022. By product group, ADG operating margin increased to 31.8% from 24.6%. IMS operating margin decreased to 17.3% from 25.2%. And MDG operating margin decreased to 33.8% from 35%. Net cash from operating activities increased 15.2% in 2023, totaling $5.99 billion, after investing $4.11 billion in net CapEx in 2023 compared to $3.52 billion in 2022. Our free cash flow increased 11.3% to $1.77 billion. Inventory at the end of the year was $2.7 billion compared to $2.58 billion in 2022. Days sales of inventory at third hand was 104 days compared to 114 days at the end of Q3 2023 and 101 days at the end of the previous year. Cash dividends paid to stockholders in 2023 totaled $223 million. In addition, during 2023, ST executed share buybacks totaling $346 million under our current share repurchase program. ST's net financial position of $3.16 billion at December 31, 2023, reflected total liquidity of $6.08 billion and total financial debt of $2.93 billion. Now let's move to our plan for the full year 2024. For Q1 2024, at the midpoint, our first quarter business outlook is for net revenues of $3.6 billion, decreasing by 50.2% year-over-year and decreasing 15.9% sequentially. Gross margin is expected to be about 42.3%. For the full year 2024, we plan to invest about $2.5 billion in net CapEx, and we will drive the company based on our plan for full year 2024 revenues in the range of $15.9 billion to $16.9 billion. Within this plan, we expect a gross margin in the low to mid-40s. As mentioned earlier, the first half of 2024 will be impacted by a significant inventory correction in Industrial. In the second half of the year, we expect significant sequential revenue growth, driven by a strong rebound in industrial and computer peripherals, continued growth in automotive and communication equipment, and the usual seasonality in personal electronics. At the midpoint of our full year 2024 revenue indications, we expect mid-single-digit year-over-year growth in automotive. Excluding the impact of capacity reservation fees and a specific customer 2023 inventory replenishment effect, this will correspond to low double-digit year-over-year growth. We expect Industrial to return to high single-digit year-over-year growth in the second half of 2024 after a significant decline in the first half. In personal electronics, we expect to grow revenues sequentially in the second half, in line with the usual seasonality. In communication equipment and computer peripherals, we expect to grow revenues both sequentially and year-over-year in the second half, driven by our engaged customer programs in both the communication and computer markets. To conclude, following several years of revenue growth and increased profitability, we see 2024 as a transition year. We are adapting our plans according to market dynamics, while continuing to execute on our established strategy and operating model, continuing to strongly focus on automotive and industrial as a broad range supplier and being selective in our approach in personal electronics and communication equipment and computer peripherals. Before answering your questions, I would also like to mention that on January 10, 2024, we announced that we are reorganizing our product groups. ST will be organized in two product groups split into four reportable segments, and the existing sales and marketing organization will be complemented by a new application marketing organization by end market implemented across all regions. This new organization implies a change in reporting, which will apply from January 1, 2024. We will now report revenues and operating income for the four new reportable segments. Thank you, and we are now ready to answer your questions.

We will begin the question-and-answer session. First question is from Francois Bouvignies from UBS. Please go ahead.

Hi. Thank you very much. I have two quick questions. The first one is about Automotive. You mentioned that you expect mid-single-digit growth for the full year while production is flat, and three months ago, Jean-Marc, you were forecasting high-single-digit or significant growth for Automotive. It seems there is a deterioration on the Automotive side. My question is, what kind of inventory correction do you anticipate with this plus 5% figure? When we look at TI recently, they mentioned a correction in Automotive with basically no growth or even negative growth in 2024. We also heard from Tesla last night, which didn’t provide guidance for 2024, and Mobileye is facing a significant inventory correction. So, is this plus 5% conservative, or could the inventory correction be more significant as we look into 2024? My second question is about silicon carbide. Could you provide some guidance for 2024 regarding revenues, what you ended up with in 2023, and what you expect for 2024? That would be very helpful.

Change, okay, between October and January for Automotive is about one important customer communicating about inventory in ADAS. So this is a change. That's the reason why, okay, to give color on Automotive, I really would like to confirm that we have to the 2024 year, let's say, cleaning from this effect of, let's say, inventory replenishment we had in 2023 in ADAS and the capacity fee reservation, because on automotive, yes, I confirm to you that year 2024, year 2023 as reported, we will grow mid-single-digit, but clean from this effect of strong inventory replenishment for ADAS in 2023. And the capacity reservation fees that are decreasing in 2024 because, okay, we are exiting capacity overloading, the growth on Automotive will be low-double-digit, which is basically consistent with the indication we have about production of light vehicles, which are slightly above 90 million vehicles in 2024, which is consistent with the number of electric vehicles worldwide that will be produced in the range of 14 million to 15 million vehicles. And of course, okay, the continuous permission of, let's say, semiconductor electronics. But this in a year where, clearly, we have no more booster linked to inventory replenishment or capacity fee reservation. Again, I would like to repeat that for ST, the only difference we see October to January is related to ADAS. For then about silicon carbide, about silicon carbide, okay, our plan will drive ourselves in 2024 is between $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion in revenues.

That's great, Jean-Marc. I would like to follow up on the underlying growth of the automotive sector, which is well understood. However, do you think it would make sense to have a buffer for inventory corrections at this point? I'm referring to inventory corrections at the semiconductor level, as last year there was a significant increase in inventory from a low base. This situation makes the base effect technically negative from the semiconductor inventory perspective. Do you see what I mean?

Yes, yes, exactly now. We absolutely don't see an automotive what we see on industry only because on Industrial, this is what is happening. Again, on Automotive, where we see a pocket of inventory corrected is on ADAS. That has been pretty well communicated.

Great. Thank you so much.

Thank you very much, Francois. Next question, please, Moira.

The next question is from Jerome Ramel from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have a quick question, Jean-Marc. The guidance you provided for the full year, along with the Q1 guidance, indicates that the second half of this year could be around 20% higher than the first half. I'm curious why the gross margin is expected to be at 42.3% in Q1 and not show a significant improvement or align with the full-year average, since you mentioned the mid-range would be 42.5%. Given the strong revenue growth anticipated in the second half of this year, I'm trying to understand why Q1 has such a low gross margin of 42.3%, especially considering the robust revenue recovery projected for the second half, with the average for the full year only expected to be in the low to mid-40s.

Thank you, Jerome. So I pass the question to Lorenzo.

Good morning, everyone. Regarding the gross margin, the first half of the year will definitely be affected by significant negative impacts from unloading charges. This is clear. In fact, this quarter, the impact on our gross margin will exceed 200 basis points. Additionally, we need to take into account the effects of our ramp-up in 300-millimeter production in Italy during 2024, which will particularly affect the first half. However, in the second half of the year, we anticipate a substantial increase in our gross margin when we look at the midpoint of our revenue projections. Even though unloading charges will decrease significantly in the latter half of the year leading to a rise in gross margin, we still won't reach optimal manufacturing efficiency at that time. Nevertheless, we expect to finish the year above the midpoint, specifically above 44% to 45%. This year will be a transitional one for our gross margin.

Okay. Thank you. And maybe a follow-up on costs. How should we model OpEx for this year?

This year, we think that our OpEx will stay substantially flat when we look at the sequential in Q1, but there will be some increase because definitely, you see there is some inflation. As usual, there will be some salary increase. This is obvious. We think that we will increase our revenue in the year range of between 3% to 4% compared to 2023.

OpEx.

Yes. And just that usually, we talk about net OpEx, so including also the other income and expenses. And here, our other income and expenses will help somewhat to keep our OpEx increase not too high because we forecast at this point to be well above the $100 million range with a positive impact on our other income and expenses.

Okay. Thank you. Perfect.

Thank you, Jerome. Next question, please.

The next question is from Gianmarco Bonacina from Equita. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning. Just a little bit more color, you gave an outlook for the full year on the verticals. Could you give us an outlook on the first quarter in particular, if you expect Automotive to show year-over-year growth in Q1 and the net of product?

Let me provide a brief summary of our expectations for the full year 2024. If we adjust our results for 2023, particularly regarding the optical module I have mentioned before and the inventory replenishment for ADAS that we accomplished in 2023, considering available capacity, we anticipate a decline in capacity financial reservations in 2024 as expected. If we use 2023 as a benchmark, we are looking at about $800 million in revenue that won’t repeat in 2024. Therefore, at the midpoint of our guidance, which is 16.4, we should compare this to approximately 16.5% instead of the 17.3%. The overall trend is straightforward: the automotive sector is projected to grow by 13%, contributing around $750 million to $800 million, which will be fully counterbalanced by the inventory correction in the industrial sector, which is in a similar range. And then, Personal Electronics and Computer Equipment and communication, okay, will be basically flattish, which is coherent with a very soft increase in the smartphone market in 2024 as reported by some analysts. As you know, there is no impact, okay, from the 5G because ST is not present on radio frequency. And then Communication Equipment and Computer Peripheral, for us, we have a clear strong growth with our engage customer program in satellite communication. And this is offset by a legacy exit of our business. So this is overall takeaway for the company. So I repeat, we have to clean by US$800 million with clear revenue that will not be repeated. Automotive will grow US$800 million, 13%, offset by a strong inventory correction in H1 by Industrial. Personal Electronics and Communication Equipment and Computer Peripheral, basically flattish. So this is, okay, we can classify at the midpoint of the range we indicated over revenue in 2024. I hope I am clear.

Okay. Thanks a lot. Just a quick follow-up on your midterm model. Can we assume that, especially on the gross margin side, the current transition here doesn't have any impact on your ability to achieve the 50% gross margin in the midterm? Thank you.

It’s clear that looking at our market positioning, our strength, our operating model, we confirm the model. Clearly, we have just to have a look in detail of the implication of this transition year, but we confirm the model.

Thank you very much. Next question please, Moira.

The next question is from Joshua Buchalter from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Yes. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I was hoping you can maybe expand on your visibility into the back half ramp. I mean in particular, in Industrial. Generally, when you're in an inventory direction and lead times are coming down, it's hard to get a great grasp. So maybe you could provide some anecdotes of what you're seeing that's driving the sharp rebound in Industrial in the back half, including any details on how cancellations or bookings are trending underneath in the near term? Thank you.

Clearly, the signal now we see after having seen in 2023 in the first half, as I mentioned, the acknowledgment of customers that the lead time of semiconductor, okay, reducing clearly. In October, okay, we shared with you that when we have seen September bookings, not at the expected level. We discussed with our customers and all of them, okay, said, "Well, we are revisiting our sales and operating plan because, okay, our own end demand is weakening, except power energy for infrastructure. But what was related to construction, residential, okay, including factory automation, robotics, and of course, okay, what is consumer, all the customers and distributors were really assessing their end demand that was weakening and their inventory level. Well, clearly, okay, the signal of Q4 booking shows that we are in the inventory correction mode. By the experience, inventory correction, okay, lasts four to five quarters, we can say that it has started in Q3, the end of Q3. That's the reason why, okay, we expect that this inventory correction will end by the end of Q2. It could be slightly extending to Q3; let's monitor it, okay. It's possible. But we are convinced discussing with our customers that this inventory correction will end by the end of Q2. Therefore, we have built a plan that is backloaded for Industrial, H2 versus H1. And that's the reason why also today, our backlog visibility on Industrial is pretty low. And that's the reason why, okay, we have provided a revenue range of $1 billion between $15.9 million to $16.9 million. But at the end, the feedback we are receiving is that we are facing an inventory correction that should end in Q2 and expect a rebound in H2.

Thank you for all that color. And I guess as we go through this period of digestion, any way to quantify where the channel is at and where it needs to be? And any changes in the pricing environment with your customers as you go through the digestion? Thank you.

No, pricing is going back to what we classify as normal, which is low single digit, okay? We don't see, okay, price pressure specifically. It's going back to normal. Now it's an inventory correction. I think, okay, we can classify that many customers in the field of the Industrial market have overestimated to a certain extent their end demand dynamic in 2023 and restarting in 2024, they continue to order, okay, at the level of the backlog we received at the end of 2022 and first half of 2023. And now they acknowledge that they have to adjust because the end demand is not at the expected level or this kind of adjustment again has been happening over the last three to four quarters, starting in Q3 should end in Q2.

Thank you.

Thank you very much, Josh.

The next question is from Lee Simpson from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Thank you for the opportunity. I want to follow up on the previous question. When examining the inventory adjustment for Industrial, it seems that a significant portion consists of general-purpose microcontrollers, primarily moving through distribution channels. Therefore, I consider this a typical inventory correction. However, do you think there's a chance this could shift closer to the end of Q1 instead of Q2, possibly leading to slight improvements in that sector during Q2? Additionally, could you clarify your comments about the automotive market? I believe you mentioned a high single-digit improvement for Industrial in the second half. Is that a half-on-half increase, as it doesn’t seem plausible to be year-on-year?

First of all, the over inventory is, let's say, of course, impacting the general purpose microcontroller, because this is the key semiconductor device in any Industrial system, but as well sensors, MEMS as well general purpose analog and some power switch or power driver, so discrete. So this is okay, a bit more than that. Why maybe it is a little bit, let's say, more visible on the microcontroller, because do not forget that Industrial customers in 2022 have been heavily hit by the Automotive. Okay, many semiconductor companies have been forced to allocate more to Automotive because of the fantastic growth of Automotive at the detriment of Industrial. So it is clear that the Industrial market in 2023, they may cover them a little bit more than usual. And that's the reason why, okay, the inventory correction of MCU now in an economy, which is impacting the Industrial market is amplified versus the other semiconductor, let's say, devices. To your question about inventory correction lasting in Q1 or in Q2. Very honestly, now the key parameter we have to monitor is the order booking. Yes, if we see a strong acceleration during the course of Q1, we should expect early Q2, the market will rebound. But if we see, let's say, a softer restart in Q1 then accelerating in Q2, we will be in the scenario that I described a few minutes ago.

Great. That's very clear. Can you hear me?

Yes, yes, we can hear you.

All right. Thanks, Celine. I'm just curious also, you made mention there about the AGI ecosystem. I think none of us can deny that there's been some great acquisitions and bolt-ons to backstop some of your ambition there. But if we broaden this a little bit to include not just AGI but TinyML. I'm just very curious to understand your readiness and where the design wins are leaving you for a tick up late-2024 or is this more of a 2025 story with AGI and TinyML? Thank you.

It's more about a 2025 timeline for volume growth. Currently, we are testing MCU that incorporate hardware accelerators and neural networks. We're seeing significant demand, which is encouraging. We are preparing to have a strong boost in revenue starting in 2025 and beyond.

Thank you very much. I think we have time for two more questions. Moira, so next question please?

The next question is from Sandeep Deshpande from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I'm trying to clarify what you mentioned about automotive growth for the year. You noted a year-on-year growth of about 5%, but if we exclude something in 2023, it's 13%. Could you specify what you're excluding in 2023? Also, after that, I have a quick follow-up.

To be very clear, what I exclude in 2023 is the delta of capacity fee reservation 2024 versus 2023. Why? Because, okay, as expected, in 2024, we have a decrease in the capacity reversion fees from OEM, because we are exiting, okay, progressively from, let's say, capacity shortage. This must be, let's say, removed, because it is not product-related or production capacity related in ST. So this is the first delta. Then the second delta is a follow. In 2023, for ADAS, okay, one of our customers contractually has to build a certain amount of inventory to secure the car OEMs. We have not been capable to do it in 2021 and 2022 for all the reasons you remember, frame shortage, wafer, capacity limitations, and so on and so forth. Yes, in 2023, ST had the capability, with the investment we have done, to fulfill this, let's say, significant amount of device, fulfilling, okay, the contractual inventory that our customer has to do. Of course, this will not be repeated in 2024. And this was expected. So that's the reason why this is a very specific và unique case must be removed to compare a fair like-for-like and to share with you, okay, this market dynamic. When we make the math, clearly, as reported, our Automotive Verticals will grow mid-single digit as reported. Like-for-like, it will be low-double digit. So this is the math.

Understood. So then maybe a follow-up to that would be in terms of margin. I mean if you got capacity reservation fees last year, that would be very high, because if the capacity wasn't necessarily utilized by our clients, does that number you had in 2023 have an impact on your gross margin in 2024 because that doesn't exist in 2024? And is it going to have a long-term impact on your gross margin?

Yes, it's true that looking at the gross margin from last year, capacity reservation fees had a positive impact. Remember, in the first half of the year, our gross margin was approaching 50%, even though revenues were below $20 billion. This was an upside compared to our usual path to the 50% gross margin in our model. In 2024, capacity reservation fees are not going away because most contracts with OEMs extend through this year, and some into 2025. However, we expect a reduction in the dollar amount this year, which is still significant but not at last year's peak level. Overall, this was anticipated. The capacity reservation fees from contracts we've signed will remain in 2024 and still exist in 2025, although they'll gradually decrease. This is what we've factored in while assessing our gross margin.

Does it answer your question, Sandeep? We have time for one last question.

Thank you very much.

We have time for one last question.

The last question is from Stephane Houri from ODDO. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hello. I’m very lucky. Thank you very much. Question on the CapEx reduction, actually. Can you tell us where you are cutting your CapEx, what you are preserving? I understand that you have been always preserving the strategic project, but I have the feeling that a lot of your projects are strategic now. So if you can tell us where you are reducing your CapEx would be very helpful. Thank you.

We are continuing to prioritize our strategic projects, specifically in silicon carbide and GaN technology. This includes our campus in Catania and the capital expenditures we will consolidate in China through the joint venture we established with SanAn. Additionally, we are focusing on devices related to battery management systems and advanced BCD technology for power electrical powertrains. All technologies linked to the significant growth in communication equipment for satellites are also part of our capital allocation. The good news I want to share is our ability to adjust our capital expenditures from $4.1 billion down to $2.5 billion. This showcases our capacity to prepare our infrastructure for our goal of over $20 billion while adapting to the current market conditions I mentioned earlier.

Thank you very much.

Any follow-up, Stephane?

I apologize for the technical issues. What is your perspective on the revenue expected from silicon carbide this year? Additionally, could you discuss the level of client concentration for this year? Thank you.

It's $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion. So it's another, let's say, a significant increase in '24. So we are doing our best to deliver the $2 billion in '25. But I will not comment specifically on our main customer, but as I already shared, progressively, the weight of this very important customer for us is decreasing. Let's say, as far as timely and smoothly, we are introducing all the new program that I reported, okay, since many years to you. So yes, okay, it will decrease, but I cannot report specifically the weight of the customer. But it will decrease for sure, according to what we expect.

Okay. Thank you.

Okay. Thank you. This was the last question.

Would you like to conclude the call?

Yes, I think the time...

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